Representing input data 2) Limitations or disadvantages

i) Quantity of data required is

Stochastics - your input value no longer constant
very high
(data can take different setoff data or values)
ii) Can draw conclusion based
Kalau dia stochastic apa yang kene buat? on historically observed
data
1) Find the probability distribution and
enter the probability distribution. For How it is done in witness
example:
1) Collected some data and save it inn excel
i) NegExp ()
file (10 different set of data)
ii) Normal distribution

Other ways to represent or enter the data kalau

dia stochastic:

1) Trace-driven simulation
2) Random sampling from an empirical
distribution
3) Random sampling from a theoretical 2) Save it in computer/desktop
distribution

Trace-driven simulation
3) Renamed a worksheet
1) Random input data is represented with
actual (recorded) data
i) We go and record one by one
because the data will not 4) Created the variable at witness for
constant export the data from the excel
2) Need sufficient data from the real i) Variable is to calculate the
system certain value or store the data in
3) Save data in a machine-readable form 5) Defined a variable (real variable) dekat
i) Save data in databased fail for witness lepastu kene isi bende ni
example the excel or other
ii) import the data to the
simulation data for example
import the excel databased file
to the witness
4) Model reads input data, one record at a
time as event are encountered
6) Nanti jadi mmacam ni
Advantages and disadvantages of trace
driven simulation

1) Advantages
i) Conceptually simple
ii) Useful for validating model
 7) Pastu dekat wash tu tukar dekat cycle
time dia ikut nama variable dia, lepastu
dia kat action pastu click initial action
(dekat sini kita import data from excel to
witness)
i) Kalau nak import or export data

i) P = probability
ii) How to calculated the probability is
ii) Read untuk import data 3/120 = 0.25
iii) Write untuk export data iii) Cumulative probability (sum up the
iv) But now just click this button probability)

iv) Represented into witness (empirical

v) The full command distribution function in witness)

8) Run the model

v) Pakai real dist pastu isi bende ni

Random sampling from an empirical distribution a) Value = value of classes (masukkan
pper limits je)
1) Use observations of past behavior
b) Weight = frequency
2) Calculate absolute probability over
predefined ranges
i) Calculate the absolute
probability from
3) Assemble a piece-wise linear
approximation
4) Generate random sample using U (0,1)

Example calculation
vi) Tukar dekat cycle time (letak nama
di akene letak pseudo random name
value)
The equation for empirical distribution Some cases dia difficult sebab some case kit
akene tahu dia punya exact theoretical
exponential

Advantages and disadvantages

1) Advantages
i) Concise, computationally
efficient the full range of data
including extreme values are
available
Advantages and disadvantages 2) Limitations
i) The method is involved and
1) Advantaged requires a preparedness on the
i) Any value within the range part of the modeler to do some
(histogram) can be obtained at statistics! It is not always
random (rather than only possible to fit a theoretical
observed) distribution

ii) Fewer data observations

required (kalau dapat sikit data
yg boleh form histogram then da
siap)
iii) Complex multimode (most
frequently data) distribution can
be modelled
2) Limitations
i) Cannot generate value outside
the range observed even though
these probably exist.
ii) Extreme value outside the range
can be significant in introducing
significant disruptive behaviors
into the model.

Random sampling from a theoretical distribution

STEP IN TESTING FOR GOODNESS OF IT
5.
1. Collect data, sort group in classes,
histogram

1.70 tu sum of semua nilai tu

1.70 tu total error (defined error tu
acceptable ke tak)
1.70 = chi-squared calculation

2. Setup hypothesis/theory, what ditbn?

6.
Parameter
Ni untuk tau dia punya error tu
Example:
acceptable ke tak
Ho = data follow a uniform distribution
with min = 1 and max = 6
Cara nak dapatkan chi-squared critical
H1 = data do not follow a uniform
Alpha normally 0.05
distribution with min = 1 and max = 6
Degree of freedom = 6-1 =5

3. Assuming that hypothesis true,

calculate expected frequency for classes
(E)
Example:

(120/number of classes) to get the

7.
expected ffrequency

4. Calculate

Thus confirm this distribution follow the

uniform distribution sbb