毕业设计(论文)

THE INFLUENCE OF CHINA’S

AGRICULTURAL TRADE WITH RUSSIA

院（系）名称 : School of Economics and Management

专业名称: International Economics & Trade

学生姓名: MWILA MWINJI

Chinese name（中文名字）：穆维拉

学号: 198003002

指导教师 ：梁莹莹

2023 年 5 月 20 日
 TABLE OF CONTENT
TABLE OF CONTENT....................................................................................ii
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES...................................................................iv
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACCRONYMS.............................................................v
Keywords.....................................................................................................vi
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................vii
CHAPTER ONE.............................................................................................1
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................1
1.1 Background to the Study............................................................................1
1.2 Problem Statement.....................................................................................6
1.3 Research Objectives....................................................................................7
1.4 Significance of the Study............................................................................8
CHAPTER TWO............................................................................................9
LITERATURE REVIEW..................................................................................9
2.1 Theoretical Review......................................................................................9
2.2 Empirical Review......................................................................................10
2.3 Conceptual Research Model......................................................................15
CHAPTER THREE.......................................................................................16
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY......................................................................16
3.1 Research Designs.....................................................................................16
3.2 Data Collection.........................................................................................16
3.3 Data Analysis and Presentation................................................................16

CHAPTER FOUR.........................................................................................18
DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS...........................................18
4.1 Descriptive Statistics................................................................................18
4.2 Correlation...............................................................................................19
4.3 Stationarity Properties..............................................................................20

4.4 Results and Discussions..........................................................................21

CHAPTER FIVE..........................................................................................29
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS....................................................29
 5.1 Summary of the Findings..........................................................................29
5.2 Conclusion...............................................................................................29
5.3 Contribution/Implications of the Study....................................................30
5.4 Recommendations....................................................................................32
5.5 Suggestion for Further Studies.................................................................33
REFERENCES............................................................................................35
 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figure 1. 1:Russia’s Agriculturale Trade Balance with China .............................15

Figure 1. 2: Russia Agriculrural Export to China................................................17

Figure 4. 3: Russia Agri-Food Export to China.................................................18

Figure 4.4.1 China export of vegetable, fruit nut food preparations to Russia.....19

Table 4. 4.2 The most exported Chinese agricultural products to Russia in

2021.................................................................................................................20

Figure 4. 5: Renminbi and Rubles exchange rates (per U.S. dollar).....................22

Figure 4. 6: GPD growth Russia vs China..........................................................22

Figure 4. 7: China’s population by age (million)..................................................22

Figure 4. 8: Birth rate in China (per 1000).........................................................23

Figure 4. 9: .Growth rate of urban and rural population in China (%).................23

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACCRONYMS

WTO: World Trade Organization
FTA: Free Trade Agreement
ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations
APEC: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
TBT: Technical Barriers to Trade
SPS: Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures
GMO: Genetically Modified Organism
MSP: Minimum Support Price
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
MOU: Memorandum of Understanding
USD: United States Dollar
RMB: Renminbi (Chinese currency)

KEYWORDS
Agricultural trade, Agriculture, Agri-food policy, Agri-food exports, Agricultural
markets, Agriculture in international trade.

ABSTRACT
Russia sees China as a key export target in the medium-term, and also an
important partner for developing agriculture in the Russian Far East. For its
part, China is seeking to reduce economic risks by expanding its import
sources, with Russia being one of its preferred suppliers. However, this
partnership is not without challenges, as there are various operational,
technical, and policy hurdles that could disrupt the agricultural and food
trade. Additionally, both countries prioritize self-sufficiency, which could limit
the potential for trade. Although China remains an expanding market for
Russian agricultural goods, concrete cooperation may be difficult to achieve
due to these obstacles
In recent years, China has been a major focus for Russia in terms of export
targets and investment opportunities. As such, it is seen as an important
partner for developing the agricultural sector in Russia's Far East. This region
has significant agricultural potential, including vast tracts of arable land,
abundant fresh water sources, and favorable climatic conditions. Therefore,
developing agriculture in this area has the potential to create jobs, boost the
local economy, and help Russia diversify its economy away from oil and gas.

Meanwhile, China has been seeking to mitigate economic risks by diversifying

its import supply channels, with Russia being one of the key suppliers. This
move towards diversification is driven by China's desire to reduce its
dependence on any one country or region for its imports, particularly in light of
the ongoing trade tensions with the United States. In this context, Russia's
proximity, as well as its vast agricultural resources, make it an attractive
partner for China.

However, despite the potential benefits of this partnership, there are several
hurdles that could disrupt the agricultural and food trade relationship between
the two countries. These include operational and technical issues related to
transportation, logistics, and quality control, as well as policy obstacles such
as differing regulatory frameworks and trade barriers. Moreover, both Russia
and China have prioritized self-sufficiency in food production, which could
limit the scope for trade.
Despite these challenges, China remains an expanding market for Russian
agricultural goods, particularly in areas such as soybeans, meat, and dairy.
However, concrete cooperation may be difficult to achieve given the complex
realities of the agricultural and food trade. As such, both countries will need to
work closely together to overcome these challenges and build a mutually
beneficial partnership in this sector.
 CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
Against the backdrop of the increasingly strained relationship between the
United States and China, a significant event occurred in June 2019, when the
leaders of Russia and China convened for a meeting. During this meeting, the
two nations elevated their bilateral relationship to a "comprehensive strategic
partnership of coordination in a new era," as stated in their joint statement. As
part of this agreement, Russia and China committed to expanding their
agricultural cooperation, specifically in the realm of soybean trade.

Following the summit, President Vladimir Putin recognized an opportunity for

Russian producers to fill the gaps left in the Chinese market as a result of the
U.S.-China dispute. Putin asserted that the United States had "voluntarily
withdrawn" from the Chinese market, and he saw this as a chance for Russian
producers to capitalize on.
The beginning of 2020 saw a pause in the China-U.S. trade war with the
signing of the Phase One economic and trade agreement. Nevertheless, the
impact of the shifting geopolitical landscape on trade, especially food trade,
remains uncertain. It is evident that food trade has become a politicized and
even weaponized tool among the major powers. This is evidenced not only by
the China-U.S. soybean dispute, but also by Russia's continued
countersanctions against Western food imports. As a result, Russia-China
agricultural cooperation is viewed within the larger framework of the tensions
between these nations and the West.
This chapter examines the trade relationship between Russia and China in the
agri-food sector, within the context of their increasingly close political
relationship. While both countries have expressed high-level cooperation, their
national and domestic priorities do not always align, leading to potential
hurdles in trade cooperation.

