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Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil

Article in Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology · August 2023

DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2023.105327

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 Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 141 (2023) 105327

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology

incorporating Trenchless Technology Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tust

Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil

Mengzhe Huo a, b, Weizhong Chen a, *, Guojun Wu a, Jingqiang Yuan a, Yunfa Li a, b
a
State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071, China
b
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: the limit analysis incorporated with the random field theorem is an effective approach for the probabilistic
Tunnel face stability analysis of tunnel face stability. However, the existing incorporation procedure is not sufficiently efficient and
Random field accurate. A modified random field model, which is directly superimposed onto the rotational failure mechanism,
Limit analysis
is proposed to address this issue. In comparison with previous methods, the proposed approach avoids the
Rotated anisotropy
Multi-layered soil
generation of redundant random field elements and evades the inaccurate matching procedure of the elements,
thereby enabling efficient and accurate estimation of the failure probability of a tunnel face. Moreover, cross-
correlated random fields with the rotated anisotropy are readily generated with the proposed approach. Para­
metric sensitivity analysis is performed with Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the effects of the coefficient
of variation, the scale of fluctuation, cross-correlation coefficient, and rotated anisotropy on the failure proba­
bility of a tunnel face. It is found that: (1) the failure probability is more sensitive to the scale of fluctuation in the
vertical direction than that in the horizontal direction; (2) neglecting the cross-correlation of soil shear strength
parameters leads to a slightly conservative design for tunnel face stability; (3) the influence of rotated anisotropy
on the failure probability of a tunnel face is limited unless the soil exhibits high levels of uncertainty in its friction
angle. Application of the proposed approach to multi-layered soil demonstrates its superiority in the probabilistic
analysis of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil.

1. Introduction
The key issue in shield tunneling is the stability of a tunnel face.
Insufficient support pressure risks the collapse of soil and unfavorable
ground movements. The uncertainty of soil properties has a significant
impact on the assessment of tunnel face stability, which generally
originates from spatial variability, model transformation variability, and
experimental errors, among others (Yang et al., 2022). The spatial
variability of soil properties is the primary source of uncertainties in
engineering practice, which poses a threat to the safe construction of a
shield tunnel (Jiang et al., 2022a). Therefore, evaluating the face sta­
bility of the tunnel driven in spatially variable soil is of great benefit to
the geotechnical practice.
The stability of tunnel faces has been extensively investigated using
various methods, including model tests (Atkinson and Potts, 1977;
Kirsch, 2010; Weng et al., 2020), numerical simulations (Chen et al.,
2011), and analytical methods based on the limit equilibrium method
(Anagnostou and Kovari, 1994; Chen et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2019) and
the limit analysis method (Leca and Dormieux, 1990; Mollon et al.,
2010; 2011a; Pan and Dias, 2016a). Among these available methods, the
limit analysis method is extensively utilized due to its rigorous bounds
on the solution. This approach entails the determination of the statically
admissible stress field (lower-bound solution) or the kinematically ad­
missible velocity field (upper-bound solution), wherein the upper-bound
solution is more frequently employed in comparison to the lower-bound
solution. Several collapse mechanisms have been proposed to estimate
the critical supporting pressure applied to a tunnel face using the kine­
matic approach (upper-bound theorem). In terms of fictional and/or
cohesive soil, Davis et al. (1980) derived upper and lower bound sta­
bility solutions for collapse under undrained conditions using plastic
theory; Leca and Dormieux (1990) investigated the face stability of a
tunnel driven in sandy soils based on the kinematically admissible fail­
ure mechanism of rigid conical blocks from the perspective of limit
analysis; Soubra (2000) improved the failure mechanism proposed by
Leca and Dormieux (1990) by using a modified mechanism consisting of
a sequence of conical blocks to allow the slip surfaces to develop more
freely; Subsequently, Mollon et al. (2010) overcame the shortcoming of
the mechanism presented by Leca and Dormieux (1990) and Soubra
(2000) by using a spatial discretization technique that considers the

