Pertemuan 10

SI 4222
TOPIK KHUSUS GEOTEKNIK

PERTEMUAN KE – 10
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
• PROBABILISTIC
• DETERMINITSTIC
• DEAGREGATION
PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK SIPIL

FAKULTAS TEKNOLOGI INFRASTRUKTUR DAN KEWILAYAHAN
INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI SUMATERA
SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
Part 1 : Earthquake Hazards and Seismic
Hazard Analysis
Earthquake Hazards
 60% of all deaths by

natural disasters are
caused by Earthquakes
(Shed lock and Tanner, 1999)
 In 20th century, 17000

persons per year (Chen and
Scawthorn 2002)
 Major Fatalities due to

building collapse and buried
by landslide
Earthquake Hazard
• Ground shaking
• Ground displacement along faults : surface rupture
• Ground failure : soil liquefaction, landslide, mud slide, differential soil

settlement, etc.
• Tsunami
• Floods from dam and level failures
• Fires resulting from earthquakes

Ground Shaking Hazard : Wenchuan Earthquake, China (2008)
[Magnitude = 8,0]
Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

Ground Shaking Hazard : Kashmir Earthquake, Balakot,
Pakistan (2005) [Magnitude = 7,7]

Ground Shaking Hazard : Yogyakarta Earthquake (2006)
[Magnitude = 6,2]

Surface Repture Hazard : the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan

Surface Repture Hazard : the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan

Soil liquefaction Hazard
Loss of Bearing Capacity
A building in Dagupan, Philippines

after the 1990 Luzon EQ
Overturned building in Adpazari,
Turkey in the 1999 Kocaeli EQ

Damage to Sewers
Tokachi-oki EQ, Hokkaido (2003)
Underground Pipe Failure in Baguio, Philippines
(Luzon Earthquake, 1990)
Earthquake-induced Landslide in Wenchuan
Country, China
(Wenchuan Earthquake, 2008)
Dynamic Stability of Embankment
Bhuj Earthquake 2001, Irrigation Dams
Tsunami Generated by an Earthquake
Khao Lak, Phang-Nga
The 1995 Kobe Earthquake
Fires Resulting from the Earthquake
(Kobe EQ, 1995)
Fires Resulting from the Earthquake
(Kobe EQ, 1995)
Basic Question
• Where will future earthquakes occur?
• What will be their size?
• What will be their frequency of occurrence?
• What will be the ground shaking intensity at the site produced by earthquakes
of different size, focal depth, and epicentral location?
• How will the ground motion be influenced by local soil conditions and geology?
• What will be the earthquake hazard (landslide, liquefacion, etc) produced at the
site?
• How about the susceptinility of buildings and structures to damage from the
ground shaking and ground failures?
Lack of
Resources for
Communities
Population
Natural or
Manmade Inappropriate Urbanization
Built and Unplanned
Phenomena Environment development
Disaster = Hazard . Vulnerability . Exposure
Risk
To reduce risk of disaster and increase safety, we

need to estimate hazard properly and Reduce
Vulnerability (Kerentanan)
Seismic Hazard Assessment
SEISMIC HAZARD X SEISMIC VULNERABILITY = SEISMIC RISK
• In principle, Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) can adress any natural

hazard associated with earthquakes, including ground shaking, fault rupture,
landslide, liquefaction, or tsunami.
• However, most interest is in the estimation of ground-shaking hazard, since it

causes the largest economic losses in most earthquakes.
• Moreover, of all the seismic hazard, ground motion is the predominant cause
of damage from earthquakes ; building collapses, dam failures, landslides,
and liquefactions are all the direct result of ground motion.
• The chapter, therefore, is restricted to the estimation of the earthquake ground

motion hazard.
Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA)
• Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) estimates the level of a ground-motion
intensity parameter (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, peak ground velocity,
PGV, and spectral acceleration, Sa, at different vibration periods, etc.) that
would be produced by future earthquakes.
• Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) has been widely used by engineers, regulatiors,
and planners to mitigate earthquake losses :
 Specifying seismic design levels for individual structures and building
codes
 Evaluating the seismic safety of existing facilities
 Planning for societal and economic emergencies (emergency
preparedness)
 Setting priorities for the mitigation of seismic risk
 Insurance analysis
Ground Motion Parameters
• There are many different ground motion parameters-displacement,
velocity, acceleration.
• Usually Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is considered to be the

preferred ground motion parameter.
• Seismic hazard = ground-shaking hazard = probabilitas

terjadinya guncangan tanah seismik yang berpotensi merusak
di lokasi tertentu dalam interval waktu tertentu.
0,1 g = 10% prob of exceedance in 50 years
PGA
Exposure time
980 gals = 1 G
Peak Ground Acceleration :

