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Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

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Energy Strategy Reviews


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Achieving energy sustainability by using solar PV: System modelling and


comprehensive techno-economic-environmental analysis
Aamir Mehmood a, **, Jingzheng Ren a, *, Long Zhang b
a
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
b
School of Business, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang, 464000, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The integration of renewable energy into existing energy infrastructure plays a significant role for promoting
Solar photovoltaic sustainable development, but it lacks the certain facets of comprehensive feasibility analysis regarding technical,
Decision tree economic, and environmental aspects. This study focuses on integrating solar photovoltaic (PV) energy into the
Synergies and trade-offs
residential sector using a decision tree and design parameters (DPs) optimisation to assess sustainability and
Information gain ratio
Impact and competitiveness
meet the electrification requirements of water, energy, and food elements in the residential sector. In this study,
Energy sustainability we first quantify the synergies and trade-offs between DPs using a statistical method, and identify influential DPs
for solar PV integration using the information gain ratio method. Then, we evaluate the impact of solar PV
systems on energy sustainability by considering optimised DPs and energy-economic-environmental decision
indicators. Finally, the competitiveness of various solar PV integrated energy systems is analysed using energy,
economic, and environmental indicators. The findings suggest that combining solar PV systems with grid power
has a greater impact, whereas combining them with battery energy storage systems is more competitive. This
study provides valuable insights for decision-making organisations to encourage renewable solar integration in
the residential sector, resulting in energy sustainability.

1. Introduction integrated energy systems.


In fact, achieving energy sustainability requires clean and affordable
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proposed by the United energy for inhabitants. A significant amount of energy is demanded by
Nations aim to create a peaceful and prosperous planet for its in­ the residential sector to meet the electrification requirements of the
habitants by 2030. These goals are multidimensional and interdepen­ water, energy, and food supply of households. Meeting the electricity
dent with each other, and abundant water and food supply, sustainable demands in the residential sector directly supports three SDGs: clean
energy consumption, and climate change mitigation are thought to be water and sanitation (SDG 6), affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), zero
the critical pillars for better sustainability [1]. For instance, the food hunger (SDG 2), and indirectly supports the other SDGs [5]. However,
sector accounts for 70% of global water withdrawal, 30% of global en­ the residential sector is responsible for approximately 22% of final en­
ergy consumption, and 21–37% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emis­ ergy consumption [6], and the energy demand is expected to become
sions [2]. Changes in the availability of water can have a substantial threefold by 2050 owing to increasing population and improving living
impact on the agricultural sector. Energy is necessary for the production, standards [7]. A substantial percentage of this consumption is supplied
distribution, and processing of food, as well as the extraction of through fossil fuels whose combustion is polluting the environment
groundwater. Additionally, energy is required for electrification in order extensively [8]. Moreover, millions of people still lack access to safe
to make the lives of inhabitants more comfortable. These three sectors drinking water, sanitation services, and a balanced diet [9,10], while
have a substantial impact on climate change, which in turn affects the hundreds of millions lack access to electricity and use inefficient and
water, energy, and food sectors [1,2]. However, energy is deemed as a polluting cooking methods [9]. Insight into the existing lack of essential
crucial link connecting all SDGs [3,4]. Therefore, an integrated needs, rising demand of the growing population, and fear of climate
approach is the most effective way to investigating the sustainability of change, there is a need to find substitute energy solutions that can aid in

* Corresponding author.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: aamir.mehmood@connect.polyu.hk (A. Mehmood), jzhren@polyu.edu.hk (J. Ren).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101126
Received 4 October 2022; Received in revised form 29 April 2023; Accepted 3 July 2023
Available online 10 July 2023
2211-467X/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
A. Mehmood et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

