Energy Daily

Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

France, Germany still deadlocked over CFDs for nuclear

(Montel) France and Germany remained deadlocked after an initial debate on Tuesday among EU energy ministers over how to use
_________________________________________
contracts for difference (CFDs) for nuclear as part of draft power market reforms. EEX DE BASE Y1: 130 EUR/MWh (Last)

The Spanish EU presidency was still hopeful, however, the issue could be resolved today with further talks, its energy minister Teresa
Ribera said after chairing the morning debate.

The current deadlock is preventing the EU Council of ministers, representing national governments, from starting talks with the European
Parliament to agree the final text needed for the reforms to become binding. _________________________________________
EEX FR BASE Y1: 139,35 EUR/MWh (Last)
Germany’s proposed solution included requiring governments to use two­way CFDs for state­supported investments in both new and
existing nuclear and renewable power plants, said its energy minister Robert Habeck.

He also called for limits on distributing revenues from CFDs awarded through non­competitive tenders “to ensure the electricity prices for
companies do not distort the level playing field”.
_________________________________________
EEX IT BASE Y1: 149 EUR/MWh (Last)
Finally, he wanted the European Commission to assess and approve such CFDs and their impacts.

He did not support the Spanish EU presidency’s compromise proposal, which deleted the text requiring governments to use two­way
CFDs for existing power plants, saying this was simply “ignoring” the problem.

Nuclear discrimination _________________________________________

But French energy minister Agnes Pannier­Runacher said ensuring a level playing field should not involve discriminating against nuclear ICE ATW Y1: 137,25 EUR/t (Last)
power, a view echoed by several ministers from eastern European countries.

“I think what some are trying to do is structurally degrade the competitiveness of nuclear power for the benefit of renewables,” she said.

The EU was going to have to invest massively in generation capacity to meet its future electricity demand.
_________________________________________
ICE BRN M1: 90,91 USD/bbl (Last)
“We need to prolong the lifespan of nuclear power stations… Nuclear is a backstop. It is there to provide security of supply alongside
renewables,” she said.

State­aid issue
Ministers from Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden were among those who supported the German proposal as helping ensure
fair competition between EU countries. _________________________________________
EEX TTF Y1: 54 EUR/MWh (Last)
Belgian energy minister Tinne Van der Straeten said it was important the power market design reforms worked with the EU’s state­aid
rules.

These are intended to prevent EU countries from giving their companies a competitive advantage over rivals in the rest of the bloc via
state subsidies.
_________________________________________
EEX THE Y1: 54,804 EUR/MWh (Last)
The CFD dispute was “about competitiveness, not necessarily restricted to one or other technology”, she said.

“It is about how to set the price and what to do with the revenues.”

Siobhan Hall
_________________________________________
EEX FEUA MDEC1: 82,78 EUR/t (Last)

Energy News EN
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

UK needs 30 TWh flexible capacity to balance grid – advisor EU ministers end deadlock on draft CFD rules for nuclear

(Montel) The UK must add 30 TWh of flexible generation capacity, including hydrogen (Montel) EU energy ministers have agreed draft rules for using contracts for difference
and carbon capture and storage (CCS), to balance the growing use of intermittent (CFDs) for nuclear, ending a deadlock that had prevented progress on agreeing wider
renewable energy on the grid by 2035, the National Infrastructure Commission said on power market design reforms with the European Parliament.
 Energy News EN
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

UK needs 30 TWh flexible capacity to balance grid – advisor EU ministers end deadlock on draft CFD rules for nuclear

(Montel) The UK must add 30 TWh of flexible generation capacity, including hydrogen (Montel) EU energy ministers have agreed draft rules for using contracts for difference
and carbon capture and storage (CCS), to balance the growing use of intermittent (CFDs) for nuclear, ending a deadlock that had prevented progress on agreeing wider
renewable energy on the grid by 2035, the National Infrastructure Commission said on power market design reforms with the European Parliament.
Wednesday.
read online →
read online →

