Professional Documents
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10
Sheets Forcasting Methods
1 Time series patterns TIME SERIES PATTERNS'!A2
1.1 Level or horizon pattern
1.2 Trend pattern TREND PATTERN'!A1
1.3 Cycle pattern CYCLE PATTERN'!A1
2 Naive forecasting method NAIVE FORECAST'!A1
3 Simple mean method SIMPLE AVERAGE'!A1
4 Simple moving average method SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE'!A1
5 Exponential smoothing method method EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING'!A1
6 Causal method
6.1 Linear regression method LINEAR REGRESSION'!A1
VERAGE'!A1
OOTHING'!A1
LEVEL OR HORIZON PATTERN
Date Quantity
1-Jan-23 2
7-Jan-23 3
14-Jan-23 2
21-Jan-23 5
28-Jan-23 2 Quantity
4-Feb-23 7 10
11-Feb-23 4 9
18-Feb-23 6 8
25-Feb-23 3 7
4-Mar-23 3 6
11-Mar-23 5 5
18-Mar-23 3
4
25-Mar-23 6
3
1-Apr-23 2
2
7-Apr 2
1
14-Apr-23 3
21-Apr-23 4 0
5-Dec-22 24-Jan-23 15-Mar-23 4-May-23 23-Jun-23 12-Aug-23 1-Oct-23 20-Nov
28-Apr-23 7
5-May-23 7
12-May-23 2
19-May-23 3
26-May-23 2
2-Jun-23 3
9-Jun-23 7
16-Jun-23 2
23-Jun-23 3
30-Jun-23 2
7-Jul-23 6
14-Jul-23 6
21-Jul-23 2
28-Jul-23 3
4-Aug-23 7
11-Aug-23 5
18-Aug-23 9
25-Aug-23 3
1-Sep-23 4.75778246306203
8-Sep-23 4.79843245247048
15-Sep-23 4.75839079289411
22-Sep-23 4.76051640864057
29-Sep-23 4.69395802316401
6-Oct-23 4.78832765738746
13-Oct-23 4.71329075531291
20-Oct-23 4.91854273590435
27-Oct-23 4.97633423712164
3-Nov-23 5.15655028702372
10-Nov-23 5.18094475072606
17-Nov-23 5.19781791313744
24-Nov-23 5.3261576947324
1-Dec-23 5.34783972063868
8-Dec-23 5.54019673264214
15-Dec-23 5.51794372612554
22-Dec-23 5.47589739748144
29-Dec-23 5.47274460187945
Back to INDEX INDEX!A1
uantity
ATTERN
CYCLE PATTEERN
Sales Cost
1-Sep-23 533
THIS IS THE NAÏVE FORCASTED
SALES OF WEEK 1 SEPTEMBER, 2023
NAÏVE FORECASTED QUANTITY NAÏVE FORECASTED COST YEARLY SALES
Jan 1990
2 220 Feb 984
3 512 Mar 1146
2 8 Apr 266
5 1342 May 1190
2 20 Jun 4314
7 34 Jul 140
4 6 Aug 1936
6 817 Sep
3 13
3 275
5 193
3 7 Next period forecast = Las
actual:
6 652
2 46 Ft+1= At
2 6
3 197
4 15
7 14
7 45
2 74
3 804
2 7
3 79
7 4750
2 18
3 109
2 2
6 77
6 13
2 12
3 20
7 974
5 339
9 78
3 580
THIS IS NAÏVE FORECASTED SALES THIS IS NAÏVE FORECASTED COST
OF WEEK FROM 1 SEP, 2023 OF WEEK 1SEP, 2023
FORECASTED SALES
Ft+1= At
SIMPLE AVERAGAE METHOD
Date Sales FORECASTED SALES
1-Jan-23 262
7-Jan-23 732 262
14-Jan-23 15 497
21-Jan-23 958 336.333333333333
28-Jan-23 23 491.75
4-Feb-23 49 398
11-Feb-23 8 339.833333333333
18-Feb-23 908 292.428571428571
25-Feb-23 19 369.375
4-Mar-23 408 330.444444444444
11-Mar-23 69 338.2
18-Mar-23 3 313.727272727273
25-Mar-23 666 287.833333333333
1-Apr-23 56 316.923076923077
7-Apr 9 298.285714285714
14-Apr-23 214 279
21-Apr-23 23 274.9375
28-Apr-23 20 260.117647058824
5-May-23 61 246.777777777778
12-May-23 72 237
19-May-23 1045 228.75
26-May-23 12 267.619047619048
2-Jun-23 91 256
9-Jun-23 3084 248.826086956522
16-Jun-23 10 366.958333333333
23-Jun-23 1125 352.68
30-Jun-23 4 382.384615384615
7-Jul-23 87 368.37037037037
14-Jul-23 7 358.321428571429
21-Jul-23 16 346.206896551724
28-Jul-23 30 335.2
4-Aug-23 1098 325.354838709677
11-Aug-23 191 349.5
18-Aug-23 114 344.69696969697
25-Aug-23 533 337.911764705882
1-Sep-23 343.485714285714
MPLE AVERAGAE METHOD
BACK TO INDEX
Chart Title
Sales Column C Column D Column E FORECASTED SALES
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
5-Dec-22 24-Jan-23 15-Mar-23 4-May-23 23-Jun-23 12-Aug-23
RECASTED SALES
12-Aug-23 1-Oct-23
Date Sales FORECASTED SALES(N=3) FORECASTED SALES (N=5)
1-Jan-23 262 Sales
7-Jan-23 732 Linea
14-Jan-23 15 3500
21-Jan-23 958 336.333333333333
28-Jan-23 23 568.333333333333 3000
4-Feb-23 49 332 398
2500
11-Feb-23 8 343.333333333333 355.4
18-Feb-23 908 26.6666666666667 210.6 2000
25-Feb-23 19 321.666666666667 389.2
4-Mar-23 408 311.666666666667 201.4 1500
11-Mar-23 69 445 278.4
1000
18-Mar-23 3 165.333333333333 282.4
25-Mar-23 666 160 281.4 500
1-Apr-23 56 246 233
0
7-Apr 9 241.666666666667 240.4 5-Dec-22 24-Jan-23
14-Apr-23 214 243.666666666667 160.6
21-Apr-23 23 93 189.6
28-Apr-23 20 82 193.6
5-May-23 61 85.6666666666667 64.4
12-May-23 72 34.6666666666667 65.4
19-May-23 1045 51 78
26-May-23 12 392.666666666667 244.2
2-Jun-23 91 376.333333333333 242
9-Jun-23 3084 382.666666666667 256.2
16-Jun-23 10 1062.33333333333 860.8
23-Jun-23 1125 1061.66666666667 848.4
30-Jun-23 4 1406.33333333333 864.4
7-Jul-23 87 379.666666666667 862.8
14-Jul-23 7 405.333333333333 862
21-Jul-23 16 32.6666666666667 246.6
28-Jul-23 30 36.6666666666667 247.8
4-Aug-23 1098 17.6666666666667 28.8
11-Aug-23 191 381.333333333333 247.6
18-Aug-23 114 439.666666666667 268.4
25-Aug-23 533 467.666666666667 289.8
1-Sep-23 279.333333333333 393.2
Sales FORECASTED SALES(N=3) BACK TO INDEX
Linear (FORECASTED SALES(N=3))
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
5-Dec-22 24-Jan-23 15-Mar-23 4-May-23 23-Jun-23 12-Aug-23 1-Oct-23
Date Sales FORECASTED SALES HERE ALPHA =0
1-Jan-23 262 262
7-Jan-23 732 262
14-Jan-23 15 403
21-Jan-23 958 286.6
28-Jan-23 23 488.02
4-Feb-23 49 348.514 3500
11-Feb-23 8 258.6598
3000
18-Feb-23 908 183.46186
25-Feb-23 19 400.823302 2500
4-Mar-23 408 286.2763114
11-Mar-23 69 322.79341798 2000
18-Mar-23 3 246.655392586
1500
25-Mar-23 666 173.5587748102
1-Apr-23 56 321.29114236714 1000
7-Apr 9 241.703799656998
14-Apr-23 214 171.892659759899 500
21-Apr-23 23 184.524861831929
28-Apr-23 20 136.06740328235 0
5-Dec-22 24-Jan-23 15-Mar-23 4-May-23 2
5-May-23 61 101.247182297645
12-May-23 72 89.1730276083516 Sales FO
Linear (FORECASTED SALES) Exp
19-May-23 1045 84.0211193258461
26-May-23 12 372.314783528092
2-Jun-23 91 264.220348469665
9-Jun-23 3084 212.254243928765
16-Jun-23 10 1073.77797075014
23-Jun-23 1125 754.644579525095
30-Jun-23 4 865.751205667566
7-Jul-23 87 607.225843967296
14-Jul-23 7 451.158090777108
21-Jul-23 16 317.910663543975
28-Jul-23 30 227.337464480783
4-Aug-23 1098 168.136225136548
11-Aug-23 191 447.095357595584
18-Aug-23 114 370.266750316908
25-Aug-23 533 293.386725221836
1-Sep-23 365.270707655285
HERE ALPHA =0.3
BACK TO INDEX
FORECASTED SALES
TED SALES) Exponential (FORECASTED SALES)
Date Sales Method1 Method2
1-Jan-23 262 275.99075 275.99
7-Jan-23 732 279.4394 279.44
14-Jan-23 15 283.46282 283.46
21-Jan-23 958 287.48625 287.49
28-Jan-23 23 291.50967 291.51
4-Feb-23 49 295.53309 295.53
11-Feb-23 8 299.55651 299.56
18-Feb-23 908 303.57993 303.58
25-Feb-23 19 307.60336 307.60
4-Mar-23 408 311.62678 311.63
11-Mar-23 69 315.6502 315.65
18-Mar-23 3 319.67362 319.67
25-Mar-23 666 323.69705 323.70 Sales
1-Apr-23 56 327.72047 327.72 3500
7-Apr 9 331.16912 331.17
14-Apr-23 214 335.19254 335.19 3000
21-Apr-23 23 339.21596 339.22 2500
28-Apr-23 20 343.23938 343.24
5-May-23 61 347.2628 347.26 2000
12-May-23 72 351.28623 351.29
1500
19-May-23 1045 355.30965 355.31
26-May-23 12 359.33307 359.33 1000
2-Jun-23 91 363.35649 363.36
500
9-Jun-23 3084 367.37992 367.38 f(x) = 0.574774598845522 x − 25546.90764808
16-Jun-23 10 371.40334 371.40 0
5-Dec-22 24-Jan-23 15-Mar-23 4-May-23 23-Jun
23-Jun-23 1125 375.42676 375.43
30-Jun-23 4 379.45018 379.45
7-Jul-23 87 383.4736 383.47
14-Jul-23 7 387.49703 387.50
21-Jul-23 16 391.52045 391.52
28-Jul-23 30 395.54387 395.54
4-Aug-23 1098 399.56729 399.57
11-Aug-23 191 403.59072 403.59
18-Aug-23 114 407.61414 407.61
25-Aug-23 533 411.63756 411.64
1-Sep-23 415.66098 415.66
y=mx+c
slope intercept
0.5747746 -25546.91
BACK TO INDEX
Sales
8845522 x − 25546.9076480829
ar-23 4-May-23 23-Jun-23 12-Aug-23 1-Oct-23