Module20 - Consequence Analysis

Risk ID & Assessment Training Course DNV Consulting
Module 20: Consequence Analysis (1) – Introduction & Discharge Modelling
MODULE 20
CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS (1)

INTRODUCTION & DISCHARGE MODELLING
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Module 20: Consequence Analysis (1) – Introduction & Discharge Modelling Page i
CONTENTS
20. CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS (1) – INTRODUCTION & DISCHARGE

MODELLING .......................................................................................................................1
20.1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1
20.2 INITIAL CONDITIONS AND DISCHARGE MODELLING ................................3

20.2.1 Initial Conditions for Scenarios........................................................................3
20.2.2 Discharge Parameters......................................................................................5
20.2.3 Continuous Discharges....................................................................................8
20.2.4 Instantaneous Releases..................................................................................11
20.2.5 Release in Buildings ......................................................................................12
20.2.6 Smoke Generation.........................................................................................12
20.3 SIMPLE DISCHARGE MODELS .......................................................................17

20.3.1 Gas Releases .................................................................................................17
20.3.2 Liquid and Two-Phase Releases ....................................................................22
20.3.3 Isolation and Blowdown of Hydrocarbon Leaks ............................................26
20.4 REFERENCES.....................................................................................................29
Module 20: Consequence Analysis (1) – Introduction & Discharge Modelling Page 1
20. CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS (1) – INTRODUCTION & DISCHARGE

MODELLING
20.1 INTRODUCTION
Consequence models are used to predict the physical behaviour of hazardous incidents. Some
models only calculate the effect of a limited number of physical processes, like discharge or
radiation effects. More complex models interlink the various steps in consequence modelling
into one package. This module provides an overview of the different models in a complex
consequence software program.
In onshore QRAs the hazards which need to be considered for each material fall into three
categories:
• Flammable
• Toxic
• Explosive
Some materials may fall into 2 of these categories, for example a material which is flammable
may produces toxic fumes when ignited; well fluid may include sour gas – hydrogen sulphide –
which is toxic. However, no matter which category a hazardous material falls into the
consequences of release can be modelled using similar techniques.
Consequence modelling covers the following:
• Modelling of discharge rates.
• Modelling of the size and shape of flammable and toxic gas clouds from releases above and
below the sea surface.
• Modelling of the smoke produced by burning liquids.
• Modelling of the flame and radiation field of the releases that are ignited and burn as gas
jets, liquid pools and flash fires.
• Modelling of explosion overpressures.
Modules 20 to 23 follow the flow of a release. Section 20.2 starts upstream of the release
point and specified initial conditions for each scenario. Discharge modelling is then discussed
to the point where the material has emerged into the atmosphere and has attained atmospheric
pressure. Module 21 deals with dispersion modelling, starting with the source terms, possible
pool formation, and follows the dispersion simulation to its conclusion. Module 22 describes
the modelling of the various flammable effects that can be calculated once the discharge and
dispersion calculations are complete. Figure 20.1 shows the general flow of a consequence
model.
When running consequence models the physical properties of the material being modelled may
have to be input or the data can be accessed via an interlinked materials data base. The use of
such a materials database will not be discussed in this module.
In order to calculate the risks to people or assets, it is necessary to determine how the various
physical effects impact on people or assets. This is addressed in Module 20.
Figure 20.1 Consequence Modelling Flow
Discharge Models
Dispersion Models
Flammable and Toxic Effect Models
20.2 INITIAL CONDITIONS AND DISCHARGE MODELLING
The first part of the consequence calculations is to define the dispersion source term. This part
of the process is referred to as “discharge”, “release” or “source-term” modelling.
20.2.1 Initial Conditions for Scenarios
The initial conditions given to the instantaneous and continuous discharge models depend on
the source of release and accidental event. Within a consequence model the initial conditions
for a release are set by defining characteristics of the release and the equipment which fails.
The release types described are pictorially illustrated as in Figure 20.2 to Figure 20.4.
Figure 20.2 Instantaneous Release (Catastrophic Rupture)
Vessel
Released material
Figure 20.3 Continuous Orifice Leak
Vessel
Orifice
Released material
Figure 20.4 Pipe Release (Rupture)
Vessel
Released material
Pipe
Rupture point
The material before release will be stored in a vessel under either pressurised or refrigerated
(unpressurised) conditions. The initial conditions are specified by the temperature, pressure,
phase, and liquid fraction (if stored as a saturated mixture of liquid and vapour).
Pressurised storage conditions occur for gases held in pressure vessels containing vapour only,
for vessels containing liquid under saturation conditions or for vessels which contain
pressurised liquid with no vapour present.
The other method of storage which can be modelled is refrigerated or unpressurised storage of
liquids. There are two types of unpressurised vessel, cooled and unsaturated, and saturated,
which are designed respectively for storage where the normal boiling point is above ambient or
the liquid is actively cooled by recirculation, and for storage where conditions are maintained
by liquefying any vapour given off. For both types of vessel a liquid head is required. The
liquid head is added to the ambient pressure of storage to define an initial pressure.
The initial rate of release of hydrocarbon through a leak depends mainly on the pressure inside the
equipment, the size of the hole and the phase of the release (liquid, gas or two-phase). The release
rate decreases with time as the equipment depressurises. This reduction depends mainly on the
hydrocarbon inventory and the action taken to isolate the leak and blow-down the equipment. For
large leaks from long pipelines, the reduction depends on the geometry of the line.
The release rate is important because it affects the size of the resulting gas cloud and hence the
probability of ignition; and then because it determines the size of the fire or smoke plume which
may result. The reduction in release rate (in effect, the duration of the release) is important because
it limits the damage which the fire may cause.
Models for calculating the initial release rates are available in most consequence modelling
packages. For single phase releases (i.e. stabilised oil or gas), the models are relatively simple, and
are suitable for manual calculation.
Models for calculating the reduction in release rate with time due to isolation and blow-down are
more complex, but are available in offshore-specific software and may also be implemented in
spreadsheets.
20.2.2 Discharge Parameters
The aim of the discharge modelling is to go from the initial conditions described to predict the
final state of the release as the material emerges into the atmosphere. The physical state of
each release case is described by up to seven variables which are listed later in this section.
Some types of release are described using only some of these. The intention behind the choice
of the seven variables is that they should be a complete physical description of the state of a
release immediately after the released material has reached atmospheric pressure, and before
any air has been mixed in (see Figure 20.5). They form the source terms for the further
modelling of the dispersion.
Figure 20.5 Discharge Zone
Fluid Pressure =Atmospheric Pressure
Reservoir
Fluid
Orifice
Fluid Flow
Discharge Dispersion
Reservoir Pressure >
Atmospheric Pressure
Mass Flow Rate
The flow rate for a continuous discharge includes all material, whether in the vapour or liquid
phase, but it does not include any entrained air. Discharge models calculate constant release
rates. For dispersion models a constant rate for a specified release duration is required. The
methods used to calculate mass flow rate depend on the type of release.
Duration
The release duration must be specified in order to calculate dispersion effects. The duration
may be limited by the equipment inventory, or it may be specified by the analyst having regard
for mitigating action such as equipment isolation.
Temperature
For liquids stored under pressure above their atmospheric boiling point, the “flash” on release
will always cool the discharge. If there is not 100% vaporisation, the temperature of the two
phase material will be its atmospheric boiling temperature, since the thermodynamic
equilibrium is assumed. For most pressurised gas releases there is a limited amount of cooling
due to the Joule-Thompson effect (exceptions are a small number of gases with positive Joule-
Thompson coefficients, e.g. hydrogen).
Pseudo-Velocity/Expansion Energy
For continuous releases, the pseudo-velocity is a measure of the turbulence of a jet. It is used
in the dispersion calculations as the determining factor for entrainment rate into a turbulent
momentum jet. This velocity is that attained after any post-orifice expansion has accelerated
the jet.
For choked flow the velocity will be higher than that in the orifice itself, since the pressure in
the throat is above ambient. The true situation in this expansion zone will be very complex,
containing shock fronts, rarefaction, etc. Therefore, in practice air will have been mixed into
the jet and some of the kinetic energy will have been dispersed as turbulence before the
pressure has reached a steady value equal to ambient. The pseudo-velocity that is calculated is
based on adiabatic expansion to atmospheric pressure, with no energy dissipation and will
therefore be an overestimate of the maximum velocity actually achieved.
For instantaneous releases the expansion energy is used as the basis of the initial turbulent
growth relationships used for instantaneously formed clouds. It is equal to the loss in internal
energy of the material during the thermodynamic expansion to atmospheric pressure, minus
the work done on the atmosphere, per unit mass.
Discharge Velocity
This is the velocity of the material in the orifice itself or at the end of the pipe. This velocity
should not be used directly in dispersion calculations, rather the pseudo-velocity should be
used.
Liquid Fraction
This is defined as the mass ratio of liquid flow rate to total flow rate in the release. Thus a
liquid fraction of 1.0 indicates a pure liquid release while a liquid fraction of 0 means a pure
vapour release. As the specific volume of the vapour is many times greater than that of the
liquid, the volume fraction of the vapour is still almost 1.0 even for a mass liquid fraction of
0.9.
The liquid fraction is the proportion of the release available for rain-out and hence pool
formation. The amount of rain-out depends on droplet size and settling velocities and is
calculated as part of the dispersion calculations. Any liquid condensation during a gas release
is assumed to form droplets which are too small to rain-out.
Droplet Trajectory and Size
A characteristic droplet size is calculated in order to be able to predict droplet trajectories.