achieving sustainable energy transition. competitively do 3E indicators support solar PV integration into the
Solar photovoltaic (PV) has been recognized as an important residential sector to meet the electricity needs in the residential
contributor towards achieving energy sustainability [7,11–14] owing to sector?
its characteristics of being less location specific compared to other re­
newables, such as wind, geothermal, tidal, and hydel, and having The remainder of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 de­
strengthening nature in terms of economic and socio-cultural aspects scribes the developed multi-tier system modelling and performance
[12]. Numerous studies have been conducted by researchers over the assessment framework; Section 3 highlights the case study regions, their
past few decades to efficiently integrate solar energy into existing climatic information, and optimal slope angles; Section 4 demonstrates
infrastructure [14–17]. Different techniques have been adopted to the results that are discussed; Section 5 provides recommendations; and
enhance the performance of the solar PV system, such as Perturb and Section 6 outlines the conclusion.
Observe technique [18], system-level modifications incorporating wind
tunnel scaled solar farm [19], the magic square method to disperse the 2. Methodology
shading effect [20], and manual and natural cleaning of PV modules
[21]. Studies have also been conducted to assess the net zero energy A multi-tiered approach combining multiple methods was adopted to
building potential through grid-connected (GC) building integrated PV determine the feasibility of successfully integrating clean solar PV into a
system in India [22], and the economic feasibility of solar PV system residential energy infrastructure that meets the electrification re­
combined with reused electric vehicle batteries for the residential sector quirements in the residential sector. The process began by estimating
in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam [23]. Researchers have electricity needs for abundant, affordable, and sustainable supply of
analysed the electrical, thermal, and combined performance of building water, food, and energy in the residential unit (Section 2.1). Then, a
integrated PV Trombe wall and building integrated PV south façade solar PV system for the residential unit was modelled using RETScreen
systems, and concluded that the combined performance of Trombe wall tool, which integrates various DPs, such as optimal monthly energy
system was higher than south façade system [7]. The demand (OMED), optimum slope angle (OSA), energy efficiency mea­
techno-economic-environmental feasibility of solar PV system for sures (EFMs), and PV module types (Section 2.2). A decision tree
United Arab Emirates has been assessed, and researchers have comprising six DPs was then constructed to conceptualise the DSs, which
concluded that GC configuration is more viable than off-grid (OG) [17]. were modelled in RETScreen tool (Section 2.4). To evaluate the inter-
In addition, a plenty of review articles have been published in association of DPs and assess the impact and competitiveness of solar
literature focusing on various aspects of solar PV system, such as stan­ PV systems targeting energy sustainability, a case study was undertaken
dards and guidelines for GC solar PV systems [24], technical specifica­ in nine metropolitan cities throughout Pakistan, which account for more
tions of GC solar PV systems [25], technical issues regarding solar PV than 20% of the country’s population [30].
deployment [26], techno-economic feasibility of GC solar PV systems Once the PV energy system modelling was completed, we collated
[27], development strategies and barriers to solar PV deployment from the quantitative outcomes and analysed the datasets from various per­
sustainability perspective [28], grid synchronization and operation spectives using different techniques to achieve the objectives. First, we
control methods of small scale solar PV systems [29], optimal planning quantified monotonic correlation between DPs of the PV energy project
of integrating solar PV systems combined with battery storage in the in a statistical sense, which captured the synergies and trade-offs be­
residential sector having grid connectivity [14], performance of inte­ tween them. Second, we investigated the influential DPs of the PV en­
grating solar PV modules combined with heat pumps into buildings ergy project for energy sustainability using the information gain ratio
aiming decarbonization [8], amongst others. Apparently, extensively (IGR) method. Then, we evaluated the impact of the PV energy projects
published literature indicate that researchers have paid great efforts on by quantifying the optimised DP (OMED) and 3E DIs, and assessed the
the investigation of feasibility or performance of solar PV systems. competitiveness in terms of 3E DIs. Finally, the study concluded with a
However, they have given less thought to assessing the feasibility of discussion of its findings and recommendations for integrating solar
different configurations of solar PV system from the perspective of energy to attain energy sustainability in the residential sector. The in­
meeting the electricity needs for abundant, affordable, and sustainable formation flow of the methodology adopted in this study is shown in
supply of drinking water, food diet and energy products and service in Fig. 1.
the residential sector using scenario analysis-based approaches.
Furthermore, there is a lack of investigating on design parameters (DPs) 2.1. Electrical energy load characteristics for residential unit
of solar PV systems that influence their integration into existing energy
infrastructure. Therefore, it is vital to examine the deployment of solar To estimate the electricity needs in a residential unit, we conducted a
PV systems for achieving energy sustainability in the residential sector, literature survey [17] and stakeholder discussions to calculate the
particularly in developing countries, where the economic situation of electrification requirements for abundant, affordable, and sustainable
stakeholders is more sustainable for planning sustainable energy tran­ supply of water, food, and energy. In the first step of the process, the
sition actions than unstable governments like Pakistan. electric appliances were categorized into two groups: the main appli­
The purpose of this study is to address the highlighted gaps in ances, which are used daily and for an extended period of time, and the
achieving energy sustainability and facilitate decision-making for sus­ miscellaneous appliances, which are not used daily or for an extended
tainable energy transition in the residential sector. This study evaluates period of time. Then, we identified daily power consumption activities
various strategic decision scenarios for a solar PV energy system that in which EFMs could reduce load demand, such as replacing conven­
meets the electrification requirements in the residential unit. Specif­ tional air-conditioning technology with new DC-inverter technology,
ically, it seeks to address the following questions. utilising LED lights instead of tube lights or fluorescent bulbs, and
consuming water in accordance with the World Health Organization and
• Considering various decision strategies (DSs) (combinations of American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engi­
design parameters (DPs)) for integrating solar PV into the residential neers standards. These EFMs resulted in approximately 35% reduction in
energy infrastructure, which options are significant, and how does energy demand. The electrical energy (EE) load characteristics for the
the feasibility differ among latitudes? baseline and proposed cases to fulfil the electrification requirements in
• How do solar PV system DPs correlate with each other, and what are the residential unit are listed in Table 1.
the most influential DPs for energy sustainability? We included multiple appliances in the miscellaneous group that
• How do optimised DPs and energy-economic-environmental (3E) could be used by regulating the utilisation of the primary appliances and
decision indicators (DIs) impact energy sustainability, and how peak load. The appliances included an air cooler (160 W (W)), a washing

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Fig. 1. The multi-tiered methodology framework for this study.

Table 1
Descriptions of main group appliances required to fulfil average electrification requirements in the residential unit.
Appliance Number of Intermittent resource-load Baseline case load Use per day load reduction_ Proposed Usage time reduction_
description appliances correlation (watt) (hours) case (%) Proposed case (%)

Lights 8 zero 320 10 25


Fans 3 zero 300 13
Television 1 zero 117 06
Air-conditioner 2 zero 3256 12 47
Refrigerator 1 zero 250 24
Computer 1 negative 250 2
Water pump 1 zero 1900 1 28
Water dispenser 1 zero 130 1 19
Baseline case Proposed case
Electric energy load–Daily–AC (kWh) 55.4 35.7

