Vietnam Black Pepper

2022 REVIEW AND CROP OUTLOOK FOR 2023

NAMAGRO Jasvinder@namagro.com
1. Black Pepper Review 2022

Total Exports in MT from Various Origins dropped by 7%.

Amongst the key importing destinations China witnessed a steep decline of closed to 50% due to closed
borders preventing flow of goods.
Country 2021 2022 % Change
Imports were lower in: Middle east owing
Viet Nam 261,944 231,988 -11%
to defaults as prices came down, financial
Brazil 92,066 86,359 -6% turmoil in countries such as Pakistan,
Indonesia 37,734 39,009 3% Bangladesh, Turkey and several other
India 19,980 21,882 10% countries due to depreciating currency
Cambodia 18,000 20,000 11% and depleting forex reserves.
Lack of speculative demand led to lesser
Sri Lanka 17,959 16,000 -11%
imports due to credit crunch combined
Malaysia 7,451 10,000 34% with overall lackluster demand. The
Madagascar 3,710 3,000 -19% Volumes in the Developed world got
Ecuador 3,000 3,000 0% normalized after the spike during the
China 3,328 2,500 -25% Pandemic.
Thailand 922 944 2%
Others 10,960 9,444 -14%
Total 466,094 434,682 -7%

Black Pepper prices fell by close to 25% in 2022. This can be attributed to:

• Lower import demand

• Closure of borders
• Financial turmoil
• Lack of speculative demand
• Robust Supply.

In a nutshell the Trade did not expect the

war in Ukraine, Continuation of Stringent
0 covid policy, drop in demand due to
demand rationalization after the
Pandemic. This has resulted in falling of
prices and accumulation of origin carry
over.

VIETNAM BLACK PEPPER NAMAGRO 2

 2. Crop Outlook for 2023

Vietnam

Good Weather during the Blossom led to good Spiking.

VIETNAM BLACK PEPPER NAMAGRO 3

VIETNAM BLACK PEPPER NAMAGRO 4
VIETNAM BLACK PEPPER NAMAGRO 5
Qty in KMT

Current Situation on arrivals :

Harvest has started in some provinces, and we observe farmers drying the produce.

Summary:

1. 2023 Black Pepper output is expected to be 10% higher in Vietnam.

2. Carry over Inventory at farm gate is higher due to lower offtake by China in 2022.
3. Farmers are convinced prices will rise as China has opened and they want better prices.
4. Awareness on sustainability has been increasing over the past few years.

VIETNAM BLACK PEPPER NAMAGRO 6