Global Sales and Production Around The World Webinar - May 2023

Webinar
Around the World

Global Sales and Production Forecast
Colin Couchman, Research and Analysis Executive Director, colin.couchman@ihsmarkit.com

Mark Fulthorpe, Research and Analysis Executive Director, mark.fulthorpe@ihsmarkit.com
May 17 2023
© 2023 S&P Global.

Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.
Around the World Global Sales and Production Webinar May 2023
Questions and Answers
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© 2023 S&P Global. 2

Agenda
Macroeconomic Outlook
Light Vehicle Sales Outlook
Light Vehicle Production Outlook
Q&A

World Economic Growth Rates

The odds of a “soft landing” continue to improve although significant risks remain on horizon
World Economic Growth Rates

2022 2023 2024 Avg. 2025-2030
World USA Brazil Mexico UK Eurozone India China Japan South Korea
8.00
7.00 6.72
6.1
6.00 6.12
5.3
5.00 4.67
5.2 5.5
4.10
4.00 3.56
3.35
3.06 3.00 3.06 3.00
3.00 2.6 2.58 2.6
2.2 2.4 2.27
2.81 2.06 1.98
2.00 1.74
1.2 1.6 2.0 1.39 1.51
1.2
2.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.88 1.6
1.00 0.6
0.2 1.1 1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00

World Economic Overview: Inflation & Unemployment Rates

Inflation has likely peaked and will slow markedly in 2023 and 2024.
World Inflation Rates (Q1 2019-Q4 2023)

USA Brazil Mexico UK Eurozone India China Japan South Korea
16.00
14.00 2023-Q4
12.00
10.00
8.00
5.0 5.0 5.4
6.00
3.3 3.3 3.2 2.6
4.00 2.2 1.8
2.00
0.00
-2.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
8.8 9.4
10.00
8.00 6.6
6.00 4.9
3.8 4.1 3.5
3.4
4.00 2.6
2.00
0.00
World Unemployment Rates (Q1 2019 – Q4 2023)

World Economic IHS Markit manufacturing PMI®

Mixed outlook as manufacturing continues to improve in US/Japan; decline in China/Eurozone
Purchasing Managers’ Index® data

65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
*Data through April 2023
25.0
Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22 Jan/23
United States Eurozone Mainland China Japan

Agenda
Light Vehicle Sales Outlook – including bonus SBPT Summary
Q&A

Global sales overview

Gloomy trio of anniversaries loom over 2023 outlook—3 years of COVID, 2 years of semiconductor disruption & 1 year of Russia-Ukraine
war impacts—forecast reflects banking sector risks & likely higher-for-longer interest rate cycle
▼ 2023 outlook—autos still facing supply chain
Global Sales
challenges & transition to demand constraints esp.
100 10% weak economic momentum—also banking fears could
90.9 92.3
trim lending prospects (SVB “hangover”)
90 87.8
▼ China rebalancing on COVID unlocking, still-weak
83.3
80.3 78.9 5% economy & ongoing stimulus—pent-up demand still in
80 77.2 5%
6% play but year-to-date patchy—some concerns on
4% 3% China 6b changeover destocking deadline
70 ▼ USA & Europe—demand follows supply—logistics
2% 0%
issues still in play (e.g. driver shortages). US, EU &
60
Millions
-2%
UK should swerve technical recessions—but
economics remain weak esp. inflation/interest rates.
50 -5% Europe energy supply & prices better (“mild winter”)
▼ Car prices higher than expected—might not fall back
40 as market mix normalises as chip crisis eases—
-10% ongoing pressure on affordability & demand level
30 (some relief as key EV raw material prices fall back)
▲ Pent-up demand remains but headwinds risk release
20 ▲ Robust outlook for South Asia (esp. India) & Middle
-14% -15%
East (esp. oil/LNG) & Mexico upgrade
10 ▲ China fully reopen but COVID still in play around the
world—risk of virus waves / mutations remains
0 -20% ▲ Wildcards—China 6b RDE, Europe Euro7, US IRA &
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 EV “price war” (price war not automatic benefit—could
Global Sales Year over Year Change mean “wait-and-see” buyers)
Source: S&P Global Mobility

Global sales overview

2023 cautious recovery – global increase of new vehicle sales by 5.6% over 2022 (+4.4m units)
EUROPE
7.4%
----------------- 8.3% MAINLAND
1.2m ----------------- CHINA
1.2m
NORTH 4.6%
AMERICA ----------------- 7.4%
-----------------
1.1m
0.4% 431k
-----------------
15k JAPAN/
2.6% SOUTH KOREA
3.0% MIDDLE EAST/ -----------------
----------------- 235k
AFRICA
115k
SOUTH
Percentage SOUTH ASIA
Growth YoY AMERICA
2023 vs 2022
-----------------
Volume Delta
YoY

Passenger Car & Pickup Sales Forecast & Electrification Trends by Region
USA EU30 Mainland China

16.4* 14.9* 29.6
16.0 15.7 15.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 27.6
24.6
13.3
10.7 21.1* 21.3
99.9% 82.2%
70.6% 63.7%
69.9%
38.4%
46.2% 28.8% 20.9%
4.1%
5.7%
17.4% 2.3% 14.2% 2019 2022 2025 2030 2035
1.4%
2019 2022 2025 2030 2035
2019 2022 2025 2030 2035 BEV PHEV HEV
BEV PHEV HEV
BEV PHEV HEV MHEV ICE Other
MHEV ICE Other
MHEV ICE Other
Source: 2023 S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Sales-Based Powertrain Forecast (SBPT)
Note: including passenger cars, pickups / light trucks but excluding vans
© 2023 S&P Global. 10
Mainland China sales overview

Subpar April sales with lingering weak consumer confidence
Yearly Sales
Monthly Sales Evolution
30 27.56 28.24 6.0%
Millions
26.47 3,000 68% 80%

25.23
Thousands
25 23.67 23.90 24.11 4.0%
4.9%
4.7% 2,500 60%
4.1%
20 2.5% 2.0% 40%
2,000
36%
1.0% 0.9%
24% 22% 20%
15 0.0% 7% 10%
1,500 0%
0%
10 -2.0% -5%
1,000 -8% -12% -3%
-20%
-40%
5 -4.0% 500 -40%
-4.6%
0 -6.0% 0 -60%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Evolution 2022 2023 Actuals
Mainland China Sales Year over Year Change
2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ 2023 GDP forecast upgraded to 5.5% with recovery in service sector and ▼ Destocking of China 6b non-RDE vehicles—estimated 1m units (May 9)
export in Q1 (GDP growth 4.5% y/y vs 2.9% y/y in 2022Q4) could slow down production/wholesale traction as China 6b RDE (real drive
▲ NEV share ~29.5% of vehicles in Apr. ‘23 CAAM featuring fast rise in emission) comes into effect for vehicles produced from July 1, 2023
sales particularly from BYD/Tesla/Aion ▼ National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) consumer sentiment survey still points
▲ Government announced grace period for sales of China 6b non-RDE
to negative indexes of employment confidence and consumer willingness to
from Jul 1 to Dec, 2023
▲ 31 cities and 9 provinces (as of May 15, 2023) will carry on with vehicle spend in March although sentiment has been improving from Dec 2022
incentives policies in Q2 ▼ Risks remain for tensions around global trade & geopolitics (USA IRA)
© 2023 S&P Global. 11

