Part A Data

Incurred Losses for Reported Claims by Development Year

Accident Year 0 1 2 3 4
2010 21,146,830 8,312,433 1,662,487 1,681,107 446,876
2011 20,926,455 7,822,974 2,281,701 1,110,862 453,732
2012 21,825,318 8,538,857 2,732,434 688,232
2013 25,818,428 13,105,174 2,868,856
2014 23,571,061 9,605,762
2015 27,002,263

Enter the Lost Cost per Unit to Get the Results of the Regression Analysis

Accident Year X = Year - 2010 Loss Cost per Unit LN (Loss Cost) avg(x)
2010 0 60.16 4.0970 2.5
2011 1 59.01 4.0777 -2% 2.5
2012 2 61.33 4.1163 4% 2.5
2013 3 65.70 4.1852 7% 2.5
2014 4 68.00 4.2195 3% 2.5
2015 5 76.22 4.3336 12% 2.5
12 mo starting 7/1/2016 79.76 4.38 3.1%
4.8% Fit the line y = mx+b

Calendar Year 2014 tre 76.66 4.34 b

Calendar Year 2015 tre 81.90 4.41 m

(2,760,000) (4,140,000)
Large Claim adjustment + IBNR
2010 21,146,830 8,312,433 1,662,487 1,681,107 446,876
2011 20,926,455 7,822,974 2,281,701 1,110,862 453,732
2012 21,825,318 8,538,857 2,732,434 688,232 468,589
2013 23,058,428 8,965,174 2,868,856 1,286,485 501,795
2014 23,571,061 9,605,762 2,615,768 1,319,673 514,740
2015 27,002,263 10,555,054 2,961,140 1,493,916 582,703
Adjusted for large claims
IBNR estimate

Completion Ratios:
2010 0.393081761006289 0.05643340858 0.054017094 0.013623094
2011 0.373831775700935 0.07936507937 0.0357983193 0.014116502
2012 0.391236306729264 0.08998875141 0.0207946336
2013 0.388802488335925 0.08958566629
2014 0.407523510971787
2015
 Exposure Units Number of Claims
552,682 6,743
552,375 6,242
558,489 6,255
558,505 6,485
553,329 6,087
558,871 6,539

avg(y) y - avg(y) x- avg(x) (x- avg(x))^2 [y - avg(y)] x [x- avg(x)]

4.1715 -0.0745 -2.5 6.25 0.18632
4.1715 -0.0938 -1.5 2.25 0.14076
4.1715 -0.0552 -0.5 0.25 0.02762
4.1715 0.0136 0.5 0.25 0.00680
4.1715 0.0480 1.5 2.25 0.07196
4.1715 0.1620 2.5 6.25 0.40507

the line y = mx+b

4.05
0.0479

Total incurredAdjusted Exposure units

33,249,733 552,682
32,595,724 552,375
34,253,430 558,489
36,680,738 558,275
37,627,003 553,329
42,595,077 558,871
Enter the Lost Cost per Unit to Get the Results of the Regression Analysis

Accident YX = Year - Loss Cost pLN (Loss Cost) avg(x) avg(y) y - avg(y) x- avg(x) (x- avg(x))
2010 0 60.16 4.0970 2.5 4.1715 -0.0745 -2.5 6.25
2011 1 59.01 4.0777 -2% 2.5 4.1715 -0.0938 -1.5 2.25
2012 2 61.33 4.1163 4% 2.5 4.1715 -0.0552 -0.5 0.25
2013 3 65.70 4.1852 7% 2.5 4.1715 0.0136 0.5 0.25
2014 4 68.00 4.2195 3% 2.5 4.1715 0.0480 1.5 2.25

12 mo starting 7/1/2 77.07 4.34

-3.4%

Calendar Ye 77.70 4.35 4.08

Calendar Ye 76.66 4.34 0.0385
[y - avg(y)] x [x- avg(x)]
0.18632
0.14076
0.02762
0.00680
0.07196