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Peng Han, Katsumi Hattori, Qinghua Huang, Shinji Hirooka, Chie Yoshino
PII: S1367-9120(16)30215-2
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.011
Reference: JAES 2756
Please cite this article as: Han, P., Hattori, K., Huang, Q., Hirooka, S., Yoshino, C., Spatiotemporal characteristics
of the geomagnetic diurnal variation anomalies prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) and the possible
coupling of multiple pre-earthquake phenomena, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences (2016), doi: http://dx.doi.org/
10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.011
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Spatiotemporal characteristics of the geomagnetic diurnal variation anomalies prior
to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) and the possible coupling of multiple pre-
earthquake phenomena
Beijing, China
Tel: +81-43-290-2801
Fax: +81-43-290-2859
E-mail: hattori@earth.s.chiba-u.ac.jp
1
Abstract
Xu et al., 2013 and Han et al., 2015 have reported unusual behaviors of geomagnetic
diurnal variation (GDV) in the vertical component prior to the 2011 off the Pacific coast
temporal-spatial analyses of GDV have been applied in this study. Geomagnetic data of
long-term observations at 17 stations in Japan have been analyzed using the same method
in Han et al. 2015. Ratios of diurnal variation range between the reference station KAK
and the target stations have been computed. After removing seasonal variations, the 15-
day backward running mean values of the ratios in the vertical component shows a clear
anomaly exceeding the statistical threshold about 2 months before the mega event at both
ESA and MIZ stations in the Tohoku Region. Locations of anomalies in spatial
distribution show a good correlation with the epicenter of the Mw 9.0 earthquake. These
spatiotemporal results are consistent with those obtained from other independent
observations such as groundwater level and GPS displacements. The coupling of multiple
2
1. Introduction
There have been many reports on electromagnetic field changes associated with
earthquakes in a very wide frequency range from megahertz to quasi-DC (e.g. Hayakawa
and Fujinawa (eds.), 1994; Hayakawa and Molchanov (eds.), 2002). These phenomena
decades all over the world (e.g., Park, 1996; Johnston, 1997; Pulinets et al., 2003;
Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011; Hattori, 2004; Sarkar at al., 2007). The seismo-
(eds.), 2002). One of the most promising candidates is the measurement of ULF
electromagnetic phenomena (e.g., Park, 1996; Johnston, 1997; Hattori, 2004). Until now,
a large number of ULF electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes has been
reported (Nagao et al., 2002; Uyeda et al., 2002, 2009a, 2009b; Hattori et al., 2004a,
2004b, 2013a; Yen et al., 2004; Zhuang et al., 2005; Telesca and Hattori, 2007; Bleier et
al., 2009; Han et al., 2009, 2011; Zhao et al., 2009, 2010; Chavez et al., 2010; Chen et al.,
2010, 2013; Dunson et al., 2011; Huang, 2011a, 2011b, 2015; Wen at al., 2012; Xu et al.,
2013; Febriani et al., 2014; Shekotov and Hayakawa, 2015; Jiang et al., 2016). Especially,
Kanto, Japan (Hattori et al., 2013b; Han et al., 2014) have confirmed the existence of
such as ionosphere disturbance (e.g., Liu et al., 2000; Parrot et al., 2006; Píša et al., 2013),
crustal deformation (e.g., Chen et al., 2011; Wang at al., 2013), and ground water
perturbations (e.g., Koizumi et al., 2004) have been reported. The integrated analysis of
3
multi-observations may help to reveal the complex earthquake preparation phase (De
variation (GDV) prior to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0,
hereafter, the Tohoku earthquake). They investigated the ratios of GDV range between
the target station ESA and the remote reference station KAK. According to their results,
there was a clear increase of the ratios in the vertical component about 2 months before
the mega event. To validate the results claimed in Xu et al. (2013), Han et al. (2015)
applied further investigations of GDV associated with the Tohoku earthquake by using a
much longer data observed at KAK and ESA stations during 1997~2012. They found the
anomaly shown by Xu et al. (2013) was unique over a 16-year long background, and
