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(SEMESTER 1, 2022/2023)
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1. Introduction 1
3. Conclusion 19
4. References 21
5. Appendix 22
1
1. Introduction
The article “Even Super-tight Policy is Not Bringing Down Inflation", published by The
Economist, highlights the challenges that “ Hikelandia”, which includes several countries, Chile,
Brazil, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Peru, and Poland are facing in controlling
inflation despite aggressively raising interest rates over the past years. For instance, the Central
Bank of Chile increased interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% to curb inflation in July 2021, but in
September, Chile's market prices increased by 14% year-on-year after increasing the policy rate
to 11.25%. The central bank’s preferred "core" inflation measure jumped to 11%, excluding
The article suggests that this experience casts doubt on the experts on the idea that if
other central banks, such as the European Central Bank, had also raised rates quickly last year,
world inflation would not be as high today. It also notes that the aggressive and early tightening
of monetary policy has slowed down the economy in these countries, with property markets
cooling down as mortgage rates rise, New Zealand house prices decline, South Korea house
prices stopped rising and GDP expected to decline next year. Hikelandia’s median economy
increased interest rates by 6 per cent according to the data statistics collected by The Economist,
and on November 2nd, the central bank raised rates by 0.75 per cent.
Additionally, the article implies that inflation in Hikelandia is stubborn and is growing
more scattered, affecting a broader range of goods and services. For example, South Korea's
labour-intensive service industry inflation rate in September was 4.2% year on year, the highest
since the early 2000s, while Hungary's service-industry inflation rate has increased from 7.2% to
11.5% in the last six months. Furthermore, 89% of goods in Norway's inflation basket increased
2
Most importantly, the article suggests three possibilities. First, it is possible that
expecting inflation to decline is now unrealistic and that controlling inflation would be difficult
while most currencies are weakening against the dollar, raising import prices. According to
research, there are delays between tighter monetary policy and decreasing inflation. Second, it is
possible that policymakers may not have been aggressive enough, suggesting that central banks
should have raised interest rates more aggressively. The article suggested that governments
should play a role in reducing inflation by implementing budget surplus, raising taxes, or
reducing government spending to reduce demand, even if this may be risky, as seen by Chile's
failure to lower inflation significantly while forecasting a budget surplus. Third, the article
highlighted the possibility that inflation may be more challenging to control than previously
expected. It is also believed that behavioural changes influence changes in inflation and that
In summary, the article claims that the experience of nations that tightened early and
aggressively in managing inflation puts into question the claim that if other central banks had
increased rates rapidly last year, inflation would not be as high now. Despite aggressive rate
rises, these nations are still unable to manage inflation, which is negatively impacting their
economies, while inflation remains stubborn and growing more scattered. To address this issue
of inflation, we will analyse the article by highlighting the pertinent issues mentioned above and
3
2. Analysis
In the article that we have chosen, we choose to delve into the ongoing problem of high
inflation in Chile, despite the implementation of aggressive monetary policy measures such as
raising interest rates. The author suggests that policymakers in Chile have not demonstrated
sufficient courage in their efforts to curb inflation, as suggested by the country's remaining
"Chicago Boys."
This persistent inflation has led to a slowdown in the economy, marked by declining
house prices and accelerating wage growth, creating difficulties for government and banking
agencies to reduce prices swiftly without risking public backlash from austerity measures during
a cost-of-living crisis. Additionally, the article suggests that policymakers in Chile need to be
more decisive in their efforts to address the issue of inflation. Next, the article explicitly
examines Chile's case, where the super-tight policy has failed to bring down inflation. For
instance, the Central Bank of Chile raised rates from 0.5% to 11.25%, yet prices still rose by
14%.
Additionally, it illustrates the experience of Chile with service sector inflation despite the
Goldman Sachs on Chile which found evidence that "underlying inflation momentum had picked
up again". These examples demonstrate the difficulties faced by the central bank of Chile and the
government in reducing price rises even when taking extreme measures such as increasing
4
Source: Banco Central de Chile
In summary, the author suggests that Chile's experience with super-tight policy highlights
the challenges central banks and governments face in bringing down inflation, even when taking
drastic measures. The article also presents some counterarguments or alternative explanations for
the failure of the super-tight policy to bring down inflation in Chile. One such explanation is that
there may be lags between tighter monetary policies and lower inflation, which could explain
why prices remain stubbornly high despite aggressive rate hikes. Additionally, it suggests that
the depreciation of the Chilean peso against the dollar can make imports more expensive, leading
to higher overall price levels in the country even when the Central Bank of Chile is taking
extreme measures such as increasing interest rates significantly higher than normal levels.