machine (500 W), a clothes dryer machine (3000 W), an electric oven demand, and the tracking mode parameter was set to a fixed angle value.
(2000 W), an electric kettle (2000 W), an electric stove (1000 W), an In order to optimise the modelled PV energy system, the OMED was
electric iron (1000 W), and a hair dryer (1000 W). estimated by considering the cooling and heating load requirements.
The OMED was calculated by following the procedural steps described in
Section 2.3. The slope angle of PV module parameter was set to either
2.2. Solar PV energy system the latitude angle or OSA (Section 3.2). The PV module type was selected
based on the efficiency, frame area, and capacity values shown in
To achieve sustainability in the energy aspect of the residential Table 2. EFMs were primarily used by considering cooling appliances,
sector, a solar PV energy system was modelled in the RETScreen soft­ which resulted in approximately 47% decrease in cooling load demand
ware tool, a validated software package developed by Natural Resources by replacing conventional air-conditioning units with DC-inverter
Canada [17,31], using DPs, as indicated in part 2 in Fig. 1. After esti­ technology. Finally, the cost parameters were defined through market
mating the energy load characteristics of the residential unit, the system
modelling commenced with parameters associated with geographical
Table 2
information and incident solar irradiance at study-related locations Characteristic feature values of selected energy conversion devices [31].
(Section 3.1). The energy source parameter for the baseline case was the
Feature Energy conversion device (PV module) type
grid electricity, which was generated by eight input energy sources [32]
and distributed through a central monitoring system in the country of mono-Si poly-Si
the case study. The solar PV system was modelled by considering two Device efficiency (%) 20.7 18.75
configuration types: OG and GC. To provide backup for the OG config­ Nominal operating temperature (oC) 45 45
uration, an energy storage system (ESS) in the form of a battery bank Frame area/PV device (m2) 2.071 1.627
Capacity per device unit (W) 435 305
was designed. The inverter DPs were determined based on the peak load

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surveys. These cost parameters included the following: engineering and a three-step procedure was developed that considers the C&H-DDs and
development, PV module, inverter, ESS, system component (e.g., AC-DC corresponding air-conditioning and space-heating load as influential
breaker changeover switch), EFMs, and reverse-metering endorsement variables. The procedural steps were as follows.
(in case of GC application). The numeric values of the input DPs required Step I. Calculate the required reduced C&H-DDs for the mth month of
for modelling PV energy systems are listed in Table 3. the year with reference to the month with the maximum required C&H-
We made several assumptions for the PV energy project modelling, DDs by Eq. (1):
such as converting local market prices to USD using an exchange rate of
dr = dm /dmax (1)
1 USD to 200 PKR. Financial determinants were based on December
2021 since the economic market had been unpredictable in 2022, where dr represents the required reduced C&H-DDs for the mth month of
making it challenging to determine the average of any variable pattern. the year in comparison with dmax , dm represents the actual C&H-DDs
requirement for the mth month of the year, and dmax denotes the
maximum number of C&H-DDs among ‘M’ months of the year.
2.3. Optimal monthly energy demand (OMED) estimation procedure
Step II. Calculate the reduction in cooling and heating (C&H) load
corresponding to the required reduced number of C&H-DDs (dr ) by Eq.
A substantial portion of the EE demand is weather-dependant,
(2):
notably for appliances such as air-conditioning and space-heating
units required for maintaining a comfortable environment, which ac­ Lr = Lmax − (dr ∗ Lmax ) (2)
counts for approximately 50% of the total EE demand. The energy de­
mand is also affected by the required cooling and heating degree days where Lr represents the reduction in C&H load in watts for the mth
(C&H-DDs), which defines the required number of degrees above or month of the year relating to the corresponding reduced C&H-DDs (dr )
below the set comfort zone temperature (=18 ◦ C) for cooling or heating and Lmax represents the maximum C&H load value exits among ‘M’
applications, respectively [31]. The C&H-DDs vary depending on the months of the year.
weather conditions of each location, as illustrated in Figure S-1 of the Step III. Estimating the OMED using Eq. (3):
supplementary material (SM). Therefore, in order to estimate the OMED, (
Ltotal − Lr
)
Lopt = ∗ 100 (3)
Ltotal
Table 3
Input design parameter statistics. where Lopt represents the percentage OMED estimated for the mth month
Factor/property Characteristic value of the year and Ltotal represents the total EE load to fulfil the electrifi­
cation requirements in the residential unit.
Baseline case power source Grid electricity
Power tariff rate 0.1241 $/kWh [33]
Transmission and distribution loss 17.5% [34]
factor 2.4. Decision tree structure
Annual peak load demand 4.912 kW
Operating days per week 7 To conceptualise the strategic possibilities of integrating solar PV
Proposed case power system
renewables in the residential sector for energy sustainability, a decision
Renewable energy technology Solar Photovoltaic
Power grid type Off-grid/grid-connected tree was constructed with six design parametric variables, as shown in
Energy conversion devices mono-Si/poly-Si part 3 in Fig. 1, based on the work presented in Ref. [36] where a de­
Energy conversion device control Clamped cision tree comprised of nine parameters was constructed to analyse the
method competitiveness and impact of developing geothermal district heating in
Inverter efficiency 95%
Inverter capacity 5.2 kW
Geneva, Switzerland. In our constructed decision tree, the first variable
Backup/storage options Grid power (for GC configuration); ESS was the configuration of the energy system, which had two options: OG
(for OG configuration) and GC. The second variable was the choice between mono-crystalline
ESS types Lead acid battery/Dry-cell battery silicon (mono-Si) and polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) PV technologies
ESS voltage 12-V
for the energy conversion device (ECD). Specific models of PV modules
Days of autonomy 1 day (24 h)
Maximum discharging depth for ESS 80% were selected from the available 2001 and 2743 choices of mono-Si and
Efficiency of charge controller for ESS 90% poly-Si [31] options, respectively. The selection criteria were based on
ESS temperature control method Ambient efficiency, frame area, capacity, and availability in the market. The third
System installation & component cost (investment) variable was the installation slope angle, which had two options: lati­
mono-Si PV device cost 0.35 $/W
poly-Si type PV device cost 0.32 $/W
tude and determined OSA values for study-related locations, as
Inverter price 0.146 $/W described in Section 3.2. The fourth variable was the PV energy system
Lead acid cell price 0.865 $/Ah capacity, where 99–100% capacity was selected for OG applications,
Dry cell price 2.25 $/Ah and an equivalent number of PV units was selected for GC strategies. The
Changing of lead acid ESS (repetition After four years
fifth variable concerned the provision of a backup source, where backup
cost)
Changing of dry cell ESS (repetition After seven years power was supplied by an ESS, with two options, lead-acid (LA) and
cost) dry-cell (DrC), for the OG application and conventional grid power for
Energy project development cost 5–7% of the total PV devices cost the GC application. The sixth variable involved study-related locations,
(labour & transportation) where the modelled DSs were evaluated for nine metropolitan cities in
System accessories 3–5% of energy project cost
Operation and maintenance cost 1–2% of energy project cost
Pakistan, representing various geographical orientations and provinces.
(annual repetition cost) Geographical and meteorological information for study-related loca­
Incremental cost for EFMs 1000 $ tions is described in Section 3.1.
Net metering cost (for GC 500 $
configuration)
Financial Determinants 3. A case study of Pakistan
Inflation rate 12.3% [35]
Fuel cost escalation rate 17% [35] Pakistan is a developing country with abundant resources, such as
Discount rate 9.75% solar irradiance, coastal air corridors, rivers, and agricultural land, that
Estimated project life 20 years
can support water, energy and food supply in the residential sector [37,