further discussions indicated that the anomaly was unlikely caused by strong
geomagnetic storms or a statistical fluke. However, Xu et al. (2013) and Han et al. (2015)
did not analyze the data observed at other geomagnetic stations in Japan. Whether the
geomagnetic anomaly appears only in the Tohoku area is unclear. Meanwhile, other pre-
earthquake phenomena of the Tohoku event such as foreshock activity (Kato et al., 2012),
seismicity changes (Nanjo et al., 2012; Varotsos et al., 2013; Sarlis et al., 2013; Skordas
and Sarlis, 2014), groundwater level and temperature variations (Orihara, et al., 2014),
and GPS surface displacements (Chen et al., 2014, Hattori et al., 2014) have been
reported. The linkage between the magnetic anomalies and other pre-earthquake
To clarify the spatial distribution of GDV anomalies prior to the Tohoku earthquake,
4
distributed in the whole Japan region in this study. The possible coupling effects among
different pre-earthquake phenomena and the behind physics are discussed to understand
2. Data analysis
occurred at 14:46 LT (Local Time) on March 11, 2011 in Japan. In this study, we used the
data from 17 geomagnetic stations distributed in the whole Japan region. Three of the
stations are operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the rest are run by
the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI). Table.1 gives the details of the
geomagnetic stations. Fig. 1 shows the locations of the epicenter and the stations. The
original data were absolute values of the horizontal (H), declination (D), and vertical (Z)
The GDV has been considered as a potential candidate to monitor ground conductivity
changes that possibly occurred during the preparation process of large earthquakes (Zhao
et al., 1990; Zhao and Qian, 1994; Tang et al., 1998; Tokunaga, 1999; Manga et al., 2003).
So far, many reports indicated that GDV could be affected by large earthquakes (e.g.,
Duma and Ruzhin, 2003; Liu et al., 2006a; Han et al., 2009). In previous studies, the ratio
of GDV ranges between a target station and a reference station has been proved to be an
effective parameter for earthquake monitoring (Liu et al., 2006a; Chen et al., 2010; Xu et
al., 2013). This analysis focuses on the long-term variation (GDV) and is particularly
useful for low sampling rate data. Following the previous study of Han et al. (2015), we
chose KAK station as a reference station. The ratio of GDV ranges between the KAK
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station and other stations listed in Table.1 was analyzed. As the anomaly was detected in
the Z component in the previous studies (Xu et al., 2013; Han et al. 2015), here we
focused on the results of the Z component. The data processing procedures are explained
below.
First, the outliers of unnaturally large or low values in the geomagnetic data were
removed by using the threshold of annual median ± 300 nT. To minimize the influences
of spike noises, a ‘db5’ wavelet filter has been applied to the original data. The details of
the wavelet filter could be found in Han et al. (2011) and Hattori et al. (2013a, b). We
removed short period signals in the first 5 levels and used the remained signals with the
periods greater than 64 minutes. The diurnal variation range of the Z component (ΔZ)
was calculated by subtracting the minimum value from the maximum value of
Second, the ratio of daily range between KAK and a target station was computed. The
variations of daily ratios contain clear seasonal changes which consist of obvious annual
and semiannual periods (Han et al., 2015). In order to remove the seasonal variations, the
‘db5’ wavelet filter was employed again, and we only used the signals in the first 6 levels
(periods less than 128 days). The ratio in Z component after removing the seasonal
Third, the average value of the ratio Rz' in the 15-day backward running window was
we excluded the data of Rz' when there were one or more Kp indices greater than 5 during
6
the day and calculated the 15-day average. The result was denoted by Rz*. Here we chose
the 15-day window because it has been frequently used to obtain a reliable background
variation in previous ionosphere studies (Liu et al., 2006b; Kon et al., 2011).
The above data analysis method is the same as those in Xu et al. (2013) and Han et al.
