Multiples Analysis

Company Name Chubb Corporation ç cell F3 is named "name"
Sub-header Dollars in millions, except per share ç cell F5 is named "subheader"
Last Fiscal Year End 12/31/2010 ç cell is named "FYE"
Final Inputs 2011 Step

Premiums earned growth rate 0.0% 0.0%
Loss Ratio 59.0% 0.0%
SG&A expenses (as a % of sales) 3.0% 0.0%
Other operating (income) / expense (amount) $0.0 0.0
Effective tax rate 28.0% 0.0%
Cash (collection period in days) 2.0
Premiums Receivable (days outstanding) 110.0
Investments (as % of sales) 355.0%
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses (x losses and loss expenses) 3.5
Unearned Premiums (as % premiums earned) 54.0%
Other current liabilities (as % of sales) 12.0%
Capital expenditures $771.2 0.0%
Capital expenditures as % of sales in year 2012
Asset Sales and Write-Offs $0.0
Depreciation expense $0.0
Depreciation as % of CapEx in year 2012 0.0% 0.0%
Additions to Intangibles $0.0
(Write-offs) 0.0
Amortization expense 0.0
Stock-based Compensation $0.0
Assumed current year P/E Multiple 9.0x
Shares repurchased - millions 30.000 0.500
New shares issued from options - millions 0.000
Average strike price $0.00
Dividend payout ratio 30.0%
Effects of options and dilutive securities (8.250)
Minimum Cash Balance $0.0
Revolver interest rate 0.28%
Long-term debt interest rate 5.60%
Cash Balances: interest rate 1.00%
2015 2015 2015
EBITDA EBIT EPS
$3,005.4 $3,005.4 $7.43
COPYRIGHT 2011 © by Training The Street, Inc For training purposes only!
Chubb C
DuPont An
2001 2002 2003

ROE 1.71 3.27 9.49
Lev 1.24 1.29 1.33

ROC 1.38 2.54 7.13
NPM 1.46 2.45 7.15

Capital T/O 0.95 1.03 1.00
Source: Derived
Notes:
ROE = Net Income / Stk Equity
= Profit Margin x Capital Turnover x Financial Leverage
= NPM x Capital T/O x Lev
Theoretical
Theoretical
Sector Chubb Actual Multiples Chubb Price Travelers
P/R Ratio (TTM) 1.04 1.67 1.3 57.73 1.11
Price To Book Value 0.61 1.15 1.1 58.64 1.05
P/E Ratio (TTM) 23.15 9.86 10 74.14 8.7
Fwd P/E 28.2 10.59 9 49.40 9.7
Fwd P/Rev 1.18 1.43 1.2 53.29 1.11
Source: Mergent Horizon AVERAGE: 58.64
Multiple/Valuation Method Multiple Estimated Value Weight Contribution

P/R Ratio (TTM) 1.3 57.73 0% 0.00
Price To Book Value 1.1 58.64 50% 29.32
P/E Ratio (TTM) 10 74.14 0% 0.00
Fwd P/E 9 49.40 10% 4.94
Fwd P/Rev 1.2 53.29 5% 2.66
Dividend Discount Model 48.79 10% 4.88
DCF Valuation 41.76 20% 8.35
Final Intrinsic Value 50.15
SELL
Chubb Corporation
DuPont Analysis
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

15.29 14.72 18.24 19.43 13.43 13.96 13.60 14.05
1.28 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.25 1.21 1.36

11.97 12.28 15.48 15.68 10.36 11.13 11.28 10.30
11.95 13.33 18.37 20.44 13.27 16.80 16.20 12.36

1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.78 0.66 0.70 0.83
CNA Cincinatti
Allstate Progressive Financial Financial
0.55 0.9 0.87 1.47
0.9 2.25 0.7 1.1
18.62 12.67 15.01 14.76
9.03 13.16 11.26 23.05
0.61 0.87 1.08 1.5
Implied Forward TRV Forward % of TRV
Quarter Price (1) EPS P/E (2) TRV Price TRV EPS P/E P/E
1Q08 47.58 1.77 11.63 44.33 1.54 10.17 114%
2Q08 48.98 1.27 11.23 46.73 1.54 11.43 98%
3Q08 44.71 0.73 8.40 41.15 0.36 7.65 110%
4Q08 48.78 1.14 7.89 39.97 1.35 6.30 125%
1Q09 40.13 0.95 6.30 36.55 1.11 5.64 112%
2Q09 37.03 1.54 5.93 39.26 1.27 5.98 99%
3Q09 44.3 1.69 7.10 41.38 1.65 5.89 120%
4Q09 46.87 2 7.90 48.13 2.31 7.29 108%
1Q10 48.66 1.14 7.89 49.3 1.25 7.24 109%
2Q10 51.83 1.41 8.46 49.67 1.35 7.19 118%
3Q10 51.96 1.69 8.94 49.76 2.11 7.96 112%
4Q10 57.66 1.69 10.48 54.84 1.89 9.42 111%
1Q11 57.93 1.38 10.02 56.26 1.455
2Q11 1.38 1.455
3Q11 1.38 1.455
4Q11 1.38 1.455
1Q12 1.66
1) Price at beginning of quarter
2) Price/sum of next 4 quarters EPS
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, www.standardandpoors.com, Mergent Horizon
3-Jan-11 1,257.62 1,302.67 1,257.62 1,286.12 4,816,605,000 1,286.12

1-Dec-10 1,186.60 1,262.60 1,186.60 1,257.64 3,762,922,700 1,257.64
1-Nov-10 1,185.71 1,227.08 1,173.00 1,180.55 4,354,084,200 1,180.55
1-Oct-10 1,143.49 1,196.14 1,131.87 1,183.26 4,432,102,300 1,183.26
1-Sep-10 1,049.72 1,157.16 1,049.72 1,141.20 3,993,981,400 1,141.20
2-Aug-10 1,107.53 1,129.24 1,039.70 1,049.33 4,044,967,700 1,049.33
1-Jul-10 1,031.10 1,120.95 1,010.91 1,101.60 4,704,026,600 1,101.60
1-Jun-10 1,087.30 1,131.23 1,028.33 1,030.71 5,235,174,000 1,030.71
3-May-10 1,188.58 1,205.13 1,040.78 1,089.41 6,626,699,400 1,089.41
1-Apr-10 1,171.23 1,219.80 1,170.69 1,186.69 5,847,150,900 1,186.69
1-Mar-10 1,105.36 1,180.69 1,105.36 1,169.43 4,702,951,700 1,169.43
1-Feb-10 1,073.89 1,112.42 1,044.50 1,104.49 4,658,238,400 1,104.49
4-Jan-10 1,116.56 1,150.45 1,071.59 1,073.87 5,071,601,500 1,073.87
1-Dec-09 1,098.89 1,130.38 1,085.89 1,115.10 4,163,287,200 1,115.10
2-Nov-09 1,036.18 1,113.69 1,029.38 1,095.63 4,443,852,500 1,095.63
1-Oct-09 1,054.91 1,101.36 1,019.95 1,036.19 5,451,064,000 1,036.19
1-Sep-09 1,019.52 1,080.15 991.97 1,057.08 5,633,064,200 1,057.08
3-Aug-09 990.22 1,039.47 978.51 1,020.62 5,764,944,200 1,020.62
1-Jul-09 920.82 996.68 869.32 987.48 5,080,675,400 987.48
1-Jun-09 923.26 956.23 888.86 919.32 5,330,941,800 919.32
1-May-09 872.74 930.17 866.1 919.14 6,883,268,000 919.14
1-Apr-09 793.59 888.7 783.32 872.81 6,938,945,600 872.81
2-Mar-09 729.57 832.98 666.79 797.87 7,633,306,300 797.87
2-Feb-09 823.09 875.01 734.52 735.09 7,022,036,200 735.09
2-Jan-09 902.99 943.85 804.3 825.88 5,844,561,500 825.88
1-Dec-08 888.61 918.85 815.69 903.25 5,320,791,300 903.25
3-Nov-08 968.67 1,007.51 741.02 896.24 6,231,635,200 896.24
1-Oct-08 1,164.17 1,167.03 839.8 968.75 7,226,593,900 968.75
2-Sep-08 1,287.83 1,303.04 1,106.42 1,166.36 6,900,428,500 1,166.36
1-Aug-08 1,269.42 1,313.15 1,247.45 1,282.83 4,264,482,300 1,282.83
1-Jul-08 1,276.69 1,292.17 1,200.44 1,267.38 5,923,937,200 1,267.38
2-Jun-08 1,399.62 1,404.05 1,272.00 1,280.00 4,840,303,300 1,280.00
1-May-08 1,385.97 1,440.24 1,373.07 1,400.38 4,039,814,700 1,400.38
1-Apr-08 1,326.41 1,404.57 1,324.35 1,385.59 4,113,069,000 1,385.59
3-Mar-08 1,330.45 1,359.68 1,256.98 1,322.70 4,661,172,000 1,322.70
1-Feb-08 1,378.60 1,396.02 1,316.75 1,330.63 4,148,143,000 1,330.63
2-Jan-08 1,467.97 1,471.77 1,270.05 1,378.55 4,925,982,300 1,378.55
3-Jan-11 1,257.62 1,302.67 1,257.62 1,286.12 4,816,605,000 1,286.12

1-Oct-10 1,143.49 1,196.14 1,131.87 1,183.26 4,432,102,300 1,183.26
1-Jul-10 1,031.10 1,120.95 1,010.91 1,101.60 4,704,026,600 1,101.60
1-Apr-10 1,171.23 1,219.80 1,170.69 1,186.69 5,847,150,900 1,186.69
4-Jan-10 1,116.56 1,150.45 1,071.59 1,073.87 5,071,601,500 1,073.87
1-Oct-09 1,054.91 1,101.36 1,019.95 1,036.19 5,451,064,000 1,036.19
1-Jul-09 920.82 996.68 869.32 987.48 5,080,675,400 987.48
1-Apr-09 793.59 888.7 783.32 872.81 6,938,945,600 872.81
2-Jan-09 902.99 943.85 804.3 825.88 5,844,561,500 825.88
1-Oct-08 1,164.17 1,167.03 839.8 968.75 7,226,593,900 968.75
1-Jul-08 1,276.69 1,292.17 1,200.44 1,267.38 5,923,937,200 1,267.38
1-Apr-08 1,326.41 1,404.57 1,324.35 1,385.59 4,113,069,000 1,385.59
2-Jan-08 1,467.97 1,471.77 1,270.05 1,378.55 4,925,982,300 1,378.55
CB as % of
S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P Implied S&P 500
Price EPS Forward P/E P/E
1378.55 $15.54 200.95 6%
1385.59 $12.86 184.50 6%
1267.38 $9.73 101.07 8%
968.75 -$23.25 19.01 42%
825.88 $7.52 13.55 46%
872.81 $13.51 13.01 46%
987.48 $14.76 13.74 52%
1036.19 $15.18 13.45 59%
1073.87 $17.48 12.77 62%
1186.69 $19.68 13.55 62%
1101.60 $19.52 12.05 74%
1183.26 $20.38 12.75 82%
1286.12 $24.49 14.03
$23.18
$23.37
$21.76
$23.35
Sector CB TRV ALL PGR

P/R Ratio (TTM) 1.04 1.67 1.11 0.55 0.9
Price To Book V 0.61 1.05 0.9 2.25
P/E Ratio (TTM) 23.15 9.86 8.7 18.62 12.67
Fwd P/E 28.2 10.59 9.7 9.03 13.16
Fwd P/Rev 1.18 1.43 1.11 0.61 0.87
Fwd P/E 28.2 10.59 9.7 9.03 13.16
CNA CINF
0.87 1.47
0.7 1.1
15.01 14.76
11.26 23.05
1.08 1.5
11.26 23.05
NOPLAT
$ (millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Income 1,609 1,706 1,779 1,821 1,863
Interest Expense 463 463 418 418 418
Interest Income - - - - -
Non-operating Income - - - - -
NOPLAT 2,072 2,169 2,197 2,239 2,281
Free Cash Flow

$ (millions)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
NOPLAT 2,072 2,169 2,197 2,239 2,281 29,328
Depreciation - - - - -
(Increase)/decrease in working capi 771 544 (658) (676) (693)
Free cash flow 2,843 2,712 1,539 1,563 1,588 29,328
Discount factor 1.00 0.93 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.74

Discounted cash flow 2,843 2,513 1,321 1,243 1,170 21,611
WACC 7.9%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%
PV of Explicit CFs 9,089

PV of Continuing Value 21,611
- Total debt -34,264
+ equity Value 15,979
Equity Value 12,416
Shares Outstanding (mil) 297.30
Intrinsic Value 41.76

WACC Calculation
Book value of debt (billions) 34.26
Market Capitalization (2/11/2011) 18.23
Cost of debt 11.65%
Tax Rate 28.00%
Equity risk premium 5.00%
Risk free rate 3.58%
Beta 0.70
Cost of equity 7.08%
WACC 7.9%
Terminal Growth Rate and WACC Sensitivity Table
Terminal Growth Rate

$ 41.76 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
WACC 7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
Invested Capital
Operating W 2008 2009 2010
Current Asse 2,257 2,152 2,051
Current Liabi (31,022) (30,840) (30,141)
Net PPE 324 310 310
Net Other A 947 890 972
Total Inves (27,494) (27,488) (26,808)
2008 2009 2010
S/T Invest $2,478.0 $1,918.0 $2,046.0

