Bangladesh Economic and Financial Indicators, August 2021

Bangladesh: Selected Indicators

Both infections of and deaths due to COVID-19 had been The vaccination rollout has been slower than expected,
picking up since end-May. reflecting supply delays, with approximately 7.8 million
persons having received vaccinations thus far.
New confirmed cases of and deaths due to COVID-19 Number of registration and people who received
(May 21, 2020- Jul 27, 2021) vaccination 1/
Mar 2, 2021- Jul 27, 2021 (in Million)
Daily new confirmed cases Registration Vaccination
Daily new confirmed deaths (RHS) 15
20000 300
250 10
15000
200
10000 150 5
100
5000
50 0
0 0

3/2/2021
3/9/2021

4/6/2021

5/4/2021

6/1/2021
6/8/2021

7/6/2021
3/16/2021
3/23/2021
3/30/2021

4/13/2021
4/20/2021
4/27/2021

5/11/2021
5/18/2021
5/25/2021

6/15/2021
6/22/2021
6/29/2021

7/13/2021
7/20/2021
7/27/2021
5/21/2020
6/8/2020
6/26/2020
7/14/2020
8/1/2020
8/19/2020
9/6/2020
9/24/2020
10/12/2020
10/30/2020
11/17/2020
12/5/2020
12/23/2020
1/10/2021
1/28/2021
2/15/2021
3/5/2021
3/23/2021
4/10/2021
4/28/2021
5/16/2021
6/3/2021
6/21/2021
7/9/2021
7/27/2021 Mobility which increased in May, reflecting a pick-up of
Bangladesh continues to fall below the Asian average for
economic activity, has been declining since June.
vaccine doses administered (per 100 people).

Community mobility changes 3/

COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people
Feb 2020-Jul 2021
as on July 26, 2021 unless otherwise mentioned 2/
(percent change from baseline)
United Kingdom 123.6 Retail and recreation
China 108.8 Supermarket and pharmacy
United States 102.3 Parks
Europe 83.7
Public transport
Hong Kong 71.2
Workplaces
Cambodia 68.1
Japan 62.8
Residential
60
Malaysia 55.1
Asia 53.7
40
World 50.4 20
South Korea 45.5 0
Sri Lanka 41.6
India 32.0
-20
Indonesia 23.0 -40
Philippines 15.7 -60
Bangladesh 6.3
Africa 4.6
-80
Jun-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jun-21
Jul-20
Aug-20

Jul-21
May-20
Feb-20

Apr-20

Apr-21
May-21
Mar-20

Feb-21
Dec-20

Mar-21
Jan-21
Oct-20

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Migrant outflows to remittance-heavy countries dropped

Monthly remittance inflows, which trended up from end-
in the last two months reflecting the domestic lockdown
February 2021 to May 2021, declined in Jun 2021.
and international travel bans.
Wage earners' remittance inflows: country wise
Overseas employment: country-wise migrant outflows
Feb 2019- Jun 2021 (in Billion USD)
Jan 2019- May 2021 (in thousands)
KSA UAE Kuwait KSA UAE Kuwait
Oman Qatar Malaysia Oman Qatar Malaysia
Singapore Others Total
80 Singapore Others Total
3.0
60 2.5
2.0
40
1.5
20 1.0
0.5
0
0.0
Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-19

Jul-20
May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Oct-19

Oct-20
Feb-19

Aug-19

Feb-20

Aug-20

Feb-21
Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21
Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

1/ Vaccination data takes into account only the first-dose receivers. As on July 27, 2021, 4,310,443 people received the second dose. 2/ For
vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. As the same person may receive more than one dose, the number of doses
per 100 people can be higher than 100. Sri Lanka and United Kingdom data are as on July 25th, 2021. 3/ The baseline is the median value, for the
corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period 3 Jan-6 Feb 2020. July 2021 data is as on July 23rd, 2021.
Sources: Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh; Our World in Data; Google's COVID-19
Community Mobility Reports; Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BEMT), Bangladesh; and IMF staff calculations
 Bangladesh: Real Sector Developments
The consumption to GDP ratio in FY20 fell slightly to 74.7
Private consumption and investment have been driving percent from 75 percent in FY19, while the investment to
economic activity in recent years. GDP ratio edged up from 31.6 percent to 31.8 percent.
Contributions to Real GDP Growth 1/
FY11-FY20 (y/y, in percentage points) Selected indicators’ Share in Nominal GDP 1/
FY11-FY20 (in percent)
Private Consumption Public Consumption Investment Export
Private Investment Public Investment Import Remittance
Net exports Statiscal discrepancy Consumption (RHS)
GDP growth
40 80
12

