02A Basic Probability Answers

9709/51 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance
6(a) 0.6  0.4  0.3  0.72 or 1 – 0.4 x 0.7 = 0.72 B1 Clear identified calculation AG
6(b) 0.72   0.4  0.6  0.2  M1 0.72  u, 0 < u < 1
M1 v  (0.4 + 0.6  0.2), or

v  (1 – 0.6  0.8) 0 < v ⩽ 1 no additional terms
SC B1 for 0.72  (0.4 + 0.12) or 0.72  (1 – 0.48)
0.3744 A1 WWW. Condone 0.374. SC B1 for 0.3744 only
Alternative method for question 6(b)
[p(P1P2) + p(F1P1P2) + p(P1F2P2) + p(F1P1F2P2)] = M1 Any two terms unsimplified and correct
0.6  0.4 + 0.4  0.3  0.4 + 0.6  0.6  0.2 + 0.4  0.3  0.6  0.2
M1 Summing 4 appropriate scenarios by listing or on a
tree diagram
SC B1 for 0.24 + 0.048 + 0.072 + 0.0144
0.3744 A1 WWW. Condone 0.374. SC B1 for 0.3744 only
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6(c) P (fails first or second level  finishes game) M1 Either 0.6  0.6  0.2 or 0.4  0.3  0.4 seen
P (fails first or second level | finishes game) 
their (b) Condone 0.072 or 0.048 if seen in (b)
A1 Both correct accept unsimplified expression.

Numerator = P(S SF) + P(FS S) = 0.6  0.6  0.2 + 0.4  0.3  0.4 = 0.072 + 0.048 = 0.12 No additional terms
0.12 M1 Their sum of two 3-term probabilities as numerator
Required probability =
their(b) their (b) or correct
25 A1 0.3205 < p ⩽ 0.321

0.321 or
78
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7(a) 5 4 3 60 1 M1 Either 12  11  10 in denominator

YYY:    ,
12 11 10 1320 22 or a  (a –1)  ( a – 2), a = 5, 4, 3 in numerator seen in at least
one expression.
4 3 2 24 1
OOO:    , A1 a a 1 a  2
12 11 10 1320 55 One expression   , a = 5, 4, 3 (consistent in
12 11 10
3 2 1 6 1 expression).
RRR:    , Correct order of values in the numerator is essential.
12 11 10 1320 220
M1 5 4 3 4 3 2 3 2 1
        , either d = 11, e = 10 or
12 d e 12 d e 12 d e
d = 12, e = 12.
1 1 1
Condone   OE
22 55 220
90 3 A1 0.06818. Dependent only upon the second M mark.

[Total =] , , 0.0682
1320 44
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7(a) Alternative method for question 7(a)
5
C3 10 1 M1 Either 12 C3 in denominator or a C3 in numerator seen in at least
YYY: 12
 ,
C3 220 22 one expression.
4
C3 4 1
OOO: 12
 , A1 a
C3
C3 220 55 One expression 12
a = 5, 4, 3
3
C3
C3 1
RRR: 12

C3 220 M1 5
C3 4
C3 3
C3
12
 12
 12
C3 C3 C3
1 1 1
Condone   OE
22 55 220
90 3 A1 0.06818. Dependent only upon the second M mark.

[Total =] , , 0.0682
1320 44
7(b) 60 90 M1 60 1
[P(YYY | all same colour) =]  their P  YYY  or or
1320 1320 1320 22
90 3
their 7  a  or or
1320 44
2 A1 OE
, 0.667
3
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7(c) In each method, the M mark requires the scenarios to be identifiable. This may be implied by a list of scenarios and then the calculations which will
be assumed to be in the same order.
A correct value/expression will be condoned as identifying the connected scenario.
Method 1
8 7 6 8
C 14 B1 8 7 6 8
C3 336 56
[1 – no orange = ]1−   or 1  12 3 = 1    or 12
seen, condone or only, not
12 11 10 C3 55 12 11 10 C3 1320 220
OE.
M1 f g h
1  
12 d e
Either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12
8
C
or 1 - 12 3 .
C3
14 41
Condone 1  OE (not ).
55 55
41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545
55 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
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7(c) Method 2
 4 3 2 4 5 4  B1 P(1 O)or P(2 O) correct, accept unsimplified.

