The Weather and Climate Authority

Second National
Climate Outlook Forum
(JANUARY – JUNE 2016)

Prepared by:
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION

Updated: 5 January 2016

Contents
• Global Advisories
• El Nino Forecast/Outlook
• Weather Systems that may affect the country
• Climate Outlook (Rainfall, Temperature, dry days)
• Dry Spell / Drought Outlook
• Summary
GLOBAL ADVISORIES
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION
CENTERS SUMMARY

CPC/ International • El Niño is expected to remain strong through the Northern

Research Institute (IRI) Hemisphere winter (DJF)2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-
As of : 4 January 2015 neutral anticipated during late spring or early summer 2016.

• El Niño likely past its peak

Bureau of Meteorology • This event is one of the top three strongest El Niño events of
(BOM)-Australia the past 50 years.
As of : 05 January 2016 • Climate models suggest the 2015-16 El Niño will decline
during the coming months, with a return to ENSO neutral
likely during the second quarter of 2016.
Tokyo Climate Center/JMA • It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the
-Japan Northern Hemisphere spring, and then the equatorial Pacific
As of : 10 December 2015 will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the Northern
Hemisphere summer.

APEC Climate Center, • Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for January to
Busan, S. Korea June 2016 indicates the positive temperature anomaly across
As of : 24 December 2015 the tropical Pacific associated with the mature phase of El
Niño to gradually weaken.
 SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, tropical SSTs were above average across most of the
Pacific.
 Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures

are:
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.7ºC
Niño 3 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Updated : 05 January 2016

 ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950

The most recent ONI value

(September – November 2015)
is 2.0oC.

El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Updated: 17 December 2015
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook

The chance of El Niño

gradually decreases into the
spring and ENSO-neutral is
favored by May-June-July
(MJJ) 2016.
 IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook

Most models indicate that Niño

3.4 will remain strongly positive
into early 2016.

Positive anomalies are predicted

to weaken into the Northern
Hemisphere Spring 2016.

Figure provided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 15 December 2015).
 SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 4 January 2016

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño through
JJA 2016.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(JANUARY– JUNE 2016)

Updated:
Jan. 5, 2016
 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE
COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
January - June 2016

JANUARY - MARCH 2016 APRIL - JUNE 2016

• Northeast (NE) Monsoon
• Tail-end of Cold Front
• Easterly wave
• Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ)
• Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
• Ridge of High Pressure Area
• Tropical Cyclones
• Transition from NE
Monsoon to Southwest
(SW) monsoon in April
• SW Monsoon
• Local Thunderstorms
• Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ)
• Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
• Ridge of High Pressure Area
• Tropical Cyclones
About our Rainfall Maps…
For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK (January – June 2016)
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) January 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) February 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) March 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) April 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) May 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) June 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
FORECAST RAINFALL SUMMARY
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL FORECAST

Note: Other stations not shown in the maps indicate equal chances of near, below, and above normal
rainfall
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL FORECAST