Index of Seismic Loading
Attenuation Function
Seismic source
Attenuation
Function
Wave Propagation to Site
Attenuation Function is a formulation to predict ground acceleration at

site bedrock based on the recorded data and statistic function.
Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE)
• Ground motion prediction equation, normally so-called as Attenuation Function, a function of
distance and magnitude with standard deviation.
• Selection of attenuation function should consider relevant geology and tectonic condition of
site, these are recommended attenuation functions based on seismic source:
1. Interface Subduction (Megathrust) :
a) Geomatrix subduction (Youngs et al., SRL, 1997)
b) Atkinson-Boore BC rock and global source subduction. (Atkinson & Boore, 2003)
c) Zhao et al., with variable Vs-30. (Zhao et al., 2006)
2. Shallow crustal, fault and shallow background:
a) Boore-Atkinson NGA. (Boore & Atkinson, 2008)
b) Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA. (Campbell & Bozorgnia, 2008)
c) Chiou-Youngs NGA. (Chiou & Youngs, 2008)
3. Benioff (deep intraslab) :
a) Atkinson-Boore intraslab seismicity world data BC-rock condition. (Atkinson-Boore, 1995)
b) Geomatrix slab seismicity rock, 1997 srl. July 25 2006. (Youngs et al., 1997)
c) Atkinson-Boore 2003 intraslab seismicity worldwide data region BC-rock condition. (Atkinson-
Boore, Wordwide 2003)
Subduction Sources – Megathrust
Geometry, Mmax, Slip-Rate, a-b value
Seismic Catalogue
Range: 10˚LU - 12˚LS dan l 90˚BT - 145˚BT
Source:
1. Nasional Earthquake Information Center U.S. Geological Survey
(NEIC-USGS); the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE),
the Bureau Central International de Seismologie (BCIS),
International Seimological Summeries (ISS), International
Seimological Center (ISC), Advance National Seismic System (ANSS-
USGS); Centennial (elocated); Relocation Cataloque (Engdahl,
1964-2005).
2. Indonesian Berau of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics
(BMKG).
3. Abe, Abe & Noguchi dan Gutenberg & Richter,
Seismic Catalogue Map
Probabilitistic vs. Deterministic
• DSHA considers the effect at a site of either single scenario
earthquake, or a relatively small number of individual earthquakes.
Challenge  the selection of a representative earthquake on which
the hazard assessment would be based.
• PSHA quantifies the hazard at a site from all earthquakes of all

possible magnitudes, at all significant distances from the site of
interest, as a probability by taking into account their frequency of
occurrence.
• Deterministic earthquake scenarios, therefore, are a subset of the

probabilistic methodology.
Return Period
Design Probability of
Earthquake Level
Live Exceedance
20% Immediate Occupancy 225 years SNI 1983

ccccccc
Live Safety
50 tahun 10% 500 years SNI 2002
(Rare Earthquake)
2% Near Collapse/ MCE

2.500 years IBC
(Very Rare Earthquake) since 2003
MCER SNI 2011 MCE +Deterministic
+ Fragility
For Buidings ASCE 2010

SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
Part 2 : Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (PSHA)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)
• Probabilitas berguna dalam mengkarakterisasi bahaya seismik karena
gempa bumi dan efeknya adalah fenomena acak.
• Analisis Bahaya Seismik Probabilistik (PSHA) memperhitungkan potensi

seismik dari sumber seismik, sifat acak dari kejadian gempa, sifat acak
dari gerakan tanah yang dihasilkan oleh gempa bumi ini, potensi
kerusakan dari gerakan tanah ini, dan ketidakpastian yang terlibat di
semua tingkat proses.
• Sebelum meluasnya penggunaan PSHA untuk menilai bahaya gempa,