(Continuing Value) Cash $56.0 $51.0 $77.0
Premiums R $2,201.0 $2,101.0 $1,974.0
Other Asset $1,271.0 $1,200.0 $1,282.0
WACC Sensitivity
Share Value
41.76
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
wth Rate
2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 0
Income Statement for Chubb Corporation
Dollars in millions, except per share
2011 - 2015
Historical Year Ending December 31, Projected Year Ending December 31, CAGR
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Premiums Earned 11,828.0 11,331.0 11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5 2.2%
Investment Income (1) 1,732.0 1,649.0 1,809.0 $1,800.0 $1,890.0 $1,927.8 $1,966.4 $2,005.7
Losses and Loss Expenses 6,898.0 6,268.0 6,499.0 6,616.8 6,947.7 7,086.6 7,228.4 7,372.9
Amortization of Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs 3,123.0 3,021.0 3,496.0 3,364.5 3,532.7 3,603.4 3,675.4 3,749.0
Gross Profit 3,539.0 3,691.0 3,029.0 3,033.7 3,185.3 3,249.0 3,314.0 3,380.3 2.2%
SG&A expenses 283.0 285.0 279.0 336.5 353.3 360.3 367.5 374.9
Other operating (income) / expense 609.0 196.0 (478) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 2,647.0 3,210.0 3,228.0 2,697.2 2,832.1 2,888.7 2,946.5 3,005.4 (1.4%)
Depreciation 69.0 64.0 69.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Amortization (4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBIT 2,578.0 3,146.0 3,159.0 2,697.2 2,832.1 2,888.7 2,946.5 3,005.4 (1.0%)
Interest expense (5) 240.0 248.0 244.0 463.0 463.0 418.0 418.0 418.0
Pretax Income 2,338.0 2,898.0 2,915.0 2,234.2 2,369.1 2,470.7 2,528.5 2,587.4 (2.4%)
Income taxes (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 603.0 779.0 742.0 625.6 663.3 691.8 708.0 724.5
Net Income $1,735.0 $2,119.0 $2,173.0 $1,608.6 $1,705.7 $1,778.9 $1,820.5 $1,862.9 (3.0%)
Diluted weighted average shares (in millions) 366.800 353.000 321.600 293.083 258.250 250.750 250.750 250.750 (4.9%)
Earnings Per Share $4.73 $6.00 $6.76 $5.49 $6.60 $7.09 $7.26 $7.43 1.9%
Net Realized Investment Loss (Income) - per share $0.85 $0.14 ($0.86) $0.01 $0.03 ($0.10) ($0.13) ($0.16)
Operating EPS $5.58 $6.14 $5.90 $5.50 $6.63 $6.99 $7.13 $7.27
2011 Consensus Operating EPS $5.70 Consensus EPS CAGR of 8.0%
Ratios & Assumptions
Premiums earned growth rate (4.2%) (1.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Loss Ratio 58.3% 55.3% 57.9% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0%
Expense Ratio 26.4% 26.7% 31.2% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Combined Ratio 84.7% 82.0% 89.1% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0%
SG&A expenses (as a % of sales) 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Other operating (income) / expense (amount) $609.0 $196.0 ($478.0) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Effective tax rate 25.8% 26.9% 25.5% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0%
1) Forecasted Including realized gain/loss which is excluded in non-GAAP Operating EPS
2) 2007 SG&A excludes $20 million reversal of legal reserves due favorable results in litigation. Source: Campbell 2009 10-K, pg. 16.
3) 2009 Other operating excludes $67 million impairment charge. 2008 Other operating excludes $6 million impairment charge.
2007 other operating excludes total of $36 million in one time charges. Source: Campbell 2009 10-K, pgs. 15 & 73.
4) Amortization of Policy Acquisition costs excluded
5) 2007 Interest expense excludes $4 million non-cash benefit associated with legal settlement. Source: Campbell 2009 10-K, pg. 16.
6) 2009 Income taxes exclude benefit from finalization of tax audits. 2008 Income taxes exclude benefit from the resolution of state tax contingency. 2007 income taxes exclude benefits from settlement
of pricing agreements and finalization tax audits. Source: Campbell 2009 10-K, pg. 11, 16-17.
The Chubb Corporation (CB)
Income Statement
($ millions, except share data)
Rev Growth Rate 19% 25% 15% 6% 0% 0% -1%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Operating Rev* 7,639 9,083 11,310 12,959 13,699 13,758 13,733 13,592
COGS** 7,129 8,142 9,403 10,164 10,744 9,493 9,391 10,021
Gross profit 510 940 1,907 2,795 2,955 4,265 4,342 3,571
SG&A 208 235 353 315 379 435 335 352
R&D - - - - - - - -
Other Op Costs 483 594 705 630 512 550 444 441
Op Inc (181) 111 849 1,850 2,064 3,280 3,563 2,778
Int***
Non-op Inc (Loss) 115 58 84 218 384 245 374 (371)
Tax Inc (66) 168 934 2,068 2,447 3,525 3,937 2,407
Taxes (178) (55) 125 520 621 997 1,130 603
Net Inc 112 223 809 1,548 1,826 2,528 2,807 1,804
EPS $0.65 $1.31 $4.51 $8.15 $9.21 $6.13 $7.13 $5.00

Dil. EPS $0.63 $1.29 $4.46 $8.01 $8.94 $5.98 $7.01 $4.92
Div. PS 1.36 1.40 1.44 1.56 1.72 1.00 1.16 1.32
Source: Bloomberg
*Premiums Earned + Investment Income
**Losses + Amortization
***Corporate of Policy Acquisition
and other comprises Costs earned on corporate invested assets, interest
investment income
expense and other expenses not allocated to oper. subsidiaries
tion (CB)
nt
ta)
-4% 3%
2009 2010
12,993 13,412 Net Revenue Sales
9,289 9,995 COS Losses and Amort of Acq Costs
3,704 3,417 Gross profit Gross Pft
349 348 SG&A Inv & Corp Exp
- - R&D Other Op Exp
416 422 Other Op Costs Op Inc
2,939 2,647 Op Inc Net Realized Inv Gain
Int Non-Op Inc
23 372 Non-op Inc Tax Inc
2,962 3,019 Tax Inc Taxes
779 846 Taxes Net Inc
2,183 2,173 Net Inc Dividend
R/Inc
$6.24 $6.67 EPS
$6.18 $6.76 Dil. EPS
1.40 1.48 DPS
Ticker #NAME?
Currency
Name
Start Date
End Date
Periodicity
Display Order
Data Type
Reported Status
Consolidation Level
Date: CY1 2001 CY1 2002 CY1 2003 CY1 2004 CY1 2005 CY1 2006 CY1 2007
Status: Restated Restated Original Original Original Original Original
Income Statement
Revenues
Real Estate and Other Revenues 114 23.8
Premiums Earned 6656.4 8085.3 10182.5 11635.7 12176 11958 11946
Investment Income 982.8 997.3 1118.3 1256 1407.7 1580 1738
Other Revenues 8.8 67.3 115.1 220 49

Realized Investment Gains (Note 4
Realized Investment Gains 0.8 33.9 84.4 383.5 245 374
Realized Capital Gains/ Losses 218.2
Realized Investment Gains (Losses), Net
Total Other-Than-Temporary Impairment Losses on Investments
Other Realized Investment Gains, #NAME?
Other-Than-Temporary Impairment Losses on Investments Recognized in O
TOTAL REVENUES 7754 9116.5 11394 13177.2 14082.3 14003 14107
Operating Expenses
Losses and Loss Expenses 5357.4 6064.6 6867.2 7320.9 7813.5 6574 6299
Amortization of Deferred Policy Ac 1771.4 2077.8 2535.6 2843.3 2930.4 2919 3092
Other Insurance Operating Costs 483.4 594.1 704.7 630.1 512.1 550 444
Investment Expenses 14.1 24.7 29 24.7 29.2 34 35
Other Expenses 110.1 101.4 150.4 110.9 160.7 207 48
Corporate Expenses 83.6 109.3 173.5 179.1 189.4 194 252
TOTAL LOSSES AND EXPENSES 7820 8971.9 10460.4 11109 11635.3 10478 10170
INCOME BEFORE FEDERAL AND F -66 168.4 933.6 2068.2 2447 3525 3937
Non-Operating Expenses
Federal and Foreign Income Tax -177.5 -54.5 124.8 519.8 621.1 997 1130
Earnings
Dividends per Share 1.56
Total Cash Common Dividends 298.2
Basic 0.65 1.31 4.51 8.15 9.21 6.13 7.13
Diluted 0.63 1.29 4.46 8.01 8.94 5.98 7.01
NET INCOME 111.5 222.9 808.8 1548.4 1825.9 2528 2807
Comprehensive Income
Change in Unrealized Appreciation of Investments, Net of Tax -313.8 81
Foreign Currency Translation Gains (Losses), Net of Tax -22.3 34
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME 1489.8 2643
Reference Items
Pension Plan Asset Category-Cash (amount)
Pension Plan Asset Category-Company Stock(amount)
Pension Plan Asset Category-Real Estate (amount)
Pro Forma Net Income (stock com 65.7 168.4 808.8 1548.4
Pro Forma Diluted EPS (stock com 0.37 0.97 4.46 8.01
Actual Return/Loss On Pension Pl
Insurance Operating Costs (Non-Li 431.1 568.8 675.2
Pension Plan Asset Category-Other (%)
Pension Plan Asset Category-Cash (%)
Pension Plan Asset Category-Real Estate (%)
Pension Plan Asset Category-Company Stock (%)
Underwriting Income -903.5 -625.9 104.5 2116
Realized Investment Gains (Losses 0.8 33.9 84.4 383.5 245 374
Dividends Declared on Common S 1.36 1.4 1.44 1.56 1.72 1 1.16
Accumulated postretirement benef 137 155
Decrease in unearned premiums 305.1 962 885.4 74
Loss ratio 80.8 75.4 67.6 63.1 64.3 55.2 52.8
Expense ratio 32.6 31.3 30.4 29.2 28 29 30.1
Combined loss and expense ratio 113.4 106.7 98 92.3 92.3 84.2 82.9
Catastrophe Losses 114 294 350 630 173 363
Change in Unrealized Appreciation
Change in Unrealized Appreciation 32.5
Change in Unrealized Appreciation or Depreci 332.9
Change in Unrealized Appreciation of Investments, Net of 88.1
Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Securities -49.1
Net unrealized gains (losses) recognizedin other comprehensive income -313.8
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the year 106
Change in Unrealized Appreciation of Investments 134
Net unrealized gains (losses) recognized in other comprehensive incom
Change in Unrealized Other-Than-Temporary Impairment Losses on Invest
Change in Unrealized Appreciation or Depreciation of Investments
Foreign Currency Translation Gain -4.5 16.5 68.5 67 -22.3 34 125
Change in Postretirement Benefit Costs Not Yet Recognized in Net Inco
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME 139.5 572.3 965.4 1566.3 3049
Interest Expense 134.8 134 206
United States
Foreign
Deferred tax (credit), principally United States
Actual tax -268.9 -32.4 13.4 25.1 25.4 28.3
Net premiums written 6961.5 9047.3 11067.9 12052.9 12282.6 11974 11872
Net premiums earned 6656.4 8085.3 10182.5 11635.7 12176 11958 11946
Stock Based Compensation Expense 88 87
Dividends Declared (per share $1. 234.8 239.7 258.9 345.3 417 -457
Benefit obligation 665.2 745.9 944.3 1076.9 1292.9 1533 1658
Benefit obligation 137 155 212.4 216 274.7 269 289
Plan assets at fair value 538.8 461.4 771.4 886.2 1031.2 1304 1409
Plan assets at fair value 13.4 21.8 26 37
Funded status at end of year, inclu -126.4 -284.5 -172.9 -190.7 -261.7 -229 249
Funded status at end of year, included in other liabilities -212.4 -202.6 -252.9 -243 252
Accumulated Benefit Obligation (Pension) 836.5 1000 1224 1328
Discount rate 7.25 7 6.5 6.25 5.75 5.75 5.75
Rate of compensation increase 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Employer Contribution (Pension) 65 126.9 109 93
Employer Contribution (Postretirement) 12.8 8 2 12
Service cost 28.6 32.1 42.7 50.2 57.6 67 79
Service cost 5 5.2 6.7 6.7 8.4 9 10
Interest cost 43.9 46.9 55.2 61.2 68.5 75 89
Interest cost 9.2 9.9 12.6 12.6 14.5 14 16
Expected return on plan assets -53.5 -51.9 -55 -66.9 -73.5 -85 -100
Expected return on plan assets -0.2 -1.1 -2 -2
Pension Expense (Income) 14 36.7 46.4 58.7 73.2 91 100
$ 12.8 14.2 19.7 24.4 22.2 22 25
Discount Rate used on Liabs (othe 7.25 7 6.5 6.25 5.75 5.75 5.75
Expected Return on Plan Assets (p 9 8.75 8.75 8.5 8.25 8 8
Expected Return on Plan Assets (other/healthcare) - % 8.5 8.25 8 8
Health Care Cost Trend Projected 10 9.3 11.5 10 9.5 9.5 8.75
Rate to which the cost trend rate 5 5 5 5 5
Discount rate
Short term investments
Corporate bonds
U.S. Government and government agency and authority obligations
Foreign bonds
Mortgage-backed securities
Equity securities
$
Expected Benefit Payments - Year 2
Direct premiums written 7534.3 9799.3 11337.7 12001.3 12179.6 12224
2015-2019
Reinsurance assumed 525.2 835.9 1266 1397.7 1119.7 954
Weighted average shares outstan 172.2 170.5 179.2 189.9 198.2 412.5 393.6
Reinsurance ceded 1098 1587.9 1535.8 1346.1 1016.7 1204
Basic earnings per share 0.65 1.31 4.51 8.15 9.21 6.13 7.13
Weighted average shares and pote 175.8 172.9 181.3 193.2 204.2 422.4 400.3
Diluted earnings per share 0.63 1.29 4.46 8.01 8.94 5.98 7.01
Fixed charges
Equity securities 60 61 60 62 60
Fixed maturities 40 39 40 38 40
Reclassification adjustment for realized gains included in net income -25
Net income 2528 2807
Change in postretirement benefit costs not yet recognized in net inco -17
Investment Income (Non-Life) 982.8 997.3 1118.3 1407.7 1580 1590
Claims and Losses (Non-Life) 5357.4 6064.6 6867.2 7813.5 6574 6299
Amortization of Deferred Policy Co 1771.4 2077.8 2535.6 2930.4 2919 3092
CY1 2008 CY1 2009 2010
Original Original Actual and Est
11828 11331 11,215

