Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Fundamentals
of Financial
Modeling
Chapter 1:
What is Financial
Modeling?
Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling,
3rd Edition by Danielle Stein Fairhurst, Wiley
What is a financial model?
3
“
A financial model is a dynamic and
flexible structure that contains
financial input and supplies financial
output
4
Samples financial models:
● A business case that determines whether to go ahead
with a project.
● A five-year forecast showing profit and loss, cash flow,
and balance sheet.
● Pricing calculations to determine how much to bid for a
new tender.
● Investment analysis for a joint venture.
5
Spreadsheet Financial Model
● A medium used to create • More structured
a financial model • More dynamic
● A catch-all term for any • Uses relationships
type of information stored between variables to
in Excel, including a create a financial report
financial model • Contains hypothetical
● Static outcomes
● Shows actual historical
data
6
Types and Purposes of Financial
Models
● Risk management
○ A model that captures, tracks, and reports on project risks,
status, likelihood, impact, and mitigation.
7
Types and Purposes of Financial
Models
● Project planning
○ Models may be built to
monitor progress on projects,
including critical path
schedules and even Gantt
charts.
8
Types and Purposes of Financial
Models
● Key performance indicators
(KPIs) and benchmarking
○ Provides a clear and accurate
picture of organizational
performance, well-being, and
potential for growth.
9
Types and Purposes of Financial
Models
● Dashboards
○ The dashboard is a collection of different measures, which
are also often conveniently collated and displayed as
charts and tables.
10
Types and Purposes of Financial
Models
● Balanced scorecards
○ A scorecard will display
measures such as process
performance, market share,
or penetration, and learning
and skills development.
11
Evaluating Modelling Tools
Considerations in selecting a financial modeling tool:
● The output required from the model, based on who will use it
and the particular decisions to be made. Models is based on users
● The volume, complexity, type, and source of input data,
particularly relating to the number of interdependent variables
and the relationships between them.
● The complexity of calculations or processing of input to be
performed by the model.
12
Evaluating Modelling Tools
Considerations in selecting a financial modeling tool:
● The level of computer literacy of the users, as they should
ideally be able to manipulate the model without the assistance
of a specialist.
● The cost versus benefit set off for each modelling tool.
13
Tool Selection
Why Excel?
● No extra licences, costly implementation, or software download
is required.
● The software can be installed on almost any computer.
● Little training is needed, as most users have some familiarity
with the product
● It is a very flexible tool. If you can imagine it, you can probably
do it in Excel.
14
Tool Selection
Why Excel?
● Excel can report, model, and contrast virtually any data, from
any source, all in one report.
● Excel is commonly used across all industries, countries, and
organizations, meaning that the Excel skills you have are highly
transferable.
15
Advantages of Excel
● Excel is included in most basic Microsoft Office packages
(unlike Access, which often needs to be purchased separately),
and therefore comes as standard on most PCs.
● Excel is much more flexible than Access, and calculations are
much easier to perform.
● It is generally faster to build a solution in Excel than in Access.
16
Advantages of Excel
● Excel has a wider knowledge base among users, and many
people find it to be more intuitive.
● It is very easy to create flexible reports and charts in Excel.
● Excel can report, model, and contrast virtually any data, from
any source, all in one file.
● Excel easily performs calculations on more than one row of
data at a time, which Access has difficulty with.
17
Advantages of Access
● Access can handle much larger amounts of data: Excel is
limited to around 1.1 million rows and 16,384 columns. Excel's limit
● Access’s capability is much larger, and it also has a greater
memory storage capacity.
● Data is stored only once in Access, making work more
efficiently.
18
Advantages of Access
● Data can be entered into Access by more than one user at a
time.
● Access is good at crunching and manipulating large volumes of
data.
● Due to Access’s lack of flexibility, it is more difficult for users to
make errors.
19
Excel Add-Ins
● Add-ins are programs that add optional commands and
features to Excel.
● Can be used to perform a variety of tasks that assist in the
financial modelling process, such as:
○ Analysis ToolPak
■ powerful statistical and engineering functions not
commonly used in financial modelling
○ Solver
■ extremely useful but quite advanced tool for
calculating optimal values in financial modelling.