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38]. Researchers have investigated the supply of water, energy and food 3.1. Climate data for study-related locations
by focusing on different perspectives [39–41], for example, evaluation
of bioethanol production [42], water infrastructure development to To model the solar PV energy system, we utilised geographical and
improve agricultural sector growth [43], and evaluation of the impact of meteorological information, such as latitude, longitude, air temperature,
water and energy conservation efforts in different buildings [44]. wind speed, earth temperature, monthly averaged daily solar radiation,
However, the current literature indicates that scholars have not exten­ cooling degree days (C-DDs), and heating degree days (H-DDs). These
sively focused on the integrated assessment of energy systems aiming at data were reported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administra­
achieving energy sustainability in Pakistan. Achieving energy, food, and tion and embedded into the RETScreen software database [31]. Impor­
water security is one of the seven pillars of Vision-2025, which aims to tant meteorological information for assessing solar energy applications
transform Pakistan into the next Asian Tiger, making it imperative to are monthly averaged daily incident solar radiation (horizontal and
focus on achieving sustainability. However, 24% of the population lacks tilted), annual solar energy output, and C&H-DDs [17] (illustrated in
access to electricity [45], the hunger index is severe, and a small per­ Figures S-1 and S-2 in SM). The geographical and meteorological in­
centage of the population has access to safe drinking water facilities formation for the study-related metropolitan cities in Pakistan is sum­
[46]. Pakistan has recently faced severe flooding, which has damaged marised in Tables S–1, and Figures S-1 and S-2 in SM.
the agricultural sector and disrupted power transmission and distribu­
tion systems. Given the challenges and risks highlighted by experts [47],
3.2. Optimum slope angle (OSA) for study-related locations
urgent efforts are required to achieve energy sustainability in Pakistan.
Conducting a comprehensive assessment of renewable-based energy
The performance of a solar PV energy system is directly proportional
systems is crucial, particularly to satisfy the electrification requirements
to the amount of solar radiation reaching the PV array. As the Earth
in the residential sector. Such an assessment can provide insights into
rotates around the sun and its own axis, the angle of rotation affects the
the correlations between DPs, identify influential DPs, quantify the
amount of incident energy received. To ensure that the energy system
impact and competitiveness of integrating solar energy into residential
performs efficiently throughout the year, it is recommended to tilt the
infrastructure, and facilitate a comparative assessment of DSs to deter­
PV module at a slope angle equivalent to the latitude [49,50]. However,
mine the best options for implementing solar RE systems and promoting
latitude may not necessarily be an OSA. To determine the OSA, we
the transition towards clean energy. To this effect, we modelled twelve
executed the solar PV energy model developed in RETScreen software by
DSs using the constructed decision tree to evaluate the feasibility of
varying the PV module slope angle from 15◦ to 50◦ with a 0.1◦ interval.
integrating solar PV into the energy infrastructure of Pakistan, with a
The decision was made based on the EE value delivered by PV module
focus on the residential sector in nine metropolitan cities. Fig. 2 depicts
indicator. The slope angle that resulted in the highest EE delivered value
the locations of these cities: Islamabad/Rawalpindi (ISL/RWP), Karachi
was identified as the OSA. The OSA values for the study-related locations
(KHI), Lahore (LHR), Peshawar (PEW), Quetta (QTA), Faisalabad (FSD),
are listed in the figure legend, and the EE output is plotted against the
Gujranwala (GRW), Multan (MTN), and Hyderabad (HYD). Table 4
incident solar radiation tilted in Fig. 3.
provides a summary of the modelled DSs for the PV energy system.
Among these DSs, GC strategies are linked with OG strategies in terms of
4. Results and analysis
having a similar number of PV module units, such as DS-7 and DS-8,
which are equivalent to DS-1 and DS-2, respectively, whereas DS-9
The results are analysed and presented as follows: quantification of
and DS-10 are equal to DS-3&5 and DS-4&6, respectively. DS-11 and
synergies and trade-offs between DPs, influential DPs of solar PV system
DS-12 have the same number of PV units as DS-9 and DS-10, but differ in
for energy sustainability, and impact and competitiveness of the
the PV module slope angle.
modelled solar PV energy systems.

Fig. 2. Geographical locations of study-related metropolitan cities of Pakistan [48].

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Table 4
A summary of decision strategies (DSs) modelled using the decision tree structure.
DP ES configuration Energy conversion device choice ECD slope Backup power Energy storage system

DS-# OG GC mono-Si poly-Si Lat. OSA LA DrC


1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
3 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
4 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
5 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
6 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
7 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
8 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
9 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
10 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
11 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
12 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Fig. 3. The electrical energy delivered in relation to varying PV module slope angles and identified optimum slope angles for study-related locations.