1732 1649 1,809
32 13 16
-371 372
-132
135
20
13221 13016 13,412
6898 6268 6,499

3123 3021 3,496
441 416 422
32 39 39
36 16 18
284 294 291
10814 10054 10,765 2,647
2407 2962 2,915
603 779 742.00
5 6.24 0.00
4.92 6.18 6.76
1804 2183 2,173
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1631
-371
1.32 1.4 1.48
46 254
58.5 55.4 58.10
30.2 30.6 31.20
88.7 86
607 91
-669
-6
1223
-226 170
98
625 3668
240 248
532
161
86
26.3
11782 11077 11192
11828 11331
81 80
1761 1900
315 338
1125 1558
32 50
636 342
283 288
1451 1593
6 6
4.5 4.5
127 228
10 10
76 73
10 10
99 104
17 19
-114 -118
-3 -4
112 105
25 26
6 6
8 8
8 8
8.75 8.7
5 4.5
29
33
232
175
33
121
935
96 78
66 72
70 79
78 85
83 92
576 626
361.1 350.1 314.40
5 6.24
366.8 353 307.4
4.92 6.18
277
46
54
1804
-284
6898
3123
Dividends Declared Per Share
Weighted average shares outstanding
Weighted average shares and potential shares assumed outstanding for
Ticker
Currency
Name
Start Date
End Date
Periodicity
Display Order
Data Type
Reported Status
Consolidation Level
Date: CQ1 2009 CQ2 2009 CQ3 2009

Status: Original Original Original
Income Statement
Revenues
Real Estate and Other Revenues
Realized Gains
Net Premiums Written
Decrease (Increase) in Unearned Premiums...........
Premiums Earned 2826 2828 2836
Investment Income 402 408 414
Other Revenues 3 3 1
Total Realized Investment Gains (Losses), Net -266 27 69
Other Income......................
Total Revenues 2965 3266 3320
Operating Expenses
Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Non-Life)
Decrease (Increase) in Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs......
Dividends to Policyholders.......
Highlighted Expenses as % of Operating Sales 0.7258364 0.7197157 0.7104615
Losses and Loss Expenses 1615 1572 1534
Amortization of Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs 728 757 775
Other Insurance Operating Costs and Expenses 103 102 116
Highlighted Expenses as % of Operating Sales
Investment Expenses 9 7 11
Real Estate Cost of Sales and Expenses
Real Estate and Other Expenses
Other Operating Expenses
Other Expenses 3 4 2
Investment Expenses
Other Expenses
Corporate Expenses
Investment Expenses
Corporate Expenses 77 71 73
Total Losses and Expenses 2535 2513 2511
Income Before Federal and Foreign Income Tax 430 753 809
Non-Operating Expenses
Federal and Foreign Income Tax 89 202 213
Earnings
Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations
Operating Income
Basic 0.96 1.55 1.7
Diluted 0.95 1.54 1.69
Dividends Declared Per Share 0.35 0.35 0.35
Weighted average shares outstanding
Weighted average shares and potential shares assumed outstanding
Net Income 341 551 596
Change in Unrealized Appreciation of Investments,Net of Tax
Foreign Currency Translation Gains (Losses),Net of Tax
Reference Items
Accumulated Benefit Obligation (Pension)
Underwriting Expenses (Non-Life)
Underwriting Expenses (Non-Life)
Reinsurance assumed
Accumulated Benefit Obligation (Postretirement)
Diluted, pro forma
Pro forma net income (loss)
Amortization of Deferred Policy Costs (Non-Life)
CONSOLIDATED OPERATING INCOME
Effective Tax Rate - % 19.3
Net Income 341 551 596
Basic earnings per share 0.96 1.55 1.7
Basic earnings per share
Basic earnings (loss) per share
Basic EPS
Basic
Diluted EPS
Diluted earnings per share 0.95 1.54 1.69
Diluted earnings per share
Diluted earnings (loss) per share
Diluted
Loss ratio
Effect of Catastrophes on Combined Loss and Expense Ratio Hurri
All Other
Catastrophic Ratio - %
Change in Unrealized Appreciation or Depreciation of Investments,
Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Securities
Change in Unrealized Appreciation of Investments, Net of Tax
Change in Unrealized Appreciation of Investments
Change in Unrealized Appreciation or Depreciation of Investments 327 188 813
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss), Net of Tax Change in Unreali
Change in Unrealized Other-Than-Temporary Impairment Losses on Invest -9 3
Change in Unrealized Other-Than-Temporary Impairment Losses on Invest
Change in Unrealized Appreciation or Depreciation of Investments
Change in Unrealized Other-Than- Temporary Impairment Losses on Inves
Foreign Currency Translation Gains (Losses) -113 158 98
Amortization of Net Loss and Prior Service Cost Included in Net Pos 9 3 9
Amortization of Net Loss and Prior Service Cost Included in Net Pos
Comprehensive Income 564 891 1519
Weighted average shares outstanding 355.3 354.8 350.3
Weighted average shares and potential shares assumed outstanding 358.3 357.4 353.5
Net Premiums Written 2743 2846 2705
Net Premiums Written
Net Premiums Written (Non-Life)
Total insurance
Increase in Unearned Premiums
Decrease (Increase) in Unearned Premiums -18
Decrease (Increase) in Unearned Premiums
Increase in Unearned Premiums
Change in Unearned Premiums (Non-Life)
Decrease in Unearned Premiums 83 131
Premiums Earned 2826 2828 2836
Premiums Earned
Net Premiums Earned (Non-Life)
Claims and Claim Expenses
Claims and Claim Expenses
Claims and Claim Expenses (includes asbestos and toxic waste cla
Claims and Claim Expenses (includes asbestos and toxic waste cla
Losses and Loss Expenses 1615 1572 1534
Claims and Losses (Non-Life)
Underwriting Income (Loss)
Underwriting Loss
Underwriting Income (Loss)
Underwriting Income
Underwriting Income 376 396 423
Loss Ratio As Reported (Non-Life) - %
Loss Ratio As Reported (Non-Life) - %
Loss ratio 57.3 56.5 55.8
Losses and Loss Expenses to Premiums Earned
Expense Ratios As Reported (Non-Life) - %
Expense Ratios As Reported (Non-Life) - %
Expense ratio 30.8 30.5 30.7
Underwriting Expenses to Premiums Written
Combined Ratio As Reported (Non-Life) - %
Combined Ratio As Reported (Non-Life) - %
Combined ratio 88.1 86.5
Combined Loss and Expense Ratio
Due in one year or less 87
Catastrophe Losses 26 43 22
Catastrophe Losses
Catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2010
Realized investment gains (losses) before tax -266 27 69
Benefit obligation
Benefit obligation
Plan assets at fair value
Plan assets at fair value
Funded status at end of year, included in other liabilities
Funded status at end of year, included in other liabilities
From Q4 8-K
EST
CQ4 2009 CQ1 2010 CQ2 2010 CQ3 2010 CQ4 2010 2010
Original Original Original Original Original Est and Actual
FORECASTING
Standard Deviation over last 3 years
#'s %
2,841 2782 2799 2798 2836 11,215 75.813527 0.0267326
425 410 426 412 561 1,809 44.158804 0.0787144
6 4 3 3 6 16
193 127 90 54 101 372
-
3,465 3323 3318 3267 3504 13,412
- 0 -
-
-
-
0.7066748 0.7738095 0.751937984 0.7152648 0.7465411
1,547 1730 1660 1522 1655 6,499
761 740 765 774 881 3,496
95 115 107 105 95 422
0.028169 0.0281955 0.026046512 0.0255452
12 10 8 9 12 39
-
-
-
7 4 4 3 7 18
-
-
-
-
73 76 72 70 73 291
2,495 2675 2616 2483 2723 10,497
970 648 702 784 781 2,915
-
275 184 184 212 262 842
-
-
519
2.03 1.39 1.6 1.82
2.00 1.39 1.59 1.8 1.6883539
0.35 0.37 0.37 0.37 1
324.5 314.4 639
326.7 317.3 644
695 464 518 572 620 2,174 2,073
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
19.1 19
695 464 518 572 620 2,174
2.03 1.39 1.6 3
-
-
-
1.82 2
-
2.00 1.39 1.59 2.03 6.76
-
-
1.8 2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(105) 0 56 457 -105 408
-
0 1 1
3 0 3
107 0 107
3 3
27 -28 -66 32 27 (35)
10 9 10 29
-
(2,974) 556 518 1074 -2974
(710) 332.8 324.5 314.4 -710.3
(716) 335 326.7 317.3 307.4
2,783 2765 2886 2732 2809 11,192
-
-
-
-
-87 66 (21)
-
-
-
17 17
2782 2799 2798
-
-
-
-
-
-
1730 1660 1522 4,912
-
-
-
-
-
204 263 399 866
-
-
62.3 59.5 54.5 176
-
-
-
31.3 30.9 31.7 94
-
-
-
90.4 86.2 177
93.6 94
-
344 193 537
-
58 58
127 54 181
Deviation over last 3 years
Balance Sheet for Chubb Corporation
Historical Year Ending December 31, Projected Year Ending December 31,
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
S/T Investments $2,478.0 $1,918.0 $2,046.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0
Cash $56.0 $51.0 $77.0 $122.8 $971.7 $1,285.0 $1,885.1 $2,497.2
Premiums Receivable $2,201.0 $2,101.0 $1,974.0 1,994.1 2,093.8 2,135.7 2,178.4 2,222.0
Other Assets $1,271.0 $1,200.0 $1,282.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 1,200.0
Total Current Assets: 6,006.0 5,270.0 5,379.0 5,316.9 6,265.6 6,620.7 7,263.5 7,919.2
Investments 36,260.0 40,086.0 40,167.0 39,811.1 40,113.4 41,358.7 42,633.0 43,937.1

Reinsurance Recoverable* 2,212.0 2,053.0 1,896.0 1,896.0 1,896.0 1,896.0 1,896.0 1,896.0
Investment Associated F.A. 435.0 460.0 452.0 452.0 452.0 452.0 452.0 452.0
Other F.A. 3,516.0 2,580.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0
Total Assets: $48,429.0 $50,449.0 $50,243.0 $49,825.0 $51,076.0 $52,676.4 $54,593.6 $56,553.3
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses $22,367.0 $22,839.0 $22,755.0 $23,159.0 $24,316.9 $24,803.3 $25,299.3 $25,805.3
Unearned Premiums 6,367.0 6,153.0 6,133.0 6,056.1 6,358.9 6,486.1 6,615.8 6,748.1
Other current liabilities 2,288.0 1,848.0 1,253.0 1,345.8 833.7 850.4 867.4 884.8
Total Current Liabilities: 31,022.0 30,840.0 30,141.0 30,560.9 31,509.6 32,139.7 32,782.5 33,438.2
Revolver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Long-term debt 3,975.0 3,975.0 3,975.0 3,575.0 3,575.0 3,300.0 3,300.0 3,300.0
Other long-term liabilities (used as plug) 0.0 0.0 148.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0
Total Liabilities: 34,997.0 34,815.0 34,264.0 34,201.9 35,150.6 35,505.7 36,148.5 36,804.2
Total equity 13,432.0 15,634.0 15,979.0 15,623.1 15,925.4 17,170.7 18,445.0 19,749.1
Total Liabilities and Equity: $48,429.0 $50,449.0 $50,243.0 $49,825.0 $51,076.0 $52,676.4 $54,593.6 $56,553.3
Parity check (A = L+E) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.000)
Balance Sheet - Traditional
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Balance Sheet
S/T Investments 957 1,757 2,696 1,308 1,899 2,254 1,839 2,478 1,918 2,046 S/T Investments Investments 44,975
Cash 26 42 52 42 36 38 49 56 51 77 Cash Premiums 2,054
Premiums Receivable 1,693 2,041 2,188 2,336 2,319 2,314 2,227 2,201 2,101 1,974 Premiums Receivable Other 1,311
Other Assets 1,332 1,768 1,406 3,307 1,429 1,514 1,366 1,271 1,200 1,282 Other Assets Oper. Cash 68
Total C.A. 4,007 5,607 6,342 6,992 5,683 6,120 5,481 6,006 5,270 5,379 Total C.A. Excess Cash
Curr Assets 48,408
Investments 16,827 19,256 23,926 29,851 32,735 35,439 38,242 36,260 40,086 40,167 Investments Unpaid Los 22,755
Reinsurance Recover 4,505 4,072 3,427 3,483 3,769 2,594 2,307 2,212 2,053 1,896 Reinsurance Recoverable* Unearned P 6,506
Investment Associate 1,698 2,420 1,823 1,170 3,095 3,232 1,687 435 460 452 Investment Associated F.A.Other CL 1,370
Other F.A. 2,412 2,727 2,843 2,764 2,779 2,892 2,857 3,516 2,580 2,349 Other F.A. Curr Liabs 30,630
Total F.A. 25,442 28,474 32,019 37,268 42,378 44,157 45,093 42,423 45,179 44,864 Total F.A.
Op W. Cap 17,778
Total Assets 29,449 34,081 38,361 44,260 48,061 50,277 50,574 48,429 50,449 50,243 Total Assets
Reinsuranc 1,712
Unpaid Losses and L 15,515 16,713 17,948 20,292 22,482 22,293 22,623 22,367 22,839 22,755 Unpaid Losses and Loss ExOther FA 2,941
Unearned Premiums 3,916 5,050 5,939 6,356 6,361 6,546 6,599 6,367 6,153 6,133 Unearned Premiums Total F Ass 4,653
Accts Pay 475 1,415 773 1,929 2,167 2,724 1,357 118 118 115 Accts Pay
Other C.L. 1,666 2,118 2,365 2,744 2,177 2,385 2,090 2,170 1,730 1,138 Other C.L. Total Asset 22,431
Total C.L. 21,573 25,296 27,025 31,320 33,186 33,948 32,669 31,022 30,840 30,141 Total C.L.
S.T. Debt -
L.T. Debt 1,351 1,959 2,814 2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975 3,975 3,975 L.T. Debt
Deferred Inc Tax - - - - - - - - - 148 Deferred Inc Tax L.t. Debt 3,975
Total L.T. 1,351 1,959 2,814 2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975 3,975 4,123 Total L.T. Other Liabs 685
Total L.T. L 4,660
Stk Equity 6,525 6,826 8,522 10,126 12,407 13,863 14,445 13,432 15,634 15,979 Stk Equity
Total Debt 4,660
Total L&E 29,449 34,081 38,361 44,260 48,061 50,277 50,574 48,429 50,449 50,243 Total L&E
Equity 17,771
Shares (millions) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 12/31/2010
Wt Avg Shares out 172.20 170.50 179.20 189.90 198.20 412.50 393.60 361.10 350.10 326.00 Total Liab/ 22,431
Wt Avg Shares dilute 175.80 172.90 181.30 193.20 204.20 422.40 400.30 366.80 353.00 321.60 4Q
22,431
Source: Bloomberg, Mergent Online 22,431
*on Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses 0
Ticker #NAME?
Currency
Name
Start Date
End Date
Periodicity
Display Order
Data Type
Reported Status
Consolidation Level
Date: CY1 2001 CY1 2002 CY1 2003