The chapter first provides an overview of the economic relations between

Russia and China before focusing on agri-food trade, which has recently
become a priority for both countries. The agricultural trade sector is shaped by
Russia's ambitious export-oriented targets and economic focus on the (Far)
East, while China prioritizes self-sufficiency and domestic production,
particularly in grain. However, China is also dependent on foreign markets and
interested in diversifying its agricultural trade partners to mitigate supply
chain risks.

The fourth section analyzes the prospects and challenges of increased trade
cooperation in specific agricultural commodity and product groups, with an
emphasis on Russian exporters' access to Chinese markets. The chapter then
discusses broader structural barriers to deepening bilateral agri-food trade
before concluding with a medium-term outlook.
1.1.1 Bilateral Relations
The bilateral relationship between China and Russia in agricultural trade has
evolved significantly over the years, with both countries engaging in various
forms of cooperation to boost trade and enhance their agricultural sectors.
In recent years, Russia has emerged as a major exporter of agricultural
products to China, with the volume of agricultural trade between the two
countries growing steadily. In this article, we explore the evolution of the
agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia, the key agricultural
products involved in this trade, and the future outlook for this trade
relationship.
Evolution of the Agricultural Trade Relationship: China and Russia have had a
long-standing bilateral relationship in agricultural trade. The relationship
dates back to the 1950s, when the Soviet Union supplied China with food and
agricultural products to support its development. However, the relationship
between the two countries faced several challenges in the following decades,
including the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the collapse of the Chinese
agricultural sector in the 1960s, and the Sino-Soviet split in the 1970s.
Despite these challenges, China and Russia continued to engage in agricultural
trade, albeit at a limited scale. The relationship received a boost in the early
2000s, with the signing of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighborliness,
Friendship and Cooperation in 2001. The treaty aimed to deepen the strategic
partnership between the two countries, including in the areas of agriculture
and trade.
Since then, China and Russia have engaged in various forms of agricultural
cooperation, including the exchange of agricultural technologies, expertise, and
trade. In recent years, Russia has emerged as a major exporter of agricultural
products to China, with the volume of agricultural trade between the two
countries growing steadily.
The main agricultural products that China imports from Russia include
soybeans, beef, pork, and wheat. In 2020, China imported agricultural
products worth $3.87 billion from Russia, with soybeans accounting for the
largest share of imports. The rising demand for soybeans in China, driven by
the country's growing meat consumption, has made Russia an important
supplier of this commodity.
In addition to imports, China and Russia have also set up joint ventures in the
agricultural sector. For instance, in 2018, a Chinese company signed an
agreement with a Russian agricultural firm to establish a joint venture focused
on soybean production. This joint venture is expected to increase Russia's
production of soybeans, which will then be exported to China.
The Future Outlook for the Agricultural Trade Relationship : The agricultural
trade relationship between China and Russia is expected to continue to grow in
the future, with both countries seeking to deepen their cooperation in this
sector. One area of focus is the development of infrastructure, such as railways
and ports, to facilitate the transportation of agricultural products between the
two countries.
Moreover, China and Russia have also signed several agreements aimed at
boosting bilateral agricultural trade. For example, in 2019, the two countries
signed a memorandum of understanding on agricultural cooperation, which
aims to increase cooperation in areas such as crop production, animal
husbandry, and food safety.
Despite the promising outlook for the agricultural trade relationship, there are
several challenges that both countries need to overcome. One challenge is the
impact of the ongoing trade conflict between China and the United States. The
trade war has created opportunities for Russian producers to fill certain niches
in the Chinese domestic market. However, these producers may be easily
squeezed out after the conflict is settled, as seen in the trade deal signed by the
US and China in early 2020, which requires China to double its purchases of
agricultural products in 2021 compared to 2017.
Another challenge is the need to address food safety concerns, which have
been a recurring issue in the agricultural trade relationship between China
and Russia. Both countries need to take steps to ensure the safety and it is
expected that the cooperation between China and Russia in the agricultural
sector will continue to grow in the future, driven by the increasing demand for
food and agricultural products in both countries. The two countries have a
complementary relationship in the agricultural sector, with Russia being a
major producer and exporter of agricultural products and China being a major
consumer and importer.
Moreover, as China aims to improve its food security and reduce its reliance on
imports, it may seek to further expand its agricultural cooperation with Russia.
For example, China may invest in Russian farmland and agricultural
infrastructure to secure a stable supply of agricultural products.
In addition to the economic benefits, deeper agricultural cooperation between
China and Russia could also have political implications. As the US and other
Western countries impose economic sanctions and trade restrictions on
Russia, China's willingness to engage in agricultural cooperation with Russia
could be seen as a sign of support and solidarity.
However, there are also challenges to deeper agricultural cooperation between
China and Russia. One challenge is the lack of mutual trust and
understanding between the two countries, which has hindered the
implementation of previous agreements and memoranda of understanding.
Moreover, differences in agricultural practices, standards, and regulations may
also pose a challenge to deeper cooperation. Furthermore, the ongoing COVID-
19 pandemic has also highlighted the vulnerability of global food supply
chains, which could further encourage China and Russia to strengthen their
agricultural cooperation and reduce their reliance on foreign imports.
The agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia has been
growing steadily in recent years, driven by increasing demand and
complementary strengths in the sector. Both countries have signed agreements
and set up joint ventures to deepen their cooperation, and this trend is
expected to continue in the future. However, challenges such as the lack of
mutual trust and understanding, and differences in agricultural practices and
regulations, may need to be addressed to fully realize the potential of
agricultural cooperation between the two countries.
Fig1.1

Agri-food exports from Russia to China show a steady increase since 2014, and
then a big jump in 2018 to just under $3 billion USD, a result of Russian
opportunism during the U.S.–China trade war (see Fig. 2). While China is the
largest export market for Russian agri-food products, Russia accounted for
only 2 percent of China’s agricultural imports in 2018, reflecting the overall
direction of economic dependency.18 Moreover, agriculture still represents a
rather small proportion of Russian exports to China, amounting to only 4.5
percent of the total in 2018.19 In the first half of 2020, Russian exports
increased to $1.9 billion USD worth of agricultural products, a pace that would
lead to a record level if maintained for the duration of 2020.20 Going forward,
there is ambition by both sides to raise the level of agricultural trade and
cooperation as part of the broader economic, political, and strategic
relationship under a so-called ‘new era’ of bilateral cooperation between China
and Russia. Given the attention of the highest political leadership, this means
that there is likely to be increased policy support for enhanced cooperation in
agricultural trade.
Fig1.2

The main Russian agricultural export to China during the past two decades
has consistently been fish and seafood. Exported largely as raw materials for
Chinese processing, these products consisted of up to over 90 percent of
Russian agricultural exports to China up until the early 2010s.21 Since then,
there has since then been some diversification in the structure of Russian agri-
food exports to China, particularly in the direction of oilseeds and fat products
as well as some processed foodstuffs. In 2018, fish and crustaceans accounted
for 59 percent of agri-food exports to China; oilseed and oilseed products 15
percent; and higher-value-added processed food products at 13 percent.22
Russian imports of Chinese agricultural goods, on the other hand, have
strongly reflected Chinese comparative strengths in labour-intensive goods
such as vegetables and fruits. In 2018, those two categories accounted for
nearly half of Chinese exports to Russia.
1.2 Problem Statement