These trajectories are used to determine the amount of rain-out into a pool formed by a
release.
The method used to calculate the droplet size depends on the type of discharge and its state
when released. For releases where liquid is present an average droplet size is used for
estimation of possible rain-out effects. This average represents the range of possible sizes for
the droplets present.
Where the liquid present is due only to condensation in a cooling vapour release the droplet
size is put equal to zero. This effectively leads to zero terminal velocity for the droplets and so
prevents any rain-out occurring. For releases of stored liquid material the size is determined by
the liquid velocity, or its superheat. The theory on which the modelling of the drop size has
been based is sparse, and has had to be extrapolated in various ways to give a complete
coverage of all cases of interest.
Some predicted droplet sizes will be very low, possibly smaller than would normally be
expected for even very fine mists. Such sizes may be obtained for high release velocities or
high superheats and mean that the droplet size will be very small. Below a certain droplet size
rain-out will not occur.
20.2.3 Continuous Discharges
Continuous releases are treated very generally, with the same basic methods being applied for
gas, two-phase and liquid flows, whether choked or unchoked. Two categories of releases are
considered for modelling purposes. The first category is for free flow from an orifice in an
infinite reservoir. This is an idealisation of a leak from a large vessel or large diameter pipe.
The second category is of flows from ruptures of pipes from an infinite reservoir at the end of
the pipe. Before describing the models used to calculate these flows it is appropriate first to
refer to the description of the initial conditions, see Section 20.2.1.
Discharge through an Orifice
The unimpeded flow through an orifice can be regarded as well approximated by reversible
adiabatic expansion, that is isentropic expansion. Only when the kinetic energy of release is
converted to heat does irreversibility enter the thermodynamics. The general approach to
modelling these flows is then to calculate the mass flux through the orifice as a function of
pressure in the plane of the orifice. For choked flows this will have a maximum at some point
above atmospheric pressure, while for unchoked flows the pressure in the orifice will be
atmospheric. The flow may or may not be in thermodynamic equilibrium; a saturated liquid
may not flash until outside the orifice, for example. This can be taken into account by forcing
the phase of the flow to remain unchanged when calculating the results of expansion.
The discharge through an orifice can conceptually be considered in two stages; firstly
expansion from the initial storage conditions to the conditions in the orifice, followed by an
expansion to ambient pressure outside the orifice if the flow is choked. The expansion to the
conditions in the orifice, specified by the temperature, pressure and liquid fraction will be
considered first. This expansion is generally assumed to be reversible and adiabatic, that is
isentropic. Thus, for a given orifice pressure, the temperature and/or liquid fraction must be
determined such that the entropy at the orifice plane is equal to that of the initial state
described above.
This is achieved by numerically iteration. The phase, temperature, and liquid fraction of the
material in the orifice are determined and from these the enthalpy and volume in the orifice.
The mass flow rate is then calculated
For gas flows an estimation of the choke pressure is made using the ideal gas formula. If the
choke pressure is less than the ambient pressure then the flow is unchoked. The pressure in the
orifice will then be ambient and the calculation described above can be carried out with the
orifice pressure equal to ambient pressure. However if is greater than the flow is choked. A
calculation of the flow rate is made for an orifice pressure equal to the choke pressure
calculated from the ideal gas equation. To allow for non-ideality in the actual equation of state
the orifice pressure is then varied until the maximum flow rate has been found.
For two-phase flow the orifice discharge calculation described above is first carried out for an
orifice pressure equal to the ambient pressure. Another calculation is then carried out at a
slightly higher orifice pressure. If there is not an increase in flow rate as the pressure is
increased then the flow through the orifice is unchoked. The pressure in the orifice is therefore
ambient and the final state parameters are those equal to the condition of the material in the
orifice. If the flow rate through the orifice increases as the pressure is raised above ambient the
flow is choked and has a maximum value at a choke pressure which is greater than the ambient
pressure. This choke pressure is determined by repeating the calculations described above,
numerically iterating on the orifice pressure until the mass flow rate is maximised. It is very
unlikely that the flow of a liquid would be choked.
If the flow is choked then the pressure in the orifice is above ambient and there will be an
expansion of the material outside the orifice to ambient pressure. This is also treated here as an
isentropic expansion. Numerical iteration can again be used to find the final state.
As before from the results of this expansion the enthalpy of the final state can be calculated.
Using the assumption that all the energy released in the expansion is converted into kinetic
energy the velocity of material at ambient pressure can be calculated
For choked flows the final velocity does not correspond to a physically real velocity; it is
therefore referred to as the pseudo-velocity. It has been developed to be used as a parameter
describing the initial kinetic energy in a discharge for input to a dispersion model. These
models have been calibrated to produce the correct amount of entrainment when used with
this effective velocity. It should be noted that for unchoked flow the orifice and pseudo-
velocities are equal.
For incompressible fluids, i.e. liquids, a value of 0.6 is used for the discharge coefficient; a
value which is well known to be appropriate in this case. For compressible fluids the method
described in Bragg (1960) is used to calculate the discharge coefficient, generalised to any
equation of state rather than being specific to the ideal gas equation of state.
Discharge through a Pipe
For pipes, the equations of flow (see e.g. Perry and Chilton 1973) are solved numerically for a
given outlet pressure and a certain mass flux in the pipe. As the pressure drops along the pipe,
the state of the material is evaluated from irreversible expansion, conserving the mass flux. For
two-phase flows it is assumed that the flow is homogeneous and in thermodynamic
equilibrium. The results of this calculation are to give the frictional losses that correspond to a
certain outlet pressure and flow rate. For any given pipe the losses from valves, friction along
the length of the pipe and miscellaneous other losses are known and so the flow in the pipe is
varied until the frictional losses match.
Initially an orifice discharge calculation (described above) is carried out to obtain a starting
value for the mass flow rate in the pipe and the pressure at the outlet. This is the maximum
initial flow rate; the actual flow rate will be lower due to frictional losses in the pipe. Note that
the calculations allow for friction losses due to pipe roughness, bends, junctions, valves etc.
Using an iterative calculation to be carried out is a time-consuming process so instead a