USA sales overview

Sales continue unsteady progress, economic risks shifting to later in second half of 2023 into 2024
Yearly Sales
18 16.52 16.64 10.0% 1,600 16%
14%
15.70
16 15.08 14.79 14%
14.59 6.1% 5.0%
1,400
13.88
14 6.5% 1,200 12%
3.4% 5.2%
Thousands
12 0.0% 9% 10% 10%
0.7% 1,000 9% 8%
Millions
9%
10 6%
7% 8%
-5.0% 800 5%
8
6%
600 3%
-7.9%
4%
6 -10.0%
400 2%
4 0%
-15.0% 200 0%
-14.6% -1%
2
0 -2%
0 -20.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 YoY Evolution 2022 2023 Actuals
USA Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ April 23 sales pace (15.9M SAAR), bumped up again – fleet sales rising, ▼ Baseline US economic outlook still reflects below trend GDP growth
retail sales remaining steady quarters later in 2023, and e downside risks to later in 2023 into 2024
▲ Inventory levels continue to be pressured – fell for first time in eight ▼ Vehicle "affordability" still a large headwind to new vehicle market – won't
months, but should continue progress be something that can be corrected in a quick manner – credit tightening
▲ Through Q1 EV new regs up 63% or 97,500 units year-over-year. PHEV newest wrinkle, 2023 volume lowered approx 150K to 14.8M in April
sales up 33% or 14,000 units 2023 forecast release
© 2023 S&P Global. 12

Canada sales overview

Latest economic new more positive than negative, but auto sales growth remains slow
Yearly Sales
2.5 7.5%
8.3% 10.0% 180 Monthly Sales Evolution 30%
6.8%
160 25%
6.4% 1.94 5.0%
2 1.89 140 25%
1.77 2.9% 20%
1.66 1.63 0.0% 120
1.56 1.52
Thousands
1.5 100 15%
Millions
-5.0% 11%
-8.4% 80 10%
8% 12% 10%
-10.0% 60
1 5% 8%
5%
4% 5%
3%
-15.0% 40
20 0%
0.5
-1% 0%
-18.8% -20.0%
0 -5%
0 -25.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Canada Sales Year over Year Change YoY Evolution 2022 2023 Actuals
▲ Reports for April reflect sluggishness in market, total volume down from ▼ Same story as elsewhere in region – limited new vehicle inventory and
March level as market awaits "seasonal" spring volume bounce rising consumer headwinds contributing to slow growth expectations,
▲ BEV/PHEV share in 2022 increased to 8.9%, up from 5.6% in 2021 – although slight upgrade to annual volumes compared to March forecast
continued dynamic growth for electrification expected – Eletrified sales release
up over 15% in Q1 ▼ Consumer headwinds remain prevalent
▲ Incoming economic data relatively positive, but usual growth engines
(housing, consumers) are expected to slow or retreat going forward
© 2023 S&P Global. 13

Mexico sales overview

April SAAR tops 1.3 million units for the first time since February 2020!
Yearly Sales
1.6 30.0%
1.39 140 30%
1.32 1.36 28% 28%
1.4 1.28 20.0%
120 23% 25%
1.2 17.9%
7.6%
1.09 10.0%
1.01 100
1 0.95 20%
Millions
6.3%
Thousands
3.1% 20%
2.6%
0.0% 80 21% 19%
3.0% 19% 19% 18%
0.8 15%
-10.0% 60 13%
0.6
10%
-20.0% 40 8%
0.4
20 2% 5%
0.2 -30.0%
-28.1%
0 0%
0 -40.0%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Mexico Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ OEMs continue to see strong (unsatisfied) consumer demand ▼ Inventory constraint will likely limit sales in 2023 for traditional players
▲ Presence of Chinese brands, who also have product availability, is ▼ Traditional brands are losing share due to lack of inventory
allowing for the market to gain momentum, of importance is Chery/Chirey ▼ Currency devaluation has pushed most vehicles north of 200,000 MXP
which just reported sales. ▼ Inflation alongside decelerating US economy could weigh on recovery of
▲ April closed the month with nearly 98,000 units, roughly 1.36 million unit sales
SAAR, the strongest since before the pandemic began ▼ Higher financing rates
▲ Several Chinese OEMs are expected to begin sales in H2
© 2023 S&P Global. 14

Brazil sales overview

April sales grow by 11% to 152,000 units
Yearly Sales
3 15.0%
Millions
2.67 250 40%

9.1% 2.51 10.0%
Thousands
2.5 2.33 38%
7.5%
35%
2.14 5.0%
1.98 8.9%
6.8% 200 30%
1.96 1.96
2 0.0%
1.2% 25%
-1.1% -5.0% 150
1.5 20%
-10.0% 15%
100 12% 14%
1 -15.0% 10% 10%
8% 12%
8% 5%
4% 5%
-20.0% 50 3% 1%
0.5
-25.0% 0%
0%
0 -26.6%
-30.0%
0 -5%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Brazil Sales Year over Year Change
▲ Product mix is very strong, with consumer favoring SUVs and Pickups. ▼ Weaker consumer confidence
Many of them have at least a couple months wait list ▼ Inventory levels remain weak
▲ Import vehicles remain strong despite significant uptick in pricing due to ▼ Significant uptick in car prices, average car price ~100,000 BRL
devaluation, thus indicating strong (affluent) consumer interest ▼ Much higher financing rates
▲ OEMs are slowly restarting plants in Brazil ▼ Political/social tension weighing on consumers
▲ Brazil's SAAR closed at 2.1 million units in April after averaging 1.9
million units in January and February
© 2023 S&P Global. 15

Western + Central Europe sales overview

Q2 started with a solid 13% growth YOY, April rebound as supply chain gradually improving—economic conditions remain challenging
Yearly Sales
18 15.0%
Millions
1,800 25%
15.55
Thousands
16 15.30 15.42 10.0% 21%
13.84 13.86 14.06 1,600 20%
8.8% 16%
14 12.99 8.2% 1.6%
5.0% 1,400 15%
11% 15%
12 0.0% 10%
1,200 13%
9% 10%
0.2% 11%
-0.9%
10 -5.0% 1,000 1%
7% 1% 5%
8 -6.2% -10.0% 800 0%
6 -15.0% 600 -5%
4 -20.0%
400 -10%
200 -15% -15%
2 -23.6%
-25.0%
0 -20%
Western + Central Europe Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Given lower energy-related risks and recent improvements in leading ▼ Domestic demand conditions remain weak
indicators, we have revised up our near-term real GDP forecasts. ▼ Current sales running rate is far below pre-pandemic levels in all the
▲ High pent-up demand and orders will support the recovery process major European markets, and against a particularly low base comparison
▲ Attractive deals/tax reliefs for customers and xEV push to the market – in April 2022.
better CO2. ▼ Expected semiconductor disruption extended into 2023 and even high
▲ Launch of Chinese brands like BYD & MG lower the entry prices for stocks draining (longer waiting periods starving demand recovery)
BEVs and increase competition& price pressure on traditional OEMs ▼ Stricter CO2 regulations pressuring purchase prices
Source: S&P Global Mobility ▼ Demand drop expected when incentive programs expire (vary by market)
© 2023 S&P Global. 16

