04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

Covid-19 impact on electricity

Latest weekly data

Statistics report — July 2020

Contents Cite Share

In this report

Impact of lockdown measures

Changes in electricity mix

Variable renewables in Europe

In light of the extraordinary impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and resulting lockdown
measures on the energy system, the IEA is publishing the most up-to-date possible
electricity data. This report includes data through 30 June, 2020. It will be updated on 14
August with data through the end of July.

Impact of lockdown measures

Electricity demand dropped quickly with confinement

measures. It steadily recovered as measures were
gradually softened; it is still 10% below the pre-
lockdown levels in EU countries
Electricity demand dropped to Sunday levels under lockdown, with dramatic reductions
in services and industry only partially offset by higher residential use.

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 1/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

When con inement was eased in Italy and Germany in April, electricity demand showed
the irst signs of recovering. This trend was con irmed in May, as more countries (India,
France, Spain, the UK) softened lockdown measures.

In June, electricity demand, weather corrected, stayed 10% below what it was before the
irst lockdown measures in most countries except India, where the recovery is more
pronounced.

Reductions of electricity demand after implementing lockdown measures in Open

selected countries, weather corrected, 0 to 118 days

Dashed line represents closures and partial lockdown, solid

5

-5

-10 France Germany

-15

-20

-25

-30 Italy

-35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Number of days since lockdow

IEA. All Rights Reserved

France Germany Italy Spain UK India

In May 2020, China's electricity demand, weather

corrected, is almost back at pre-lockdown levels
https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 2/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

Electricity demand in China dropped under lockdown in January, and more strongly in
February (-13% compared to February 2019, leap year corrected). Part of the difference
was also due to winter being signi icantly colder in 2019 than in 2020 in China. Weather
corrected, the decrease in demand in February 2020 compared to February 2019 was still
signi icant: -10%.

As con inement measures were eased, electricity demand showed the irst signs of
recovery. Temperatures continued to be higher in 2020 compared to 2019. In May 2020,
electricity demand in China was 4% higher than the level reached in May 2019. However,
this seems to be mostly due to increasing cooling needs. Weather corrected, electricity
demand in China is 1% below the level reached last year during the same month.

Year-on-year change in monthly electricity demand in China, 2020 Open

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14
January February March

IEA. All Rights Reserved

No adjustment Weather adjusted

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 3/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

First lockdown measures Lockdown Lockdown softened

(day 0) strengthened

France March 14 March 17 (day 3) May 11 (day 55)

Germany March 15 March 22 (day 7) April 20 (day 36) and May 4

(day 50)

Italy March 4 March 13 (day 9) April 14 (day 41) and May 4

(day 61)

Spain March 9 March 15 (day 6) May 11 (day 55)

UK March 19 March 23 (day 4) May 11 in England (day 55)

India March 18 March 25 (day 7) May 4 (day 47)

Changes in electricity mix

Renewables still hold a stronger share in the electricity

mix than prior to the Covid-19 pandemic
Across all major regions, the power mix has shifted towards renewables following
lockdown measures due to depressed electricity demand, low operating costs and
priority access to the grid through regulations.

In the United States, natural gas has remained the leading source of electricity, while
renewables have far outpaced the contribution of coal- ired power plants. In May,
renewables have consolidated their second position after natural gas and way above coal.
In June, as wind generation decreases as is generally the case at this season, and as the
stringency of the government response has softened, natural gas consolidated its leading
position.

In India, the gap between coal and renewables signi icantly narrowed after the irst
lockdown measures were taken. The share of coal in the electricity mix has stayed
consistently under 70% since then. In late May, levels of electricity demand were
recovering while the rising share of renewables in the mix re lected their seasonal
availability. In late June, as electricity demand grows with rising temperatures, coal
increased in the electricity mix while wind was decreasing.

With the progressive release of lockdown measures in China starting in the second half of
March, the coal share recovered slightly, while renewables maintain a high share in the
mix.

