Lecture-US War in Afghanistan

Why Afghanistan a graveyard of

empires?
Pak-Afghan relation
Presented by:
Muhmmad Usman Arif
Pakistan Administrative service
18th position in Pakistan, CSS 2020
 The Afghan state
In 1725 the Loya Jirga was created in Kabul; it’s a meeting of tribal chiefs, who in
1747 founded the Afghan State controlled by a monarchy of the Durrani tribe, who
since then are known as the “Durrani” of the Pashtun ethnic group, and extended
their domain through the North at the expense of Turkmen, Uzbek, and Tajik.
They also conquered certain parts of the East, in the Punjab, Kashmir and
Baluchistan. This way, they created a fragile empire mainly Pashtun,

In the decade of 1830, the Afghan asked the Russian assistance, leading to the
rejection of the British. This achievement was the spark that provoked the first of
the three Anglo-Afghan Wars which took place between 1839 and 1842. The
British had to renounce its dominance in Afghanistan, since they were defeated.
Thirty-six years later, the advancement of Russia in the region was clear, and this
started the Second Anglo-Afghan War that lasted two years. This confrontation
ended with the purchase of the Pashtun tribal chiefs’ political will. They signed
the Treaty of Rawalpindi, according to which Afghanistan became an
associated State of British India.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

The Afghan state
Great Britain recognized Afghanistan’s independence in 1919, after being defeated
during the third war.the British didn’t achieve a military victory, but political and it was
only possible through negotiations with the Pashtun chiefs.

1978 communist backed coup d'état in Afghanistan followed by treaty of

friendship, Russian intervention, Soviet Afghan WAr and later exit 1889

Taliban Govt, 9/11, Operation Enduring Freedom.

US War in Afghanistan and Peace Process, and withdrawal.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

Afghanistan? A Geopolitical
Perspective
• For many centuries, Afghanistan has been a natural corridor for conquerors
and traders that moved troops or goods from West to East, between Middle
East and India, and the other way around.
• This was the path chosen by Alexander the Great, 328 years before
Christ.
• Nowadays, Graveyard of Empires. (British, Russian (kennan's
containment Strategy) and USA
• Afghanistan is more than a corridor; it’s a crossroad of routes in
Asia.
• Afghanistan converge three geopolitical regions, where many civilizations
reside:

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

• Afghanistan emerges as one of the results of the Great Game; this is the name of the
geostrategic dispute that held the British and the Russian empires in Central Asia during
the 19th century. As they were unable to conquer Afghanistan, these powers agreed on
leaving it as a neutral state between both empires
• The Wakhan corridor, located in the Pamir Mountains, north-east of
Afghanistan, and in the extreme of which is situated China,

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

 Afghanistan as a
potential
Energy Corridor?

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

Afghanistan? Demographics?
• The total land area is 652,860 Km2 (252,071 sq. miles)
• The current population of Afghanistan is 39,667,381 Worldo- meter United Nations
data.
• Afghanistan population is equivalent to 0.5% of the total world population.
• Afghanistan ranks number 37 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population.
• The population density in Afghanistan is 60 per Km2 (154 people per mi2).
• 25.4 % of the population is urban (9,904,337 people in 2020)
• he median age in Afghanistan is 18.4 years.
• Life Expectancy is 45
• Ethnic Distribution of Afghanistan is Pushtun 42%,Tajik 27%,
Hazara 9%,Uzbeks and Turkmen of Turkish origin are the 9 %
and the 3 % respectively.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

 US entry into Afghanistan

On October 7, 2001, U.S.

President George W. Bush • Operation Enduring Freedom
launched an in- invasion of • Operation Freedoms Sentinel
Afghanistan But Why? Phase I: Toppled
9/11 Episode GWOT Launch Al Taliban Govt,
Qaeda Presence in Afghanistan Northern Alliance in
Place
Talibans Hardliner Phase II: Taliban
Defeated Militarily
Fundamentalist Governments Refusal but only transiently
to Expel AQ Phase III:
Resurgence of
Taibans Refusal to Extradite Osama Taliban
Bin Laden Phase IV: Afghan
Led Afghan Owned?
Why US Failed in Afghanistan?