Germany sales overview

Market rises again in April from low base—OEMs feeding order backlogs, improved supply chain & pent-up demand helping
Yearly Sales
3.5 3.25 3.28 10.0%
3.19
Millions
3.17
3.07 400 30%
Thousands
3 2.89 2.89 27%
5.0% 24% 25%
6.4% 5.9% 350 20%
0.9% 16% 17%
2.5 300 12%
0.0% 6% 8%
10%
3%
2
-0.3% 250
0%
-3.4% -5.0% 200 -2%
1.5 -4% -10%
150
-10.0%
1 -9.3%
100 -20%
0.5 -15.0% 50 -30%

-35%
0 -20.0%
0 -40%
-18.6%
Germany Sales Year over Year Change
▲ The setback to the post-pandemic economic recovery, triggered by the ▼ Manufacturing sector will experience a setback owing to far-reaching
Russia-Ukraine war, is turning out to be much milder than feared. sanctions on Russia and the geopolitical uncertainty the war in Ukraine
▲ High number of unfilled orders – should fuel the recovery path has triggered (supply chain and energy costs)
▲ Strong domestic product activity (esp. BEV + PHEV) Combined ▼ Stimulus programs not last forever (PHEV incentives expired in Dec 2022,
BEV/PHEV PVs ~195k for the first four months of 2023 (20% share) from 2023 gradually reduced incentives for BEVs)
▲ Governmental BEV incentives now capped.(€2.1bn in 23 & €1.3bn in 24) ▼ Average New Car price increased by 13% in 2022. -> renewals
▲ Stabilised supply likely to create better deals/rebates esp. In Q4 2023. postponed
© 2023 S&P Global. 17

UK sales overview
April sales improved after disappointing March—market playing catch-up still held back by patchy supply
Yearly Sales
3 20.0%
Millions
14.1% 450 40%

2.59
Thousands
13.1% 15.0% 36%
2.45 2.52
2.5 400 35%
10.0%
2.15 2.5% 350 30%
2.01 5.0% 18%
1.93 1.90 25%
2 300 22%
4.1%
3.1% 0.0% 23%
20%
-5.0% 250
1.5 16% 14% 15%
-5.3% -10.0% 200 12%
10% 10%
-15.0% 150
1 1% 5%
-20.0% 100 0%
0.5 -25.0% 0%
50 -3% -4% -5%
-28.1%
-30.0%
0 -10%
UK Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ April 2023 new car regs posted 9 th consecutive month of growth-esp fleet ▼ Recovery drags include vehicle shortages, long wait times & consumer
▲ YTD4 2023 combined BEV/PHEV PVs ~137k / +21% (22% share) caution. UK just avoids technical recession but “economic scarring”
BEV 15% share easily outsold diesel (8% share) (PHEVs grew +12%) impacts could limit mid-term upside (COVID & Brexit)
▲ March 2023 UK Budget—reassuringly boring—”confidence & stability” ▼ Lackluster economic outlook & cost-of-living crisis—policy refocus
▲ UK “copy/paste” EU CO2 targets & also follows Euro7 rules/timetable tax U-turns / energy support package ending / EV car taxes from ‘25
▲ UK ZEV mandates 2024 PV 22% rising to 80% in ‘30 & 100% for ‘35* ▼ Interest rate spike trims autos recovery prospects—destroyed demand
▲ ICE-ban ~2030* / hybrid-ban end-2035* & net zero 2050 (*consultation) ▼ Ongoing concerns on weak incoming registrations & lending caution
© 2023 S&P Global. 18

France sales overview

Q2 started with +18.8% supported again by deliveries from previous year – H2 2023 could show lower dynamism due to lack of orders
Yearly Sales
2.5 15.0%
Millions
2.20 2.21 300 30%
Thousands
2.05 2.09 2.09 10.0%
1.99 20% 25% 25%
2 1.88 10.5% 5.0% 250
6.2% 0.5%
20%
1.9% 0.0% 200 15%
1.5 6%
-5.0% 6% 6% 10% 4% 11% 10%
150 5%
-5.3% -10.0% 5%
1
-10.2% -15.0% 100 0%
-20.0% -7%
-5% -5%
0.5 50 -9%
-10%
-25.0%
-23.8%
0 -15%
France Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ First 4 months of 2023 posted an increase of +13.3% thanks to many ▼ Fewer orders since start of 2023 (-22.2% in April versus 2022) → will
deliveries from orders made in 2022. weight on H2 2023 registrations.
▲ BEVs reached already 14.8% of the new car market in 2023. ▼ Russia's invasion in Ukraine, the component supply issue + inflation
▲ BEV bonus to remain with 5.000 euros in 2023. expected and long wait time for new car deliveries → growth in the short
▲ E. Macron announced half of the poorest households will get 7.000 euros term will remain limited.
of BEV bonus in 2023 + BEV leasing at 100 euros/month for poorest ▼ New car renewals will be postponed or switched to used car market
households will be launch mid of 2023 with deliveries beginning of 2024. ▼ Mid-term forecast was downgraded due to potential demand destruction
© 2023 S&P Global. 19

Italy sales overview

Encouraging results in January to April 2023, but still far from pre-Covid levels – BEV development unsatisfactory, parc becomes obsolete
Yearly Sales Monthly Sales Evolution

2 10.0%
Millions
1.73 1.78 1.75 200 35%
Thousands
1.8 1.64 1.60 2.7% 5.0% 180 28% 30%
1.6 1.54 8.2%
6.6%
1.48 8.2% 160 25%
0.0% 18% 15%
1.4 140 26% 20%
1.2 -1.4% -5.0% 17% 15%
120
-10.0% 10%
1 -10.0% 100 3%
1% 2%
1% 0% 5%
0.8 80
-15.0% 0%
0.6 60 -5%
-20.0% 40
0.4 -10%
-25.0% 20 -15%
0.2 -11% -16%
-26.8%
0 -20%
0 -30.0%
Italy Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Triennial incentives plan 2022-24 with € 615 million budget but still ▼ At the end of Feb. 2023, all available incentives in the ICE class (CO 2
modest results in terms of more BEV share: in April BEV sales are 41.8% emissions 61-135 g/km) were already sold out, while, on May 15 th,
higher (YTD), but share is 3.7% (only 0.4 percent points higher) BEVs incentives were exploited to 32.0%, and PHEVs to only 10.0%
▲ In Jan.-Apr. 2023, sales increase YTD was +26.8%, which would mean to ▼ Government is still showing no intention to redeploy incentives to get
reach 75% of the pre-Covid TIV level at the end of 2023 higher BEV share in 2023
▲ GDP forecast 2023 as well as private consumption remain both slightly ▼ BEV prices are still high: despite sharp reductions usually granted to
positive, while consumer prices should drop by ca. 2 percent points buyers, 44% of dealers is expecting further increases
▲ Chinese brands (esp. MG, BYD and NIO) are moving to Italy offering ▼ 25% of vehicles are over 15 years old: in 2009, the average age was 7.9
BEVs, generating more price competition, necessary for electrification years; in 2022, it was 12 years
© 2023 S&P Global. 20

