ST.

XAVIER’S COLLEGE
KOLKATA
(AUTONOMOUS)

3rd SEMESTER EXAMINATION

DECEMBER 2021
B.A./B.Sc.
Friday, December 17, 2021
HSTGE3032T 1:00 PM to 3:30 PM
2 hours 30 minutes
INTRODUCTORY
Full Marks : 50
PROBABILITY

PLEASE READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS BEFORE YOU START WRITING:

• Of the questions attempted, the answers to only the first required number of questions (as stipulated
in the question paper) will be evaluated. So please do not attempt extra questions.

• Only HAND WRITTEN answer scripts (using black or blue ink) on A4 size sheets will be
considered.
• Answer in your own words as far as practicable.
• Save the scanned pages to a single PDF file and name the document accurately i.e. Roll No_Paper
Code.PDF (example: 147_HPHCR2032T).
• Students have to write legibly their answers on A4 size sheets, scanning them and sending the entire
answer script as one PDF file to the following email address (in REPLY mode) within 30 minutes
of the completion of the examination: hstge3032t2122@sxccal.edu
• The scanned answer scripts should have enough clarity to enable evaluation.
• On top of each page the following information should be entered by the student: Name, Roll
Number, Paper Code , Date, and Page Number
• No multiple submissions would be allowed.

The marks are given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question or part question.

The question paper consists of 3 pages.

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 Of the questions attempted, the answers to only the first required number of
questions (as stipulated in the question paper) will be evaluated.
So, PLEASE DO NOT ATTEMPT EXTRA QUESTIONS.

Answer ANY TWO from Question No. 1-4 and ANY TWO from Question No. 5-8.

1. A man is known to speak the truth 3/4 times. He draws a card and reports it is an ace.
Find the probability that it is actually an ace. [5]

2. Suppose a fire broke out and you are trapped at home. You send out three messages for
help. An sms at your friend’s mobile phone that has probability 0.1 of being seen, a
message wrapped in a stone and thrown outside that has probability 0.2 of being found
and a shout for a help that has probability 0.3 of being heard. Find the probability that
you are rescued, assuming that the three ways are independent. [5]

3. An unbiased coin is tossed until a head appears. What is the probability that there will be
‘x’ tails before the first head? Hence find the expected number of tails. [3+2]

4. Suppose a fair coin is tossed 400 times. Find a lower bound to the probability that the
number of the tails will be between 160 and 240. [5]

5. (i) What is the probability that a leap year, selected at random will contain 53 Tuesdays?
(ii) There are four boxes of one dozen eggs each. They contain 2, 3, 1 and 0 spoiled eggs
respectively. One box is selected at random and then an egg is taken at random from
the box. What is the probability that the egg is spoiled?
(iii) State and prove the theorem of total probability.
(iv) Let X be a random variable following a Poisson distribution with parameter λ (λ>0).
Derive the mode of X. [4+4+(2+4)+6]

6. (i) State and prove Bonferroni’s inequality.

(ii) Three balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 white and 3 black balls. X
denotes the number of white balls drawn with replacement. Write down the
probability distribution of X. Obtain E(X) and Var(X).
(iii) Obtain binomial distribution as a limiting form of a hypergeometric distribution.
(iv) What are the limitations of classical definition of probability? [5+(2+2+3)+5+3]

7. (i) Write the pdf of Gamma(α, p) distribution. Obtain the kurtosis of the distribution if
p=1. Comment on it.
(ii) If X is a random variable following normal distribution with mean 40 and standard
deviation 1, then find P(X>40).
(iii) What do you mean by convergence in probability?
(iv) State weak law of large number (WLLN). Verify whether WLLN holds for the sequence
of independent random variables {Xn} where

௡ = ± 2௡  = 2ି(ଶ௡ାଵ) and
௡ = 0 = 1 − 2ିଶ௡ [(2+6+2)+3+2+5]

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8. (i) Let X be a random variable with the following probability density function,
, 0≤≤4
   = 
0, ℎ 

(a) Determine k.
(b) Find P(1≤X≤2)
(c) Find expectation and variance of X.
(d) What is the median of the distribution?

(ii) If X be the random variable denoting the number of heads if three unbiased coins are
thrown simultaneously, then write down the probability distribution of X. Obtain
cumulative distribution function of the distribution. [(2+3+7+2)+ (3+3)]

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