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: wzchen@whrsm.ac.cn (W. Chen).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2023.105327
Received 9 March 2023; Received in revised form 29 June 2023; Accepted 17 July 2023
0886-7798/© 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327
Nomenclature
n, δβ Discretization parameters
rE/D, βE Parameters used for optimizing the geometry of the
rotational failure mechanism
σc Collapse pressure in homogenous soil
σr Critical collapse pressure in homogenous soil
Eki , Fki Random field value on the vertex of a hexahedral element
and a triangular element
Fk Averaged random field value assigned to a failure
mechanism element
ρ(τx, τy, τz) Autocorrelation coefficient between any two spatial
locations
τx, τy, τz Relative distances between any two locations in x, y, and z
directions
δx, δy, δz Scales of fluctuation in x, y, and z directions
θ x, θ z Rotational angles around the x-axis and z-axis in the
clockwise direction
δ1, δ3 Orthogonal principal directions in a bedding plane
δ2 Principal direction perpendicular to the bedding plane
C Autocorrelation matrix
L Lower triangular matrix
φ, c Soil frictional angle and soil cohesion
Fk Lognormally distributed random field of a variable
μlnk , σlnk Mean value and standard deviation of the normally
distributed random field lnFk
μk , σ k Mean value and standard deviation of a lognormally
distributed random field Fk
ρφ,c Cross-correlation coefficient between φ and c
ρ′φ,c Cross-correlation coefficient between lnφ and lnc
covφ, covc Coefficients of variation of φ and c
F φ ,̂
̂ Fc Standard normal random fields of φ and c
entire circular tunnel face to determine the face collapse pressure of a
circular tunnel. Similarly, Mollon et al. (2011a) modified the rotational
failure mechanism proposed by Subrin and Wong (2002) using the
spatial discretization technique, which enables the failure mechanism to
pass through the entire tunnel face and outperforms the existing trans­
lational failure mechanisms. The preceding works provide a theoretical
foundation for the limit analysis method on tunnel face stability. Sub­
sequently, numerous researchers have investigated the stability of a
tunnel face with an improved failure mechanism by considering influ­
ential factors such as seepage flow (Li et al., 2021a; Pan and Dias, 2016b;
Han et al., 2021), non-homogeneous soils (Pan and Dias, 2016a; Zou
et al., 2019a), multi-layered soil (Ibrahim et al., 2015; Senent and
Jimenez, 2015; Han et al., 2016), soil arching effect (Zou et al., 2019b),
among others.
Previous studies on tunnel face stability have primarily assumed soils
to be homogeneous and isotropic, which ignores the spatial variability of
natural soil properties due to geological processes (Zhang et al., 2020).
Spatial variability in soil properties can significantly vary from one
position to another and exhibit a tendency for values at one point to be
correlated to values at nearby points. Neglecting these characteristics of
natural soil may lead to inaccurate estimations of the collapse pressure
of a tunnel face (Jiang et al., 2022b). The random field theory, popu­
larized by Vanmarcke (1983), has been commonly used to model the
spatial variability of soils. Thereafter, efforts have been made to inves­
tigate the impact of the spatial variability of soils on the stability of a
tunnel face using random field theory in combination with the rotational
failure mechanism. Mollon et al. (2011b; 2011c) proposed a new 2D
limit analysis failure mechanism to determine the critical collapse
pressure of a tunnel face considering spatially variable shear strength
2
ξφ , ξc Standard normal random series of φ and c
Fφ , Fc Cross-correlated lognormally distributed random fields of
φ and c
Fφi,j , Fci,j Averaged random field values of φ and c assigned to a
failure mechanism element
Fφi,j , Fφi+1,j , Fφi,j+1 Vertex values of φ for a triangular random field
element
Fci,j , Fci+1,j , Fci,j+1 Vertex values of c for a triangular random field
element
vj
→ Unit velocity vector of a failure mechanism element
→
N Normal vector of a failure mechanism element
σT , σv Applied face pressure and collapse pressure in spatially
variable soil
g Limit state function
N Size of the MC population
I(g) Indicator function
Pf Failure probability
COV(Pf) Coefficient of variation of failure probability
σ vp p quantile of collapse pressure σv
n Sample size of the calculated collapse pressure σv
[np] + 1 The smallest integer greater than np
σ v(i) The ith observed value of the sample
N+ Positive integer
Si Soil interface
rA, βA Polar coordinate of the point A at tunnel crown
r B, β B Polar coordinate of the point B at tunnel invert
rJi , βJi Polar coordinate of the intersection point Ji with the soil
interface Si
ni
→ Normal vector applied at point Mi
Pi Discretized spatial point
parameters. Cheng et al. (2019a) extended this method to investigate 2D
tunnel face stability in soils with spatial variability. However, the pro­
posed 2D failure mechanisms only allowed for longitudinal slip along
the tunnel axis to be explored. To address this limitation, Cheng et al.
(2019b) further extended the 3D rotational failure mechanism devel­
oped by Senent and Jimenez (2015) to investigate tunnel face stability,
considering the spatial variability of soil frictional angle. Li et al.
(2021b; 2022) constructed a 3D stochastic geological model, combined
with the mechanism proposed by Mollon et al. (2011a), to analyze the
probabilistic stability of the tunnel face driven in soils and weak rock
masses, respectively. However, it has been discovered that the incor­
poration procedure of the random field model with the rotational failure
mechanism is not sufficiently efficient and accurate, highlighting the
need for further enhancements and optimizations in this regard. (Li
et al., 2021b; Li et al., 2022; Cheng et al., 2019b). Rotated anisotropy is a
common pattern of soil spatial variability resulting from complex
geological history. It is the general case of horizontal transverse
anisotropy (i.e., a horizontally deposited fabric pattern of soil), with the
principal scales of fluctuation being orthogonal but simultaneously
rotated by a certain angle. This random field modeling, incorporating
rotated anisotropy, has been implemented in the probabilistic analysis
of slope stability and has proven to have a significant effect on numerical
results (Griffiths et al., 2009; Huang et al., 2019; Zhu et al., 2019).
However, there is a lack of research on the impact of rotated anisotropy
of soil on tunnel face stability. Therefore, further investigation in this
area is warranted.
This study investigates the impact of soil spatial variability on the
probabilistic stability of a tunnel face using the rotational failure
mechanism proposed by Mollon et al. (2011a). Soil spatial variability is
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327
modeled using a random field model that is directly superimposed onto
the slip surface of the rotational failure mechanism. The covariance
matrix decomposition and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method are
employed to construct 3D cross-correlated random fields that take into
account the rotated anisotropy of soil shear strength parameters. Para­
metric sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effects of the
scale of fluctuation, cross-correlation coefficient, and rotated anisotropy
on the failure probability of a tunnel face. The main contribution and
novelty of this work is a modification to previous methods of generating
3D random fields for the probabilistic analysis of tunnel face stability
with the rotational failure mechanism. In comparison with the regular
random field model, the modified random field model avoids the gen­
eration of redundant random field elements which are not involved in
the calculation procedure and evades the inaccurate matching proced­
ure of elements, thus enabling efficient and accurate estimation of the
failure probability of a tunnel face with a fully utilized and perfectly
matched random field model.
2. Three-dimensional failure mechanism
The rotational failure mechanism proposed by Mollon et al. (2011a)
has been demonstrated to be effective in predicting tunnel face stability
and has been validated against existing experimental results (Ibrahim
et al., 2015; Takano, 2006). Moreover, apart from enabling the slip
surface to pass through the entire tunnel face, the discretization tech­
nique proposed by Mollon et al. (2011a) also facilitates its incorporation
into a random field model for evaluating the face stability of a circular
tunnel driven in spatially variable soils or fractured rock masses. In this
study, the rotational failure mechanism proposed by Mollon et al.
(2011a) is employed to assess tunnel face stability, as illustrated in
Fig. 1. The tunnel has a circular shape with a diameter of D and is
excavated at a cover depth of C. A uniformly distributed support pres­
sure is applied on the tunnel face. The single rigid block rotates with a
uniform angular velocity ω around a horizontal x-axis passing through
point O, and the rotational failure mechanism is generated based on n
discretized points (represented as Aj) along the contour of the circular
tunnel face and radial planes (represented as Π) that intersect at point O
and are perpendicular to the velocity field. Subsequently, all the dis­
cretized points that represent the contour of the mechanism are gener­
ated ‘point by point’ with the discretization technique proposed by
Mollon et al. (2011a). This technique divides the discretization process
into two sections: Section 1 consists of radial planes that cut through the
tunnel face, while Section 2 comprises radial planes that are separated
by a constant angle δβ. Thus, the accuracy of the rotational failure
Fig. 1. 3D rotational failure mechanism.
3
mechanism depends on the discretization parameters n and δβ. The ge­
ometry of the mechanism is entirely defined by the two parameters, rE/D
and βE. Further details on the rotational failure mechanism can be found
in Mollon et al. (2011a). Using the method proposed by Mollon et al.
(2011a), the rotational failure mechanism is generated ‘point by point’,
as shown in Fig. 2.
The collapse pressure σ c can be determined by applying the upper
bound theorem of limit analysis. According to this theorem, the soil mass
attains its utmost load capacity without failure when the total rate of
external force equals the total rate of internal energy dissipation. In this
study, it is assumed that the tunnel is excavated in a dry, fictional and/or
cohesive soil without any surcharge loading on the ground surface.
Based on the assumption and the deviation presented by Mollon et al.
(2011a), the expression for the collapse pressure σ c can be given as
follows:
∑ ( ) ∑ ( )
′ sinβ′
γ i,j Ri,j Vi,j sinβi,j + R′i,j Vi,j ′ ′
i,j − ccosφ i,j Ri,j Si,j + Ri,j Si,j
σc = ∑( ) (1)
j Σj Rj cosβj
where γ denotes soil unit weight; c and φ represent the soil cohesion
and soil friction angle, respectively; Ri,j , Vi,j , βi,j , Si,j , R′i,j , V′i,j , β′i,j , S′i,j ,
Σj , Rj , and βj have been explained in Mollon et al. (2011a). The com­
mon unconstrained optimization program embedded in MATLAB soft­
ware is used to maximize the collapse pressure σ c given by Eq. (1) with
respect to the parameters of rE/D and βE. The equation for this procedure
can be expressed as follows:
σ r = max(σ c ) (2)
where σ c is the critical collapse pressure. During the optimization
process, a moderate number of iterations are performed to obtain the
critical collapse pressure σr.
3. Tunnel face stability analysis with a modified random field
model
3.1. Modeling soil variability with a modified random field model
3.1.1. The modified random field model
A random field model for characterizing the spatial variability of soil
properties is necessary for the probabilistic analysis of tunnel face sta­
bility. The conventional approach of building a random field model
incorporated with the rotational failure mechanism is based on the full
space of soil (Cheng et al., 2019b; Li et al., 2021b; Li et al., 2022).
Fig. 2. Generation of discretized points.
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327
Fig. 3. Incorporation of the rotational failure mechanism into a regular random
field model.
Admirably, the connection between the random field theorem and the
rotational failure mechanism is established and the spatial variability of
soil properties is well-simulated with this method. However, the incor­
poration procedure of this connection is found to be inaccurate since a
number of adjacent failure mechanism elements in a common unit are
assigned with the same random field value, resulting in the generation of
a locally homogenized random field on the rotational failure mecha­
nism, as shown in Fig. 3. The random field values are calculated with the
vertex data of the hexahedral random field elements, which is given by:
1∑
8
Fk = Ek
8 i=1 i
where Eki is the random field value on the vertex of a hexahedral
element; Fk is the averaged random field value assigned to the failure
mechanism element. It is also found that the construction of a random
field model for the entire domain is considered inefficient, as the vast
majority of spatial points are not involved in the calculation of the
collapse pressure of a tunnel face.
Specifically, a total of 480,000 random field elements are con­
structed with the regular random field model developed by Li et al.
(2021b), and 76,179 failure mechanism elements are generated using
the discretization parameters of n = 400 and δβ = 0.5◦ , as shown in
Fig. 4. However, only the 506 random field elements adjacent to the
failure mechanism elements are used in calculating the collapse pressure
Fig. 4. The regular random field model constructed by Li et al. (2021b).
Fig. 5. Distribution for the quantity of the failure mechanism elements within
adjacent random field elements.
of a tunnel face. This results in a low utilization rate of the random field
elements (0.11%), which is found to be inefficient. Moreover, the uti­
lization rate is no more than 8% even though the random field model is
downsized. Furthermore, considerable failure mechanism elements are
locally homogenized with regard to random field values since the
76,179 failure mechanism elements are filled into 506 random field
elements and are assigned with the corresponding random field values.
Fig. 5 shows the number distribution of the 76,179 failure mechanism
elements in the 506 random field elements. Therefore, it is believed that
the failure mechanism elements and the random field elements are not
perfectly matched, and this mismatch leads to inaccurate estimates of
(3)
collapse pressure. Reducing the element size does not contribute to the
solution of this problem but leads to a substantial increase in the
computational cost of random field modeling. Hence, there is still ample
potential for further enhancement of the conventional approach in
constructing a random field model.
As opposed to the regular random field model, the modified random
field model proposed in this study is directly based on the spatial points
that are discretized from the rotational failure mechanism. As illustrated
in Fig. 6, the generated random field elements are perfectly super­
imposed onto the rotational failure mechanism elements. The random
field values are computed using the vertex data of the triangular random
field elements, as provided by:
1∑ 3
Fk = Fk (4)
3 i=1 i
Fig. 6. Incorporation of the rotational failure mechanism with a modified
random field model.
4
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Fig. 7. Construction of a correlation coefficient matrix: (a) a single exponential function, (b) arrangement of grid points, and (c) the heatmap of autocorrela­
tion matrix.

