IIIc Greenhouse Warming and El Nino

The great flood:
A consequence of global climate change?
Ancient
A i t sea level
l l changes
h
Milankovitch cycles and the ice ages
Global climate change

g through
g time
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2e/Martin%2C_John_-_The_Deluge_-_1834.jpg
CLIMATE AND WEATHER
Weather and Climate

Weather
The state of the atmosphere at a given time and
place. Characterizing weather requires that we measure
conditions
diti suchh as temperature,
t t precipitation,
i it ti air
i pressure,
wind speed and direction and humidity.
Climate
Average weather conditions for a site measured over a
long time period (years). Characterizing the region’s climate
requires thorough review of weather data for several decades.
Both weather and climate are the result of a complex series of

interactions between all elements of the earth system.
N. Ramos | Geology 1 Our Dynamic Earth The great flood: A consequence of global climate change?
CLIMATE
Components of the Earth’s Climate System
GLOBAL WARMING
What are the trends?

Mean global surface temperature has increased. Recent
years have been among the warmest since the 1860s.
64.19.142.12/upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/95/Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2010_%28Fig.A%29.gif
GLOBAL WARMING

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing
GLOBAL WARMING

sea level has risen by about 10~25 cm over the last 100 years
GLOBAL WARMING

climate variability or extremes in the recent decade increased
GLOBAL WARMING
Why the trends?

increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, resulting from human activities such as
deforestation and burning of fossil fuels
Greenhouse gas (GHG)

- a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within
the thermal infrared range; the fundamental cause of the
greenhouse effect.
-pprimary
yggreenhouse ggases in the Earth's atmosphere:
p
water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone.
- greatly affect the temperature of the Earth; without them, Earth's

surface would be on average about 33°C (59 °F) colder than at
present
GREENHOUSE GASES
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
64.19.142.12/upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/The_green_house_effect.svg/800px-
The_green_house_effect.svg.png
GREENHOUSE GASES
Greenhouse effect
increase in CO2 concentration
Atmospheric CO2 has increased from pre-industrial concentration of

about 220 ppmv to about 367 ppmv at present; its rapid increase
occurring since the onset of industrialization. The increase has slowly
followed the increase in CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Causes of increase in global CO2 concentrations:
Burning of fossil fuels to run CO2 emissions as a result

our industries of land use change
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse effect
increase in N2O and CH4 concentration
GLOBAL WARMING
If there is warming, so what?
GLOBAL WARMING PREDICTIONS
Climate models calculate that the global mean surface
temperature could rise by about 1 to 4.5 centigrade by 2100
Increase in climate
variability
Change in vegetation/
Biodiversity
Impact on water
resources
Increase in tropical
vector borne diseases
GLOBAL WARMING
Climate models calculate that melting of small glaciers and
polar ice caps may lead to sea level rise of 0.5 m
However,
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet

= 7.2 m of sea-level rise
Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet

= 61.1 m of sea level rise
GLOBAL WARMING
Ice melting and sea level
www.sciencepoles.org/uploads/articles_images/glacier_greenlan
www.layoutsparks.com/1/41037/ice-berg-water-ocean.html d_or.jpg
DISAGREEMENTS ON GLOBAL WARMING
Is the Earth really warming?

Ground-based and ocean-surface sensors show consistent
warming over the last 20 years or so.
BUT, satellites that monitor temperature in the lower air, as

well as data from balloons, indicate a very slight cooling
trend.
BUT, satellites that monitor temperature in the lower air, as

well as data from balloons, indicate a very slight cooling
trend.

sea ice formation is predicted to be decreasing, BUT...
Northwestern Atlantic ‘98 Northwestern Atlantic ‘99
Sea of Okhotsk ‘98 Sea of Okhotsk ‘99
EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING
Temperature record
11 of last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among 12 warmest since 1850
(beginning of instrumental record) for global surface T
Increase in surface T for 1850-2005: 0.76°C(0.57-0.95°C)
Temperature record
increasing trend measured from balloon and satellite for
lower and mid-troposphere
Temperature record
increased water vapor in atmosphere as predicted by
increased capacity for warm air
Temperature record
warmer oceans to depth of 3km
Melting snow and ice

decline in mountain glaciers and snow cover for both hemispheres
ice losses from Greenland and Antartica likely to have contributed

to sea level rise during 1993
1993-2003
2003
Sea level rise

global average sea level rise for 1961-2003 = 1.8 mm/year
19th – 20th century sea level rise = 0.17 m (0.12-0.22m)
Arctic temperature and sea ice

average Arctic T increased at almost 2x global average in past 100
years; T on top of Arctic permafrost increased since 1980’s by up
to 3°C
average Arctic sea ice extent shrunk at 2.7%/decade
Extreme weather conditions

typhoons, hurricanes, heat waves
PHILIPPINES
Extreme weather?
Comparison of 30‐year mean number of Tropical

Cyclone in the Philippines
20.5
20.0
Number of Tropical Cyclones

19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
30 years Mean 1951‐1980 1961‐1990 1971‐2000 2081‐2010
No. of T.C.
19.8 20.2 19.5 18.8
Figures from Yumul, 2011

PHILIPPINES
Extreme weather?
Figures from Yumul, 2011

GLOBAL WARMING
2.bp.blogspot.com/_tafXqu5xBBE/TSydZ2IEtYI/AAAAAAAAAc0/KvQ3VXeZ-z8/s1600/brown.jpg
The great flood:

