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Case Study

Corporate Profile

Steppe Cement Ltd


Attachments
• Extracts from the 2018 Annual Report: Highlights and Market Data, Chairman and CEO Statements, Group
structure, Board of Directors and Senior Management – pages 4 - 17
• Fitch Ratings Navigator: Kazakhstan: April 2019 (affirmed at BBB/stable)

Introduction and Operations


Steppe Cement Ltd (SCL), incorporated in Malaysia is the ultimate holding company for two main operating
companies, Karcement JSC and Central Asia Cement JSC (CAC) that operate the cement manufacturing
complex at Karaganda in central Kazakhstan. Steppe is the market leader in Kazakhstan with a market share
of 20% in 2018, and has been listed on the AIM in London in September 2005, with a market capitalisation of
just over GBP 60m in August 2019.

CAC is the privatised entity of the former nationalised cement industry in Kazakhstan. the first production
began in the 1950s and was expanded until the company was producing and selling 3 million tonnes of
cement annually between 1988 and 1990. Economic conditions deteriorated in the early 1990’s resulting in
the dramatic closing of capacity. The company was privatised in 1996, and CAC was acquired by Malaysian
interests in 1998. At that point the Russian crisis sent local Kazakh demand for cement to below 1 million
tonnes per annum, down from a peak of over 8 million tonnes in 1990. However, by the new millennium,
demand had recovered to the point where cement consumption has been growing again.

In October 2008, the Group produced its first clinker from dry line 6 alongside operation of wet lines at a
reduced pace and aimed to avoid build-up of inventories by balancing production with demand. Line 5
(estimated total capacity of 1,300ktpa) commenced production from October 2013. During 2014, Steppe
Cement Ltd completed the transition to a fully dry process method of cement production and in October the
remaining four wet lines of CAC were shut down.

SCL operates entirely in the Karaganda region of Kazakhstan. CAC's plant is located in Aktau, a village 40km
north of Karaganda city and 180km to the south of Astana, the new capital of Kazakhstan. SCL has
foreign/expatriate expertise in management, at plant level, and at the board level.

With a total area of about 128.1 hectares, its most important raw materials, limestone and clay , are extracted
from two quarries nearby. Deposits are sufficient to meet current production needs in excess of 100 years
and SCL has extended its agreement to extract loam and limestone deposits from these quarries from 2019
until 2043. CAC has the benefit of its central location in the country but due to the disused lines has been
operating well below its potential capacity. In the past years the company has st eadily converted its capacity
from a ‘wet kiln’ process to ‘dry kiln’. Not only is this seen as less taxing on the environment, it also allowed
the company to reduce its operating costs. SCL considers itself the low-cost producer of Kazakhstan,
especially since the dry lines which now account for all SCL’s production consume less energy than the wet
lines.

Sources: Steppe Cement website, annual reports and announcements


www.fitchlearning.com AIM admission document, Fitch Ratings, Bloomberg
U
Case Study
Corporate Profile
Financial Performance
Steppe Cement is a holding company and does not have any operating activities. Details of the development
of SCL Group’s operations are shown in the Appendix and the Group’s financial performance is discussed in
the CEO’s statement from the 2018 Annual report.

Management and Ownership


Full details of the Board of Directors and senior management teams of the two operating companies are given
in pages 15 - 17 of the 2018 Annual Report.

As of 23 rd July 2019. The above table excludes the shareholdings of significant shareholder, Michael Wilson and Partners, Limited who
last notified shareholdings of 13,407,852 shares to the company on 14 May 2009. Since then, the company did not receive any further
update on the shareholdings from this shareholder.

Capital Structure Considerations


AIM listing and share issuance
SCL was listed on the AIM in London in September 2005 and raised USD21m by the issue of 14 million new
shares in March 2006 in order to finance the refurbishment of two large dry -process kilns by Karcement JSC.
SCL secured loans from local banks for KZT 2.7bn (USD22m) and agreed Credit lines for the issue of L/Cs of
USD46m.