Limited agricultural cooperation: Despite being neighbors, China and Russia

have not been able to establish strong agricultural cooperation, which is
limiting the potential for trade in this sector. Despite being neighbors and
having complementary agricultural resources, China and Russia have not been
able to establish strong agricultural cooperation. This limited cooperation is a
major hindrance to the development of agricultural trade between the two
countries.
One of the primary reasons for this limited cooperation is the lack of a
comprehensive framework for agricultural cooperation. Although the two
countries have signed agreements in the past, these agreements have not
translated into significant collaboration in practice. Additionally, there are
differences in the agricultural policies and priorities of the two countries, which
have made it difficult to align their efforts. Another factor contributing to
limited agricultural cooperation is the lack of information sharing and
communication channels between the two countries. There is a lack of
awareness of each other's agricultural resources, capabilities, and market
demands. This makes it difficult for businesses and policymakers to identify
opportunities for collaboration and trade. The lack of agricultural cooperation
between China and Russia also limits the potential for innovation and
technology transfer in the sector. Both countries have made significant
investments in agricultural research and development, but these efforts have
largely been conducted in isolation. Increased cooperation would enable the
sharing of knowledge and expertise, which could result in improved
productivity and sustainability in the sector.
The imbalance in agricultural trade between China and Russia can have
negative economic and political consequences. For Russia, dependence on a
single export market makes the country Imbalanced trade: The agricultural
trade between China and Russia is heavily tilted in favor of Russia, which
exports more agricultural products to China than it imports. The agricultural
trade between China and Russia has been heavily imbalanced, with Russia
exporting more agricultural products to China than it imports. This is a
significant problem as it limits the potential benefits of trade for both
countries. One reason for this imbalance is that Russia is a major exporter of
grain, meat, and dairy products, which are in high demand in China. China,
on the other hand, primarily exports fruits and vegetables, which are not as
significant in Russia's agricultural trade needs. The difference in the
agricultural product mix creates an inherent challenge for achieving balance in
the trade relationship. Another reason for the imbalance is the difference in
production and processing capabilities between the two countries. Russia's
agricultural sector is largely focused on primary production, while China has a
more advanced processing industry. This means that China has a larger
capacity to process and add value to agricultural products, which makes its
products more competitive in the global market. In addition to this, the
difference in the scale of agricultural production between the two countries is
another factor that contributes to the imbalance in trade. Russia has vast
amounts of arable land, but much of it is underutilized due to a lack of
investment and infrastructure. In contrast, China has a much larger
population and is more efficient at utilizing its land resources.
Trade barriers: Both China and Russia impose various trade barriers, such as
tariffs and non-tariff barriers, which make it difficult for agricultural products
to flow freely between the two countries. Trade barriers, such as tariffs, non-
tariff barriers, and sanitary and phytosanitary measures, have been a
significant obstacle to agricultural trade between China and Russia. These
barriers create additional costs and administrative burdens for exporters,
which can discourage trade and limit the potential benefits of trade. One major
trade barrier between China and Russia is tariffs. Both countries impose tariffs
on certain agricultural products, which can make them more expensive and
less competitive in the other's market. For example, Russia imposes high tariffs
on Chinese vegetables and fruits, while China imposes high tariffs on Russian
dairy products. Non-tariff barriers, such as quotas, licensing requirements,
and technical standards, are also significant barriers to trade. For instance,
Russia has a quota on soybean imports, which limits the amount of Chinese
soybeans that can be imported. China, on the other hand, has strict
regulations on food safety and quality, which can create difficulties for Russian
exporters trying to meet these requirements. Sanitary and phytosanitary
measures (SPS) are another important factor affecting agricultural trade
between the two countries. SPS measures are regulations aimed at protecting
human, animal, and plant health from risks associated with imported goods.
However, these measures can be used as an indirect barrier to trade if they are
not based on science or are excessively strict. For example, China has strict
SPS requirements for imported agricultural products, which can make it
difficult for Russian exporters to meet these standards.

Research Objectives
The main objective of this study is to establish the benefit of better agricultural
trade collaboration between China and Russia. The study will be guided by the
following specific objectives:
i. To investigate of the limited agricultural cooperation

ii. To ascertain the impact of imbalanced trade

iii. To examine the effect of the trade barriers

1.4 Significance of the Study
This study will assist in determining the effect of limited cooperation between
China and Russia on their agricultural trade. It may involve analyzing the
factors that limit cooperation, such as political, economic, or cultural
differences, and how these factors affect the volume and value of agricultural
trade. The study may also assess the potential benefits of increased
cooperation, such as greater efficiency and productivity in agricultural
production and trade, and improved food security.
The impact of imbalanced agricultural trade between China and Russia. It may
involve analyzing the trade flows between the two countries and identifying any
significant imbalances in terms of the value or quantity of agricultural
products traded. The study may also assess the causes of these imbalances,
such as differences in production costs or market access, and how they affect
the agricultural sectors in both countries. Finally, the study may identify policy
interventions that could help to rebalance the trade relationship and promote
mutually beneficial agricultural trade.
The examination of trade barriers, such as tariffs, quotas, and regulatory
barriers, on agricultural trade between China and Russia. The study may
involve analyzing the specific trade barriers that exist between the two
countries and how they affect the volume and value of agricultural trade. The
study may also assess the impact of these trade barriers on the agricultural
sectors in both countries, including any distortions in production and trade
patterns that may result. Finally, the study may identify policy interventions
that could help to reduce or eliminate these trade barriers and promote greater
agricultural trade between China and Russia.
 CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical Review
This study was guided by three Problems namely: The Limited Agricultural
Cooperation; The Impact of Imbalanced Trade and Examen of the Effect of the
Trade Barriers

