2019 MATHEMATICAL METHODS (CAS) UNIT 4

SAC 3 – Probability Analysis Task

CAT
Reading time: 10 minutes
Writing time: 70 minutes

QUESTION AND ANSWER BOOKLET

Structure of Book
Number of Number of questions Number of

Questions to be answered marks

3 3 38

 Students are permitted to bring into the test room: pens, pencils, highlighters, erasers,
sharpeners, one approved CAS calculator, one scientific calculator, one bound reference,
rulers, a protractor, set-squares, aids for curve sketching.
Materials supplied
 Question and answer book.

Instructions
 Write your name and teacher in the space provided above on this page.
 All written responses must be in English.

Students are NOT permitted to bring mobile phones and/or any other unauthorised electronic
devices into the test room.
 Instructions
Answer all questions in the spaces provided.
In all questions where a numerical answer is required an exact value must be given unless
otherwise specified.
In questions where more than 1 mark is available, appropriate working must be shown.

Question 1 (10 marks)

Having talents in various types of music, Marcus and Jojo have been organising concerts to
perform their favourite songs. There are three types of concerts
Classical music: 20% of concerts are for this type and a profit of $15 is made per ticket

Country music: 70% of concerts are for this type and a profit of $10 is made per ticket

Pop music: 10% of concerts are for this type and a profit of $20 is made per ticket

This information can be displayed as a discrete probability distribution table

𝑋=𝑥 10 15 20
Pr⁡(𝑋 = 𝑥) 0.7 0.2 0.1

Where 𝑋 is the profit made per ticket in $

a. Show that this is a discrete probability distribution. 1 mark

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b. Find the expected profit made ($) per ticket. 2 marks

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c. Given 𝑉𝐴𝑅 (𝑋) = 3.32. Find 𝑉𝐴𝑅(2𝑋 − 1). 1 mark

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Every year Marcus and Jojo organise 20 concerts. Find the probability, correct to four decimal
places, that:

d. exactly 5 concerts are on classical music. 1 mark

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e. at least half of the concerts are on classical music. 1 mark

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f. the first two concerts are on classical music 1 mark

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g. only the first two concerts are on classical music 1 mark

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h. Find the minimum number of tickets required such that the probability of having at least
2 concerts on classical music is more than 0.7. 2 marks

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Question 2 (12 marks)

The duration T (in hours) that Marcus and Jojo spend on rehearsals is a continuous random
variable with probability density function as defined below

 kt , 0  t  20
 t
 1
f (t )    , 20  t  50
 750 15
 0, elsewhere

a. Write down an equation that can be used to calculate the value of k. Do not solve the
equation. 1 mark

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After substituting the value of k the probability density function becomes

 t
 , 0  t  20
500

 t 1
f (t )    , 20  t  50
 750 15
 0, elsewhere



b. Sketch f(t) versus t. Label the axial intercept(s) with coordinates. 2 marks
 Find the following giving all answers correct to 4 decimal places:
c. the median. 2 marks

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d. the expected value. 2 marks

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e. the standard deviation. 2 marks

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f. the probability that they spend at least 10 hours on rehearsals. 1 mark

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g. the probability that they spend at least 10 hours on rehearsals, given that they spend at
most 15 hours on rehearsals. 2 marks

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Question 3 (16 marks)

A SCHS Methods teacher recently holidayed in Korea. Immersing herself in the local culture
she entered a Kpop dancing competition.

 She knew that the length of time of her dancing routines, X, is normally distributed
with mean of 3.5 minutes and standard deviation of 0.6 minutes.
 Her first opponent was a mysterious, heavy set and unfit man by the name of Kim Jong
Um. His routine times, Y were also normally distributed, but both the mean and
standard deviation were unknown.

Find the probability (correct to 4 decimal places) that:

a. The Methods teacher’s routine lasted less than 3 minutes. 1 mark

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b. The teacher’s routine was within two standard deviations of her mean time. 1 mark

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c. The teacher’s routine takes longer than 3.8 minutes given it takes less than 4.1 minutes .
2 marks
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d. If Z is the standard normal variable, find ‘a’ if Pr(Z< 0.8) = Pr (X > a). 2 marks

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e. Kim (aka Rocket Man to his friends) told our Maths teacher that Pr(Y< 2.8) = 0.42074 and
Pr (Y> 3.4) = 0.344578 and challenged her to calculate the mean and standard deviation
for his routines (which she did correctly and easily). Set up the equations to then show
that 𝜇 = 3 and 𝜎 = 1 to the nearest integer. 3 marks

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f. Find the median time for Y. Give your answer correct to 1 decimal place. 1 mark

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g. Using your answer to part e write an equation for g(y), the probability density function for
Kim’s routines. Also write an equation for f(x), the probability density function for our
teacher’s routines. 2 marks
Note that for 𝑋⁡~𝑁(𝜇. 𝜎²), the probability density function is given by
1  x 
2

1  
 
f ( x)  e 2
 2

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h. Our maths teacher was interested in whether the equation Pr(Y > c) = Pr(X < c) could be
used to solve for ‘c’. Write an equation using definite integrals that could be used to solve
for ‘c’ (use the symbols f(x) and g(y) in your answer [solution not required]). 1 mark

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i. Entry to the Kpop dance competition costs $10. If our teacher’s dance lasts between 3.5
and 4 minutes she receives a cheque for $30 and $50 if it lasts more than 4 minutes. Let
P represent her profit from the competition. Complete the probability distribution table
below. Give the values correct to 4 decimal places. 2 marks

p -10 20 40

Pr(P = p) 0.2977

j. Given that her dance routine lasted less than 4 minutes find her expected profit. Give the
value to the nearest $. 1 mark
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Postscript: Our teacher defeated her opponent who was last seen skulking
northwards towards the border, muttering, “I’m going home to play with my rockets”.

END OF CAT