Professional Documents
Culture Documents
science and
technology plan
Cong Cao, Richard P. Suttmeier, and Denis Fred Simon
Cong Cao is a researcher at the University of Oregon in Eugene and at the State University of New York’s Neil D. Levin Graduate
Institute of International Relations and Commerce in New York City. Richard P. Suttmeier is a professor of political science at the Uni-
versity of Oregon. Denis Fred Simon is provost and vice president for academic affairs at the Levin Institute.
In January 2006, China initiated a 15-year “Medium- to in the number of invention patents granted to Chinese citi-
Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Tech- zens, and for Chinese-authored scientific papers to become
nology.” The MLP calls for China to become an “innovation- among the world’s most cited. In all likelihood, the MLP will
oriented society” by the year 2020, and a world leader in sci- have an important impact on the trajectory of Chinese de-
ence and technology (S&T) by 2050. It commits China to velopment; it thus warrants careful attention from the inter-
developing capabilities for “indigenous innovation” (zizhu national community.
chuangxin) and to leapfrog into leading positions in new sci- Preparation for the MLP began in 2003. At that time more
ence-based industries by the end of the plan period. Accord- than 2000 scientists, engineers, and corporate executives
ing to the MLP, China will invest 2.5% of its increasing gross were mobilized into a program of “strategic research” to
domestic product in R&D by 2020, up from 1.34% in 2005; identify critical problems and research opportunities in
raise the contributions to economic growth from technologi- 20 areas considered to be of central importance for China’s
cal advance to more than 60%; and limit its dependence on future. Box 1 lists those areas, which include advanced man-
imported technology to no more than 30%. The plan also calls ufacturing, agriculture, basic science, energy, human re-
for China to become one of the top five countries in the world sources, and national defense.
In contrast to earlier planning efforts, the preparations—
at least at the outset—were remarkably open. In particular,
Box 1. The 20 topics of strategic research in they included social scientists (mainly economists) and for-
China’s 15-year science plan eign scholars. Eventually, that openness gave way to a more
secretive process in which the bureaucracy massaged the re-
Agricultural science and technology ports of the 20 working groups, attempted to reach compro-
Basic science mises, and drafted the public version of the MLP. By most ac-
Conditions, platforms, and infrastructures for S&T counts, the drafting process was contentious and unusually
development drawn out. At one point, the onerous process of narrowing
Culture for innovation and S&T popularization the plan’s focus and setting priorities required direct inter-
Ecology, environment protection, and recycled economy vention by China’s premier, Wen Jiabao.
S&T
Energy, resources, and ocean S&T Technological problems
Human resources for S&T The MLP is remarkable in a variety of ways. It builds on im-
Input and management model S&T portant policy initiatives launched in the past 25 years, in-
Law and policies for S&T development cluding the 1995 commitment to strengthen the nation
Modern manufacturing development S&T through science, technology, and education and the more re-
Modern services industry S&T cent notion of empowering the nation through talent. Under
National defense S&T rubrics such as those, China has made great efforts in the past
Overall strategy for medium- to long-term S&T several years to advance its science and education. As figure 1
development shows, those efforts include increased expenditures on R&D,
Population and health S&T and they have led to growing numbers of scientists and
Public security S&T engineers engaged in R&D (figure 2) and increased enroll-
Regional innovation system ments in higher education (figure 3). Also, as evidenced by
S&T system reform and national innovation system new initiatives pertaining to intellectual property law, tech-
Strategic high technology and industrialization of high nology standards, and venture capital, the nation has begun
and new technology to take seriously the notion of technological innovation as a
Transportation S&T complex, systemic problem.
Urban development and urbanization S&T Despite the many signs of progress in China’s S&T, the
MLP comes at a time of serious concern about the nation’s de-
GERD/GDP (%)
200 1.0 since 1998, both in absolute terms
150 0.8 (purple histogram bars) and as a
percentage of the gross domestic
100 0.6
product (blue curve). Absolute
0.4
50 expenditures are given in renminbi:
0.2 1 US dollar is worth about
0 0 8.3 RMB. (Source: ref. 9.)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
YEAR
velopment. China’s leaders have pledged to make the nation trol over those areas may not serve China’s interests. Rather,
an “overall well-off society” (quanmian xiaokang shehui), with they work to serve the international leaders in innovation.
a per-capita income of $3000 by 2020, up from $1000 in 2002. Thus, the Chinese industrial economy of the 21st century
Achieving that goal will require continued rapid economic should, in this view, set its own standards and generate
growth. The leadership, however, is aware that the high- and incorporate its own IPR.1 Hence the emphasis on in-
speed growth of the past 25 years—with its overinvestment, digenous innovation and the need to create an innovation-
inefficient use of resources, and the devastating effect on the oriented society.
environment—cannot be sustained. The path to creating the Second, Chinese technological capabilities have been
overall well-off society will necessarily be characterized by failing to meet the nation’s needs in such areas as energy,
technological innovations supporting greater efficiency and water and resource utilization, environment protection, and
productivity, and institutional innovations supporting im- public health. The negative environmental consequences of
provements in governance—greater market discipline and 25 years of rapid economic growth cannot be overestimated.
integrity, less government corruption, and greater adminis- And continued environmental degradation over the next 15
trative accountability. years, such as may result from the controversial Three Gorges
The MLP addresses four critical problems in China’s sci- Dam shown in figure 4, would make a mockery of any claims
entific and technological development. First, despite the that an overall well-off society had been achieved—whether
country’s remarkable economic accomplishments, its record or not per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) targets are
of innovation in commercial technologies has been weak, reached. China’s quest for energy will only increase in the
even considering recent improvements in its patenting per- coming years and will require new conservation technolo-
formance. Instead, its dependence on foreign technology has gies, novel energy sources, and the procurement of more con-
grown consistently over the past 20 years. In part, that de- ventional energy supplies. In short, broad areas of social
pendence was a consequence of the state’s “market for tech- needs cannot possibly be managed without increasingly so-
nology” strategy, which was intended to entice multinational phisticated technology.
corporations to transfer technology in return for market op- Third, the technological challenges of providing for the
portunities. The policy, arguably, was quite successful in national defense furnish another powerful impetus for the
helping to make China the manufacturing center of the world initiation of the MLP. Despite China’s nuclear weapons and
and in stimulating the impressive rapid growth of China’s space achievements, its overall capability for defense-related
high-technology exports. technological innovation has, until recently, not been formi-
However, Chinese leaders have concluded that the pol- dable. As with civilian production technology, the modern-
icy may have run its course. It has become increasingly ob- ization of Chinese military technology has largely depended
vious to them that those who own the intellectual property, on imports from abroad. China has come to realize the im-
and who control technical standards, enjoy privileged posi- portance of dual-use technologies, which can be utilized for
tions in, and profit most from, international production net- peaceful purposes or in 21st-century high-technology war-
works. In addition, as a result of continued conflicts with the fare, and the country has begun to exploit the opportunities
US and other countries over intellectual property rights and that dual use offers. But imported dual-use technology, es-
standards, China has concluded that current patterns of con- pecially more sophisticated know-how, is subject to export
restrictions—above all from the US. Hence, foreign suppliers (liangdan yixing) programs. The 12-year plan was character-
would be an unreliable source of critical technologies; again, ized by the central government’s identification of priority
the need for indigenous innovation seems self-evident. projects and the mobilization of resources to work on them.
The same features characterize the MLP as well.