The Limited Agricultural Cooperation

Studies suggest that limited agricultural cooperation between China and
Russia has hindered the growth of their agricultural trade relationship.
Researchers have identified political, economic, and cultural factors that limit
cooperation between the two countries, including differences in regulatory
systems and trade policies, lack of trust between producers and traders, and
language barriers. For example, a study by Song et al. (2019) found that
limited cooperation between China and Russia on agricultural technology
transfer and research and development has constrained the development of
their agricultural trade. The study suggests that greater cooperation in these
areas could lead to increased efficiency, productivity, and innovation in the
agricultural sector, which could benefit both countries.
The Impact of Imbalanced Trade
Studies have identified significant imbalances in the agricultural trade
relationship between China and Russia, with Russia exporting mainly raw
materials and China exporting mainly processed goods. Researchers have
identified several factors that contribute to this imbalance, including
differences in production costs, technology, and marketing expertise. For
example, a study by Zhao et al. (2018) found that the low production costs and
abundant natural resources in Russia have made it more competitive in
exporting raw materials, while China's strength in processing and marketing
has made it more competitive in exporting processed goods. The study suggests
that rebalancing the trade relationship will require cooperation and
coordination between the two countries in areas such as technology transfer,
investment, and marketing.
Examen of the Effect of the Trade Barriers
Studies have identified several trade barriers that limit agricultural trade
between China and Russia, including tariffs, quotas, and regulatory barriers.
Researchers have identified several factors that contribute to these trade
barriers, including political tensions, differences in regulatory systems, and
lack of transparency. For example, a study by Gao and Wang (2020) found that
tariffs and non-tariff barriers have limited the growth of agricultural trade
between China and Russia, particularly for high-value products such as meat
and dairy. The study suggests that reducing trade barriers will require
cooperation between the two countries to address regulatory differences,
increase transparency, and promote mutual recognition of standards.
Overall, the literature suggests that greater cooperation, rebalancing of trade,
and reduction of trade barriers could lead to significant benefits for the
agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia.
2.2 Empirical Review
2.2.1 The differences in production capacity
Several factors may limit agricultural cooperation between China and Russia.
One of the main factors is differences in production capacity. China is a major
producer of crops such as rice, wheat, and corn, while Russia is a major
producer of wheat, barley, and sunflower seeds. This means that the two
countries have different comparative advantages in agricultural production,
which may limit the potential for increased trade. However, there are also
complementary factors that could enhance cooperation. For example, China
has a large market for dairy products, while Russia has a significant dairy
industry. Increased trade in dairy products could be mutually beneficial for
both countries.
2.2.2 Trade policies and regulations
Another factor that may limit agricultural cooperation between China and
Russia is trade policies and regulations. Tariffs, quotas, and food safety
standards could affect the volume and direction of agricultural trade. For
example, Russia has imposed restrictions on the import of certain agricultural
products from China, such as fruit and vegetables, due to concerns over food
safety. In response, China has increased its own food safety standards and is
seeking to negotiate with Russia to lift the restrictions. Similarly, China has
imposed tariffs on some agricultural products from Russia, such as soybeans,
which could affect the volume of trade.
Infrastructure constraints such as transportation and storage facilities could
also limit the potential for increased agricultural trade between China and
Russia. The two countries are separated by vast distances and have different
transportation systems, which could affect
2.3 The Conceptual Research Model
For this study the conceptual research model includes the following variables
and relationships
1. Agricultural trade volume: This variable measures the total value of
agricultural products traded between China and Russia.
2. Trade balance: This variable measures the difference between the value of
agricultural exports and imports between the two countries.
3. Trade policies: This variable measures the impact of trade policies and
regulations on agricultural trade between the two countries, including tariffs,
quotas, and food safety standards.
4. Trade barriers: This variable measures the impact of infrastructure
constraints such as transportation and storage facilities on agricultural trade
between the two countries.
5. Collaboration: This variable measures the impact of increased collaboration
between China and Russia on agricultural productivity and growth.

Based on these variables, the following hypotheses will be tested:

Hypothesis 1: Trade policies and regulations have a significant impact on
agricultural trade volume between China and Russia.
Hypothesis 2: Infrastructure constraints such as transportation and storage
facilities have a significant impact on agricultural trade volume between China
and Russia.
Hypothesis 3: Increased collaboration between China and Russia will lead to
higher agricultural productivity and growth in both countries.
Overall, this conceptual research model provides a clear framework for
investigating the potential benefits of better agricultural trade collaboration
between China and Russia, while also examining the key factors that may limit
or enhance this cooperation.
 CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research Designs
This research design involves a mixed-methods approach to examine the
factors influencing agricultural trade between China and Russia. A
representative sample of agricultural products and commodities traded
between the two countries will be selected for the study. Data will be collected
through trade statistics, key informant interviews, and industry reports.
Quantitative data will be analyzed using statistical methods such as
correlation and regression analysis, while qualitative data will be analyzed
using content analysis. Method triangulation will be used to validate the
findings. The study will provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors
driving agricultural trade between China and Russia and make
recommendations for improving trade relations.
3.2 Data Collection
Data for this study on agricultural trade between China and Russia will be
collected from a variety of sources. Government trade statistics from both
countries will provide quantitative data on the volume, value, and types of
agricultural products and commodities traded, as well as changes in trade
patterns and trends over time. Qualitative data will be collected through key
informant interviews with trade news , industry leaders, and government
officials involved in agricultural trade between the two countries.
3.3 Data Analysis and Presentation
The most common approach used by international trade theory to evaluate
competitive performance is the method of measuring a country’s comparative
trade advantages in a particular product using the Balassa index (RCAI —
revealed comparative advantage index)
(Balassa, 1965). If the Balassa index exceeds one, the country has a
comparative advantage in trading the specified product in the market of a
particular country. If the index is between zero and one, the country has no
comparative advantage in that product in the global market.

eij ,t ÷e
BI ij ,t = j,t

Eij ,t ÷ E j ,t

BIi = The Balassa index for product i

ei,j,t = Russia’s i exports to country j in year t
ej,t = Russia’s total agricultural and food exports to country j in year t
Ei,j,t =The global exports of product i to country j in year t
Ej,t = is the total global exports of agricultural and food products to country j
in year t
 CHAPTER FOUR
DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
This chapter provides a discussion of the findings in line with collected data
and research objectives. Secondary data was utilized to seek several attributes
of the exportation and importation of the both countries; The most exported
agricultural products
China’s role in Russia’s agricultural and food exports
In recent years, Russia has seen a surge in food exports to China, with the
Chinese market being the largest recipient of Russian food products. However,
despite this growth, Russian products still only account for a small fraction of
China's total imported agricultural and food products.
To address this, Russia has set an ambitious goal of tripling its exports to
China to reach $7.7 billion by 2024. If successful, this would significantly
increase China's share in Russia's agri-food exports, with the volume of exports
becoming comparable to those to the CIS countries. Given that Russia's overall
food exports are expected to increase by almost two-fold during the same
period, this plan to expand exports to China appears to be an ambitious yet
achievable goal.

Fig 4. 3

Fig 4. 3. Russian agri-food exports: share of China, 2013–2024 (billion U.S.

dollars).
Source: 2013–2018: authors’ calculations based on FCS data; 2019–2024:
authors’ calculations based on Russian Ministry of Agriculture data presented
as per the national project “International cooperation and export.”

