College of Engineering

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Course Syllabus

Course Title
Probability and Reliability in Civil
Engineering
Course Code
0401702

Fall 2023 / 2024

 Course Syllabus

Course Title Probability and Reliability In Civil Engineering

Course Code 0401702

Credit Hours 3

Pre-requisite(s) 1440281 Introduction to Probability and Statistics or Equivalent

Co-requisite(s)

Semester Fall Year 2023-2024

Instructors Name Samer Barakat

Office Location M9-120

Tel. No. +971-6-5050958

Email sbarakat@sharjah.ac.ae

Lecture Times Tuesdays 5:00-8:00 PM

Office Hours

Course Description (as in the catalog):

Common probabilistic models, Reliability Methods, Concept of Reliability Index, First Order Reliability
Method (FORM), Second Order Reliability Method (SORM), Transformations, System Reliability,
Computer Based Simulations, Code Calibration, Time-Varying Reliability Analysis, Reliability-Based
Design and Optimization, Case Studies, Software Applications

Course Objectives/Goals (optional):

The goals of this course are to:
1. Introduce students to the principles of engineering reliability and the application of reliability
theory in civil engineering structures and infrastructures.
2. Enable the students to understand the basic concepts of component and system reliability
and probabilistically based code specifications.
3. Perform quantitative risk evaluation and optimum design accounting for uncertainty and
failure consequences.

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Course Learning Outcomes:
By the end of the successful completion of this course, the student will be able to:
1. Describe the sources of uncertainty in variables encountered in civil engineering design and
assess and explain their significance in safety and reliability
2. Model different engineering problems involving random variations in space and time;
3. Evaluate the safety of a civil engineering system in terms of the reliability of its components
considering different failure modes;
4. Explain the reasons leading to different values of partial safety factors for load and resistance
variables in design codes and standards
5. Produce a term paper individually and professionally communicate the findings.

Alignment of Course Student Learning Outcomes to Program Student Learning Outcomes

Program SLOs
Comprehend advanced knowledge in civil
engineering and/or other related
disciplines.
Apply high-level skills and techniques
required to extend or modify existing
knowledge or professional practice related
to civil engineering.
Communicate effectively complex and
diverse matters to specialist academic,
peer specialists/experts and/or
professional audiences.
Manage highly complex and diverse
ethical issues leading to informed, fair and
valid judgements.
Course SLOs
- Describe the sources of uncertainty in variables
encountered in civil engineering design and assess
and explain their significance in safety and
reliability.
- Model different engineering problems involving
random variations in space and time;
- Evaluate the safety of a civil engineering system in
terms of the reliability of its components considering
different failure modes;
- Explain the reasons leading to different values of
partial safety factors for load and resistance variables
in design codes and standards.
- Describe the sources of uncertainty in variables
encountered in civil engineering design and assess
and explain their significance in safety and
reliability.
- Model different engineering problems involving
random variations in space and time;
- Evaluate the safety of a civil engineering system in
terms of the reliability of its components considering
different failure modes;
- Explain the reasons leading to different values of
partial safety factors for load and resistance variables
in design codes and standards.
- Produce a term paper individually and professionally
communicate the findings.
- Produce a term paper individually and professionally
communicate the findings.

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Weekly Distribution of Course Topics/Contents
Week Topic Comments Course SLO
1. Introduction to Engineering Reliability
Review of Basic Statistics and Probability
Probability Distributions and Random Variables
2. Reliability Methods*
3. First Order Reliability Method (FORM)
4. Reliability Methods*
5. Second Order Reliability Method (SORM)
6. Concept of Reliability Index*
Simple, Geometric, and Generalized
7. Transformations
Reliability Index in Normal Space
8. System Reliability Analysis
9. Computer-Based Simulations*
10. Monte-Carlo Methods
11. Code Calibration
12. Statistical Uncertainty and Model Uncertainty
13. Models of Loads
Partial Safety Factors and LRFD Format
14. Time-Varying Reliability Analysis
15. Reliability-Based Design/Optimization*
16. Case Studies
17. Final Exam
* Lecture notes - Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis, B. Sudret CHAIR OF RISK, SAFETY AND UNCERTAINTY
QUANTIFICATION, STEFANO-FRANSCINI-PLATZ 5, CH-8093 Z¨U RICH.