where Fki denotes the random field value on the vertex of a triangular [ (⃒⃒ ⃒ ⃒ ⃒
( ) τx cosθz + τy sinθz ⃒ ⃒ − τx sinθz + τy cosθz ⃒
element. This modification eliminates the need for generating redundant ρ τx , τy , τz = exp − 2 +
δ1 δ2
random field elements that are not involved in the calculation procedure )]
and avoids the inaccurate incorporation procedure of the elements. As a +
|τ z |
(7)
result, this approach enables efficient and accurate estimation of δ3
collapse pressure with a fully utilized and perfectly matched random where θx and θz are the rotational angles around the x-axis and z-axis
field model. in the clockwise direction, respectively; δ1 and δ3 refer to the two
orthogonal principal directions in a bedding plane; and δ2 denotes the
3.1.2. Generation of standard normal random fields of φ and c one principal direction perpendicular to the bedding plane. If the rota­
Within the framework of the random field theorem, the soil prop­ tional angles of θx and θz equal to 0◦ or 180◦ , the expressions of auto­
erties of a specific point are considered as the random variables that are correlation functions of Eqs. (6) and (7) degenerate into Eq. (5) with the
correlated with adjacent variables. Autocorrelation functions are parameters δ1, δ2, and δ3 being equivalent to the parameters δx, δy, and
commonly employed to characterize the correlation between any two δz, respectively.
spatial points. Previous studies have demonstrated that the form of the Since the establishment of Vanmarcke’s (1983) random field theo­
autocorrelation function has limited impact on tunnel face stability (Li rem, numerous methods have been proposed for generating random
and Lumb, 1987).Therefore, in this paper, the single exponential auto­ fields to model the spatial variability of soils, including the turning
correlation function given by Eq. (5) is adopted, which is generally used bands method (Matheron, 1973), the local average subdivision method
to model the horizontal transverse anisotropy of soil. (Fenton and Vanmarcke, 1990), the moving average method (Journel,
⃒ ⃒
( )
[ (
|τ x | ⃒ τ y ⃒ |τ z |
)] 1974), the Karhunen-Loeve expansion method (Zheng and Dai, 2017),
ρ τx , τy , τz = exp − 2 + + (5) and the covariance matrix decomposition method (Davis, 1987), among
δx δy δz
others. In this study, the covariance matrix decomposition method is
where ρ(τx, τy, τz) denotes the autocorrelation coefficient between employed due to its high efficiency, accuracy, and ease of imple­
any two spatial locations; τx, τy, and τz are the relative distances between mentation. To generate a random field using this method, an autocor­
any two locations in x, y, and z directions, respectively; δx, δy, and δz relation matrix is constructed with the autocorrelation coefficients
denote the corresponding scale of fluctuation in each direction. The between any two random variables in space. If a random field is dis­
scale of fluctuation describes the distance over which the soil parameters cretized into a certain number of elements with a total of n unique grid
are correlated; The autocorrelation function given by Eq. (5) in 2D form points, the autocorrelation matrix C is given by:
is shown in Fig. 7(a). It is deduced from the figure that a shorter distance ⎡ ( ) ( )⎤
between two spatial points results in stronger auto-correlation with ( 1 ) ρ τx12 , τy12 , τz12 ⋯ ρ( τx1n , τy1n , τz1n )
⎢ ρ τx12 , τy12 , τz12 1 ⋯ ρ τx2n , τy2n , τz2n ⎥
respect to soil properties. Conversely, the spatial point that is further C=⎢ ⎣
⎥
⎦ (8)
⋮ ⋮ ) ⋱ ⋮
apart is found to be less correlated. To model the rotated anisotropy of ( ) (
ρ τx1n , τy1n , τz1n ρ τx2n , τy2n , τz2n ⋯ 1
soil with the rotation around the x-axis and z-axis, the autocorrelation
function of Eq. (5) is modified as follows: Using the equations provided in Eqs. (5) to (8), the autocorrelation
[ ( ⃒ ⃒ ⃒ ⃒) ] matrix C is constructed based on any arrangement of spatial points. As
( ) |τ | ⃒τy cosθx − τz sinθx ⃒ ⃒τy sinθx + τz cosθx ⃒
ρ τx , τy , τz = exp − 2 x + + shown in Fig. 7, the heatmap of the autocorrelation matrix (Fig. 7 (c)) is
δ1 δ2 δ3 derived from the relative distances of the grid points (Fig. 7 (b)), which
(6) shows the autocorrelation coefficients of any two grid points whose