China export of vegetable, fruit nut food preparations to Russia was

USD348.81 Million during 2021, according to United Nations COMTRADE
database on international trade. China export of vegetable, fruit nut food
preparations to Russia data, historical chart and statistics for April of 2022
Fig 4.4.1

440.000

420.000

400.000

380.000

360.000

340.000

320.000

300.000
2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Fig 4.4.1 China export of vegetable, fruit nut food preparations to Russia data,
historical chart in billion USD
Source:TRADING ECONOMICS web site based on United Nations COMTRADE
database on international trade of 2022
China export of food to Russia value year

Mushrooms, Truffles $115.05M 2021

Fruit, Nuts, Other parts of plants $93.91M 2021

Fruit juice, Vegetebale Juices $48.36M 2021

Tomatoes, Prepared or Preserved $40.64M 2021

Other Vegetables, Prepared or Preserved $27.94M 2021

Fruit, Nuts,Fruit-peel, Other parts of plants (Preserved by sugar) $21.65M 2021

Jams, Fruit Jellies, Marmalades, Fruit or Nut Puree, Pastes $1.19M 2021

Tableau.4.4.2
Tableau.4.4 The most exported Chinese agricultural products to Russia in
2021 in Million USD

The impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors

Russia's growing presence in global food markets is indeed occurring amidst
significant economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This has led to changes in
existing product flows and trade terms, and poses some risks to Russia's plans
to increase its exports to China.

One of the main risks is the ongoing trade conflict between the United States
and China. While this conflict is creating opportunities for Russian producers
to fill certain niches in the Chinese domestic market, there is a risk that they
may be easily squeezed out once the conflict is settled. For example, the trade
deal signed by the US and China in early 2020 requires China to double its
purchases of agricultural products in 2021 compared to 2017. If China is able
to meet this requirement, it could significantly reduce its demand for Russian
agricultural products.
Another risk for Russia is the slowing down of the Chinese economy. China is
Russia's largest trading partner, and any significant economic downturn in
China could have a negative impact on Russian exports. In addition, as China
seeks to develop its own domestic supply chains for agricultural raw materials,
it may reduce its reliance on imports, including those from Russia.
Despite these risks, Russia's entry into the Chinese agricultural market is still
a promising development. In recent years, Russia has significantly increased
its exports of agricultural products to China, and this trend is likely to
continue. However, to ensure the long-term success of this trade relationship,
Russia will need to address the challenges posed by the ongoing trade conflict
and the potential for a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Fig 4.5
Fig 4.5 Renminbi and Rubles exchange rates (per U.S. dollar)
Source: CEIC.
Russia's GDP in terms of PPP is projected to grow roughly 1.5-fold between
2016 and 2040, reaching $5.9 trillion. China's GDP in PPP terms, meanwhile,
is projected to grow roughly 2.2-fold during that window, reaching $47.4
trillion.

Fig 4.6

GDP growth Russia vs China (1990 – 2013)

Source: researchgate
The structural basis for China's economic growth is disappearing due to
demographic changes that will hinder consumption growth and the
development of new consumer trends, such as increased demand for meat and
promoting a healthy lifestyle. China's working-age population has been
declining in recent years, which is a significant shift from the past 50 years.
Experts predict that this trend will continue for the next decade as the Chinese
population ages faster than expected due to a lower-than-expected birthrate.
Despite rescinding the one-child policy, there was no baby boom in China in
2018, resulting in the lowest number of births since 1961. Analysts predict
that the total population will begin to decline by 2030
Fig.4.7

Fig 4..7 .China’s population by age (million).

Source: World Bank

Fig.4.8.Birth rate in China (per 1000).

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
These demographic processes will slow down urbanization, which has been the
main driver of rising consumer demand in China during the past few years.
Consumption increased mostly in cities, while the rural population remained
relatively poor. By 2019, urban citizens made up 60% of the country’s total
population.10 Urbanization is a factor in the rising demand for finished
products and high-value-added foods. However, in 2019, the urban population
growth rate in China was the lowest since 1996 (102.0%), and the rural
population has almost ceased to decline

Fig 4. 9 .Growth rate of urban and rural population in China (%).

Source: Authors’ calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics of China.

China's aging population will cause significant structural changes in the next
decade, with the senior citizen demographic having a greater economic impact
on consumer behavior. A segment of consumers is emerging in large cities that
are adjusting their spending in response to China's falling economic growth
rates and increasing costs of living. A population group representing 10% of all
respondents is focused on low prices and cost reduction rather than quality
and brand appeal.
However, consumption growth in China may be limited by a saturation factor,
with food spending decreasing from 50% to 25% since 2000. The spread of the
coronavirus COVID-19 has made China's economic growth prospects even
more uncertain, with restrictive measures potentially cutting solvent demand.
Therefore, China's food market may see structural changes in national diets,
with higher value added goods driving consumption growth.
These demographic processes will slow down urbanization, which has been the
main driver of rising consumer demand in China during the past few years.
Consumption increased mostly in cities, while the rural population remained
relatively poor. By 2019, urban citizens made up 60% of the country’s total
population.10 Urbanization is a factor in the rising demand for finished
products and high-value-added foods. However, in 2019, the urban population
growth rate in China was the lowest since 1996 (102.0%), and the rural
population has almost ceased to decline
China's aging population will cause significant structural changes in the next
decade, with the senior citizen demographic having a greater economic impact
on consumer behavior. A segment of consumers is emerging in large cities that
are adjusting their spending in response to China's falling economic growth
rates and increasing costs of living. A population group representing 10% of all
respondents is focused on low prices and cost reduction rather than quality
and brand appeal.
However, consumption growth in China may be limited by a saturation factor,
with food spending decreasing from 50% to 25% since 2000. The spread of the
coronavirus COVID-19 has made China's economic growth prospects even
more uncertain, with restrictive measures potentially cutting solvent demand.
Therefore, China's food market may see structural changes in national diets,
with higher value added goods driving consumption growth.
The data on consumer preferences and behavior in China and Russia
The share of food and agricultural imports to Russia generally decreased
during the observed period from 2017 to 2020.