 12  11  10  12  11  10   672
P(1 O)=  3  M1 3 correct scenarios added, with at least one 3-term product of
 4 5 3  1320
 2    f g h
 12 11 10  form   seen, either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12.
12 d e
4 3 8 288
P(2O) =   3 
12 11 10 1320
24
P(3O) =
1320
984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

[Total =]  , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55
Method 3
O Y R = 4 C1  5 C1  3 C1 = 60 B1 Number of ways either 1 or 2 orange sweets obtained correctly

(112 or 48). Accept unsimplified
O R R = 4 C1  3 C 2 = 12 Note 4C1  8C2 = 112 or 4C2  8C1 = 48 are correct alternatives.
4 5
O Y Y = C1  C2 = 40
4 5 M1 3 correct scenarios (1, 2 or 3 orange sweets) added on
O O Y = C2  C1 = 30
numerator, denominator 12 C3
O O R = 4 C2  3 C1 = 18
4
O O O = C3 =4
Total = 164
164
Prob = 12
C3
984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

 , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55
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7(c) Method 4
3 2 4 1 B1 17 17
P(R R O) =    P(R ^ ^) = or P(Y ^ ^) = . Accept unsimplified.
12 11 10 55 110 66
3 4 1
P(R O ) =   M1 3 correct scenarios added, with at least one 3-term product of
12 11 11
3 5 4 1 f g h
P(R Y O) =    form   seen, either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12.
12 11 10 22 12 d e
4 1
P(O )= 
12 3
5 3 4 1
P(Y R O) =   
12 11 10 22
5 4 5
P(Y O ) =  
12 11 33
5 4 4 2
P(Y Y O) =   
12 11 10 33
984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

 , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55
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7(c) Method 5
4 1 B1 8 28
P(O )=  P(^ O ) = or P(^ ^ O) = . Accept unsimplified.
12 3 33 165
8 4 8
P(^ O ) =   M1 3 correct scenarios added, with at least one 3-term product of
12 11 33
8 7 4 28 f g h
P(^ ^ O) =    form   seen, either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12
12 11 10 165 12 d e
with correct numerator.
984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

 , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55
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6(a) 1st 2nd 3rd B1 First and second jumps correct with probabilities
and outcomes identified.
0.3 S
0.3 S B1 Third jump correct with probabilities and outcomes
0.7 F identified.
S 0.1 S
0.2 0.7
F F
0.9
0.3 S
0.8 0.1 S
0.7
F F
0.9 0.1 S
F
0.9 F
6(b) SFF 0.2  0.7  0.9  0.126 M1 Two or three correct 3 factor probabilities added,
FSF 0.8  0.1 0.7  0.056 correct or FT from part 6(a). Accept unsimplified.
FFS 0.8  0.9  0.1 0.072
 127  A1 Accept unsimplified.

[Total = probability of 1 success =] 0.254  
 500 
 44  B1 FT Accept unsimplified.
[Probability of at least 1 success = 1− 0.8  0.9  0.9 ]0.352  
 125 
their 0.254 M1 Accept unsimplified.

P(exactly 1 success | at least 1 success)=
their 0.352
127 A1 0.7215 < p ⩽ 0.722

0.722,
176
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6(c) 0.8  0.9  0.9  0.1 0.3  0.3  0.005832 [FFFSSS] M1 a × b × c × d × e × f FT from their tree diagram.
0.2  0.3  0.3  0.7  0.9  0.9  0.010206 [SSSFFF] Either a, b and c all = 0.8 or 0.9 (at least one of
each) and d, e and f all = 0.1 or 0.3 (at least one of
each).
Or a, b, c = 0.2 or 0.3 (at least one of each) and d,
e, f = 0.7 or 0.9 (at least one of each).
A1 Either correct. Accept unsimplified.
[Total =] 0.0160[38] A1

12
7(a) C5 × 7C4 [× 3C3] M1 12
Cr × q, r = 3, 4, 5 q a positive integer > 1,
no + or − .__
12
M1 Cs × 12–sCt [× 12-s–tCu]
s = 3, 4, 5; t = 3, 4, 5 ≠ s; u = 3, 4, 5 ≠ s ,t
Alternative method for question 7(a)
12! M1 12!  by a product of three factorials.

5! 3! 4!
M1 n!
5! 3! 4!
[792 × 35 =] 27 720 A1 CAO
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9709/51 51Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme October/November 2022
PUBLISHED
5(a) B1 1st throw fully correct with probabilities and outcomes identified.
 1
(Probabilities  all  and outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6) on branches).
 6
B1 2nd throw fully correct with probabilities and outcomes identified.

 1
(Probabilities  all  and outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6) on branches).
 6
2
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5(b) 1 1 1 7 B1 P(5) or P(7) identified and correct unsimplified, accept if

5 comes from 1+4 or 5: P(5) =  + = supported by correct scenarios shown or from tree diagram .
6 6 6 36
1 1 1
6 comes from 1+5 P(6) =  =
6 6 36
1 1 1 1 2
7 comes from 1+6 or 6+1 P(7) =  +  =
6 6 6 6 36
1 1 1
8 comes from 6+2 P(8) =  =
6 6 36
1 1 1
9 comes from 6+3 P(9) =  =
6 6 36
7 1 2 1 1 M1 Adding only the values from 5 correct scenarios.

