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To cite this article: Şafak Kırış & Ozden Ustun (2012): An integrated approach for stock evaluation
and portfolio optimization, Optimization: A Journal of Mathematical Programming and Operations
Research, 61:4, 423-441
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Optimization
Vol. 61, No. 4, April 2012, 423–441
1. Introduction
Making investment decisions is a hard process for investors in an uncertain
environment due to the variability of the economic conditions. Decision-making
tools are required to support the investors while making decisions for financial
instruments to cope with the uncertainty and vagueness. According to Zadeh [44,45],
it is very difficult for conventional quantification to reasonably express those
situations; so, the notion of a linguistic variable is necessary in such situations. There
are several models to select a portfolio in the literature. The earliest study to
construct a portfolio is the mean-variance model proposed by Markowitz [18]. This
model is based on normal distribution of expected stock returns. Uncertainty
increases in crisis environment; therefore, using statistical indicators becomes
inadequate to obtain acceptable results. In practice, an investor deals with a set of
local criteria based explicitly or implicitly on the different financial ratios and stock
returns. Since the preferences of the investors concerned with such criteria often are
presented in verbal form, the problem is usually charged by the uncertainty of
subjective type. One of the powerful tools to cope with uncertainty caused by both
the financial markets and the behaviour of the investors’ decisions is fuzzy set theory.
Additionally, the portfolio selection problem is a multi-criteria decision-making
(MCDM) problem. In the literature, there are few studies related with the fuzzy
MCDM for the portfolio selection problem. Tiryaki and Ahlatcioglu [35] proposed a
new fuzzy ranking and weighting algorithm and applied their algorithm in Istanbul
Stock Exchange (ISE, www.ise.gov.tr). Tiryaki and Ahlatcioglu [36] proposed the
revised constrained fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method to portfolio
selection problem in ISE. Sevastjanov and Dymova [27] suggest a new method for
the stock ranking based on the multiple criterion decision making and optimization.
In this study, FAHP and fuzzy simple additive weighting (FSAW) approaches
were used to evaluate the performances of the stocks taken from ISE30 between 2006
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and 2008. In the second phase, a multi-objective portfolio optimization model was
built. Markowitz’s mean-variance model was combined with the objective of the
expected performance value of portfolio and cardinality constraints. The perfor-
mance values of stocks were obtained from the first phase. This multi-objective
real-life problem was solved by using reservation level driven Tchebycheff procedure
(RLTP).
In recent years, portfolio optimization models that consider more criteria than
the expected return and variance of objectives of the Markowitz model have become
popular. The multidimensional nature of the portfolio selection problem has been
emphasized by many researchers, from both the fields of finance and MCDM
[2,11,28,32–34,41,43,46,48]. However, research activities regarding the more specific
level of applying the multi-objective optimization approaches in the field of portfolio
selection have been rather limited. The studies of Roman et al. [24], Mansini et al.
[17], Ehrgott et al. [9], Ogryczak [22], Zopounidis et al. [47] and Wierzbicki [39],
Xidonas et al. [42], Ustun and Kasimbeyli [37], and Chang et al. [6] are the most
representative ones.
Over the past decade, various interactive methods and decision support systems
have been developed to deal with multi-objective programming (MOP) problems.
In the same period, a variety of scalarization methods for finding efficient solutions
of MOPs have been developed. Although some of the methods work well only on
problems with concave objective functions and a convex feasible region, most of the
real life problems have discrete variables, so the set of non-dominated solutions for
these problems is not convex. Weighted sums of the objective functions do not
provide a way for reaching every non-dominated solution. Besides supported
non-dominated solutions, there exist unsupported ones – solutions that are
dominated by convex combinations of other non-dominated solutions.
Tchebycheff metric-based scalarizing programs have the advantage over
weighted-sums programs of being able to reach not only supported but also
unsupported non-dominated solutions. A general characterization for the
non-dominated solution set based on the Tchebycheff metric is first proposed by
Bowman [3]. Wierzbicki [40] produced seminal research on reference point methods,
including an investigation of the characteristics of various achievement functions for
allowing the search for attractive non-dominated solutions to be controlled by
reference points. Interactive methods using Tchebycheff (interactive weighted
Tchebycheff procedure, IWTP) or other achievement scalarizing functions have
been developed for MOP problems by Steuer and Choo [31], Steuer [29],
Optimization 425
Karaivanova et al. [13], Vassilev and Narula [38], Reeves and Macleod [23], Alves
and Climaco [1], Korhonen and Laakso [15], Nakayama and Sawaragi [21],
Buchanan [4], Jaszkiewicz and Slowinski [12], Miettinen and Makela [19], among
others. In particular, Steuer and Choo [31] showed that by means of the
lexicographic weighted Tchebycheff program every efficient solution of the
non-concave MOP was uniquely computable and all objective function values
returned by this program were non-dominated. An alternative approach to reduce
the set of non-dominated solutions within a Tchebycheff framework is RLTP
proposed by Reeves and Macleod [23]. This approach uses reservation level (RL)
based upon decision-maker responses for objective space reduction. RLTP is shown
to be more flexible than the original IWTP, while producing solutions of similar
quality [8,23].