5
Furthermore, the author of the article cites research conducted by the Bank for International
Settlements (BIS) suggesting that households and firms closely tracking inflation over time could
lead to "behavioural changes" that entrench a new norm of high-inflation regimes rather than the
low ones seen before the pandemic crisis began. This research suggests that other factors might
affect the inflation rate in Chile and make it difficult to bring it down.
The author concluded that policymakers in Chile need to be sufficiently courageous when
it comes to raising interest rates, which has led to stubbornly high inflation and a slowdown of
the economy. This conclusion is relevant to the main issue because it suggests that even
aggressive monetary policy measures, such as increasing interest rates, may be insufficient for
bringing down prices quickly without risking public backlash from austerity policies during a
conceptual framework to comprehend and interpret the implications arising from the main issue
discussed in the article, specifically the persistently high inflation in Chile despite the
implementation of aggressive monetary policy measures such as raising interest rates. To do this,
we will examine concepts such as the money market, the IS-LM schedule, the aggregate demand
and supply, the aggregate labour demand and supply, and the production function. These
concepts will be employed to explain how changes in the monetary policy of the Central Bank of
The Central Bank of Chile's monetary policy actions, such as raising interest rates, affect
the money supply in the economy, which is reflected in the LM schedule. The money market
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schedule shows the relationship between the interest rate and the economy's output level. It also
illustrates how money supply and interest rate changes affect output levels.
In the case of the Central Bank of Chile, their decision to increase their monetary policy
rate effectively decreases the money supply in the economy by making borrowing more
aggregate demand in the economy. This action can be represented by a shift in the money supply
𝑆 𝑆
schedule (in figure 1). A decrease in the money supply schedule from 𝑀0 to 𝑀1, causes the
interest rate to increase from 𝑟0 to 𝑟1, leading to a new equilibrium at the higher interest rate. The
decrease in the money supply also creates an initial shortage of money in the economy. It should
be noted that, as previously mentioned, the decrease in the money supply also leads to a decrease
in aggregate demand.
Figure 1
7
This decrease in aggregate demand is reflected in the LM schedule in Figure 2, which
shows the relationship between the interest rate and the level of output in the economy. It can be
𝑆
observed as a shift in the LM schedule from point A, at the initial money supply (𝑀0) and
𝑆
interest rate (𝑟0), to point B, at the new money supply (𝑀1) and interest rate (𝑟0). As the money
supply decreases, the LM schedule shifts upward and to the left, resulting in increasing the
equilibrium interest rate and a decline in the level of income in the IS-LM schedules.
In Figure 2, we present the IS-LM model, which combines the LM and IS schedules. The
interest rate is illustrated on the vertical axis, and income is illustrated on the horizontal axis. The
upward-sloping LM schedule depicts the points of equilibrium for the money market, while the
downward-sloping IS schedule illustrates the equilibrium points for the product market.
Furthermore, the intersection point between the two schedules, point A in Figure 2, represents
the initial equilibrium for both markets. Additionally, factors that alter these equilibrium levels
are those that shift either the IS or the LM schedule. In this case, a decrease in the money supply
( )
In figure 2, we assume the initial IS and LM schedules are 𝐼𝑆0 and 𝐿𝑀0 𝑀0 . Income and
the interest rate are at 𝑌0 and 𝑟0, respectively. To construct the schedules based on the Central
bank of Chile's action, producing these results is straightforward. To begin with, we set the initial
equilibrium at interest rate 𝑟0 and income level 𝑌0. Next, a decrease in the money supply from
8
( ) ( )
𝑀0 to 𝑀1 will shift the LM schedule to the left from 𝐿𝑀0 𝑀0 to 𝐿𝑀1 𝑀1 . The interest rate
Figure 2
Additionally, to explain the effects of a decrease in the money supply from 𝑀0 to 𝑀1, the
decline in the money supply creates a shortage of money, which causes the interest rate to
increase. Furthermore, as the interest rate rises, investment is decreased, and this decrease causes
income to fall, with a further income-induced decrease in consumption. In other words, the LM
schedule shifts to the left, causing the equilibrium income to fall and the equilibrium interest rate
to rise.