P(A) = + + + +
36 36 36 36 36
12 1 A1 Scenarios identified (may be on tree diagram in 5(a)), all

= = probabilities seen, WWW AG.
36 3
5(c) 1 6 M1 Both identified and evaluated, consistent with their tree diagram
P(B) = , P(A∩B)= or correct.
3 36
1 1 1 A1 P(A) × P(B) seen and evaluated, all notation present and correct.
P(A)P(B) =  = Correct conclusion WWW.
3 3 9
6 1
 , so not independent
36 9
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5(d) 6 B1 6
P ( B  A’) their 36 36
oe as numerator of a fraction.
P(B | A’) = =
P ( A ) 2
3 M1 6
their or correct
36 seen, consistent with their tree diagram.
1
their 1 − or correct
3
1 A1
, 0.25
4
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9709/52 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme October/November 2022
PUBLISHED
1(a) 0.2  x + 0.1 2x + 0.7  0.25 = 0.235 M1 0.2  x + 0.1 2x + 0.7  0.25 or 0.2x + 0.2x + 0.175 seen.
M1 Equating their 3 term expression (2 terms involving x) to 0.235
x = 0.15 A1
1(b)  P ( car and not late )  M1 0.1  (1 − 2  their x ) or 0.1  0.7 as numerator
 P(car |not late ) = 
 P ( not late )  and
0.2  (1 – their x) + 0.1  (1 – 2 × their x ) + 0.7  0.75 with values
0.1  (1 − 0.3)
substituted or 1 – 0.235 or 0.765 as denominator of fraction.
1 − 0.235 Condone 0.2  (1 – their x) + 0.1  (1 –  their x) + 0.7  0.75 as
denominator consistent with 1(a).
 0.07  70 14 A1 0.091503267 to at least 3SF.

 0.765 =  0.0915, 765 , 153 If M0 scored SC B1 for 0.091503267 to at least 3SF.
 
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6(c) 43 A1
, 0.683
63
7(a) 3 2 5 3 M1 3 2 5 3
[P(SR TR) + P(SW TR) =]  +   + k or l +  0 < k,l < 1
8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7
21 3 A1 3
= , , 0.375 SC B1 for with no explanation.
56 8 8
7(b) [RRWR, WRRR, WRWR] M1 m n o q

   1 ⩽ m,n,o,q ⩽ 5, m ≠ n ≠ o ≠ q
3 2 5 1 5 3 2 1 5 3 4 2 8 7 6 5
   +    +   
8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5
1 1 1 A1 Probability for one scenario correct, accept unsimplified.
[= + + ]
56 56 14
M1 Adding probabilities for 3 correct scenarios and no incorrect.
180 3 A1 Or 0.1071428… to 4SF or better.

= , , 0.107 SC B1 for 3/28 with inadequate explanation.
1680 28
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7(c) 30 1 M1 3 2 5 1
their P ( RRWR ) or   
[P(S first disc R |T2 ) =] 1680 = 56 8 7 6 5
3 3 3
their 7 ( b ) − must be a prob or
28 28 28
1 A1
, 0.167
6
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4(a) B1 Fully correct labelled tree diagram for each pair of

branches clearly identifying written and practical, pass
and fail for each intersection (no additional branches)
B1 ‘One written test’ branch all probabilities (or %) correct
B1 ‘Two written tests’ branch all probabilities (or %)

correct, condone additional branches after W2F with
probabilities 1 for PF and 0 for PP
4(b) [P(W1P) × P(PP) + P(W1F) × P(W2P) × P(PP)] M1 Consistent with their tree diagram or correct
0.8 × 0.3 + 0.2 × 0.6 × 0.3
69 A1
0.276 or
250
4(c) P (W 1 ∩ Practical ) 0.8 × 0.3  0.24  M1 Correct expression or FT their (b)

P (W 1 P ) = = =
P ( getting place ) their ( b )  0.276 
20 A1
or 0.87[0]
23
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3(a) P(not late) = 0.4 × 0.45 + 0.35 × 0.3 + 0.25 × (1 – x) M1 0.4 × p + 0.35 × q + 0.25 × r ,
or p = 0.45, 0.55, q = 0.3, 0.7 and r = (1 – x), x
P(late) = 0.4 × 0.55 + 0.35 × 0.7 + 0.25x
0.18 + 0.105 + 0.25 (1 – x) = 0.48 A1 Linear equation formed using sum of 3 probabilities and 0.48 or
or 0.52 as appropriate.
0.22 + 0.245 + 0.25x = 0.52 Accept unsimplified.
x = 0.22 A1 Final answer
3(b)  P ( train ∩ late )  B1 0.35 × 0.7 or 0.245 seen as numerator of fraction