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After a brief discussion of MOP methods, RLTP is suggested as the most suitable
method to solve the multi-objective mixed-integer nonlinear problem (MOMINLP)
model. RLTP is more flexible than the other approaches and enables to backtrack
and change previous inconsistent decisions.
There are many studies conducted which examined either stock evaluation
problems or portfolio optimization problems. Different from the previous studies,
this study is varied with the integration of stock evaluation and portfolio
optimization. Since the success of the portfolio optimization depends on the
performance of the stock evaluation process, stock evaluation and portfolio
optimization problems are required to be solved together for more satisfactory
solutions. Thus, in the study at issue, an integrated approach was proposed to solve
these problems and applied to stock evaluation and portfolio optimization problem
for ISE30 between 2006 and 2008 in the economic crisis environment.
In the next section, the abovementioned phases of integrated approach are
defined which are followed by an application of the integrated approach to ISE30 in
Section 3. Finally, the issue is concluded with some remarks in Section 4.
Step 2: Sampling
Pairwise comparisons of criteria
and sub-criteria by investors
Step 3: Solution
Step 4: Adjustment
Fuzzy synthetic decision
to establish a performance evaluation model for investors. The global steps of the
proposed method are as follows: (1) screen performance indexes of the stocks to
determine criteria for constructing a hierarchical framework of performance
evaluation, (2) use FAHP to find the fuzzy weights of the criteria by subjective
opinion, (3) apply fuzzy SAW to rank the performances of the stocks and (4)
construct a portfolio by using the performances of the stocks.
This methodology is also discussed for tenders selection problem in the study of
Hsieh et al. [10].
2.1.1.1. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy numbers are subset of real numbers, representing the
expansion of the idea of the confidence interval. According to the definition of
Optimization 427
Laarhoven and Pedrycz [16], a triangular fuzzy number (TFN) should possess the
following basic features.
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Linguistic variables are primarily used to assess the linguistic ratings given by
investors for pairwise comparisons of the importance of criteria in FAHP.
Performances of alternatives for each criterion are also used as a way to measure
by using linguistic terms as ‘very good’, ‘good’, ‘fair’, ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’. The
procedure for determining the evaluation criteria weights by FAHP can be
summarized as follows:
Step 1 Construct pairwise comparison matrices among all the elements/criteria in
the dimensions of the hierarchy system and assign linguistic terms to the pairwise
comparisons by asking which is more important of each two element/criteria.
Step 2 Use geometric mean technique to define the fuzzy geometric mean and fuzzy
weights of each criterion by Buckley [5] are as follows:
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where a~in is a fuzzy comparison value of criterion i to criterion n, thus, r~i is geometric
mean of fuzzy comparison value of criterion i to each criterion, w~ i is the fuzzy weight
of the ith criterion, can be indicated by a TFN, w~ i ¼ ðLwi , Mwi , Uwi Þ, where Lwi,
Mwi and Uwi are the lower, middle and upper values of the fuzzy weight of the ith
criterion, respectively.
The end-point values LEij, MEij and UEij of the average fuzzy number E~ ij
can be solved by Buckley’s [5] method, that is
! ! !
Xm Xm X
m
LEij ¼ LEkij m; MEij ¼ MEkij m; UEij ¼ UEkij m: ð9Þ
k¼1 k¼1 k¼1
alternatives can also be obtained from the fuzzy performance value of each
alternative under n criteria, that is, E~ ¼ ðE~ ij Þ.
The approximate fuzzy number R~ i , of the fuzzy synthetic decision of each
alternative can be shown as R~ i ¼ ðLRi , MRi , URi Þ, where LRi, MRi and URi
are the lower, middle and upper synthetic performance values, respectively,
of the alternative i, that is,
X
n X
n X
n
LRi ¼ LEij Lwj ; MRi ¼ MEij Mwj ; URi ¼ UEij Uwj : ð10Þ
j¼1 j¼1 j¼1
(3) Ranking the fuzzy number: In this study, the procedure of defuzzification is to
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locate the best non-fuzzy performance (BNP) value which is a simple and
practical method and there is no need to bring in the preferences of any
investors. The BNP value of the fuzzy number R~ i can be found by the
following equation:
Constraints
The constraints of the problem are formulated as follows:
Proportion constraint: The sum of proportions of the stocks in portfolio should be
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equal to 1.