Note: Other stations not shown in the maps indicate equal chances of near, below, and above normal
rainfall
RAINFALL DEPARTURE FROM
LAST YEAR (2015)
How much different is the forecast rainfall from 2015 Actual Rainfall?
How much different is the forecast rainfall from 2015 Actual Rainfall?
 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED
DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN – JUNE 2016
JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE
SITES MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 34.6 325.6 1.7 12.8 10.9 36.3 65.3 76.9 230.2 89.9 178.3 64.7
ANGATDAM 21.8 92.2 8.1 38.2 0.7 2.4 20.7 47.2 217.8 106.9 279.2 96.6
APUNAN 56.7 472.7 5.3 39.2 9.6 38.1 66.5 79.8 212.6 89.6 172.0 71.3
BADAYAN 57.7 254.1 5.0 30.1 5.1 29.8 53.9 65.0 215.2 88.7 178.0 72.9
BINGADAM 10.0 117.4 2.0 15.6 10.9 35.2 63.9 75.5 229.4 90.0 179.4 63.2
BOBOK 33.7 316.5 1.6 17.2 11.8 42.4 72.2 87.3 203.2 90.1 169.5 71.2
BUNGA 2.1 101.3 1.7 21.3 2.9 15.9 27.0 38.2 142.0 88.3 154.5 63.2
BUYOC 46.7 398.1 2.5 25.2 1.4 27.1 49.7 65.2 157.6 85.4 145.4 91.2
DANTOR 44.5 411.6 2.5 21.3 1.1 33.1 38.5 54.7 154.9 85.7 146.8 92.1
DUMAYUP 46.1 310.6 5.8 31.9 8.2 27.6 52.5 63.2 155.8 84.3 143.0 91.3
HALONG 49.2 489.1 2.8 21.7 1.1 28.2 48.7 64.1 172.7 87.6 157.0 86.0
IPODAM 8.8 84.6 3.2 21.3 0.9 9.1 18.7 45.5 199.6 100.2 269.4 90.1
MAGATDAM 54.0 269.5 3.8 29.6 2.1 13.8 28.9 43.0 146.9 81.4 139.6 101.0
MAPUTI 136.1 76.0 14.7 8.7 14.0 9.1 29.0 44.9 221.2 103.0 254.2 98.4
MARIKIT 56.1 102.7 37.5 36.6 36.1 18.5 40.7 24.5 167.8 84.1 158.2 69.3
MATULID 92.6 96.1 7.8 8.5 7.6 10.2 24.3 49.7 221.4 105.1 275.6 96.6
PADALIS 24.2 117.4 16.7 31.1 15.5 11.7 25.0 23.1 138.1 84.0 143.2 61.7
PANTABANGAN DAM 16.4 112.5 2.6 25.0 5.9 34.1 2.9 9.1 126.2 84.8 145.4 59.0
SANROQUEDAM 8.3 38.1 2.6 33.9 4.8 18.1 38.1 48.4 211.2 89.3 190.0 60.5
STODOMINGO 30.4 292.0 4.7 29.5 10.6 35.3 61.1 74.2 155.3 86.9 145.8 81.0
TALAGUIO 31.4 82.7 3.4 9.4 3.7 0.8 22.0 42.7 214.8 105.2 260.8 98.8
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and
Lakes in (mm) and (%N)

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (JANUARY - JUNE 2016)

NAME
Angat Watershed Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS
MIN 15.9 154.2 25.7 12.5 59.3 12.1 8.3
MAX 196.4 214.5 64.0 55.7 69.5 68.1 57.0
JANUARY 2016
MEAN 104.2 180.6 40.2 37.0 65.1 21.7 24.4
%NORMAL 95.9 66.8 41.7 336.0 59.3 111.1 238.5
MIN 0.8 45.1 10.0 3.9 11.1 6.2 0.8
MAX 31.2 57.6 27.9 22.9 14.9 48.3 2.1
FEBRUARY 2016
MEAN 12.5 50.2 17.9 2.9 12.4 14.3 1.0
%NORMAL 6.7 24.2 22.3 25.3 25.7 28.1 12.9
MIN 0.8 37.5 7.9 2.6 16.9 3.8 3.9
MAX 29.7 69.5 34.9 23.3 17.7 47.2 12.1
MARCH 2016
MEAN 12.0 53.3 20.7 6.6 17.3 13.9 9.2
%NORMAL 5.7 30.1 23.3 29.8 30.2 12.6 33.3
MIN 20.7 26.6 2.9 29.2 5.9 1.4 32.8
MAX 39.8 64.7 56.5 71.9 12.2 53.2 72.8
APRIL 2016
MEAN 27.3 47.1 28.8 53.0 8.7 25.5 60.3
%NORMAL 46.5 28.5 21.2 66.5 25.5 25.7 72.2
MIN 210.6 92.8 96.2 141.6 37.2 125.4 180.4
MAX 225.9 132.1 225.4 203.0 42.5 183.5 293.8
MAY 2016
way below normal MEAN 220.5 113.4 163.0 161.5 39.3 142.8 220.4
%NORMAL 104.4 67.4 86.0 86.6 65.0 85.3 89.7
below normal MIN 233.9 160.9 170.4 139.9 79.1 142.0 161.1
near normal MAX 281.0 204.2 269.5 171.7 105.9 166.9 196.7
JUNE 2016
above normal MEAN 261.8 184.2 220.4 150.0 91.3 149.2 176.9
%NORMAL 97.7 86.1 83.1 83.9 72.9 63.3 65.4
DRY DAY FORECAST
 NUMBER OF DRY DAYS
REGION JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE
CAR 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 21-25
Region 1 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
Region 2 26-31 21-25 26-31 26-30 21-25 21-25
Region 3 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 21-25
Region 4-A 21-25 21-25 26-31 26-30 21-25 21-25
Region 4-B 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
Region 5 16-20 21-25 26-31 21-25 21-25 16-20
NIR 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
Region 6 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
Region 7 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 26-31 21-25
Region 8 16-20 21-25 21-25 26-30 26-31 16-20
Region 9 26-31 21-25 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
Region 10 26-31 21-25 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
Region 11 21-25 21-25 26-31 21-25 16-20 16-20
Region 12 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
CARAGA 16-20 11-15 16-20 21-25 16-20 16-20
ARMM 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 21-25 16-20
NCR 26-31 26-28 26-31 26-30 26-31 21-25
DRY SPELL & DROUGHT
OUTLOOK
(JANUARY – JUNE 2016)