Status: Restated Restated Original
Balance Sheet
Investments
Short Term Investments 957 1,757 2,696
Tax Exempt (cost $8,053.8 and $7,889.3)
Taxable (cost $5,666.6 and $5,054.7)
Tax Exempt (cost $8,053.8 and $8,053.8) 8,373
Taxable (cost $6,408.2 and $5,666.6) 6,525
Tax Exempt (cost $10,509.7 and $8,449.2) 9,083 11,154
Taxable (cost $10,531.8 and $8,112.5) 8,386 10,791
Fixed Income Available for Sale
Fixed Income Available for Sale
Tax Exempt (cost $15,448.5 and $13,522.6)
Taxable (cost $14,515.8 and $13,362.7)
Tax Exempt (cost $17,314 and $15,449)
Taxable (cost $14,310 and $14,515)
Equity Securities (cost $1,215 and $1,563) 710 992 1,514
Other Invested Assets 176 173 181
Held-to-Maturity — Tax Exempt (market $142 a 1,219 795 467
TOTAL INVESTED ASSETS 17,784 21,012 26,622
Investment in Partially Owned Company 386 267 312
Securities Lending Collateral 418 1,355 705
Real Estate Assets 647 551 519
Other Assets
Cash 26 42 52
Accrued Investment Income 248 247 287
Premiums Receivable 1,693 2,041 2,188
Reinsurance Recoverable on Unpaid Losses and 4,505 4,072 3,427
Prepaid Reinsurance Premiums 341 479 391
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs 929 1,150 1,343
Deferred Income Tax 675 631 641
Goodwill 467 467 467
Other Assets 1,332 1,768 1,406
Other Assets
TOTAL ASSETS 29,449 34,081 38,361
Reserves
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses 15,515 16,713 17,948
Unearned Premiums 3,916 5,050 5,939
Deferred Income Tax
Short Term Debt 199
Long Term Debt 1,351 1,959 2,814
Securities Lending Payable 418 1,355 705
Dividend Payable to Shareholders 58 60 68
Accrued Expenses and Other Liabilities 1,467 2,118 2,365
TOTAL LIABILITIES 22,924 27,255 29,839
Stockholder Equity
Receivable from Employee Stock Ownership Pla (49) (34) (18)
Preferred Stock - Authorized 8,000,000 Shares; $1 Par Value; Issued -
Common Stock - Authorized 1,200,000,000 Shares 180 180 196
Paid-In Surplus 527 445 1,319
Retained Earnings 6,369 6,319 6,869
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Treasury Stock, at Cost - 39,972,796 and 19,726 (682) (614) (529)
Unrealized Appreciation of Investments, Net of 253 586 674
Foreign Currency Translation Gains, Net of Tax (73) (57) 12
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 6,525 6,826 8,522
29,449 34,081 38,361
Common Stock, Par Value 1 1 1
Common Stock, Shares Issued 180,131,238 180,296,834 195,803,824
Common Stock, Shares Authorized 600,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000
Treasury Stock, Shares 10,059,857 9,095,162 7,840,448
170,071,381
Reference Items
ESOP Shares (Number) 4,008,152 4,355,000 4,666,000
Shares Issued 180,131,238 180,296,834 195,803,824
Treasury Shares (Number) 10,059,857 9,095,162 7,840,448
Par Value 1 1 1
Shares Outstanding from the Front Cover 170,973,722 171,217,974 188,701,756
Net Liability for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjust 10,051 11,010 12,642
One year later 9,856 11,799 13,039
ARD Ref Reestimated Reserves Year 1 9,856 11,799 13,039
Four years later 7,145 8,527 9,740
Five years later 6,409 7,571 8,656
Six years later 6,477 6,887 7,694
Seven years later 6,045 7,036 7,052
Eight years later 5,692 6,655 7,254
Nine years later 5,468 6,346 6,870
Ten years later 5,200 6,171 6,594
One year later 2,794 3,085 3,399
Two years later 4,079 4,669 5,354
Three years later 4,653 5,286 5,981
Four years later 4,711 5,351 6,139
Five years later 4,556 5,133 5,894
Six years later 5,011 4,857 5,481
Seven years later 4,897 5,251 5,137
Eight years later 4,738 5,068 5,481
Nine years later 4,628 4,884 5,235
Ten years later 4,403 4,748 5,038
Gross Liability, End of Year 15,515 16,713 17,948
/s/ Martin G. McGuinn (Martin G. McGuinn) 4,505 4,072 3,427
Net Liability, End of Year 11,010 12,642 14,521
Annualized investment yield (pre-tax) 6 5 5
Annualized investment yield (after-tax) 5 4 4
Book Value Per Share
Principal due under long term debt
Total Line of Credit 500 500 500
Debt Schedule Thereafter
Debt Schedule - Total Long Term Debt 1,351 1,959 2,814
ARD Contractual Obligations - Year 1 269
Total 563
Total 214
ARD Contractual Obligations - Years 2 & 3
Total 867
Total 831
ARD Contractual Obligations - Years 4 & 5
ARD Contractual Obligations - beyond Year 5 2,069
ARD Total Contractual Obligations 4,813
It is uncertain whether and, if so, when we will be required to fund
ARDR Quality Rating - Below Investment Grade ( 485 550 68
ARDR Qualtiy Rating - AA/aa 11,108 12,587 15,652
ARDR Quality Rating - AAA/aaa 639 749 581
ARDR Quality Rating - Unrated 2,458 2,407 3,309
ARDR Quality Rating - Investment Grade 1,491 2,026 2,837
About 50% of our
Equity Securities (cost $839.8 and $715.0)...........
Total available-for-sale......
Held-to-maturity -- Tax exempt......
Short Term Investments 957 1,757
Equity Securities (cost $757.9 and $839.8) 710
Total available-for-sale 14,898 17,469
Held-to-maturity — Tax exempt 1,283 851
Equity Securities (cost $998.3 and $757.9) 992
Total available-for-sale 21,945
Held-to-maturity — Tax exempt 502
Short Term Investments 2,696
Equity Securities (cost $1,381.4 and $998.3) 1,514
Equity Securities (cost $1,687.3 and $1,381.4)
Total available-for-sale
Held-to-maturity — Tax exempt
Equity Securities (cost $2,088.1 and $1,687.3)
Equity Securities (cost $1,561 and $1,045)
Other Invested Assets
Short Term Investments
Mortgage-backed securities
Tax exempt
Total Investments In Securities
Total fixed maturities
Equity securities
Tax exempt........................
Tax exempt........................
Foreign bonds...................
Foreign bonds...................
Redeemable preferred stocks.....
Tax exempt 15 4 16
Tax exempt 334 638 660
Foreign bonds 1 8 21
Foreign bonds 44 101 88
Redeemable preferred stocks 1 0 1
Foreign government and government agency obligations
Foreign government and government agency obligations
Equity securities
Equity securities
Tax exempt
obligations...................
obligations...................
U.S. Government and government agency and aut 25 59 6
U.S. Government and government agency and authority obligations 30
U.S. Government and government agency and aut 685 1,243 2,065
Corporate bonds.................
Corporate bonds.................
Corporate bonds 29 43 6
Corporate bonds 58 108 141
Corporate bonds 2,038 2,044 2,105
Foreign government and government agency obl 1,626 2,278 3,147
Mortgage-backed securities......
Mortgage-backed securities......
Mortgage-backed securities 17 24 33
Mortgage-backed securities 36 80 66
Residential mortgage-backed securities
Residential mortgage-backed securities
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
Residential mortgage-backed securities 1,065 1,388 2,324
Commercial mortgage-backed securities 1,065 1,388 1,094
Debt Schedule in yr 2 100 301
Foreign tax credits
Total (675) (631) (641)
Net deferred income tax asset
Weighted Average Cost of Options Granted 18 19 10
Risk-free interest rate 5 5 3
Expected volatility 26 27 28
Dividend yield 2 2 3
Expected average term (in years) 6 6 6
Granted 3,760,311 4,371,066 4,326,225
Outstanding, December 31, 2009 18,376,304 19,855,186 22,032,594
Avg exercise price (Options outstanding) 56 64 61
Exercisable, December 31, 2009 12,215,260 14,449,000 16,176,926
Avg exercise price (Options exercisable) 58 60 63
Held-to-maturity -- Tax exempt......
Held-to-maturity — Tax exempt 64 56 0
Held-to-maturity — Tax exempt 35
Held-to-maturity — Tax exempt 1,283 851 502
Tax exempt........................
Redeemable preferred stocks.....
Tax exempt 8,373 9,083 11,154
Redeemable preferred stocks 46 46 56
Redeemable preferred stocks
Redeemable preferred stocks
Office facilities 82 105
Equipment 16 19
Equipment 17
Office facilities 95
Current Rental Expense
$
Rental Expense - Year 1 91 97 96
Rental Expense - Beyond Year 5 350 338 333
Future Minimum Operating Lease Obligations 720 739 745
Long term debt (Note 8) 1,387 2,000 3,096
ARD Ref Fair Value Assets Recur - Level 2
Fixed maturities
FV Assets-Rec.-Level 3-Securities AFS: Other
FV Assets-Rec.-Level 3-Securities AFS: Other
Fixed maturities
Equity securities
ARD Ref Fair Value Assets Recur - Total
ARD Ref Fair Value Assets Recur - Total
FV Assets-Rec.-Total:Securities available for sale
FV Assets-Rec.-Total:Securities available for sale
Fixed maturities
Equity securities
Equity securities
Repurchase of shares
Repurchase of shares
Common stock outstanding, end of year 170,071,381 171,201,672 187,963,376
Statutory Capital 3,815 4,512 6,368
Statutory Net Income 622 (27) 916
CY1 2004 CY1 2005 CY1 2006 CY1 2007 CY1 2008
Original Original Original Original Original
1,308 1,899 2,254 1,839 2,478
14,071
13,621
15,750
14,568
17,613
14,218
18,559
15,312
18,345
14,410
1,841 2,212 1,957 2,320 1,479

193 204 422 400 367
317 205 135
31,158 34,633 37,693 40,081 38,738
346 260
2,077 2,620 1,247
474 367 201
42 36 38 49 56
350 391 411 440 435
2,336 2,319 2,314 2,227 2,201
3,483 3,769 2,594 2,307 2,212
328 244 354 392 373
1,435 1,445 1,480 1,556 1,532
534 623 591 442 1,144
467 467 467 467 467
3,307 1,429 1,514 1,366 1,271
44,260 48,061 50,277 50,574 48,429
20,292 22,482 22,293 22,623 22,367

6,356 6,361 6,546 6,599 6,367
2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975

1,854 2,077 2,620 1,247
75 90 104 110 118
2,744 2,177 2,385 2,090 2,170
34,134 35,654 36,414 36,129 34,997
196 210 411 375 372

1,319 2,364 1,539 346 253
8,119 9,600 11,711 13,280 14,509
202 444 (735)
(211) (135) (967)
625 311
79 57
10,126 12,407 13,863 14,445 13,432
44,260 48,061 50,277 50,574 48,429
1 1 1 1 1
195,803,824 210,432,298 411,276,940 374,649,923 371,980,710
600,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,200,000,000
3,127,282 1,393,900 19,726,097
1 1
194,166,186 207,408,188 408,589,297 370,249,648 352,324,016
14,521 16,809 18,713 19,699 20,316
14,848 16,971 18,417 19,002 19,443
14,848 16,971 18,417 19,002 19,443
13,634 15,315 17,048 17,861 18,215
12,642 14,407 15,667 16,725 17,298
11,150 13,246 14,842 15,584 16,526
9,999 11,605 13,676 14,907 15,657
8,844 10,373 11,936 13,812 15,064
7,822 9,119 10,602 12,019 13,994
7,197 8,061 9,324 10,702 12,170
7,423 7,411 8,247 9,434 10,828
7,055 7,597 7,601 8,383 9,536
3,342 4,031 3,948 3,873 4,108
5,671 6,095 6,594 6,586 6,789
6,932 7,753 8,039 8,487 8,850
7,012 8,390 9,147 9,466 10,048
6,829 7,894 9,378 10,250 10,794
6,326 7,382 8,635 10,126 11,353
5,807 6,680 7,926 9,159 10,950
5,420 6,060 7,040 8,310 9,714
5,735 5,641 6,335 7,330 8,697
5,472 5,916 5,879 6,599 7,562
20,292 22,482 22,293 22,623 22,367
3,483 3,769 2,594 2,307 2,212
16,809 18,713 19,699 20,316 20,155
4 4 4 4 4
4 3 3 4 3
685
500 500 500 500 500
2,375 3,300
2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975
570 226 895 5,941 5,243
1,099 1,726 990 7,500 7,495
982 262 652 4,903 4,608
1,995 1,887 1,401 12,261 14,066

4,646 4,101 3,938 30,605 31,412
561 611 639 339 328

19,875 22,867 24,277 25,553 22,660
2,758 1,911 705 626
450 860 1,085 5,583 7,359
3,840 2,754 2,718 2,302 2,334
3,304 3,442 3,254 95 75
1,899 2,478
27,692 31,831 33,871

338 142
1,308 2,254
1,841
30,318
216
2,212
1,957
1,516
1,839
2,320
2,051
4,750
1,479
2,026
18,345
14,410
22 61 42 34 405
570 362 341 385 451
7 17 57 63 42
126 107 39 66 340
1 0
15,750 17,613 18,559 18,345
14 17 26 2 4
14 6 1 36 43
(2,758) (1,911) (705) (626)
2,805 2,758 1,911 705 626
11 35 24 22 143
107 56 42 42 39
2,534 2,630 2,397 2,908 3,057
4,472 4,837 5,571 6,949 6,962
29 82 21 42 467
72 34 88 31 52
2,853 3,141 2,907 2,850 2,447

