Global Aquaculture

Update 1H 2022
Strong Demand Driven by Covid Recovery

RaboResearch
RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness
Food & Agribusiness
Table of Contents
Sections

Summary: Seafood Demand Recovery to Continue 3

1 Salmon: Tight Supply and High Prices Expected 5

2 Shrimp: Supply Will Respond to High Prices 12

3 Fish Meal: Little Supply Upside in 1H 2022, With No El Niño Expected 21

4 Key Takeaways 27

Authors and contacts:

Gorjan Nikolik Chenjun Pan
gorjan.nikolik@rabobank.com chenjun.pan@rabobank.com

Novel Sharma
Gonzalo Salinas
novel.sharma@rabobank.com
gonzalo.salinas@rabobank.com

January 2022 2
 Seafood Demand Recovery to Continue in 1H 2022, Supporting Prices
…provided Omicron does not send the world into prolonged lockdowns

Demand drivers Key dynamics Supply drivers

• Good demand will support high
• Omicron and possible new Covid strains • Costs increased in 2021. Elevated input
seafood prices in 1H 2022.
are the key threat to recovering demand. prices are expected to remain through at
• Salmon supply will be tight, but least 1H 2022.
• We expect a good demand environment
for seafood, if the economic recovery shrimp supply will increase in 1H • Salmon supply will be tight and even
from Covid continues. But new global 2022. negative in 1H 2022 due to low
lockdowns could delay recovery. production in Norway.
• High production costs due to
• The US and EU will continue to freight, feed commodity, labor, and • Shrimp supply is expected to grow in 1H
experience the strong demand growth energy costs will be a key theme of 2022, supported by the good price and
seen in 2021. China is showing signs of 2022. demand environment.
recovery in import demand and should
• We expect a normal half-year in fish meal
return to pre-pandemic import levels
production, with no El Niño.
during 2022.

Looking back
• For most seafood species, including salmon and shrimp, 2021 was a year of demand recovery.
• New growth in at-home seafood consumption was a major feature of demand recovery in 2021, and we expect this
will lead to a long-term increase in demand.
• Costs for all seafood reached new highs as energy, feed commodity, labor, and freight costs increased sharply.

Source: Rabobank 2022 3

Global Aquaculture Market Outlook: Good Demand Growth
Expected in All Key Markets in 1H 2022
North America
• The US is the strongest demand driver for
shrimp and salmon globally.
• As foodservice reopens further in 1H 2022,
demand is returning – provided Covid
outbreaks don’t force new lockdowns. This is on
top of the growth in retail demand for seafood,
which is enjoying a period of expansion.
Source: Rabobank 2022
Europe
• After a strong 2021, there is both optimism
and uncertainty for Europe.
• Provided Covid does not create further
lengthy lockdowns, the demand for salmon
and shrimp will continue to grow in 1H 2022.
• Norway’s salmon industry will record low or
even negative supply growth in 1H 2022.
South America
• After a record 2021, Ecuador is
poised for more growth in 2022, as
shrimp prices remain supported.
• Chilean salmon supply will start to
recover in 1H 2022, but not as much
as previously expected.
• Another good season just ended in
Peru, with high fish meal supply and
good prices. There is virtually no
upside possible for Peru’s fish meal
industry in 1H 2022.
China
• After a contraction in import demand due to zero-
Covid policies, recovery is on the way. This is
expected to support demand for shrimp and
salmon in 1H 2022.
• China is likely to be less pressed to import fish meal
in 1H 2022 due to good stocks and the slowdown in
rebuilding the pig herd.
Southeast Asia
• Despite challenges, the main
shrimp exporters – especially
India – recorded a sharp
recovery in 2021.
• Strong shrimp prices should
support more supply growth in
India, Vietnam, and Indonesia
for at least 1H 2022.
• Black tiger shrimp production
will continue its revival in
Southeast Asia and China due to
high prices and new genetics.
4
1
Salmon: Tight Supply and High
Prices Expected in 1H 2022

