Version: September 2, 2014

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
THE JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL METHODS (API-201)
Course Syllabus for ABC Sections – Fall 2014

CLASSES

Section A Jonathan Borck T/Th 8:40 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. L230

Section B Michael Callen T/Th 1:10 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. Land
Section C John Friedman T/Th 1:10 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. L280

REVIEW SESSIONS

Teaching Fellows will hold weekly review sessions at the following times:

Session #1 Fridays 10:10 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. Starr

Session #2 Fridays 11:40 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. L230

We strongly recommend you attend one of these review sessions each week. You may attend
either session. There will be no review sessions held on exam days (Oct. 10 and Nov. 7).

CONTACT INFORMATION

FACULTY OFFICE EMAIL

Jonathan Borck Belfer 125 Jonathan_Borck@hks.harvard.edu
Michael Callen Rubenstein 118 Michael_Callen@hks.harvard.edu
John Friedman Taubman 356 John_Friedman@harvard.edu

TEACHING FELLOWS EMAIL

Boban Paul Boban_Paul@hks15.harvard.edu
Jamie Daw jdaw@fas.harvard.edu
Eduardo Montero Eduardom52@gmail.com

COURSE ASSISTANTS EMAIL

Johannes Ardiant Johannes_Ardiant@hks15.harvard.edu
Kevin Beauchemin Kevin_Beauchemin@hks15.harvard.edu
Miranda Berry Miranda_Berry@hks15.harvard.edu
Upasana Khadka Upasana_Khadka@hks15.harvard.edu
Erica Leinmiller Erica_Leinmiller@hks15.harvard.edu
Laura Melle Laura_Melle@hks15.harvard.edu

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OFFICE HOURS

FACULTY TIMES SIGN UP AT:

Jonathan Borck W 9:15-10:30 a.m. or by appointment https://www.timetrade.com/book/VKZC6
Michael Callen TBD TBD
John Friedman Th 3:30-5:30 p.m. or by appointment https://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfriedm

Office hours for Teaching Fellows and Course Assistants will be posted on the course website.

COURSE OVERVIEW

API-201 introduces a range of quantitative tools commonly used to inform public policy issues. It covers
descriptive statistics, probability theory, statistical inference, decision analysis, and regression analysis,
with an emphasis on the ways in which they are applied to practical policy questions. Our goal is that by
the end of this course you will be able to:

1. Take a data set and a broad descriptive policy question (such as “what has happened to incomes
in the US in the last 30 years?”), figure out the most appropriate statistical analysis to answer the
question, conduct the analysis, identify the most salient findings/patterns that emerge from the
data, and present the findings in an effective manner to policymakers.

2. Identify real-world policy situations in which the tools of probability can be used, identify which
tools are most relevant to inform courses of action in those real-world situations, and critically
consume policy analysis in which probability is used.

3. Critically consume policy studies/papers/reports in which statistical analysis is used.

The course content is divided into four broad units: Descriptive Statistics (2 classes), Probability (9
classes), Statistical Inference (8 classes) and Regression Analysis (6 classes). The course also provides
you with an opportunity to become proficient in the use of Excel as a tool to analyze quantitative data.

API-201 is open to all Kennedy School students and is required for first-year MPPs. Students from other
graduate programs may enroll with the permission of an instructor.

HOW DOES SECTION Z DIFFER FROM SECTIONS A, B, AND C?

Section Z has a similar syllabus as Sections A, B and C, but it assumes a greater level of mathematical
facility. It will rely more on algebra and proceed faster than the other sections, allowing more time for
applications, in-depth discussions, and a number of advanced topics. Section Z will use two statistical
software packages, Stata and Excel, to conduct data analysis throughout the semester. By contrast,
Sections A, B and C will focus on the use of Excel. We encourage students considering Section Z to talk
with the instructors to determine which section is a better fit.

In order to enroll in API-202Z, you will need an A or A- in API-201Z or an A in API-201ABC.

First-year MPP students with prior coursework in statistics are strongly encouraged to place out of the
course entirely by taking an exemption exam at the start of the semester. Students may also switch from
the Z section to the A/B/C sections any time from the beginning of the semester up to no later than one
week after the first midterm, after consultation with faculty.

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TEXTS AND MATERIALS

Required Textbook:
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics (Moore, McCabe, and Craig) 8th Edition. You have two
options for acquiring the textbook:
a. Hard Copy of Textbook + Access Card to StatsPortal (~$170 at the COOP)
b. Electronic Copy of Textbook + Access Card to StatsPortal (~$85 at Publisher’s website)
Note: You will need StatsPortal to complete the online exercises and access course resources. It is
essential that you purchase an option that includes access to StatsPortal. If you buy a used copy of the
book, you will still need to buy an access card under option b, which may make your overall purchase more
expensive than option a.
Once you purchase the StatsPortal Access Card, see instructions on the last page of the syllabus to register
activation code.

