Probability

Introduction
Probability of an event is defined as the proportion of times an event occurs in many
repetitions.
Probabilities are always between 0 and 1.

Four Basic Rules

Complement Rule
not A, ¬A

For an event A

P (A does not occur) = 1 − P (A)

Rule of equally likely outcomes

If there are n possible outcomes and they are equally likely, then

number of outcomes of A
P (A) =
n

Addition rule
A or B, A ∪ B

A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. As an
example, we role a dice

A=1 on f irst roll, B=6 on f irst roll,C=1 on second roll

A and B are mutually exclusive, but A and C are not

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

Multiplication rule
A and B, A ∩ B

Two events are independent if knowing that one occurs does not change the
probability that the other occurs. B and C are independent, but A and B are not

If A and B are independent, then

P (A or B) = P (A)P (B)
Conditional probability
A given B

The conditional probability of B given A is

P (A and B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

General Multiplication rule

P (A and B) = P (A)P (B|A)

\text{In special cases when A and B are independent : }P(\text{A or B}) = P(A)P(B)

## Baye's Rule

P(B|A)=\frac{P(\text{A and B})}{P(A)}=\frac{P(\text{B and A})}{P(A)}=\frac{P(A|B)P(B)}{P(A)}

P(B|A)==\frac{P(A|B)P(B)}{P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|\neg B)P(\neg B)}

# Odds In probability theory, odds provide a measure of the likelihood of a particular outcome. They are cal

\text{odds} = \frac{p}{1-p}

pidtheprobabilitythattheoutcomeoccur. 1 − pistheprobabilitythattheoutcomedoesnotoccur.