Students' Assessment:
Students are assessed as follows:

Assessment Tool(s) Date Weight (%)

Assignments/Projects 25
Team Paper 35
Examination 40
Total 100

Course Outcome Assessment Plan:

Teaching/Learning Performance
Course LOs Assessment Tool(s)
Method(s) Indicators
Apply advanced statistical - Lectures - Exam
analysis techniques to civil (Presentation slides + - Project report
engineering problems. Whiteboard); - Assignments

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Course LOs
Formulate appropriate
statistical models and test
statistical hypotheses.
Apply the reliability-based
design to civil engineering
structures and
infrastructures.
Produce a term paper
individually and
professionally communicate
the findings.
Teaching/Learning Performance
Assessment Tool(s)
Method(s) Indicators
- Problem-solving - Student feedback
- Hands-on tutorials
using commercial
statistical software
- Presentations on - Project Report
scientific research - Project Presentation
- Report writing - Student feedback
guidelines

Teaching and Learning Resources:

Text Book(s):
- O. Ditlevsen and H.O. Madsen. (2007). Structural Reliability Methods (4th ed). Pearson.
- Ang, A. and Tang, W. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design (Vol. II). John
Wiley and Sons ISBN 0-471-80533-3

Recommended Readings:
- Ang, A. and tang, W. (2007). Probability Concepts in Engineering, Emphasis on Applications to
Civil and Environmental Engineering (2nd e d . ). Wiley. ISBN-100-471-72064-X, ISBN-13 978-
0-471-72064-5.
- Ang, A. and Tang, W. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design (Vol. I). John
Wiley and Sons ISBN 0-471-03200-X
- Benjamin, J. and Cornell, C. Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers. McGraw-
Hill Book Company ISBN 07-004549-6.

Other resources:
Class Notes.

Computer Programs:
Some homework assignments/projects require the use of the general structural reliability analysis
codes such as:
- UQLab, A framework for uncertainty quantification in Matlab. As a member of an academic
institution (university, public research center, etc.), you can get a free license for using
UQLabCore. The license is valid for one year and can be renewed free of charge as long as the
academic affiliation remains valid. https://www.uqlab.com
- FERU is a Matlab toolbox for general structural and finite element reliability analysis that
Terje Haukaas developed. The code and a User's guide are downloadable at
http://www.ce.berkeley.edu/FERUM/.

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Term Project/Paper:
Each student is required to perform a term project and submit a term paper describing the project's
results on (October 31, 2023) and make a 30-minute oral presentation on (November 21, 2023).
A one-page abstract of the term project should be submitted before the deadline (October 31, 2023).
The abstract should state the title, the student's name, a 500-word description of the proposed work,
the main objectives, the technical approach, and the expected results. The student is required to get
the instructor's approval before proceeding with the proposed work.
Possible topics include
1. [Application] Comprehensive reliability analysis or risk-quantified design of engineering components
or systems. Structural, Geotechnical, mechanical, electrical, environmental, and other components and
systems can be studied as long as the methods discussed in the course are used. Use of the programs
UQLab, FERUM, or OpenSees is strongly encouraged.
2. [Review] Critical review of state-of-the-art structural/system reliability papers. One or more papers
may be selected depending on the content. The review must be in-depth and go beyond what we have
covered in the class in that area. Reproducing the results in the paper and their extension may be
considered.
3. [Method] Development of new analytical or computational structural reliability methods and new
analytical or computational work that advances the state of the art of structural reliability theory.
4. [Programming] Development of a new computer code or module. Development of a computer code
or module to implement a specific reliability algorithm or formulation and its implementation in UQLab,
FERUM, or OpenSees.
5. [Risk communication and Decision-making] Simulation of risk assessment, communication, and
decision-making processes.
6. [Any other idea] Prior approval from the instructor is necessary.

Attendance policy:
Attendance is compulsory. A student missing 10% (6 hours) of the total allocated course hours will
receive 1st warning notice, and a student missing 15% (9 hours) will receive 2nd warning notice. A
student missing 20% (12 hours or more) will be forced to withdraw (in accordance with the university
regulations).

Plagiarism/Cheating:
Students are expected to do their own work. You are allowed to work on assignments in teams only if
specified by the instructor. In other words, students are encouraged to communicate about the general
principles of the course, but all assigned homework must be done individually. The instructor is
available to provide any assistance that you may need. Cheating is considered a serious offense by the
university. You should be aware of the severe penalty for cheating (refer to the student code of conduct
published in the university catalog).

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 Lift and shift Approach
Days missed Replaced By Notes
Mon, 27-Nov Sun, September 10
Tue, 28-Nov Sun, September 17
Wed, 29-Nov Sun, September 24
Thu, 30-Nov Sun, October 01
Mon, 04-Dec Sun, Oct 08
Tue, 05-Dec Sun, Oct 15
Midterm Exams - No Classes
Sun, October 22
Schedules
Wed, 06-Dec Sun, October 29
Thu, 07-Dec Sun, November 05

Nov 25 – 30, 2023 Final Exams - 1st Session

Final Exams Dec 01 – 03, 2023 UAE National Days
Dec 04 – 07, 2023 Final Exams - 2nd Session