METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS

EJEMPLO
Proyectar la población para el año 2033 con los siguientes datos estadísticos:

n Año Poblacion x x2
2
n1 ≔ 1 t1 ≔ 1967 p1 ≔ 28300 x1 ≔ p1 ⋅ 0.001 = 28.3 x1 = 800.89
n2 ≔ 2 t2 ≔ 1977 p2 ≔ 29500 x2 ≔ p2 ⋅ 0.001 = 29.5 x2 2 = 870.25
n3 ≔ 3 t3 ≔ 1987 p3 ≔ 30600 x3 ≔ p3 ⋅ 0.001 = 30.6 x3 2 = 936.36
n4 ≔ 4 t4 ≔ 1997 p4 ≔ 31850 x4 ≔ p4 ⋅ 0.001 = 31.85 x4 2 = 1014.423
n5 ≔ 5 t5 ≔ 2007 p5 ≔ 40880 x5 ≔ p5 ⋅ 0.001 = 40.88 x5 2 = 1671.174
n6 ≔ 6 n ≔ n5 = 5 t6 ≔ 2017 p6 ≔ 50660 x6 ≔ p6 ⋅ 0.001 = 50.66

razón de crecimiento en % (y) log. ((y)) xy x ⋅ log ((y))

⎛⎝x2 - x1⎞⎠
y1 ≔ ―――⋅ 100 = 4.24 log ⎛⎝y1⎞⎠ = 0.627 x1 ⋅ y1 = 120 x1 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y1⎞⎠ = 17.755
x1

⎛⎝x3 - x2⎞⎠
y2 ≔ ―――⋅ 100 = 3.729 log ⎛⎝y2⎞⎠ = 0.572 x2 ⋅ y2 = 110 x2 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y2⎞⎠ = 16.861
x2

⎛⎝x4 - x3⎞⎠
y3 ≔ ―――⋅ 100 = 4.085 log ⎛⎝y3⎞⎠ = 0.611 x3 ⋅ y3 = 125 x3 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y3⎞⎠ = 18.702
x3

⎛⎝x5 - x4⎞⎠
y4 ≔ ―――⋅ 100 = 28.352 log ⎛⎝y4⎞⎠ = 1.453 x4 ⋅ y4 = 903 x4 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y4⎞⎠ = 46.265
x4

⎛⎝x6 - x5⎞⎠
y5 ≔ ―――⋅ 100 = 23.924 log ⎛⎝y5⎞⎠ = 1.379 x5 ⋅ y5 = 978 x5 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y5⎞⎠ = 56.366
x5

Sumatoria promedio

Σx
Σx ≔ x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 Σx = 161.13 ―― = 32.226
n
Σy
Σy ≔ y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 Σy = 64.329 ―― = 12.866
n
Σlogy
Σlogy ≔ log ⎛⎝y1⎞⎠ + log ⎛⎝y2⎞⎠ + log ⎛⎝y3⎞⎠ + log ⎛⎝y4⎞⎠ + log ⎛⎝y5⎞⎠ Σlogy = 4.642 ――― = 0.928
n
Σx2
Σx2 ≔ x1 2 + x2 2 + x3 2 + x4 2 + x5 2 Σx2 = 5293.097 ―― = 1058.619
n
Σxy
Σxy ≔ x1 ⋅ y1 + x2 ⋅ y2 + x3 ⋅ y3 + x4 ⋅ y4 + x5 ⋅ y5 Σxy = 2236 ―― = 447.2
n
Σxlogy
Σxlogy ≔ x1 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y1⎞⎠ + x2 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y2⎞⎠ + x3 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y3⎞⎠ + x4 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y4⎞⎠ + x5 ⋅ log ⎛⎝y5⎞⎠ Σxlogy = 155.95 ――― = 31.19
n

Crecimiento Aritmético

Los valores de población xi e yi varían de manera exponencial siguiendo la siguiente ley:

Ec.01 Ec.02

Σy
―― - aa
n
 Σy
―― - aa
n
ba ≔ ――― Σy Σxy
Σx ―― - aa ―― - aa solve , a
―― n Σx a
n ―――＝ ―――― ――― → -39.364665473792123304
Σx Σx2
―― ――
n Σx
Σxy
―― - aa
Σx
ba ≔ ――――
Σx2
――
Σx

Ec.01 Ec.03

Σy
―― - aa
n
ba ≔ ――― Σy Σxy Σx
Σx ―― - aa ―― - aa ⋅ ――
――
n n n n solve , aa
―――＝ ―――――――― → -39.364665473792123304
Σx Σx2
―― ――
n n
Σxy Σx
―― - aa ⋅ ―― aa ≔ -39.3646
n n
ba ≔ ―――――
Σx2 ba = 1.621
――
n
ya ≔ aa + ba ⋅ xi

Años después Población Razón de Variación en miles

del ultimo crecimiento crecimiento por de habitantes
censo aritmético década en %
x6 ⋅ ya1 ⋅ 1
t6 ≔ 2017 0 x6 ≔ 50.66 ya1 ≔ aa + ba ⋅ x6 va1 ≔ ―――= 21.654
ya1 = 42.743 100

x7a ⋅ ya2 ⋅ 0.6

t7 ≔ 2027 10 x7a ≔ x6 + va1 ya2 ≔ aa + ba ⋅ x7a va2 ≔ ――――= 33.772
x7a = 72.314 ya2 = 77.838 100

t8 ≔ 2033 16 x8a ≔ x7a + va2

x8a = 106.086

Pf2023 ≔ x8a ⋅ 1000 = 106086.008

Pf2023 ＝ 106087 hab.

 Crecimiento Geométrico

Se considera que los valores xi e yi varían linealmente

Ec.01 Ec.02

Σlogy
――― -A
n
B ≔ ―――― Σlogy Σxlogy
Σx ――― - A ――― -A
―― n Σx solve , A
n ―――― ＝ ――――――― → -1.1142062854497670547
Σx Σx2
―― ――
n Σx
Σxlogy
――― -A
Σx
B ≔ ――――
Σx2
――
Σx

Ec.01 Ec.03

Σlogy
――― -A
n
B ≔ ―――― Σlogy Σxlogy Σx
Σx ――― - A ――― - A ⋅ ――
―― n n n solve , A
n ―――― ＝ ―――――― ――― → -1.1142062854497670547
Σx Σx2
―― ――
n n
Σxlogy Σx
――― - A ⋅ ―― A ≔ -1.1142
n n
B ≔ ――――――
Σx2 B = 0.063
――
n

Entonces a y b se determinara mediante

B
ag ≔ 10 A ag = 0.077 bg ≔ ――― bg = 0.146
log ((e))

yg ≔ ag ⋅ e bg ⋅ xi
 Años después Población Razón de Variación en miles
del ultimo crecimiento crecimiento por de habitantes
censo aritmético década en %
x6 ⋅ yg1 ⋅ 1
t6 ≔ 2017 0 x6 ≔ 50.66 yg1 ≔ ag ⋅ e bg ⋅ x6 vg1 ≔ ―――= 63.291
yg1 = 124.932 100

x7g ⋅ yg2 ⋅ 0.6

t7 ≔ 2027 10 x7g ≔ x6 + vg1 yg2 ≔ ag ⋅ e bg ⋅ x7g vg2 ≔ ――――= 876939.187
x7g = 113.951 yg2 = 1282628.55 100

t8 ≔ 2033 16 x8g ≔ x7g + vg2

x8g = 877053.138

Pf2023 ≔ x8g ⋅ 1000 = 877053137.519

Pf2023 ＝ 877053138 hab.