10/15/23, 9:49 AM Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) | Safety Instrumented Systems

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Probability of Failure on Demand

(PFD)
by Editorial Staff

Reliability, as previously defined, is the probability a component or system will

perform as designed. Like all probability values, reliability is expressed a number

ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive.

A reliability value of zero (0) means the component or system is totally

unreliable (i.e. it is guaranteed to fail). Conversely, a reliability value of one (1)
means the component or system is completely reliable (i.e. guaranteed to

properly function).

In the context of dependability (i.e. the probability that a safety component or

system will function when called upon to act), the unreliability of that

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component or system is referred to as PFD, an acronym standing for

Probability of Failure on Demand.

Probability of Failure on Demand

Like dependability, this is also a probability value ranging from 0 to 1, inclusive.

A PFD value of zero (0) means there is no probability of failure (i.e. it is 100%

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dependable – guaranteed to properly perform when needed), while a PFD value

of one (1) means it is completely undependable (i.e. guaranteed to fail when

activated).

Thus:

Dependability + PFD = 1

PFD = 1 − Dependability

Dependability = 1 − PFD

Obviously, a system designed for high dependability should exhibit a small PFD

value (very nearly 0). Just how low the PFD needs to be is a function of how

critical the component or system is to the fulfillment of our human needs.

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The degree to which a system must be dependable in order to fulfill our

modern expectations is often surprisingly high. Suppose someone were to tell

you the reliability of seat-belts in a particular automobile was 99.9 percent

(0.999).

This sounds rather good, doesn’t it? However, when you actually consider the

fact that this degree of probability would mean an average of one failed seat-
belt for every 1000 collisions, the results are seen to be rather poor (at least to

modern American standards of expectation). If the dependability of seat-belts is

0.999, then the PFD is 0.001:

PFD = 1 − Dependability

PFD = 1 − 0.999

PFD = 0.001

Let’s suppose an automobile manufacturer sets a goal of only 1 failed seatbelt

in any of its cars during a 1 million unit production run, assuming each and

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every one of these cars were to crash.

Assuming four seatbelts per car, this equates to a 1/4000000 PFD. The

necessary dependability of this manufacturer’s seatbelts must therefore be:

Dependability = 1 − PFD = 1 − (1/4000000) = 0.99999975

Thus, the dependability of these seatbelts must be 99.999975% in order to fulfill

the goal of only 1 (potential) seatbelt failure out of 4 million seatbelts produced.

A common order-of-magnitude expression of desired reliability is the number

of “9” digits in the reliability value. A reliability value of 99.9% would be

expressed as “three nine’s” and a reliability value of 99.99% as “four nine’s.”

Expressed thusly, the seatbelt dependability must be “six nine’s” in order to

achieve the automobile manufacturer’s goal.

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