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  • Nedspice Market Update Sep 2023 PEPPER 1695344093

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    The pepper harvest in Indonesia is over and overall volumes continue to decline. In Brazil, the divide between sun-dried and machine-dried pepper is increasing, with volumes from northern Para decreasing. Initial reports suggest Vietnam will have a smaller pepper crop next year due to reduced acreage. Prices have been fluctuating in recent weeks with low market liquidity in Vietnam and Brazil following price trends there. Long-term supply dynamics remain unchanged with decreasing acreage in key origins like Vietnam and Indonesia driving farmers to alternative crops due to sustained low prices in the past.

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    The pepper harvest in Indonesia is over and overall volumes continue to decline. In Brazil, the divide between sun-dried and machine-dried pepper is increasing, with volumes from northern Para decreasing. Initial reports suggest Vietnam will have a smaller pepper crop next year due to reduced acreage. Prices have been fluctuating in recent weeks with low market liquidity in Vietnam and Brazil following price trends there. Long-term supply dynamics remain unchanged with decreasing acreage in key origins like Vietnam and Indonesia driving farmers to alternative crops due to sustained low prices in the past.

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    6 views1 page

    Nedspice Market Update Sep 2023 PEPPER 1695344093

    Uploaded by

    hocpham112255
    The pepper harvest in Indonesia is over and overall volumes continue to decline. In Brazil, the divide between sun-dried and machine-dried pepper is increasing, with volumes from northern Para decreasing. Initial reports suggest Vietnam will have a smaller pepper crop next year due to reduced acreage. Prices have been fluctuating in recent weeks with low market liquidity in Vietnam and Brazil following price trends there. Long-term supply dynamics remain unchanged with decreasing acreage in key origins like Vietnam and Indonesia driving farmers to alternative crops due to sustained low prices in the past.

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    market update

    pepper
    September 2023 | spices@nedspice.com

    Pepper

    KEY TAKEAWAYS PRICE OUTLOOK

    > The harvest in Indonesia is over, the downward trend in overall harvest volumes in
    the country continues.

    ↑
    short term
    > In Brazil, the divide between sun-dried and machine-dried materials is increasing.
    The crop size in Para continues to decrease, while exports from the southern

    → →
    provinces are on an upward trend, especially to Africa and the Middle-East. medium term
    > The first reports from Vietnam suggest a smaller crop next year, mostly driven by
    reduced acreage. Farmers have switched to alternative crops and very little new
    planting has been reported in recent years. long term

    SUPPLY DYNAMICS PRICE TRENDS

    Vietnam & Indonesia yearly exports (KMT) Pepper prices - FOB prices (US$/MT)
    5,000
    4,000
    3,000
    2,000
    Sep-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Sep-23
    Vietnam BLP ASTA Lampung-ASTA
    Brazil-ASTA

    > The harvest in Indonesia is over, the overall crop size in > Prices in Vietnam and Brazil have been fluctuating within a
    this origin continues to decrease. Export volumes YtD-Jul small bandwidth in recent weeks. Market liquidity in
    were 10.1KMT, down 46% YoY. At the current rate, Vietnam has been low, while Brazil has been following
    Indonesia will lose its position as major player in the Vietnams price point closely.
    international pepper trade.
    > Prices in Indonesia have been moving up even through the
    > In Brazil, the divide between sun-dried and machine-dried peak harvest period, due to the limited supply.
    materials is increasing. While machine dried materials from
    > Demand from China has dwindled as consumer spending
    Espírito Santo and Bahia are readily available, the northern
    is down and local prices are still below those in Vietnam.
    province of Para has seen volumes decline for the past
    five years and the availability of sun-dried materials > Long term supply and demand dynamics remain
    produced there is tight. unchanged, with planted acreage decreasing in Vietnam
    and Indonesia in particular. Sustained low prices in recent
    > The first estimates being reported for the ‘23/’24 crop
    years drove farmers to alternative crops.
    season in Vietnam suggest a 15% smaller crop. The
    weather conditions over the coming months will be crucial.

    KEY QUALITY PRICE LEVELS1 PEPPER EXPORTS BRAZIL

    Quality US$/MT Change

    BP Vietnam ASTA 3,500 (2.7%)


    BP Brazil ASTA 3,400 (2.9%)
    BP Lampung ASTA 4,300 3.6%
    BP MG1 9,000 1.1%
    WP Indonesia Muntok FAQ 6,200 1.0%
    WP Vietnam DW 5,100 (3.0%)

    1) FOB prices. Change shown vs last month. Source: Nedspice research, price data as per 12-Sep-23
    Disclaimer: This document is for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice. It is not
    intended to be and should not be construed as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to purchase any product.

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