4.1. Synergies and trade-offs between design parameters variables and − 1 representing total negative interaction (trade-off),
whereas zero denotes no interaction between the two variables [52].
The monotonic statistical correlation between the DPs was calcu­ The results are shown in Fig. 4. From the overall perspective, the anal­
lated to determine synergies and trade-offs. For this purpose, we utilised ysis revealed that the number of synergies was slightly higher than the
datasets for DPs, which were used in RETScreen tool for modelling DSs trade-offs, with only around 2% difference. Eleven DPs exhibited more
of solar PV system. To quantify the monotonic relationship between DPs, trade-offs than synergies, while module efficiency did not interact with
the Pearson’s correlation analyses approach, which measures the linear any of the other 15 DPs.
dependence between two variables, was employed in IBM SPSS software From the perspective of DPs, precipitation, PV module units, and
by getting reflection from the work presented in Ref. [51] where cor­ their associated corresponding covered area parameters exhibited the
relation analysis approach was used to study the interaction between greatest number of synergistic interactions. Air temperature, earth
SDGs. We quantified the correlation between DPs in terms of the Pearson temperature, C-DDs, and OMED parameters all had more synergies than
correlation coefficient whose value varies between 1 and − 1, with 1 trade-offs. However, the slope angle and H-DDs had the highest number
representing total positive interaction (synergy) between the two of trade-offs, followed by atmospheric pressure and total investment cost

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Fig. 4. Monotonic correlation between design parameters, illustrating synergies and trade-offs.

DPs. The relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed had more demonstrated that the cost-related DPs, such as the total investment
trade-offs than synergies, placing them in third place. The ESS capacity cost, ESS capacity, and ESS cost, were deemed critical for all 3E in­
and resultant cost parameters ranked fourth in terms of more trade-offs dicators. Other important DPs for energy indicators included OMED
compared to synergistic interactions. estimation, air temperature, and C&H-DDs. For environmental and
The analysis of the percentage difference between synergies and economic DIs, the influential DPs were the station latitude, installation
trade-offs revealed that the precipitation parameter had the largest slope angle, and atmospheric pressure. The total investment cost was
difference of nine interactions, followed by PV module units and the determined to be the most influential parameter for all 3E indicators.
corresponding covered area, H-DDs, and slope angle parameters, with The analysis of influential DPs for 3E indicators from the perspective
differences ranging from seven to eight interactions. The remaining DPs of OG- and GC-configured energy systems is illustrated in Figure S-3 in
had a difference of one-three interactions between synergies and trade- the SM. For the energy indicator, the key DPs for OG configurations were
offs. OMED estimation, station latitude, earth temperature, C&H-DDs, and
incident solar radiation, whereas, for GC configurations, they were
4.2. Influential design parameters for energy sustainability C&H-DDs, incident solar radiation, OMED estimation, and atmospheric
pressure. Interestingly, the energy model- and cost-related DPs did not
To identify the influential DPs for the sustainability of the solar PV- significantly contribute to the feasibility of the PV energy system from
powered energy system, we adopted an established quantitative feature an energy indicator perspective. For environmental and economic DIs,
selection method, IGR method, as adopted by Shahzad et al. to investi­ energy model- and cost-related DPs were found to be more influential for
gate the landslide influencing factors [53]. We considered three repre­ OG configurations than weather-related DPs, whereas, for GC configu­
sentative 3E DIs: EP, GHGer, and NPV. We utilised the datasets for DPs rations, station latitude, PV device quantity, corresponding covered
and DIs, which were used in RETScreen software for modelling DSs and area, and total investment cost were identified to be critical DPs.
the outcomes of analysis for DIs, respectively. Using the IGR method The influential DPs for different ECD choices, mono-Si and poly-Si,
approach in the R-Studio user interface, as described in Section I in SM, are illustrated in Figure S-4 in the SM. The results demonstrated that
we calculated the IGR coefficient in the [0,1] interval for each DP to the importance pattern of DPs was identical for both choices. The total
establish its significance in relation to the supplied DIs. The higher value investment cost, ESS capacity, and its cost DPs were determined to be
of IGR coefficient indicates the higher contribution of a particular the most influential for all 3E indicators. The OMED estimation and H-
parameter for solar PV system modelling and consequently for energy DDs were found to be influential DPs for the energy indicator, followed
sustainability. We analysed the results to highlight the influential DPs of by station latitude and installation slope angle DPs for environmental
solar PV energy systems, as illustrated in Fig. 5 and Figures S-3 to S-14 in and economic DIs.
the SM. Moreover, we conducted separate analyses for each of the DSs for all
Fig. 5 presents an analysis of influential DPs for 3E DIs from an study-related locations in order to confirm the influential DPs identified
overall perspective, where vertical axis demonstrates the IGR coefficient from different perspectives, which are portrayed in Fig. 5 and Figures S-
value for DPs for 3E indicators (EP, GHGer, and NPV). The analysis 3 and S-4. Our analysis revealed that the key DPs for each DS were

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Fig. 5. Importance of PV energy system design parameters from an overall perspective, incorporating all modelled decision strategies.

consistent with those identified from the OG configuration perspective. investment cost, and station latitude were found to be influential for
For example, OMED estimation, C&H-DDs, and earth temperature were environmental and economic DIs. Similar trends were observed for DS-7
found to be influential DPs for the energy indicator in DS-1 to DS-6, to DS-12, with incident solar radiation, OMED estimation, and earth
whereas the installation slope angle, ESS capacity and its cost, total temperature as the most influential DPs for the energy indicator.

Fig. 6. The potential for reducing grid power dependency.