A consequence of global climate change?
A i t sea level
Ancient l l changes
h
Milankovitch cycles and the ice ages
Greenhouse warming and
Global climate change

g through
g time
tx.english-ch.com/teacher/jasper/El%20Ni%C3%B1o.jpg
EARTH’S HEAT DISTRIBUTION
Differential heating
of the Earth results
to a po
pole
e - equato
equator
temperature
gradient.
Atmospheric circulation
Heat is redistributed by atmospheric convection. Hot air
rises, cold air descends.
For a non-rotating Earth, a simple equator to pole convection is

produced.
Atmospheric circulation
BUT because the Earth is rotating, objects in motion are
subject to the Coriolis Force.
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
Coriolis effect
causes meridional flow to be disrupted as winds are deflected to
the right of their course in the northern hemisphere and to the left
of their course in the southern hemisphere
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
Coriolis force
Ferrel Cells
Midlatitude cells in both hemispheres.
Circulation in these cells results from the air
flowingg toward the ppoles from the
subtropical highs which collides with cold air
flowing from the poles.
Hadley Cell
Warm air converges on the equator and
rises forming a belt of low pressure. The
humidity of the air increases as it cools
down during ascent causing condensation
and cloud formation.
Polar Cells
Cold, dense air descends in polar high
pressure system and moves toward
the equator
OCEAN CIRCULATION
Ocean circulation
primarily driven by winds, roughly follows global wind pattern but
is modified by the Coriolis force and geostrophic movement.
www.newmediastudio.org/DataDiscovery/Hurr_E
D_Center/Easterly_Waves/Geostrophic_Wind/G
eostrophic_Wind_fig06.jpg
www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg
EL NIÑO
Deep water circulation

thermohaline or density driven deep water currents; function of
temperature and salinity
density difference causes water to sink or rise to their appropriate density

levels
EL NIÑO
El Niño Southern Oscillation
a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical

Pacific Ocean roughly every five years
characterized by variations in the

(1) temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific
Ocean -- warming or cooling known as
El Niño (accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific) and
La Niña (accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific)
(2) air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific -- the

Southern Oscillation
EL NIÑO
a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical

Pacific Ocean roughly every five years
Hadley Cell Walker Cell

meridional; from one latitude to same latitude
another
EL NIÑO
low pressure zone in the Indo Pacific (centered at Darwin) and a

high pressure zone west of S. America (Tahiti)
OCEAN – ATMOSPHERE COUPLING
Normal condition (non-El Niño)

Upwelling of cold nutrient rich deep water in the eastern Pacific
Figure from Kessler and the TAO Group (NOAA)

OCEAN – ATMOSPHERE COUPLING
El Niño condition
Presence of unusually warm waters at the E. Pacific prevents upwelling
Figure from Kessler and the TAO Group (NOAA)

EL NIÑO
Southern Oscillation Index

barometric pressure difference between Darwin and Easter Island
EL NIÑO
Possible causes of the ENSO

Global Warming?
Natural perturbations in the climate system?
Volcanic Eruptions?
EL NIÑO
EFFECTS OF THE EL NIÑO
Global weather patterns
EL NIÑO MONITORING
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project
a series of buoys deployed in the

equatorial Pacific continuously
monitors ocean and atmosphere
conditions

IIIc Greenhouse Warming and El Nino

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IIIc Greenhouse Warming and El Nino

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The great flood:

A consequence of global climate change?

Milankovitch cycles and the ice ages

Global climate change

CLIMATE AND WEATHER

Weather and Climate

Both weather and climate are the result of a complex series of

Components of the Earth’s Climate System

What are the trends?

What are the trends?

What are the trends?

What are the trends?

Why the trends?

Greenhouse gas (GHG)

- greatly affect the temperature of the Earth; without them, Earth's

Atmospheric CO2 has increased from pre-industrial concentration of

Causes of increase in global CO2 concentrations:

Burning of fossil fuels to run CO2 emissions as a result

If there is warming, so what?

GLOBAL WARMING PREDICTIONS

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet

Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet

DISAGREEMENTS ON GLOBAL WARMING

Is the Earth really warming?

BUT, satellites that monitor temperature in the lower air, as

Is the Earth really warming?

BUT, satellites that monitor temperature in the lower air, as

DISAGREEMENTS ON GLOBAL WARMING

Is the Earth really warming?

Northwestern Atlantic ‘98 Northwestern Atlantic ‘99

Sea of Okhotsk ‘98 Sea of Okhotsk ‘99

Increase in surface T for 1850-2005: 0.76°C(0.57-0.95°C)

EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

Melting snow and ice

ice losses from Greenland and Antartica likely to have contributed

EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

Sea level rise

19th – 20th century sea level rise = 0.17 m (0.12-0.22m)

Arctic temperature and sea ice

average Arctic sea ice extent shrunk at 2.7%/decade

EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

Extreme weather conditions

Comparison of 30‐year mean number of Tropical

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Figures from Yumul, 2011

Figures from Yumul, 2011

The great flood:

Milankovitch cycles and the ice ages

Greenhouse warming and

Global climate change

EARTH’S HEAT DISTRIBUTION

For a non-rotating Earth, a simple equator to pole convection is

Deep water circulation

density difference causes water to sink or rise to their appropriate density

El Niño Southern Oscillation

a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical

characterized by variations in the

(2) air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific -- the

El Niño Southern Oscillation

a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical

Hadley Cell Walker Cell

El Niño Southern Oscillation