901 1,162 1,432 1,900 1,318
1 675 685
686 400
(534) (623) 591 442 1,144
15 15 8 8 6
3 4 5 4 3
26 22 16 17 16
2 2 2 2 3
4 4 3 4 4
179,579 379,291 564,411 203,481 330,329
17,741,298 8,677,898 11,508,056 8,107,931 5,814,200
63 66 34 34 35
15,650,019 8,555,486 11,218,976 7,883,973 5,592,086
65 66 34 34 34
21 11 7
338 216 142

14,071
56
0
40
114 101 98 93
92
676 685 400
94 89 87 89 78
1 400 275
88 89 80 80 64
86 81 69 66 58
78 70 59 60 51
69 58 57 54 48
297 253 219 181 133
712 640 571 530 432
301 675 685
3,113 2,504 3,427 3,493
32,481
32,481
274
204
274
204
32,755
1,479
1,479
32,755
1,275
1,275
(41,733,268) 22,310,886
(4,017,884)
192,676,542 209,038,398 411,276,940 374,649,923 352,254,613
7,848 8,910 11,357 12,998 12,342
1,664 1,897 2,575 2,859 1,963
2,807 1,804 2,183
CY1 2009 9/30/2010
Original
1,918 2046
19,587 447.2
16,991
20248
17136
1,433 1,550
353 2213
42,004 42213
51 77
460 452
2,101 1974
2,053 1896
308 319
1,533 1563
272
467 467
1,200 1282
50,449 50243
22,839 22755
6,153 6133
148
- -839
3,975 3975
118 115
1,730 1977
34,815 34264
-
372 372
224 191
16,235 17435
720 1314
(1,917) -3333
15,634 15979
50,449 50243
1
371,980,460
1,200,000,000
39,972,796
1
328,574,448
20,155
19,393
19,393
18,619
17,571
16,884
16,411
15,798
15,255
14,218
12,364
11,011
4,063
6,565
8,554
10,089
10,977
11,530
11,915
11,390
10,046
8,944
22,839
2,053
20,786
4
3
47
500
3,300
3,975
5,341
7,381
4,438
14,209
31,369
850
366
24,419
758
7,342
4,399
53
1,918
2,075
36,578
1,433
66
933
11
221
43
261
19,587
10
12
(758)
758
24
327
6,590
6,113
20
69
49
6
1,899
1,631
400
275
879
2,181
272
6
2
24
3
5
131,800
4,915,461
36
4,679,664
35
88
72
66
57
50
41
110
396
4,102
36,427
36,427
151
226
151
226
36,578
1,433
36,578
1,433
1,207
1,207
22,623,775
332,007,664
14,526
2,357
1,710
Projected Cash Flow Statement for Chubb Corporation
Projected Year Ending December 31,

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Operating Activities
Net Income $1,608.6 $1,705.7 $1,778.9 $1,820.5 $1,862.9
Stock-based compensation expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Increase)/decrease in other long-term assets and liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operating Activities: 1,608.6 1,705.7 1,778.9 1,820.5 1,862.9
Investing Activities
Capital expenditures 771.2 (543.6) 658.2 675.6 693.3
Additions to intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Investing Activities: 771.2 (543.6) 658.2 675.6 693.3
CASH FLOW AVAILABLE FOR FINANCING ACTIVITIES 2,379.8 1,162.2 2,437.1 2,496.1 2,556.2
Financing Activities
Issuance / (repayment) of revolver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Issuance of long-term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Repayment) of long-term debt (400.0) 0.0 (275.0) 0.0 0.0
Repurchase of equity (1,481.9) (891.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends (482.6) (511.7) (533.7) (546.2) (558.9)
Option proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Financing Activities: (2,364.5) (1,403.4) (808.7) (546.2) (558.9)
Net Change in Cash 15.3 (241.2) 1,628.4 1,949.9 1,997.4

Beginning cash balance 77.0 92.3 (148.9) 1,479.5 3,429.5
Ending cash balance $92.3 ($148.9) $1,479.5 $3,429.5 $5,426.8
Working Capital Schedule for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Premiums Earned $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5
Losses and Loss Expenses 6,898.0 6,268.0 6,499.0 6,616.8 6,947.7 7,086.6 7,228.4 7,372.9
Working Capital Balances

Cash $56.0 $51.0 $77.0 $61.5 $64.5 $65.8 $67.1 $68.5
Premiums Receivable 2,201.0 2,101.0 1,974.0 1,994.1 2,093.8 2,135.7 2,178.4 2,222.0
Investments 36,260.0 40,086.0 40,167.0 39,811.1 40,113.4 41,358.7 42,633.0 43,937.1
Total Current Assets incl Investments: $38,517.0 $42,238.0 $42,218.0 $41,866.7 $42,271.8 $43,560.2 $44,878.6 $46,227.5
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses $22,367.0 $22,839.0 $22,755.0 $23,159.0 $24,316.9 $24,803.3 $25,299.3 $25,805.3
Unearned Premiums 6,367.0 6,153.0 6,133.0 6,056.1 6,358.9 6,486.1 6,615.8 6,748.1
Other current liabilities 2,288.0 1,848.0 1,253.0 1,345.8 833.7 850.4 867.4 884.8
Total Non-Debt Current Liabilities: $31,022.0 $30,840.0 $30,141.0 $30,560.9 $31,509.6 $32,139.7 $32,782.5 $33,438.2
NET WORKING CAPITAL / (DEFICIT) $7,495.0 $11,398.0 $12,077.0 $11,305.8 $10,762.2 $11,420.5 $12,096.0 $12,789.4
(Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital ($3,903.0) ($679.0) $771.2 $543.6 ($658.2) ($675.6) ($693.3)
Ratios and Assumptions

Numbers of days in the period 365 ç cell is named "Days"
Cash (collection period in days) 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Premiums Receivable (days outstanding) 116.5 122.3 110.9 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0
Investments (as % of sales) 306.6% 353.8% 358.2% 355.0% 340.6% 344.3% 348.0% 351.6%
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses (x losses and loss ex 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Unearned Premiums (as % premiums earned) 53.8% 54.3% 54.7% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0%
Other current liabilities (as % of sales) 19.3% 16.3% 11.2% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Investment Schedule for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5

Capital expenditures 0.0 (3,903.0) (679.0) 771.2 543.6 (658.2) (675.6) (693.3)
Capital expenditures as % of sales 0.0% (34.4%) (6.1%) 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Depreciation expense $69.0 $64.0 $69.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Depreciation as % of CapEx n/a (1.6%) (10.2%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Depreciation as % of PP&E, net 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beginning Investments $40,167.0 $39,811.1 $40,113.4 $41,358.7 $42,633.0

Change in Retained Earnings Historicals not needed (355.9) 302.3 1,245.2 1,274.4 1,304.1
Realized Investment Gain/Loss 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Asset sales and write-offs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ending Investments $36,260.0 $40,086.0 $40,167.0 $39,811.1 $40,113.4 $41,358.7 $42,633.0 $43,937.1
Amortization Schedule for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5

Additions to definite life intangibles 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Additions as % of sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Amortization expense $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Amortization as % of intangibles, net 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beginning definite life intangibles $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0

Additions to definite life intangibles Historicals not needed 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Amortization expense) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Write-offs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ending definite life intangibles $2,212.0 $2,053.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0
Other Long-Term Items Schedule for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Assets
Investment Associated F.A. $435.0 $460.0 $452.0 $452.0 $452.0 $452.0 $452.0 $452.0
Other F.A. 3,516.0 2,580.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0 2,349.0
Total Other Long-Term Assets: $3,951.0 $3,040.0 $2,801.0 $2,801.0 $2,801.0 $2,801.0 $2,801.0 $2,801.0
(Increase)/Decrease in Other Assets: 911.0 239.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Liabilities
Other long-term liabilities (used as plug) $0.0 $0.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0
Total Other Long-Term Liabilities: $0.0 $0.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0 $148.0
Increase/(Decrease) in Other Long-term Liabilities: 0.0 148.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Increase)/Decrease in Other Long-Term Assets and Liabilities $911.0 $387.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Shareholders' Equity Schedule for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total equity
Beginning balance $15,979.0 $15,623.1 $15,925.4 $17,170.7 $18,445.0
Net income 1,608.6 1,705.7 1,778.9 1,820.5 1,862.9
Stock-based compensation expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Repurchase of equity Historicals not needed (1,481.9) (891.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends (482.6) (511.7) (533.7) (546.2) (558.9)
Ending balance $13,432.0 $15,634.0 $15,979.0 $15,623.1 $15,925.4 $17,170.7 $18,445.0 $19,749.1
Share repurchase assumptions

Current year EPS $5.49 $6.60 $7.09 $7.26 $7.43
Assumed current year P/E Multiple 9.0x 9.0x 9.0x 9.0x 9.0x
Projected share price $49.40 $59.44 $63.85 $65.34 $66.86
Shares repurchased - millions 30.000 26.000 17.000 30.000 15.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
$ amount repurchased $1,140.0 $903.0 $527.0 $1,481.9 $891.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
New shares from exercised options

New shares issued from options - millions 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Average strike price $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Option proceeds $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Dividend assumptions
Dividends $471.0 $487.0 $476.0 $482.6 $511.7 $533.7 $546.2 $558.9
Net income 1,735.0 2,119.0 2,173.0 1,608.6 1,705.7 1,778.9 1,820.5 1,862.9
Dividend payout ratio 27.1% 23.0% 21.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Shares Outstanding Table for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Beginning balance - basic (actual) 304.000 274.000 259.000 259.000 259.000

Shares issued from options Historicals not needed 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Shares repurchased (30.000) (15.000) 0.000 0.000 0.000
Ending balance - basic (actual) 350.100 326.000 304.000 274.000 259.000 259.000 259.000 259.000
Average basic shares 393.600 361.100 330.000 301.333 266.500 259.000 259.000 259.000
Effects of options and dilutive securities (26.800) (8.100) (8.400) (8.250) (8.250) (8.250) (8.250) (8.250)
Average diluted shares 366.800 353.000 321.600 293.083 258.250 250.750 250.750 250.750
Debt and Interest Schedule for Chubb Corporation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash Flow Available for Financing Activities $2,379.8 $1,162.2 $2,437.1 $2,496.1 $2,556.2
Repurchase of equity (1,481.9) (891.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends (482.6) (511.7) (533.7) (546.2) (558.9)
Plus: Beginning cash balance 2,046.0 2,000.0 2,000.0 2,000.0 2,000.0
Less: Minimum cash balance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Available for Debt Repayment $2,461.3 $1,758.8 $3,903.4 $3,949.9 $3,997.4
Long-term debt issuance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long-term debt (repayments) (400.0) 0.0 (275.0) 0.0 0.0
Excess Cash Available for Revolver $2,061.3 $1,758.8 $3,628.4 $3,949.9 $3,997.4
Revolver
Beginning balance $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Issuance / (repayment) of revolver Use – MIN statement ---> 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ending balance $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Long-term debt
Beginning Balance $3,975.0 $3,575.0 $3,575.0 $3,300.0 $3,300.0
Issuance Assume LT debt is refinanced ---> 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Repayment / Amortization) Review 10K for repayment schedule -> (400.0) 0.0 (275.0) 0.0 0.0
Ending Balance $3,975.0 $3,975.0 $3,975.0 $3,575.0 $3,575.0 $3,300.0 $3,300.0 $3,300.0
Revolver Average Balance $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Interest Rate 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28%
Interest Expense $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Long-term debt Average Balance $3,775.0 $3,575.0 $3,437.5 $3,300.0 $3,300.0

Interest Rate 5.60% 5.60% 5.60% 5.60% 5.60%
Interest Expense $211.4 $200.2 $192.5 $184.8 $184.8
Total Interest Expense $211.4 $200.2 $192.5 $184.8 $184.8
Cash Balances: Average Balance $2,023.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0

Interest Rate 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Interest (Income) ($20.2) ($20.0) ($20.0) ($20.0) ($20.0)
Chubb Corporation – Pro Forma
($ millions)
Income Statement Final Forecast
2011 1st Pass Final
Full Year Historic Analysis Used in Pro Forma F'cast F'cast FULL YEAR
Year-end % Explanation % Explanation 2012 2012 Income Statement 2011 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011 2012
Premium Earn a 13,044 0% Last quarter Sales Growth 5% Economic Recovery (Cons Gro 13,696 13,696 Premium Earn and Inv Income Premium Earn and Inv Income 3,261 3,261 3,261 3,261 13,044 13,696 QUARTERLY
Losses and Amor 9,783 75% % of Sales 74% 1% lower claims as % sales 10,135 10,135 Losses and Amort of Acq Costs Losses and Amort of Acq Costs 2,446 2,446 2,446 2,446 9,783 10,135 2010 Actual 2011 Fin Model Forecast
Gross Pft 3,261 Computation Sales - Losses and Amort AcComputation 3,561 3,561 Gross Pft Gross Pft 815 815 815 815 3,261 3,561 Quarter 2010 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2011 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q
Inv & Corp Exp 368 3% Historical % of Sales 3% Stable - status quo 386 386 Inv & Corp Exp Inv & Corp Exp 92 92 92 92 368 386 Op Inc/share (dil) 1.14 1.41 1.69 1.69 1.17 1.33 1.36 1.39
Other Op Exp 652 5% Plug (excl from 8K) 5% Historic % 685 685 Other Op Exp Other Op Exp 196 163 163 163 685 685 Average 1.38 1.46 1.35 1.53
Net Realized In 250 Excluded from Op Inc 0% Economic Recovery Increase 350 350 Net Realized Inv Gain Net Realized Inv Gain 100 50 50 50 250 350 High Estimate 1.62 1.63 1.55 1.14
Non-Op Inc - Plug (excl from 8K) 0% Zero - - Non-Op Inc Non-Op Inc - - - - - - 19 Street Estimates Low Estimate 1.15 1.36 1.68 1.35
Tax Inc 2,491 Computation Op Inc - Int - Non-op Inc Computation 2,840 2,840 Tax Inc Tax Inc 627 610 610 610 2,458 2,840
Taxes 697 28% % of Taxable Income 28% Historic % of taxable income 795 795 Taxes Taxes 176 171 171 171 688 795 FULL YEAR
Op Inc 1,544 Computation GP - SGA - Dep Computation 2,490 2,490 Op Inc Op Inc 352 389 389 389 1,520 1,695 Actual Actual Forecast
Net Inc 1,770 Computation Tax Inc - Taxes Computation 2,045 2,045 Net Inc Net Inc 452 439 439 439 1,770 2,045 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 est
Op Inc/share (diluted) 1.17 1.33 1.36 1.39 5.42 6.63 Op Inc/share (dil) 6.41 5.58 6.14 5.90 5.42 6.63
Net Inc/share (diluted) 1.51 1.50 1.53 1.57 6.31 8.00 Average 5.68 5.81
Dividend 400 $ value $/share x # shares outstdg. $ value Constant $ value - share repur 400 400 Dividend Dividend 100 100 100 100 400 400 High Estimate 6.09 6.85
R/Inc 1,370 Computation Net Inc-Div Computation 1,645 1,645 R/Inc R/Inc 352 339 339 339 1,370 1,645 20 Street Estimates Low Estimate 5.2 5.00
Balance Sheet Balance Sheet