Italy to offer 1.2 GW of green capacity with higher prices EU could cope without Russian gas this winter – TSOs

(Montel) Italy’s state­owned energy services company GSE will tender nearly 1.23 GW (Montel) The EU could cope without Russian pipeline gas this winter if needed by
of new renewable energy and repowering capacity in its upcoming green auction amid taking measures such as cutting demand by 15% and increasing alternative supplies,
increased base prices, it said on Tuesday. said EU gas grid operators’ body Entsog on Tuesday.

read online → read online →

France faces EU sanctions for missing renewable targets END OF DAY – Carbon, gas continue to fall

(Montel) France could face financial penalties if it does not compensate for missing
EU renewable energy targets set out for 2020, said a report by France’s auditors’
court published on Tuesday.
read online →
(Montel) European carbon prices continued to fall in tandem with a weaker gas market
on Tuesday, with both markets drawing pressure from milder weather forecasts.
read online →

Unplanned Visund outage cuts Norway gas flows 5mcm/day Europe may see colder than normal Jan, Feb – forecaster

(Montel) An unplanned outage at Norway’s Visund gas field has cut flows by
5mcm/day since Tuesday morning, according to TSO Gassco.
read online →
(Montel) Most European countries should see a mild November and December, but
January and February could turn out cooler than normal, according to a forecast by
Atmospheric G2.
read online →

EDF extends Bugey 2 (910 MW) outage by 9 days Uniper to test Scholven 1 (138 MW) gas unit in November

(Montel) French utility EDF has extended a maintenance outage at its Bugey 2 (910
MW) nuclear unit until 3 November at 23:00 CET, it said on Tuesday.
read online →
(Montel) Germany’s Uniper plans to test its new Scholven 1 (138 MW) gas­fired power
plant from November following an initial launch delay of more than a year, the utility
said on Tuesday.
read online →

Buy gas now to hedge risk – French players Unplanned Dvalin outage cuts Norway gas flows 5.1mcm

(Montel) Companies should buy gas now to limit price volatility risk at least until
additional LNG supplies arrive in 2026­27, said a French supplier, along with the
manager of one of the country's LNG terminals.
read online →
(Montel) An unplanned outage at the Dvalin gas field has cut Norwegian gas flows to
the rest of Europe by 5.1mcm/day on Tuesday, said TSO Gassco.
read online →

France, Germany still deadlocked over CFDs for nuclear Lithuania to open 700 MW offshore wind tender in Jan

(Montel) France and Germany remained deadlocked after an initial debate on (Montel) Lithuania’s energy ministry plans to launch the country’s second offshore wind
Tuesday among EU energy ministers over how to use contracts for difference (CFDs) auction for 700 MW of capacity on 15 January, it said on Tuesday.
for nuclear as part of draft power market reforms.
read online →
read online →

Energy News DE
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

Markt bietet jetzt gute Bedingung für Gas­Hedging – Experten Januar, Februar könnten noch kalt ausfallen – Prognose

(Montel) Unternehmen sollten jetzt Gas kaufen, um das Risiko der Preisvolatilität (Montel) November und Dezember sollten in den meisten Ländern und Regionen
zumindest bis zum Eintreffen zusätzlicher LNG­Lieferungen in den Jahren 2026­27 zu Europas noch mild ausfallen, doch es besteht noch eine Chance für einen kühlen
begrenzen, hieß es von französischen Experten aus dem Gashandel am Dienstag. Januar und Februar, zeigte eine Prognose des US­amerikanischen Wetterdienstes