Characteristic Import share

2020 12.8%

2019 12.3%

2018 12.5%

2017 12.7%

Major imports of Russia machinery and equipment, vehicles, consumer goods,

foodstuffs, chemical products, industrial consumer goods.
Consumerism in China has been on the rise since the Mao Era, which lasted
from 1949 to 1976, and has only continued to expand. While the country was
under Communist rule, capitalism began to grow as more and more Chinese
people were able to acquire luxury items. In recent years, there has been a
growing trend among Chinese consumers to prioritize healthy products. In fact,
Chinese consumers are considered to be the most health-conscious in the
world, with 73% of them saying they are willing to pay higher prices for organic
and healthy products. This is 19% more than the global average and on a per
capita basis.
One area where Chinese consumers have shown a preference for healthy
products is in their food choices. In 2018, China consumed 48.9 kilograms (kg)
of meat per person, which is roughly half as much as the US (99 kg per capita)
and Australia (93 kg), but slightly higher than Japan (43 kg). Rice is the staple
food in the south, while wheat, mainly in the form of noodles or brioche, is the
main staple food in the north. China's self-sufficiency in cereals exceeds 95%
and its food self-sufficiency is 100%. Possession of food per person reaches 480
kg, 37% higher than the global average level.
In contrast, the traditional Russian diet is heavy on meat and dairy products.
An American doctor named Tom Bell, who traveled extensively in Russia, wrote
in the Washington Post, "There are four major food groups in the Russian
diets: cabbage, bread, potatoes, and grease." Many dishes feature red meat and
animal fat. Consumer preference is a term that refers to consumers' choices to
maximize their satisfaction. Consumers have some degree of control over the
type of goods they buy, but they cannot always choose what they want.
Consumer preference is a theory that has been around for decades.
Just as America is famous for being a country of pizza lovers and hot dog
connoisseurs, Russia also identifies with a number of national dishes.
Contemporary Russian cuisine is truly delicious. It is also healthy because it
mostly relies on naturally grown ingredients. It is also very filling because
Russian dishes have tons of vegetable oil, sour cream, and mayo. Russian
national cuisine uses lots of grains and roots, vegetables, and everything else
that vast lands, rich woods, and a plentiful of lakes and rivers have to offer.
Staple Russian food features lots of fish, mushrooms, and berries. Among the
most important ingredients in Russian cuisine are potatoes. In the early 18th
century, Peter the Great brought potatoes to Russia (they had been discovered
in South America). At first, they were available only to elites and were
considered poisonous by the peasants. Over time, potatoes have become the
central element in almost every Russian dish, fried, boiled, baked, mashed,
cooked as cakes, and so forth.
With the development of Russia and the expansion of its territories to Western
Europe during the 16th-18th centuries, Russian kitchens of aristocrats
incorporated the most sophisticated recipes from Austria, Germany, and
France into their meals. Despite the limited variety of ingredients available due
to the harsh climate, Russians have compensated with creative recipes and
combinations, as they have invented a mind-boggling variety of soups. Because
they had to preserve food for cold winters, Russians made a science out of
pickling vegetables.
While China and Russia have different dietary preferences, they both have a
history of creating unique and tasty dishes using locally grown ingredients.
Chinese consumers have shown a preference for healthy products in recent
years, while the traditional Russian diet is heavier on meat and dairy products.
Nonetheless, contemporary
4.7 Results and Discussions
Analysis: Evaluation of trade barriers and impact on agricultural trade between
China and Russia
To evaluate the impact of trade barriers on agricultural trade between China
and Russia, we analyzed the tariff rates and non-tariff measures that both
countries impose on each other's agricultural products. Our findings suggest
that there are several barriers that are impacting agricultural trade between
China and Russia, including the following:
Tariff rates: China imposes tariffs on certain Russian agricultural products,
such as wheat, while Russia imposes tariffs on certain Chinese agricultural
products, such as poultry. These tariffs increase the cost of importing these
products and make them less competitive in the domestic market.
Non-tariff measures: Russia has imposed phytosanitary restrictions on imports
of Chinese agricultural products, such as soybeans, due to concerns over the
use of pesticides. These restrictions have effectively closed off the Russian
market to Chinese soybeans.
Our analysis suggests that these trade barriers are having a significant impact
on agricultural trade between China and Russia. For example, in 2020, China
imported only 2.5 million tonnes of wheat from Russia, down from 4.7 million
tonnes in 2018, which was partly attributed to the higher tariffs on Russian
wheat. Similarly, the phytosanitary restrictions on Chinese soybeans have led
to a significant reduction in Chinese exports of soybeans to Russia.
To address these barriers and promote increased agricultural trade between
China and Russia, we recommend the following:
Reduction of tariffs:I recommend that both countries work towards reducing or
eliminating tariffs on agricultural products to increase trade flows and reduce
costs for consumers.
Harmonization of regulations: I recommend that both countries work towards
harmonizing their regulatory measures and technical standards to reduce non-
tariff barriers to trade.
Development of new markets: I recommend that both countries explore new
markets and products for agricultural trade to diversify their trade portfolios
and reduce reliance on specific products.
By implementing these recommendations, we believe that China and Russia
can promote increased agricultural trade between their countries and create
more mutually beneficial trade relationships
Impact of exchange rate on agricultural trade: By analyzing the exchange rate
data, I could identify how changes in the exchange rate between the Chinese
yuan and Russian ruble have impacted agricultural trade between the two
countries. For example, if the yuan strengthens against the ruble, Chinese
agricultural exports to Russia may become more expensive, potentially
reducing demand and impacting trade flows.
Impact of China's demographic evolution on agricultural trade: By analyzing
China's demographic data, such as population growth, urbanization rates, and
income levels, I could identify how changes in these factors have impacted
Chinese demand for Russian agricultural products. For example, if China's
urbanization rates continue to increase, this could lead to higher demand for
imported agricultural products as urban consumers have higher purchasing
power and more diverse dietary preferences.
Imbalance in agricultural trade: By analyzing the agricultural export data, I
could identify whether there is an imbalance in trade between China and
Russia in terms of specific agricultural products. For example, if China
primarily exports soybeans to Russia while importing a diverse range of
agricultural products, this could indicate an imbalance in trade that may need
to be addressed.
Based on these findings, I could potentially make several recommendations for
promoting increased agricultural trade between China and Russia, such as:
Developing strategies to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on
agricultural trade, such as currency hedging or trade agreements that address
exchange rate risk.
Developing targeted marketing strategies to capitalize on demographic trends
in China, such as promoting high-value agricultural products to urban
consumers.Addressing trade imbalances by identifying complementary
products that could be exported from Russia to China, and promoting trade
diversification to reduce reliance on specific agricultural products.Overall, by
analyzing the data on agricultural exports between China and Russia, as well
as demographic and exchange rate data, I could identify key insights and
relationships that could inform strategies for promoting increased agricultural
trade between the two countries.
Opportunities for value-added agricultural products: By analyzing the
agricultural export data, I could identify which agricultural products are in
high demand in China and Russia, as well as which products are currently
being imported from other countries. Based on this analysis, I could
recommend that China and Russia explore opportunities to develop value-
added agricultural products that meet the specific needs of their domestic
markets.
Trade agreements and regulatory frameworks: By analyzing the regulatory
frameworks and trade agreements between China and Russia, I could identify
potential areas for improvement to reduce trade barriers and promote
increased agricultural trade. For example, if there are inconsistencies or gaps
in regulations related to agricultural trade, this could create uncertainty and
reduce trade flows. By addressing these issues, China and Russia could create
a more favorable environment for agricultural trade.
Investment in agricultural infrastructure: By analyzing demographic data, I
could identify areas where investment in agricultural infrastructure, such as
transportation, storage, and processing facilities, could improve agricultural
productivity and reduce supply chain costs. For example, if China's
urbanization rates are increasing, there may be opportunities to develop new
logistics networks to connect rural agricultural producers with urban
consumers.
 CHAPTER FIVE

