Just Odds

“It is likely that unlikely things

should happen.”
 Just Odds

An Illustrated Guide to J.E.

Littlewood’s Law of Miracles
How and Why Strange Things
Happen at least once every 35
days in your life.

A Mathematical Glimpse

David Christopher Lane

Mt. San Antonio College

Walnut, California
 ______________________________

First Edition | MSAC Philosophy Group

ISBN: 978-1-56543-202-4

Copyright date: 2018

General Editors: Dr. Andrea Diem and Dr.

David Lane

Mt. San Antonio College, Walnut

MSAC Philosophy Group was founded in 1990 and is
designed to provide a wide range of materials (from
books to magazines to films to audio presentations
to interactive texts) on such subjects as
evolutionary biology, quantum theory, neuroscience,
and critical studies in religion and philosophy.

______________________________
 Dedication

To playing the numbers

“Information is the resolution
of uncertainty.”
--Claude Shannon
 While I understand that
unusual occurrences can indeed
be interpreted in super-
mundane ways, it doesn’t mean
that such events are the
result of something trans-
rational. Indeed, even the most
apparently miraculous of
synchronicities may have a
mathematical basis.

1
 The probability of any two
events intersecting in
meaningful ways is higher
than we usually suspect. The
linchpin in all of this is our
ability to remain aware of
how probabilities arise in our
life, moment-to-moment,
hour-to-hour, day-to-day.

2
 John Edensor Littlewood, one
of the great mathematicians of
the last century and a senior
wrangler at Cambridge
University, worked intensively
on the theory of large
numbers.

3
 Freeman Dyson writing in
the New York Review of
Books explains it this way:
“Littlewood's Law of Miracles
states that in the course of
any normal person's life,
miracles happen at a rate of
roughly one per month.”

4
“So the total number of events
that happen to us is about
thirty thousand per day, or
about a million per month.”

Dividing Time

We take 32 inhales of
oxygen per minute.

We blink our eyes 15 to 20

times per minute.

We swallow 600 times a

day.

We touch our face 3,000

times a day.

5
 “With few exceptions, these
events are not miracles
because they are insignificant.”

6
 “The chance of a miracle is
about one per million events.”

7
 “Therefore we should expect
about one miracle to happen,
on the average, every month.”
The key, however, is that we
must be awake to this
probability matrix. Most of
us remain unaware of the
implications of what truly
large numbers can bring forth.

8
There is another branch off
of Littlewood’s theory of
large numbers that I call
Desultory Decussation
(where two apparently
random events intersect
to form an X).

9
 If there are thousands, nay
millions, of events in our lives
(measured in transparently
fractal ways), then it should
be expected that for (say)
every 10,000 plus events, there
may be two or more events
which intersect.

10
 Notice that intersection and
you will be aware of a
meaningful coincidence--the
meaning being that two
disparate parts have something
in common (whatever that
intersection may entail).

11
We can even splinter off from
this and make a broad
sweeping generalization. There
are those who look or seek out
these desultory decussations
and those who do not.

12
 I would imagine that some of
us are more attuned or keenly
aware of the intersections
(which happen randomly) and
they will end up seeing more
meaning in their lives, even if
the meaning quota is the same
(relatively speaking) for all.

13
 In other words, there are
those who seek the Littlewood
stream and plunge right in and
those who do not.

14
 Blind typing may in fact
produce a legible word just by
chance, but the key in all this
is to actually become aware of
that probability and notice it
when such does occur.
Otherwise, so many amazing
happenings of chance go by
completely undetected.

15
If we could remain conscious of
this mathematical matrix, we
would be experiencing stunning
hierophanies not only monthly,
but perhaps daily. We already
know that the theory of large
numbers bears this possibility
out. The only real glitch
resides within our selves.

16
 To experience Littlewood
miracles or desultory
decussations (random events
interwining in meaningful X
patterns), it takes a Herculean
effort on our part to remain
open to what strange
coincidences nature may
throw out at us.

17
 The high improbability of an
event oftentimes blinds us from
the probability, even if rare,
that such events are
probabilistic.

18
 “The theory of probabilities is
at bottom nothing but common
sense reduced to calculus; it
enables us to appreciate with
exactness that which accurate
minds feel with a sort of
instinct for which of times
they are unable to account.”

--Pierre Simon Laplace

19
 Littlewood’s Law of Miracles
is based on the idea that given
a large enough number set
almost anything is possible,
indeed probable. However,
human beings are not good at
processing the very large or
the very small and because of
this we can easily succumb to
believing in all sorts of
nonsense. We are meaning
seeking creatures who tend to
find patterns and purposes in
things and events that are
devoid of them.

20
 Apophenia
“Apophenia is the spontaneous
perception of connections and
meaningfulness of unrelated
phenomena. The term was
coined by German neurologist
and psychiatrist Klaus Conrad
(1905-1961).”
—Robert Todd Carroll

21
 What is at work here is the
intentionality fallacy, where
we conflate our subjective
needs and wants with outward
events, mistakenly believing
that the latter is literally
contouring to our internal
forms of awareness.

22
 Richard Feynman, the well-
known architect of Quantum
Electrodynamics, strenuously
argued that a scientist should
point out those details that
may contradict his findings or
allow others to reevaluate his
results in new and perhaps
contrarian ways.

23
 Knowing that intentionality
and probability intertwined
can produce all sorts of
unexpected things, I sometimes
say to myself before going into
the Newport Beach library
bookstore (a treasure trove
for a book collector) that I
have to get into the
“Littlewood” stream.

24
 One time, I went into the
bookstore and I was looking
for a nice edition of Leo
Tolstoy's Anna Karenina. But
alas none was found. So I said
to myself, "Ah, wait and see;
let's play the Littlewood
game." A minute or so later,
the librarian brought a new
trove of books for sale to be
placed on the shelves. And the
first book she brought out? A
leather bound copy of Tolstoy's
classic.

25
26
 Do I really think this book
coincidence “may serve as a
reminder to us that there is
indeed inherent spirituality in
the universe that cannot be
explained by our rational
scientific technological minds
or brains.” Of course not. To
the contrary, I think it shows
how human intentionality
intertwined with probabilities
plays out over time. It is the
height of hubris to think that
the universe is contouring to
my internal whims.

27
As Sandra L Hubscher points
out in her fine article on
Apophenia:

“This brings us to a number of

deficiencies in the natural
human assessment of
randomness. One is that
randomness, by virtue of
its nature, does contain
some patterns. Being pattern
seekers, we focus on and
over-interpret these
patterns.”

28
Strange coincidences do happen
and they happen much more
often if they are coupled with
a creature evolved to be a
pattern seeker.

29
 Homo sapiens are gifted
enough to connect dots that
are unconnected, to conjoin
meanings that are quite
disjointed, and discern deeply
personal messages from the
universe in the letter and
number sequences on license
plates while driving in a car.

30
The other night I was watching
a couple of DVDs which is my
habit if I get off the computer
early enough. None of the
movies were any good, but I
did find the previews of coming
attractions intriguing. One of
the new movies coming out
from Lion's Gate is Peaceful
Warrior, which is based on the
life story of Dan Millman, a
former world champion athlete
and the author of several
books with millions of readers.

31
After seeing the preview I was
over at a friend's house who
asked me about Dan Millman
completely out of the blue. I
mentioned that I was aware of
his writings, but I didn't know
much more than that. Well,
today, guess what? I receive a
completely unexpected and
unsolicited letter from Dan
Millman himself asking if I
would give him my permission
to use some of my writings in
his forthcoming memoir.

32
33
 Now if I wished to ad hoc
devise a number scale on the
unusualness of the preceding
synchronicity, I am fairly
confident that I could massage
the numbers enough so as to
make it appear that these
three unrelated events (seeing
a preview of Dan Millman's
movie, being asked about
Millman the next day, and then
having Dan Millman write to
me) could not simply have
happened by chance.

34
 But assigning probabilities in
this after-the-event way is
pseudoscientific sleight of
hand, since it implies a
neutrality and objectivity that
cannot be ascertained. That's
precisely why science often
necessitates double-blind
experiments and rigorous
experimental protocols so that
the researcher's biases
(consciously or unconsciously)
get minimized in the
translative process.

35
Given our subjective moods and
desires, we have an endemic
tendency to impute meaning
and patterns on events which
when objectively analyzed by
disinterested observers have
neither.

36
 As Sandra L Hubscher
illustrates, “Modern examples
of apophenia (and its subset
corollary pareidolia) are so
numerous and sufficiently well-
known to hardly need
enumerating, but are amusing
enough to merit repeating:
Drosnin's The Bible Code, in
which arrangements of letters
pulled from scripture predicted
events such as 9/11, [and] the
infamous grilled cheese
sandwich Virgin Mary.”

37
 Hubscher also cites, “Led
Zeppelin's Stairway to Heaven
crooning ‘My sweet Satan,’
when played backward, the
face on Mars, and, apparently,
psychoanalysis.”

38
Here we will have to follow
Pierre Simon Laplace's
pertinent admonition, “The
weight of evidence for an
extraordinary claim must be
proportioned to its
strangeness.”

39
 Of course, just as I write
these last lines, I was
interrupted by my wife and
two children who are playing
a child's card game called
“War.” As I was explaining
to each of them what the
word “apophenia” means, I
jokingly looked at the covered
deck of cards and said, “In
honor of the goddess of
apophenia, I predict that
the next card will be the
number five.”

40
 Guess what happened? To
everyone's chagrin, the next
card was the number five!

41
It is truly mind boggling what
kinds of coincidences can occur
even with relatively small
number sets. Perhaps the best
example of this comes from
what is known today as the
“Birthday Paradox.”

42
 I have introduced this mind
teaser in my upper division
classes on science and religion
at California State University,
Long Beach, typically with this
opening question: “What do you
think the odds are that two
students in here have the same
birthday, keeping in mind that
a typical year has 365 days in
it?” Given that there are
usually only 35 or so students
in my course, most of them
respond that the odds are not
very high.

43
 I then dramatically exclaim
(doing a fairly awful Uri Geller
imitation) that two students in
the course should have the
same birthday and that if I am
wrong I will buy pizza and
drinks for the entire class
next week.

44
 I then go around the room
systematically and ask each
student his or her birthday.
When the class hears that two
students have exactly the
same birthday (once it so
happened that the first two
students I called upon had the
same birthday), they seem
quite perplexed. How can that
be and why was their
Professor so confident that
he would be right?

45
Simple answer: math!

46
 If there are 23 students in a
classroom, the odds are roughly
50 percent that two students
will have the same birthday.
Increase that number to 51
and the odds increase to a
surprising 97 percent. The
birthday paradox can also be
applied (analogically) to help us
better understand why certain
coincidences (beyond birthdays)
occur when we meet strangers
who share certain similarities
with us.

47
 Elliott Benjamin, who holds a
Ph.D. in mathematics, believes
in a phenomenon he calls
“license plate synchronicity.”
Elliot claims that he found two
license plates that had similar
numbers in the Caribbean: the
first was 4696 and the second
one was 496 at a novelty shop.
This very much impressed Elliot
and he gives the odds as 1 in
20 million of this happening by
chance.

48
However, (and contrary to Dr.
Benjamin’s ad hoc statistics)
we can all find amazing
coincidences in the world
around us if we look for them,
but that doesn’t indicate that
the universe at large is
consciously manipulating
metallic plates to provide us
with spiritual messages from
beyond. Rather, it is our own
brain and and our own
intentionality that interprets
random number sequences in
meaningful ways that are
peculiar to us.

49
 For instance, one afternoon as
I was waiting for lunch, I
decided to walk out to the
parking lot ruminating on what
the odds would be to find two
license plates that have the
same three numbers in
sequence. Simply put, could I
replicate Dr. Benjamin’s
experiment myself and show
that probability (and not astral
guidance) is the modus operandi
behind why weird correlations
are bound to happen naturally?

50
 And lo and behold as if Mr.
Littlewood himself was guiding
the proceedings (or was it Carl
Jung calling down from the
Collective Unconscious?) I find
two completely different cars
parked right next to each
other with the exact same
three numbers in sequential
order: 895 and 895.

51
Do I think what just happened
(to cite Elliot’s words referring
to his own coincidences) is “not
necessarily beyond scientific
explanation if one enters the
realm of quantum physics,
where if my limited
understanding of quantum
physics is correct, thoughts
can indeed affect physical
realities and ‘spooky action at
a distance’ is the norm.”?

52
 No. I think it was a fun
coincidence and nothing more.
I don’t for a second believe
that we need to invoke
quantum entanglement to
explain what can already be
fully understood by simple
math and statistics. There is
nothing spooky going on if what
is happening can be explained
by number theory intersecting
with human intentionality and
meaning seeking.

53
 I think we can all find
synchronicities in our lives,
especially if we consciously
intend to seek them out. But
they are not due to some
divine intervention; although
ironically it may be that those
who naively believe so tend to
have more desultory
decussations than others.

54
 In conclusion, I think readers
should be forewarned before
venturing out and trying their
hands (which should remain,
lest we forget, on the steering
wheel) at finding synchronous
license plate numbers. Once a
number gets in your head (and
following Dawkins’s memetic
infection theory) it can be very
difficult to let it go.

55
 One can feel like the main
character in Jorge Borge’s
classic short story, The Zahir,
where he gets completely
obsessed with a 20 centavo
coin and can think of nothing
else until he reaches the
conclusion that he will either
go completely mad or find God
as a result.

56
 For Further Reading

The Black Swan: The Impact of the

Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

You are Probability

by Andrea Diem

Littlewood’s Miscellany
by John E. Littlewood and Béla
Bollobás

A Mathematician’s Apology
by G.H. Hardy

57