(2015), except performing the 15-day running window. More details about data analysis
can be found in the two previous studies. The data of each station listed in Table1 have
been analyzed. To compare the results of different stations, the Rz* value then is
3. Results
Fig. 2 shows the results of normalized Rz* at the ESA and MIZ stations in the Tohoku
area. The MIZ station is about 20 km southwest to the ESA station. In Figs. 2(a) and (b),
the variations of Rz* are quite similar. Both show a unique enhancement exceeding the 4σ
statistical threshold in the beginning of the year 2011, about two months before the
Tohoku earthquake. Fig. 2(c) gives the number of non-moderate-strong storm days
employed for calculation in the 15-day window. Fig. 2(d) presents the variation of Kp
index over the 16 years from 1997 to 2012. The values of Kp index are normal when the
anomaly appears. Hence, the unique anomaly derived from a 16 years background is
unlikely related to the variation of Kp index. Moreover, both ESA and MIZ show clear
anomalies at the same time, suggesting that the anomaly may not be resulted from
observation system error or artificial noises. To find out whether the anomaly is a
regional phenomenon, the Rz* values in other regions of Japan have been investigated.
Fig. 3 shows variations of the normalized Rz* during 2010-2012 in the different
7
regions of Japan: (a) and (b) show the results of the MMB and YOK stations to the north
of the epicenter, respectively; (c) and (d) indicate the results of the ESA and MIZ stations
in the Tohoku region close to the epicenter, respectively; (e) and (f) present the results of
the TTK and KNY stations to the south of the epicenter, respectively. A green vertical line
indicates the time of the Tohoku earthquake. Only the ESA and MIZ stations in the
Tohoku region show the anomaly. Stations in other regions do not present anomalous
In order to clarify the spatial characteristics of the anomaly before the Tohoku
earthquake, we plot normalized Rz* of each station on January 18, 2011 when anomalies
arise in the ESA and MIZ stations. Fig. 4 demonstrates the result of spatial distribution.
The black triangles represent the geomagnetic stations. The Rz* values are interpolated
using adjustable tension continuous curvature surface gridding algorithm based on the
GMT software (Wessel and Smith, 1991). In Fig. 4, only the Tohoku area shows
anomalies, indicating a good agreement between the location of the anomaly and the
4. Interpretation
A large number of preseismic phenomena have been reported for the Tohoku
quiescence in rupture region started about 23 years before the Tohoku earthquake. Huang
and Ding (2012) also demonstrated clear seismic quiescence between the year 2006 and
Nanjo et al. (2012) claimed a pronounced decade-scale decrease in b value before the
8
earthquake. Kato et al. (2012) analyzed the foreshock sequence and found that slow slip
transients propagating to the initial rupture point. Ito et al. (2013) found two episodic
slow slip events prior to the Tohoku earthquake. The later slip event was almost the same
place as the Mw 9.0 epicenter. Chen et al. (2014) demonstrated crustal movement
changes about two months before the event. Recently, Orihara et al. (2014) and Hattori et
al. (2014) reported preseismic changes of groundwater level and GPS surface motions in
the Tohoku area, respectively. The groundwater well and GPS stations are quite close to
the ESA and MIZ geomagnetic stations, providing an excellent opportunity to investigate
Fig. 5(a) shows the locations of Goyo groundwater well (black square), No. 960546
GPS station (purple dot), and the ESA and MIZ stations (blue triangles). The Goyo well
is a confined well of a depth 2 km. The distance between the GPS station and the
groundwater well is about 10 km. The East-West component data of the GPS station is
given in Fig. 5(b), where the east direction is plus. In Fig. 5(b), the red line estimated by
the least square method represents the trend of motion at the GPS station (Hattori et al.,
2014). The trend changes from westward to eastward in the end of January, 2011. The
groundwater level of the Goyo well is shown in Fig. 5(c) (modified from Orihara et al.,
2014). There is a clear drop in groundwater level at the end of December, 2010, about
three months before the Tohoku earthquake. Taking into account the results shown in
Fig.2, three different kinds of anomalies derived from independent observations arise
closely in a short time span prior to the mega earthquake. Is this just a coincidence, or is
Seismologists have proposed the earthquake generation cycle which consists of the
9