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A. Mehmood et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

Furthermore, we analysed the DSs for each study-related location and value in January and December, followed by the KHI station in
discovered that certain DPs were important for specific latitudes, such as November. This was owing to higher heating load requirements at the
relative humidity and precipitation for the KHI station and H-DDs for the QTA station. We compared the scenarios modelled with and without
ISL/RWP and QTA stations. The same energy model- and cost-related considering OMED estimations and discovered that applying this
DPs, such as total investment cost, ESS capacity, ESS cost, and PV de­ approach had the potential to reduce 13–19% of the total EE demand
vice quantity and corresponding covered area, were found to influence value, with the highest reduction values for the GRW, PEW, and FSD
environmental and economic DIs across all study-related locations. stations and the lowest reduction values for the KHI and HYD stations.
Additionally, the installation slope angle was an important environ­ This reduction in the energy demand could help make solar PV systems
mental indicator, but weather-related DPs did not significantly more techno-economically viable.
contribute to the feasibility of energy projects for both environmental
and economic DIs. The importance of DPs for each DS at each study- 4.3.2. Potential for reduction in grid power dependency
related locations is illustrated in Figures S-5 to S-14 in the SM. The potential for reduction in grid power dependency that can be
achieved through an RE project depends on its configuration and size. In
4.3. Impact of solar PV energy system strategies on energy sustainability our study, we modelled two possible configurations of the PV energy
system, OG and GC. The analysis of the results revealed the potential of
The impact of the modelled strategies of the solar PV system on en­ reducing reliance on grid power source, as depicted in Fig. 6. For the OG
ergy sustainability was quantified, as illustrated in Figs. 6 and 7 and configuration, the solar PV system had no connection to the grid, which
Figure S-15. For this purpose, the modelled DSs of solar PV energy meant that it did not rely on the grid energy source as long as it could
system were executed and analysed in RETScreen tool. The analyses fulfil the electrification needs in the residential unit via direct and stored
were concluded with the datasets of techno-economic-environmental energy sources. In contrast, the GC configuration had a dual impact on
indicators, which were imported into Microsoft Excel to quantify the the energy infrastructure of the country. On the one hand, it could
cumulative impact of the modelled DSs on energy sustainability. This export 12–17 MWh EE to the grid, whereas on the other hand, it could
was accomplished by considering the optimised DPs (OMED estimation) reduce dependency on grid power source. For the GC configuration, the
and 3E DIs (reduction in grid power dependency, reduction in electricity analysis elaborated that 12–18% of the total EE demand value still
bills, and potential for cleaner production). required grid power source, which was equivalent to 8–15% of its
exported EE value to grid. This implied that there was potential for an
4.3.1. Impact of design parameter optimisation 82–87% reduction in dependency on grid power source for modelled
Impact of optimising the DPs on energy sustainability was quantified GC-configured solar PV systems. From the perspective of DSs, OG con­
in terms of the OMED parameter. For this purpose, we followed proce­ figurations were found to be equally significant with the same EE
dural steps to estimate the OMED for nine study-related cities in generated by PV modules; however, DS-7 and DS-8 configurations were
Pakistan. In our calculations, we made a fundamental assumption that found to be more significant among GC configurations with a greater
only the cooling and heating load element would be required. The re­ potential of reduction in grid power dependency compared to rest of GC
sults of the OMED estimations for the study-related latitudes are pre­ configurations.
sented in Figure S-15 in the SM. Our analysis revealed that seven out of
nine stations, including ISL/RWP, KHI, LHR, PEW, FSD, GRW, and MTN, 4.3.3. Economic impact
had the highest energy demands in June. QTA and HYD had the highest The economic impact of the modelled strategies of the solar PV
energy demands in July and May, respectively. Intensive cooling ap­ system on energy sustainability was quantified in terms of the reduction
plications in the summer months led to the highest energy demand. in electricity bills. This reduction in electricity bills was calculated by
During the winter months, the QTA station had the highest demand multiplying the quantified reduction in grid power consumption value

Fig. 7. Cleaner production potential of the modelled PV projects at study-related locations.

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A. Mehmood et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

with the baseline power tariff rate, which is mentioned in Table 3. The The comparison revealed that the capacity factor of the GC-configured
reduction in electricity bills was first estimated in terms of quantified DSs was more than twice that of OG strategies. This is primarily
impact of OMED parameter. The analysis revealed that estimating the related to the configuration type, as a GC configuration allows excess
OMED resulted in approximately 35–36% decrease in monthly elec­ generated EE to be exported to the grid, whereas an OG configuration
tricity bills in a residential unit. lacks this facility. Additionally, the difference in the backup source ca­
Then, the estimation of reduction in electricity bills in terms of the pacity limit prevents the export of all excess power to the ESS in OG
modelled OG and GC configurations revealed that the electricity bills configurations. Other factors that govern the power system capacity
reduced to 98–99% for OG configurations with total annual savings of factor include the incident solar radiation, latitude, ECD type, and PV
2.192–2.385 thousand USD. Whereas for GC configurations, electricity module control methodology [17]. The most competitive latitudes for
bills reduced by 82–87% with total annual savings of 3.073–3.379 OG-configured DSs were QTA, PEW, HYD, and GRW, whereas QTA was
thousand USD. The revenue was additionally generated by GC config­ the most competitive latitude for GC-configured DSs with the highest
urations, which was equivalent to 732–892 USD per annum through the capacity factor value, followed by GRW, PEW, KHI, MTN, HYD = FSD,
sale of electricity exported to the grid. As a result of reduced dependency LHR, and ISL/RWP, in descending competitive feasibility order.
on grid power, a substantial economic impact was estimated in terms of Regarding EE generated by PV modules, EE exported to the grid, and
fuel cost savings that is needed to invest for importing fuels (Fig. 7) to required backup or ESS indicators, the analysis presented in Figs. 6 and 8
generate electricity, as Pakistan electricity generation infrastructure illustrates that both OG- and GC-configured DSs had their own strengths
relies on imported fuels [54]. The comparative analysis of OG and GC and weaknesses. OG-configured DSs generated less EE than GC-
configurations revealed that GC configurations found more economi­ configured DSs, but they were more reliable since they did not depend
cally impactful, with multiple economic benefits, than OG on grid power source, which is not always available in countries such as
configurations. Pakistan owing to load-shedding phenomena. In contrast, GC-
configured DSs were found to be more cost-effective and sustainable
4.3.4. Potential for cleaner production as they generated more EE, wasted less energy, required less than half
The goal of achieving a sustainable energy transition is linked to the the investment required for OG configurations, and did not necessitate
environmental targets of SDG 13. The substitution of high-carbon- the replacement and management of ESS. However, they were less
emitting fuels with RE sources remains the primary focus of ongoing reliable than OG-configured DSs because they depended on grid power
debates for creating a cleaner planet for future generations. Despite source. Considering energy indicator-based competitiveness in the
introducing several protocols (e.g., Kyoto protocol) and incentive context of latitudes, it was determined that KHI was the most feasible
schemes (e.g., carbon credits), decision-making authorities are latitude for OG-configured DSs, followed by HYD, QTA, and others. For
contemplating the deployment of carbon taxation policies to encourage GC-configured DSs, KHI competed with QTA and MTN for being the
GHG reduction strategies. As shown in Fig. 7, the modelled solar PV most feasible.
projects offer significant potential for cleaner production, as measured From the perspective of environmental indicators, the competitive­
in terms of barrels of crude oil not consumed, equivalent GHGer, and ness of the conceptualised DSs was evaluated by analysing their poten­
equivalent tonnes of waste recycled. These quantifications were tial for GHGer. Fig. 7 illustrates the results, which demonstrated that GC-
concluded while analysing the DSs in RETScreen tool, and the cumula­ configured DSs had greater potential for GHGer owing to the larger
tive potential was estimated by importing and analysing the outcomes in amount of EE generated, which could replace the use of crude oil or
Microsoft Excel. Our analysis elaborated that a unit scale modelled PV gasoline. Regarding latitude, KHI had the highest environmental po­
energy system would save 21–24 barrels of crude oil or 4055–4411 L of tential for GC-configured DSs, followed by QTA and MTN, while for OG-
gasoline fuel annually for OG configurations and 36–42 barrels of crude configured DSs, HYD competes with KHI, followed by QTA. In terms of
oil or 6667–7746 L of gasoline fuel annually for GC configurations. This GHGer indicator, ISL/RWP and GRW had the least environmental sus­
would lead to a reduction of GHG emissions equivalent to 9.4–10.3 tCO2 tainability potential for GC- and OG-configured DSs, respectively.
for OG configurations and 15.5–18 tCO2 for GC configurations per The economic competitiveness of the conceptualised DSs was
annum, which equates to recycling 3.3–3.5 tonnes of waste for OG investigated to determine the manner of attracting investors and pro­
configurations and 5.4–6.2 tonnes of waste for GC configurations. All moting solar renewable market growth. As indicated in Fig. 9, the
OG configurations were found to be equally significant, whereas, among financial determinants used to evaluate economic competitiveness
the GC configurations, DS-7 and DS-9 had higher cleaner production include NPV, payback period (PBP), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and total
potential compared to other DSs. Cumulatively, a modelled solar PV initial investment (see Figure S-17 in the SM including all financial de­
system had the potential to reduce emissions by 187–203 tCO2 for OG terminants). Among these determinants, the initial investment was the
configurations and 307–357 tCO2 for GC configurations during their most persuasive to investors, whereas NPV was important from an
proposed twenty-year lifespans. By incorporating solar PV energy into economist’s perspective. NPV, PBP, and BCR can be calculated using the
modelled energy systems, we could achieve environmental sustainabil­ relations defined in Refs. [17,55].
ity and conserve fossil fuels for future generations. After analysing the results, it was found that GC-configured DSs
required 26–30% less investment than OG-configured DSs paired with
4.4. Competitiveness of solar PV energy system strategies lead-acid ESS and 49–55% less investment than OG strategies paired
with dry-cell ESS. Hence, GC-configured DSs were more competitive,
The competitiveness of the conceptualised DSs of the modelled solar with less than half of the PBP and more than double the NPV and BCR.
PV energy system was evaluated in terms of various energy, economic, The required covered area of the solar PV system was also an impedi­
and environmental indicators. For this purpose, we utilised the outcome ment to its implementation, as a large area (67–98 m2) is required for the
datasets of indicators obtained after analysing the DSs of solar PV system project, which may not be accessible to every residential unit in society.
in RETScreen tool. From an economic standpoint, the GC-configured DSs were found to
First, the competitiveness of the conceptualised DSs was evaluated be more competitive, with up to 2.25 and 1.5 times the NPV of the OG
within the context of energy indicators, which included the power sys­ strategies paired with dry-cell and lead-acid ESS, respectively. The de­
tem capacity factor, EE generated by the PV modules, net EE exported to cision tree parameter-based analysis showed that using poly-Si ECD
the grid, and backup energy source requirement. The analysis in terms of could improve NPV by 5–10%. Mounting the PV devices at OSA could
energy indicators is presented in Fig. 8 and S-16. improve NPV by 0–11% for OG configurations and 0.5–0.2% for GC
The competitiveness of the DSs in terms of the power system capacity configurations. However, using a dry-cell ESS decreases the NPV by
factor at study-related latitudes is presented in Figure S-16 in the SM. 16–24% owing to the increased investment.

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A. Mehmood et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

Fig. 8. Energy indicator-based competitiveness of decision strategies at study-related locations.

Fig. 9. Economic competitiveness of decision strategies at study-related locations.

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A. Mehmood et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

PBP and BCR determinants favoured poly-Si ECD over mono-Si, with • The government should encourage the installation of domestic-scale
0.7–1.2 years less PBP and 0.2–0.4 higher BCR values. DSs modelled for energy systems with decentralised power transmission and distri­
OSA executed fractional reduction in PBP of 0.1–0.7 years for OG con­ bution in order to achieve energy sustainability in the residential
figurations and increased BCR by 0–0.1. In contrast, energy systems sector and prevent central power line overloading factor.
combined with dry-cell ESS had a higher PBP (4.3–5.5) years and BCR • Electric energy sharing at the residential level should be permitted
(0.7–1.5) compared to energy systems combined with lead-acid ESS. The via sub-metering to aid low-income communities in reaping the
overall analysis of PBP and BCR results demonstrated that GC- benefits of having access to electricity.
configured DSs were more competitive with 4.8–7.8 and 9.1–13.3 • Specific incentive schemes, such as credits for cleaner production,
years shorter PBPs and 4.2–5.5 and 4.9–7 higher BCRs than OG con­ should be introduced to reduce GHG emissions, enhance the impact
figurations combined with lead-acid and dry-cell ESS, respectively. The and competitiveness of renewable-powered energy systems, and
competitiveness of latitude stations followed similar feasibility trending attract investors.
curves for PBP and BCR determinants, with ISL/RWP having the highest • Compliance with food, water, and energy consumption monitoring
PBP and lowest BCR values. KHI had the lowest PBP values and second systems based on established standards should be enforced, and
highest BCR values, whereas HYD had the highest BCR values. waste surcharging can be implemented to reduce waste and
contribute to achieving the sustainability in the residential sector.
5. Discussion and recommendations • Both GC- and OG-configured solar PV energy systems should be
promoted with corresponding incentives to encourage residents of
The feasibility of the solar PV-powered energy system to achieve different economic circles to install them according to affordability,
energy sustainability was investigated by modelling DSs by combining thereby reducing the load on the central power grid.
the DPs of the PV system. To facilitate this process, a decision tree
structure was constructed, which revealed several key DPs that have a 6. Conclusions
substantial impact on the performance of the solar PV energy systems.
The configuration type was determined to be the most significant, with To achieve energy sustainability in the residential sector, it is crucial
GC configurations proving more effective than OG configurations to optimally design and investigate renewable-based energy systems,
because of the lower wastage of produced EE. Poly-Si ECD was discov­ particularly in developing countries. This study developed an energy
ered to be more technologically and economically efficient than mono-Si model that incorporated the electrification requirements in the resi­
owing to its performance at higher nominal temperatures and lower dential unit and analysed it by incorporating renewable solar PV. The
capital costs, despite having lower efficiency values [17]. model optimises the electric energy load characteristics by developing a
In terms of backup energy source, the grid energy source was found cooling and heating load estimation procedure. To assess the feasibility
to be more favourable than the ESS, with a lower levelised cost of of integrating solar PV renewables for energy sustainability, this study
electricity, absence of power fluctuations, and no replacement concerns. conceptualised DSs by constructing a decision tree structure containing
However, in the case study country, grid power is unreliable owing to six DPs of the energy model. The DSs were thoroughly evaluated in a
load-shedding phenomena [56]; therefore, combining ESS may be case study of nine metropolitan cities in Pakistan by calculating the
preferred depending on the willingness of investors to compromise on OSAs for all latitudes.
investment-related concerns [57]. The PV energy system was designed In this study, we concluded that synergies and trade-offs among the
and analysed with a load factor of 0.9–1.0, which favours a high-class DPs of solar PV energy systems were nearly equal, with synergies
locality. However, it should also be designed with a low load factor to exceeding trade-offs by around 2%. However, most DPs had greater
verify its feasibility in low- and medium-class localities. trade-offs than synergies when considered individually. According to the
Examining the DPs of the energy system revealed that the cost pa­ influential DPs of the solar PV system for energy sustainability, the cost
rameters have an impact on the technical feasibility of the solar PV parameters were comparatively more important followed by the sug­
energy system, whereas the weather parameters have the greatest effect gested OMED parameter in overall perspective. The weather-related DPs
on the economic and environmental indicators of the system. A para­ had a greater importance for energy indicators, while solar PV energy
metric correlation examination revealed a synergistic relationship be­ model-related technical and cost-related DPs had a greater importance
tween cost and weather parameters. Optimising the PV energy system by for environmental and economic DIs.
estimating the monthly energy demand confirmed that factors such as Optimising the energy load characteristics by considering optimal
latitude, climatic conditions, and set temperature values of electric ap­ load estimation, energy efficiency measures, standard water consump­
pliances can greatly affect the total energy demand value, resulting in a tion, and energy waste prevention for food sector activities could result
13–19% reduction in the EE demand in the residential unit. The in approximately 35% reduction in the energy demand in the residential
reduction in grid power source dependence is also contingent on the unit. The impact assessment of the OMED estimation parameter alone
exergy value of the solar PV system, which is influenced by the solar could reduce the energy demand by 13–19%, positively impacting the
incident radiation weather parameters [50]. The potential for cleaner energy sustainability. The study also concluded that GC configurations
production depends on the amount of fossil fuels combusted to fulfil EE could result in an 82–87% reduction in reliance on grid power source,
demand, and a greater amount of EE generated by solar PV energy supporting a 36–42 barrels reduction in crude oil consumption, whereas
systems will necessitate less fossil fuel combustion. In countries that rely OG configurations supported a reduction in crude oil consumption
on imported fuel [54], such as Pakistan, the combustion of fossil fuels equivalent to 21–24 barrels.
can be detrimental to the environmental sustainability and economy of This study assessed the impact and competitiveness of solar PV sys­
the country. Therefore, conducting a feasibility study before installing tem strategies for energy sustainability in the residential sector, taking
PV-powered energy systems is crucial for addressing the increasing en­ into account 3E DIs. It was discovered that the GC and OG configurations
ergy demand caused by urbanisation. This should result in optimum strongly impacted and competed for sustainability. The comparative
performance for the smallest possible expenditure and can aid in assessment concluded that GC configurations had a greater impact
achieving energy sustainability in the residential sector. because of the additional EE delivered to the grid, the higher power
The results of this study and their associated discussion offer several system capacity factors, the higher cleaner production potential and
suggestions for promoting the energy sustainability in the residential equivalent fossil fuel savings, the lower required investment cost, the
sector of Pakistan. higher NPVs, and the lower PBPs. In contrast, OG configurations elim­
inated the dependence on grid power.
Consequently, the overall impact and competitiveness analysis

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A. Mehmood et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 49 (2023) 101126

revealed that both GC and OG configurations might be pursued to References


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