Subsequent to the AIM listing and share offering KarCement JSC and Central Asia Cement have continued to
raise funding in the bank and bond markets, predominantly in the bank market in US Dollars, to finance the
refurbishment of the dry cement lines undertaken by Karcement JSC, as well as providing for working capital

Sources: Steppe Cement website, annual reports and announcements


www.fitchlearning.com AIM admission document, Fitch Ratings, Bloomberg
Case Study
Corporate Profile
requirements. Some bank loans are provided in domestic currency by local banks. Steppe Cement also
successfully raised funds through additional share offerings, to repay bank loans and bonds, finance
refurbishment of dry lines (capex) as well as for working capital purposes.

Credit ratings
CAC was assigned an ‘A’ rating by ‘Expert RA Kazakhstan’, a local rating agency in 2012, in anticipation of a
KZT2.5bn bond issue, guaranteed by the parent company Steppe Cement Limited, to fund the refurbishment
of Line 5 (total cost estimated at USD35m). In October 2012 Fitch Ratings assigned CAC a Long-Term Rating
of ‘BB-(kaz)’ with a stable outlook. Fitch also assigned the KZT1.5bn bond issue a rating of ‘B (kaz)’. This
rating was affirmed and withdrawn-in September 2013 as SCL were no longer prepared to participate in the
rating process.

Debt
Full details of the bank loans at end 2018 are given in note 19 of the annual reports, summarised here:

As at 31 December 2018, USD 7.8m is available for drawdown under the government-subsidised term loan
provided by Halyk Bank JSC.
Sources: Steppe Cement website, annual reports and announcements
www.fitchlearning.com AIM admission document, Fitch Ratings, Bloomberg
Case Study
Corporate Profile

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Sources: Steppe Cement website, annual reports and announcements


www.fitchlearning.com AIM admission document, Fitch Ratings, Bloomberg
Kazakhstan ESG Relevance:
Ratings Navigator
Sovereigns
Ratings Navigator Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) Output1 BBB- Qualitative Overlay (QO)2 +1 BBB

SRM Predicted Notch


Publish Date: April 2019 Factors Structural Macroeconomic Public Finances External Finances Factors Long-Term FC IDR3
Rating Adjustment

Ratings Outlooks Weights(%) 54.7 10.5 16.7 18.1


Long-Term FC IDR BBB Stable Percent Rank4 AAA Structural -1 AAA

Long-Term LC IDR BBB Stable AA+ Political Stability & Capacity AA+
90-100
Short-Term FC IDR F2 AA Financial Sector Risks AA

Short-Term LC IDR F2 AA- Business Environment AA-


80-90
Country Ceiling BBB+ A+ Macroeconomic 0 A+

Rating History A Policy Credibility & Coherence A


70-80
Date LT FC IDR Action A- GDP Growth Outlook A-
22-Mar-19 BBB Stable Affirmed BBB+ Macro Stability BBB+
60-70
28-Sep-18 BBB Stable Affirmed BBB Public Finances +1 BBB
13-Apr-18 BBB Stable Affirmed BBB- Fiscal Financing Flexibility BBB-
50-60
5
20-Oct-17 BBB Stable Affirmed BB+ Public Debt Sustainability BB+
21-Apr-17 BBB Stable Affirmed BB Fiscal Structure BB
40-50
28-Oct-16 BBB Stable Affirmed BB- External Finances +1 BB-
29-Apr-16 BBB Stable Downgrade B+ External Financing Flexibility B+
30-40
30-Oct-15 BBB+ Stable Affirmed B External Debt Sustainability B
01-May-15 BBB+ Stable Affirmed B- Vulnerability to Shocks B-
20-30
07-Nov-14 BBB+ Stable Affirmed CCC or Below CCC+/CCC/CCC-
09-May-14 BBB+ Stable Affirmed Total QO Adjustment +1 CC
10-20
14-Nov-13 BBB+ Stable Affirmed C
20-Nov-12 BBB+ Stable Upgrade RD
0-10
21-Nov-11 BBB Positive Upgrade D
1
Bar Chart Legend See page 2 for full list of SRM indicators and data points. Summary Strengths & Weaknesses (SRM + QO)
2
Vertical Bar Height = Percent Rank vs all Sovereigns Adjustment framework. Maximum total net notching restricted to +3 to or -3, except in certain circumstances. Structural Macroeconomic Public Finances External Finances
3
6
Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (the "Sovereign rating") is equal to the SRM predicted rating plus the QO
Bar Colors = Relative Influence of Rating Factor in SRM adjustment. Status Weakness Neutral Strength Strength