20
Excel Add-Ins
○ Audit tools
■ used to ensure the accuracy of data and calculations
within a spreadsheet or workbook.
○ Integration add-ins
■ allow information from the financial reporting system
to be transferred into Excel for further analysis, or
data stored in Excel to be transferred into the financial
reporting system
21
Financial Modelling Softwares
● Oracle Business Intelligence (BI) - software technologies,
applications, and practices for the collection, integration,
analysis, and presentation of business information
22
Financial Modelling Softwares
● Hyperion - provides financial consolidation and reporting that
enables rapid consolidation and reporting of financial results,
global regulatory requirements, reduction cost of compliance,
and deliver confidence in the numbers.
23
Financial Modelling Softwares
● Operis - an Excel add-in that saves time when developing and
auditing complex spreadsheets by assessing the model
structure and identifying errors.
24
Financial Modelling Softwares
● Quantrix - integrated modeling platform that enables users to make
better business decisions using a combination of best-in-class
modeling tools, simple “access anywhere” functionality, and
enterprise-class technology
25
Financial Modelling Softwares
● IBM Cognos - a web-based integrated business intelligence suite by
IBM. It provides a toolset for reporting, analytics, scorecarding, and
monitoring of events and metrics.
26
What skills do you need to be a
good financial modeller?
27
Financial Modeller Skills
● Spreadsheet and Technical Excel Skills
● Industry Knowledge
● Accounting Knowledge
● Business Knowledge
● Aesthetic Design Skills
● Communication and Language Skills
● Numeracy Skills
● Ability to Think Logically
28
Financial Modeller Skills
● Spreadsheet and Technical Excel Skills
○ The best financial model will always use the solution that
is the simplest tool to complete the task
29
Financial Modeler Skills
● Industry knowledge
○ It’s important to consult carefully with the subject matter
expert for the inputs, assumptions, and logic of the
financial model.
30
Financial Modeler Skills
● Accounting knowledge
○ You do not need to be an accountant to become a
financial modeller, but a good understanding of
accounting and knowledge of finance certainly helps
31
Financial Modeler Skills
● Business knowledge
○ Modellers should understand economic concepts
32
Financial Modeler Skills
● Aesthetic design skills
○ Models can become complex very quickly and without a
well-planned design, they can be unintelligible.
33
Financial Modeler Skills
● Communication and language skills
○ There is a surprising amount of human interaction
required for most financial modellers
34
Financial Modeler Skills
● Numeracy skills
○ Solid mathematical skills can be particularly useful in
error-checking and sense-checking.
○ Gut feel for differentiating between critical assumptions
that need further verification, and input that is
insignificant or immaterial to the model.
35
Financial Modeler Skills
● Ability to think logically
○ Modelling is often like programming, and complex logic
needs to be interpreted into the language of Excel so that
the program can understand and create the modeller’s
expected results.
○ Logic is also critical for model layout, design, and the use
of assumptions in calculations.
36
Chapter 2
Building a Model
Using Excel for Business and Financial modeling,
3rd Edition by Danielle Stein Fairhurst, Wiley
Practical Example # 1: Assumptions
Layout
● Let’s say you are creating a high-level 5-year forecast.
We’ve got 15,065 customers in 2020, and we are expecting
that number to increase by 5 percent every year.
38
Practical Example # 1: Assumptions
Layout
● Model Layout Option 1
39
Practical Example # 1: Assumptions
Layout
● Model Layout Option 2
40
Practical Example # 2: Summary
Categorization
● Let’s say you’re creating a pricing model for some
advertising products. You’ve got print ads and digital ads,
and these are both split into Display and Text Only.