Recommended Texts (optional):

 Open Intro Statistics. David Diez, Christopher Barr, Mine Çetinkaya. The electronic version of the
textbook is available for free at www.openintro.org. Printed copies may be purchased for about $9 on
CreateSpace or Amazon.
 How to Lie With Statistics. Darrell Huff, Irving Geis. W. W. Norton & Company; Reissue edition, 1993.
ISBN: 0393310728. This book is a classic that has been in print for over 50 years. It has great, though
sometimes dated, examples of how policy makers, journalists, and business people abuse and misuse
statistics.
 The Cartoon Guide to Statistics. Larry Gonick, Woollcott Smith. HarperResource; 1st HarperPerennial ed
edition, 1994. ISBN: 0062731025. This book provides excellent and amusing non-technical explanations
of many key concepts.
 Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney,
Howard Raiffa, Broadway, 2002. ISBN: 0767908864. This book provides an introduction to decision
analysis by three prominent leaders in the field.
Feel free to acquire any of these books from your favorite bookstore or on-line retailer. Copies will also be
on reserve at the HKS library.

Excel:

 One of the objectives of the course is to help you gain proficiency using spreadsheets, which are
often used to conduct policy analysis. Problem sets will contain exercises designed to get you to
practice the basics of Microsoft Excel. If you have had no prior experience with Excel, we
strongly encourage you to attend the Excel sessions that will be offered at the beginning of the
semester.

 The data sets used in the course will be available on the course website in Excel format. You
may use other software packages, but the course will provide support only for Excel.

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Handouts:

Handouts will be distributed throughout the course. The main objective of the handouts is to
facilitate the process of taking notes so that you can fully engage in class. They are not meant to
substitute for class attendance or for studying the assigned reading material. Handouts will
contain blank spaces for you to fill in during class, usually in response to questions.

GRADING

The class grade will be based on the following criteria:

10% - Problem sets
15% - Class participation and engagement
15% - Final Exercise
15% - Midterm #1
15% - Midterm #2
30% - Final exam

Problem Sets (10%)

Problem sets will be assigned almost every week. They will give you hands-on experience with
the analytic techniques introduced in class. You should plan to spend approximately 6-8 hours on
each problem set. Problem sets will be posted on the course website, as will suggested solutions.
They will be graded on check-plus/check/check-minus basis.

Problem sets are due at the beginning of class. Problem sets not received before the deadline will
be considered late. There will be no credit for late assignments. The lowest problem set grade will
be dropped when calculating the average grade for the problem sets.

Under the Kennedy School Academic Code, the problem sets for this course are “Type II”
assignments. You are encouraged to work in a study group, but must submit your own hand- or
type-written solutions. Examples of assignments that are not in accordance with the HKS
academic code include photocopies or reprints of substantially identical assignments, printouts of
substantially identical Excel tables or graphs, and copies of solutions from previous years. The
Kennedy School Academic Code is available at:
https://knet.hks.harvard.edu/dp_student_affairs/Student_Life/Documents/academic code.pdf.

Instructions for submitting problem sets:

 Put them on specially designated piles located near one of the entrances (near one of the CAs)
 Submit them before class begins. Those handed in after class begins will be considered late.
 Indicate on the first page the names of the students with whom you worked.

Class participation and engagement (15%)

We strongly believe that student participation can substantially enrich the learning experience for
both the students and the instructor. In this spirit, class participation is encouraged. Effective class
participation requires that you do the assigned readings before coming to class. You are
encouraged to ask questions and to share with the class any relevant insights you may have from

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your work experience or from previous exposure to these topics. We only ask that the questions
and comments be brief and related to the topic at hand. Given that this is a large class, we will
sometimes need to defer questions for a future class or office hours.

For a number of classes, we will ask that you complete an online exercise, typically about the
assigned reading(s). The online exercises are designed to help you prepare for class so you can
learn optimally in each class session. There are two types of on-line exercises: (1) on-line
quizzes, and (2) posting of a brief comment (no longer than 150 words) on the class website.
Grades on the on-line quizzes are meant to help you and us assess your understanding of the
relevant topic prior to class, and will not be counted towards your participation grade. However,
the completion of the quizzes and the quality of your effort will count towards your grade.

Online exercises are due by 4:00 AM the morning of class.

The class participation and engagement grade will depend on three things: (1) your participation
in class, (2) your engagement with the course outside class, (3) your completion of the on-line
exercises. For all of these, quantity and quality will both count.

Final Exercise (15%)

The final exercise will require applying some of the statistical tools learned in class using a real
data set. It is due on December 4. More details will be provided later in the course.