9
Next, in figure 2, we also use the IS–LM model to analyse further the effects of monetary
policy actions on income and interest rate. Additionally, the magnitude of the effects of monetary
policy is also examined, based on the slopes of the LM schedule. The IS-LM model is used to
qualitatively evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy. By effectiveness, we mean the size of
the effect on the income of a given change in the policy variable. The crucial parameter
determining the slope of the IS schedule is the (absolute value of the) interest elasticity of
investment. Meanwhile, the crucial parameter determining the slope of the LM schedule is the
(absolute value of the) interest elasticity of money demand. The concept of elasticity refers to the
percentage change in one variable that results from a 1% change in another variable. High
elasticity refers to a high absolute value of elasticity, while low elasticity refers to a low absolute
value of elasticity.
In the case of Chile, the monetary policy action is a decrease in the money supply, which
shifts the LM schedule from 𝐿𝑀0 to 𝐿𝑀1. In this case, the LM curve would have a steeper slope,
which implies that a change in interest rate will significantly impact output and employment.
This means that monetary policy can more effectively control inflation or curb economic growth.
However, it does not necessarily mean that a tight monetary policy is effective. Meanwhile, this
would result in a flatter slope of the IS curve with the assumption that this tight monetary policy
is ineffective in curbing inflation. This is because, as the interest rate increases, the decrease in
demand and output. In conclusion, a steeper slope of the LM curve implies that the economy is
more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Thus, monetary policy would have a more substantial
impact on output and employment. Meanwhile, a flatter slope of the IS curve implies that the
10
economy is less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Thus, monetary policy would have a
In the case of Chile, the Central Bank's implementation of a tight monetary policy aimed
at curbing inflation has increased the prices of goods and services and wages. This is consistent
with the predictions of the Classical Theory of Aggregate Supply, which suggests that increases
in wages can lead to inflationary pressures as firms need to raise prices to remain profitable.
However, this tight monetary policy has been ineffective in achieving its goal of price
stability as inflation persists. This can be seen through the lens of the Keynesian Aggregate
Demand Schedule, which states that an increase in aggregate demand leads to higher levels of
economic activity and growth. However, in this case, the increase in prices and wages has led to
a decrease in aggregate demand, resulting in lower economic activity and growth levels.
In the aggregate demand and supply schedule (as shown in figure 3), the level of price of
goods and services is represented on the vertical axis, whereas the level of output is represented
on the horizontal axis. Initially, the equilibrium is at the price level, 𝑃0 and output level, 𝑌0 (at
point A). Upon the Central Bank of Chile's implementation of an increase in the monetary policy
rate, aggregate demand is likely to decrease. This is because higher interest rates make
borrowing money for investment and consumption expenditure more expensive, resulting in
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Figure 3
𝐷 𝐷
As a result, the decrease in aggregate demand causes output to fall from 𝑌0 to 𝑌1 , and the
price level to decrease from 𝑃0 to 𝑃1. This is due to the lower level of production needed by
businesses as fewer consumers are buying their products. Thus, the price level falls, and a new
However, despite the decrease in aggregate demand, there may also be some changes in
aggregate supply due to the increase in prices and wages resulting from the Central Bank of
Chile's ineffective monetary policy that fails to curb inflation and achieve price stability.
Specifically, the increase in prices and wages leads to increased production costs for firms,
𝑆 𝑆
causing the aggregate supply curve to shift upward and to the right from 𝑌1 to 𝑌2. This results in
in a new equilibrium point, point C, with an increased output level and a higher price level at 𝑃2.
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It is worth noting that the Central Bank of Chile's tight monetary policy may have contributed to
the increase in wages, which in turn affects the aggregate supply curve.