logarithmic interpolation of flow against pipe frictional resistance is used to estimate the actual
flow. Although this interpolation is usually good it can mean that slightly different results for
the same length of pipe can be obtained, depending on how the interpolation is set up. Note
that the calculations allow for friction losses due to pipe roughness, bends, junctions, valves
etc.
If the outlet pressure is the same as the ambient pressure then the flow is unchoked at the
outlet and the thermodynamic state at the outlet and the flow velocity in the pipe become
those of the final state. On the other hand if the flow is choked at the outlet of the pipe, that is
if the outlet pressure is greater than the ambient pressure, the material is allowed to expand
reversibly and adiabatically outside the pipe to ambient pressure. This is carried out in the
same way as the expansion outside the orifice for choked flow. This expansion gives the final
thermodynamic state of the release and the final velocity.
Droplet Size
If the final state of the released material contains liquid then a calculation of the size of the
liquid droplets is carried out. For non-flashing liquids the calculation is based on the value of
the Weber number for the escaping liquid.
If the drop has a Weber number which is larger than a critical value Wcrit the drop will not be
stable and will break up into smaller droplets. The actual value of Wcrit depends on several
factors such as whether the drop is suddenly exposed to stationary air or whether it falls freely
from rest. Wcrit can also depend on the type of break-up mechanism involved and even on the
viscosity of the material. For the purposes of the following discussion, these complications
have been ignored.
To allow for slip between the emerging liquid and vapour, the velocity used in the calculation
of the Weber number is not the full pseudo-velocity, but rather a velocity which has been
reduced by a slip coefficient.
Thus if a jet is not liable to flash, the drop size corresponding to Wcrit is calculated and if this is
smaller than the size of the jet the final droplet size is taken to be this value. Droplet radii are
always limited to the jet radius or a maximum drop size, set in the parameter file, and taken
fairly arbitrarily to be 0.01 m. However, given the range of velocities and length scales, any
further increase in this maximum drop size would be unlikely to affect the kinematic behaviour
of the drop.
For flashing jets, the only experimental data seems to be that of Brown and York (1961),
although this is not particularly recent. In their paper they describe experiments performed on
jets of flashing liquids, and present correlations for drop size involving various physical
quantities such as the Weber number for the flow. According to their account, a quantity of
central importance to determining break-up of such a jet is the “bubble growth-rate constant”.
To obtain values of the bubble growth-rate constant, it is first necessary to obtain values for
the thermal conductivity of the liquid. These were derived from semi-empirical relations in
Perry and Chilton (1973). The values of the bubble growth-rate constant for each material is
calculated from the constants in the property database.
20.2.4 Instantaneous Releases
Instantaneous releases are considerably simpler to model than continuous releases, not
requiring a rate to be calculated.
An instantaneous release is normally assumed to form a homogeneous mass, expanding rapidly

to form a semi-spherical cloud. The basis for this is that for a truly instantaneous release, the
actual expansion will take place essentially outside the vessel. The expansion of an
instantaneous release is, as for continuous releases, taken to be initially a reversible adiabatic
expansion. As for continuous releases, describing the models used to calculate these flows it is
appropriate first to refer to the description of the initial conditions, see Section 20.2.1.
Flash Calculation
Upon release the stored material is assumed to expand reversibly and adiabatically to ambient
pressure. In such an expansion entropy is conserved. Thus the temperature and/or liquid
fraction of the final state must be determined such that the entropy of the final state is equal to
that of the initial state.
This is achieved by numerically iteration. In this process the phase, temperature, and liquid
fraction of the final state are determined and from these the enthalpy and volume of the final
state are calculated.
Expansion
In the adiabatic expansion to atmospheric pressure a certain amount of enthalpy is released. In

addition the expanding material has to do work to drive back the atmosphere. The expansion
energy of a release takes both of these quantities into account and is the energy released by
adiabatic expansion of the material, minus the work done on the atmosphere.
This quantity is used in the correlation from Maurer et al. (1977) to describe the initial stages
of cloud dilution. The implicit assumption in this is that all the energy released by the
reversible expansion goes into the kinetic energy of the release. Even if this is only
approximately true, the actual rate of dilution was based on experimental results, correlated
against this quantity. Therefore it is the appropriate physical parameter to describe the state of
an instantaneous release.
Droplet Size
Just as for continuous releases, instantaneous releases have a droplet size estimated. In this
case the velocity used in the drop size calculations is determined from the expansion energy on
the basis that this is a measure of the kinetic energy in the cloud.
It should be noted that this velocity is only indicative of the actual velocity of droplets in the
cloud. In reality there would be a distribution of droplet velocities and sizes. The values of the
slip coefficient and the critical Weber number for instantaneous releases are held in the
parameter file.
Experimental data on droplet sizes have been gathered by Pettitt et al. (1992).
20.2.5 Release in Buildings
This section describes the way indoor releases can be modelled. Similarly to outdoor releases
the source term and whether rain-out occurs etc, have to be specified and input into the model.
In addition the dimension of the building or room have to be specified. Sophisticated indoor
models which are used for simulation of releases in offshore modules, but also suitable for
onshore purposes, will require the layout of the objects within that building to be specified.
The building may be ventilated either naturally, by open windows for example, or by a forced
fan. In either case the ventilation rate or number of air changes per hour have to be specified in
order to allow for dilution of the material released inside the building.
20.2.6 Smoke Generation
20.2.6.1 Application
Smoke from burning hydrocarbons consists of a mixture of gaseous combustion products and
unburned carbon particles. The term smoke is used here to describe the mixture, and soot to
describe the solid particles. Note that some sources use the term smoke to describe the solid
particles alone.
Smoke is generated by any burning hydrocarbon, but in an offshore QRA, where smoke
hazards are most relevant, it is most significant when produced by burning liquids such as
crude oil.
The nature of the smoke depends strongly on the supply of oxygen to the fire. Two basic
types are distinguished:
• Well-ventilated (or fuel-controlled) fires, which occur in the open, such as on the ground,
on an open deck or on the sea surface. These fires have sufficient air to achieve complete
combustion.
• Under-ventilated (or ventilation-controlled) fires, which occur inside buildings or modules.

These fires are unable to draw sufficient air to achieve ideal combustion.
20.2.6.2 Accident Experience
In most onshore and offshore fires, the main effects have been due to heat, but in a few events
the effect of smoke has been significant, and these few events have resulted in many fatalities.
The most important was Piper Alpha. Following an explosion, an oil pool fire generated a
large plume of smoke which engulfed the accommodation. Smoke inhalation caused at least
109 of the 167 fatalities.
Prior to Piper Alpha, there had been very little study of smoke in hydrocarbon fires. Since
then several experimental studies of smoke generation have been carried out, most with oil
pools less than 2 m diameter.
20.2.6.3 Source Term
For most hydrocarbon fuels, the stoichiometric ratio is 15 kg air per kg of fuel. Thus, in well-
ventilated fires with sufficient air for complete combustion, the smoke production rate is 16
times the fuel burning rate.
The temperature of the generated smoke may be up to 1200ºC, although it may also be much
less. Worst-case conditions may in fact be when the temperature is lower, causing the plume
to rise less. Theoretical combustion calculations for fires inside modules have indicated smoke
outlet temperatures of 400-700ºC (SINTEF 1991). Other data suggests temperatures of
1000ºC for smoke from well-ventilated fires and 600ºC for under-ventilated fires (DNVR
1994).
20.2.6.4 Smoke Composition
Combustion Gases
Combustion gases from burning hydrocarbons consist mainly of a mixture of nitrogen, carbon
dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapour. Because of the high proportion of
nitrogen in the air, hot nitrogen tends to dominate in the combustion products.
The concentration of toxic gases in the smoke is important because of their potential impact
on personnel. For modelling purposes, it is necessary to know the initial concentration close
to the fire. The dilution in the smoke plume can then be predicted theoretically, to determine
the concentration at any point downwind.
The proportion of toxic gases in the smoke depends on the chemical structure of the burning
materials and the degree of ventilation to the fire. The differences between different
hydrocarbons are quite small, and ventilation has the main effect. In general, reduced
ventilation (e.g. for a fire inside a compartment) greatly increases the ratio of CO to CO2 in the
combustion gases. Typical gas concentrations close to the fire are given in Table 20.1 (Bonn
1993). In each case the oxygen concentration is zero.
Table 20.1 Initial Gas Concentrations In Smoke
Gas Concentrations In Smoke (Vol%)

Well Ventilated Fire Under Ventilated Fire
Gas Fire Liquid Fire Gas Fire Liquid Fire
CO 0.04 0.08 3.0 3.1
CO2 10.9 11.8 8.2 9.2
The two ventilation regimes are defined empirically as set out in Section 20.2.6.1, with linear
interpolation in the intermediate region.
In principle, the gas composition can be calculated from theoretical combustion equations for
hydrocarbons. In practice, there are too many different products to solve the equations
without input from experimental measurements. This approach appears to be less accurate
than using experimental measurements directly (DNVR 1994).
Empirical correlations giving the concentration of CO, CO2 and O2 as functions of the air/fuel
ratio are given by SINTEF (1991). However, in most QRA studies, the air flow to the fire is
unknown.
Soot
The solid carbon particles resulting from a hydrocarbon fire, which are entrained in the
combustion gases, are described here as soot. Soot is important because of its impact on
visibility.
The proportion of soot in the smoke depends on the fuel type and the degree of ventilation to
the fire. Soot yields are measured in terms of kg soot produced per kg fuel burned.
Traditional building materials and furniture have soot yields in the range 0.01 - 0.02.
Hydrocarbon fuels have much higher soot yields.
Soot yields from hydrocarbon fuels have been reported as follows (SINTEF 1991):
• In under-ventilated fires, soot yield 0.07 to 0.1 kg/kg fuel for all liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
The value of 0.1 is appropriate for offshore QRA.
• In well-ventilated fires, soot yield was still 0.07 to 0.1 kg/kg fuel for heavy fuels (boiling
point 140 - 165ºC), but only 0.02 for lighter fuels (boiling point 62 – 82ºC).
Mass fractions of soot in the smoke may be estimated from these:
fm = Y/16
where: fm = mass fraction of soot in smoke (kg/kg)
Y = yield of soot (kg/kg fuel)
For smoke yields in the range 0.02 to 0.1, this gives mass fractions in the range 1.3 x 10-3 to
6.3 × 10-3 kg soot per kg smoke.
Overall Smoke Composition
The smoke consists of an aerosol of solid soot particles entrained in the hot combustion gases.
The relative proportions in smoke from 1kg of heavy oil are illustrated in Figure 20.6.
The density of the smoke is approximately that of the combustion gases. Assuming they are
an ideal gas with the same density as air, the density of the hot smoke is:
Ta
ρsmoke = ρa
Tsmoke
where: ρsmoke = smoke density (kg/m3) at actual temperature

ρa = air density at ambient temperature, 1.19 kg/m3
Tsmoke = smoke temperature (K)
Ta = ambient temperature, 293 K
Assuming a smoke temperature of 600ºC (873 K), the smoke density is 0.4 kg/m3.
The density of soot is assumed to be 2250 kg/m3 as for solid carbon. The mass density of soot
in the smoke is then:
m = fm ρsmoke
or:
m = ρsmoke . Y/16
For smoke yields in the range 0.02 to 0.1, this gives densities of soot in the smoke in the range
5 × 10-4 to 2.5 × 10-3 kg/m3. An alternative source (Wighus et al. 1992) gives an average
value of 1.1 × 10-3 kg/m3.
Figure 20.6 Smoke Production
AIR FUEL
M =15kg M =1kg
T =293K T =293K
ρ =1.19kg/m3 ρ =800kg/m3
V =12.6m3 V =0.001m3
SMOKE
M =16kg
T =873K
ρ =0.4kg/m3
V =40m3
COMBUSTION GAS SOOT
M =15.9kg M =0.1kg
T =873K T =973K
ρ =0.4kg/m3 ρ =2250kg/m3
V =40m3 V =4x10-5m3
The volume concentration of soot in the smoke is:
ρsmoke
fv = fm
ρsoot
For smoke yields in the range 0.02 to 0.1, this gives volume concentrations of soot in the
smoke in the range 0.2 to 1.1 ppm.
20.3 SIMPLE DISCHARGE MODELS
20.3.1 Gas Releases

20.3.1.1 Initial Gas Release Rate
The initial release rate for a leak of gas from high pressure equipment is given by:
Qo = CD A Po Z
where: Qo = initial release rate (kg/s)

CD = discharge coefficient, typically 0.85 for gas
A = hole area (m2)
Po = initial pressure of gas (N/m2)
Z = square root term, as follows:
γ +1
M γ  2  γ -1
Z =  
RTo  γ +1
where: M = molecular weight of gas (typically 20 g/mol)
γ = ratio of specific heats (1.306 for methane)
R = universal gas constant = 8314 J/kg mol K
To = initial temperature of gas (K)
The above applies to choked flow with pressure above the critical value given by:
γ -1
 2  γ
Pc = Pa  
 γ +1
where: Pc = critical pressure, (N/m2)
Pa = atmospheric pressure, 105 N/m2
For sub-critical flow, the above equation slightly under-estimates the release rate. More
accurate equations are given in programs such as PHAST. In offshore QRA, the difference is
usually insignificant.
For methane, a simple approximation to the above model is obtained by:
Qo = D(mm)2 P(bar) x 10-4
Example release rate results are given in Table 20.1 and Figure 20.7, calculated for methane at
an initial temperature of 23ºC.
Table 20.1 Release Rates For Methane
Initial Release Rate (kg/s) for Hole Diameters (mm)

Pressure
(barg) 3 mm 10 mm 25 mm 100 mm 300 mm 700 mm
110 0.140 1.55 9.7 155 1400 7600
70 0.082 0.91 5.7 91 820 4500
38 0.043 0.48 3.0 48 430 2300

7 0.0084 0.093 0.58 9.3 84 460
0.7 0.00145 0.016 0.10 1.6 15 79
20.3.1.2 Variation of Gas Release Rate with Time
Once the leaking section has been isolated, its pressure and hence the release rate will begin to
reduce. For release rates which are large compared to the available inventory, the release
duration may be very short after this point.
Constant Release Rate
The simplest possible approach is to assume that the release continues at the initial discharge
rate until the inventory is exhausted. The resulting duration is:
TR = mG / Qo
where: TR = release duration (sec)
Qo = initial release rate (kg/s)
mG = total mass of gas (kg)
The mass of gas can be expressed in terms of the volume and pressure as follows:
mG = Vo Po M / RTo
where the terms are as defined above and Vo = initial volume of gas (m3)
This simple approach over-estimates the release rate and hence under-estimates the duration.
Nevertheless, if there is a fast and reliable blow-down system, it gives a reasonable
conservative approximation to the true discharge profile up to this point, especially for small
leaks. This is adequate for a QRA where escalation is unlikely.
Figure 20.7 Release Rates for Methane
10000
1000 Pressure
(barg)
100
Release Rate (kg/s)
110
10 70
38
1 7
0.7
0.1
0.01
0.001
1 10 100 1000
Hole Diameter (mm)
Exponential Release Rate
An estimate of the reduction in release rate is given by:
- Q 
Q = Qo exp  o t 
 mG 
Thus, the release rate declines exponentially at a rate which is proportional to the initial rate
Qo (and hence to the initial pressure Po and hole area A) and inversely proportional to the mass
of gas mG in the equipment.
This approach is in general suitable for modelling the discharge from process equipment.
Release Rate from Pipelines
For a pipeline or riser with a large leak, the release rate decreases dramatically as the pressure
falls in the line. Further reduction in the release rate may be achieved by activation of sub-sea
isolation valves (SSIVs) or emergency shutdown valves on onshore pipelines. These effects
can be modelled using the TDGAS model.
TDGAS models the pressure drop along the pipeline due to the discharge, and its effect on the
release rate. Compared to the exponential release rate theory (which assumes that pressure is
uniform throughout the volume), TDGAS tends to produce more rapid reductions in release
rate, and hence longer release durations. These agree extremely well with experimental
measurements (Weiss et al. 1988). For small releases, the discharge is very similar to the
exponential release rate theory.
Full-bore Rupture
At the start of the release, TDGAS assumes that the hole opens instantaneously to a final
steady size. For the full-bore hole, this results in an unrealistically high release rate which
decays too rapidly to model. In reality, a full-bore hole would probably develop from a smaller
hole, and during this time the release rate would increase towards the predicted value.
At a time t, the depressurisation front is a distance x from the pipe-break. The pressure is
assumed to rise linearly over the distance x, from atmospheric pressure at the pipe-break, to
the full, initial pressure P1 at the front. This assumption of linear pressure rise allows the
frictional effects to be expressed in a simple form. The discharge rate equation is the one given
in Section 20.3.1.1, but a value of Cd is used which expresses the frictional losses along the
length of the pipe. Cd is given by:
1
Cd =
4fx
1 +
D
where: Cd = discharge coefficient