8 30 78

4 20 76

0 10 74

-4 0 72
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Compared with FY20, the y/y growth of the quantum Rice production target, in FY21, was set at 38.3 MMT
indices highlight a pickup in the activity in the first nine reflecting the actual production in FY20 (38.7 MMT). Total
months of FY21. target for wheat and maize, in FY21, was set at 6.9 MMT
reflecting the outturn of 6.7 MMT in FY20.
Quantum Index of Medium and Large-Scale
Manufacturing Industries and Electricity 1/ Major Food Grains Production 2/
FY16-FY21(Mar) (y/y growth, in percent) FY14-FY21 (Million Metric Tons (MMT))
Manufacturing Electricity Aus Aman Boro Wheat Maize
25 50
45
20
40
15 35
30
10 25
5 20
15
0 10
5
FY21(Jan)
FY21(Oct)

FY21(Nov)

FY21(Mar)
FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21(Aug)

FY21(Feb)
FY21(Sep)
FY21(Jul)

FY21(Dec)

0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

Headline inflation, in Jun 2021, increased to 5.6 percent from

The twelve-month average headline inflation, in Jun 5.3 percent in May 2021. During the same period, food
2021, remained same at 5.6 percent in May 2021. inflation increased to 5.5 percent from 4.9 percent, while
Twelve Month Average Inflation
non-food inflation remained at 5.9 percent.
June 2018-June 2021 (y/y, in percent)
Point-to-Point Inflation
June 2018-June 2021 (y/y, in percent)
General Food General Food
Non Food Core Non Food Core
8 8

7
6
6
4
5
2 4
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

1/ FY20 and FY21 data are provisional. 2/ FY21 Aus, Aman and wheat data are actual, while Boro and Maize data are the production targets.
Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS); Department of Agriculture Extension, Ministry of Agriculture; Bangladesh Bank; and IMF staff calculations

2
 Bangladesh: External Sector Developments
The current account balance, in FY21(Jul-May), reached a Capital goods contributed positively (2.3 percentage points),
USD 1.8 billion deficit, compared with the USD 4.4 billion oil-related products, and food grains and consumer goods
deficit in FY20 (Jul-May). also contributed positively (3.4 and 2.9 percentage points
respectively) to the overall growth in imports (17.3 percent)
Current Account Balance Components 1/ in FY21(Jul-May).
FY16-FY21(Jul-May) (in billion USD)
Item-wise Contributions to Import Growth 2/
Exports Imports
FY17-FY21(Jul-May), (y/y growth, in percentage points)
Services Primary Income
Other items Other capital goods
Workers' Remittances Other Secondary Income
Capital machinery Other intermediate goods
Current Account Balance Plastics and rubber articles thereof Fertilizer
Chemicals Petroleum, oil and lubricants
70
Iron, steel and other base metals RMG intermediate goods
50 Consumer goods Food grains
Total
30
30
10
20
-10
10
-30
-50 0

-70 -10
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 (Jul- FY21 (Jul- FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-
May) May) May)

Reflecting the pick-up in import payments, international

Remittances grew by 39.5 percent y/y in FY21(Jul-May) reserve coverage has recently started to decline and is
. Export growth was 14 percent, while imports witnessed currently at about 7 months of import coverage.
17.3 percent growth over the same period.
International Reserves 4/
Major Balance of Payments Components 3/
Jun 2018-Jun 2021
FY16-FY21(Jul-May) (y/y growth, in percent)
(In billion USD, unless otherwise indicated)
Exports RMG Exports Gross International Reserves (valuation adjusted)
Other Exports Imports Net International Reserves (BB definition)
Reserves (months of imports, valuation adjusted, RHS)
Remittance
40 48 10
30 42
20 36
30
10
24 5
0 18
-10 12
-20 6
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul- 0 0
May)
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Trade competitiveness has somewhat improved in recent Both letters of credit (LC) opening and settlement have been
months, mostly reflecting the depreciation of the Taka picking up in FY21.
relative to the currency basket of Bangladesh’s trading Sector-wise contributions to total LC opening
partners. and settlement
Exchange Rates FY19-FY21 (Jul-Apr) (y/y, in percentage points)
Jun 2018-Jun 2021 Consumer Goods Capital Machinery
Intermediate Goods Petroleum
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (2010=100) Industrial Raw Materials Others
Real Effective Exchange Rate (2010=100) Total
20
Taka per USD (Period average, RHS) 15
160 86
10
85 5
0
120 84 -5
83 -10
-15
80 82 -20
Opening Settlement Opening Settlement Opening Settlement Opening Settlement
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20
Aug-18

Feb-19
Apr-19

Aug-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-Dec) FY21 (Jul-Apr)