5
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Table 1
Random field properties of soil.
Soil property Mean value (μ) Coefficient of variation (cov) Cross-correlation coefficient (ρφ,c ) Scales of fluctuation Rotational angles
δ1 = δ3 δ2 θx θz

φ 17◦ 0.1 − 0.5 10 m 1m 0◦ 135◦

c 7 kPa 0.2 10 m 1m 0◦ 135◦

positional indexes have been annotated in each color region. Since the parameters are identical, the n × 1 cross-correlated lognormally
covariance matrix C is symmetric positive-definite, Cholesky factoriza­ distributed random fields of Fφ and Fc can be obtained with the equa­
tion can be employed to decompose the covariance matrix C into a tions given as follows:
product of an n × n unique lower triangular matrix L and its transpose, as
given by:
̂ φ)
Fφ = exp(μlnφ + σ lnφ F (15)
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ) ]
C = L⋅LT (9) [ (
Fc = exp μlnc + σ lnc F̂ φ ρ′φ,c + F
̂ c 1 − ρφ,c ′2
(16)
In this study, the soil shear strength parameters of φ and c of soil are
assumed to be spatially variable. Then, the n × 1 standard normal In this study, the random field properties presented in Table 1 are
adopted to illustrate the realization of the random fields incorporated
random field of ̂F φ or ̂
F c is obtained by multiplying the lower triangular
with the rotational failure mechanism. The constructed random fields of
matrix L and the n × 1 standard normal random series of ξφ or ξc, as
soil shear strength parameters are superimposed directly onto the dis­
given by:
cretized spatial points, as depicted in Fig. 8. These spatial points are
̂ φ, F
[F ̂ c ] = L[ξφ , ξc ] (10) generated using the spatial discretization technique, and their corre­
sponding soil shear strength parameters are assigned based on the mean
Various autocorrelated standard normal random fields of ̂ F φ or F
̂c values provided in Table 1. The subsequent analysis is conducted for a
with the same autocorrelation structure can be obtained using the lower tunnel with a diameter of D = 10 m and a cover depth C = 10 m; and the
triangular matrix L and different standard normal random series of ξφ or unit weight of soil γ is set as 18kN/m3. For the visibility of the random
ξc. To ensure that the Monte Carlo (MC) method is performed with an fields, the coarse discretization parameters (n = 80 and δβ = 2◦ ) are
adequate size of MC population, the standard normal random fields of F̂φ selected.
and ̂F c are generated repeatedly with Eq. (10). To generate an evenly
distributed random series of ξφ or ξc over the sample space, the Latin 3.2. Calculation of collapse pressure in spatially variable soil
Hypercube Sampling (LHS) strategy is employed.
To determine the values of φ and c for a failure mechanism element,
3.1.3. Generation of cross-correlated random fields of φ and c the average of the vertex values of the corresponding random field
The variability of soil shear strength parameters of φ and c is element (depicted in Fig. 9) is calculated with the equations given as
commonly modeled as a lognormal random field due to its non- follows:
negativity. The construction of a lognormally distributed random field 1( )
Fk can be derived using the following equation: F φi,j = Fφi,j + Fφi+1,j + Fφi,j+1 (17)
3
̂ k)
Fk = exp(μlnk + σlnk F (11) 1( )
F ci,j = Fci,j + Fci+1,j + Fci,j+1 (18)
where k represents the random variable of φ or c defined in (0, ∞); 3
μlnk and σlnk denote the mean value and standard deviation of a normally where Fφi,j and Fci,j represent the averaged random field values that
distributed random field lnFk , respectively, which is given by: are assigned to the failure mechanism element. Subsequently, the locally
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
( ) averaged cross-correlated random fields with rotated anisotropy are
σ 2k
σ lnk = ln 1 + (12) constructed, as illustrated in Fig. 10.
μ2k Using the locally averaged random field of φ, the slip surface is re­
generated with the spatial discretization technique to account for the
σ2lnk influence of the stochastic distribution of soil friction angle on its shape.
μlnk = lnμk − (13)
2 The regeneration process of the slip surface adheres to the normality
where μk and σk is the mean value and standard deviation of a condition, which signifies that the unit velocity vector → vj forms an angle
lognormally distributed random field Fk . Previous studies have shown →
of (π/2 +Fφi,j ) with the normal vector N of a failure mechanism element,
that the shear strength parameters of φ and c are generally negatively
as depicted in Fig. 11. This condition is mathematically expressed by the
correlated (Lumb, 1970). Therefore, the correlation between φ and c is
following equation:
characterized by the cross-correlation coefficient ρφ,c . To obtain the
→ ( )
cross-correlation coefficient ρ′φ,c between lnφ and lnc, the equation →v j ⋅ N = cos π/2 + F φi,j (19)
proposed by Fenton and Griffiths (2008) is used, which is written as →
follows: Subsequently, the normal vectors N for each triangular facet can be
( ) obtained in sequentially. Meanwhile, all the discretized points repre­
ln 1 + ρφ,c covφ covc senting the contour of the mechanism soil are regenerated ‘point by
ρ′φ,c = √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
( ) ( )̅ (14)
ln 1 + cov2φ ln 1 + cov2c point’ using the discretization technique proposed by Mollon et al.
(2011a). This technique enables the accurate regeneration of rotational
where covφ and covc are the coefficients of variation of φ and c, failure mechanisms in spatially variable soil. The collapse pressures σv of
respectively. Assuming that the spatial correlation structures of the two a tunnel face in spatially variable soil can be determined using the
modified equation as presented below:

6
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

∑ ( ′ ′ ′
) ∑ (
′ ′ ′ ′
)
γ
i,j Ri,j Vi,j sinβi,j + Ri,j Vi,j sinβi,j − i,j F ci,j Ri,j Si,j cosF φi,j + F ci,j Ri,j Si,j cosF φi,j
σv = ∑( ) (20)
j Σj Rj cosβj

It should be noted that the primary objective of this study is to
investigate the impact of spatial variability in soils on the collapse
pressure of a tunnel face, whereas the optimization procedure aims to
determining the critical support pressure with respect to the parameters
of rE/D and βE. Consequently, the optimized coordinates of the control
point O in spatially variable soil may deviate from that obtained from
the homogeneous soil scenario. Furthermore, the presence of various
random field distributions leads to disparities in the coordinates of the
optimized control point O. Consequently, this hinders a practical com­
parison between the shape of slip surfaces and the resulting collapse
pressures obtained under various realizations of random fields, and
those derived in the homogeneous scenario. Therefore, the optimization
procedure for spatially variable soil is not implemented in this study.
It is necessary to develop more refined random fields of soil shear
strength parameters for an accurate estimation of the collapse pressure
σ v. Therefore, the deformed slip surface is generated with the commonly
used discretization parameters (n = 400 and δβ = 0.5◦ ) and the soil
properties presented in Table 1, as shown in Fig. 12 (a). The locally
averaged random fields of φ and c are displayed in Fig. 12 (b) and (c).
The unevenness of the regenerated slip surface is attributed to the spatial
variability of φ. Additionally, on a computer with 32 GB of RAM and an
Intel Core i7-11700 Processor clocked at 4.9 GHz, the computing time is
approximately 220 s for the generation of the random fields of soil shear
strength parameters and 4.5 s for one calculation of collapse pressure σ v.
3.3. Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face stability
Based on the assumption that a uniform support pressure σT is
applied on a tunnel face, the limit state function g is therefore given by:

Fig. 8. One realization of the discretized random fields of (a) φ and (b) c.

Fig. 9. Realization of locally averaged random fields of (a) φ and (b) c.

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M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327
Fig. 10. One realization of the locally averaged random fields of (a) φ and (b) c.
Fig. 11. Illustration for the normality condition in spatially variable soil.
g = σT − σv
where σv is the collapse pressure in spatially variable soil. The limit
state function g is used to determine the stability of the tunnel face,
where g ≥ 0 indicates the tunnel face is stable, while g < 0 indicates the
occurrence of tunnel face collapse.
In the subsequent analysis, the critical collapse pressure σr maxi­
mized from Eq. (1) is taken as the support pressure σT . This support
pressure is determined within a homogeneous soil scenario, utilizing the
specified shear strength parameters outlined in Table 2. Following
rigorous calculation, the critical collapse pressure σr in homogeneous
soil is determined to be 37.8 kPa, aligning closely with the result derived
by Mollon et al. (2011a). This agreement serves as evidence that the
constructed computational model successfully reproduces the 3D rota­
tional failure mechanism. The collapse pressure σv in spatially variable
soil is calculated with Eq. (20) based on the constructed random fields of
soil shear strength parameters with the soil properties presented in
Table 2.
MC simulation enables the estimation of failure probability by
repeatedly running the deterministic model with different realizations of
random fields, whereby the corresponding collapse pressure σ v is
derived and the failure probability Pf is calculated with the equation
given by:
∑N
Pf = i=1
I(gi )
(22)
N observed. Under different covc, the failure probability of a tunnel face
where N signifies the size of the MC population. The indicator
function I(g) is defined as I(g) = 1 for g < 0 and I(g) = 0 for g ≥ 0. With
the parameters shown in Table 2, the distribution of collapse pressure σ v
is generated with 2000 MC samples, as shown in Fig. 13. It is observed
that the distribution of collapse pressure σv conforms to a normal dis­
tribution. With the support pressure σ T equal to the critical collapse
pressure σr, the failure probability is computed to be 50.9%. To deter­
mine the adequate size of MC population N for the reliable estimation of
failure probability Pf, the commonly used equation presented in Eq.(23)
is employed.
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
( )̅
( ) 1 − Pf
COV Pf = (23)
NPf
where COV(Pf) is the coefficient of variation of failure probability. To
derive the reliable estimation of failure probability Pf, an iterative MC
procedure is applied until the value of COV(Pf) is<0.04. The final result
(21) for the failure probability Pf is taken from the last iteration. The rela­
tionship between the failure probability Pf and the MC population size N
under different values of COV(Pf) is shown in Fig. 14. It is observed that
the adequate size of the MC population N decreases with the increase in
failure probability Pf.
4. Comparison and analysis
4.1. Comparison with the results from regular random field model
To validate the proposed method, a comparison with the results
given by Li et al. (2021b) is performed using the same soil properties
presented Table 2 for the construction of the random fields. Due to the
length constraints of this paper, only the failure probability of a tunnel
face versus the scale of fluctuation in the horizontal direction δ1(δ3)
under different values of covφ and covc is presented in Fig. 15 for com­
parison purposes. The variation trends of the probability curves are
found to be consistent with the results presented by Li et al. (2021b).
Specifically, the failure probability increases first and then levels off
with the increase in the scale of fluctuation in the horizontal direction
δ1(δ3). However, the variation trend of the failure probability under
different values of covφ and covc deviates significantly from the results
presented by Li et al. (2021b). The influence of covφ on the failure
probability of a tunnel face is limited, with no obvious regularity being
exhibits a slightly narrow variation range. Generally, under the same
coefficient of variations of soil shear strength parameters, an increased
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M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Fig. 12. One realization of (a) deformed slip surface generated with the fine random fields of (b) φ and (c) c.