 P ( train late ) = 
 P ( late )  M1 P(late) seen as a denominator with their probability as numerator
0.35 × 0.7 0.35 × 0.7 their p their p
= or (Accept or )
1 − 0.48 0.4 × 0.55 + 0.35 × 0.7 + 0.25 × their 0.22 0.52 0.22 + 0.245 + 0.25 × their 0.22
49 A1
= 0.471 or
104
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7(a)(i) 40 1 B1
or or 0.05
800 20
7(a)(ii) 177 M1 Their 223 + 177 + 40 seen as denominator of fraction

223 + 177 + 40 in the final answer, accept unsimplified
177 A1 CAO
or 0.402
440
Alternative method for Question 7(a)(ii)
177 177 177 M1 Their P(S) seen as denominator of fraction in the final
P (G ∩ S ) 800 answer, accept unsimplified
P ( G | S) = = = 800 = 800
P(S ) 223 + 177 + 40 440 11
or 0.55
800 800 20
177 A1 CAO
or 0.402
440
7(b)(i) P(0, 1, 2) = M1 One term:10Cx px (1 – p)10–x for 0 < x < 10, any 0<p<1
C0 ( 0.35 ) ( 0.65) + 10C1 ( 0.35 ) ( 0.65) + 10C2 ( 0.35 ) ( 0.65)
10 0 10 1 9 2 8
0.013463 + 0.072492 + 0.17565 A1 Correct unsimplified expression, or better
0.262 A1
3
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7(b)(ii) Mean = 120 × 0.35 [ = 42 ] B1 Correct mean and variance seen, allow unsimplified
Variance = 120 × 0.35 × 0.65 [ = 27.3]
32.5 − 42 M1 Substituting their mean and variance into

P(X >32) = P( Z > ) = P(Z > - 1.818) ±standardisation formula (any number), condone σ2 or
27.3
√σ
M1 Using continuity correction 31.5 or 32.5
Φ (1.818 ) M1 Appropriate area Φ, from final process, must be

probability
0.966 A1 0.965 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.966
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2(b)   ( x − k )2   ( x − k )  2  9640  520  2 M1 Values substituted into an appropriate variance formula,

Var =  −   = − 2
 = [241 – 13 =] accept unsimplified.
 40  40   40  40 
 
72 A1
3  P (T ∩ B′ )  M1 0.45 × a + 0.35 × b + 0.2 [×1] , a = 0.7,0.3 b = 0.4,0.6 , seen

 P ( T |B ′ ) = 
 P ( B ′ )  anywhere.
P ( B′ ) = 0.45 × 0.7 + 0.35 × 0.4 + 0.2 × 1 A1 Correct, accept unsimplified.
 131 
 = 0.655, 200 
 
7 M1 Seen as numerator or denominator of a fraction.

P (T ∩ B ') = 0.35 × 0.4 [= 0.14, ]
50
their 0.14 M1 Values substituted into conditional probability formula

P (T | B ') = correctly. Accept unsimplified.
their 0.655
Denominator sum of 3 two-factor probabilities (condone
omission of 1 from final factor).
If clearly identified, condone from incomplete
denominator.
28 A1 If 0 marks awarded, SC B1 0.214 WWW.

0.214,
131
5
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1(a) 82 41 B1
, , 0.456
180 90
1(b) 11 M1 P ( M ∩ D)
 P(M ∩ D) 0.6011 Their identified
 P ( M|D ) =
180
 = 20 11 or P ( D)
 P ( D )  + 0.1722
11
180 180 or from data table , accept unsimplified, condone × 180.
20 + 11
11 A1 Final answer.
, 0.355
31
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1(c) 100 5 82 41 M1 Their identified P(F) × their identified P(G) or correct seen, can be
P(F) = , , 0.5556 OE P(G) = , 0.4556 OE
180 9 180 90 unsimplified.
38 19
P(F∩G) = , , 0.2111 OE A1 41 38
180 90 , , P ( F ∩ G ) and P ( F ) × P ( G ) seen with correct
162 180
100 82 41  38 
P ( F) × P ( G ) = × = , 0.2531 OE  ≠  conclusion, WWW. Values and labels must be seen.
180 180 162  180 
Not independent
Alternative method for question 1(c)
38 19 82 41 M1 P(F|G) (OE) unsimplified with their identified probs or correct

P(F∩G) = , ,0.2111 OE P(G) = , , 0.4556 OE
180 90 180 90
A1 19 100
38 , , P ( F ∩ G ) and P ( F|G ) seen with correct conclusion WWW.
19 41 180
P ( F|G ) = 180 = , 0.4634 OE Values and labels must be seen.
82 41
180
100 5
≠ P ( F) = , ,0.5556 OE
180 9
Not independent
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7(a) x +1 9 x 10 B1 One probability correct in correct position.