Metode Deterministik (DSHA) mendominasi penilaian tersebut.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
• The analytical approach of PSHA was first developed by C.A.Cornell
in 1968.
• It was used by S.T.Algermissen et al. (USGS) for developing a
probabilistic seismic hazard map of US in 1976.
• The map was later on used as a basis for developing the US seismic
zone map in the Uniform Building Code (US) in 1988.
• The analysis procedure is currently widely accepted and used all over
the world.
Global Seismic Hazard Map
http://seismo.ethz.ch/gshap/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 50 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Return Periods
Return Periods
Return Periods
Return Periods
Return Periods
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 10000
years Return Periods
Key Assumptions in Calculating Probabilistic
Ground Motions
1) Earthquakes occur within the defined seismic source zones or along the defined
active faults.
2) Within each defined sesimic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes occur randomly
at any location with an equal chance (probability)
3) Within each defined seismic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes randomly occur
in time, in which the average rate occurence is defined by it’s magnitude-recurrence
relation. This random occurrence in time is modeled as a Possion process.
4) the occurrence of an earthquake is statistically independent of the occurrence of other

earthquakes.
5) In any earthquake event, the ground motion parameter (e.g. PGA, SA) at the site of
interest can be estimated from the earthquake magnitude, source-so-site distance, and
other earthquake parameters by using the selected attenuation relationship.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
1) To consider all uncertainty factors affecting earthquake , we use Total Probability

Theorem. (we can compute the total probability of a system by summing the individual
probabilities from each contributing part)
2) All the data assumes have Normal Distribution.
3) Earthquake recurrence follow Gutenberg-Richter (1956) AB Parameters.
Total Probability Theorem

R max M max
Pa  A i     PR x PM x Pa
R0 M0
Probability of Magnitude (PM)
Number of Events (frequency)
Normal Distribution
-~ +~

Value
Number of events
Total area = 100% of events

Earthquake Distribution from Mmin to Mmax
Magnitude
Mmin Mmax
PSHA Procedure
 Selection of site(s)
 Identification of all critical tectonic features (e.g. Active faults,
seismic source zones) likely to generate significant
earthquakes-seismic sources
 Defining the seismicity of these seismic sources
 Selection of a suitable attenuation relationship – an
equation that estimates ground-motion parameters from
earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance for
various site conditions
 Computation of the ground motion parameters at the site
PSHA Procedure - Objective
Source B Source C
site
Probability of Exceedance
PGA x%
0,15 g (PE in y years)
Hazard Curve
0 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

PSHA Procedure - Objective
Sumber : Prof. Masyhur Irsyam

Sumber : Prof. Masyhur Irsyam
• Identification of all
potential seismic
sources
• Defining the
seismicity of these
seismic sources
• Selection of
appropriate ground-
motion prediction
equations (GMPEs)
• Determining of
Probabilties of
Exceedance (Hazard
Curve)
SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
Part 3 : Simplified (PSHA) – an Example
Simplified PSHA – an Example
Simplified PSHA – an Example
To demonstrate on how probabilistic ground motion is estimated, a simplified
calculation of probabilistic ground motion is presented as follows :
Let’s consider a simple case where only one seismic source (A) is located near
the site of interest (P) :
RAP
A P
The source-to-site distance = RAP = 30 km

Simplified PSHA RAP
Let’s set the PGA level of

interest at the side to, say,
A P
Site
0,10 g.
Seismic Source
M = 6.6
According to the selected attenuation
relationship, earthquakes with magnitude
greater than 6. will produce PGA at the
site equal to or greater than 0,10 g
30 km
Simplified PSHA
According to the magnitude-
recurrence rate of earthquakes
with M > 6.6 = N(M=6.6) = 0,007
event per year
Hence, the annual occurrence rate

0,007 event/year
of having PGA at the alte
exceeding 0,10 g = 0,007 (event
per year) = annual exceedance rate
In the other words, the return period for PGA > 0,10 M=6.6
G = 1/0,007 = 143 years