Investments 43,192 331% Running total (+ RE - Div) n/a Running total (+NI-Div-Share 42,920 42,920 Investments Investments* 42,184 42,520 42,856 43,192 43,192 42,920 1.80
Premiums Rec 1,957 4% % of Sales/4 4% % of Annual Sales 2,054 2,054 Premiums Rec Premiums Rec 1,957 1,957 1,957 1,957 1,957 2,054
1.70
2010 - 2011 Quarterly Operating EPS
Other 719 6% % of Sales Plug Plug since no excess cash 796 796 Other Other 709 712 715 719 719 796
1.69 1.69
Oper. Cash 65 1% % of Sales 0.5% % of Sales 68 68 Oper. Cash Oper. Cash 65 65 65 65 65 68 1.60
Excess Cash - Plug Balance Bal Sheet Plug Excess Cash Excess Cash - - - - -
Curr Assets 45,933 Computation Inv+A/R+Other+Cash+Ex Computation 45,839 45,839 Curr Assets Curr Assets 44,915 45,254 45,593 45,933 45,933 45,839 1.50
Unpaid Losses 22,755 0% Relatively Constant 0% Constant to Activity Cycle 22,755 22,755 Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses 22,755 22,755 22,755 22,755 22,755 22,755
1.40
Unearned Prem 6,196 48% % of Sales 48% % of Sales 6,506 6,506 Unearned Prem Unearned Prem 6,196 6,196 6,196 6,196 6,196 6,506 1.41 1.39
Other CL 1,304 10% % of Sales 10% % of Sales - lower trend revers 1,370 1,370 Other CL Other CL 1,304 1,304 1,304 1,304 1,304 1,370 1.30 1.36
1.33
Curr Liabs 30,255 Computation A/P + Other Computation 30,630 30,630 Curr Liabs Curr Liabs 30,255 30,255 30,255 30,255 30,255 30,630
1.20
Op W. Cap 15,677 Computation Curr Assets - Curr Liabs Computation 15,208 15,208 Op W. Cap Op W. Cap 14,659 14,999 15,337 15,677 15,677 15,208
1.10 1.17
1.14 Op Inc/share (dil)
Reinsurance Re 1,631 13% % of Sales 13% % of Sales 1,712 1,712 Reinsurance Recoverable Reinsurance Recoverable 1,631 1,631 1,631 1,631 1,631 1,712 1.00
Other FA 2,801 21% % of Sales 21% % of Sales 2,941 2,941 Other FA Other FA 2,801 2,801 2,801 2,801 2,801 2,941 2010 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2011 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q
Total F Assets 4,432 Computation NPPE + Other FA Computation 4,653 4,653 Total F Assets Total F Assets 4,432 4,432 4,432 4,432 4,432 4,653
6.80
Total Assets 20,109 Computation W.Cap + Fixed Assets Computation 19,861 19,861 Total Assets Total Assets 19,091 19,430 19,769 20,109 20,109 19,861 2007 - 2012 Annual EPS
6.60
6.63
S.T. Debt - Plug Balance Bal Sheet Plug - - S.T. Debt S.T. Debt - - - - - -
6.40
6.41
L.t. Debt 3,975 Low Debt Low Debt $400m matures 3,575 3,575 L.t. Debt L.t. Debt 3,975 3,975 3,975 3,975 3,975 3,575 6.20
Other Liabs 163 1% % of Sales 1% % of Sales 171 171 Other Liabs Other Liabs 163 163 163 163 163 171
Total L.T. Liab 4,138 Computation LT Debt + Other Computation 3,746 3,746 Total L.T. Liab Total L.T. Liab 4,138 4,138 4,138 4,138 4,138 3,746 6.14
6.00
Total Debt 4,138 Computation ST Debt + Lt Liabs Computation 3,746 3,746 Total Debt Total Debt 4,138 4,138 4,138 4,138 4,138 3,746 5.80 5.90
Shares Outstand 281 Repurchase 6.5m/quarter Repurchase 6.25m/quarter Shares Outstanding Shares Outstanding 300.0 293.5 287.0 280.5 280.5 255.5
Equity 15,971 Computation Last Yrs EQ + R/inc - repurc Computation (including 25mm share rep)- 16,115 16,115 Equity Equity 14,953 15,292 15,631 15,971 15,971 16,115 5.60
5.58
Total Liab/Cap. 20,109 Computation Equity + Total Debt Computation 19,861 19,861 Total Liab/Cap. Total Liab/Cap. 19,091 19,430 19,769 20,109 20,109 19,861 5.40
5.42
Assets 19,861 19,861 5.20

Op Inc/share (dil)
Liabs & Eq 19,861 19,861
5.00
Diff (goes to "plug acct.) (0) -
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 est
EARNINGS ESTIMATES
A QTR(6/11) FY(12/11) FY(12/12)

Average Estimate 1.38 1.46 5.68 5.81
Number of Analysts 19 19 20 20
High Estimate 1.62 1.63 6.09 6.85 FULL YEAR HEURISTIC
Low Estimate 1.15 1.36 5.2 5 Actual Forecast
Year Ago EPS 1.14 1.41 5.9 5.68 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 est
Growth Rate 21.05% 3.77% -3.77% 2.25% Operating Income 2564 2045 2168 1900 1900 1995
Operating Income/share (dil) 6.41 5.58 6.14 5.90 5.90 6.20
Average Estimate 5.68 5.81
20 Street Estimates High Estimate 6.09 6.85
Low Estimate 5.20 5.00
2011 Operating Income Guidance
Mr. Finnegan said that based on management’s current outlook, he expected Chubb to achieve 2011
$5.75.
The operating income guidance for 2011 assumes:
· Net written premiums that are flat to up 2%.
· Catastrophe losses that have an impact of 3.5 percentage points on the 2011 combined ra
impact of catastrophe losses in 2011 is based on Chubb’s long-term average annual catastro
percentage points to take into account anticipated higher than usual catastrophe losses in the
floods in Australia. The impact of each percentage point of catastrophe losses on 2011 ope
· A combined ratio between 91% and 93% for the year, based on combined ratios of 91% to
· A decline of 2% to 4% in property and casualty investment income after taxes.
· Approximately 291 million average diluted shares outstanding for the year.
The guidance and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company's forward-look
bb to achieve 2011 operating income per share in the range of $5.35 to
e 2011 combined ratio, compared to 5.7 points of impact in 2010. The assumed
rage annual catastrophe losses of 3 percentage points adjusted upward by 0.5
strophe losses in the first quarter of 2011 largely resulting from the January
losses on 2011 operating income per share is approximately $0.25.
ed ratios of 91% to 94% for CPI, 94% to 97% for CCI and 85% to 88% for CSI.
pany's forward-looking information safe-harbor statements (see below).

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Net Inc 112 223 809 1,548 1,826 2,528 2,807 1,804 2,183
Dil. EPS $0.63 $1.29 $4.46 $8.01 $8.94 $5.98 $7.01 $4.92 $6.18
Wt Avg Sha 175.80 172.90 181.30 193.20 204.20 422.40 400.30 366.80 353.00
Net Income vs EPS

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000 Net Inc Dil. EPS
500
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Wt Avg Shares (dil)

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2010 2011 2012
2,136 1,794 2,045
$6.76 $5.98 $6.82
305.00 280.50 255.50
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
il. EPS
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
2010 2011 2012
9 2010 2011 2012

CHUBB CORP
10-Q
11/05/2010
Balance Sheet
Sept. 30,
2010.00
(in millions)
Assets
Invested Assets
Short Term Investments $2,046
Fixed Maturities
Tax Exempt (cost $18,894 and $18,720) 20,248
Taxable (cost $16,071 and $16,470) 17,136
Equity Securities (cost $1,253 and $1,215) 1,404
Other Invested Assets 2,218
TOTAL INVESTED ASSETS 43,052
Cash 77
Accrued Investment Income 452
Premiums Receivable 1,974
Reinsurance Recoverable on Unpaid Losses 1,896
and Loss Expenses
Prepaid Reinsurance Premiums 319
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs 1,563
Deferred Income Tax
Goodwill 467
Other Assets 1,282
TOTAL ASSETS Wt Avg Shares diluted 175.8 $173
Liabilities
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses $22,755

Unearned Premiums 6,133
Long Term Debt 3,975
Deferred Income Tax 148
Dividend Payable to Shareholders 115
Accrued Expenses and Other Liabilities 1,977
TOTAL LIABILITIES 35,103
Contingent Liabilities (Note 7)
Shareholders Equity
Common Stock $1 Par Value; 371,980,460 372

Shares
Paid-In Surplus 191
Retained Earnings 17,435
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income 1,314
Treasury Stock, at Cost 67,047,923 and (3,333)
39,972,796 Shares
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 15,979
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY $51,082
____________________________
Created by Morningstar Document Research.
http://documentresearch.morningstar.com/
Dec. 31,
2009.00
$1,918
19,587
16,991
1,433
2,075
42,004
51
% of Rev 460 % of Rev
0.15 2,101 0.16
2,053
308
1,533
272
467
1,200
314.40
181.3 193.2 $204 422.4 400.3 366.8 353 317.3
$22,839
6,153
3,975
118
1,730
34,815
372
224
16,235
720
(1,917)
15,634
$50,449
Balance Sheet - Capital
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Excess Cash - - - - - - - - -
2%
S/T Investments 957 1,757 2,696 1,308 1,899 2,254 1,839 2,478 1,918
Cash 26 42 52 42 36 38 49 56 51
Premiums Receivable 1,693 2,041 2,188 2,336 2,319 2,314 2,227 2,201 2,101
Other Assets 1,332 1,768 1,406 3,307 1,429 1,514 1,366 1,271 1,200
Total C.A. 4,007 5,607 6,342 6,992 5,683 6,120 5,481 6,006 5,270
Unpaid Losses and

Loss Expenses 15,515 16,713 17,948 20,292 22,482 22,293 22,623 22,367 22,839
Other C.L. 5,859 8,583 9,077 11,028 10,705 11,655 10,046 8,655 8,001
Total C.L. 21,374 25,296 27,025 31,320 33,186 33,948 32,669 31,022 30,840
Working Cap (17,367) (19,689) (20,683) (24,328) (27,504) (27,828) (27,188) (25,016) (25,570)
Investments 16,827 19,256 23,926 29,851 32,735 35,439 38,242 36,260 40,086
Reinsurance
Recoverable* 4,505 4,072 3,427 3,483 3,769 2,594 2,307 2,212 2,053
Investment
Associated F.A. 1,698 2,420 1,823 1,170 3,095 3,232 1,687 435 460
Other F.A. 2,412 2,727 2,843 2,764 2,779 2,892 2,857 3,516 2,580
Total F.A. 25,442 28,474 32,019 37,268 42,378 44,157 45,093 42,423 45,179
Capital 8,075 8,785 11,336 12,940 14,874 16,329 17,905 17,407 19,609
S.T. Debt 199 - - - - - - - -

L.T. Debt 1,351 1,959 2,814 2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975 3,975
Other - - - - - - - - -
Total L.T. 1,351 1,959 2,814 2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975 3,975
Total Liab 1,550 1,959 2,814 2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975 3,975
Stk Equity 6,525 6,826 8,522 10,126 12,407 13,863 14,445 13,432 15,634
Capital 8,075 8,785 11,336 12,940 14,874 16,329 17,905 17,407 19,609
Source: Bloomberg, Mergent Online

*on Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses
b Corporation (CB)
ce Sheet - Capital
ons, except share data)
9/30/2010
- Excess Cash
2,046 S/T Investments

77 Cash
1,974 Premiums Receivable
1,282 Other Assets
5,379 Total C.A.
Unpaid Losses and

22,755 Loss Expenses
8,225 Other C.L.
30,980 Total C.L.
(25,601) Working Cap
40,167 Investments
Reinsurance
1,896 Recoverable*
Investment
452 Associated F.A.
2,349 Other F.A.
44,864 Total F.A.
19,263 Capital
(839) S.T. Debt

3,975 L.T. Debt
148 Other
4,123 Total L.T.
3,284 Total Liab
15,979 Stk Eqty
19,263 Capital
Balance Sheet - Indexed
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Excess Cash n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2%
S/T Investments 100.00 183.60 281.76 136.65 198.42 235.58 192.20 258.99 200.46
Cash 100.00 162.40 202.33 161.63 137.98 147.29 189.92 217.05 197.67
Premiums Receivable 100.00 120.55 129.25 138.02 137.00 136.70 131.56 130.02 124.11
Other Assets 100.00 132.75 105.59 248.34 107.34 113.71 102.59 95.46 90.12
Total C.A. 100.00 139.93 158.28 174.50 141.82 152.74 136.79 149.89 131.52
Unpaid Losses and L 100.00 107.72 115.68 130.79 144.90 143.69 145.81 144.16 147.21
Other 100.00 146.50 154.93 188.23 182.71 198.93 171.47 147.73 136.56
Total C.L. 100.00 118.35 126.44 146.54 155.27 158.83 152.85 145.14 144.29
Working Cap n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Investments 100.00 114.43 142.19 177.40 194.54 210.61 227.26 215.49 238.22
Reinsurance Recover 100.00 90.37 76.06 77.32 83.66 57.58 51.21 49.10 45.57
Investment Associate 100.00 142.51 107.34 68.93 182.29 190.34 99.35 25.62 27.09
Other F.A. 100.00 113.08 117.89 114.60 115.22 119.91 118.46 145.78 106.97
Total F.A. 100.00 111.92 125.85 146.48 166.57 173.56 177.24 166.74 177.58
Capital 100.00 108.79 140.38 160.24 184.20 202.21 221.73 215.56 242.83
S.T. Debt 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
L.T. Debt 100.00 145.01 208.28 208.27 182.63 182.53 256.11 294.23 294.23
Other n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Total L.T. 100.00 145.01 208.28 208.27 182.63 182.53 256.11 294.23 294.23
Total Liab 100.00 126.39 181.54 181.53 159.18 159.10 223.23 256.45 256.45
Stk Eqty 100.00 104.60 130.60 155.19 190.14 212.45 221.37 205.84 239.59
Capital 100.00 108.79 140.38 160.24 184.20 202.21 221.73 215.56 242.83
Source: Derived
rporation (CB)
et - Indexed
ept share data)
9/30/2010
n.a. Excess Cash
213.84 S/T Investments