“Some US officials wanted to use the war to turn Afghanistan into a

democracy. Others wanted to transform Afghan culture and elevate
women’s rights. Still others wanted to reshape the regional balance of power
among Pakistan, India, Iran and Russia.”
Hundreds of pages of official documents, obtained by The Washington Post, show that
the United States is losing the war in Afghanistan because it never had clear objectives,
says a report published on Monday.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

Why US Failed in Afghanistan?
Faulty Rationale behind war to appease masses post 9/11, jumping to preemptive war instead of exhausting other
coercive means.
Lack of clear objectives of US Forces and Allied Forces

Lack of credible replacement of the Taliban Govt- US Democratization bid did not take into account afghani
populations islamist mindset and hatred towards western liberal democracy.
Early Overconfidence of US ADM:
Premature Divergence to Iraq Midway

Predominance of Military Strategy towards Afghanistan issue: It is pertinent to mention that behind every US effort in
Afghanistan a military mind-set was there, focused only on winning the war.
Lack of unanimity in policy decisions:
Withdrawal Plan Issues:
Coercion based AF-Pak policy and invitation to India alienated Pakistan

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

 Why Afghanistan
can’t be conquered?
Ethno-Tribal Afghan landscape

Iraqi Solution Implausible in Afghan Context

due to rural insurgency:US Taliban are brutal
totalitarians and the Americans have now learnt that
the kind of success they enjoyed in Iraq cannot be
replicated in Afghanistan. In Iraq, the Americans
had more forces, a smaller population to secure and
an easy terrain than [they] faced in Afghanistan....
Afghanistan [is] also a rural insurgency as compared
to the urban insurgency in Iraq Americans were, to
an extent, able to reshape the security environment
in Iraq, but given that there are 40200 villages26 in
Afghanistan, with the majority under
Taliban’s. .control, the US has could not reshape the
security environment to its advantage.

High level social solidarity and cultural

l e g a c y of r e s i s t a n c e a g a i n s t f o r e i g n
occupations:• Difficult Terrain, suited to Low
Intensity Conflicts, Ambush, Raids
Failed Afghan government and its warlord allies were corrupt and treated Afghans
poorly, fomenting grievances and inspiring an insurgency. They stole land, distributed
government jobs as patronage, and often tricked U.S. special operations forces into targeting their
political rivals The experience of Raees Baghrani, a respected Alizai tribal leader, is typical. In
2005, after a Karzai-backed warlord disarmed him and stole some of his land and that of his
tribesmen, Baghrani surrendered the rest of his territory in Helmand to the Taliban. ( FA Magazine
Article HOW GOOD WAR WENT BAD

Narco Business- Handsome Cash Inflows to the tune of 55bn per annum

Hardliner Just Cause Jihad Ideology against ANDSF:In 2015, a survey of 1,657 police
officers in 11 provinces conducted by the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies found that only 11
percent of respondents had joined the force specifically to fight the Taliban

Foreign Involvements – Iran-KSA Rivalry, Indo-Pak Rivalry, Soviet Involvements, Harbor of

splinter groups Daesh, ISIS
The Trillion Dollar War?
• As of April 2021, more than 71,000 Afghan and
Pakistani civilians are estimated to have died as
a direct result of the war.

• Many Afghans dealing with ill health and war

wounds find it difficult to get to hospitals and
clinics because violence makes roads unsafe.

• The war has exacerbated the effects of poverty,

malnutrition, poor sanitation, lack of access to
health care, and environmental degradation on
Afghans’ health.

-Watson Institute
Pak-Afghan relations
The introductory Paragraph:
Afghanistan is one of the most important countries in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
Geographical contingency, shared faith and mutual interest are the main factors
driving Pakistan’s approach towards Afghanistan. It is the location at the gross roads
of south and central Asia further adds to its importance for Pakistan. Since its
independence Pakistan has been aspiring for friendly cordial and mutually beneficial
relations with Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan non-cooperative attitude prompted
by the internal and external vested interest particularly in the wake of cold war
perverted their full development. Pakistan had to remain prepared for the new
situation on ethnicity and faith. Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan had
never been smooth. With the sole exception four years of the Taliban rule over
Afghanistan, successive governments in Kabul have displayed varying degree of
dissatisfaction towards Islamabad.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
How this Crisis Sparked?
The story begins in 1979, when Babrak Karmal, the then leader of Afghanistan, takes some

communist steps.