X
n
xi ¼ 1 ð15Þ
i¼1
X
n
yi ¼ m ð16Þ
i¼1
Step 3 Solution
Solve the associated Tchebycheff program for each weight vector
( )
X3
min zt
t¼1
s:t:
t ðzt zt Þ, t ¼ 1, 2, 3, ð19Þ
ft ðxÞ ¼ zt , t ¼ 1, 2, 3,
zt RLt , t ¼ 1, 2, 3,
x 2 S,
where is a small positive scalar. Show the P most different of the resulting objective
vectors to the investors. If the investors wish to continue to search for an improved
solution, proceed to Step 4. Otherwise, have the investors select their current most
preferred solution and stop.
Step 4 Adjustment
Classify the current solutions into more preferred and less preferred subsets,
adjust the RL and return to Step 2.
Investors participate more actively in this procedure only at Step 4 of each
intermediate iteration and Step 3 of the final iteration. At these iterations, the
investors try to partition current solutions into more preferred and less preferred
subsets and choose most preferred solution. RL are adjusted based upon the
objective values of the current more preferred and less preferred solutions. The RL
can be adjusted automatically by the RLTP, rather than by the investors, as a default
option. The following default objective space reduction is suggested by Reeves and
Macleod [23].
432 S. K|r|s and O. Ustun
Let CSWVt be the worst values for the tth objective over the set of all current
solution and MPWVt be the worst values for the tth objective over the subset of most
preferred current solutions. RLt could be specified as Equation (20), where r is a
reduction factor between 0 and 1. Smaller values for r would correspond to faster
rates of objective space reduction.
C1 C2 C3
Fuzzy geometric means (ri) and then fuzzy weights (wi) were calculated as follows
by using geometric mean technique by Buckley (1985).
The BNP values of the fuzzy weights of each dimension were determined by
centre of area method, respectively, as 0.795322, 0.212979 and 0.171944. Similar
operations like pairwise comparison, calculation of weights and BNP values were
done for each defined criteria. The calculation results are given in Table 4.
Each investor evaluated the alternatives under the defined criteria based on the
expressions given in Table 5 and investors’ expressions are given, respectively, in
Table 6 as Investor 1, Investor 2.
The average fuzzy performance values were calculated by using the ranges given
in Table 5 based on Equation (9). Then, each alternative’s synthetic performance
values were computed by using fuzzy multiplication and addition functions with
criteria’s weights as in Table 7.
After calculations of synthetic performance values, fuzzy numbers had to be
turned into non-fuzzy forms. The BNP values were also used in this phase. The
results are given in Table 7. The alternatives were ranked based on BNP values.
These ranks are also indicated in Table 7.
It can be seen from Table 7 that KRDMD is the best alternative considering the
two investors’ weights. On the other hand, HURGZ has the poorest performance
value.
434 S. K|r|s and O. Ustun
Quality management system (0.252; 0.552; 0.584) (0.017; 0.075; 0.180) 0.091
Firm image (0.193; 0.292; 0.890) (0.013; 0.040; 0.275) 0.109
1 (0; 0; 30) (30; 35; 40) (35; 50; 60) (55; 70; 80) (80; 100; 100)
2 (0; 0; 35) (30; 38; 45) (45; 55; 70) (60; 80; 90) (85; 100; 100)
After obtaining the BNP values of the stocks, the first phase of the integrated
approach was completed. In the second phase, these BNP values given in Table 7
were used as third objective’s coefficients. The mean returns of stocks and covariance
matrix were calculated by using the monthly data from ISE30 between the years 2006
and 2008 (Istanbul Stock Exchange, www.ise.gov.tr). Then, MOMINLP model was
constructed for ISE30. In this model, the investors chose the minimum and
maximum proportions of stock i as 0.05 and 0.5, respectively. Besides, the investors
chose the number of stocks in portfolio as 5.
RLTP was applied to the MOMINLP contained three objectives with cardinality
constraints. The first objective in MOMINLP was transformed to maximization
form by multiplying 1. An additive utility function was used to simulate investors’
preferences with weights of 0.33, 0.33 and 0.33. In this approach, the RLTP was not
restricted to select only a single most preferred solution at each iteration and the
¼ 0.001 was used at step 3.