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 4/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

In the EU, due to ongoing deployment and favorable weather conditions over the irst six
months of 2020, renewable generation levels increased substantially compared to the
irst half of 2019. The impact of lockdown measures and this higher renewable production
drove demand for non-renewable generation down, in particular coal and nuclear. In June,
as nuclear production remained low, due partly to programmed maintenance, natural gas
became the second source of electricity generation behind renewables.

Electricity mix in India, January-June 2020 Open

100
Lockdown

Coal
75

50

25 Renewables

Gas & oil

0
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25
k

k
k
k

k
ee

k
k
k

k
ee
ee
ee

ee

k
k
ee

ee

ee
ee
ee

ee

ee
ee
W

W
W
W

W
W
W

W
W

2020

IEA. All Rights Reserved

Coal Gas & oil Nuclear Renewables

Electricity mix in the United States, January-June 2020 Open

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 5/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

100
Lockdown

75

50 Gas

25 Nuclear

Renewables
Coal

0
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25
k

k
k
k

k
ee

k
k
k

k
ee
ee
ee

ee

k
k
ee

ee

ee
ee
ee

ee

ee
ee
W

W
W
W

W
W
W

W
W
2020

Electricity mix in China, January-May 2020 Open

IEA. All Rights Reserved

%

80
Coal Gas NuclearLockdown
Renewables
Coal

60

40

Renewables
20

Nuclear
Gas
0
January February March April May

IEA. All Rights Reserved

Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 6/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

Electricity mix in the European Union, January-June 2020 Open

100
Lockdown

75

50

Total Renewables
Gas & Other combustibles
25
Nuclear
Coal
0
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25
k

k
k
k

k
ee

k
k
k

k
ee
ee
ee

ee

k
k
ee

ee

ee
ee
ee

ee

ee
ee
W

W
W
W

W
W
W

W
W

2020

IEA. All Rights Reserved

Coal Gas & Other combustibles Nuclear Total Renewables

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 7/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

Variable renewables in Europe

In several EU countries, lockdown periods have seen

new highs in variable renewables contribution as a
share of electricity demand
The share of variable renewables in the electricity mix depends on many factors: wind and
solar parks in operation, weather conditions, and total demand. In several EU countries, in
particular Italy, Spain and Germany, new records have been reached during the lockdown
period. The share of variable renewables remained high as lockdown measures were
softening.

Throughout summer several factors will impact the variable renewables share. Solar
photovoltaic infeed in general ramps up. Demand patterns are impacted due to economic
activity and a shift from residential heating to cooling, with demand recently picking up in
countries that typically have high early summer demand such as Spain and Italy.

VRE share in electricity demand in France, January-June 2020 Open

100
Lockdown

75

50

2019 max VRE share

2018 max VRE share
25

Wind

0
Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 Jun '20

IEA. All Rights Reserved

Solar Wind Weekly max of hourly VRE share

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 8/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

VRE share in electricity demand in Germany, January-June 2020 Open

100
2019 max VRE share Lockdown

2018 max VRE share

75

50

25 Wind

Solar

0
Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 Jun '20

IEA. All Rights Reserved

Solar Wind Weekly max of hourly VRE share

VRE share in electricity demand in Italy, January-June 2020 Open

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 9/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

100
Lockdown

75

2019 max VRE share

2018 max VRE share
50

VRE share in electricity demand in Spain, January-June 2020 Open

25
%
Wind
Solar
100
0 Lockdown
Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 Jun '20

2019 max VRE share

75
2018 max VRE share
IEA. All Rights Reserved

50
Solar Wind Weekly max of hourly VRE share

25 Wind

Solar
0
Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 Jun '20

IEA. All Rights Reserved

Solar Wind Weekly max of hourly VRE share

Analysis
All analysis

Flagship report

Global Energy Review 2020

The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 10/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

The Energy Mix

Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newslett
Your email Subscribe

Explore our other newsletters

Browse Learn Connect

Countries About Contact

Fuels and technologiesAreas of work Jobs

News and eventsDelegates
Topics
Follow
Explore

Analysis
https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 11/12
04/08/2020 Covid-19 impact on electricity – Analysis - IEA

Data and statistics

©IEA 2020Terms Privacy

https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity 12/12