Spain sales overview

Fantastic start into the year ! Growth rate soaring 32.7% (YTD April) confirms the fastest vehicle demand pace in the last four years (2020-23)
Both private consumers and companies are growing more confident and renewing fleets. Rental companies restock +123% YTD
Yearly Sales
1.4 1.29 1.32 20.0%
Millions
140 70%
1.21
Thousands
15.0%
1.2 62% 60%
6.4% 120 49%
1.06 10.0%
1.01 1.01 13.8% 50%
1 0.93 5.0%
13.9% 100
2.5% 0.0% 40%
0.8 0.2% 80
-5.0% 30%
0.6 -7.7% -10.0% 60 20%
19% 14.2% 14.3%
6.8% 9.2%
-15.0% 8.9% 11.0% 10%
0.4 40 0.4%
-20.0% 0%
-25.0% 20 -10%
0.2 -1.5%
-7.3%
-30.0%
0 -20%
0 -31.5% -35.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 YoY Evolution 2022
2023 Actuals 2023 Forecast
Spain Sales Year over Year Change 2024 Forecast
▲ PV: HEV outsells BEV (April shares: HEV 29%, PHEV 5.8%, BEV 4.6%) ▼ High inflationary pressures have led business/consumers to spend cautiously
▲ HEV preference tied to competitive pricing, no need for EV charging ▼ Tighter budgets resulting from high energy & food prices, high ECB rate
▲ Heavy discounting for BEVs (average €3,000, and highest at €9,000) ▼ Diesel cars decreasing heavily as new city restrictions will accelerate trend
▲ Top Selling PV Brands in April: VW, SEAT, Toyota, Peugeot, Kia, Renault ▼ Only 20 cities of potentially 149 have advanced with LEZ (ban very old ICE)
▲ Car dealers will keep pushing low month leasing campaigns in 2023 to ▼ BEVs are too expensive: few cars under €25k in price sensitive market
counter higher prices from inflation + CO 2 tax (but interest rates are rising) ▼ EV Charging infrastructure continues to lag other EU member states
▲ Company car demand had a positive year, April regs +8.9% show signs ▼ Size of Rental car fleets remain well below pre-Covid volumes
supported by pent-up demand and outperformed private sales channel ▼ LCV fleets reduced, incremental renewals on stand-by. Demand levels back
▲ MOVES III: Gov’t to support BEV+PHEV through Dec. 2023 to those of 8 years ago. Snapback confirmed for 2023. April Regs +8.7%.
© 2023 S&P Global. 21

Russia sales overview

Sanctions further cutting Russia from Western Economies, second round of mobilization possible and emigration still strong – vehicle sales
under strong pressure from extremely unfavorable market framework
Yearly Sales
1.8 1.68 16.2% 20.0%
120 120%
Millions
1.60
Thousands
4.8% 95%
1.6 10.0% 90% 100%
8.1% 100 80%
1.4 4.5% 0.0% 57%
0.5% 66%
80 44% 46% 60%
1.2 -10.0%
-8.4% 39% 40%
39%
1 0.87 0.92 0.92 -20.0%
60 24% 20%
0.8 0.75 -30.0%
0.70 0%
40 -20%
0.6 -40.0%
0.4 -50.0% 20 -28%

-40%
-58.5% -64% -60%
-60%
0.2 -60.0%
0 -80%
Russia Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Technical requirements for vehicles downgraded – this allowed restart of ▼ Next round of sanctions further isolated banking and production sectors from
assembly of Lada vehicles in the situation of the supply constrains and is the the Western world. GDP upgraded but it is still in the negative territory also ‘23.
base for the improvement trend till end of the year. But it is the first step in a ▼ Local production currently continues only for some Russian brands which
degradation of the automotive industry in Russia supply chain is also under heavy pressure right now, domestic assembly for
▲ Chinese OEMs, increase their penetration strongly – but not expected to fully any Western or Japanese OEMs is not expected anymore.
replace the share of “Western” OEMs. Share of Chinese cars in the Russian ▼ Mobilization and emigration hit private consumption in Russia additionally incl.
sales in 2022 accounted for 19.5% but exceeded 30% in the final months of vehicle sales. After ~59% decline in 2022, S&P Global Mobility expects
2022 Russian sales to increase 8% this year and 16% the year after.
© 2023 S&P Global. 22

Japan sales overview

Market shows signs of recovery partially due to lower base of comparison, and easing supply constraints
Yearly Sales
6 8.9%
10.0%
Millions
700 25%
Thousands
5 4.84 4.69 21% 21%
4.51 4.51 7.4% 4.55 5.0% 600 20%
4.36
4.14
4
500 17%
11% 13% 15%
0.0%
400
3 13% 10%
-3.3% -2.9% 300 6%
-3.3% -5.0% 4%
5%
2 -5.0% 5%
200
-10.0% 100 0%
1
-2%
-11.5% 0%
0 -3% -5%
Japan Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Extension of Eco-car tax breaks with the same threshold carried ▼ Consumer price inflation picking up, by higher energy prices and
over until the end of 2023 might help supporting sales momentum food, making some consumers cautious on spending activity in general
▲ Fundamentally, the potential vehicle demand is still there—fulfilment ▼ Many selected/popular models delivery timing delays esp. popular HEV
is the key challenge for short term but some brands Toyota/Daihatsu models/SUVs—major OEMs still facing delays—few months up to years
showing double digit growth % in y/y comparison ▼ Majority of electric power companies have applied to raise household
▲ Some selected model delivery timing becoming shorter gradually, electricity charges impacting on household spendings
while higher popularity models still take time for delivery
© 2023 S&P Global. 23