The mathematical models in this study were solved by using LINGO 11.0 solver
[26]. There was not any limitation for the number of variables, integer variables and
constraints. Also, LINGO 11.0 can solve linear, non-linear, integer and mixed
integer programming models.
Although the RLTP allowed investors the flexibility of specifying RL individ-
ually for any objectives, RL were tightened automatically at each iteration at
prespecified constant rates by using Equation (20). Eight solutions were presented to
the simulated investors at each iteration for a total of two iterations. Ideal solution
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Market
Negative Positive Mean Net Equity price/book Firm
Firm deviation deviation return Cost profit/loss capital value R&D QMS image
AKBNK F, G G, G F, G P, VG F, VP F, VP P, P P, P G, G VG,VG
AKGRT P, P VG, VG F, G F, VG G, VP VG, P VG, VG P, P G, G VG, VG
ARCLK P, P F, P VP, P F, VG F, VP F, VP G, G G, G VG, VG VG, VG
AYGAZ F, G P, VP P, F F, VG G, P VG, F G, G G, G VG, VG VG, VG
BAGFS P, G VG, G VG, VG VP, VP G, VP G, VP F, F P, P G, G G, G
DOHOL F, G F, P P, F F, VG F, VP F, VP VG, VG F, P G, G VG, VG
DYHOL VP, VP G, F VP, VP VG, VG P, VP F, VP VG, VG P, P G, G VG, VG
ECILC F, G P, VP P, F G, VG G, VP VG, P VG, VG G, G G, G VG, VG
EREGL F, G F, G G, VG P, VG G, P VG, VG G, G G, VG G, G VG, VG
GARAN F, G G, G G, G F, VG F, VP F, VP P, P P, P F, F VG, VG
GSDHO VP, VP F, P VP, P VG, VG F, VP P, VP VG, VG F, P F, F G, G
HURGZ P, P F, P VP, VP VG, VG VP, VP G, VP G, G P, P F, F G, G
IHLAS P, P G, F VP, P VG, VG VP, VP G, VP VG, VG G, G G, G G, G
ISCTR F, VG F, P P, F P, VG F, VP F, VP F, F P, P G, G VG, VG
ISGYO P, G P, VP VP, P VG, VG G, VP G, VP VG, VG F,P F, F G, G
Optimization
(z*), where z* ¼ max{ft(xi)|x 2 S}, in terms of objective space and overall utility
(U(z*)) values are
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.33 0.7 0.2 0.1
2 0.25 0.5 0.25 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.33 0.2 0.1 0.7
3 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.33 0.1 0.7 0.2
z1 z2 z3 U(z) t (s)
z1 z2 z3 U(z)
1 1 1 1
2 83.09559 1.14419 142.3881
i 5 8 9 25 26
performance of the portfolio, 2009 annual returns of the stocks in the portfolio were
calculated as in Table 13. It can be seen from 2009 annual returns that the crisis
environment can be an opportunity for investors.
4. Conclusion
In this study, an integrated approach is proposed for stock evaluation and portfolio
optimization problems. These problems are individually considered in the literature
and this can cause inefficient solutions for the investors. Although these individual
approaches give appropriate solutions, the integrated approach provides more
preferred solutions by considering the investors’ preferences in the whole investment
process. Therefore, the novelty of the proposed approach is the integration of the
solutions for stock evaluation and portfolio optimization problems by considering
the investors’ preferences interactively.
The decision-making process consists of two phases to evaluate the stocks and to
determine their proportions in portfolio. In the first phase, fuzzy MCDM approach
was used to evaluate 30 stocks taken from ISE30 between the years 2006 and 2008.
This approach is a simple and practical method to support investors in uncertain and
vague environment. It is a significant issue to define accurate linguistic terms
and ranges for obtaining acceptable portfolio, since it proposes a flexible
decision-making methodology to integrate investors’ preferences.
Optimization 439
In the second phase, the proportions of stocks in portfolio were determined based
on the MOMINLP model. This model was solved by using RLTP. RLTP is more
flexible than the other RL-based approaches and enables to backtrack and change
previous inconsistent decisions.
It can be generalized from the results that the investors are risk averse and the
first criteria which is about the investor’s objectives (approximately 0.80 of BNP) is
more important for investors, especially the sub-criteria of mean return between the
years 2006 and 2008 with the BNP weight of 0.71. According to the results, it can be
said that, if only the stock of ECILC was purchased, 2009 annual return of ECILC
would be 202.48%. On the other hand, the return of the proposed portfolio was
76.20% based on investors’ preferences. Besides, the crisis environment can provide
some opportunities as it can be seen in 2009 annual returns of stocks in which the
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