f = friction factor, assumed to be constant
x = distance of depressurisation front from pipe break (m)
D = pipe diameter (m)
The speed with which the depressurisation front moves along the pipeline is calculated by
considering the rate at which material is removed from the pipeline. This gives the following
relationship for x as a function of t:
D   2.617x 10 7 Zft  
2/3
x =  +1 - 1
4f   MD 
γ +1
Mγ  2  γ -1
where Z = γ 
RT  +1 
where: M = molecular weight of gas (kg/kg.mol)

γ = ratio of specific heat capacities: Cp/Cv
R = universal gas constant (J/kg.mol)
T = initial temperature of the gas (K)
Substituting this in the expression for release rate (from Section 20.3.1.1) gives:
AP1 Z
W = 1/ 3
 2.617x 10 7 Zft 
1+ 
MD
where: W = release rate (kg/s)
This model shows a dramatic reduction in discharge rate over the first few seconds of a
release, during which time the rate can fall to about 20% of the initial rate.
Small Hole Sizes
For any pipeline release that is less than full bore, the depressurisation front does not enter the
pipeline, but stays at the pipe-break as the release rate does not exceed the rate at which fluid
can be replenished in the system without significant pressure loss. The release rate drops
because the pressure drops as material is released from the pipeline.
The discharge behaviour is modelled in two stages. First, the rate of the drop in release rate is
calculated assuming that the pipeline is a pressure vessel with uniform pressure and no pipeline
friction effects. This is a reasonable assumption provided the pressure drop along the pipeline
for the calculated flow rate is much less than the pressure drop through the point of leakage;
this should be correct for the smallest hole sizes but this assumption may give conservative
results for larger holes.
The release rate is given by:
RT
W = C d AP1 Z e-C d AZ MV
where: V = Total volume of the pipeline (m3)
All other terms are as described previously.
Next, a correction factor is applied to the results of this volume method; the correction factor
introduces friction effects and slows the rate of decay.
Model Verification
The TDGAS model for full bore releases compares well with other models for full bore gas
discharge. Other models noted are: Fanneløp and Rhyming (1982), which assumes that the
depressurisation front moves at the local speed of sound; Bell (1978), which does not
explicitly consider a depressurisation front, but instead uses two exponentials; and a simple,
computerised, iterative model, which takes a similar approach to the movement of the front as
in the TDGAS model, but allows a more complex pressure profile to be considered.
The results from the four models in modelling a methane release are shown in Figure 20.8. The
TDGAS model gives results that are in the middle of the range for the initial few seconds of
the release when the discharge rate is very high, but tends to be conservative for the later
stages of the release.
Figure 20.8 Comparison of Discharge Rate Models
Title: BGI Graphics

Creator: BGI by Borland International
CreationDate:
20.3.2 Liquid and Two-Phase Releases

20.3.2.1 Initial Liquid Release Rate
The initial release rate for a liquid leak depends mainly on the size of the hole and the pressure
inside the equipment. Since liquid has relatively high density, the release rate through a given
hole size is much higher than for a gas release.
The initial release rate for a leak of liquid is given from the Bernoulli equation for
incompressible flow as:
Q o = CD A 2 ρ L [ ( P o - P a ) + ρ L g h ]
where: Qo = initial release rate (kg/s)
CD = discharge coefficient, typically 0.61 for liquid
A = hole area (m2)
ρL = liquid density (kg/m3)
Po = initial pressure of liquid (N/m2)
Pa = atmospheric pressure, 105 N/m2
g = acceleration due to gravity (m/s2)
h = height of liquid surface above hole (m)
In pressurised equipment the liquid head h is generally negligible. For subsea releases, the
liquid head is balanced by the head of sea water, and remains negligible in most cases.
20.3.2.2 Flash Fraction in Hydrocarbon Liquids
Liquid hydrocarbons are usually mixtures of liquids and gases under pressure. The reduction in
pressure and release rate of a liquid leak depends on the availability of gas to fill the volume
vacated by the leaking liquid. This is best measured by the flash fraction of the hydrocarbon
mixture, defined as:
mg
xg =
mg + m L
where: xg = flash fraction
mg = mass of component which is gaseous at atmospheric pressure
mL = mass of component which is liquid at atmospheric pressure
For a hydrocarbon mixture, determining the flash fraction is a complex calculation, performed
by software such as PROCESS.
Flash fraction may be expressed as a gas-oil ratio:
GOR = Vg / VL
where: Vg = volume of gaseous component

VL = volume of liquid component
These can be related by:

