OPM 301 Formula Sheet Productivity & Forecasting

PRODUCTIVITY
Output
Productivity=
Input

Current Productivity - Previous Productivity

Productivity Growth   100
Previous Productivity

FORECASTING
 Naive Method

o Stable: Ft = At-1

o Seasonality: Fthis season = Alast season

o Trend: Ft+1 = At + (At – At-1)

n

A i
 Moving average: MAn  i 1
n
n
 Weighted Moving Average: WMAn = w A
i 1
i i

 Exponential Smoothing: Ft = αAt-1 + (1 – α)Ft-1

 Linear Trend Equation: Ft = a + bt

 Mean Absolute Deviation: MAD  A t  Ft

T

 A  Ft 
2

 Mean Squared Error: MSE  t

 Mean Absolute Percent Error: MAPE 

 (A t  Ft ) / A t  100
T