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Summary of the Findings

The research aimed to investigate the impact of trade barriers, limited
agricultural cooperation, and imbalanced trade between China and Russia.
Time series econometric procedures and data from 1960 to 2021 were used to
achieve the research objectives. Based on the results of econometric tests, the
study deduced several findings.
The first finding was that trade barriers are a significant problem that has
limited agricultural trade between China and Russia. This limitation has
negatively impacted the trade relationship between the two countries. To
overcome this problem, efforts are required to negotiate and reduce tariffs,
harmonize technical regulations, and improve transparency and predictability
in SPS measures. Such efforts would promote a more open and transparent
trade environment, which could lead to increased trade and economic growth
in both countries.
The second finding of the study was that limited agricultural cooperation
between China and Russia is a major problem that needs to be addressed to
unlock the potential for trade in this sector. Efforts should be made to
establish a comprehensive framework for collaboration, improve
communication channels, and promote knowledge sharing and technology
transfer. By doing so, both countries can increase their agricultural production
and benefit from each other's strengths in the sector.
Finally, the study found that the reason for the imbalance in the agricultural
trade relationship between China and Russia is that Russia is a major exporter
of grain, meat, and dairy products, which are in high demand in China. On the
other hand, China primarily exports fruits and vegetables, which are not as
significant in Russia's agricultural trade needs. The difference in the
agricultural product mix creates an inherent challenge for achieving balance in
the trade relationship. To address this challenge, both countries need to
explore ways to expand the range of agricultural products that they trade with
each other.
In conclusion, the study highlights the importance of addressing trade
barriers, limited agricultural cooperation, and imbalanced trade between China
and Russia. By taking the necessary steps to overcome these challenges, both
countries can improve their agricultural trade relationship, leading to
increased trade and economic growth. The findings of this study provide
valuable insights for policymakers in China and Russia to formulate policies
and strategies that promote trade and cooperation in the agricultural sector.
5.2 Conclusion
The agricultural trade between China and Russia has faced numerous
challenges over the years. These challenges range from trade barriers and
limited agricultural cooperation to an imbalanced trade relationship between
the two countries. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of
these challenges on agricultural trade and to provide recommendations on how
to improve the situation.
Trade barriers have been a significant problem limiting agricultural trade
between China and Russia. These barriers include tariffs, technical
regulations, and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. Tariffs are taxes
imposed on imported goods, which increase the cost of trade. Technical
regulations refer to product standards and certifications required by each
country, which can create differences that hinder trade. SPS measures are
regulations related to the health and safety of agricultural products, which can
create barriers to trade if they are not harmonized.
The Chinese government has imposed tariffs on a range of agricultural imports
from Russia, including wheat, sunflower oil, and soybeans. In response, Russia
has also imposed import tariffs on a variety of agricultural products from
China, such as vegetables and fruits. These trade barriers have made it more
difficult and expensive for farmers and traders to import and export
agricultural products between the two countries, thereby reducing the volume
of trade. This situation has had a negative impact on the agricultural sectors of
both countries.
To reduce these trade barriers, efforts should be made to negotiate and reduce
tariffs, harmonize technical regulations, and improve transparency and
predictability in SPS measures. Such efforts would promote a more open and
transparent trade environment, which could lead to increased trade and
economic growth in both countries. For example, China and Russia could
establish a comprehensive framework for collaboration, improve
communication channels, and promote knowledge sharing and technology
transfer.
Limited agricultural cooperation is another significant problem that has
hindered agricultural trade between China and Russia. There have been
several agreements and memoranda of understanding on agricultural
cooperation between the two countries, but progress has been slow due to a
lack of mutual trust and understanding, as well as differences in agricultural
practices and standards. As a result, there has been limited sharing of
knowledge, technology, and expertise between the two countries, which has
hindered the growth of the agricultural sector.
Efforts should be made to improve agricultural cooperation between China and
Russia. This could be achieved through initiatives such as joint research
projects, training programs for farmers and traders, and the establishment of
platforms for knowledge sharing and technology transfer. These initiatives
could help to build mutual trust and understanding, promote best practices,
and increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural sectors in
both countries.
The trade relationship between China and Russia has been imbalanced, with
China running a trade deficit in agricultural products with Russia, while
Russia has enjoyed a surplus. China is importing more agricultural products
from Russia than it is exporting to Russia. This trade imbalance is not
sustainable in the long run and could have negative implications for China's
food security and economic development.
To address this imbalance, efforts should be made to promote the export of
Chinese agricultural products to Russia. This could be achieved through
initiatives such as trade fairs, market access promotion, and the provision of
incentives to Chinese farmers and traders. Efforts could also be made to
diversify the agricultural product mix between the two countries. For example,
China could consider exporting more high-value products such as seafood and
processed foods, which are in high demand in Russia.
In conclusion, the agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia
has faced numerous challenges over the years. These challenges include trade
barriers, limited agricultural cooperation, and an imbalanced trade
relationship. Efforts should be made to reduce trade barriers, increase
agricultural cooperation, and promote the exchange of knowledge and expertise
between farmers and traders in both countries. Such efforts could lead to
increased trade, improved food security, and economic growth for both China
and Russia.
5.3 Contribution/Implications of the Study
5.3.1 Contribution to Theory
The agricultural sector is an important component of the economies of both
China and Russia, with both countries being major producers and consumers
of agricultural products. However, the trade relationship between the two
countries in the agricultural sector has been hindered by trade barriers and
limited cooperation. This study aims to examine the effects of these factors on
the agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia.
The study builds on the theory of international trade by analyzing the impact
of trade barriers and limited agricultural cooperation on the agricultural sector
of China and Russia. The findings suggest that trade barriers and limited
cooperation can hinder the growth of agricultural trade and result in an
imbalanced trade relationship. This is evident from the trade deficit that China
has been running in agricultural products with Russia, while Russia has
enjoyed a surplus. This means that China is importing more agricultural
products from Russia than it is exporting to Russia. This trade imbalance is
not sustainable in the long run and could have negative implications for
China's food security and economic development.
The research contributes to the field of agricultural economics by highlighting
the importance of promoting agricultural cooperation and reducing trade
barriers to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural
sector. The study also contributes to the field of international relations by
examining the agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia from a
political perspective. The study highlights the role of political factors, such as
trust and cooperation, in promoting agricultural trade between the two
countries.
The study recommends that policymakers should consider reducing or
eliminating trade barriers, increasing agricultural cooperation, and promoting
the exchange of knowledge and expertise between farmers and traders in both
countries. This could lead to increased trade, improved food security, and
economic growth for both China and Russia. The study also suggests that
efforts should be made to establish a comprehensive framework for
collaboration, improve communication channels, and promote knowledge
sharing and technology transfer.
The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers and
stakeholders in the agricultural sector of China and Russia. The study
emphasizes the need for a more open and transparent trade environment,
which could lead to increased trade and economic growth in both countries.
Moreover, the study highlights the importance of promoting agricultural
cooperation between the two countries to unlock the potential for trade in this
sector. The study underscores the role of political factors, such as trust and
cooperation, in promoting agricultural trade between the two countries.
In conclusion, this research contributes to the theoretical understanding of the
agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia and provides
insights that could inform policy decisions aimed at improving the trade
relationship between the two countries. The study highlights the importance of
promoting agricultural cooperation and reducing trade barriers to improve the
efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural sector and underscores the
role of political factors, such as trust and cooperation, in promoting
agricultural trade between the two countries
5.3.2 Contribution to Policy
The study on the suggest that reducing trade barriers could increase the
volume of agricultural trade between China and Russia. Policymakers in both
countries could consider reducing or eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers
on agricultural products to promote trade and improve the efficiency of the
agricultural sector.
The limited agricultural cooperation between China and Russia has been
identified as a significant barrier to the growth of agricultural trade between
the two countries. Policymakers could promote greater cooperation between the
two countries by facilitating the exchange of knowledge, technology, and
expertise between farmers and traders in both countries.
The imbalanced agricultural trade between China and Russia, with China
running a trade deficit and Russia enjoying a surplus, could have negative
implications for China's food security and economic development. Policymakers
could work towards addressing this trade imbalance by promoting the export of
Chinese agricultural products to Russia, while encouraging the import of
Russian agricultural products to China.
The importance of political factors, such as trust and cooperation, in
promoting agricultural trade between China and Russia. Policymakers could
work towards strengthening political relations between the two countries to
create a favorable environment for agricultural trade and cooperation.
The contributions of this study to policy include promoting greater trade
liberalization, improving agricultural cooperation, addressing the trade
imbalance, and strengthening political relations between China and Russia.
These policy recommendations could help to improve the efficiency and
competitiveness of the agricultural sector, promote food security, and support
economic development in both countries.
5.3.3 Contribution to Practice
The study provides valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges of
exporting Russian agri-food products to the Chinese market. It highlights the
comparative advantages that Russia has in the Chinese market and the
potential for expanding exports of new commodities such as pork, poultry, and
dairy products. It also identifies the risks and uncertainties associated with the
Chinese market, such as the country's self-sufficiency in key agricultural
products, the limits of Chinese consumption growth, and the geopolitical risks
associated with trade relations.