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness

 The Salmon Industry Emerges as a Covid Winner
Many new customers developed an appetite for at-home consumption

• We expect tight supply in 1H 2022 Atlantic salmon is a long-term growth sector, but it’s entering
a few years of lower-than-average growth
Salmon

• Low Norwegian supply is the key driver

• Demand will support near-record prices 3,500

Chile to start its recovery in 2022, but with low inventory 3,000
After the contraction in 2021, Chilean suppliers are on the road to increasing supply, but
it will take a few years. During 2021, Chile sold nearly all the inventory amassed in 2020,
due to good prices. Considering the inventory release, Chilean supply growth in 2022 is 2,500
likely to be negative despite the 3% to 4% harvest growth expected. Lastly, growth in the
region is influenced by algae blooms. If these worsen, Chilean supply growth in 1H 2022

thousand metric tons

could be minimal.
2,000

Low supply from Norway in 2022

Norway had a surprisingly strong 2021, with unexpected 10.9% growth due to good 1,500
biology. In 2022, there is little upside in terms of biology. Due to high harvesting,
biomass is low, suggesting only 1% to 2% growth for the full year 2022. However, 1H
2022 will have especially tight supply with mostly negative supply growth from the 1,000
Norwegian industry.

Demand growth to continue supporting high prices 500

Salmon was one of the winning proteins in retail in 2021. Demand is not expected to
decline much in 2022, although Omicron brings considerable uncertainties. If there are
no new major lockdowns, the expected low global supply growth for 2022 should 0
support high prices, possibly the highest prices we have seen since 2016, when the
industry had a supply contraction.

Norway Chile UK Canada Others

Source: Fish Pool, Kepler Cheuvreux, Rabobank 2022 6

 European Salmon Prices Ended 2021 on a High, Despite Strong
Supply
The price outlook for 1H 2022 is bullish

Expectations are for strong fresh salmon prices in Oslo, at Norwegian salmon exports were strong until the end of 2021,
least until the typical summer dip but will be negative for most of 1H 2022
Salmon

Delta 20/21
90 200
10.3% 26.1% -1.2% 8.6% 20.5% 17.8%

17.6% 3.4% 18.1% 19.5% 7.0%

80
160

70

thousand metric tons

Fish Pool Index (NOK)

120

60

80

50

40
40

Expected price range 1H 2022

30 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 FPI 2020 FPI 2021 FPI 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Fish Pool, Kontali, Rabobank 2022 7

 Norway: Low Supply Upside for at Least 1H 2022
This follows strong harvesting at the end of 2021

After strong harvesting in Q4 2021, biomass is only 1% above A key feature of the current biomass is the high average
last year, suggesting growth for 2022 weight of individuals and the low number of fish
Salmon

950 10.0%
8.3%

900 8.0%

6.0% 5.3%
850
4.5%
4.0%
thousand metric tons

800 2.6%

2.0%

delta YOY
1.0%
750
0.0%

700
-2.0%

650 -3.1%
-4.0%

600 -6.0%

-6.6%
550 -8.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20G vs. 19G 21G vs. 20G Total biomass

2018 2019 2020 2021 No. of fish Avg. kg Volume (whole fish equivalent)

Note: G denotes generation (i.e. the fish placed in sea cages that year)
Source: Kontali, Rabobank 2022 8
 US Market: Strong Demand Supported 2021 Prices, Despite Good
Supply Volumes
We expect more of this dynamic in 1H 2022

Chilean fresh fillets in the US*, 2lb to 3lb, 2017-2021 The US market increased by 15.6% YTD October 2021, with
frozen fillets as the best performing category
Salmon

7.0 400
15.4% 12.4% 21.8%

6.0
300

5.0

million metric tons

USD/lb (FOB Miami)

200

4.0

100
3.0

2.0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Fresh Atlantic whole Fresh Atlantic fillets Frozen Atlantic fillets

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021

* Fillet prices to the US are: UB salmon, farmed, fillet, and fresh salmon, Chilean Atlantic salmon, and D-Trim salmon.
Source: Urner Barry’s Foreign Trade Data, USDOC, Rabobank 2022 9
 Chilean Salmon Production: Supply Inflection Point Expected in
1H 2022
Following declining harvests since May 2021

Chilean exports were down by 5.3% YTD October 2021, but Chilean Atlantic salmon harvest quantity contracted during
US and Latin America remained well supplied 2H 2021; this will change in 1H 2022
Salmon

Delta 20/21
240 90,000
-5.3% 8.7% 15.0% -40.4% -21.0% -34.9% -8% 4% 35% 13% -22% -29% -24% -14% -10% -15%

200 75,000

whole fish equivalent (metric tons)

160 60,000
million metric tons

120 45,000

80 30,000

40 15,000

0 -
Japan US Latin Asia w/o Others EU Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
America Japan
YTD 2020 YTD 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Urner Barry’s Foreign Trade Data, USDOC, Kontali, Rabobank 2022 10
 Chile to Begin Salmon Supply Recovery in 1H 2022
Still, global supply growth will be low due to low volumes from Norway

Global supply per producer and expected percentage change, 2019-2024f

Salmon

2,000

1.4% 2.4% 2.8%

thousand metric tons

10.9%
1,500 2.6%

1,000 13.8% 3.5% 2.7% 3.4%

-9.2%
10.2%
500 -2.0% -3.0%
15.6% 1.5% 18.2%7.9% 12.3%
-1.8% 1.5% -1.6%-1.4% 2.0% 2.0% -0.5%

0
Norway Chile UK Canada Others
2019 2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f

Global supply growth of Atlantic salmon, 2013-2024f

12.0
8.8
8.0 6.5 7.1
percentage change

4.7 5.4
3.6 4.3 3.7
3.4 3.4
4.0 2.1

0.0
Relatively low supply period
-4.0 combined with strong demand

5.7
-8.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux, Rabobank 2022 11

2
Shrimp: Supply Will Respond to
High Prices in 1H 2022

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness

 Shrimp: Get Ready for a Strong 1H 2022
The sector is poised to grow after an encouraging 2021

• The US, EU, and Chinese markets to drive demand in 1H 2022 Urner Barry White Shrimp Index: Prices well above pre-
• All key exporters are expected to increase supply pandemic levels and likely supported in 1H 2022
• Currently, there is no new disease that could change expectations 4.7

Booming demand for shrimp

Driven by the US, but also by Europe and the gradual recovery in China, shrimp 4.5
demand rebounded strongly in 2021. Provided the global economy continues
along the path of recovery from Covid, demand growth will persist in 2022,
driving the shrimp industry. 4.3
Shrimp

Ecuador leads as all key exporters increase supply

USD/lb
All key exporters performed strongly in 2021, but Ecuador was the most 4.1
notable, surpassing 1m metric tons of annual production in December 2021.
India and Vietnam also recorded very strong export growth figures despite
supply-side challenges throughout the year.
3.9

1H 2022 expected to be another strong shrimp supply period

Currently, there are no new diseases that could change the sector’s
3.7
momentum. Despite higher costs, the high prices make shrimp farming highly
profitable, which is conducive to supply growth. Even if there is a slight cooling
of prices during early 2022, we expect strong supply growth to persist.
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

UB White Shrimp Index 2018 UB White Shrimp Index 2019

UB White Shrimp Index 2020 UB White Shrimp Index 2021

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Aquaculture Alliance, Urner Barry, Rabobank 2022 13
 US Shrimp Market: Shrimp Popularity Still Firm Despite Higher
Prices
As foodservice reopens, shrimp demand reaches new records

US shrimp imports jumped 17% in value and 9% in volume, YTD October 2021, supporting prices; this will drive supply in 2022
90 900

80 800

70 700

60 600
thousand metric tons
Shrimp

USD million
50 500

40 400

30 300

20 200

10 100

- -
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Volume 2019 Volume 2020 Volume 2021 Value 2019 Value 2020 Value 2021

Source: Trade Monitor, Rabobank 2022 14

 EU Shrimp Market: Strong Consumption Recovery in 2021
The EU emerges as a booming shrimp market and is set for a great 2022 if foodservice returns

EU frozen tropical shrimp imports are up 8.5% in value and 13.9% in volume, YTD October 2021
75 600

60 480
thousand metric tons

45 360
Shrimp

USD million
30 240

15 120

- -
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Volume 2019 Volume 2020 Volume 2021 Value 2019 Value 2020 Value 2021

Source: Trade Monitor, Rabobank 2022 15

 Chinese Shrimp Market: Imports Remain Below Pre-pandemic
Levels but Are Recovering, Despite Zero-Covid Policies
We expect the strong recovery in shrimp imports to continue in 1H 2022

China’s shrimp imports are up 0.7% in value and down 5.2% in volume, YTD October 2021
120 720

100 600

80 480
thousand metric tons
Shrimp

USD million
60 360

40 240

20 120

- -
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Volume 2019 Volume 2020 Volume 2021 Value 2019 Value 2020 Value 2021

Source: Trade Monitor, Rabobank 2022 16

 Ecuador: A Key Winner in the Pandemic, Surpassing 1 Million Metric
Tons of Production in 2021
Ecuador’s exports are more diversified after a partial pivot to the US and Europe

Ecuador’s exports expanded in 2021 (up 19.7% YTD Ecuador’s exports are partially pivoting to the US and
November 2021), continuing the long-term growth rate Europe, even as Chinese demand is recovering
1,800 5,000 90

1,600 4,500 80

4,000
1,400 70

3,500
1,200 60

thousand metric tons

3,000
Shrimp

USD million
million pounds

1,000 50
2,500
800 40
2,000
600 30
1,500

400 20
1,000

200 500 10

0 - 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

Oct
Jun
Jul
Aug

Nov

Jun
Jul
Aug

Nov
Jan

Jan
Feb

Sep

Dec

Feb

Sep
Mar
Apr
May

Mar
Apr
May
Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 2021
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec Total value China US EU-27+UK Rest of world

Source: CAN Ecuador, Rabobank 2022 17

 India: Despite Covid and Challenging Weather, India Rebounded in
2021 with Stellar 29% Growth in Exports
Strong prices at the end of 2021 should promote more supply growth in 1H 2022

Indian shrimp exports have rebounded strongly, growing by India is the leading supplier to the US, which should drive
26% in value and 29% in volume, YTD October 2021 demand for Indian shrimp in 1H 2022
750 6,000 90

75
600 4,800

60

thousand metric tons

thousand metric tons

450 3,600
Shrimp

USD million
45

300 2,400

30

150 1,200
15

- - 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mar 2020

Mar 2021
Nov 2019

Sep 2020

Nov 2020

Sep 2021
Jun 2020

Jun 2021
Oct 2020

Oct 2021
Jan 2020

May 2020

Jul 2020

Jan 2021

May 2021

Jul 2021
Dec 2019

Feb 2020

Apr 2020

Aug 2020

Dec 2020

Feb 2021

Apr 2021

Aug 2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec Total value US China EU-27+UK Rest of world

Source: Trade Data Monitor, Rabobank 2022 18

 Vietnam: Consistent and Steady Growth Expected in 1H 2022
Good market access and high shrimp prices drive growth

Relative to 2020, Vietnam’s exports were up 12% in volume A well-diversified exporter, Vietnam is shifting slightly to the
and 10% in value, YTD October 2021 US market. The EU and US will drive demand in 1H 2022
350 3,500 45 400

40 350
300 3,000

35
300
250 2,500
30
thousand metric tons

thousand metric tons

250

USD million
Shrimp

200 2,000

USD million
25
200
20
150 1,500
150
15
100 1,000
100
10

50 500 50
5

- - 0 0

Jun

Aug

Nov

Jun

Aug
Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct
Jan
Feb

Sep

Dec
Jan
Feb

Sep
Apr

Apr
Mar

May

Mar

May
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 2021
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct EU US Japan South Korea
Nov Dec Total value China Canada Australia Total value

Source: Trade Data Monitor, Rabobank 2022 19

 Indonesia: Following Gradual Expansion in 2021, More Growth Is
Expected for 2022
Indonesia is highly focused on the strong US shrimp market

Indonesia’s exports increased 5.2% in value and 3.2% in Indonesia is more focused on the US (78% of exported
volume, YTD October 2021 volumes) than other exporters – with positive results thus far
250 2,400 25 250

2,000
200 20 200

1,600

thousand metric tons

thousand metric tons

150 15 150
Shrimp

USD million

USD million
1,200

100 10 100
800

50 5 50
400

0 0 0 0

Jun
Jun

Aug
Jul

Nov

Aug
Oct

Jul

Oct
Jan
Feb

Sep

Dec

Feb
Jan

Sep
Apr

Apr
Mar

May

Mar

May
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr 2020 2021
May Jun Jul Aug USA Japan China EU
Sep Oct Nov Total value Canada S. Korea Australia Total value

Source: Trade Data Monitor, Rabobank 2022 20

3
Fish Meal: Little Supply Upside
in 1H 2022, With No El Niño
Expected

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness

 Fish Meal: Little Supply Upside in Peru, but Less Price Support in
1H 2022 Expected

• Despite good supply, prices were supported in 2021 Fish meal supply was driven by Peru in 2021 (YTD October)
• We do not expect a material supply increase in 1H 2022; there is only minor
upside in production in Europe
• Prices of competing commodities remain supportive of fish meal prices; Peru 37%
however, cooling Chinese demand will mean less overall price support

Near-perfect season in Peru in 2021 Denmark/Norway

-30%
Peru was the key driver in 2021, with strong supply growth (a recovery from a weak
2020). Europe, the US, and South Africa had lower pelagic quotas and fish meal
production. Overall supply was flat in 2021 versus 2020. There is limited upside in Peru
Chile
for 2022, but, as La Niña or neutral climate conditions are expected for at least 1H 2022, 12%
similar production levels could be achieved. We expect a recovery in the European and
US supply, as the respective quotas for capelin and menhaden have been increased.
This recovery should create a small increase in global supply, but only if Peru maintains US
its high production levels. -9%

Chinese fish meal demand to weaken in 1H 2022

Iceland/North
In 2021 (YTD October), 83% of fish meal from Peru was sold to China, up from 77% in Atlantic
2020. China used the strong Peruvian supply to rebuild its depleted stock levels. This, -18%
combined with a slowdown of the rebuilding of the pig herd in 1H 2022, will dampen
Chinese demand for fish meal for the first half of the year.
Fish Meal

South Africa
Neutral view on fish meal prices in 1H 2022 -33%
With limited upside in production and relatively high commodity prices, there is still 0 300 600 900
support for fish meal prices in 2022. However, the fish meal/soymeal price ratio has
increased from a record low in early 2021, suggesting somewhat less competitive fish thousand metric tons
meal, albeit still cheap relative to pre-pandemic levels. Also, with Chinese demand
expected to cool somewhat, we expect a more balanced market in 1H 2022. 2021 2020

Source: Urner Barry, Kontali, Rabobank 2022 22

 The Leading Producers (IFF0-8) Had a 5% Increase in Fish Meal
Supply in 2021
The fish oil supply increased 9% in the same period

Fish meal production by the IFFO-8, the leading regions producing fish meal from wild catch, increased in 2021
Fish meal production by country (thousand metric tons)
January-October October
2020 2021 21/20 2020 2021 21/20
Peru 557 764 37% 0 0
Denmark/Norway 319 223 -30% 26 16 -38%
Chile 276 308 12% 14 18 27%
US 211 191 -10% 18 21 19%
Iceland/North Atlantic 153 125 -18% 12 14 18%
South Africa 95 64 -32% 4 2 -53%
Total 1,692 1,777 5% 98 97 -1%