Random Occurrence of Earthquakes in Time :
Poisson Process
Annual
Annual exceedance rate = total number of events/time period = 0,007 Frequency of
Exceedance
Time, year
Return Period = time period/total number of events = 143 years
= earthquake event with PGA > 0,10 g at the site
Given a time period of 10 years,

7% PE in 10 years
The chance of having such event in this time period
= 0,007 x 10 = 0,07 = 7%, or
PGA = 0,1 g
= 10/147 = 0,07 = 7%
Simplified PSHA
• Repeat the calculation process for many

other PGA levels (0.01g, 0.05g, 0.02g, etc)
• Draw the relationship between PGA and

the corresponding annual exceedance rate
Simplified PSHA
• Determine the PGA level with annual
exceedance rate of 0.002.
• This PGA level is equal to say, 0.22g.
• The exceedance rate in one year = 0.002.

the exceedance rate in a 50-year period =
0.002 x 50 = 0.10.
• The chance of exceeding PGA of 0.22g in

a 50-year period = 10%.
• Hence, the PGA level with 10% chance of

being exceeded in a 50-year period is
0.22g.
Different Forms of Hazard Curves
Rate of Probability of
Annual Rate of Exceedance in Exceedance in
Exceedance 50 years 50 years
Units : Events per year Units : Events per Units : percentage

50 year
0.002 0.1 10%
0 0 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)
Multiple Sources
RBP = 20 km
RAP = 30 km
A P
Site
Seismic Source
RCP = 28 km
Annual exceedance rate at the site P =
Annual exceedance rate caused by Eqs in source A +
Annual exceedance rate caused by Eqs in source B + C

Annual exceedance rate caused by Eqs in source C
MCE (Maximum Considered Earthquake) Near-Fault Criteria
PSHA + DSHA
PSHA Period 2500 years DSHA MAP
To consider near fault effect, deterministic is selected

MCE (Maximum Considered Earthquake)
Near-Fault Criteria
Combination of:
- Probabilistic 2% in 50 years (period 2500 years), with caping
- Deterministic 84th percentile
SA
Probabilistic 2500 yrs
Deterministic 84th percentile
Plateau 1.5XUBC Design
Jarak
Sesar Semangko
PROBABILISTIC GROUND MOTIONS
IN EARTHQUAKE-RESISTANT
DESIGN OF BUILDINGS
DBE = 10% PE in
Rate of 50 yrs
Probability of
MCE = 2% PE in
50 years 50 yrs
Exceedance 50 years
Max. considered

50 year
0.002 0.1 10%
2%

Use of Probabilistic Ground Motion in Earthquake-
Resistant Design of Buildings
• The expected performance of buildings in modern earthquake-resistant
design codes are :
1. Resist a minor level of earthquake ground shaking (SE) without
damage
(SE = Serviceabillity Earthquake – 50% probability of exceedance in 30 years (43-year return period)
2. Resist the design level of earthquake ground shaking (DBE) with

damage (which may or may not be economically repaired) but without
causing extensive loss of life
(DBE = Design Basis Earthquake – 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475-year return period)
3. Resist the strongest earthquake shaking excepted at the site (MCE)

without collapse, but potentially with extreme damage
(MCE = Maximum Considered Earthquake – 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (2475-year return
period)
Seismic Design Criteria of Major Dam Projects
• According to ICOLD (International Commission of Large Dams) Bulletin 72
(1989), large dams have to be able to withstand the effects of the
Maximum Credible Earthquake Shaking Level (MCE)
• This MCE is the strongest earthquake shaking level that could occur in the
region of a dam, and is considered to have a return period of several
thousand years (typically 10.000 years in regions of low to moderate
seismicity)
MCE = Maximum Considered Earthquake – 0,5% probability of exceedance in 50

years (about 10.000-year return period)
Probabilistic Ground Motion Parameters : PGA, PGV, SA
• Tradionally Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) has been used to quantify ground
motion in PSHA, PGA is a good index to hazard for low-rise buildings, up to about 7
stories.
• PGV, Peak Ground Velocity, is a good index to hazard to taller buildings. However,
it’s not clear how to relate velocity to force in order to design a taller building.
• Today the preferred parameter is Response Spectra Acceleration (SA)
• while PGA (Peak Acceleration) is what is experienced by a particle on the ground,