Markt bietet jetzt gute Bedingung für Gas­Hedging – Experten
(Montel) Unternehmen sollten jetzt Gas kaufen, um das Risiko der Preisvolatilität (Montel) November und Dezember sollten in den meisten Ländern und Regionen
zumindest bis zum Eintreffen zusätzlicher LNG­Lieferungen in den Jahren 2026­27 zu Europas noch mild ausfallen, doch es besteht noch eine Chance für einen kühlen
begrenzen, hieß es von französischen Experten aus dem Gashandel am Dienstag.
Online lesen →
Uniper plant Test für Scholven 1 (138 MW) ab November
(Montel) Der Energiekonzern Uniper will das Gaskraftwerk Scholven 1 (138 MW) ab
November testen, teilte das Unternehmen am Dienstag mit. Zuletzt wurde der
kommerzielle Betriebsstart für den 1. Dezember geplant.
Online lesen →
Ohne Industriestrompreis scheitert Dekarbonisierung – VIK
(Montel) Energieintensive Unternehmen benötigen einen vergünstigten
Industriestrompreis, um ihre Produktionsprozesse klimaneutral zu gestalten, sagte
Christian Seyfert, Hauptgeschäftsführer des Verbands der Industriellen Energie­ und
Kraftwirtschaft (VIK) gegenüber Montel. Einzelmaßnahmen wie die Absenkung der
Stromsteuer reichen nicht aus.
Online lesen →
EU drängt in Dubai auf schnelles Aus für fossile Brennstoffe
(Montel) Die EU wird auf dem UN­Klimagipfel COP28, der im November in Dubai
stattfindet, einen Ausstieg aus der weltweiten Nutzung fossiler Brennstoffe „deutlich
vor 2050“ fordern, teilte sie am späten Montag mit.
Online lesen →
KOHLE: Preise können 6­Monatshoch ausbauen
(Montel) Die europäischen Kohlepreise könnten ihre jüngsten Sechs­Monatshochs
weiter ausbauen, wobei sich der Markt bei einem ansonsten reichlichen Angebot und
einer mäßigen Nachfrage nach wie vor an den konkurrierenden Gaspreisen orientiert,
sagten Marktteilnehmer am Montag.
Online lesen →
Italien will EU­Gaspreisdeckel um 1 Jahr verlängern
(Montel) Die europäische Obergrenze für Gaspreise soll um ein weiteres Jahr
verlängert werden und nicht im Dezember enden, forderte ein italienischer
Regierungsbeamter. Die Gaspreise in Italien liegen nahe an ihrem Achtmonatshoch.
Online lesen →
Australische LNG­Arbeiter stimmen für Streik ab Donnerstag
(Montel) Die Beschäftigten in zwei australischen LNG­Anlagen des Produzenten
Chevron haben für einen Streik ab Donnerstag gestimmt, teilte das
Energieunternehmen am Sonntag mit. Zuvor waren Verhandlungen gescheitert.
Online lesen →
Spot Europe
Energy News DE
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023
Januar, Februar könnten noch kalt ausfallen – Prognose
Januar und Februar, zeigte eine Prognose des US­amerikanischen Wetterdienstes
Atmospheric G2 (AG2) vom späten Montag.
Online lesen →
Globale Gaskrise kann bis 2025 andauern – Berater
(Montel) Die globale Gaskrise könnte bis 2025 andauern, teilte das Beratungshaus
Timera am Dienstag mit. LNG kann den Wegfall von russischem Gas mit der
steigenden Nachfrage vorerst nicht ausreichend kompensieren.
Online lesen →
Spanischer Vorschlag wird KKW­CFD nicht stoppen – Frankreich
(Montel) Die jüngsten Vorschläge der spanischen EU­Ratspräsidentschaft zur
Strommarktreform hindern Frankreich nicht daran, Differenzkontrakte (CFD) zur
Förderung bestehender Kernkraftwerke zu nutzen, sagte die französische
Energieministerin Agnes Pannier­Runacher.
Online lesen →
LNG: Importe stagnieren im Wochenvergleich
(Montel) Die LNG­Lieferungen nach Europa und in die Türkei sind vergangene Woche
im Vergleich zu den vorangegangenen sieben Tagen unverändert geblieben und
beliefen sich auf insgesamt 3,1 Mrd. Kubikmeter, zeigten Schiffsverfolgungsdaten von
Kpler am Montag.
Online lesen →
Krise verdoppelt Kosten für grünen H2 – Studie
(Montel) Die europäische Energiekrise hat die erwarteten Kosten für die heimische
Produktion von grünem Wasserstoff in diesem Jahrzehnt verdoppelt, zeigte eine
Studie des Beratungshauses Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Die Entwicklung
gefährdet bereits Projekte.
Online lesen →
EU­Streit über CFD könnte noch andauern – Quelle
(Montel) Die EU­Energieminister wollen ihre Differenzen über die Verwendung von
Differenzkontrakten (CFD) zur Förderung der Kernenergie am Dienstag beilegen. Die
Entscheidung könnte aber auch vertagt werden, sagte ein EU­Beamter.
Online lesen →
GASWOCHE: Markt steht volatile Woche bevor
(Montel) Die Gaspreise im Marktgebiet Trading Hub Europe (THE) dürften auch
kommende Woche sehr volatil ausfallen, da kälteres Wetter, geopolitische Konflikte
und die Streiks in Australien für Nervosität sorgen.
Online lesen →
Power Market
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023
GERMAN – Spot power to drop 20% on higher wind output
(Montel) German day­ahead power prices looked to fall by around 20% on Tuesday as
forecasts showed wind power generation to more than triple.
 Power Market
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