n Higher Influence (Sovereign Data) 4


Relative to all rated Sovereigns. Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable

n
5
Moderate Influence (Sovereign Data) And contingent liabilities.

n
6
Relative influence is fixed across all sovereigns, and reflects the relative weight of each rating factor in the SRM.
Lower Influence (Sovereign Data)
n Peer Data (Rating Category Median) Rating Drivers Rating Sensitivities
Bar Arrows = Rating Factor Outlook
The sovereign external balance sheet remains a key rating strength with sovereign net foreign Positives
Strong Sovereign
 Positive  Negative
Balance Sheet
assets at 43.8% of GDP at end-2018. Assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan (NFRK) Improved governance indicators and strengthening of the policy mix, to be more closely aligned with
Governance and Policy 'BBB' rated peers.
 Evolving  Stable
accounted for 33% of GDP in 2018 (USD57.7 billion).

u Peer Median We expects the fiscal deficit to widen, as the government adopts a looser fiscal stance, following
Relevant Criteria Looser Fiscal Stance a reshuffling of the government in February and announcement by the former president of a
new large social programme. Banking Sector Sustainable improvement in the health of the banking sector.
Sovereign Rating Criteria (Jul 2018)
The current account will turn back into deficit in 2019-2020, due to rising consumer spending
Robust External
and large investments, but will be financed by sustained FDI inflows, and international reserves
Country Ceilings Criteria (Jul 2018) Financing of the National Bank of Kazakhstan cover 12.7 months of imports. Resilience to Shocks Improvement in the economy's and public finances' resilience to commodity price shocks.

Progress in implementing the structural reform agenda is ongoing, but diversification will remain Negatives
High Commodity
very gradual. Oil and metals still accounts for 40% of GDP, and oil revenues represent 43% and
Dependence 63% of fiscal and good export receipts. Policy Mix Policies that widen the fiscal deficit or undermine monetary policy credibility.

GGGD is estimated 19.4% of GDP in 2018, half that of the current 'BBB' median. Fitch
Low GGGD; Contingent considers that further state support for the banking sector may be needed, but would not
materially undermine the sovereign's balance sheet. Materialisation of additional significant contingent liabilities from the banking sector on the public sector
Liabilities Contingent Liabilities balance sheet.

Analysts World Bank's governance indicators represent a rating weakness. Recent political
Governance; Political
Marina Stefani (+44 20 3530 1809) developments have ushered in the first leadership change since independence. We expects
Transition former president Nazarbayev to retain considerable influence.
Erich Arispe (+44 20 3530 1753)
Kazakhstan Ratings Navigator
Sovereigns