SA is approximately what is experienced by a building, as modeled by a particle
mass on a massless vertical rod having the same natural period of vibration as the
building.
SA = the maximum acceleration experienced by a damped, single-degree-of-freedom oscillator

(a crude representation of building response).
Max. Earthquake Force in the Building = Building Mass x SA
Response Spectrume Parameters : SA, SD, SV
Figure 1. the response-spectrum value is the peak motion (displacement,

velocity, or accelleration) of a damped single-degree of freedom harmonic
oscillator (with a particular damping and resonant period) subjected to a
prescribed ground motion.
If we look at the displacement response, we can
identify the maximum displacement. If we take the
derivative (rate of chance) of the displacement
reponse with respect to time, we can get the
velocity response. The maximum velocity can
likewise be determined. Similarly for response
acceleration (rate of change of velocity) also called
response spectral acceleration (SA).
Construction
of Response
Spectra
(for Past
Earthquakes)
Figure 6.3. Construction of a response spectrum. (a) earthquake

accelereation time history (El Centro, California 1940) used as input. (b)
rellative displacement response of a 2% damped oscillator with a natural
period of 0,5 second. (c) relative displacement response of a 2% damped
oscillator with a natural period of 1,0 seconds. (d) relative displacement
response of a 2% damped oscillator with natural period of 2,0 seconds and
(e) maximum of b,c, dan d become points on the 2% damped relative
displacement response spectrum (after Chopra 1981).
Hazard Cuves for Spectral Acceleration
Rate of Probability of
Exceedance 50 years 50 years

50 year
0.002 0.1 10%
0.0004 0.02 2%

Attenuation Model for SA
Coefficients of an Attenuation Relationship
Construction of Uniform Hazard Spectra
Construction of Uniform
Hazard Spectra (UHS)
(for Design against
Future Earthquakes)
SS and S1 in Building Codes
Uniform Hazard Spectrum (DBE or MCE level)
SS
Spectral Acceleration (g)

SS = Short-period Spectral Acceleration
S1
= SA (0.2 sec Time Period)
S1 = Short-period Spectral Acceleration

= SA (1.0 sec Time Period)
0.01 0.2 0.5 1 2 3
Time Period (sec)

Maximum Considered Earthquake Geometric mean (MCEG) PGA
Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)
for 0.2 sec Spectral Response Acceleration
Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)
for 1.0 sec Spectral Response Acceleration
SMS = Fa SS
Spectral Acceleration
SDS = (2/3) SMS Spectra at Ground Surface
SM1 = Fv S1
SD1 = (2/3) SM1

0.4 SDS SMS = Fa SS SM1 = Fv S1
Ground Surface
T
0.2 1.0
T0= 0.2 Ts
Fa Fv
SS
Spectral Acceleration
Spectra at Bedrock SB
Soil Type
S1
SS S1
T
0.2 1.0 Bedrock SB
Amplification Factor Fa & Fv
Faktor amplifikasi untuk periode 0,2 detik (Fa) berdasarkan SNI 1726:2012
SS
Klasifikasi Site
Ss ≤ 0,25 Ss = 0,5 Ss= 0,75 Ss = 1,0 Ss ≥ 1,25
Batuan Keras (SA) 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8
Batuan (SB) 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Tanah Sangat Padat dan Batuan
1,2 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,0
Lunak (SC)
Tanah Sedang (SD) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,0
Tanah Lunak (SE) 2,5 1,7 1,2 0,9 0,9
Tanah Khusus (SF) SS SS SS SS SS
Faktor amplifikasi untuk periode 1,0 detik (Fv) berdasarkan SNI 1726:2012
S1
Klasifikasi Site
S1 ≤ 0,1 S1 = 0,2 S1 = 0,3 S1 =0,4 S1 ≥ 0,5
Batuan Keras (SA) 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8
Batuan (SB) 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Tanah Sangat Padat dan Batuan
1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3
Lunak (SC)
Tanah Sedang (SD) 2,4 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,5
Tanah Lunak (SE) 3,5 3,2 2,8 2,4 2,4
Tanah Khusus (SF) SS SS SS SS SS
DEAGGREGATION OF
SEISMIC HAZARD
Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard
• The hazard curve gives the combined effect of all the seismic sources,
magnitudes and distances on the probability of exceeding a given ground
motion level.
• Since all of the sources, magnitudes, and distances are mixed together, it’s
difficult to get an intuitive understanding of what is controlling the hazard from
the hazard curve by itself.
• To provide insight into what events are the most important for the hazard at a
given ground motion level, the hazard curve is broken down into it’s
constributions from different earthquake scenarios.
• This process is called ‘Deaggregation of Hazard’.