Table 2
Basic parameter settings for a spatially variable soil.
Soil property Mean value (μ) Coefficient of variation (cov) Cross-correlation coefficient (ρφ,c ) Scales of fluctuation Rotational angles
δ1 = δ3 δ2 θx θz

φ 17◦ 0.1 0 10 m 1m 0◦ 0◦
c 7 kPa 0.2 10 m 1m 0◦ 0◦

scale of fluctuation leads to a higher failure probability, unless the soil
exhibits a small scale of fluctuation.
4.2. Cause of the discrepancy in results
To elucidate the cause for this discrepancy, the evolutions of the
failure probability Pf with normalized support pressure σ T /γD under
different covφ and covc as δ1(δ3) equals to 21.5 m are presented in Fig. 16.
The minimum normalized support pressure σ r /γD required to prevent
the collapse of a tunnel face in homogeneous soil are marked with dotted
lines on Fig. 16. It is shown in Fig. 16 (a) that the dotted line passes
through the intersection point of the probability curves under different
covφ. Thus, no obvious trend of failure probability Pf is observed in
Fig. 15 (a) with the increase in covφ. If the intersection point was on the
left of the dotted line (Fig. 16 (b)), an increasing failure probability Pf
would have been obtained with the increase in covc, as shown in Fig. 15
(b). Therefore, it is concluded that the wide range of the variations in the
failure probability Pf under different covφ and covc presented by Li et al.
(2021b) is attributed to the significant difference in the relative position
between the intersection point and the dotted line.
It is further found that the discrepancy between the curves shown in
Fig. 15 is attributed to the locally homogenized failure mechanism el­
ements in the regular random field model shown in Fig. 3. This results in
the abnormal deformations of the slip surface and the deviation in the

Fig. 13. Distribution of collapse pressure in spatially variable soil. Fig. 14. Relationship between Pf and N under different values of COV(Pf).

9
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Fig. 15. Failure probability versus δ1(δ3) under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

Fig. 16. Failure probability versus σT /γD under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

Fig. 17. Views of slip surfaces under different values of covφ and covc.

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M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327
intersection points, thus leading to the discrepancy of the curves shown
in Fig. 15.
4.3. Influence of coefficient of variation on collapse pressure
The shapes of the slip surfaces are generated to investigate the
impact of covφ values on collapse pressure, as depicted in Fig. 17. The
corresponding collapse pressures are determined to be 37.8 kPa, 38.5
kPa, 40.3 kPa, and 40.7 kPa, respectively. In Fig. 17 (a), a state of ho­
mogeneous soil is represented, while Fig. 17 (b), (c), and (d) signify the
presence of spatial variability in the soil structure. Additional soil
properties employed in the calculation have been provided in Table 2.
Notably, it is observed that the slip surface exhibits an increasing level of
irregularity as the covφ increases This observation highlights the ability
of the proposed approach to accurately characterize the deformation of a
slip surface arising from the stochastic distribution of φ.
To further demonstrate the collapse pressure change under different
values of covφ and covc, the quantile is utilized as the measure of central
tendency to assess the distribution of collapse pressure σv under different
values of covφ and covc. The p quantile of collapse pressure σv (denote as
σ vp) is determined with the equations given as follows:
⎧ and δβ = 0.7◦ are sufficient to obtain a reasonable estimate of failure
⎨ σ v([np]+1 ) , ∈ N+
np ∕
σ vp = 1 [ (24)
⎩ σ v(np) + σv(np+1) ], np ∈ N +
2 scale of fluctuation has limited bearing on the failure probability of a
where n represents the sample size of the calculated collapse pressure
σ v; [np] + 1 denotes the smallest integer greater than np; σ v(i) (1 ≤ i ≤ n)
is the ith observed value of the sample; N+ signifies a positive integer. As
shown in Fig. 18, the quantile lines of the collapse pressure σv are pre­
sented in to illustrate its distributions under different values of covφ and
covc. The results reveal that the values of σ v0.2 and σv0.8 gradually deviate
from σ v0.5 as covφ and covc increase, indicating a progressively more
dispersed distribution of the collapse pressure σv. Further analysis
demonstrates that the collapse pressure is highly sensitive to variations
in covφ, as the stochastic distribution of φ leads to the deformation in the
shape of the slip surface. Moreover, it is observed that σv0.5 decreases
with increasing covφ, indicating a reduced central tendency of the
collapse pressure σ v as covφ grows.
5. Parametric sensitivity analysis
It is well-established that the failure probability of a tunnel face is
influenced by various factors. Evaluating the impacts of each factor on
the failure probability of a tunnel face is of great benefit for geotechnical
Fig. 18. Central tendency of collapse pressure σv with varying covφ and covc.
11
practice. Therefore, parametric sensitivity analysis is conducted to
investigate the effects of various factors on the failure probability of a
tunnel face. These factors include the coefficient of variation (covφ, covc),
the scale of fluctuation (δ1, δ2, δ3), cross-correlation coefficient (ρφc), and
rotated anisotropy (θx, θz) on the failure probability of a tunnel face,
which are crucial for characterizing the spatial variability of soil shear
strength parameters. The basic soil properties utilized for the sensitivity
analysis have been provided in Table 2. To strike a balance between
accuracy, time–cost, and computational memory for generating random
fields in subsequent analyses, the discretization parameters of n = 280
and δβ = 0.7◦ are employed. The computational time required for one
realization of the random fields of soil shear strength parameters is
approximately 30 s, while one calculation of the collapse pressure σ v
takes about 1.7 s.
5.1. Influence of scale of fluctuation
The evolution of failure probability with the scale of fluctuation was
examined under different covφ and covc, and the results were presented
in Fig. 19 and Fig. 20. Comparing these results with those presented in
Fig. 15 and Fig. 19 shows that the discretization parameters of n = 280
probability of a tunnel face. The probability curves were observed to
increase initially and then level off with increasing δ2, indicating that the
tunnel face, except in cases where the soil has a small scale of fluctua­
tion. Furthermore, it is also found that the failure probability is more
affected by the scale of fluctuation in vertical direction δ2 than that in
horizontal direction δ1(δ3). Generally, the failure probability of a tunnel
face increases with growing covφ under different scales of fluctuation in
vertical direction δ2 except that the soil is of small values of δ2. None­
theless, the value of covc has no bearing on the variation trend of the
failure probability with the scale of fluctuation, which gradually in­
creases with growing covc.
5.2. Influence of cross-correlation coefficient
Numerous experiments have shown that the correlation coefficients
between the soil shear strength parameters of φ and c range from − 0.7 to
− 0.24 (Cherubini, 2000). In this section, the cross-correlation coeffi­
cient ρφ,c is assumed to be between − 0.7 and 0, and its influence on the
failure probability of a tunnel face is investigated. It is found that the
influence of the cross-correlation coefficient ρφ,c on the failure proba­
bility of a tunnel face is limited. Fig. 21 shows that the failure probability
of a tunnel face slightly increases with the increase in ρφ,c . This obser­
vation implies that without taking into account the cross-correlation of
soil shear strength parameters, a slightly higher failure probability of a
tunnel face is obtained, leading to a slightly conservative design for
tunnel face stability. Nonetheless, the effects of covφ and covc on the
failure probability of a tunnel face are more significant. As the value of
covφ beyond 0.1, the failure probability gradually decreases with an
increase in covφ. Conversely, a growing trend of the failure probability is
observed with an increase in covc.
5.3. Influence of rotated anisotropy
This section investigates the influence of rotated anisotropy on the
failure probability of a tunnel face. The rotational angles of θx and θz,
ranging from 0◦ to 180◦ at an interval of 20◦ , are selected to fully
characterize the bedding plane orientation of soil along the x and zdir­
ections, as shown in Fig. 22 and Fig. 23. It is discovered that the failure
probability of a tunnel face with growing rotational angles of θx and θz is
more sensitive to high values of covφ, indicating that the influence of
rotated anisotropy on the failure probability of a tunnel face is limited
except in cases where the soil exhibits high uncertainty levels of φ. This
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Fig. 19. Failure probability versus δ1(δ3) under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