298.45 Cash
116.61 Premiums Receivable
96.28 Other Assets
134.24 Total C.A.
146.67 Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses

140.39 Other
144.94 Total C.L.
n.a. Working Cap
238.70 Investments
42.08 Reinsurance Recoverable*
26.62 Investment Associated F.A.
97.40 Other F.A.
176.34 Total F.A.
238.54 Capital
-421.61 S.T. Debt
294.23 L.T. Debt

n.a. Other
305.18 Total L.T.
211.87 Total Liab
244.88 Stk Eqty
238.54 Capital
Balance Sheet - Common Size
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Excess Cash n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2%
S/T Investments 11.85 20.00 23.78 10.10 12.76 13.80 10.27 14.24 9.78
Cash 0.32 0.48 0.46 0.32 0.24 0.23 0.27 0.32 0.26
Premiums Receivable 20.96 23.23 19.30 18.06 15.59 14.17 12.44 12.64 10.71
Other Assets 16.49 20.12 12.40 25.55 9.61 9.27 7.63 7.30 6.12
Total C.A. 49.62 63.82 55.95 54.04 38.20 37.48 30.61 34.50 26.88
Unpaid Losses and L 192.13 190.25 158.33 156.81 151.14 136.52 126.35 128.49 116.47
Other 72.55 97.70 80.07 85.23 71.97 71.38 56.11 49.72 40.80
Total C.L. 264.68 287.95 238.40 242.04 223.11 207.90 182.46 178.22 157.27
Working Cap n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Investments 208.38 219.19 211.06 230.68 220.08 217.03 213.58 208.31 204.43
Reinsurance Recover 55.79 46.35 30.23 26.92 25.34 15.89 12.88 12.71 10.47
Investment Associate 21.03 27.55 16.08 9.04 20.81 19.79 9.42 2.50 2.35
Other F.A. 29.87 31.04 25.08 21.36 18.68 17.71 15.96 20.20 13.16
Total F.A. 315.06 324.13 282.45 288.00 284.91 270.42 251.85 243.71 230.40
Capital 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
S.T. Debt 2.46 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
L.T. Debt 16.73 22.30 24.82 21.74 16.59 15.10 19.32 22.84 20.27
Other n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Total L.T. 16.73 22.30 24.82 21.74 16.59 15.10 19.32 22.84 20.27
Total Liab 19.19 22.30 24.82 21.74 16.59 15.10 19.32 22.84 20.27
Stk Eqty 80.81 77.70 75.18 78.26 83.41 84.90 80.68 77.16 79.73
Capital 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Source: Derived
rporation (CB)
Common Size
ept share data)
9/30/2010
n.a. Excess Cash
2%
10.62 S/T Investments
0.40 Cash
10.25 Premiums Receivable
6.66 Other Assets
27.92 Total C.A.
118.13 Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses

42.70 Other
160.83 Total C.L.
n.a. Working Cap
208.52 Investments
9.84 Reinsurance Recoverable*
2.35 Investment Associated F.A.
12.19 Other F.A.
232.90 Total F.A.
100.00 Capital
n.a. S.T. Debt
20.64 L.T. Debt

0.77 Other
21.40 Total L.T.
17.05 Total Liab
82.95 Stk Eqty
100.00 Capital
Income Statement - Indexed
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Operating Rev* 100 119 148 170 179 180 180 178
COGS** 100 114 132 143 151 133 132 141
Gross profit 100 184 374 548 579 836 851 700
SG&A 100 113 170 151 183 209 161 169
R&D n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Other Op Costs 100 123 146 130 106 114 92 91
Op Inc (2002 base) n.a. 100 767 1,671 1,864 2,963 3,219 2,509
Int*** n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Non-op Inc (Loss) 100 50 74 190 334 213 326 -323
Tax Inc (2002 base) n.a. 100 554 1,228 1,453 2,093 2,338 1,429
Taxes (2003 base) n.a. n.a. 100 417 498 799 905 483
Net Inc 100 200 725 1,389 1,638 2,267 2,517 1,618
EPS 100 202 697 1,259 1,423 946 1,101 772

Dil. EPS 100 203 703 1,264 1,410 944 1,106 775
Div. PS 100 103 106 115 126 74 85 97
Source: Derived

investment income
Corporation (CB)
ement - Indexed
except share data)
2009 /E 9/30/2010
170 176 Operating Rev*
130 140 COGS**
726 669 Gross profit
168 167 SG&A
n.a. n.a. R&D
86 87 Other Op Costs
2,655 2,391 Op Inc (2002 base)
n.a. n.a. Int***
20 324 Non-op Inc (Loss)
1,759 1,793 Tax Inc (2002 base)
624 678 Taxes (2003 base)
1,958 1,949 Net Inc
963 1,029 EPS

975 1,065 Dil. EPS
103 109 Div. PS
Income Statement - Common Size
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Operating Rev* 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Investment Income 13 11 10 10 10 11 13 13
COGS** 93 90 83 78 78 69 68 74
Gross profit 7 10 17 22 22 31 32 26
SG&A 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3
R&D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Op Costs 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 3
Op Inc (2002 base) -2 1 8 14 15 24 26 20
Int*** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non-op Inc (Loss) 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 -3
Tax Inc (2002 base) -1 2 8 16 18 26 29 18
Taxes (2003 base) -2 -1 1 4 5 7 8 4
Net Inc 1 2 7 12 13 18 20 13
EPS $0.01 $0.01 $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.04 $0.05 $0.04

Dil. EPS $0.01 $0.01 $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.04 $0.05 $0.04
Div. PS n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Source: Derived

investment income
b Corporation (CB)
tement - Common Size
ions, except share data)
2009 Y/E 9/30/2010

100 100 Net Revenue
13 13
71 75 COS
29 25 Gross profit
3 3 SG&A
0 0 R&D
3 3 Other Op Costs
23 20 Op Inc
0 0 Int
0 3 Non-op Inc
23 23 Tax Inc
6 6 Taxes
17 16 Net Inc
$0.05 $0.05 EPS

$0.05 $0.05 Dil. EPS
n.a. n.a. DPS
DuPont Analysis
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ROE 1.71 3.27 9.49 15.29 14.72 18.24 19.43 13.43 13.96 13.60
Lev 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.28 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.25 1.21
ROC 1.38 2.54 7.13 11.97 12.28 15.48 15.68 10.36 11.13 11.28
NPM 1.46 2.45 7.15 11.95 13.33 18.37 20.44 13.27 16.80 16.20
Capital T/O 0.95 1.03 1.00 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.78 0.66 0.70
Source: Derived
Notes:
ROE = Net Income / Stk Equity
= Profit Margin x Capital Turnover x Financial Leverage
= NPM x Capital T/O x Lev
bb Corporation (CB)
Ratios
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Liquidity
Current 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.18 0.17
Acid Test 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.11
Activity
Av Coll Prd (days) 80.88 82.01 70.61 65.81 61.79 61.39 59.19
Inv T/O (# times) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Av Pmt Prd (days) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
F.A.T.O. (# times) 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.32 0.31 0.30
Capital T/O (# times) 0.946 1.034 0.998 1.001 0.921 0.843 0.767
Capital T/O (w/o
Goodwill and Intag.) 1.004 1.092 1.041 1.039 0.951 0.867 0.788
Solvency
Debt Ratio 0.78 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71
Leverage 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.28 1.20 1.18 1.24
X Int Earnd* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Profitability
OROA -2.24 1.26 7.49 14.30 13.87 20.09 19.90
ROC 1.38 2.54 7.13 11.97 12.28 15.48 15.68
ROE 1.71 3.27 9.49 15.29 14.72 18.24 19.43
NPM 1.46 2.45 7.15 11.95 13.33 18.37 20.44
GPM 6.68 10.35 16.86 21.57 21.57 31.00 31.62
Loss Ratio 80.80 75.40 67.60 63.10 64.30 55.20 52.80

Expense Ratio 32.60 31.30 30.40 29.20 28.00 29.00 30.10
Combined Ratio 113.40 106.70 98.00 92.30 92.30 84.20 82.90
Source: Derived
*Interest Expense n.a, negligible - for example ------------------> 135 134 206
B)
Traveler's Companies Comp Ratios
2008 2009 2010
0.19 0.17 0.18

0.11 0.11 0.11
Asset Management 09/30/2010
59.11 59.02 53.72 Total Asset Turnover 0.24

n.a. n.a. n.a. Cash & Equivalents Turnover 91.19
n.a. n.a. n.a.
0.32 0.29 0.30
0.781 0.663 0.70
0.802 0.679 0.71

Debt Management 09/30/2010
0.72 0.69 0.68 Total Debt to Equity 0.23

1.30 1.25 1.21
n.a. n.a. n.a.
Profitability Ratios 09/30/2010
15.96 14.99 13.74 ROA % (Net) 3.71

10.36 11.13 11.28 Operating ROE % (Net) 12.5
13.43 13.96 13.60 Loss Ratio % 59.26
13.27 16.80 16.20
26.27 28.51 25.48
Insurance Ratios CYE 2010
58.50 55.40 57.95

30.20 30.60 31.24
88.70 86.00 89.19 Combined Ratio 95
Source: Traveler's Conference Call (http://investor.travelers.com), Mergent Online
240 248
Traveler's Companies Comp Ratios
Profitability Ratios 09/30/2010
ROA % (Net) 3.71
ROE % (Net) 14.88
Loss Ratio % 59.26
Calculated Tax Rate % 26.7
Debt Management 09/30/2010

Total Debt to Equity 0.23
Asset Management 09/30/2010

Total Asset Turnover 0.24
Cash & Equivalents Turnover 91.19
Per Share 09/30/2010

Cash Flow per Share 11.42
Book Value per Share 59.27
Ticker CB US Equity
Currency USD
Name CHUBB CORP
Start Date 1/1/2000
End Date 1/25/2011
Periodicity Calendar Annually
Display Order Chronological
Data Type As Reported Data
Reported Status Most Recent
Consolidation Level Default
Date: CY1 2000

Status: Original
Cash Flow
Cash From Operating Activities
Change in Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs -62.3
NET INCOME 714.6
Increase in Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net
Decrease in Unearned Premiums, Net 187.3
Label -175.1
Decrease in Reinsurance Recoverable on Paid Losses
Amortization of Premiums and Discounts on Fixed Maturities
Depreciation 84.4
Total Realized Investment Gains (Losses), Net -51.5
Other, Net -10.3
NET CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES 964.3
Increase in Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net

Deferred Income Tax -25.3
Decrease in Liability Related to Principal andInterest Guarantee
Increase in Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net 302.5
Cash From Investing Activities
Proceeds from Sale of Interest in Associated Aviation Underwriters, I 55
Proceeds from Fixed Maturities - Sales 2180.8
Proceeds from Fixed Maturities - Maturities, Calls and Redemptions 741.6
Proceeds from Sales of Equity Securities 453.5
Purchases of Fixed Maturities -3463.3
Purchases of Equity Securities -579.4
Other, Net Wt Avg Shares diluted
Purchase of Investment in Partially Owned Company
Other Investing Activities
Other Investing Activities
Increase (Decrease) in Net Payable from Security Transactions not Set
Other, Net
Investments in Other Invested Assets, Net
Decrease (Increase) in Short Term Investments, Net
Purchases of Property and Equipment, Net -138.7
Decrease (Increase) in Short Term Investments, Net 125.5
NET CASH USED IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES -623.5
Cash from Financing Activities

Repurchase of Shares -242.3
Increase (Decrease) in Short Term Debt, Net
Increase (Decrease) in Policyholders Account
Proceeds from Issuance of Long Term Debt
Repayment of Long Term Debt -5.4
Other, Net 16.3
Other Financing Activities
Decrease in Funds Held Under Deposit Contracts
Other, Net
Decrease in Funds Held under Deposit Contracts
Proceeds from Issuance of Common Stock Under Incentive and Purchase P 119.3
Proceeds from Issuance of Common Stock UnderIncentive and Purchase Pl
Proceeds from Common Stock Offering
Issuance of Common Stock
Proceeds from Common Stock Issued Upon Settlement of Equity Unit Warr
Proceeds from Common Stock Issued Upon Settlement of Equity Unit Purc
Proceeds from Issuance of Common Stock Under Stock-Based Employee Com
Proceeds from Issuance of Common Stock Under Stock-Based Employee Com
Repurchase of Shares
Dividends Paid to Shareholders -229
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash -0.3
Stock-Based Employee Compensation Plans
NET CASH USED IN FINANCING ACTIVITIES -341.1
Reference Items
Cash Paid for Interest 52.7
Federal and foreign income taxes paid 159.7
#NAME?
CY1 2001 CY1 2002 CY1 2003 CY1 2004 CY1 2005 CY1 2006 CY1 2007 CY1 2008 CY1 2009
Restated Restated Original Original Original Original Original Original Original
-86.8 -212.5 -168.3 -76.6 -16.7 -19

111.5 222.9 808.8 1548.4 1825.9 2528 2807 1804 2183000000
262000000
305.1 962 885.4 417.2 106.6 16 -74 -46 -254000000
-283 -347.8 -147.4 -148.4 17.2 5 100000000
-225 258 148 6000000
216.8 233 233 206 186000000
95.1 103.1 108 105.6 90.8 81 69 64 69000000
-0.8 -33.9 -84.4 -218.2 -383.5 -245 -374 371 -23000000
#NAME? 16.7 179 88.1 97.2 -126 -345 -392 -94000000
1019.2 2215.7 3363.8 4088.6 3755.5 3342 3191 2544 2435000000
2287.5 1903.8 986