Why We Need Deaggregation of Seismic
Hazard?
 To find Magnitude (M) and Distance (R) that most give contribution
 From M & R, we can make synthetic ground motion for time history structural
or geotechnical dynamic analysis
 In assessing liquefaction, we need Magnitude to calibrate prediction empirical
equation.
Dynamic Analysis
1. Response Spectrum
2. Time History
3. Pseudo Static using PGA

Example of
Contributions of Various
Seismic Sources to the
Total Seismic Hazard at
the site
Example of
Contributions of Various
Seismic Sources to the
Total Seismic Hazard at
the Site
0.016
0.014
5.0-5.5
5.5-6.0 0.012
Contribution to Hazard
6.0-6.5
0.010
6.5-7.0
7.0-7.5
0.008
7.5-8.0
8.5-9.0 0.006
0.004
285
0.002
245
205
165
125
Dista 0.000
n ce (k
85
m )
8.5-9.0
45
7.0-7.5
6.0-6.5
5.0-5.5
5
ude
Magnit
U
M3 dan R3 mewakili sumber 3
M
Sumber 2
AL
Sumber 3 M3=7.2 R3=70 km
AY
Medan
De-Agregasi
SI
A
De-Agregasi
Sumber 1

M1=8.2 R1=200 km
De-Agregasi
SAMUDERA
INDONESIA BENGKULU
1914,2000
(I=VIII)
M2=7.5 R2=150 km
Sumber: Puslitbang Geologi
Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard of Indonesia, mean
source (Asrurifak et al, 2012)
For Magnitude
Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard of Indonesia, mean
source (Asrurifak et al, 2012)
For Distance
SYNTHETIC GROUND
MOTION
Scaled Acceleration
Synthetic Ground Motion
• To analysis time history dynamic analysis, we need acceleration data or ground
motion.
• Sometime, we can obtain recorded ground motion that relevant to our cases
(location, seismic activity, attenuation, design criteria)
• Therefore, we can conduct analysis to attain the synthetic ground motion.
• Steps in making synthetic ground motion :

1. Obtain M & R from deaggregation
2. Select, ground motion from database that suitable to site seismic source, magnitude and distance.
And conduct analysis to obtain spectra from that ground motion.
3. Input M & R to relevant attenuation function in order to gain response spectra
4. Do scaling for obtained spectra ground motion to response spectra of attenuation function, the
result is synthetic ground motion that we can use for dynamic analysis
Masyhur Irsyam – Dinamika Tanah & Rekayasa Gempa
De-Agregasi
Mencari record ground motion
yg nilai M dan R nya dekat dng M1 dan R1
M1 dan R1
mewakili sumber 1 Dng M1 dan R1, masuk rumus atenuasi
akan didapat Response Spektra M1-R1

M2 dan R2 yg nilai M dan R nya dekat dng M2 dan R2

M3 dan R3 yg nilai M dan R nya dekat dng M3 dan R3
De-Agregasi
Mencari record ground motion M1 R1
M1 dan R1
mewakili sumber 1
Dng M1 dan R1, masuk rumus atenuasi