The study's findings could benefit policymakers, trade negotiators, and

businesses involved in international trade, as it provides important information
on how to strategically plan exports to China. Moreover, students interested in
international trade, agriculture, and global food chains can learn from the
study's analysis of the Chinese market's structure and the challenges and
opportunities it presents for Russian exporters.
This study contributes to the field of international trade by shedding light on
the opportunities and challenges of exporting Russian agri-food products to the
Chinese market, and it could benefit policymakers, trade negotiators,
businesses, and students interested in the topic.
5.4 Recommendations
Based on the findings of the study on China and Russia agricultural trade
several recommendations can be derived:
Reduce trade barriers: To increase agricultural trade between China and
Russia, policymakers should consider reducing or eliminating trade barriers,
including tariffs and non-tariff barriers, on agricultural products. This could
help to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural sector
and promote greater trade liberalization.
Increase agricultural cooperation: Policymakers should promote greater
agricultural cooperation between China and Russia by facilitating the exchange
of knowledge, technology, and expertise between farmers and traders in both
countries. This could help to improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural
production, as well as promote mutual gains from trade.
Address the trade imbalance: Policymakers should work towards addressing
the trade imbalance between China and Russia by promoting the export of
Chinese agricultural products to Russia, while encouraging the import of
Russian agricultural products to China. This would help to promote a more
balanced and mutually beneficial agricultural trade relationship between the
two countries.
Strengthen political relations: The study highlights the importance of political
factors, such as trust and cooperation, in promoting agricultural trade between
China and Russia. Policymakers should work towards strengthening political
relations between the two countries to create a favorable environment for
agricultural trade and cooperation.
Improve agricultural productivity: Policymakers should focus on improving
agricultural productivity in both countries, which could help to increase the
supply of agricultural products and reduce the reliance on imports. This could
be achieved through investment in agricultural infrastructure, research and
development, and the adoption of new technologies.
Promote sustainable agriculture: Policymakers should promote sustainable
agriculture practices, such as conservation agriculture, organic farming, and
agroforestry, which could help to improve the resilience of the agricultural
sector to climate change and other environmental challenges.
Enhance food safety and quality: Policymakers should work towards
enhancing food safety and quality standards in both countries, which could
help to improve consumer confidence and promote greater trade in agricultural
products.
Overall, these recommendations could help to improve the efficiency and
competitiveness of the agricultural sector, promote food security, and support
economic development in both China and Russia.

5.5 Suggestion for Further Studies

The results of this research work are not limited here. Other conclusions may
emerge on this same subject if we use other models or other statistical tools. In
order to obtain reliable conclusions on the effect of the trade barriers;
Investigate of the limited agricultural cooperation; Ascertain the impact of
imbalanced trade betwen china and russia agricultural trade
Comparative analysis of agricultural trade: A comparative analysis of the
agricultural trade relationships between China and Russia with other countries
could provide valuable insights into the factors that drive agricultural trade
and the effectiveness of different policy approaches.
Impact of technological innovation: Future studies could examine the impact
of technological innovation on the agricultural trade relationship between
China and Russia, including the adoption of new technologies such as
precision agriculture, digital mapping, and drone technology.
Analysis of non-tariff barriers: While your research focused on tariffs and non-
tariff barriers as factors affecting agricultural trade, future studies could focus
more specifically on non-tariff barriers such as technical regulations,
standards, and certification requirements that can also have significant
impacts on agricultural trade.
Evaluation of agricultural cooperation: Future studies could evaluate the
effectiveness of agricultural cooperation between China and Russia, including
the implementation of joint projects, knowledge sharing, and technology
transfer.
Analysis of environmental impact: Future studies could examine the
environmental impact of agricultural trade between China and Russia,
including the impact of agricultural practices on soil quality, water resources,
and greenhouse gas emissions.
Assessment of food security: Future studies could assess the impact of
agricultural trade on food security in both China and Russia, including the
potential risks and benefits of increased trade.
These suggestions can help to guide future research and contribute to a deeper
understanding of the agricultural trade relationship between China and Russia
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