South Korea sales overview

Sales improvement seen due to some vehicle supply constraints easing for selected OEMs, yet others are still facing difficulty
Yearly Sales
2 1.86 8.0%
Millions
200 25%
Thousands
1.8 1.70 1.72 1.70 1.68 6.0%
1.66 1.62 180 21%
6.4% 19%
1.6 20%
4.0% 160
1.4 3.8% 15%
2.0% 140
1.2 120
0.0% 5%
8% 10%
8%
1 -1.6% 100
-2.0%
80 5%
0.8 -2.3% -1.1% 1% 1%
-3.1% -4.0% 60 0% 0%
0.6
-6.0% 40 0%
0.4 -2% -5%
-8.0%
20
0.2 -6%
0 -8% -10%
South Korea Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Improvement in the semiconductor supply situation, stable plant ▼ Tax reduction program available till mid-2023 would not be as
operations, helped boosting sales for some brands effective as it used to be—extension was already repeated many times
▲ Ongoing tax reduction program is extended further towards the mid 2023 ▼ Uncertainties to the inflation outlook remain high in relation to the pace of
(30% reduction in consumption tax on purchases of passenger vehicles) the general consumption demand slowdown domestically and overseas.
▲ New electrified models gaining popularity among consumers ▼ Weaker exports environment, downturn in the global electronics cycle
and domestic sluggish real estate market posing some macro-economic
environment concerns
© 2023 S&P Global. 24

India sales overview

Buoyant demand but aggressive rate hikes by global central banks & elevated inflation create downside risk to India growth
Yearly Sales
6 30.0%
Millions
450 18%
Thousands
23.6% 15%
26.4% 4.91 16%
5 4.65 4.71 20.0% 400
4.39 4.48 14%
350
12%
4 10.0% 300 12%
3.55 11%
10%
2.81 6.0% 5.0%
250 9% 8%
3 -3.6%
4.2% 0.0% 7% 8%
200
6%
2 -10.0% 150 5% 4%
3%
100 2% 2%
2%
1 -20.0% 50 0%
-20.1% 0%
0 0% -2%
India Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Entry models not impacted much by chip crisis and are helping in Improved ▼ Hike of 250 basis points in repo rates since May22 will be a deterrent to
production. However high-end variants continues to be in short supply growth in later half 2023 and 2024.
▲ Pent-up demand continues to drive the wholesale, However demand is slowing ▼ TCO on rise. Consecutive hike in car prices due to rupee
down as inventory levels are going up and close to pre pandemic levels. depreciation, regulations & high fuel prices impacting affordability
▲ New model introductions continue to create excitement among consumers ▼ Cancellations/Reduction in waiting periods observed—discounts coming
▲ Double digit salary hikes across industry and below attractive finance rates in many models and inventory has started going up.
pushing positive sentiment. Ride hailing business, Push to upgrade to new cars in ▼ Geo-economics & geo-political tensions downside risk to growth
metros and scrappage scheme may be key driver to growth in coming months
© 2023 S&P Global. 25

ASEAN sales overview

Economic recovery, compiled demand, and more EV incentives, but challenging from vehicle price up, higher household expenditure, stricter
auto debt approval, and global economy uncertainty
Yearly Sales Monthly Sales Evolution

4.5 30.0%
400 15%
Millions
Thousands
4 3.88
21.1%
3.63 20.0% 350 11%
10%
3.37 3.49 10%
3.5 3.34
8%
300 4% 4%
5%
3 2.76 3.7% 10.0% 2%
1%
2.47 250
2.5 12.0% 7.0% 0%
200 0% -1%
0.6%
0.0%
4.0%
2 -3% -5%
150
1.5 -10.0% -10% -10%
100
1
-20.0% 50 -15% -15%
0.5
0 -20%
ASEAN Sales Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Economy rebounds mainly driven by strong private consumption and tourist ▼ Automotive stimulus packages ended in 2022 for Indonesia, Malaysia, and
resume Vietnam. Pickup truck excise tax exemption might end in 2023 for Philippines
▲ Less tight supply constraint and delivery time has improved ▼ Slow demand from higher cost of living, high household debt, and end of
▲ Thailand huge BEV bookings, CBUs imported from China (including Tesla, bank debt moratorium
BYD, Neta and MG), to be delivered in 1H 2023 ▼ Vehicle priced up, and stricter auto debt approved
▲ Newly Indonesia EV stimulus for April-December 2023 regarding VAT ▼ Negative export performance from global soften demand especially in EU and
reduction and continuing government EV incentives in Thailand, Malaysia, and US and financial volatility
Vietnam
© 2023 S&P Global. 26

Agenda
Q&A
© 2023 S&P Global. 27

Global production overview

Improving supply chain conditions support further increase in 2023 outlook, Europe, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN benefiting offsetting
reductions in mainland China; 2024 sees some ‘payback’ for gathering pace in ‘23 especially as inventory push risks early exhaustion
Global Production Comments
100 25%
Millions
90.8 92.4 ▲ Supply chain disruption clearly in retreat; lead times for
90 88.1
85.7 20% chips elevated but easing; non-automotive demand also
82.3 reduced
80 77.2 ▲ China even through peak of COVID cases - even though
74.6 15%
signs second wave is approaching – without any major
70 disruption
10%
▲ Natural gas supplies secure in Europe until next winter
60
7% 5% ▼ Recessionary fears still apparent and soft-landing
50 3% 4% expectations coming under pressure in view of likely
3% 3%
2% 0% credit squeeze
40 ▼ China market stimulus in late ‘22 created pull-ahead that
-5% cannot be sustained if incentives withdrawn
30 ▼ Europe faces permanently reduced supplies of natural
gas from Russia; risk expected to emerge now from H2
-10%
20 2023 – Gazprom tweets. Other raw materials could be
weaponized
10 -15% ▼ Investment in analogue chips limited
-16% ▼ Logistics and labour issues building, adding to
0 -20% constraints
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ▼ Levels of implied inventory rebuild could blunt upside
effects going forward, especially of ‘23 is strong coming
Global Production Year over Year Change
on top of gains seen in ‘22
© 2023 S&P Global. 28


Mainland China pull ahead effects see softening outlook with production held to come in below 2022 levels, mature manufacturing bases in
Asia, Europe and North America remain clearly positive
EUROPE
5.2% 7.7%
----------------- ----------------- MAINLAND
739k 1.2m CHINA
NORTH 0.2%
AMERICA ----------------- 9.7%
-----------------
-47k
1.7% 1.1m
-----------------
38k JAPAN/
2.4% SOUTH KOREA
3.7% MIDDLE EAST/ -----------------
----------------- 233k
AFRICA
104k
SOUTH
SOUTH ASIA
Percentage AMERICA
Growth YoY
2023 vs 2022
-----------------
Volume Delta
YoY
© 2023 S&P Global. 29


Improved supply chain supports short-term upgrades to Europe and Japan/Korea to meet order banks; Greater China, Middle East/Africa
and South America see modest reductions to align to local demand, trend reverses marginally in 2024, North America could be ‘swing’ region
Current Forecast (May 2023) Variance versus previous forecast Variance versus previous forecast (%)
2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025
Europe 15,828,571 17,050,106 17,560,542 17,466,666 2,600 112,586 -5,698 8,003 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Greater China 26,403,261 26,356,540 27,820,027 29,174,914 0 -43,079 -153,295 -169,138 0.0% -0.2% -0.5% -0.6%
Japan/Korea 11,110,202 12,183,534 11,709,406 11,572,064 3,546 161,722 30,760 85,036 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7%
Global Middle
2,241,772 2,279,295 2,515,065 2,578,445 0 -68,779 3,895 -17,935 0.0% -2.9% 0.2% -0.7%
East/Africa
North America 14,297,544 15,037,182 15,555,546 16,421,446 76 273 154 -123 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South America 2,824,337 2,928,724 3,142,686 3,348,093 1 -23,479 12,587 662 0.0% -0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
South Asia 9,614,195 9,847,396 9,814,223 10,189,808 0 73,201 36,516 -31,782 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% -0.3%
Total 82,319,882 85,682,777 88,117,495 90,751,436 6,223 212,445 -75,081 -125,277 0.0% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1%
© 2023 S&P Global. 30


