Professional Documents
Culture Documents
page 2
October 2023 Southern California Housing Snapshot
-7.4% YTY Existing Home Sales
-25.2% YTD % change
page 3
October 2023 Central Coast Housing Snapshot
+1.9% YTY Existing Home Sales
-23.0% YTD % change
page 4
October 2023 Central Valley Housing Snapshot
-11.3% YTY Existing Home Sales
-24.6% YTD % change
page 5
October 2023 Bay Area Housing Snapshot
-3.9% YTY Existing Home Sales
-24.6% YTD % change
page 6
October 2023 Far North Housing Snapshot
-2.3% YTY Existing Home Sales
-26.9% YTD % change
page 7
Sales
page 8
Sales inch up but remain near 16-year low (excluding pandemic
shutdown)
California, October 2023 Sales: 241,770 Units, -11.9% YTY, +0.3% MTM
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-23
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
Sep-21
Sep-23
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
May-22
page 9
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Annual sales declines extend to 28 consecutive months
100%
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% -11.9%
-20%
-40%
-60%
0%
-60%
-40%
-20%
100%
120%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Bay Area
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Bay Area annual sales decline slows
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
May-23
Page 11
Sep-23
-3.9%
YoY % chg.
0%
-60%
-40%
-20%
100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
So CA
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
SoCal sales below last year’s level, but rate of decline shrinks
May-23
Sep-23
Page 12
-7.4%
YoY % chg.
0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-10 50%
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Central Valley
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
Central Valley sales remain subdued – declines ebb
Jan-21
6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
May-23
Sep-23
Page 13
-11.3%
October 2023 Sales by Region
Home Sales by Region Home Sales Growth by Region
YTY % MTM %
Other Far North 20%
Counties 3% 8.8% 11.5%
6% 10%
0.0%
3.0% 1.9%
0%
Central Valley -2.3%
-3.9% -3.9%
21% Southern -10% -7.4% -4.2%
-7.6%
California -11.3%
44% -20%
S.F. Bay
Area
22% Central
Coast Page 14
4%
Sales at the top end of the market exhibit growth
Page 15
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales growth rises at the top price segments
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
350% $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
YTY % Chg. in Sales
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
30%
20% 25.5%
10%
0%
-10% COVID-19
-20% Outbreak
Nov-19
Feb-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
SERIES: Sales by Price Range Page 17
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales rate of decline getting smaller
100%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% -7.8%
-20%
-40%
-60%
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales Page 18
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales remain subdued for all property types
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-22
Jul-23
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Jul-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Jul-21
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales Page 19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales growth remains negative at all price segments
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
500%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
Jan-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Jul-23
Sep-23
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Page 20
Pending sales showing sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
page 22
California median home price increases modestly for 4th
month in a row
California, October 2023: $840,360, -0.4% MTM, +5.3% YTY
$1,000,000
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-23
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
Sep-21
Sep-23
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
May-22
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes Page 23
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Condo/Townhome median price recorded solid gain
California, October 2022: $620,000, October 2023: $660,000
$800,000
$700,000
Median Price
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Aug-07
Aug-14
Aug-21
Jan-07
Jun-13
Jun-20
Mar-08
Jan-14
Jan-21
Apr-12
Nov-12
Mar-15
Apr-19
Nov-19
Mar-22
Jul-10
Jul-17
May-09
Dec-09
Sep-11
May-16
Dec-16
Sep-18
May-23
Oct-08
Feb-11
Oct-15
Feb-18
Oct-22
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes Page 24
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price growth for all property types continues upward trend
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
14.0% 13.1%
12.0%
10.0% 9.6%
8.6%
8.0% 6.7% 7.1%
5.9% 5.8%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0% 1.1%
0.0%
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes Page 27
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median prices nearly steady with price per sq./ft. gains
Year to Year Change in Existing SFR Prices (August 2023)
Median Price $/Sq. Ft.
14% 12.0%
12% 8.1%
10%
8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.3% 6.5%
5.3% 5.7% 5.7%
6% 4.0% 4.0%
4% 1.4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6% -4.3%
-5.6%
-8%
SFR Condo Central Central Far North S.F. Bay Southern
Coast Valley Area California
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes Page 28
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
The Price/Square foot gap between home types widened
slightly
Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome
$700
$600 $570
PRICE PER SQ. FT.
$500
$421
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes and Condo/Townhomes Page 29
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales price-to-list price ratio holds steady amidst tight market
conditions
106% October 2023: 100.0%, 0.0% MTM, +2.7% YTY
104%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes Page 30
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of homes sold above asking price on downward
trend, but remains elevated due to competition
80% Apr-22, 72.9%
% of sales with price above asking
70%
60%
50% 42.1%
40% 26.3%
price
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-17
Jan-18
Oct-17
Oct-18
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Oct-23
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Apr-19
Jul-19
Apr-20
Jul-20
Apr-21
Jul-21
Apr-22
Jul-22
Apr-23
Jul-23
SERIES: Sales with sold price above asking price (Existing SFH) Page 31
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Homes sold above asking price - by county
October 2023: % sold above asking price
80%
70%
60%
50%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
List price vs. sales price
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Listing Price
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Sales Price
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: List price growth and sales price growth
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Page 33
YTY% Chg. in Price
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-20%
-10%
0%
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
0-20
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
20-40
Price growth by percentiles
Apr-20
Jul-20
40-60
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
60-80
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
80-100
Apr-22
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Percent Change in Price
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Page 34
Oct-23
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
50% 120.0%
40% 100.0%
80.0%
30%
Market Velocity
60.0%
20%
40.0%
10%
20.0%
0%
0.0%
-10% -20.0%
-20% -40.0%
YTY% Chg.
5% 20%
4% 10%
0%
3%
-10%
2% -20%
1%
Jul-20
May-21
Jan-18
Oct-21
Mar-22
Jan-23
Sep-19
Feb-20
Jun-18
Nov-18
Dec-20
Apr-19
Jun-23
Aug-22
0%
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
May-18
Sep-18
May-19
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-20
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
May-23
Sep-23
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
30%
20%
10% 13.1%
5.3%
0%
-10%
-20%
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth Page 37
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory &
Active Listings
page 38
Inventory constraints remain biggest challenge in the market
18.0
October 2022: 3.1 Months; October 2023: 2.7 Months
16.0
14.0
Months of Supply
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
May-22
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-23
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
Sep-21
Sep-23
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes Page 39
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory remains low by historical standards
October 2022: 3.1 Months; October 2023: 2.7 Months
5
4
Months of Supply
0
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-19
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Jul-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes Page 40
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Unsold Inventory remains a challenge in all regions
9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
Months of Supply
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes Page 41
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active listings grew slightly, but remain below last year
0
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
California Active Listings by Month
Jan-22
Apr-22
Active listings struggle to grow due to lock-in effect
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Page 43
Oct-23
100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Year-over-Year % Chg
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Active listings have remained below last year for 7 months in a row
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Page 44
-20.4%
New listings continue to decline year-over-year for
the 16th consecutive month
New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
35,000 60%
30,000 40%
26,581 25,310
# of new listings
0 -60%
Jan-18
Jun-18
Aug-22
Jan-19
Jun-19
Aug-23
Nov-18
Apr-19
Nov-19
Apr-20
Jan-23
Jun-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jul-21
Feb-20
Dec-20
May-21
Feb-21
Dec-21
May-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
SERIES: New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes) Page 45
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
New active listings barely replenish closed sales
Jan-23
Mar-23
Jan-22
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-21
Jul-23
Jan-20
Mar-20
Nov-20
Jul-22
May-23
Sep-23
Jan-19
Mar-19
Nov-19
Jul-21
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-18
Mar-18
Nov-18
Jul-20
May-21
Sep-21
Jul-19
May-20
Sep-20
Jul-18
May-19
Sep-19
May-18
Sep-18
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Page 47
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active listings by region
Oct-22 Oct-23
20,000
17,826
18,000
16,000
Active Listings
14,000 12,684
12,000
10,000 8,286
8,000 6,469
6,000 5,263
4,506
4,000
2,000 1,282 1,235 1,504 1,322
0
San Francisco Southern Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Bay Area California
1.9%
0%
-2.3% -3.7% -3.9%
-7.4%
-12.1% -14.4% -11.3%
-21.9%
-28.8%
-40%
Far North Central Coast San Francisco Central Valley Southern
Bay Area California
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-40.6%
-50%
page 51
Time on market increased from last month, but homes still
selling faster than last year
70 California, October 2022: 28 Days; October 2023: 20 Days
60
Days on Market
50
40
30
20
10
0
24 25
25 22 23 22 23
20 21 20 20
20 19 18 18 18
15
10
5
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes Page 55
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 37.4%; Median Reduction Amount: 5.2%
50% 10%
45% 9%
40% 8%
Median Reduction
35% 7%
(Absolute Value)
30% 6%
% Share
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
0.6%
5% 0.4%
0% 0.2%
-5% 0.0%
-0.2%
-10% -0.4%
-15% -0.6%
-20% -0.8%
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
9/1/2019
1/1/2020
5/1/2020
9/1/2020
1/1/2021
5/1/2021
9/1/2021
1/1/2022
5/1/2022
9/1/2022
1/1/2023
5/1/2023
9/1/2023
Share Reduced Median Reduction