Aggregate Labour Demand and Supply Schedule illustrates the relationship between
changes in the demand for labour and the corresponding effects on wages, employment levels,
and prices. An increase in labour demand, such as increased economic activity or population
growth, leads to higher wages as employers compete for workers, ultimately resulting in
aggregate supply, such as from decreased economic activity or population decline, can cause
deflationary pressures as fewer jobs are available, reducing overall consumer spending power
In the case of Chile, the Central Bank of Chile's tight monetary policy to curb inflation
has increased the prices of goods and services and wages. This is in line with the Aggregate
Labour Demand and Supply Schedule, as the increase in production costs for firms, driven by
higher wages, leads to higher prices for goods and services. However, this policy has been
ineffective in curbing inflation, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to
The labour market equilibrium is a representation of the relationship between the quantity
of labour supplied and demanded as a function of the money wage. Two assumptions implicit in
this classical representation are perfectly flexible prices and wages and perfect information on
13
In Figure 4, we plot labour supply and labour demand on the horizontal and vertical axis,
0 0
respectively, with the initial equilibrium at the wage rate of 𝑊 and employment level of 𝑁 (at
𝐷 𝑆
point A). In the aggregate, labour supply equals labour demand, 𝑁 = 𝑁 . Given the money
wage, the firm will choose the level of employment at which 𝑊 = 𝑀𝑃𝑁 • 𝑃 that can achieve its
Figure 4
However, in the case of Chile, the action of the Central Bank of Chile implementing a
tight monetary policy led to an increase in the overall price level. This increase in prices puts
upward pressure on wages, as firms may need to raise wages in order to attract and retain
14
workers. As a result, when workers' wages rise, it increases production costs for firms. This
𝐷
causes the labour demand curve to shift downward (from 𝑁0 = 𝑀𝑃𝑁 • 𝑃0 to
𝐷
𝑁1 = 𝑀𝑃𝑁 • 𝑃1 ), decreasing the quantity of labour demanded and increasing unemployment.
Meanwhile, the number of workers willing to work remains unchanged, causing the labour
supply curve to remain unchanged, moving toward a new equilibrium point, point B, with a
higher wage level but a lower quantity of labour demanded. This is the implication of the
A production function of a firm or business creates a link between the inputs used and the
maximum number of outputs that can be produced. In other words, the production function is the
relationship showing how inputs and outputs are related to one another for any given quantity of
inputs given and the maximum number of outputs produced throughout the production process.
In the short run, the stock of capital is assumed to be fixed, as indicated by the bar over the
symbol for capital. The state of technology and the population are also assumed to be constant
over the period considered. For this short-run period, the output varies solely with variations in
When the Central Bank of Chile increases their monetary policy rate, it leads to an
increase in wages as the price of goods and services also increases. As a result, production costs
also increase, and firms need to reduce the number of products produced in order to control the
cost of production. This situation then leads to other consequences, such as a decrease in the
15
amount of labour hired as firms have to cut costs for inputs due to the production of fewer goods,
Figure 5
All of the effects mentioned above can be illustrated through the production function
graph in Figure 5. The production function is stated as Y = F (K, N), where Y represents output,
K represents capital, and N represents labour. The output is represented in the vertical axis while
labour or employment is represented in the horizontal axis. In this case, we are using this graph
to show the effects of an increase in nominal wage that is caused by the action of the Central
Bank of Chile in tightening their monetary policy. The curve is upward-sloping, indicating the
16
As can be seen from the graph, the amount of labour decreases from 𝑁0 to 𝑁1, and the
income also decreases from 𝑌0 to 𝑌1 which results from lesser labour hired due to increase in
Inflation is a persistent problem that has plagued many economies throughout history,
including the Hikelandia. In recent years, several countries have implemented monetary policies,
such as raising interest rates, in an attempt to curb rising inflation. However, as highlighted in the
article “Even super-tight policy is not bringing down inflation” by The Economist (2022), these
efforts have not been entirely successful. This raises questions about the effectiveness of
traditional monetary policies in controlling inflation and highlights the need for alternative
In the second possibility proposed in the article, the central bank should raise interest
rates more aggressively to lower inflation. However, from an Islamic perspective, the idea of
raising the interest rate to combat inflation is concerning. Islamic economics prohibits charging
promotes the concept of "risk sharing," where profits and losses are shared between the lender
and borrower. In the Holy Qur'an, Allah Almighty explicitly forbids the element of interest,
known as riba'. Riba' is the interest rate at which money is viewed as a commodity, resulting in
the accumulation of wealth in only a few hands, which then results in wealth inequality in the
whole economy (Farouq, 2012). In Islamic Shariah, there is no difference between interest and
17
usury. Rather than a commodity, money is seen as a medium of exchange in Islam. As a result,
both collecting and paying interest are forbidden in Islam, let alone adopting an entire monetary
policy based on adjusting interest rates to alleviate economic problems such as inflation, as done
In addition to the prohibition on interest, the reliance on price stability as the fundamental
purpose of monetary policy may not align with Islamic principles. According to the article, the
Central Bank of Chile's determination to control inflation resulted in interest rate increases,
which may have had a negative impact on the economy. On the other hand, policies that promote
the interests of the rich at the expense of the poor and underprivileged are not acceptable from an
of social justice and fairness, and it is important to balance the objective of controlling inflation
The issue can be addressed by adopting a more fair, equitable, participatory and inclusive
approach to monetary policy that considers the opinions and needs of all individuals in society.