-1
 ρL 
xg = 1+ 
 ρ g GOR 
where: ρg = density of gaseous component
ρL = density of liquid component
Standard conditions for measurement of volume and density are atmospheric pressure (1.013
× 105 N/m2) and 15oC.
A simple estimate of the flash fraction can be made from the hydrocarbon composition by
assuming that the components C1 to C4 all flash, while the remainder all remain liquid. Then
the flash fraction is:
1 4
xg = ∑ Mi pi / 100
M i=1
where: M = molecular weight of mixture
Mi = molecular weight of Ci component
pi = molar percentage of Ci component in mixture
20.3.2.3 Discharge of Unstabilised Liquids
Unstabilised liquids (such as "live" crude) have a significant gas content. As the liquid is
released, the dissolved gas flashes, maintaining the pressure inside the equipment, and
providing the main driving force for the discharge. Thus, the release rate remains relatively
constant at first, especially if the flash fraction is high or the leak is small. Isolation of the
leaking section has relatively little effect, unless the leak is very large.
Eventually, the release rate falls as the gas inventory is reduced, as the liquid level falls below
the hole, or as blow-down is initiated. Accurate modelling of this process is difficult. A time-
stepping model is outlined by Technica (1990a). Simpler models are given below.
Constant Release Rate
The simplest possible approach is to assume that the release continues at the initial discharge
rate until the inventory is exhausted. The resulting duration is:
TR = mt / Qo

mt = total mass of liquid including dissolved gas (kg)
This is a good approximation to the true discharge profile up to the point where blow-down is
initiated, especially for small leaks.
Exponential Release Rate
An estimate of the reduction in release rate may be obtained by assuming that the release rate
is driven by the flashing gas, which entrains the oil as it emerges from the hole. The proportion
of gas in the emerging liquid is assumed equal to the flash fraction. The release is assumed to
stop when all the gas has been discharged. The decline in release rate can then be deduced by
analogy with Section 20.3.1.2 as:
 -x g Q o 
Q = Q o exp  t
 m g 
where: Q = instantaneous release rate (kg/s)

xg = flash fraction
mg = mass of gaseous component
This may be simplified to:
- Q 
Q = Qo exp  o t
 mt 
Release Rate from Pipelines
For a pipeline or riser containing unstabilised liquid, the release rate decays in a complex
manner as the pipeline depressurises. The release can be modelled approximately using
TDGAS as follows (Technica 1990b):
1. Calculate the flash fraction as in Section 20.3.2.2.
2. Calculate the average molecular weight of the flashed gas.
3. Find the saturated vapour pressure for the gas at the pipeline temperature (tabulated in data
books). Use the highest component, i.e. C4.
4. Calculate the gas volume at this pressure, as in Section 20.3.1.2.
5. Estimate a length of pipeline required to contain this volume using the same diameter as the
actual pipe.
6. Use TDGAS to model the discharge for this gas, as in Section 20.3.1.2.
7. Assume the gas entrains 4 x its own mass of oil, so that the total hydrocarbon release rate is
5 × the TDGAS values.
For flash fractions above 20% (by mass) the release can be modelled in TDGAS directly using
the overall molecular weight of the mixture.
20.3.2.4 Discharge of Stabilised Liquids
Stabilised liquids (such as "dead" crude) have negligible gas content - typically a flash fraction
less than 2%.
Until the release is isolated, the main driving force for the leak is provided by the pump. In a
small leak, the release rate remains relatively constant.
In a large unisolated leak, the release rate may drop quickly to the pumping rate and stabilise
there. The pump may overspeed and increase the release rate, or it may trip and stop the flow
from upstream. Back-flow from the down-stream side may add to the release, or it may be
prevented by non-return valves. Overall, in the absence of better data, it is best to assume that
the release is constant at the initial value, but not exceeding the pumping rate.
Once the release is isolated, the pressure in the line drops rapidly. The mass available for
release is the mass of liquid in the isolated section above the hole. The release rate may be
assumed to drop linearly to zero, giving a release duration:
TR = 2mL / Qo

mL = mass of liquid above hole (kg)
Then, the release rate is:
 t 
Q = Qo 1 - for 0 < t < T R
 T R 
20.3.2.5 Two-Phase Releases
Two-phase (or flashing) releases are when gas dissolved in the liquid flashes inside the orifice
or pipe, choking the flow. This produces a release rate between that of liquid and gas releases.
In offshore QRA, condensate releases are of this type. Although live crude may also contain
gas which flashes as it is released, the liquid discharge model is still appropriate because the
flashing normally occurs outside the orifice.
Two-phase release models are given in DNV's program PHAST for single materials and
(representated in a simplified manner) mixtures, and in the SIPM program HEM for
hydrocarbon mixtures.
20.3.3 Isolation and Blowdown of Hydrocarbon Leaks

20.3.3.1 Isolation of Hydrocarbon Leaks
Isolation of hydrocarbon leaks is normally by some form of emergency shut-down (ESD). This
activates emergency shut-down valves (ESDVs) which divide the process system into small
sections and isolate each riser. In addition, the pipelines may be fitted emergency shutdown
valves and/or sub-sea isolation valves (SSIVs). Producing wells are normally isolated by
various wellhead valves and sub-surface safety valves (SSSVs). Wells being drilled may be
isolated by the blowout preventer (BOP).
Modelling of ESD in process equipment is achieved by assuming that the release rate remains
constant at its initial value until ESD occurs, due to the upstream process system maintaining
the pressure. ESD is then assumed to occur instantaneously, i.e. neglecting the valve closure
time. After this, the discharge is modelled as a declining release rate as in Section 20.3.1.2 or
20.3.2.3.
20.3.3.2 Blowdown of Hydrocarbon Leaks
Blowdown is the emergency depressurisation of process systems in the event of an alarm. The
system is depressurised by venting to the flare or to a cold vent. The system is usually
designed to depressurise to 7 barg in 15 minutes in accordance with the recommendations of
API RP 521.
An analytical expression for the size of blowdown valve necessary to achieve the API
recommended performance is difficult to obtain. However, the equations in Sections 20.3.1.1
and 20.3.1.2 may be used iteratively to obtain it. Once the blowdown valve area is known, the
total release rate through blowdown valve and leak can be calculated. The leak rate is then
given by:
 AL 
QL =   QT
 AL + AB 
where: AL = leak area

AB = blowdown valve area
QT = total flow rate through leak and blow-down valve
The overall release rate function through the leak is then (Figure 20.9):
Without isolation:
Q = Qo for O < t ≤ t I
With isolation:
- Q 
Q = Qo exp  o (t- t I ) for t I < t ≤ t B
 mo 
With blowdown:
- Q 
Q = Q L exp  T (t- t B) for t B < t
 mB 
where: Qo = CD AL Po Z for gas

Qo = CD AL √(2 ρL (Po-Pa)) for unstabilised oil
QT = CD (AL+AB) PB Z for gas
QT = CD (AL+AB) √(2 ρL (PB-Pa)) for unstabilised oil
QL = QT AL / (AL+AB) for gas
and where:
- Q 
P B = P o exp  o (t B - t I )
 mo 
tB
mB = mo - ∫
t =t I
Q dt
where: CD = discharge coefficient

Z = square root term (see Section 20.3.1.1) (for gas)
ρL = density (for liquid) (kg/m3)
AL = leak area (m2)
AB = blowdown valve area (m2)
Po = initial system pressure (N/m2)
PB = pressure when blowdown starts (N/m2)
Pa = ambient pressure (N/m2)
mo = initial mass (kg)
mB = mass remaining when blowdown starts (kg)
tI = time isolation occurs (sec)
tB = time blowdown occurs (sec)
Qo = initial flow rate through leak (kg/s)
QT = total flow rate through leak and blowdown valve when blowdown starts (kg/s)
QL = flow rate through leak when blowdown starts (kg/s)
Figure 20.9 Blowdown Of Hydrocarbon Leaks
Blowdown
QT
Isolation
QO
RELEASE RATE
QB
Total Flow
Leak Flow
tI tB
TIME
20.4 REFERENCES
Bell (1978), Isolpleth Calculations for Ruptures in Sour Gas Pipelines, Energy Processing,
July-August 1978.
Bragg, S.L. (1960), Effect of Compressibility on the Discharge Coefficient of Orifices and
Convergent Nozzles, J. Mech. Eng. Sci., 2, pp.35-44.
Brown, R. and York, J.L. (1961), Sprays Formed by Flashing Liquid Jets, AIChE Journal, 8,
pp.149-153.
Fanneløp and Rhyming (1982), Massive Releases of Gas from Long Pipelines, Journal of
Energy, Vol. 6, No. 2, March-April 1982.
Maurer, B., Schneider, H., Hess, K., and Leuckel, W. (1977) Modelling of Vapour Cloud
Dispersion and Deflagration after Bursting of Tanks filled with Liquefied Gas, Intl. Loss
Prevention Symposium, Heidelberg.
Perry, R.H. and Chilton, C.H. (1973), Chemical Engineers’ Handbook, 5th Edition, McGraw-
Hill.
Pettitt, G.N., Hardy, N.R., Nolan, P.F., Jones, C.D. (1992), Characterization of Aerosols
Formed by the Flashing Process Following Catastrophic Vessel Failure, National Heat
Transfer Conference, San Diego, AIChE Symp. Series 288, 88, pp.325-335.
Technica (1990a), Brent C Operations Risk Assessment, Confidential Report for Shell Expro,
C2222A.
Technica (1990b), RISER - Riser Safety Evaluation Routine, C2036, SIPM Report EP90-
1045.
Weiss, M.H., Botros, K.K. and Jungowski, W.M. (1988), Simple Method Predicts Gas-Line
Blowdown Times, Oil and Gas Journal.

Module20 - Consequence Analysis

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Risk ID & Assessment Training Course DNV Consulting

Module 20: Consequence Analysis (1) – Introduction & Discharge Modelling

CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS (1)

20. CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS (1) – INTRODUCTION & DISCHARGE

20.2 INITIAL CONDITIONS AND DISCHARGE MODELLING ................................3

20.3 SIMPLE DISCHARGE MODELS .......................................................................17

20. CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS (1) – INTRODUCTION & DISCHARGE

Consequence modelling covers the following:

• Modelling of discharge rates.

• Modelling of the smoke produced by burning liquids.

• Modelling of explosion overpressures.

Figure 20.1 Consequence Modelling Flow

Flammable and Toxic Effect Models

20.2 INITIAL CONDITIONS AND DISCHARGE MODELLING

20.2.1 Initial Conditions for Scenarios

Figure 20.2 Instantaneous Release (Catastrophic Rupture)

Figure 20.3 Continuous Orifice Leak

Figure 20.4 Pipe Release (Rupture)

20.2.2 Discharge Parameters

Figure 20.5 Discharge Zone

Fluid Pressure =Atmospheric Pressure

Mass Flow Rate

Droplet Trajectory and Size

A characteristic droplet size is calculated in order to be able to predict droplet trajectories.

20.2.3 Continuous Discharges

Discharge through an Orifice

Discharge through a Pipe

Using an iterative calculation to be carried out is a time-consuming process so instead a

20.2.4 Instantaneous Releases

An instantaneous release is normally assumed to form a homogeneous mass, expanding rapidly

In the adiabatic expansion to atmospheric pressure a certain amount of enthalpy is released. In

20.2.5 Release in Buildings

20.2.6 Smoke Generation

• Under-ventilated (or ventilation-controlled) fires, which occur inside buildings or modules.

20.2.6.2 Accident Experience

20.2.6.3 Source Term

20.2.6.4 Smoke Composition

Table 20.1 Initial Gas Concentrations In Smoke

Gas Concentrations In Smoke (Vol%)

Mass fractions of soot in the smoke may be estimated from these:

where: fm = mass fraction of soot in smoke (kg/kg)

Y = yield of soot (kg/kg fuel)

Overall Smoke Composition

where: ρsmoke = smoke density (kg/m3) at actual temperature

Figure 20.6 Smoke Production

COMBUSTION GAS SOOT

The volume concentration of soot in the smoke is:

20.3 SIMPLE DISCHARGE MODELS

20.3.1 Gas Releases

where: Qo = initial release rate (kg/s)

For methane, a simple approximation to the above model is obtained by:

Qo = D(mm)2 P(bar) x 10-4

Table 20.1 Release Rates For Methane

Initial Release Rate (kg/s) for Hole Diameters (mm)

38 0.043 0.48 3.0 48 430 2300

20.3.1.2 Variation of Gas Release Rate with Time

Constant Release Rate

Figure 20.7 Release Rates for Methane

Exponential Release Rate

An estimate of the reduction in release rate is given by:

Release Rate from Pipelines

where: Cd = discharge coefficient