Quarterly changes over April forecast shows strong performance in Q1 2023 – Greater China and South Asia but offset in Q2. Variation at the
top line stabilizes in H2 2023 and narrows further from Q2 ’24.
24
Millions
-9,807
23 -26,193
-18,177
317,648
22 -57,392
-136,162 10,295
57,152
21
20
19
18
17
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
April '23 forecast May '23 forecast
© 2023 S&P Global. 31

Restocking continues to offer upside pressure but could be exhausted by 2024

Stocks need to be increased but not to pre-crisis levels, strength of 2022 effect could change pattern in the short term; who blinks first, can
OEMs retain discipline as some sectors already at pre-crisis levels of inventory?
Change in global production levels versus global sales as proxy for global inventory levels (May 2023 production
Millions
forecast versus April 2023 sales forecast)

4.0 3.4
2.4
1.7
2.0 1.3 1.5
1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7
0.8
0.4 0.3 0.3
0.0
-0.1
-1.0
-2.0
-2.6
-3.1
-4.0
-4.7 Estimated 6.6M cut from global

inventories 2019 to 2021
-6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
© 2023 S&P Global. 32

Independent inventory measures support positive trends emerging in 2022

Positive trends evident in early months data, upside effect being realised, China correcting from high levels
US Inventory calculated S&P China Inventory index estimates India Inventory Index estimates
Global 3.0 60
4.5
Millions
4.0 2.5 50
3.5
2.0 40
3.0
2.5 1.5 30
2.0
1.0 20
1.5
1.0
0.5 10
0.5
0.0 0.0 0
Mar-22
Apr-19
Jan-18
Jun-18
Oct-21
Jan-23
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Sep-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
May-21
Aug-22
May-19
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-20
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
Nov-18
Dec-20
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
© 2023 S&P Global. 33

S&P Global Mobility Risk Tracker* – May 2023

Upside Downside
-
L
+
Magnitude
-
M +
April May In base case
-
Top 10 Risks to LV Production Output S +
2023 2023 forecast
Recession risk - - • Relapse in macro condition appear to be receding. However should this materialise it would undermine
Yes
reduce the ability of pent up demand to support production, exposing a faster inventory rebuild
• Limited credit tightening impacting auto financing is likely, following signs of banking stress in the US
- -
Banking stress / credit tightening Yes
and EU. More significant contagion and spread to other regions could pose a significant downside risk
• Key raw material prices have corrected downwards, easing some pressure on supply chain and pass-
Lessening commodity price presures + + No
through if sustained. Remarkably energy prices in Europe have fallen back to pre invasion levels
- - • Faster than expected inventory rebuild reduces the upside pressure on forward vehicle build. Could
Inventory rebuild profile No
also imply incoming demand weakness and cause reductions to build plans as early as 2024
- - • Base case includes reduced risk of immediate disruption due to better storage levels. Any full
Natural Gas physical supply to EU Yes
interruption to supply could still lead to production stoppages approaching winter of 2023/4
Inflation and Interest rates peak earlier + + • Less demand would be destroyed in the near term leading to higher build from H2 2023. More recently
Yes
and lower central bank expectations suggest interest rates main remain elevated
• Palladium and nickel remain a possible next stage in weaponization of resources as military campaign
- -
Palladium/Nickel shortages No
is pressured. So far, palladium prices suggest markets are less concerned
- - • Heightened tensions continue and have raised the risk of critical semiconductor supply disruption from
Distruption of chips from Taiwan No
the island
- - • Short term disruption still evident but significant downside limited by demand destruction already
Semiconductor shortage Yes
assumed. Analog chip capacity investment remains weak although allocation to autos improving
• US debt ceiling approaching deadline; political deadlock risks potential downside for advanced
-
US debt ceiling mishap No
economies similar to a 2011-style financial slump or prolonged uncertainty from deadline extension
Source: S&P Global Mobility – Automotive Insights *The S&P Global Mobility Risk Tracker provides an overview of key risks either included in the latest Light Vehicle Production
Forecast or considered for possible future inclusion. This does not necessarily imply the future direction of the forecast, nor are
the risks ordered by priority.
© 2023 S&P Global. 34
Global production overview – BEV and PHEV

China and Europe lead in BEV and PHEV production; BEV share increased on stimulus effects, product availability and preference – volume
and share up in tight market. North America sees greater BEV localization effects emerging in response to IR Act
Global BEV and PHEV Production BEV Production by Region
5.4% 5.4%
45 45.0% 10.1%
6.1% 5.7% 6.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% 6.4%
Millions
12.0% 11.7% 12.6% 14.8% 16.1% 16.5% 16.7% 16.6%

40 38.9 40.0%
34.9 61.0% 66.2% 58.1% 56.1% 53.1% 50.7% 47.5% 45.8% 45.4%
40.3%
35 35.0%
36.5%
30.3
30 30.0% 21.4% 21.5% 22.9% 22.2% 22.4% 24.4% 25.3% 26.0%
17.3%
25.5
25 32.2% 25.0% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
27.6%
20.2 Europe Greater China
20 20.0% North America Japan/Korea
22.2%
15.0 South Asia Middle East/Africa
15 15.0%
10.7 17.0%
PHEV Production by Region
10 6.1% 8.2 10.0% 7.3% 7.0% 6.5%
9.8% 6.1% 7.6% 8.0% 9.1%
12.5% 10.4% 10.5%
6.2 6.2 6.0 10.3% 11.5%
9.9%
4.9 5.6 5.8 12.5% 14.5% 16.2% 13.9% 12.9%
4.7 3.9
12.7%
5 2.8 6.7% 6.6% 6.3%
5.0%
6.0% 27.7%
1.8 5.6% 6.2% 48.7% 50.2% 51.0%
3.4% 4.6% 49.6%
50.5% 54.2%
0 2.3% 0.0% 54.8% 55.6%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
48.8%
32.7% 31.1% 28.7% 26.0%
BEV PHEV 21.9% 19.6% 18.6% 16.1%
Share of Global Production Share of Global Production

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Source: S&P Global Mobility LVP+AP forecast April 2023
© 2023 S&P Global. 35