Sovereign Rating Model Peers SRM and Sovereign Ratings


Model Framework Country Rating Category Data Long- AAA AAA
Term FC Country AA+ AA+
Indicator Data point Weight Data SRM BB BBB A IDR AA AA
AA- AA-
(%) (Notches) Median Median Median A+ A+
A A
Structural 54.7 5.01 BBB+ Andorra A- A-
BBB+ BBB+
Composite governance indicators Latest, percentile 19.6 38.7 2.9 44.0 58.2 75.0 Mexico BBB BBB
BBB- BBB-
GDP per capita Latest, percentile 13.6 47.3 2.1 31.3 48.6 65.2 Peru BB+ BB+
BB BB
Share in world GDP (%) Latest 12.8 0.2 -0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 Thailand BB- BB-
B+ B+
Inverse years since Default/Restructuring ⁴ Declining weight 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 B B
B- B-
Broad money (% of GDP) Latest 2.1 34.6 1.0 47.4 60.0 85.5 BBB Kazakhstan CCC or Below CCC or Below
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Macroeconomic 10.5 -0.64 Bulgaria Actual LTFC Rating SRM Rating

Real GDP volatility (standard deviation) 10-year 5.4 2.4 -0.7 2.5 3.0 2.6 Colombia Note1: For January-June, SRM result is based on the previous year’s data. For July-December, SRM result is based on
the current year’s data. Note 2: Historic SRM Ratings are based
CPI (%) - yoy change in annual average 3 year centred avg 2.5 6.2 -0.3 5.0 3.4 2.4 Hungary on latest data and may differ from the SRM Rating as at the time of previous rating reviews.

Real GDP growth (%) 3 year centred avg 2.7 3.9 0.3 4.2 3.6 3.8 Indonesia

Public finances 16.7 -0.91 Italy Forecast Summary Tables


Gross general govt debt (% of GDP) 3 year centred avg 7.9 19.6 -0.4 38.9 36.2 41.7 Panama Indicator 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f
General govt interest (% of Revenue) 3 year centred avg 4.0 4.9 -0.2 9.4 7.1 4.7 Philippines
Real GDP growth (%) 1.1 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.2
General govt budget balance (% of GDP) 3 year centred avg 3.2 -3.0 -0.2 -2.7 -2.3 -2.2 Portugal
Public foreign-currency debt (% of GGGD) 3 year centred avg 1.5 34.4 -0.1 61.5 35.5 13.8 CPI (%) - yoy change in annual
14.4 7.4 6.0 5.3 4.5
average
External finances 18.1 0.07 BBB- Aruba
Reserve currency (share in global FX) ⁵ Declining weight 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cyprus, Republic of
Unemployment rate (%) 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9
Sovereign net foreign assets (% of GDP) 3 year centred avg 5.8 45.9 0.5 -2.6 2.6 11.2 India
Commodity dependence (% of CXR) Latest 1.7 77.0 -0.5 21.8 20.0 11.5 Morocco Short-term interest rate (annual
12.0 10.3 9.3 9.0 8.8
avg%)
Reserves (months of CXP) [for RC = 0 only] Latest 1.1 12.7 0.3 4.3 4.9 3.6 Romania
External interest service (% of CXR) 3 year centred avg 1.2 10.2 -0.2 4.0 4.3 2.5 Russia General govt budget balance (% of
-5.4 -6.4 -0.6 -1.8 -1.9
GDP)
CAB + Net FDI (% of GDP) 3 year centred avg 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.9 0.6 2.6 San Marino

Intercept term 1 3.94 Uruguay


2
Gross general govt debt (% of GDP) 19.0 19.9 19.4 19.5 19.7
Total 100 7.47
SRM predicted rating BBB-
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.5 -3.4 0.5 -1.1 -2.1
SRM override flag and applied rating 3 No n.a.

Net external debt (% of GDP) 23.2 23.6 16.6 15.8 14.6


1
The intercept term is constant across all sovereigns.
2
Total maps to LT FC rating scale as follows: < 0.5 = CCC and Below, 0.5-1.5 = B-, 1.5-2.5 = B, etc up to 14.5-15.5 = AA+ and >15.5 = AAA.
Official international reserves
81.2 77.4 76.3 77.9 78.8
3 (USDbn)
Sovereign Rating Committee can override SRM predicted rating if a marginal change in the Total result leads to a notch change which is judged to be temporary.
4
A non-linear representation of the number of years since the last default or restructuring event, ranging from zero (if there has been no event after 1980) to one (if
there has been an event in the current year, or the sovereign remains in default).
Nominal GDP (USDbn) 137.3 159.4 174.8 168.8 180.4
5
A non-linear representation, ranging from 0 to 4.6. The full share of Euro holdings is applied for all euro area economies.