◦ Nationalization of:

◦ Land

◦ Industries

◦ Natural Resources

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 27

Soviet Invasion (1979)
People resist actions of Karmal and this leads to the mass protests.
Babrak Karmal seeks help from the Soviet Union (USSR) to suppress these mass uprisings.
The Soviet Union invades Afghanistan to aid the communist government of Babrak Karmal
against the mass protests.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 28

Global Jihad
Launched by the US against the USSR
03 main players
◦ US
◦ Pakistan
◦ Saudi Arabia

These players made “Afghan Jihad” a success.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 29

Global Jihad (Cont…)
US provided the required funds, arms and the diplomatic support in making global
consensus declaring it Jihad.
Pakistan provided land and established training and recruiting centers.
Saudi Arabia built Jihadist literature, provided financial support & Arab fighters.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 30

Emergence of Taliban (1996)
In 1989, the USSR withdrew its forces.
This was followed by an intense civil war among various warlords in Afghanistan.
Some of the local mujahidin of Jihad era coalesced and emerged as Taliban.
Taliban established government in Kabul.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 31

Operation Enduring Freedom (2001)
The US blamed Osama bin Laden for the 9/11 attacks
Mullah Omer, the leader of the Taliban, refused to handover Osama bin Laden.
The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and in 2003, NATO also arrived under its Article 5.
The fighting continues for roughly 02 decades.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 32

Operation Enduring Freedom (Cont.)
Despite spending more than $6 bn on “war on terror” and being world’s largest machinery
machine, the US failed to defeat the Taliban.
Eventually, the Taliban hold over Afghanistan grew whereas the US announced to withdraw.
This led to a peace deal between the two.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 33

The US-Taliban Peace Deal
On February 29, 2020, the US and Taliban sign a peace deal in Doha, Qatar.
As per the deal:
◦ Ceasefire
◦ Withdrawal of foreign forces by May 2021
◦ Intra-Afghan negotiations
◦ Counterterrorism assurances

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 34

After the Deal?
The US began to reduce its troops.
The negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government begin.
However, the negotiations reach to the deadlock over the share over power between the two
entities in the government structure.
The Taliban increase violence.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 35

The Fall of Kabul
On 15 August, 2021, the Taliban took control over the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Now, the Taliban are in control over the whole Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is in the grip of a worst humanitarian crisis.

Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position) 36

What do Different Forces at Play in Afghanistan : Now Want in
Afghanistan?:
Pakistan?
USA?
India?
China?
Russia?
Iran?
CARs?
KSA?
Israel?
 Current Scenario
► Economy is collapsing
► Major Humanitarian Crisis is looming
► No country has yet recognised the Taliban’s
Government
Analyzing Financial
Crisis
● Rapid reduction in international grant
support, loss of access to offshore assets,
and disruption to financial linkages have led
to a major contraction of the economy,
increasing poverty, and macroeconomic
instability giving birth to an economic
crisis.
● GDP shrinked by 30 pc.
● Currency Devaluation.
● Soaring Inflation
● High Unemployment
● Shut down of Businesses

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Economic Collaspe of Afghanistan

• Afghan government was heavily dependent on foreign aid.

• Afghan government’s public expenditure was more than 50% of its GDP annually (World
Bank)

• Foreign grants amounted for 43% of GDP and 50% of budget (Clark 2021).

• Aid stopped after the fall of Kabul.

• Budget of $508 million announced for first quarter of 2022.

• Labourer in Lal wa Sar Jangal told the reporter: “I sold a blanket to buy a canister of gas,
but it wasn’t enough” (Bijlert 2021).
Humanitarian Crisis

• Collapse of formal banking sector

• Fall of Kabul and absence of government structure to provide public goods
• Ongoing Drought since 2021: Climate Change has caused change in rain patterns
and depth of snowfall.
 Poverty Rate

• More than half the country

lives in poverty
 Displaced People
84,075 families have been
displaced as a result of this
humanitarian crisis.
 Food insecurity
• 34 million which is almost 34% of
the population is food insecure.

• 98% of Afghans are experiencing

insufficient food consumption.
Reasons for Financial
Crisis

• Aid Cut-off after US Withdrawal

• Freezing of Afghan Assets worth 7 Billion Dollars
• Weak Administrative Structure
• Closure of Borders
• Restriction on Trade Routes
• People fleeing their homes
• Afghanistan Central Bank Crisis
• Loss of Jobs
• Co Vid 19 Shocks 45
 Role of Pakistan
Evacuation of stranded
diplomatic staff Increase in
Pakistan helped various states Bilateral Trade
even some US forces to Decreased tariff on various
evacuate from Afghanistan essential goods for Afghanistan.