Mainland China production overview

Following strong 2022 performance domestic demand expected to stall in 2023, despite growing exports full year expected to be flat before
gaining momentum again in 2024 and economic outlook improves and autos navigate transition to new emissions legislation due mid-23
Yearly Production Monthly Production Evolution
35 8.0%
3,000 80%
Millions
6.4%
30.33
Thousands
30 5.3%
28.96 6.0% 71%
27.60
26.15 26.11 2,500 60%
24.59 5.7% 4.9%
25 23.35 4.7% 4.0%
2,000 40%
20 2.0%
1,500 15% 13% 15% 17%
20%
12%
15 0.0%
-0.2%
1,000 0%
10 -2.0%
-5%
-11% -14%
500 -21%
-20%
-34% -15%
5 -4.0%
-4.4% 0 -40%
Mainland China Production Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Production remained momentum in March outperforming our initial estimation. ▼ Owing to pay-back effect and price stabilization after motor show, we re-adjusted
▲ Total March output achieved above 2.4m unit and year-on-year growth 15%, our assessment for April by reduction of 140k unit and for May by 50k unit
further narrowed the quarterly reduction to 4%. respectively. The total Q2 therefore has been reduced by over 200k unit.
▲ Inventory has been further eased to 1.51 index in April according to ▼ Amid geopolitical tension escalation and some headwinds in financial sector and
CDCA, benefitted by new model launching during Shanghai motor show season stock market, entire 2023 Great China light vehicle industry output has been
and increasing demand to NEVs. reduced by 40k and will remain a slight declining of 0.2% from a flat development
▲ Export business played a big role by achieving 1.4m unit until April according to in April forecast. To reflect increasing economic uncertainties in following years,
customs, which is predicted to meet 4m this year. 2024 and 2025 have been reduced 150k and 170k unit respectively and can
rebound by 5.7% and 4.9% moderately.
© 2023 S&P Global. 36

Europe* (excluding CIS) production overview

Watching a transition from supply constraints to demand ceiling in quarters time

18 10.0% 1,800 50%
Thousands
16.40 16.39
Millions
16.02 16.28
16 14.85 14.82
1,600 38%
40%
14.05 8.1% 5.0%
14 5.5%
1,400
2.4% 30%
-0.7% 0.0% 1,200
12 -5.4% -0.1%
1,000 16% 20%
10 -5.0% 19% 12% 10%
17%
800 10% 10%
8 -10.0%
600
6 0%
-15.0% 400 -2% -2%
-2% -10%
4 200 -7% -10%
-20.0%
2 0 -20%
EU (excluding CIS) Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Q1 production was the strongest since the beginning of the ▼ 2023 year-over-year growth largely owed to base effects in H1
semiconductor shortage two years ago ▼ Overall inventories already getting close to pre-shortage levels
▲ Chip supplies continue to improve and volume volatility is easing ▼ Europe over-exposed to the energy crisis both in terms of domestic
▲ Ramp-up of Tesla Berlin substitutes imports and support regional volume demand and competitiveness of local production
growth ▼ The regulatory roadmap combined with competition of imported electric
vehicles challenges overall volumes
Note: *Europe = EU27 + UK, Turkey and Serbia. Not including Commonwealth of Independent States
© 2023 S&P Global. 37

North America production overview

Semiconductor shortage undermines short-term outlook

18 25.0% 1,600 17% 20%
16.42 16.50
Millions
Thousands
15.56 20.0%
16 15.04 1,400 15%
14.30
14 13.02 13.05 15.0%
1,200 12% 14%
10%
10.0% 5%
12 1,000 6%
9.6% 6% 5% 3%
5.0% 7% 2% 5%
10 5.2% 5.6% 800
3.4% 0.0% 0%
8 0.2% 0.5%
-5.0%
600 -2%
6 400 -5%
-10.0%
4 -15.0% 200 -10%
-12%
2 -20.0% 0 -15%
-20.2%
North America Production Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ US inventory remains at historic lows at 33 days’ supply or 1.74M units ▼ Supply chain, logistics and labor issues continue to hamper production
▲ US inventory declined for the first time in nine months by 45K units or ▼ US buying conditions at lowest levels on record amid rich pricing, rising
2.5% m/m and 677K or 63.6% y/y interest rates, tightening credit availability and limited inventory
▲ Improving production and inventory restocking from 2023 onwards ▼ Rapidly increasing truck inventory projected to become problematic for
expected to alleviate pricing pressures in autos GM, Ford and Stellantis sooner than other transplant manufacturers
▲ Marked improvements in production levels from Japanese OEMs ▼ Strike fears amid looking union negotiations in September
© 2023 S&P Global. 38

South America production overview

Recovery remains sluggish as economic conditions are not very supportive (inflation, limited credit availability) and supply chains issues
keep disrupting operations, mainly in Brazil.
4 20.0% 300 25%
Millions
Thousands
3.35 3.49
3.5 16.1% 8.4% 23%
3.14 4.3% 10.0% 250 20%
2.82 2.93 6.5%
3 7.3%
2.61 15%
2.5
3.7% 0.0% 200
2.25 13%
11% 10%
2 -10.0% 150 4%
4% 2% 5%
1.5 1%
-20.0% 100 1%
1
0%
-30.0% 50 -2% 0% -1%
0.5 -5%
-31.4%
-7%
0 -40.0% 0 -10%
South America Production Brazil Production YoY Evolution 2022 2023 Actuals
Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Exports are allowing for some room for maneuver (more in Argentina ▼ Domestic demand faltering, especially in Brazil when credit availability
than in Brazil though) which compensates until now for weaker domestic is scarce
demand ▼ Semiconductor disruptions worse and sooner than anticipated: several
▲ Product activity will keep customers interested in 2023, notably with stoppages already in Q1 (were expected in the later part of the year)
many launch in the hot pickup segments (entries from Ford, Chevrolet, ▼ Global geopolitical events might have dampening effects on the region
Fiat...) ▼ Inflation is dramatically changing customer profile, making financing
▲ Fleet demand remains strong and, so far, offsets lack of impetus form capacity/availability all the more vital to sales
private buyers ▼ Political landscape adds to uncertainty: general election year for
Argentina, potential for turmoil in Brazil (against new majority)
© 2023 S&P Global. 39

Japan production overview

The second quarter should be another healthy period to recover the lost volume due to the semiconductor shortage

9 8.27 15.0% 900 60%
Millions
Thousands
8.03 7.99 56%
8 7.74 7.66 800
7.45 7.40 10.0% 50%
11.8%
7 700
5.0% 40%
6 600
500 30%
5 0.0%
-0.7% -0.5% 400 13% 20%
4 26% 23%
-3.7% -5.0%
-2.9% -4.1% 300 17% 15%
3 4%
10%
-10.0% 200 7% 3% 3%
2
100 -3% 0%
-15.0% -2%
1 0 -10%
-16.0%
Japan Production Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ The number of COVID-19 infection has been dramatically reducing since ▼ Japanese OEMs have been struggling to secure semiconductors from
last December even though restrictions to enter the country eases. the foreign semiconductor manufacturers.
▲ Sufficient pent-up demand remains in the domestic sales market and ▼ Moderate economic slowdown in the US and EU will weaken momentum
OEMs will have chances to recover. of export recovery in the first half of the year.
▲ Lower inventory level in the US will encourage OEMs to especially build ▼ BEV development delay will deprive Japanese OEMs of partially
up SUV inventory for the market. recovering the pent-up demand.
© 2023 S&P Global. 40