following four elements (Hashimoto and Matsu’ura, 2002): (I) Tectonic loading due to
relative plate motion; (II) Quasi-static rupture nucleation; (III) Dynamic rupture
occurrence; (IV) Stress redistribution and fault strength recovery. In the element (II),
decoupling and possible pre-slip may occur on the plate boundary (Shibazaki and
Matsu'ura, 1992; Ruiz et al., 2014). Based on this hypothesis, a physical model for the
pre-earthquake phenomena of the Tohoku event has been proposed. Fig. 6 shows a
schematic of the mechanism modified from Orihara et al. (2014). In the Tohoku region,
the Pacific plate (PAC) subducts the North American Plate (NAM) from east to west at a
velocity of about 11 cm/year (Taira, 2001). When the stress approaches a critical stage,
decoupling and precursory slow slip may start around the plate boundary. This is the first
step of the preseismic phenomena as shown in Fig. 6(a). The pre-slip partially releases
the stress and changes the strain in the crust of the NAM plate. As a result, in the second
step as shown in Fig. 6(b), ground expansion and confined groundwater drop can be
and consequently bring about modulation of GDV via induction effects (Draganov et al.
1991; Surkov 1999). The movements of groundwater can also create underground
currents and change magnetic fields via electrokinetic effect (Enomoto, 2012; Ren et al.,
2012, 2015, 2016; Zhang et al., 2013; Huang et al., 2015). Therefore, we detected clear
GDV anomalies in Figs. 2(a) and (b) when the groundwater level changed in Fig. 5(c). In
the third step as shown in Fig. 6(c), when the unconfined groundwater in the shallow well
flows into the confined water well (Orihara et al., 2014), the water level in the unconfined
well drops, leading to possible changes in effective stress and strain near the earth surface.
As claimed in Orihara et al. (2014), the unconfined ground water in the Shogen-ji temple
10
well (depth around 2 m, located about 10 km east to the Goyo well) dropped about one
month before the Tohoku earthquake. This is in good agreement with the trend change of
movements at the GPS station in Fig. 5(b), indicating the pre-earthquake information has
In order to illuminate the anomaly detected at the ESA and MIZ stations, Fig. 7 shows
the original record of geomagnetic data of the two and the KAK reference station in the
beginning of 2011. The corresponding AE, Kp, and Dst indices are also plotted for
reference. The space weather during the period is quiet, except for a slight storm on
January 7 (NOAA Space Weather Scale for geomagnetic storms). The anomaly are not
likely resulted from the slight storm, because (1) during the 16 years long period, there
are a number of slight storms, but only in January 2011 we could detect the anomaly; (2)
as seen in Fig. 7, the diurnal variation ranges of ESA and MIZ are clearly smaller than
usual from January 4 to January 14, indicating that the anomalous behavior of
geomagnetic fields appear not only on the slight storm day but also on the quiet days.
Therefore, the anomaly is probably not caused by global geomagnetic disturbances, but
induced by local ground activities. To understand this unique phenomenon, the generation
and various experiments and simulations have been conducted to understand the
mechanisms (Fenoglio et al., 1995; Yoshida, 2001; Yoshida and Ogawa, 2004; Freund et
al., 2006; Freund, 2011; Huang and Ikeya, 1998; Huang and Lin, 2010a, 2010b; Shinbrot
11
et al., 2012; Leeman et al., 2014). As discussed before, the induction effects and the
electrokinetic effects may be responsible for the anomalous changes of GDV. To clarify
which mechanism dominates the geomagnetic filed changes, some detailed data analysis
is required. The transfer function analysis that can monitor underground conductivities is
now on-going at the ESA and MIZ stations. The results are expected to provide a further
In Figs. 2(a) and (b), the Rz* almost exceeds the threshold in October, 2004. Besides
the anomalies arose before the Tohoku earthquake in the ESA and MIZ stations, there
were a few other anomalies not followed by any large earthquakes in the other stations
during the 16 years long period. These ‘false’ anomalies also appeared in other
observations. As seen in Figs. 5(b) and (c), there was a trend change in October, 2010 and
a clear water level drop in August, 2008, respectively. Anomalies in a single observation
can be created by many factors, and the earthquake is just a possible one. Generally, the
anomalous change of one single parameter may not be a sufficient condition for an
‘false’ anomalies and thus may be able to make better monitoring of the preparation stage
phenomena study.