Updated:
JAN. 4, 2016
 Dry condition / Dry spell / Drought CRITERIA
Dry condition = two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60%
reduction from average) rainfall conditions;

Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction
from average) rainfall conditions;

or
two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60%
reduction from average) rainfall conditions.

Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction
from average);
or
five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from
average) rainfall condition.
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF JANUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (6)
LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO LANAO DEL NORTE, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, DAVAO

ORIENTAL, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR,
LANAO DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (15)

LUZON CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES,

VISAYAS CAPIZ, ILOILO, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN

SAMAR
MINDANAO ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON, MISAMIS
OCCIDENTAL, DAVAO DEL SUR, SARANGANI

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (16)

LUZON PALAWAN, ALBAY

VISAYAS AKLAN, ANTIQUE, GUIMARAS, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,

NEGROS ORIENTAL, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR)
MINDANAO SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO, SULTAN
KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU,
TAWI-TAWI

20% of the country will likely experience

Drought (16 provinces)
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF FEBRUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (28)
LUZON PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS,
CAVITE, LAGUNA, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL
MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON,
CAMARINES NORTE, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS BOHOL, LEYTE, SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO DEL NORTE,

AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (8)

LUZON CATANDUANES
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO LANAO DEL NORTE, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, DAVAO DEL SUR,
DAVAO ORIENTAL, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR,
LANAO DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (29)

LUZON PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR

VISAYAS AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS

OCCIDENTAL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR,
BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
36% of the country will (WESTERN SAMAR)

likely experience MINDANAO ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON, MISAMIS
Drought (29 provinces) OCCIDENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO,
SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN,
MAGUINDANAO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF MARCH 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (2)
LUZON BATANES, QUIRINO
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (44)

LUZON ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO , KALINGA, APAYAO, MOUNTAIN
PROVINCE, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES,
AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL,
QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE, MASBATE,
SORSOGON
VISAYAS BOHOL, LEYTE, SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, DAVAO
DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, SURIGAO
DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (34)

LUZON PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES

VISAYAS AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO , NEGROS

OCCIDENTAL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN,
42% of the country will EASTERN SAMAR, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN
likely experience Drought SAMAR)

(34 provinces) MINDANAO ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON, LANAO DEL NORTE,
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO ORIENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN
KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, LANAO DEL SUR, SULU,
TAWI-TAWI
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF APRIL 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (12)

LUZON BENGUET, IFUGAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BATANES, NUEVA
VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, RIZAL, QUEZON
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO DAVAO DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (68)