-189.9 -126.7 -96.9 85 83.8 108
-186.4
958.4 1631.9 1879.6 617 389
4581.5 4559.9 6165.3 3920.3 7481.7 3623 4616 4145 3029000000

1246.2 2086.9 2105.5 2048.1 1683.4 1579 1790 2173 2578000000
458.1 387.3 501 779.7 697.5 186 360 432 394000000
-6307.2 -8205.8 -12139.5 -11465.2 -12206.6 -6758 -7909 -7125 -7390000000
-374.6 -467.7 -824 -860.4 -862.1 -377 -650 -191 -37000000 314.40
175.8 172.9 181.3 193.2 204.2 422.4 400.3 366.8 353 317.3
-276.5
126.6 50
-1.1
-110.6
-106 -18
12 3
-37000000
-351.2 -799.9 -939.2 -591 -355 -654 563000000
-264 -164 -45 72000000
-185.2 -141.9 -74.3 -64.7 -40.5 -53 -53 -46 -52000000
1388.4 455
-1164.9 -2527 -5233.1 -4128.3 -3850.8 -2369 -1649 -1326 -874000000
-555.6 -99.4
199 -199
-8.5 168.6 347.2 44.2 -276.5 -29
600 600 960 1800 1200 0
-2.8 -7.9 -100.4 -0.4 -300.7 -800 -685 0
5 -3.3 -6.7 -28 0
17.9
-8
-17
-53000000
146.8 106 43.8

886.8
258.4
600
460
130 109
34000000
-134.9 -1228 -2185 -1336 -1060000000
-234.8 -237.6 -251.1 -290.9 -330.1 -403 -451 -471 -487000000
3.4 16.1 10.3 -10.5 -6.1 2 11 7 -5000000
531.4 229
149.1 327.4 1879.6 29.2 89.2 -971 -1531 -1211 -1566000000
55.5 85 122.2 135.6 137.9 129 191 232 244

53.4 38.5 133.9 377.7 409.4 847 1140 739 720
Chubb Corporation
Historical Year Ending December 31, Projected Year Ending December 31, 2011 - 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR
Profitability Ratios
Sales $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5 2.2%
% growth (4.2%) (1.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Gross profit $3,539.0 $3,691.0 $3,029.0 $3,033.7 $3,185.3 $3,249.0 $3,314.0 $3,380.3 2.2%
% margin 29.9% 32.6% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
EBITDA $2,647.0 $3,210.0 $3,228.0 $2,697.2 $2,832.1 $2,888.7 $2,946.5 $3,005.4 (1.4%)
% margin 22.4% 28.3% 28.8% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
% growth 21.3% 0.6% (16.4%) 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EBIT $2,578.0 $3,146.0 $3,159.0 $2,697.2 $2,832.1 $2,888.7 $2,946.5 $3,005.4 (1.0%)
% margin 21.8% 27.8% 28.2% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
% growth 22.0% 0.4% (14.6%) 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Net income $1,735.0 $2,119.0 $2,173.0 $1,608.6 $1,705.7 $1,778.9 $1,820.5 $1,862.9 (3.0%)
% margin 14.7% 18.7% 19.4% 14.3% 14.5% 14.8% 14.9% 14.9%
% growth 22.1% 2.5% (26.0%) 6.0% 4.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Interest Coverage
EBIT / Interest expense 10.7x 12.7x 12.9x 5.8x 6.1x 6.9x 7.0x 7.2x
EBITDA / Interest expense 11.0x 12.9x 13.2x 5.8x 6.1x 6.9x 7.0x 7.2x
EBITDA - Capital expenditures / Interest expense 11.0x 28.7x 16.0x 4.2x 4.9x 8.5x 8.7x 8.8x
Capitalization*
Total debt $3,975.0 $3,975.0 $3,975.0 $3,575.0 $3,575.0 $3,300.0 $3,300.0 $3,300.0
Total stockholders' equity 13,432.0 15,634.0 15,979.0 15,623.1 15,925.4 17,170.7 18,445.0 19,749.1
Total capitalization 17,407.0 19,609.0 19,954.0 19,198.1 19,500.4 20,470.7 21,745.0 23,049.1
Return on Invested Capital 11.3% 12.1% 12.1% 10.8% 11.1% 10.7% 10.3% 9.9%
*all recorded at book value
Leverage*
Total debt / Total capitalization 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x
Total debt / EBITDA 1.5x 1.2x 1.2x 1.3x 1.3x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x
*all recorded at book value
Liquidity
Working capital ($25,016.0) ($25,570.0) ($24,762.0) ($25,244.0) ($25,244.0) ($25,519.0) ($25,519.0) ($25,519.0)
Current ratio 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x
Quick ratio 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x
Activity
Accounts receivable (collection period) 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Inventories (days outstanding) 116.5 122.3 110.9 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0
Accounts payable (days outstanding) 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Net fixed asset turnover 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x
Asset turnover 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x
DuPont Analysis
Return on sales 14.7% 18.7% 19.4% 14.3% 14.5% 14.8% 14.9% 14.9%
Asset turnover 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x
Asset leverage 3.6x 3.2x 3.1x 3.2x 3.2x 3.1x 3.0x 2.9x
Return on equity 12.9% 13.6% 13.6% 10.3% 10.7% 10.4% 9.9% 9.4%
Chubb Corporation Parity Checking
Select the first year out of parity Balance Sheet Cash Flow Reconciliations for FYE 2010
2010 #NAME? 2009 2010 Difference 2010 Check
Investments
S/T Investments 1,918.000 2,046.000 128.000 #N/A #N/A Balance Sheet Cash Flow
Cash 51.000 77.000 (26.000) Beginning Bal. Ending Bal. Difference Depr. CapEx Total
Premiums Receivable 2,101.000 1,974.000 127.000 40,086.000 40,167.000 (81.000) #N/A #N/A #N/A
Other Assets 1,200.000 1,282.000 (82.000)
Total non-cash current assets ---> 19.000 Reinsurance Recoverable*
Balance Sheet Cash Flow
Investments 40,086.000 40,167.000 (81.000) #N/A #N/A Beginning Bal. Ending Bal. Difference Amortz Additions Total
Reinsurance Recoverable* 2,053.000 1,896.000 157.000 #N/A #N/A 2,053.000 1,896.000 157.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Investment Associated F.A. 460.000 452.000 8.000 #N/A #N/A
Other F.A. 2,580.000 2,349.000 231.000 #N/A #N/A Long-term debt
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #N/A #NAME? Balance Sheet Cash Flow
Beginning Bal. Ending Bal. Difference Issuance Payment Total
3,975.000 3,975.000 0.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Unpaid Losses and Loss Expenses 22,839.000 22,755.000 (84.000)
Unearned Premiums 6,153.000 6,133.000 (20.000) Total equity
Other current liabilities 1,848.000 1,253.000 (595.000) Balance Sheet Cash Flow
Beginning Bal. Ending Bal. Difference NI Dividends StockComp Buyback Options Total
Working Capital Total non-cash current assets ---> 19.000 $15,634.000 15,979.000 $345.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Total non-debt current liabilities ---> (699.000)
(Increase) / decrease in working capital ---> (680.000) #NAME? #NAME?
Revolver 0.000 0.000 0.000 #N/A #N/A

Long-term debt 3,975.000 3,975.000 0.000 #N/A #N/A
Other long-term liabilities (used as plug) 0.000 148.000 148.000 #N/A #N/A
Total equity 15,634.000 15,979.000 345.000 #N/A #N/A
Parity Check #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #N/A
#NAME?
#NAME?
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis for Chubb Corporation
Historical Year Ending December 31, Projected Year Ending December 31, 2010-2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR
Sales $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5 2.2%
EBITDA 2,647.0 3,210.0 3,228.0 2,697.2 2,832.1 2,888.7 2,946.5 3,005.4 (1.4%)
Less: Depreciation (69.0) (64.0) (69.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Less: Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBIT 2,578.0 3,146.0 3,159.0 2,697.2 2,832.1 2,888.7 2,946.5 3,005.4 (1.0%)
Less: Taxes @ 36.7% (946.1) (1,154.6) (1,159.4) (989.9) (1,039.4) (1,060.2) (1,081.4) (1,103.0)
Tax-effected EBIT 1,631.9 1,991.4 1,999.6 1,707.3 1,792.7 1,828.5 1,865.1 1,902.4
Plus: Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Plus: Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Less: Capital expenditures (771.2) (543.6) 658.2 675.6 693.3
Less: Additions to definite life intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ / - Changes in working capital 771.2 543.6 (658.2) (675.6) (693.3)
+ / - Changes in other assets and liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $1,707.3 $1,792.7 $1,828.5 $1,865.1 $1,902.4
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Growth Rate 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Perpetuity Growth Method EBITDA Multiple Method
Weighted average cost of capital: 8.0% Weighted average cost of capital: 8.0%
Net present value of free cash flow (b) $7,235.0 Net present value of free cash flow (b) $7,235.0
Growth rate of FCF after 2015 2.5% Exit multiple 9.5x

Terminal value $35,454.2 Terminal value $28,551.3
Present value of the terminal value (c) 24,129.5 Present value of the terminal value (c) 19,431.6
Enterprise Value $31,364.6 Enterprise Value $26,666.6

LESS: Net Debt (d) (e) (2,573.0) LESS: Net Debt (d) (e) (2,573.0)
Equity Value $28,791.6 Equity Value $24,093.6
Diluted shares: 348.974 Diluted shares: 348.974
Equity Value Per Share (f) $82.50 Equity Value Per Share (e) $69.04
Trading at $35.50 as of December 1, 2009

Consensus price target of $36.00 as of December 1, 2009
a) Projections based on internal estimates.

b) Present values calculated as of 12/1/09.
c) Discounted 5 years; based on 2015 unlevered free cash flow of $1,902.4 million.
d) Balances as of 12/1/09 as a training simplification. Theoretically, the balances should be as of the PV date. Many practitioners use the latest available balances as an estimate.
e) "Net debt" includes total debt & minority interest less cash & cash equivalents.
f) Based on 348.974 million diluted shares outstanding as of 12/31/10. Theoretically, the shares should be as of the PV date to match the timing of the balance sheet items.
Many practitioners use the latest available diluted shares as an estimate.
DCF Sensitivity Analysis
Equity Value Per Share (Perpetuity Growth Method)

Weighted average cost of capital
$82.50 7.00% 7.25% 7.50% 7.75% 8.00% 8.25% 8.50% 8.75% 9.00%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
Terminal 2.5%
growth 2.7%
rate 2.9%
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
0.20%
Equity Value Per Share (EBITDA Multiple Method Growth Method)
Weighted average cost of capital

$69.04 7.00% 7.25% 7.50% 7.75% 8.00% 8.25% 8.50% 8.75% 9.00%
6.0x
6.5x
7.0x
7.5x
8.0x
EBITDA 8.5x
exit 9.0x
multiple 9.5x
10.0x
10.5x
11.0x
11.5x
12.0x
12.5x

Multiples Analysis

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Multiples Analysis

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Company Name Chubb Corporation ç cell F3 is named "name"

Sub-header Dollars in millions, except per share ç cell F5 is named "subheader"

Last Fiscal Year End 12/31/2010 ç cell is named "FYE"

Final Inputs 2011 Step

2001 2002 2003

Lev 1.24 1.29 1.33

NPM 1.46 2.45 7.15

Multiple/Valuation Method Multiple Estimated Value Weight Contribution

Final Intrinsic Value 50.15

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1.28 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.25 1.21 1.36

11.95 13.33 18.37 20.44 13.27 16.80 16.20 12.36

3-Jan-11 1,257.62 1,302.67 1,257.62 1,286.12 4,816,605,000 1,286.12

3-Jan-11 1,257.62 1,302.67 1,257.62 1,286.12 4,816,605,000 1,286.12

Sector CB TRV ALL PGR

NOPLAT 2,072 2,169 2,197 2,239 2,281

Free Cash Flow

Discount factor 1.00 0.93 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.74

PV of Explicit CFs 9,089

Equity Value 12,416

Shares Outstanding (mil) 297.30

Intrinsic Value 41.76

Terminal Growth Rate and WACC Sensitivity Table

Terminal Growth Rate

Total Inves (27,494) (27,488) (26,808)

2008 2009 2010

S/T Invest $2,478.0 $1,918.0 $2,046.0

Depreciation 69.0 64.0 69.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS $0.65 $1.31 $4.51 $8.15 $9.21 $6.13 $7.13 $5.00

Other Revenues 8.8 67.3 115.1 220 49

11828 11331 11,215

6898 6268 6,499

2407 2962 2,915

603 779 742.00

Date: CQ1 2009 CQ2 2009 CQ3 2009

Investments 36,260.0 40,086.0 40,167.0 39,811.1 40,113.4 41,358.7 42,633.0 43,937.1

Revolver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: CY1 2001 CY1 2002 CY1 2003

1,308 1,899 2,254 1,839 2,478

1,841 2,212 1,957 2,320 1,479

44,260 48,061 50,277 50,574 48,429

20,292 22,482 22,293 22,623 22,367

2,814 2,467 2,466 3,460 3,975

196 210 411 375 372

982 262 652 4,903 4,608

1,995 1,887 1,401 12,261 14,066

561 611 639 339 328

27,692 31,831 33,871

2,853 3,141 2,907 2,850 2,447

(534) (623) 591 442 1,144

338 216 142

Projected Year Ending December 31,

Net Change in Cash 15.3 (241.2) 1,628.4 1,949.9 1,997.4

Working Capital Balances

Ratios and Assumptions

Sales $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5

Beginning Investments $40,167.0 $39,811.1 $40,113.4 $41,358.7 $42,633.0

Sales $11,828.0 $11,331.0 $11,215.0 $11,215.0 $11,775.8 $12,011.3 $12,251.5 $12,496.5

Beginning definite life intangibles $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0 $1,896.0

Share repurchase assumptions

New shares from exercised options

Beginning balance - basic (actual) 304.000 274.000 259.000 259.000 259.000

Revolver Average Balance $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0