1/ FY21(Jul-May) data are provisional. 2/ Data are recorded by customs. 3/ Exports and imports are f.o.b. data. 4/ Net international reserve (NIR) is
gross international reserves (excluding investment on bonds below the grade BBB, Silver Acquisition A/C, deposit with Rupali Bank, Pakistan &
deposit with Sonali Bank, UK) minus total liabilities. Total liabilities comprise reserve liabilities in ACU, IMF Trust Fund Account (ECF) and other
foreign currency clearing accounts, and deposits of IBRD/IDA, and SDR allocation.
Sources: Bangladesh Bank; Export Promotion Bureau (EPB); and IMF staff calculations

3
 Bangladesh: Fiscal Sector Developments 1/

Total revenue-GDP ratio, in FY20, declined to 9.5 percent Total revenue, in FY20, grew by 4.9 percent (y/y) where VAT
from 10 percent in FY19. Total revenue-GDP ratio, in FY21 and supplementary duties contributed negatively (3.9
(Jul-May), was at 9 percent compared with 8.2 percent in percentage points). Preliminary data available as of July 4th,
FY20 (Jul-May). VAT and the supplementary duties-GDP suggest that total revenue, in FY21 (Jul-May), has increased
ratio, during the same period, increased from 3.6 percent by 21.4 percent (y/y) and the increase in the growth in VAT
to 4.1 percent. and supplementary taxes has had the largest impact (by 10.8
percentage points).
Central Government Revenue Contributions to Total Revenue Generation
FY16-FY21 (Jul-May) (In percent of GDP) FY16-FY21 (Jul-May) (y/y, in percentage points)
Other VAT and supplementary duties Other VAT and supplementary duties
Customs duties Taxes on income and profits Customs duties Taxes on income and profits
Total revenue Total revenue
12 25
9 20
15
6 10
3 5
0
0 -5
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 (Jul- FY21 (Jul- FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-
May) May) May)

Total expenditure-GDP ratio, in FY20, marginally declined
to 15 percent from 15.4 percent in FY19. Total
expenditure-GDP ratio, in FY21 (Jul-May), decreased to
10.1 percent from 10.6 percent. During the same period,
ADP execution decreased from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent
of GDP.
Total expenditure, in FY20, increased by 7.3 percent (y/y),
with ADP expenditure contributing 2.1 percentage points.
Total expenditure, in FY21 (Jul-May), increased by 4.6 percent
(y/y), where interest payments contributed 2.7 percentage
points.
Contributions to central government’s expenditure growth

Central Government Expenditure FY16-FY21 (Jul-May) (y/y, in percentage points)

Other expenditure
FY16-FY21 (Jul-May) (In percent of GDP) Interest payments
Other expenditure Annual development programme (ADP)
Interest payments
Subsidies, transfer and net lending
Annual development programme (ADP)
Pay and allowances
Subsidies, transfer and net lending
Total Expenditure
Pay and allowances
25
Total Expenditure
16 20
15
12
10
8
5
4
0
0
-5
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 (Jul- FY21 (Jul-
May) May) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-
May)

Compared to the same period in the previous FY, the

budget deficit in FY21 (Jul – May) has been primarily Total central government debt, at end-Jun 2020, reached
financed by issuing NSCs. 37.5 percent of GDP from 35.3 percent of GDP at end-Jun
Fiscal Balance and Sources of Financing 2019. It reached 35.2 percent at end-May 2021, where
FY16-FY21 (Jul-May) domestic debt accounted for roughly two thirds of the total
(Billion Taka) central government debt.
Net domestic financing: nonbanks, except NSD
Central Government Debt
Net domestic financing: NSD Jun 2016-May 2021
Net domestic financing: banks (In percent of GDP)
Net external financing
Net Finnacing External debt Domestic debt
40
2000
1500 30
1000
20
500
0 10

-500 0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 (Jul-FY21 (Jul-
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 May-21
May) May)

1/ FY20 and FY21 fiscal data are provisional. FY21 (Jul-May) GDP data is annualized using provisional GDP of FY20, and IMF staff projected GDP for FY21.
Sources: Office of the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance; and IMF Staff calculations

4
 Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Market Developments
Reserve money, at end-May 2021, grew by 21.3 percent Broad money (M2), at end-May 2021, grew by 12.9 percent
(y/y) compared with 23.3 percent (y/y) in Apr 2021, with private sector credit and net foreign assets contributing
mainly driven by net foreign assets. 6.1 and 6.8 percentage points, respectively, to this growth.

Contributions to Reserve Money Growth Contributions to Broad Money (M2) Growth

May 2018-May 2021 (y/y, in percentage points) May 2018-May 2021 (y/y, in percentage points)
Other net domestic assets Other domestic assets
Non-reserve liabilities to DMBs Claims on the private sector
Claims on DMBs
Net claims on central government
Net claims on government
Net foreign assets
Net foreign assets
Broad money
Reserve Money
40 20
30 15
20 10
10
5
0
-10 0
-20 -5
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Broad money (M3) growth reached 12.6 percent, in May Interest rates, which have been declining since April 2020-
2021, with M2 and NSC sales accounting for 10.4 and 2.4 reflect an easing in the money market.
percentage points respectively.

