Start Date 1/1/2016

Duration
Project ID Task ID Name Dependencies Best
A Planning
A.100 Construction Plan 15
A.200 Hiring Plan 15
A.300 Plan Review A.100, A.200 10

B Construction
B.100 Construction: Task 1 A.300 60
B.200 Construction: Task 2 A.300 60
B.300 Construction: Task 3 A.300 30

C Review
C.100 Construction Review B.100,B.200,B.300 15
C.200 Internal Review A.300 15
C.300 Compliance Review C.100, A.300 15
C.400 Compliance / Completion C.200, C.300 15
C.500 Project Review C.200, C.400 10

Completion Date
 Best Case Expected
Expected Worst Sample Start End Start

30 45 21 1/1/2016 1/16/2016 15 1/1/2016

30 45 34 1/1/2016 1/16/2016 15 1/1/2016
15 30 17 1/17/2016 1/27/2016 10 2/1/2016

90 120 90 1/28/2016 3/28/2016 60 2/17/2016

90 120 106 1/28/2016 3/28/2016 60 2/17/2016
45 100 53 1/28/2016 2/27/2016 30 2/17/2016

30 60 29 3/29/2016 4/13/2016 15 5/18/2016

30 60 24 1/28/2016 2/12/2016 15 2/17/2016
30 60 40 4/14/2016 4/29/2016 15 6/18/2016
30 60 34 4/30/2016 5/15/2016 15 7/19/2016
15 20 15 5/16/2016 5/26/2016 10 8/19/2016

5/26/2016 146
 Worst Case MC Simulation
End Start End Start End

1/31/2016 30 1/1/2016 2/15/2016 45 1/1/2016 1/22/2016 21

1/31/2016 30 1/1/2016 2/15/2016 45 1/1/2016 2/4/2016 34
2/16/2016 15 2/16/2016 3/17/2016 30 2/5/2016 2/22/2016 17

5/17/2016 90 3/18/2016 7/16/2016 120 2/23/2016 5/23/2016 90

5/17/2016 90 3/18/2016 7/16/2016 120 2/23/2016 6/8/2016 106
4/2/2016 45 3/18/2016 6/26/2016 100 2/23/2016 4/16/2016 53

6/17/2016 30 7/17/2016 9/15/2016 60 6/9/2016 7/8/2016 29

3/18/2016 30 3/18/2016 5/17/2016 60 2/23/2016 3/18/2016 24
7/18/2016 30 9/16/2016 11/15/2016 60 7/9/2016 8/18/2016 40
8/18/2016 30 11/16/2016 1/15/2017 60 8/19/2016 9/22/2016 34
9/3/2016 15 1/16/2017 2/5/2017 20 9/23/2016 10/8/2016 15

9/3/2016 246 2/5/2017 401 10/8/2016 281

MC Analysis
Min Max Mean R2 Rank

16 44 30.0 5% 6 21%
16 44 30.0 3% 8 16%
10 28 16.7 4% 7 21%

62 118 90.0 6% 5 24%

61 118 90.0 11% 4 33%
30 92 51.7 0% 10 7%

16 56 32.5 21% 3 45%

16 56 32.5 0% 11 -3%
15 57 32.5 22% 2 47%
16 57 32.5 25% 1 50%
10 20 15.0 1% 9 10%

203 337 265.1

Construction Plan Plan Review Construction: Task 1
Hiring Plan Construction: Task 2
Construction: Task 3

Internal Review

Project Completion Time: Cumulative Probability

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
0 7 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 3 0 7 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 3
21 21 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 32 32 33 34

Original Model Days Date

Expected Completion 246 9/3/2016
Best-Case 146 5/26/2016
Worst-Case 401 2/5/2017

Probability Analysis Days Date Probability

Completion within "Expected" 246 9/3/2016 16.4%
- within 10% overrun 271 9/28/2016 62.8%
- within 20% overrun 296 10/23/2016 95.4%

Minimum 203 7/22/2016

Maximum 337 12/3/2016
Average 265 9/22/2016

Confidence Ranges Days Date

75% Confidence 278 10/5/2016
80% Confidence 281 10/8/2016
90% Confidence 289 10/16/2016
Construction Review

Compliance Review Compliance / Completion

Contribution to Overall Project Variance

Construc-
tion: Task
1; 6% Construction: Task 2; 11%
Construc-
tion Plan;
5%

Plan Re-
view; 4%

Project
Review; Construction Review; 21%
1%
Hiring Plan; 3%
Construc-
tion: Task
3; 0%
Internal
Review;
0%
Compliance / Completion; 25%

Compliance Review; 22%

 Project Review

on Review; 21%

Review; 22%
Histogram Data Sorted R2 Values
Completion Time Probability Cumulative Index Row
210 0% 0% 11 12
217 0% 0% 10 8
224 0% 0% 9 15
231 2% 1% 8 2
238 5% 3% 7 3
245 8% 8% 6 1
252 9% 15% 5 6
259 15% 25% 4 7
266 15% 39% 3 11
273 12% 54% 2 13
280 12% 67% 1 14
287 9% 79%
294 7% 88%
301 3% 94%
308 2% 97%
315 1% 99%
322 0% 99%
329 0% 100%
336 0% 100%
343 0% 100%
Label Value
Internal Review 0%
Construction: Task 3 0%
Project Review 1%
Hiring Plan 3%
Plan Review 4%
Construction Plan 5%
Construction: Task 1 6%
Construction: Task 2 11%
Construction Review 21%
Compliance Review 22%
Compliance / Completion 25%