Collective Regional
Diplomacy for Afghanistan
Aid to
Pakistan has organized OIC Afghanistan
conference and other regional
moots to discuss issue of Various trucks having the essential
Afghanistan. items arrive in Afghanistan every month.
SWOT Analysis of Taliban Government
Strengths
• Disciplined as an organization
• Fighting experience would come In
handy to resist ISIS-K
Opportunities
• To work with EU and west in wake of
humanitarian crisis
• US-China power rivalry will give
breathing space to Afghanistan
Weaknesses
• Non-inclusivity as an organization
• Closure of schools and ban on female
education
Threats
• Threat of ISIS-K
• Economic collapse and start of civil war
• Climate Change and its impacts
Future Scenarios

“Most probably the “Increase in terrorist attacks

“Chances of an
situation will remain the in the neighbouring countries
extended large scale
same” is also possible”
humanitarian crisis are
minimal ”

Scenario # 1 Scenario # 2 Scenario # 3

Implications on Pakistan
49
 Islamabad’s long-standing objective—to have a dependent
government in Kabul—has finally burned to the ground with the
presently ruling Taliban who, instead of providing any strategic
advantage or contributing to Pakistan’s security, has become a
worrisome thorn in Islamabad’s side. Not only does this have grave
implications for Pakistan’s security (such as through Kabul’s support
for the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP), but it also necessitates a
revised policy strategy to effectively deal with the situation in
neighboring Afghanistan.

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Implications on Pakistan

• Un rest in Afghanistan has always resulted in unrest

in Pakistan.
• Instances of Zia period Islamization and TTP
• Mitigating the Crisis after Taliban came into power
• PM Outlining the Crisis on Several Forums
• Hosting of OIC Meeting
• Cross Border Violence

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 Implications on Pakistan

• Refugee Crisis:
• Pakistan hosts more than 1.4 registered Afghan refugees.
After the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, many people flee
their homes to get refuge in Pakistan. Around 28,000 Afghan
refugees have migrated to Pakistan this year

• Dollar Smuggling.
• Smuggling of Goods.
• Burden on Infrastructure.
• Positive Implications.

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FIVE RECURRING DRIVERS IN PAK-AFGHAN
RELATIONSHIP

sovereignty security geopolitical

concerns interests dynamics

cross- connectivity
border ties and trade
 1. POLITICAL IMPACTS OF TALIBAN RULE

• The situation can lead towards regional proxy war because of foreign terror
fighters (FTFs)
• TTP for Pakistan and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) for
Uzbekistan who were not able to move that freely in the past due to the
presence of US forces.
• To avoid such chaotic condition, Pakistan was against an arbitrary Taliban
rule by use of force.
• Positively, it will end India’s investment for India’s covert objectives against
Pakistan.
• Pakistan has come closer to achieving its long-sought “strategic depth” in
Afghanistan, but there is a mixed feeling about the victory of the Taliban.
• Taliban rule in Afghanistan may affect the Pakistan-US relationship
due to Pakistan’s alliance with the Taliban.
• There are also chance of Pakistan facing sanctions in wake of
supporting Taliban government.
 2. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TALIBAN RULE

• Pakistan’s economic interests in Afghanistan involves;

• 1) Loss of Exports;
• 2) Economic Cooperation
• 3) Financial Strain of Refugees
• 3) Access and seeks for the new markets in the far-reaching areas;
• 4) To provide sea routes to the trade of Afghanistan after the
construction of CPEC;
• 5) Economic Fallout
3. SOCIAL IMPACT OF TALIBAN RULE

• The return of Taliban can embolden the Islamic fundamentalist

elements in Pakistan for arguing in favor of a conservative brand of
Islam replicating Taliban in Afghanistan.
4. SECURITY IMPACT OF TALIBAN RULE

• After the withdrawal of US forces, Pakistan can also face security

concerns from Afghanistan where there have been considerable
indications of the presence of Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK).
• Pakistan has not been able to convince the Afghan Taliban to break
links with Afghanistan-based outfits such as al-Qaeda.
• Afghan Taliban continues to challenge Pakistani territorial integrity by
rejecting the Durand Line—the TTP is concurrently pressing for a
reversal to the merger of the former Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
The Afghan Taliban have coddled the TTP since the
Republic’s collapse
• Since coming to power on August 15, 2022, the Afghan Taliban have
taken four questionable steps in support of the TTP that are
conspicuously against Pakistan’s interests and security:
1. Operational support:
2. Pushing for Pakistani accomodation:
3. Ongoing refusal to recognize the Durand Line:
4. Openness to engaging India:
Implications on Pakistan (Cont…)

The issue of Durand Line

• Pakistan and Afghanistan share a 2,600 kilometre-border, also called the Durand Line. The demarcation
agreement was signed in 1893 between the then Afghan ruler, King Abdul Rahman Khan and Sir
Mortimer Durand, the foreign secretary for British India. Today the Durand Line constitutes part of the
border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Enayatullah Khwarzmi, the Afghan Defence Ministry spokesman, had earlier said that Pakistan had no
right to fence the border. He had said that the move was “inappropriate and against the law”.

60
• Genesis of the dispute
• After the fall of the Durrani dynasty in the 18th century, the Pashtun empire
disintegrated and the British eventually extended their control to the region.
But the hinterlands were always a tough area to govern. When the two
Anglo-Afghan wars (1838-42 and 1878-80) failed to expand British influence
and tame the belligerent tribal groups, a policy reassessment was
undertaken. Fearing Russian advancement towards Central Asia, and a
possible attack from the Pashtun tribes on their settled populations, a multi-
layered defence mechanism—a tripartite frontier—was postulated with three
concentric frontiers: The first at the foothills of the Sulaiman hills, till where
the British had formal control; the second where the vassal states under the
‘influence’ of British were located; and the final buffer which was Afghanistan
itself.
• The Foreign Secretary, Sir Mortimer Durand was despatched to sign an
agreement with the Amir of Afghanistan, Abdur Rahman. Inked on 12
November 1893, the Durand line demarcated the Pashtun-inhabited region,
creating a cleavage amongst the people who shared the same culture and
ethnicity and didn’t identify with either of the two parties. The agreement,
apart from ensuring protection in case of a Russian assault, gave Britain
access to major trade and access routes and complemented its strategy of
divide and rule to curb the burgeoning Pashtun nationalism.

61
• Both sides agreed to limit their area of influence and refrain from
interfering into the territories of the other. In exchange for the 40,000
square miles of area which Afghanistan lost; the British increased their
grant to 60,000 pounds a year and assured protection in any
eventuality. Boundary commissions were formed, with the final
boundary delineated in 1897. Protests soon erupted, with tribes
resisting the line, a resistance continuing till the present. At a Loya
Jirga (tribal assembly) in 1949, Afghanistan unilaterally withdrew from
the agreement. This position has remained unchanged, irrespective of
who is at the helm in the country.

62
Recommendations

Collective Regional Approach Aid for Humanitarian-

Development-Peace Nexus
A framework to be designed to award
recognition to Taliban in return for demands of Aid for humanitarian purpose is
human rights etc. not enough.

Flow of aid and HR to provide CT approach by regional

help on economy countries

Money and experts to help Regional countries should

on the matters of economy. be ready if the situation
explodes.
 How should Islamabad respond to threat posed by Afghan
Taliban and TTP burgeoning alliance ?
1. Fence the border.
2. Negotiate with the TTP without the Afghan Taliban
3. Address the grievances of Pakistani Pashtuns
4. Open a dialogue with arch-rival India
5. Push for regional economic integration
Conclusion

● Afghanistan is in dire need of humanitarian assistance.

● World should engage with Taliban to create a framework which fulfills the
demands of international community as well as alleviate the suffering of people of
Afghanistan.

● Also, there is a need to accept local conditions and the extent of reforms that can
happen overnight.

● “Rome wasn’t built in a day, so Afghanistan will also take time”.

 References

• Bijlert, Martin Van. afghanistan-analysts.org. Dec 7, 2021. https://www.afghanistan-

analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/living-in-a-collapsed-economy-1-a-
cook-a-labourer-a-migrant-worker-a-small-trader-and-a-factory-owner-tell-us-what-their-lives-look-
like-now/.
• Clark, Kate. www.afghanistan-analysts.org. Nov 11, 2021. https://www.afghanistan-
analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/killing-the-goose-that-laid-the-golden-
egg-afghanistans-economic-distress-post-15-august/.
• Hussain, Rizwan. Pakistan and the Emergence of Islamic Militancy in Afghanistan. 2005.
• Kirby, Jen. Vox.com. Sep 21, 2021. https://www.vox.com/22665508/taliban-afghanistan-prime-
minister-supreme-leader-hassan-haibatullah.
• Loanes, Ellen. Vox.com. Jan 22, 2022. https://www.vox.com/2022/1/22/22896235/afghanistan-
poverty-famine-winter-humanitarian-crisis-sanctions.
• Stimson Centre . "A step by step roadmap for Action on Afghanistan." Policy Brief, 2021.
• UNDP. "Economic Instability and Uncertainty in Afghanistan after August 15." 2021.
• United Nations . "United Nations Humanitarian Overview ." Yearly Report, 2022.
Thank you for your patience!