Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12
Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 28 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today

“PAENG” CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ALBAY-SORSOGON AREA

Location of Center (7:00 PM)

The center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated
based on all available data including those from Guiuan
Doppler Weather Radar at 100 km East Northeast of
Catarman, Northern Samar or 165 km East of Juban,
Sorsogon (12.8°N, 125.5°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of
990 hPa
Present Movement

West northwestward at 25 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to
480 km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
dir. and
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW
Location Cat. speed
(°N) (°E) (km/h) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 13.5 123.4 In the vicinity of Baao, Camarines Sur 100 STS WNW 25
29 October 2022
24-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 14.4 121.4 In the vicinity of Mabitac, Laguna 100 STS WNW 20
29 October 2022
36-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 15.2 119.4 Over the coastal waters of Iba, Zambales 100 STS WNW 20
30 October 2022
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 15.7 118.4 175 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales 110 STS WNW 10
30 October 2022
60-Hour Forecast
NNW
5:00 AM 16.3 118.1 240 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan 110 STS
Slowly
31 October 2022
72-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 17.5 117.9 275 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur 110 STS N 10
31 October 2022
96-Hour Forecast
325 km West of Calayan, Cagayan
5:00 PM 19.6 118.4 100 STS NNE 10
(Outside the PAR)
01 November 2022
120-Hour Forecast
265 km West of Itbayat, Batanes
5:00 PM 21.1 119.3 95 STS NNE 10
(Outside the PAR)
02 November 2022

Page 1 of 4

Prepared by: SMRR Checked by: SFD

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 805 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12
Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 28 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including

Ticao and Burias Islands, Camarines Sur,
Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Quezon including
Pollilo Islands, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro
Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, the southern portion of
Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), the Northern Samar,
central and southern portions of Nueva Ecija (City Eastern Samar, Samar,
of Gapan, San Leonardo, Santo Domingo, Rizal, San Biliran, and the
Isidro, Laur, Zaragoza, Llanera, Aliaga, Palayan City, northern portion of
Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan Leyte (San Isidro,
City, Quezon, San Antonio, General Tinio, Santa Calubian, Tabango,
Rosa, Pe, Jaen, Licab, Bongabon, Cabiao, Talavera), Leyte, Capoocan,
the central and southern portions of Tarlac (La Carigara, Barugo, San
2 Paz, City of Tarlac, San Jose, Gerona, Mayantoc,
Pura, Bamban, Capas, Santa Ignacia, Victoria,
Miguel, Babatngon,
Tacloban City,
-
Wind threat: Concepcion), Pampanga, Bataan, the central and Alangalang, Santa Fe,
Gale-force southern portions of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Palo, Tanauan, Dagami,
winds Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, Subic, Pastrana, Jaro,
Olongapo City, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, Kananga, Villaba, Tunga,
San Felipe), the northern and central portions of Tabontabon, Tolosa)
Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco,
City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro,
Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas),
the northern and central portions of Occidental
Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de
Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands, and
Romblon

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Page 2 of 4

Prepared by: SMRR Checked by: SFD

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 805 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12
Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 28 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Dinagat Islands,
Surigao del Norte
including Siargao and
The central and southern portions of Isabela
Bucas Grande Islands,
(San Agustin, Jones, City of Santiago, Cordon,
the northern portion of
Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur
Guillermo, Angadanan, City of Cauayan, Benito Cebu including (Carrascal, Cantilan,
Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Bantayan and Madrid, Carmen,
Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Camotes Islands, Lanuza, Cortes, City of
Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Bohol, Negros Tandag, Bayabas,
Ilagan City, Divilacan, Roxas, Quirino, Mallig), Occidental, Negros Cagwait, San Miguel,
Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao,
1 Mountain Province, the southern portion of
Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo,
Oriental, Guimaras,
Aklan, Antique,
Capiz, Iloilo,
Tago, Marihatag),
Agusan del Norte, the
Wind threat: northeastern portion
Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio Siquijor, and the
Strong winds of Agusan del Sur
del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia), La Union, the rest of Leyte (Sibagat), Camiguin,
rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the
and the eastern
rest of Zambales, Pangasinan, the rest of
portion of Misamis
Tarlac, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest
Oriental (Gingoog City,
of Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands, and
Magsaysay, Medina,
Cuyo Islands
Talisayan, Balingoan,
Kinoguitan)

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Page 3 of 4

Prepared by: SMRR Checked by: SFD

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 805 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12
Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 28 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall
 Tonight through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region and
Eastern Visayas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Quezon, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Zamboanga
Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over
over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, the rest of CALABARZON, and the rest of
Mindanao.
 Tomorrow early morning through Sunday morning: Heavy to torrential rains likely over Aurora, Metro Manila, Bulacan,
Nueva Ecija, CALABARZON, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western
Visayas, and the rest of Central Luzon and Bicol Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over
Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
 Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track
and intensity forecast of PAENG.

Severe Winds
 Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone
Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone
Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG.
 Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3
in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
 The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force
strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan,
and the northern portion of Apayao.

Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying
and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the eastern portion of Aurora,
the northern and eastern portions of Northern Samar, and the eastern portion of Eastern Samar. For more information
refer to Storm Surge Watch #3 issued at 8:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and PAENG, a marine gale warning is in effect over the
seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of
Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #11 issued at 5:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track
the center of PAENG may make its initial landfall in the vicinity of Albay or Sorsgon this late evening or tomorrow
early morning and traverse the Bicol Peninsula before emerging over the coastal waters of Quezon. Between
tomorrow afternoon and evening, the center of PAENG may make another landfall over the east coast of Quezon.
Considering the southward shift in the forecast track, the landfall scenario may change in the succeeding bulletins.
 PAENG is forecast to further intensify while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and may reach
severe tropical storm category within 12 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to
take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly
susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall
warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA Page 4 of 4

Prepared by: SMRR Checked by: SFD

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 805 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph