1 Answer:

To find the probability that someone with periodontal disease will have a bad mood, we can
use Bayes' theorem. Let's denote the following events:
We are given the following probabilities:

P(A) = Probability of having periodontal disease = 0.29

P(B) = Probability of having a bad mood = 0.10
P(B') = Probability of not having a bad mood = 1 - P(B) = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90
The posterior probabilities are,
P(D/H) 0.85
P(D/Hc)=0.29

We have to find the probability that he or she will have a heart attack if the person has
periodontal disease.
That is, we have to find P(H)
Substituting the prior and likelihood (posterior) probabilities into the Bayes's Law formula,
then it yields,
P(D/H) = [P(D/H)*P(H)]/[P(D/H) *P(H) + P(D/He)* P(He)]
= [(0.85)*(0.10)]/[(0.85)* (0.10)+(0.29) *(0.90)]
-0.085/0.346
= 0.246
Therefore, the probability that he or she will have heart attack if the person has the
periodontal disease is 0.246.

Using Bayes' theorem, the formula is:

P(B|A) = (P(A|B) * P(B)) / P(A)

We know P(A|B) is the probability of having periodontal disease given that the person has a
bad mood. However, this information is not given directly in the question.
Without this conditional probability, we cannot calculate P(B|A) accurately. We would need
additional information about the relationship between bad moods and periodontal disease to
proceed with the calculation.

0.10*0.85=0.00
Tree diagram: PERIODONTAL DISEASE-0.05
BAD MOOD-0.10
HEALTHY-0.15
0.10*0.15=0.015

0.90*0.29=0.261
PERIODONTAL DISEASE-0.29
HEALTHY- 0.90
HEALTHY-0.71
0.90*0.71=0.639

2 Answer:
Regression model
Regression
Statistics
0.1105902
Multiple R 4
R Square 0.0122302

Adjusted R 0.0775670
Square 5
63.028259
Standard Error 2
Observations 13
 Significanc
Particular D e
s f SS MS F F
Regressio 541.054712 541.0547 0.136197 0.71909559
n 1 9 1 9 2
43698.1760 3972.561
Residual 1 6 5
44239.2307
Total 2 7

Lowe Upper
Particular Coefficient Standard T- P- r Upper Lower
s s Error Stat value 95% 95% 95% 95%
9.03 276.10 453.93. 453.9
Intercept 365.021 40.397 6 9.036 0 8 4 3
0.36 28.29
2 4.063 11.01 9 0.369 0.716 -20.17 28.297 7

Regression Line
No of No, of post per X-Mean (X - Mean of Y - Mean ( x - Mean of X
followers (Y) day (x) of X X)^2 of Y (Y- Mean of Y )
439 2 -12143 1.4745 56.2143 -682610.2449
340 1 -2.2143 4.9031 -42.7857 94.74037551
315 4 0.7857 0.6173 -67.7857 -53.25922449
444 5 1.7857 3.1888 61.2143 109.3103755
377 2 -1.2143 1.4745 -5.7857 7.02557551
456 5 1.7857 3.1888 73.2143 130.7387755
495 2 -1.2143 1.4745 112.2143 -136.2618245
304 2 -1.2143 1.4745 -78.7857 95.66947551
401 5 1.7857 3.1888 18.2143 32.52527551
305 5 1.7857 3.1888 -77.7857 -138.9019245
338 4 0.7857 0.6173 -44.7857 -35.18812449
348 2 -1.2143 1.4745 -34.7857 42.24027551
402 1 -2.2143 4.9031 19.2143 -42.54622449
395 5 1.7857 3.1888 12.2143 21.81107551
5359 45 34.3573 59.6429

N=14
Sum of X=45
Sum of Y=5359
Mean X=XN=45/14 = 3.2143
Mean Y=Y/N = 5359/14 = 382.7857
Sum of squares (SSX) = 34.3571
Sum of products (SP) = 59.6429
Regression Equation == bX+ a
b= SP/SSX = 59.64/34.36 = 1.73597
a = MY - bMX = 382.79 - (1.74*3.21)=377.20582
y = 1.73597X+377.20582
Conclusion: The regression method is highly valuable in statistics, as it enables the validation
of business decisions by testing the hypothesis that a specific action will enhance the
profitability of a division. This validation is accomplished by examining the relationship
between dependent and independent variables through regression analysis. Consequently, the
equation derived from regression analysis holds significant significance in the realm of
finance. Moreover, regression is widely employed for forecasting purposes.

3 a) Answer:
Mean (μ) = 120 days
Standard Deviation (σ) = 20 days
Number of lights blubs (n) =1000
z = (x - μ) / σ = ( x-120)/20
In order to ensure that no more than 10% of the bulbs expire before replacement, we must
determine the interval between replacements. Given that the lifespan distribution of the bulbs
follows a normal distribution, we can consult the standard normal distribution table to obtain
the corresponding z-value for the specified percentage. Subsequently, we can utilize the
formula for the standardized normal distribution to calculate the corresponding value of x
(the lifespan of the bulbs) for the given z-value.
We rearrange the formula to solve for x (replacement time):
x=z*σ+μ

Substituting the values, we have:

x = -1.28 * 20 + 120
x = -25.6 + 120
x = 94.4
The calculated replacement time is 94.4 days. This means that if the light bulbs are replaced
every 94.4 days, no more than 10% of the bulbs will expire before replacement.
Therefore, the interval that should be allowed between replacements to meet the given
condition is approximately 94.4 days.
3 b) Answer:

For Males:
Mid d = (x-
Age Group f^d
Males Value A) h
0-4 9834738 2 -8 -78677904
5-9 10959506 7 -7 -76716542
10-14 12425108 12 -6 -74550648
15-19 12683733 17 -5 -63418665
20-24 13197283 22 -4 -52789132
25-29 13045214 27 -3 -39135642
30-34 12134009 32 -2 -24268018
35-39 12060030 37 -1 -12060030
40-44 10900143 A=42 0 0
45-49 9704026 47 1 9704026
50-54 7940152 52 2 15880304
55-59 6161754 57 3 18485262
60-64 5401736 62 4 21606944
65-69 3687082 67 5 18435410
70-74 2662421 72 6 15974526
75-79 1341572 77 7 9391004
80-85 1461296 82.5 8.1 11836497.6
-
Total
145599803 300302607.4

Mean of average age of Male migrants = A + fd* h

N
=42+(-300302607.4) * 5
145599803
=42+-(2.0625)* 5
= 42-10.3126
= 31.6874

For Females:
Mid d = (x-
Age Group f^d
Males Value A) h
0-4 9127975 2 -8 -73023800
5-9 9958059 7 -7 -69706413
 10-14 11451227 12 -6 -68707362
15-19 16518666 17 -5 -82593330
20-24 33658466 22 -4 -134633864
25-29 37522017 27 -3 -112566051
30-34 34286096 32 -2 -68572192
35-39 33054887 37 -1 -33054887
40-44 27261236 A=42 0 0
45-49 23447716 47 1 23447716
50-54 17842986 52 2 35685972
55-59 15192910 57 3 45578730
60-64 14347372 62 4 57389488
65-69 10141196 67 5 50705980
70-74 7033728 72 6 42202368
75-79 3493001 77 7 24451007
80-85 4253695 82.5 8.1 34454929.5
-
Total
308591233 328941708.5

Mean of average age of Male migrants = A + fd* h

N
=42+(-328941708.5) * 5
308591233
= 42(-1.0659)* 5
=42-5.3297
=36.6703
The mean, also referred to as the arithmetic mean, is a mathematical and statistical measure
that condenses a complete dataset into a single value, representing the central point or typical
value of the data. Based on the calculations performed earlier, we can determine that the
mean average age of male migrants is 34 years, while the mean average age of female
migrants is 37 years.