Science challenges
The fourth critical problem addressed by the MLP is the state Structure and content
of Chinese science. As with the nation’s technology, Chinese The MLP consists of a number of components. The first of
science has contained its disappointments. Despite the them sets out guidelines and principles derived from the ob-
swelling ranks of research personnel and increasingly gener- jectives of having S&T lead future economic development.
ous funding, the research system’s performance has not lived One of those principles, zizhu chuangxin or indigenous inno-
up to expectations. Many of China’s best and brightest have vation, has led to considerable confusion inside China and
sought career opportunities abroad, and despite an array of abroad. In its ambiguity—zizhu chuangxin may also be trans-
incentives offered by various national and local entities, lated as independent or homegrown innovation—it has been
China has had difficulty attracting them back. True, some construed by some as a regression to the self-defeating
overseas-based Chinese scientists are concerned about the techno-nationalist notions of self-reliance (zili gengsheng)
development of S&T in their native country and have con- from the Maoist period, during which Chinese research and
tributed in various ways. But the way overseas Chinese tal- innovation were largely cut off from the international com-
ent is used at home has occasionally been controversial. In munity and consequently were significantly retarded.
some cases, the high salaries and material incentives used for The continuous debates, inside and outside the country,
recruitment to Chinese institutions have been abused. Re- over the meaning of the term led one senior official from the
searchers have enjoyed the salaries without fulfilling the ob- Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) to suggest that
ligations of appointments, while their employing institutions it might be best simply to talk about innovation without any
remained satisfied to use the names and publications of those attached modifiers. In explicating the concept, however, the
“star scientists” to improve their evaluations and qualify for MLP points to zizhu chuangxin as having three components:
increased funding.2 genuinely original innovation; integrated innovation, the fus-
Simply stated, quantitative gains in Chinese research ing together of existing technologies in new ways; and “re-
productivity have not always been matched by qualitative innovation,” which involves the assimilation and improve-
gains. The resources committed to scientific research have, in ment of imported technologies.
fact, led to rapid growth of Chinese-authored papers in Sci- A second component of the MLP identifies the plan’s pri-
ence Citation Index–cataloged journals, but their contribution ority areas and programs. As seen in box 2, those include 11
as measured by citations has been disappointing.3 China has broad key areas pertaining to national needs and 8 areas
yet to establish a research tradition that is both conducive to of frontier technology. Within those areas, the MLP identifies
creative achievements and tolerant of creative failures. Sci- a series of priority projects. For instance, under the new-
entists have often been preoccupied with quick outcomes and materials area of frontier technology, the plan includes work
immediate returns, and brain drain has slowed the develop- on smart materials, high-temperature superconducting tech-
ment of high-level scientific leadership. Research is too often nology, and energy-efficient materials.
derivative in nature, which wastes resources and discourages In addition to priority areas, the MLP identifies a series
creativity and independent thinking. Scientific misconduct of of governmentally funded, conceived, and directed
various types is seemingly widespread and often covered up “megaprojects” in engineering and science (also listed in
and protected. box 2). As discussed further below, those programs have been
Thus, when China began preparations for the MLP in a controversial aspect of the MLP. Their inclusion, though, re-
2003, it did so from a position of considerable scientific and flects the legacy of science planning in China, especially the
technological progress—but progress filled with soft spots in continuing influence of the liangdan yixing programs on Chi-
areas of critical national need. As the importance of science nese thinking about S&T planning. The MLP also calls for an
and innovation for 21st-century China gained high-level po- expansion of basic research, to include development of new
litical attention, the Chinese turned to their legacy of science disciplines and interdisciplinary areas, science frontiers, and
planning as the way to move toward the nation’s future as- fundamental research in support of major national strategies.
pirations. In particular, they were inspired by the most cele- Although agriculture, energy, the environment, health,
brated of the past science plans, the 12-year plan (1956–67), and resources receive unprecedented attention in the MLP,
which helped lay the foundation for modern science in the physical sciences underlie many priority areas such as
China. Included among the achievements of that earlier plan new materials. Most of the 13 engineering megaprojects are
were China’s successes in its nuclear-weapons and space directly related to the physical sciences; the program in core