For instance, the policymakers could involve representatives from various sectors of society,
monetary policy. Furthermore, an inclusive and participatory approach may consist of using
alternative indicators, including well-being and poverty measurements, to drive monetary policy
decisions rather than relying simply on conventional indicators like GDP and inflation. This
might guarantee that the central bank's monetary policy decisions are consistent with the
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3. Conclusion
In conclusion, the study of the article discusses the claim that the current level of inflation
would not be as high if other central banks had raised rates swiftly last year is disputed by the
research, which points to the experiences of nations that tightened early and aggressively to
control inflation. Because of their incapacity to contain inflation, which persists and grows
despite large rate rises, these nations' economies are suffering. This finding is relevant to the
main issue because it suggests that even aggressive monetary policy measures, like rising interest
rates, could not be sufficient to quickly cut prices without running the risk of a negative public
response in Chile during a cost-of-living crisis. As a result, Chile is still struggling to keep
By addressing some concepts and matching them with each model that can adequately
describe the issue from a macroeconomic perspective, we are able to tie the crucial components
that should be prioritised in the fight against inflation to the components in the theoretical
macroeconomics models. Every topic is described by connecting it to a specific problem that was
obtained from the article, by drawing graphs, and by describing the movement of the points and
curves that indicate the effects of the monetary policy used to address the problems.
The money market, is the first topic mentioned which is reflected in the LM schedule and
links the interest rate to the level of the economy's output, is the first idea mentioned. Second, the
IS-LM schedule shows the points at which the money and product markets reached equilibrium
as interest rates rose and the money supply shrank. Thirdly, the aggregate demand and supply
schedule illustrates the connection between the price of goods and services and output level. The
decrease in aggregate demand brought on by an increase in the monetary policy rate leads to a
reduction in output. On the other hand, the aggregate labour and demand supply schedule depicts
19
the link between the amount of labour that is supplied and demanded, as well as the wages. The
highest profit-generating level of employment is the one that the firm seeks to select. Last but not
least, the production function emphasises the connection between the quantity of inputs and
outputs used during the production process. The reduction in the quantity of inputs and outputs
Finally, after going through each issue and its associated macroeconomics concept, what
we can learn from an Islamic perspective in order to solve the issues mentioned is the
significance of using practical solutions that implement a just and equitable policy and give
priority to societal needs in achieving well-being and combating poverty through the application
of decisions and policy that are consistent with Islamic economic principles, to achieve economic
stability.
20
4. References
Banco Central de Chile. (2023). Banco Central de Chile - Statistics Database. Banco Central de
Chile Website.
https://si3.bcentral.cl/Siete/en/Siete/Cuadro/CAP_TASA_INTERES/MN_TASA_INTERES
_09/TPM_C1
Dent, T. Cooper, L. Sloan, E. Brodeur, & N. Fenton, Eds.; Tenth Edition). Person Education
Limited.
https://www.ascdegreecollege.ac.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Macroeconomics-Theories
-and-Policies.pdf
Farooq, M. (2012). Interest, Usury and its Impact on the Economy. Dialogue (Pakistan), 7(3),
266–276.
https://www.qurtuba.edu.pk/thedialogue/The%20Dialogue/7_3/Dialogue_July_September2
012_265-276.pdf
The Economist. (2022, October 23). Even super-tight policy is not bringing down inflation. The
Economist Newspaper.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/23/even-super-tight-policy-is-
not-bringing-down-inflation
21
5. Appendix
22
23
24
25
References:
The Economist. (2022, October 23). Even super-tight policy is not bringing down inflation. The
Economist Newspaper.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/23/even-super-tight-policy-is-
not-bringing-down-inflation
26
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