Exams (60%)
There will be two midterms and a final exam. These will be closed book/notes. A formula sheet
will be provided. Calculators may be used, but statistical functions on them may not. Calculators
that allow text storage are not permitted.

Note: The two midterms will be on FRIDAYS, Oct. 10 and Nov. 7, from 8:40 to 10:00 am.
There will be no review sessions on those days. You should plan your schedule accordingly.

All students are expected to be present on exam days. We will adhere to the Registrar’s policy
regarding rescheduling of exams (i.e. only to be done in case of documented health-related or
personal emergencies).

Regrade Policy
Requests for reconsideration of grades on exams are not encouraged and will be accepted only in
writing, with a clear statement of what has been incorrectly graded, within one week of receiving
your graded exam. Please submit your full exam so grading on all questions can be reconsidered.
All course activities, including class meetings, homework assignments, and exams, are subject to
the HKS Academic Code and Code of Conduct.

Final Letter Grades

Grades for each exam and for each component of the course (problem sets, final exercise, and
class participation and engagement) will be standardized (i.e. curved) and then an overall score
for the course will be calculated for each student. This overall score will be translated into a final
course letter grade using the Dean’s Recommended Grade Distribution (available at
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/degrees/registrar/faculty/exams-and-grading/grades).

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COURSE SCHEDULE
This outline is preliminary and subject to change. Please see course website for updates.

Readings
# Date Topic Assignments
(MMC 8th edition, except as denoted *)
I. DESCRIBING DATA
1.1, 2.1, An Economist’s Guide to
1 9/4 Introduction and Descriptive Statistics #1
Visualizing Data*
2 9/9 Descriptive Statistics #2 PS#1 due 1.2, 2.2, 2.6
II. PROBABILITY
3 9/11 Basic Probability 4.1, 4.2, 4.5 ( – p. 282)
4 9/16 Conditional Probability PS#2 due 4.5 (pp. 282 – end)
5 9/18 Bayes’ Rule Mammogram article *
6 9/23 Application: Public Pensions in Mexico PS#3 due Mexico pensions case *
7 9/25 Probability Distributions 4.3 ( – p. 252), 4.4
8 9/30 Conditional Expectations PS#4 due
9 10/2 Introduction to Decision Analysis TBA*
10 10/7 Continuous Distributions PS#5 due 1.3, 4.3 (pp. 253 – end)
11 10/09 Midterm Review
10/10 MIDTERM #1 at 8:40 a.m.
III. STATISTICAL INFERENCE
12 10/14 Introduction to Statistical Inference
13 10/16 Sampling Distributions for Proportions 3.3 (pp. 202-206) and 5.2 (pp. 312-326)
14 10/21 Confidence Intervals for Proportions PS#6 due 6.1 (pp. 344-347) and 8.1 (pp. 474-478)
15 10/23 Statistical Inference for Proportions 6.2 (pp. 360-369)
16 10/28 Statistical Inference for Means PS#7 due 6.1 (pp. 348-end), 6.2 (pp. 370-end), 7.1
17 10/30 Statistical Inference for Differences 7.2, 8.2
18 11/4 Application: Critical Assessment of Evidence PS#8 due Oregon health care experiment *
19 11/6 Midterm #2 Review
11/7 MIDTERM #2 at 8:40 a.m.
IV. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
11/11 No Class (Veterans Day)
20 11/13 Regression Analysis I 10.1 (pp. 545-560)
21 11/18 Regression Analysis II PS#9 due 11.1
22 11/20 Chi-squared, F-tests and Cherry Picking 9.1-9.3
23 11/25 Significance, Power, and Other Key Concepts PS#10 due 6.3-6.4
11/27 No Class (Thanksgiving)
24 12/2 Application: Critical Assessment of Evidence
Final
25 12/4 Final Review / Exercise Presentations
Exercise
12/12 FINAL EXAM at 9:00 a.m.

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STATS PORTAL REGISTRATION INSTRUCTIONS

To be able to use StatsPortal for this class, you need to register your activation code and gain access to the
API-201 part of the site. Here are the steps you need to complete:

1. Go to http://portals.bfwpub.com/ips8e (Mac users need to use Firefox).

2. Click on “Register an Activation Code.”
3. Fill in relevant information, including section (Z or ABC).
If registering for one of the ABC sections,
(a) select “MA” as the state
(b) then select “Harvard” as the institution
(c) then select “Quantitative Analysis and Empirical – API-201ABC” as the course /
instructor
(d) then select your section (A - Borck, B - Callen, or C - Friedman).
4. If you have technical difficulties, please contact Technical Support (1-800-936-6899;
techsupport@bfwpub.com).