Probabilities: , , ,
x + 10 x + 10 x + 10 x + 10
B1 Another probability correct in correct position.
B1 Other two probabilities correct in correct positions.
7(b) 4 10 M1 Method consistent with their tree diagram.

× their
10 x + 10
4 A1 AG
x + 10
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7(c) 4 1 B1 Find value of x. Can be implied by correct probabilities in

= calculation.
x + 10 6
x + 10 = 24, x = 14
P(ARed|BRed) = P(ARed ∩ BRed) ÷ P(BRed) B1 FT 6 x +1

× their as numerator or denominator of
10 x + 10
6 x +1 6 15 3 fraction.
× their ×
10 x + 10 = 10 24 = 8
6 x +1 4 x 6 15 4 14 73 M1 6 x +1 4 x
× their + × their × + × × their + × their seen anywhere.
10 x + 10 10 x + 10 10 24 10 24 120 10 x + 10 10 x + 10
A1 FT Seen as denominator of fraction.
45 A1 If B0 M0:
, 0.616[4…]
73 3
0.375 45
SC B1 for 8 or SC B1 or 0.616.
73 0.6083 73
120
Page 25 of 25

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9709/51 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022

6(b) 0.72   0.4  0.6  0.2  M1 0.72  u, 0 < u < 1

M1 v  (0.4 + 0.6  0.2), or

0.3744 A1 WWW. Condone 0.374. SC B1 for 0.3744 only

Alternative method for question 6(b)

0.3744 A1 WWW. Condone 0.374. SC B1 for 0.3744 only

© UCLES 2022 Page 1

A1 Both correct accept unsimplified expression.

25 A1 0.3205 < p ⩽ 0.321

© UCLES 2022 Page 2

7(a) 5 4 3 60 1 M1 Either 12  11  10 in denominator

90 3 A1 0.06818. Dependent only upon the second M mark.

© UCLES 2022 Page 3

7(a) Alternative method for question 7(a)

90 3 A1 0.06818. Dependent only upon the second M mark.

© UCLES 2022 Page 4

© UCLES 2022 Page 5

 4 3 2 4 5 4  B1 P(1 O)or P(2 O) correct, accept unsimplified.

984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

O Y R = 4 C1  5 C1  3 C1 = 60 B1 Number of ways either 1 or 2 orange sweets obtained correctly

984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

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984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

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984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

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 127  A1 Accept unsimplified.

their 0.254 M1 Accept unsimplified.

127 A1 0.7215 < p ⩽ 0.722

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A1 Either correct. Accept unsimplified.

Question Answer Marks Guidance

Alternative method for question 7(a)

12! M1 12!  by a product of three factorials.

[792 × 35 =] 27 720 A1 CAO

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B1 2nd throw fully correct with probabilities and outcomes identified.

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5(b) 1 1 1 7 B1 P(5) or P(7) identified and correct unsimplified, accept if

7 1 2 1 1 M1 Adding only the values from 5 correct scenarios.

12 1 A1 Scenarios identified (may be on tree diagram in 5(a)), all

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M1 Equating their 3 term expression (2 terms involving x) to 0.235

 0.07  70 14 A1 0.091503267 to at least 3SF.

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

7(b) [RRWR, WRRR, WRWR] M1 m n o q

180 3 A1 Or 0.1071428… to 4SF or better.

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4(a) B1 Fully correct labelled tree diagram for each pair of

B1 ‘One written test’ branch all probabilities (or %) correct

B1 ‘Two written tests’ branch all probabilities (or %)

4(c) P (W 1 ∩ Practical ) 0.8 × 0.3  0.24  M1 Correct expression or FT their (b)

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x = 0.22 A1 Final answer

3(b)  P ( train ∩ late )  B1 0.35 × 0.7 or 0.245 seen as numerator of fraction

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7(a)(ii) 177 M1 Their 223 + 177 + 40 seen as denominator of fraction

Alternative method for Question 7(a)(ii)

0.013463 + 0.072492 + 0.17565 A1 Correct unsimplified expression, or better

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