Fish oil production by country (thousand metric tons)

January-October October
2020 2021 21/20 2020 2021 21/20
Peru 80 133 66% 0 0 0%
Fish Meal

Denmark/Norway 91 59 -35% 11 8 -30%

Chile 110 131 19% 10 6 -37%
US 73 72 -2% 7 9 21%
Iceland/North Atlantic 41 36 -10% 5 6 15%
South Africa 9 7 -24% 0 0 -31%
Total 414 451 9% 37 33 9%

Source: Kontali, IFFO, Rabobank 2022 23

 Peru Completed the 2021/2022 Winter Season Successfully
There is no El Niño expected in 1H 2022, with La Niña conditions still predominant

Peruvian biannual anchoveta quotas and catch rates are dependent on El Niño events, which occur at regular intervals. Small
events occur every two or three years and large events every eight to ten years.

98% 100% 100% 100%

98%
5,000 100%
92% 95% 94%

85%
4,000 88% 80%
thousand metric tons

3,000 60%

catch rate
50%
2,000 46% 40%

36%

1,000 20%
Fish Meal

Mini Mini
El Niño
bans bans

0 0%
Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter
2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Rabobank 2022 24

 Chinese Fish Meal Stocks Are Replenished
Due to strong Peruvian fish meal purchases, Chinese buyers will not be rushed in 1H 2022

Monthly fish meal stock (end of month), 2019-2021 Monthly fish meal sales in China hit a slightly lower level by
the end of 2021
300 200

240 160

thousand metric tons

thousand metric tons

180 120

120 80

60 40
Fish Meal

0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

Source: Kontali, Rabobank 2022 25

 High Soy Prices Still Support the Fish Meal Price
The fish meal/soymeal ratio has reversed but remains low, supporting fish meal prices in 1H
2022

Fish meal and soymeal prices, 2015-2021 The fish meal/soymeal price ratio is increasing, but still low
relative to pre-pandemic levels
2,300 600 5.5

5.0
2,000 550

4.5
1,700 500
USD/metric ton

EUR/metric ton
4.0
1,400 450
3.5

1,100 400
3.0

800 350
2.5
Fish Meal

500 300 2.0

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
May

Jan

Jan
May

May

May

May

May

May
Sep
Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep
Jan

Jan
Nov

Nov
May

Mar
Feb
Jun

Apr

Jul

Oct

Aug

Jun

Apr
Sep

Sep
Dec

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Fish meal price, FOB Peru, Urner Barry export price (LHS) Fish meal/soymeal ratio
Soymeal price, IndexMundi (RHS)

Source: Urner Barry, IndexMundi, Rabobank 2022 26

4
Aquaculture Outlook for 1H
2022: Key Takeaways

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness

Aquaculture Outlook for 1H 2022: Our Key Takeaways
Salmon
Despite Chile’s return to growth in
1H 2022, low supply from Norway
will keep the global supply low and
even negative for the first six
months of 2022. A further
worsening of the algae bloom in
Chile could make the supply even
tighter. These circumstances
support multi-year high prices,
given the expected good demand.
Source: Rabobank 2022
Shrimp
Assuming no further cost increases,
the shrimp sector is likely to
continue expanding supply in 1H
2022, inspired by good demand
and market prices. We expect
Ecuador and India, the two leading
shrimp producers, to continue the
expansion seen in 2021. Another
half year of record-breaking supply
growth could be achieved.
Fish meal
Production in Peru should continue
at 2021’s high levels, at least in 1H
2022, while La Niña conditions
persist. Supply from Europe and the
US will increase, but this only has a
minor impact on the overall supply.
The demand environment may cool
slightly in 1H 2022 due to
decreased demand from China and
somewhat more competitive
soymeal prices.
28
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