M2 dan R2
mewakili sumber 2

M3 dan R3
mewakili sumber 3
Selection of Input Ground Motion
Ground
Surface
Bedrock 0.317
0.15
0.1 Scaled Acceleration
S p e c tra l A c c e le ra tio n (g )
1.000 0.05
0
-0.05
0.800 -0.1
-0.15
-0.2
0.600 Scaled Acceleration
0.400
0.317
0.200
0.15
0.000 0.1
0.05
Scaled Acceleration
0
0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 -0.05
-0.1
-0.15
Period (sec) -0.2
Hasil De-Agregasi
1.200
Spectra Percepatan (g)
1.000
Gabungan seluruh sumber
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
Perioda (Detik)
0.000
0.010 0.100 1.000
Un-Scaled Spectra for RP of 500 years
Spectra Acceleration (g)
Sumber Gabungan
sumber 1
M1=8.2 R1=200 km
sumber 2
M2=8.0 R2=180 km
sumber 3
M3=7.3 R3=65 km
Perioda (sec)
Scaled Spectra at T=0.2 sec for RP of 500
years
1.800
1.600
1.400
1.200
1.000
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
0.000
0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000
Period (Second)
Megathrust Benioff Shallow Crustal All Sources Background

Distance
Seismic Source Event Magnitude
(km) Data Source
Megathrust zone
Kern County 1952 7.4 107
Benioff zone USGS
Background zone Lytle Creek 1970 5.4 13 USGS
Shallow crustal Landers 1992 7.3 117 CDMG
S p e c tra l A c c e le ra tio n (g )
1.000
Data asli Kern County
0.3 0.800
0.2
Acceleration (g)
0.1 0.600
0
-0.1
0.400
-0.2 0.317
-0.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0.200
Time (sec)
0.000
0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000
Period (sec)
Spectral Matching
Scaled Acceleration
Ground Motion untuk Subduksi (Megathrust)

Pertemuan 10

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Pertemuan 10

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

SI 4222

TOPIK KHUSUS GEOTEKNIK

PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK SIPIL

 60% of all deaths by

 In 20th century, 17000

 Major Fatalities due to

• Ground displacement along faults : surface rupture

• Ground failure : soil liquefaction, landslide, mud slide, differential soil

• Floods from dam and level failures

• Fires resulting from earthquakes

Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

A building in Dagupan, Philippines

Perfomance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester : Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam)

• What will be their size?

• What will be their frequency of occurrence?

Disaster = Hazard . Vulnerability . Exposure

To reduce risk of disaster and increase safety, we

• In principle, Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) can adress any natural

• However, most interest is in the estimation of ground-shaking hazard, since it

• The chapter, therefore, is restricted to the estimation of the earthquake ground

• Usually Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is considered to be the

• Seismic hazard = ground-shaking hazard = probabilitas

0,1 g = 10% prob of exceedance in 50 years

Peak Ground Acceleration :

Wave Propagation to Site

Attenuation Function is a formulation to predict ground acceleration at

• PSHA quantifies the hazard at a site from all earthquakes of all

• Deterministic earthquake scenarios, therefore, are a subset of the

20% Immediate Occupancy 225 years SNI 1983

2% Near Collapse/ MCE

MCER SNI 2011 MCE +Deterministic

For Buidings ASCE 2010

• Analisis Bahaya Seismik Probabilistik (PSHA) memperhitungkan potensi

• Sebelum meluasnya penggunaan PSHA untuk menilai bahaya gempa,

• It was used by S.T.Algermissen et al. (USGS) for developing a

probabilistic seismic hazard map of US in 1976.

zone map in the Uniform Building Code (US) in 1988.

4) the occurrence of an earthquake is statistically independent of the occurrence of other

1) To consider all uncertainty factors affecting earthquake , we use Total Probability

2) All the data assumes have Normal Distribution.

3) Earthquake recurrence follow Gutenberg-Richter (1956) AB Parameters.

Total Probability Theorem

Total area = 100% of events

0 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Sumber : Prof. Masyhur Irsyam

The source-to-site distance = RAP = 30 km

Let’s set the PGA level of

Hence, the annual occurrence rate

G = 1/0,007 = 143 years

Return Period = time period/total number of events = 143 years

= earthquake event with PGA > 0,10 g at the site

Given a time period of 10 years,

• Repeat the calculation process for many

• Draw the relationship between PGA and

• This PGA level is equal to say, 0.22g.

• The exceedance rate in one year = 0.002.

• The chance of exceeding PGA of 0.22g in

• Hence, the PGA level with 10% chance of

Units : Events per year Units : Events per Units : percentage