Contributions to Broad Money (M3) Growth Interest Rates 1/

May 2018-May 2021 (y/y, in percentage points) Jun 2018-Jun 2021 (in percentage points)
Other Deposit Rate
M2 Lending Rate
National Savings Certificates (NSC) Call Money Rate
Broad Money (M3) 91-DAY TREASURY BILLS
14 2-YEAR TREASURY BONDS
12 10
10 8
8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0
-2 0
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Excess liquid assets (as percent of total demand and time The growth of bank advances to the private sector edged
liabilities in the industry), in April 2021, reached 15.4 down to 9.1 percent in Q3 FY21. This was mostly driven by
percent compared with 7.9 percent in Mar 2020. lower advances to trade and commerce, and industrial term
Excess Liquid Assets (as percent of total time and loan
demand liabilities) 2/, Mar 2018-Apr 2021 Economic Purpose-wise Contributions to Bank
Foreign Banks Advances’ Growth (Private Sector)
Islamic Banks
FY16-Q3 FY21 (y/y, in percentage point)
Private Banks (Other than Islamic)
Specialised Banks Others Consumer finance
Other Institutional loan Trade & Commerce
State-owned Banks
Transport Construction
Total Industry: Working capital financing Industry: Term loan
18
Agriculture: Others Agriculture: Crops
16 Total
14
12 18
10 14
8 10
6
6
4
2 2
0 -2
May-18

May-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Mar-18

Oct-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Oct-20

Mar-21
Aug-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Aug-20

Apr-21
Sep-18
Jul-18

Dec-18

Dec-19

Jul-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1 Q2 Q3

FY21 FY21 FY21

1/ Call money rate, 91-Day Treasury Bills rate, and 2-Year Treasury Bonds rate are as on Jun 14th, 2021.
2/ Excess Liquidity is statutory liquidity eligible liquid assets of banks minus statutory liquidity (excluding cash reserve). Excess Reserve is balance
with Bangladesh Bank in local currency minus required cash reserve. These are provisional data taken from Bangladesh Bank’s Department of Off-
Site Supervision. Sources: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations

5
 Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Market Developments… Contd.

The CAR of the banking industry, in Mar 2021, reached 11.7

The loan-to-deposit ratio, in May 2021, reached 81.1
percent from 11.6 percent in Dec 2020. CAR of the state-
percent from 81.6 percent in Apr 2021. During the period,
owned banks (SOBs), in Mar 2021, increased to 6.5 percent
the ratio (excluding government deposits) decreased from
from 4.3 percent in Dec 2020 remaining below the regulatory
87.4 percent to 86.9 percent.
requirement of 10 percent.
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)
May 2018-May 2021 (in percent)
Dec 2016-Mar 2021 (in percent)
30
Loan-to-deposit ratio
25
Loan-to-deposit ratio (excl. govt. deposits) 20
100 15
95
90 10
85 5
80 0
75

Mar-21

Mar-21

Mar-21

Mar-21
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs

The banking sector’s NPL ratio, in Mar 2021, increased to

Stressed advances in the banking industry (sum of NPLs,
8.1 percent from 7.7 percent in Dec 2020. In SOBs, the
rescheduled and restructured loans), at end-Dec 2018,
ratio remained at 20.9 percent, and in the case of private
accounted for 20.5 percent of outstanding loans.
commercial banks (PCBs), increased to 5.1 percent (from
4.7 percent).
Stressed Advances
Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio
Dec 2014-Dec 2018 (in percent of loans)
Dec 2016-Mar 2021 (in percent of loans)
35 Stressed Advances NPL
30
25 30
20
15 20
10
5
0 10
Mar-21

Mar-21

Mar-21

Mar-21
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

0
Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Banking sector advances, at end-Q3 FY21, reached

Tk.11119.4 billion, where private commercial banks and The 3-mma DSE broad index, turnover, and price volatility
state-owned commercial banks, respectively, comprise have been picking up since end-April 2021.
74.8 percent and 19.3 percent.
Dhaka Stock Market Performance 1/
Banking Sector Advance Jun 2018-Jun 2021
(3-month moving average)
FY16- Q3 FY21 (in billion Taka)
Foreign commercial banks
Private commercial banks DSE Broad Index
Specialised banks Turnover (in billions of Taka, RHS)
State owned commercial banks
Price Volatility (3 months moving standard deviation, RHS)
Total
12000 6500 350

6000
250
8000
5500
150
4000 5000
50
4500
0
4000 -50
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1 Q2 Q3
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

FY21 FY21 FY21

1/ Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in Apr 2020 there was no stock market transaction.
Sources: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations