Prepared by Schumann Andrade

Inductive argumentation
Generalization by enumeration and statistics
Logic and critical thinking

Name: Betty Juliana Arevalo

Evaluate the following arguments. To do so, apply the following steps:

Steps 5 and 6 are mandatory

1. Read well.
2. Identify and normalize the final conclusion of the argument.
3. Identify the premise and conclusion indicators.
4. Diagram the argument.
5. Outline the argument and write the name of the outline used.
5.1. Symbolize
5.2. Formalize
6. Apply the corresponding critical questions and examine whether the argument incurs a fallacy.

Exercise 1 Write the definition of each of the fallacies or errors in the inductive reasoning of inductive arguments
of generalization by enumeration and of statistical arguments offered by (Govier, T.) (2010) A practical Study of
argument. Thomson, Belmont. pp. 275-282.).

Sampling bias: Sampling bias, sometimes also called selection effect, is a distortion that is introduced due to
the way the sample is selected. Refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis due to the method of sample
collection. If sampling bias is not taken into account, then some proposed conclusions may be erroneous.

Hasty generalization: In logic, hasty generalization, biased showing or According to whom is a fallacy
committed by inferring a general conclusion from insufficient evidence. A hasty generalization may lead to a
bad induction and thus to a wrong conclusion.

Anecdotal arguments: The fallacy of anecdotal evidence is a fallacy that consists in establishing a generalized
conclusion from isolated or anecdotal facts. Fallacy of composition: The fallacy of composition is a fallacy that
consists in inferring that something is true about a set or group only because it is true about one or several of
its parts or components.

fallacy of division: The fallacy of division is a fallacy that consists of inferring that something is true about one
or several parts of a whole, because it is true about the compound of which it is a part.1
 Prepared by Schumann Andrade
Inductive argumentation
Generalization by enumeration and statistics

Exercise 2. Arguments by simple enumeration using examples

a. Read carefully the following excerpt taken from http://eltiempo.terra.com.co/.

The Who guitarist warns of danger of deafness from iPod volume abuse
Pete Townshend, famous for breaking guitars in the sixties, confesses that he has suspended recording
sessions due to hearing problems.
"I have unwittingly helped invent and develop a type of music that causes deafness to its prime movers,"
says the 60-year-old musician in a confession on his Internet portal.
The British musician does not attribute his current problems to the excessive volume of The Who's
concerts in the 80s but to the sounds emitted by headphones in the recording studio and points out in
particular the risk of abuse of the 'iPod' (small music player in MP3 format).
"My intuition tells me that (those who abuse hearing aids) are going to have problems," warns the
musician.
Townshend explains that he has had to postpone his collaboration with Roger Daltrey on The Who's first
recorded album in a quarter of a century, as well as their planned world tour because of the constant
ringing in his ears.
Musicians are especially vulnerable to hearing loss. Phil Collins, 54, has lost 60 percent of his hearing,
while American rapper Foxy Brown is to undergo surgery after becoming almost totally deaf.

1. Identify and outline the argument by simple enumeration contained in the above fragment.
a. Symbolize
a1 is F - a1 is b an: the entire sample F=musicians
a2 is F - a2 is b --> an is F b= are particularly vulnerable to
a3 is F - a3 is b hearing loss

b. Formalize

Pete is a musician--> Pete is especially vulnerable to loss of hearing Phil is a musician--> Phil is especially vulnerable to loss of hearing
Foxy is a musician--> Foxy is especially vulnerable to loss of hearing

THEREFORE: all musicians are especially vulnerable to hearing loss.

2. Evaluate the outline argument using the critical questions.

population: musicians characteristics= b
sample: a1, a2, a3 Do the examples presented represent all musicians? NO
sample size: 3 - -> no : properties
population size: the text does not define it. - -> yes: properties in premises than in conclusion
assumed to be large population ?NO
- sample is biased
- fallacy of hasty generalization
Exercise 3 Statistical arguments - not highly probable, medium to low probable
- the form is as it is written: fallacious argument
Prepared by Schumann Andrade
Inductive argumentation
Generalization by enumeration and statistics
a. Read carefully the following excerpt taken from: http://eltiempo.terra.com.co/

Coffee may reduce breast cancer risks, according to Canadian study

The study, published in the International Journal of Cancer, was conducted on 1,690 women in Canada,
the United States, Israel and Poland.
"Among women who drink six cups of coffee or more per day, we found a nearly 75 percent drop in the
occurrence of breast cancer," said Steve Narod, a researcher at the University of Toronto and one of the
world's leading specialists in the field, who led the study.
The study focused on women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutations, which carry a breast cancer risk of
up to 80 percent.
Professor Narod was also a member of the international team that discovered and isolated these genes a
decade ago.
The positive results particularly involved women carrying the BRCA1 gene, who accounted for 77 percent
of those studied.
According to the study, women who consume one to three cups of coffee per day reduce their risk of
breast cancer by 10 percent. The figure rises to 25 percent for consumption of four to five cups and up to
69 percent for higher consumption. Decaffeinated beverages have no impact.

1. Identify and outline the statistical argument contained in the above fragment.
a: Symbolize

f: women
b: consumption of cups of coffee
h: reduced the risk of cancer by 75%.
s(sample): women from canada, usa, israel and poland with BCRA1 and 2 mutation genes
m(size): 1690

b. Formalize
100%(n%) of the women(f) observed in the sample of women from canada, usa, israel and poland with BCRA1 and 2(s) gene
mutation have a consumption of 6 or more cups of coffee in a day and reduced their risk of breast cancer by 75%(h). the sample
has a size (m) of 1690 women and was chosen using a biased method WITHOUT REPLACEMENT OF ALL WOMEN (f) therefore,
ALL women who drink coffee reduce the risk of breast cancer.

2. Evaluate the outline argument by formulating and answering critical questions.

Population: women
Sample: women from Canada, USA, Israel and Poland with BCRA1 and 2 gene mutation.
sample size: 1690
Population size: the text does not define it but it is assumed to be large.
characteristics: have a consumption of six cups of coffee or more per day and reduce the risk of suffering cancer by 75% uniformity
of the population: not uniform.
sample selection: biased.
non-representative sample, fallacy of hasty generalization, is moderately or lowly probable, is a fallacious argument.
 Prepared by Schumann Andrade
Inductive argumentation
Generalization by enumeration and statistics

b. Read carefully the following excerpt taken from: http://eltiempo.terra.com.co/

January 22, 2007

The world of technology

Virtual communities
Guillermo Santos Calderón. Columnist for El Tiempo. mailto:

［…］

There is a report prepared by the USC Annenberg School entitled 'Digital Future Report', which studies the behavior
of people when they are connected to the Internet. The 2007 report highlights some very telling and illustrative
behaviors of North Americans regarding the importance of the Internet in our lives.

Forty-three percent of users who are members of an Internet community said they feel the same sense of belonging
to the virtual community as they do to their other real-world communities. Fifty-seven percent of them participate at
least once a day in the virtual one, which is impossible to do in the physical one. 70% state that they always or at
least once interact with other members when they enter the virtual community. 65% said they actively participate in
causes or issues that were new to them at the time they joined the virtual community.

1. Identify and outline the statistical argument contained in the above fragment.
population: internet users
sample: North American users who are members of an Internet community.
G: claim to have the same feeling of belonging to the virtual community as to their other real-world communities sample size: not specified, assumed
to be large, chosen by the biased method without replacement of the totality of internet users
43% of users who use the Internet observed in the sample of North American users who are members of a virtual community and claim to feel the
same sense of belonging to their virtual communities as they do to their face-to-face communities.

2. Evaluate the schematic argument.

population: internet users
sample: north americans who are part of a virtusl community
sample size: not specified
population size: not specified
characteristic: same sense of belonging to the virtual community as to its other real-world communities uniformity of the population: it is not uniform
sample selection: biased
fallacy of hasty generalization (only a small part of the population is taken into account, which is not representative)

Exercise 4 construction of statistical arguments

Write a survey data sheet

Population:
 Prepared by Schumann Andrade
Inductive argumentation
Generalization by enumeration and statistics

inhabitants of Colombia

Sample:

1488 subjects from 432 households

Margin of error:

I did not find it in any profe survey.

Other information:

we want to establish the variations in the nutritional status and malnutrition of the household
due to the effects of food insecurity.

a. Determine and write down the characteristics of the sample.

A total of 1488 subjects provided information. The age range ranged from 10 days to 88.6 years. The
average age of the men was 30.6 years and the average age of the women was 31.7 years. The
prevalence of underweight was 1.7%, overweight 38.6%. The weight deficit does not differ according to
sex, 2.4% in men and 3.3% in women; in excess weight, women are at a disadvantage, 59.4% versus
40.6% in men, respectively. The 217 subjects (14.6%) receiving food support consumed on average 100
calories less than those not receiving support.

b. Determine and write down the characteristics of the population.

In Colombia, poverty is measured using different methodologies. Some show that during the last few
years there has been a decrease, from 53.7% to 45.5% in the period 2000 -2009(16, 17). The existence
of different methodologies, as well as poverty in these magnitudes favored the use of scales to
measure the concept of food insecurity at the household level (INSA). In Colombia, according to the
last survey, the weight-for-height deficit in children under 60 months was 0.9% and the excess was
5.2%; in children from 5 to 17 years of age, the deficit was 2.1% and the excess was 4.1%. In adults,
excess weight was 57% for men and 43% for women.

c. Based on the information found write a conclusion.

the new study did not give results very different from the previous ones corroborating the right skew
of the weight-for-height distribution, recognized as the obesity epidemic. Here, excess weight
increases gradually as one changes in the group, with a clear trend: when reaching the age of 18
years, the probability of excess weight increases 3.6 times, the risk increases from 9.1% to 33.1%. As
in other studies carried out in the Colombian population, the disadvantage of women for both the
deficit and the excess was evidenced by the fact that all the variables studied are statistically
associated with nutritional status.However, when adjusting the effect of these variables within the
multinomial model, only five variables remain, two associated with weight deficit (schooling and
geographic area) and three with excess weight (sex, age and receiving food support).

d. Based on the information from the survey, write the premises that support the above conclusion. The number of
premises does not correspond to the number of premises you must write, at least write five (5) premises.
Premise 2 women have a disadvantage for being underweight or overweight

Premise 3 overweight gradually increases with the change of age group: being 18 years old increases the probability of beingoverweight

Premise 4 at 18, the probability of having excess increases from 9.1% to 33.1%.

Premise 5 ______________________________________________________________________________________
Premise 6 ______________________________________________________________________________________
Premise 7 ______________________________________________________________________________________