Fig. 20. Failure probability versus δ2 under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

Fig. 21. Failure probability versus ρφ,c under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

indicates that the incorporation of rotated anisotropy in the modeling of probability curves intensify dramatically as covφ increases. Furthermore,
single-layer soil can be disregarded to enhance computational effi­ the failure probability peaks at high values of covφ with the rotational
ciency, unless the soil exhibits high levels of uncertainty in its friction angles of θx and θz near 90◦ (nearly vertical), changes slightly with the
angle. Fig. 22 (a) and Fig. 23 (a) demonstrate that the fluctuations of the rotational angles of θx and θz under different covc, and increases

12
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Fig. 22. Failure probability versus θx under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

Fig. 23. Failure probability versus θz under different (a) covφ and (b) covc.

gradually with growing covc, as shown in Fig. 22 (b) and Fig. 23 (b). It is
also found that the evolutions of failure probability with the rotational
angle of θz exhibit more significant fluctuations than that of θx.
6. Application to multi-layered soil
meet at point F. Accordingly, it is possible to derive a numerical solution
of the polar coordinates of point F. In a polar (r, β) coordinate system
centered at O, the equations for the log-spiral CA, CB, and CJi are given as
follows:
r = rA exp((β − βA )tanφi+1 ) (25)

The face stability of a tunnel driven in multi-layered soil is of great r = rB exp((β − βB )tanφi ) (26)
significance for the engineering design of a shield tunnel, as natural soil
is generally composed of distinct layers with different mechanical and r = rJi exp((β − βJi )tanφi+1 ) (27)
physical properties. Therefore, the proposed approach is applied to
multi-layered soil to conduct the probabilistic analysis of tunnel face where rA, rB, rJi , βA, βB, and βJi can be easily identified in Fig. 24.
stability. Due to the scarcity of accessible geological exploration data After obtaining the polar coordinates of point F, the initial rotational
from actual tunnel projects, a hypothetical tunnel project is presented as failure mechanism is generated by the ‘point by point’ spatial dis­
a potential application for the proposed approach. The geological data cretization technique, which is assigned with the soil friction angle of
presented by Li et al. (2021b) is adopted to illustrate the advantage of the layer to which point B belongs. The discretized points are then
̅̅→
the modified random field model over the regular random field model. partitioned based on the dot product of vectors → ni and Pi Mi to determine
which soil layer the point Pi belongs to, as expressed by the following
equation:
6.1. Random field modeling of multi-layered soil
̅̅→
→
ni ⋅Pi Mi (28)
The central vertical cross-section of the rotational failure mechanism
in multi-layered soil is analogous to that in single-layer soil, as shown in where →ni is the normal vector applied at point Mi; Pi denotes a dis­
Fig. 24. The two logarithmic spirals (CA and CB) emerging from points A ̅̅→
ni ⋅Pi Mi = 0 indicates the point Pi is a surface point
cretized spatial point; →
and B have a common center O, with the log-spiral CB crossing the soil on the interface Si, while →
̅̅→
ni ⋅Pi Mi < 0 or →
̅̅→
ni ⋅Pi Mi > 0 signifies the point Pi
interface Si and intersecting at the point Ji, from which a new log-spiral lies below or above the interface Si, respectively, as illustrated in Fig. 25.
is generated with the friction angle φi+1 corresponding to the new layer The point Pi is then assigned with the soil friction angle corresponding to
of soil. If the failure mechanism does not outcrop, the slip lines finally

13
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327
Fig. 24. Cross-section of the rotational failure mechanism in a two-layer soil.
Fig. 25. Illustration for the determination of the layer position of a dis­
cretized point.
the soil layer it belongs to. Subsequently, the position of the point Pi is
recalculated with the spatial discretization technique. Having obtained
the rotational failure mechanism in homogeneous multi-layered soil, the
critical collapse pressure is able to be calculated with the same
14
Fig. 26. Interface of different soil layers.
optimization procedure. Assuming that the random fields of different
soil layers are independent, the random fields of soil shear strength
parameters are constructed layer by layer using the method outlined in
section 3.1. To incorporate the random fields into the rotational failure
mechanism, the mechanism is regenerated using the constructed
random fields and the normality condition expressed by Eq. (19). Sub­
sequently, the corresponding collapse pressure in spatially variable
multi-layer soil is obtained with Eq. (20).
Through the modified random field model for multi-layered soil, the
spatial variability of multi-layered soil is modeled without involving the
entire soil space. Therefore, the proposed approach improves compu­
tational efficiency by fully utilizing random field elements and enhances
computational accuracy by avoiding inaccurate matching procedures of
elements.
6.2. Reliability-based design of required support pressure
The interface of different soil layers and the extension of the tunnel
are presented in Fig. 26, based on the proposed approach and the soil
profile data given by Li et al. (2021b) (Table 3). The critical failure
mechanism of the tunnel face at each soil section is obtained with the
optimization procedure, which has been incorporated with the random
fields of soil shear strength parameters, as shown in Fig. 27. Subse­
quently, the probabilistic analysis of tunnel face stability at the same soil
sections (Z = 20 m, 40 m, 60 m, and 80 m) is investigated using the
proposed approach and the same soil properties shown in Table 3. The
evolutions of failure probability Pf with the support pressure σ T varying
from 0 to 20 kPa are presented in Fig. 28. To obtain an adequate sample
size, the size of the MC population is set as 5 × 104, and the computing
time for each soil section is approximately 25 h.
To estimate the required support pressure of any given tunnel section
with allowable failure probability, a reliability-based design of required
support pressure is performed using the reliability index β as an indi­
cator for the assessment of failure probability. The target reliability
index β recommended by JCSS (2001) is 3.1 – 4.7 for ultimate limit
states, while Eurocode (CEN, 2007) suggests that the target reliability
index is 3.8 for ultimate limit states. The reliability index β of 3.8, cor­
responding to a failure probability of 7.23 × 10-3 %, is selected as the
target value for comparisons with the results given by Li et al. (2021b).
The target reliability index β of 3.8 is been marked in Fig. 28. As a result,
the required support pressures on the tunnel face at different soil sec­
tions are calculated to be 2.25 kPa, 5.55 kPa, 9.62 kPa, and 15.06 kPa,
respectively, which is far less than the results presented by Li et al.
(2021b) (Fig. 29). This is due to the locally homogenized failure
mechanism elements with regard to the random field values, which
leads to the abnormal deformation of a slip surface. Therefore, a wide
range of variation in the calculated collapse pressure of a tunnel face is
obtained with the regular random field model, contributing to the
discrepancy between the results presented in Fig. 28 and Fig. 29.
M. Huo et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research 141 (2023) 105327

Table 3
Parameter settings for different soil layers.
Soil layer Soil property Mean value (μ) Coefficient of variation (cov) Cross-correlation coefficient (ρφ,c ) Scales of fluctuation Rotational angles
δ1 = δ3 δ2 θx θz

I c 5.8 kPa 0.23 − 0.24 2m 0.8 m 0◦ 15◦

φ 15.3◦ 0.14 2m 0.8 m 0◦ 15◦
II c 12.6 kPa 0.18 − 0.35 8m 1m 0◦ 20◦
φ 18.8◦ 0.11 8m 1m 0◦ 20◦
III c 20.3 kPa 0.14 − 0.35 12 m 1m 0◦ 10◦
φ 25.4◦ 0.09 12 m 1m 0◦ 10◦
IV c 27.8 kPa 0.13 − 0.48 15 m 1.5 m 0◦ 0◦
φ 30.5◦ 0.08 15 m 1.5 m 0◦ 0◦

Fig. 27. Critical failure mechanism of the tunnel faces at various soil sections incorporated with the random fields of (a) φ and (b) c.

Fig. 28. Design chart for different soil sections(obtained with the pro­ Fig. 29. Design chart for different soil sections (modified from Li et al.
posed approach). (2021b), Fig. 20).

It is essential to acknowledge that this study is predicated on the 7. Conclusions

assumption that shield tunnels are excavated in dry soil, which could
potentially result in an underestimation of the face stability of shield
tunnels driven in aquifers. Consequently, this assumption elucidates the
underlying reasons for the observed low values in the required support
pressure, as calculated using the employed computational model. It
should be acknowledged that shield tunnels are commonly driven in
aquifer conditions in geotechnical practice. Therefore, further in­
vestigations are essential to incorporate the influences of seepage flow
on the probabilistic stability of tunnel faces. Additionally, efforts should
be directed towards enhancing the accessibility of soil properties con­
cerning the scale of fluctuation, cross-correlation coefficient, and
rotated anisotropy to facilitate the application of the proposed approach
to an actual tunnel project.
To investigate the impact of spatial variability of soil shear strength
parameters on the stability of a tunnel face, a modified random field
model is incorporated with the rotational failure mechanism. A com­
parison with the results presented by Li et al. (2021b) is made to validate
the proposed approach. A parametric sensitivity analysis is conducted to
investigate the effects of the coefficient of variation, the scale of fluc­
tuation, cross-correlation coefficient, and rotated anisotropy on the
failure probability of a tunnel face. Application of the proposed method
to multi-layered soil demonstrates its effectiveness in the probabilistic
analysis of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil. The following
conclusions are drawn from this work:
(1) The cross-correlation of shear strength parameters and the
rotated anisotropy of soil can be effectively simulated with the

15
M. Huo et al.
modified random field model, which is shown to be superior to
the regular random field model. It suggests that the fully utilized
and perfectly matched random field model greatly improves
computational efficiency and accuracy in estimating the failure
probability of a tunnel face compared with the regular random
field model.
(2) A comparison between the results obtained from the regular
random field model and the proposed modified random field
model reveals that, under the same coefficient of variations of soil
shear strength parameters, an increased scale of fluctuation leads
to a higher failure probability, unless the soil exhibits a small
scale of fluctuation. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the
proposed modified random field model is more suitable for
accurately characterizing the deformation of a slip surface caused
by the stochastic distribution of soil friction angles.
(3) The parametric sensitivity analysis reveals that the failure prob­
ability of a tunnel face is influenced by random field parameters
to varying degrees. The scale of fluctuation has a limited impact
on the failure probability of a tunnel face, except when dealing
with soils that exhibit a small scale of fluctuation. Fluctuations in
the vertical direction have a greater impact on the failure prob­
ability than those in the horizontal direction. Neglecting the
cross-correlation of soil shear strength parameters could result in
a slightly conservative design for tunnel face stability. Addition­
ally, the impact of rotated anisotropy on tunnel face failure
probability is negligible, unless the soil exhibits high levels of
uncertainty in its friction angle.
(4) Application of the proposed approach to an engineering case
demonstrates its superiority in analyzing multi-layered soil. The
spatial variability of multi-layered soil is modeled efficiently
without involving the entire soil space. It is believed that the
proposed approach provides a more efficient and accurate esti­
mation of the probabilistic analysis of tunnel face stability in
multi-layered soil.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
No data was used for the research described in the article.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National
Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52179116), and the
support of Key Deployment Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences
(Grant No. ZDRW-ZS-2021-3).
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