term observations at 17 stations in Japan. The result shows a clear anomaly exceeding the
statistical threshold about 2 months before the mega event in both ESA and MIZ stations
in the Tohoku Region. Similar results could not be found in other regions of Japan at that
12
time. Spatial distributions of the ratios show a good agreement between the location of
the anomalies and the epicenter of the Mw 9.0 earthquake. These spatiotemporal results
are consistent with those obtained from other independent observations such as
phenomena may help to understand the preparation process of mega earthquakes in the
subduction zone.
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Geospatial
Information Authority of Japan (GSI) for providing geomagnetic data. The authors thank
the GSI for providing the F3 daily data of the GPS station. The geomagnetic indices were
downloaded from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism at Kyoto University. This
study is partially supported by Grand-in-Aids for Scientific Research of Japan Society for
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Figure caption
Fig. 1. Locations of the epicenter of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake (red star) and the
Fig. 2. Normalized 15-day backward running average (Rz*) with ±4σ thresholds shown
by red dashed lines at the ESA station (a) and the MIZ station (b). (c) The number of days
without moderate-strong magnetic storms in each 15-day window. (d) Kp index and
threshold of moderate-strong storm (a red line). A green vertical line indicates the time of
Fig. 3. Variations of Rz* during 2010-2012 in different regions of Japan. (a) The MMB
station in the Hokkaido Prefecture. (b) The YOK station in the Aomori Prefecture. (c)
The ESA station in the Tohoku Region. (d) The MIZ station in the Tohoku Region. (e)
The TTK station in the Kansai Region. (f) The KNY station in the Kyushu Region. Red
dashed lines represent the ±4σ thresholds. A green vertical line indicates the time of the
Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of Rz* on January 18, 2011. The red star indicates the epicenter
of the Tohoku earthquake. The black triangles represent the geomagnetic stations. The R z*
values are interpolated using adjustable tension continuous curvature surface gridding
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Fig. 5. (a) The locations of Goyo groundwater well (black square), No. 960546 GPS
station (purple dot), the ESA and MIZ stations (blue triangles), and the epicenter of the
Tohoku earthquake (red star). (b) The East-West directional movements at the GPS
station shown in (a), where the east direction is plus. The red line estimated by the least
square method represents the trend of motion at the GPS station (modified from Hattori et
al., 2014). (c) The groundwater level of the Goyo well shown in (a) (modified from
the subduction zone (modified from Orihara et al., 2014). (a) Step 1: decoupling on the
plate boundary and preseismic slow slip. (b) Step 2: Depression of confined groundwater
in the deep well and appearance of electromagnetic disturbance. (c) Step 3: Depression of
unconfined groundwater in the shallow well and alteration of the surface motion. Note
the GPS movement is related to a far reference point in the Eurasian Plate.
Fig. 7. The raw data of geomagnetic diurnal variations and the geomagnetic indices. (a)
The blue, green, and red lines show the data of the ESA, MIZ, and KAK stations,
respectively. (b) The AE indices. (c) The Kp indices. (d) The Dst indices.
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Figure6-1
Figure6-2
Figure6-3
Table 1. List of geomagnetic stations.
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Highlights:
A unique geomagnetic anomaly was detected at both ESA and MIZ stations.
The location of anomaly was consistent with the epicenter of the Mw 9.0 earthquake.
The anomaly was in good agreement with groundwater change and GPS surface motion.
The coupling effects among different pre-earthquake phenomena were discussed.
34