Acronyms used: foreign currency (FC), local currency (LC), issuer default rating (IDR), gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price inflation (CPI), current external
receipts (CXR), current external payments (CXP), gross general government debt (GGGD), reserve currency (share in global FX) (RC), foreign direct investment Exchange rate per USD (end-year) 333.29 332.33 384.20 390.00 395.00
(FDI).
Kazakhstan Ratings Navigator
Sovereigns
Credit-Relevant ESG Derivation Overall ESG Scale
Kazakhstan has 2 ESG key rating drivers, 2 ESG rating drivers and 9 ESG partial rating drivers
key driver 2 issues 5

 Political stability is a key rating driver for Kazakhstan, as reflected in the World Bank Governance Indicators having the highest weight in Fitch's Sovereign Rating Model.

 Government effectiveness, control of corruption and rule of law are key rating drivers for Kazakhstan, as reflected in the WB Governance Indicators having the highest weight in the SRM. Kazakhstan scores worse
than peers on the rule of law and control of corruption indicators.
driver 2 issues 4

 Social stability and voice and accountability are rating drivers for Kazakhstan, as reflected in the World Bank Governance Indicators having the highest weight in the SRM. Kazakhstan scores worse than peers on
voice and a+H682ccountability. partial driver 9 issues 3

 Willingness to service and repay debt is a rating driver for Kazakhstan, as for all sovereigns.

