Seismic Hazard

Ground shaking:
Ground failure, Lateral spreading.

Earthquake Engineering

Structural hazards:
Damage of Engineering works (buildings, bridges, highways, etc.);

Liquefaction:
Foundation settlement

Lecture # 03

Seismic Hazard
Landslides:
Mudflow, Slope failure.

Retaining structure failure:

Retaining walls, Dams etc

Lifeline hazards:
Fire, Hazardous emissions, loss of utility supplies.

.Water:
Tsunami (ocean) and Seiche (lake) hazards.

Sand boils that erupted during the Canterbury Earthquake (Feb 22, 2011)

SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

 Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA)

Describes potential for dangerous, earthquake related natural phenomena such as ground shaking, fault rupture or soil liquefaction for a given region.

Approaches for SHA

Deterministic Analysis
The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.35g resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 on the Balcones Fault at a distance of 12 miles from the site.

Seismic Risk Analysis (SRA)

Assesses the probability of occurrence of losses (human, social, economic) associated with the seismic hazard.

Probabilistic Analysis
The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.28g with a 2 percent probability of being exceeded in a 50-year period.

Deterministic Analysis

1. Sources
Fault Localizing Structure Seismotectonic Province

1. Sources
Localizing Structure:
An identifiable geological structure that is assumed to generate or localize earthquakes. This is generally a concentration of known or unknown active faults.

2. Controlling Earthquake
Maximum Possible Earthquake (MPE)
An upper bound to size (however unlikely) determined by earthquake processes (e.g., maximum seismic moment).

Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) Seismotectonic Province:

A region where there is a known seismic hazard but where there are no identifiable active faults or localizing structures. The maximum reasonable earthquake size based on earthquake processes (but does not imply likely occurrence).

2. Controlling Earthquake
Maximum Historic Earthquake (MHE)
The maximum historic or instrumented earthquake that is often a lower bound on maximum possible or maximum credible earthquake.

3. Ground Motion
Magnitude Distance from fault Directivity

Maximum (MCE)

Considered

Earthquake Site Characteristics

The MCE ground motions are defined as the maximum level of earthquake shaking that is considered as reasonable to design normal structures to resist.

3. Ground Motion
Ground Motion Attenuation/ Magnification
Obtain catalog of appropriate ground motion records. Correct for aftershocks, foreshocks. Correct for consistent magnitude measure. Fit data to empirical relationship.

3. Ground Motion
Ground Motion Attenuation/ Magnification
The empirical equation is usually considered of the form:

(Directivity, Site Characteristics)

3. Ground Motion
The relationship depends on several conditions:
Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Subduction zone earthquakes Near-source attenuation Extensional tectonic regions Many others
Relationship can be developed for PGA, PGV or PGD

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Deterministic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

2. Recurrence
Gutenberg-Richter Law (Discussed last week) Gutenberg-

2. Recurrence

log10 N ( M ) = a bM
N(M): number of events per year magnitudes greater than M a and b: Regression Constants Return Period with a magnitude > M
TR = 1 = 10bM a N

having

Bound due to Fault Characteristics

2. Recurrence

Probabilistic Analysis

y*: Recurrence probability of y* (PGA, PGV, PGD) NS: No. of Sites NM: No. of Magnitudes NR: No. of Distances

Probabilistic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

10

Probabilistic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

11

Uniform Hazard Spectrum

Developed from probabilistic analysis. All ordinates exceedance. have equal probability of

Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic vs Deterministic
The deterministic approach provides a clear and trackable method of computing seismic hazard. It provides understandable scenarios that can be related to the problem at hand. However, it has no way for accounting for uncertainty. Conclusions based on deterministic analysis can easily be upset by the occurrence of new earthquakes.

Represents contributions from small local, large distant earthquakes. Over conservative for modal response spectrum analysis. Not appropriate for artificial ground motion generation

Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic vs Deterministic
The probabilistic approach is capable of integrating a wide range of information and uncertainties into a flexible framework. Unfortunately, its highly integrated framework can obscure those elements which drive the results, and its highly quantitative nature can lead to false impressions of accuracy.

Seismic Hazard Map

12

Deterministic Cap
Applies only where probabilistic exceed highest design values. values

The deterministic procedure for mapping applies:

For known active faults. Uses characteristic largest earthquake on fault. Uses 150% of value from median attenuation. Use deterministic value if lower than 2% in 50 year value.

Use deterministic value if lower than 2% in 50 year value

13