41
Practical Example # 2: Summary
Categorization
● Model Layout Option 1
42
Practical Example # 2: Summary
Categorization
● Model Layout Option 2
43
The Golden Rules for Model Design
● Separate Inputs, Calculations, and Results, where
Possible
● Use Each Column for the Same Purpose
● Use One Formula per Row or Column
● Refer to the Left and Above
● Use Multiple Worksheets
● Include Documentation Sheets
44
Design Issues
● Four key issues to think about before you start a model:
1. Time series
2. Data collection
3. Model purpose
4. Model audience
45
Workbook Anatomy of a Model
When designing the layout and structure of the model,
include:
● A cover sheet
● Input and output locations
● Calculation organization
● Color coding
46
Workbook Anatomy of a Model
● Cover sheet - contains many details about the model,
such as:
○ A log of changes and updates to the model with date, author,
change details, and their impact on the output of the model
○ Flowchart of the model structure
○ Table of contents
47
Workbook Anatomy of a Model
● Cover sheet - contains many details about the model,
such as (cont):
○ Instructions on how to use the model
48
Workbook Anatomy of a Model
● Input sheet - the only place where hardcoded data is
permissible
● Output, summary, and scenario sheets – present the
final outcomes such as tables and used to generate
reports
● Calculation or workings sheets – ensure that the layout
and formatting are as consistent as possible across all
sheets.
● Error check sheet - contains links to all error checks in
the model. 49
Workbook Anatomy Issues
● Matters to consider when designing the layout and
structure of the model include:
○ A cover sheet
○ Input and output locations
○ Calculation organization
○ Colour coding
50
Color Coding
51
Model Layout Flowcharting
52
Practical Exercise: Model Design
Customer Support Pricing Model
● Let’s say for example that you are offering a customer
support option for an existing product. Your financial
model needs to answer the question: “How much should
we charge per customer per month for support?”
53
Practical Exercise: Model Design
Customer Support Pricing Model
● You have the following pieces of information:
○ You have 500 customers who you think will take up the support
offer.
○ We expect that each customer will make 10 calls per month.
○ It is expected to take 5 minutes to answer each call and resolve
their problem.
○ Staff normally answer calls for 6 hours a day on average, for 20
days per month. We are currently paying support centre staff $70k
per annum.
○ There are around $10k in fixed costs per annum.
○ We expect to make a 20 percent markup.
54
Practical Exercise:
Flowchart of Model
Calculations
55
Streamlined Version
● Model-building process for less formal projects
● Seven steps to the streamlined version are as follows:
○ Design the high-level structure
○ Design outputs: summaries, charts, and reports
○ Design inputs
○ Plan calculations by breaking larger problems into smaller ones
○ Finalise outputs
○ Design sensitivities and scenario analysis.
○ Document as you go.
56
The Team Version
● Model-building process for a more formal process
involving several modelers and stakeholders
● 12 steps split into two stages:
○ Planning stage
○ Building stage
57
The Team Version
Planning Stage
1. Scope out the project - Assess what needs to be done in order to
complete the model.
○ What is the purpose of the model?
○ Excel version
○ User friendliness
○ Data validation
○ Frequency of use
60
The Team Version
Planning Stage
5. Create a data collection plan – this needs to be carefully incorporated
into the project plan to ensure that the data used in the model is as
accurate as possible and received on time
○ Create a list of inputs that will be required and where they will be
sourced.
○ Follow best practices by linking to input cells, only enter data once, and always refer
to the original source’s cell where possible
○ Use name ranges in Excel to name single cell constants or tables of inputs
○ Build error checks wherever possible, and sense check and test for errors as you go.
63
The Team Version
Building Stage
7. Build calculations and workings
○ Build error checks wherever possible, and sense check and test for
errors as you go.
○ Double-check calculations
65
The Team Version
Building Stage
9. Peer and client review of the draft model
○ Get the team together, take a key input, and follow it through from beginning to end.
■ Are the assumptions and source data clearly driving the output?
66
The Team Version
Building Stage
10. Design sensitivities and scenario analysis
67
The Team Version
Building Stage
11. Formal model QA check – The model’s final QA testing process includes:
○ Stress testing the inputs with a wide range of values to check the innerworkings of the model
○ Check that Excel errors such as “#DIV/0!” have not been triggered
○ Check the sensitivity of outputs (dependent variables) to changes in the inputs (independent
variables).
○ Check all documentation for spelling, grammar, colour coding consistency, and presentation.
68
The Team Version
Building Stage
12. Maintain the model – maintenance and updating of the model.
69
Information Requests
● Incorporate tables for key data and make provisions for
executive sign off.
● Liaise at an early stage with the other parties about the
information requested and its purpose.
● Design the information request so that the data is provided in
the correct format by using import and export sheets.
● Design the data collection sheets such that once completed,
they can be fed directly into the model by copying and pasting
or using links.
● Make clear what is expected in terms of data quality. 70
Information Requests
● Provide a timeline that is sufficient for the parties to respond
to information requests
● Ensure consistency of information request templates with
previous templates
● Pre-fill information request documents with existing
information where available
● Protect the worksheets to prevent incorrect data entry or
deletion of rows and columns
71
Version Control Documentation
Accepted guidelines to follow when creating a new model
version:
● File names should end with a version number. For example:
72
Version Control Documentation
Accepted guidelines to follow when creating a new model version:
● Maintain a version log, including:
○ Description of changes
○ Description of changes clearly detailing each change that was made for that
version.
75
File Structure
● Project planning
○ All the details about where the data for the model came from.
● When you link to external files, make sure that you use named ranges.
● There should be no hardcoding except for input variables unless
referenced, or source data is listed, or it is otherwise blindingly obvious
where you got the number from.
● Never use a value within a formula. The only exceptions are those
things that are considered standard or commonly accepted and will not
change, such as:
○ 24 hours in a day
○ 7 days in a week
○ 60 minutes in an hour
Best Practice Principles of Modelling
LINKING, NOT HARDCODING
Best Practice Principles of Modelling
ENTER DATA ONLY ONCE
99
Linked Dynamic Text Assumptions
Practical Exercise 2 – Linked Dynamic Assumptions Documentation
Assumptions:
● Growth rate does not change over time
● Number of customers starts at 15,065 in 2021
100
Linked Dynamic Text Assumptions
Practical Exercise 2 – Linked Dynamic Assumptions Documentation
101
Linked Dynamic Text Assumptions
Practical Exercise 3
● Well-documented assumptions.
● Explanation of the functionality.
● Logical flow.
● Inputs and outputs, workings, and results are clear and easy to
find.
● Built-in error checks and input validation.
● Easy navigation.
103
What makes a good model?
USER-FRIENDLY FEATURES
104
What makes a good model?
STRUCTURAL FEATURES
105
Chapter 4:
Financial Modelling
Techniques
Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling,
3rd Edition by Danielle Stein Fairhurst, Wiley
Error Avoidance Strategies
Avoiding Simple Formula Errors
107
Error Avoidance Strategies
Avoiding Simple Formula Errors
● Stress Testing
○ Test the technical workings of the model by stress testing
it (i.e., varying the inputs to see how much the outputs
change)
● Avoiding Logic Errors
● Validate Your Assumptions
108
Error Avoidance Strategies
Avoiding Simple Formula Errors
109
Formula Lengths
How long should a formula be?
111
Formula Lengths
How long should a formula be?
● Sample
112
Linking to External Files
Why you should link to external files
113
Linking to External Files
Why you should use named ranges in external links
114
Linking to External Files
Dealing with links and potential errors they can cause
● If you have linked two files together, you should not start
moving either of the files around into other drives or
directories.
● If a file has been moved or had a name change, you can try to
amend this by using Edit Links
115
Linking to External Files
Dealing with links and potential errors they can cause
116
Linking to External Files
Linking Dos and Don’ts
117
Building Error Checks
Error-Check Exercise (Fig 4.10)
118
Building Error Checks
Error-Check Alerts
119
Building Error Checks
Avoid Error Displays in Formulas
120
Circular References
How to Fix Circular References
121
Circular References
Locating a Circular Reference
122
Circular References
Circular References in Interest Calculations
123
Circular References
How to avoid circular references
124
Circular References
Enabling iterative calculations
Go to Excel Options by
clicking the File tab and
then select Options and
click on the Formulas
category.
125
Circular References
Enabling iterative calculations
126