##  not a rating
2 issues 2

##  driver
0 issues 1

Environmental (E)
General Issues SRM QO E Score Key Sovereign Issues Sovereign Rating Criteria References E Scale
GHG Emissions and Air SRM - Macroeconomic performance, policies and prospects
How to Read This Page
2 2 2 Emissions and air pollution as a constraint on GDP growth 5 ESG scores range from 1 to 5 based on a 15-level color gradation. Red
Quality (Macro); Macro: real GDP growth; QO - Macro: GDP growth outlook
(5) is most relevant and green (1) is least relevant.
Management of energy resource endowments affecting exports, SRM - External finances: commodity dependence; SRM and QO -
Energy Management 3 2 3 4 The Environmental (E), Social (S) and Governance (G) tables break
government revenues and GDP indirectly affects other SRM variables and QO judgments
out the individual components of the scale. The E, S or G score for each
Water Resources and Water resource availability and management as a constraint on General Issue component reflects the higher of the SRM (Sovereign
2 2 2 SRM - Macro: real GDP growth; QO - Macro: GDP growth outlook 3
Management GDP growth Rating Model) and Qualitative Overlay (QO) sub scores, which are
derived from the SRM and QO steps of the Sovereign Rating Criteria,
Biodiversity and Natural Management of natural resource endowments affecting exports, SRM - External finances: commodity dependence; SRM and QO - respectively. The right-hand box shows the aggregate E, S, or G score.
3 2 3 2
Resource Management government revenues and GDP indirectly affects other SRM variables and QO judgments General Issues and the more specific Key Sovereign Issues are relevant
SRM - Structural features: share in world GDP; Macro: GDP across all sovereigns. Scores are assigned to each Key Sovereign Issue.
Natural Disasters and Climate
3 2 3 Likelihood of and resilience to shocks volatility; QO - External finances: vulnerability to shocks; SRM and 1 These scores signify the credit-relevance of the Key Sovereign Issues to
Change
QO - potential impact on other variables the issuing entity's overall credit rating. The Sovereign Rating Criteria
References box highlights the particular criterion which the corresponding
Social (S) ESG issues are captured by in Fitch's credit analysis.
General Issues SRM QO S Score Key Sovereign Issues Sovereign Rating Criteria References S Scale
SRM - Structural features: World Bank governance indicators (have
The Credit-Relevant ESG Derivation table shows the overall ESG
Human Rights and Political score. This score signifies the credit relevance of combined E, S and G
4 2 4 Social stability, voice and accountability, regime legitimacy highest weight in SRM); QO - Structural features: political stability & 5
Freedoms issues to the entity's credit rating. The three columns to the left of the
capacity
overall ESG score summarize the issuing entity's sub-component ESG
Human Development, Health Impact of human development, health and education on GDP SRM - Structural features: GDP per capita; Macro: real GDP growth; scores. The box on the far left identifies the [number of] general ESG
3 2 3 4
and Education per capita and GDP growth QO - Macro: GDP growth outlook
issues that are drivers or partial drivers of the issuing entity's credit rating
SRM - Structural features: GDP per capita; Macro: real GDP growth; (corresponding with scores of 3, 4 or 5) and provides a brief explanation
Employment and Income Impact of unemployment and income equality on GDP per
3 2 3 QO - Macro: GDP growth outlook; Structural features: political 3 for the score.
Equality capita, GDP growth and political and social stability
stability & capacity
SRM - Macro: real GDP growth; QO - Structural features: political Classification of ESG issues has been developed from Fitch's
Impact of public safety and security on business environment
Public Safety and Security 3 2 3 stability & capacity and business environment; Macro: GDP growth 2 Sovereign Rating Criteria and the General Issues and Key Sovereign
and/or economic performance
outlook
Issues have been informed by SASB's Materiality Map and the UNPRI's
SRM - Macro: real GDP growth; Public Finances: government
Population decline or aging, rapidly rising youth population; sovereign fixed income working group framework.
Demographic Trends 3 2 3 debt/GDP; QO - Public finances: public debt sustainability; 1
pensions sustainability
Structural features: political stability; Macro: growth outlook

Governance (G) CREDIT-RELEVANT ESG SCALE


General Issues SRM QO G Score Key Sovereign Issues Sovereign Rating Criteria References G Scale How relevant are E, S and G issues to the overall credit rating?
Political divisions and vested interests; geo-political risks SRM - Structural features: World Bank governance indicators (have
Political Stability and Rights 5 2 5 including conflict, security threats and violence; policy capacity: highest weight in SRM); QO - Structural features: political stability & 5 5 Highly relevant to rating, a key rating driver with a high weight.
unpredictable policy shifts or stasis capacity
Rule of Law, Institutional & SRM - Structural features: World Bank governance indicators (have
Government effectiveness, control of corruption, rule of law,
Regulatory Quality, Control of 5 2 5 highest weight in SRM); QO - Structural features: political stability & 4 4 Relevant to rating, a rating driver.
regulatory quality
Corruption capacity and business environment
SRM - External finances: Current account deficit and FDI; Macro:
International Relations and Trade agreements, membership of international organizations, Relevant, but only has an impact on entity rating in combination with
3 2 3 real GDP growth; QO - Structural features: political stability and 3 3 other factors.
Trade bilateral relations; sanctions or other costly international actions
business environment; External finances: vulnerability to shocks

SRM - Structural features: years since default or restructuring even;


Creditor Rights 4 2 4 Willingness to service and repay debt 2 2 Irrelevant to the entity rating but relevant to the sector.
QO - Potential adjustment in one of the QO pillars

Availability, limitations and reliability of economic and financial


Data Quality and Data Sources, Limitations and Reasonable Investigation; Data
3 2 3 data, including transparency of public debt and contingent 1 1 Irrelevant to the entity rating and irrelevant to the sector.
Transparency Revisions and Limitations
liabilities
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Sovereigns

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