South Korea production overview

Production recovery is maintained in the short term, but economic slowdown in the US and Europe will weaken the momentum

4.5 8.5%
10.0% 450 36% 40%
Millions
Thousands
4 3.71 3.91 3.68 400 32%
3.46 3.58 30%
3.42 3.34 5.0% 350
3.5 5.5%
3 300 13% 25%

20%
-1.1% 0.0% 250
2.5 6%
10%
200
2 -2.6%
-5.0% 150 -3% 0%
1.5 0% -3%
-6.6% 100 -4% -4%
1 -6.1%
-10%
-10.0% 50 -10% -11%
0.5 -11.1% 0 -20%
South Korea Production Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Plant utilization maintains high with the stable supply chain, including ▼ With the backlog orders declining, restraining consumer spending due to
semiconductor chips the global economic slowdown caused by high inflation and interest rates
▲ While exports are leading the growth driven by pent-up demand and will gradually dampen production momentum
backlog orders, domestic sales are also recovering due to new vehicle ▼ The US IRA and the EU GDIP pose a threat to the export
effects and incentive programs for eco-friendly vehicles competitiveness of electric vehicles, although OEMs are seeking ways to
▲ GM Korea's export volume of new CUVs to North America and KG mitigate the impact
Mobility's strengthening of the Middle East market add to the upside ▼ In the transition to electrified vehicle production, overseas localization is
Source: S&P Global Mobility increasing to meet each government's subsidy policies at the expense of
domestic output
© 2023 S&P Global. 41

India production overview

Confidence in planning improves, with robust actual reporting.

7 40.0% 600 20%
Millions
Thousands
17%
5.88
6 5.49 5.63 30.0% 500
5.36 14% 15%
27.6% 5.11 11%
5 20.0% 400 12%
23.3%
4.15 10%
7.4%
4 10.0%
300
7% 9%
3.25 7% 5%
-2.5% 7% 5%
3 5.0% 4.6% 0.0%
200 4%
0%
2 -10.0% 0%
100
-2%
1 -20.0%
0 -5%
-22.6%
India Production Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Robust demand continues as backlog prevails. Strong actual data ▼ Supply demand imbalance to continue as production lines face continued
reported in Q1 2023. supply disruption. Maruti, VW , Mahindra struggling.
▲ Increase in Russian crude imports at discounted rate helps India to ▼ OEM's unable to ramp-up due to semiconductor shortage.
counter high inflation. ▼ Re-introduction of discounts in some models.
▲ Demand sustaining currently but will depend on upcoming monsoon. ▼ Introduction of multiple regulations(RDE,6 airbag etc.) in 2023,expected
▲ New launches to bring incremental export volumes. to bring further price hikes.
© 2023 S&P Global. 42

ASEAN production overview

As supply chain constraints has eased, most OEMs shall fully deliver the backlogs of 2022 in Q2, resulting in a weaker production
momentum in H2 coupled with global economic headwinds

5 4.59
30.0% 450 30%
Millions
Thousands
4.36
4.5 4.27 4.20 4.27 400 24%
25%
23.8% 20.0%
4 22.1% 350 20%
3.50
3.5 10.0% 300 15%
2.82 13% 9% 9% 10%
3 5.1% 0.0% 250 5% 4%
1.7% 2.3% 0% 5%
2.5 -1.7% 200
-10.0% 0%
2 150 -5%
1.5 -20.0% 100 -10% -14% -10%
1 50 -12% -15%
-30.0% -17%
-16%
0.5 -30.2% 0 -20%
ASEAN Production Year over Year Change 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
▲ Robust production momentum for best-selling models despite the end of ▼ Slower pace of demand during H2 post OEM’s backlog fulfillment
incentives and subsidy in Malaysia and Indonesia. ▼ Recently announced Indonesia’s VAT (Value Added Tax) reduction for
▲ Government’s tax incentives and subsidies for electrified vehicle (xEV) locally assembled battery electric vehicle (BEV) from 11% to 1% during
segment 2023 is less attractive enough to drive the demand in short-term
▲ Easing of supply chain constraints ▼ Rising energy price and inflation across the region
© 2023 S&P Global. 43

Agenda
Q&A
© 2023 S&P Global. 44

Questions & answers
Q&A
© 2023 S&P Global. 45

Thank you
PRIMARY CONTACT(S)
Colin Couchman Mark Fulthorpe

colin.couchman@ihsmarkit.com mark.fulthorpe@ihsmarkit.com
CONTACT US
Asia and the Pacific Rim
Japan: +81 3 6262 1887
Asia Pacific: +604 291 3600
Europe, Middle East, and Africa

+44 1344 328 300
Americas
+1 800 447 2273
customercare@ihsmarkit.com
© 2023 S&P Global. 46

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Around the World

Colin Couchman, Research and Analysis Executive Director, colin.couchman@ihsmarkit.com

© 2023 S&P Global.

Questions and Answers

© 2023 S&P Global. 2

Light Vehicle Sales Outlook

Light Vehicle Production Outlook

© 2023 S&P Global. 3

World Economic Growth Rates

World Economic Growth Rates

© 2023 S&P Global. 4

World Economic Overview: Inflation & Unemployment Rates

World Inflation Rates (Q1 2019-Q4 2023)

World Unemployment Rates (Q1 2019 – Q4 2023)

© 2023 S&P Global. 5

World Economic IHS Markit manufacturing PMI®

Purchasing Managers’ Index® data

United States Eurozone Mainland China Japan

© 2023 S&P Global. 6

Light Vehicle Sales Outlook – including bonus SBPT Summary

Light Vehicle Production Outlook

© 2023 S&P Global. 7

Global sales overview

Source: S&P Global Mobility

© 2023 S&P Global. 8

Global sales overview

Source: S&P Global Mobility

© 2023 S&P Global. 9

USA EU30 Mainland China

Mainland China sales overview

26.47 3,000 68% 80%

© 2023 S&P Global. 11

USA sales overview

Source: S&P Global Mobility

© 2023 S&P Global. 12

Canada sales overview

© 2023 S&P Global. 13

Mexico sales overview

© 2023 S&P Global. 14

Brazil sales overview

2.67 250 40%

© 2023 S&P Global. 15

Western + Central Europe sales overview

© 2023 S&P Global. 16

Germany sales overview

0.5 -15.0% 50 -30%

© 2023 S&P Global. 17

14.1% 450 40%

© 2023 S&P Global. 18

France sales overview

2.20 2.21 300 30%

© 2023 S&P Global. 19

Italy sales overview

Yearly Sales Monthly Sales Evolution

1.73 1.78 1.75 200 35%

© 2023 S&P Global. 20

Spain sales overview

© 2023 S&P Global. 21

Russia sales overview

0.4 -50.0% 20 -28%

© 2023 S&P Global. 22

Japan sales overview