LUZON ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA
UNION, PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, BATAAN, BULACAN,
NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, MARINDUQUE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON,
PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR,
BILIRAN, EASTERN , SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
85% of the country will MINDANAO ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,
likely experience Drought ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL
NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,
(68 provinces) COMPOSTELA VALLEY, DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO ORIENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN
KUDARAT, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN,
MAGUINDANAO, LANAO DEL SUR, SULU, TAWI-TAWI
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF MAY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (34)

LUZON ILOCOS NORTE, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, BATAAN,
PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE,
QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES
NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE,
SORSOGON
VISAYAS AKLAN, CAPIZ, BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, LEYTE,
NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN
LEYTE
MINDANAO ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE,
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL

42% of the country will likely experience

Drought (34 provinces)
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF JUNE 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (18)

LUZON ILOCOS NORTE, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, BATAAN, ZAMBALES,
BATANGAS, CAVITE
VISAYAS CAPIZ, BOHOL, SIQUIJOR, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR)
MINDANAO ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE,
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL

22% of the country will likely

experience Drought (18 provinces)
 Tropical Cyclone Forecast
MONTH Number of TC
JAN 2016 0 or 1
FEB 2016 0 or 1
MAR 2016 0 or 1
APR 2016 0 or 1
MAY 2016 1 or 2
JUN 2016 1 or 2

 No TC occurrence in Jan. and Feb. for the past 4 strong El

Nino events (1972, 1982, 1997, 2009)
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
FORECAST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGE
 FORECAST EXTREME TEMPERATURE RANGES

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Lowlands Luzon 26.1 35.1 28.0 37.5 28.6 39.6 30.1 39.6 30.6 41.5 31.2 39.5
Mountainous Luzon 25.3 27.6 24.7 27.0 26.7 30.3 26.4 28.8 26.2 28.7 26.6 28.5
Lowlands Visayas 30.0 34.5 30.3 39.3 30.8 36.6 32.2 38.0 32.6 38.3 32.8 37.8
Lowlands Mindanao 30.4 36.8 30.6 37.2 30.8 39.6 32.7 38.8 32.9 39.5 32.7 38.0
Mountainous Mindanao 31.5 33.4 33.0 35.4 32.5 35.6 34.0 36.2 33.3 36.0 32.5 33.8
Metro Manila 31.0 33.7 32.5 35.2 34.2 37.0 35.6 38.0 36.0 38.6 33.6 37.4

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Lowlands Luzon 12.2 26.5 15.0 25.4 15.7 25.9 14.4 25.9 17.3 26.8 18.0 27.5
Mountainous Luzon 7.4 11.0 9.9 12.1 11.5 14.7 11.7 15.0 15.0 16.6 15.2 16.0
Lowlands Visayas 18.3 24.4 18.5 24.6 19.6 25.6 19.6 25.5 19.7 26.4 21.3 25.5
Lowlands Mindanao 18.8 23.0 18.2 23.2 18.5 23.9 18.8 23.8 19.0 24.8 18.4 25.1
Mountainous Mindanao 14.0 16.5 12.5 16.6 14.0 17.0 14.0 17.0 16.0 18.2 16.5 18.2
Metro Manila 17.0 23.4 18.0 24.0 20.0 24.7 20.1 24.8 22.0 27.0 23.5 25.9
 SUMMARY
 El Niño is expected to remain strong through Dec-Jan-
Feb 2015-2016 season, with a transition to ENSO-
neutral anticipated during May-June-July 2016.
 Probability of having below normal rainfall condition in
most parts of the country is most likely in Jan. to April
2016 which may lead to drought condition (approx. 68
provinces affected at the end of April).
 Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected
during the forecast period;
 2-6 tropical cyclones may develop/enter the PAR from
January - June 2016;
PAGASA will continue to closely
monitor the situation and
updates/advisories shall be
issued as appropriate.

Use water
wisely!
 The Weather and Climate Authority

MARAMING
SALAMAT!