Spot Europe GERMAN – Spot power to drop 20% on higher wind output

(Montel) German day­ahead power prices looked to fall by around 20% on Tuesday as
forecasts showed wind power generation to more than triple.

Baseload for Wednesday was last seen at EUR 102.24/MWh on the EEX, down from
EUR 130.12/MWh for Tuesday delivery.

Wind power generation could rise 10.8 GW from today to average 15.2 GW tomorrow,
forecasts collated by Montel showed. Forecaster DWD pegged wind generation on
Wednesday to average 15.1 GW, although 2.8 GW below normal.

Average solar power production would rise 0.3 GW to 5.6 GW, with peak generation
increasing 2.6 GW to 22.8 GW, according to data from Montel’s Energy Quantified
(EQ).

The combined solar and wind midday peak would rise from 23.1 GW to 32.9 GW on
Wednesday.
Product Last Change PrevWkAvg PrevMoAvg
EPEX DE 98,445 ­31,680 77,922 100,723 Residual load – the amount of demand not covered by solar and wind energy – was
EPEX FR 61,501 ­51,230 84,001 88,705 expected to fall 11.4 GW to 36.4 GW, or 3 GW above average, according to EQ.
GME (Italy) 151,670 ­9,421 145,304 115,697
EPEX NL 79,900 ­43,881 84,011 98,692 Overall power demand was forecast to reach 57 GW on Wednesday, down 0.2 GW
BPX 65,702 ­51,396 83,638 94,349 from the previous day and 1.3 GW above normal, while peak demand would inch up 0.1
GW to 66.3 GW, EQ data showed.

Futures Europe (Month) In neighbouring France, peak demand was set to fall 2.9 GW to 49.6 GW, with the
average forecast at 44.2 GW, or 5.2 GW below normal.

In Germany, temperatures would average 6.9C on Wednesday, 0.7C higher than today
and 2.5C below normal, according to EQ. In France, temperatures were expected to
average 16.2C, up 2.7C on today and 3.5C above normal.

Meanwhile, German lignite availability was forecast to rise 1.1 GW to 16.9 GW on

Wednesday, or 95% of operational capacity, EEX data showed.

The following conventional power plants of more than 700 MW of installed capacity are
scheduled to be offline on Wednesday:

Installed Outage
Name Fuel Outage End Operator
MW Start
Heilbronn Hard
778 2023/01/29 2024/03/31 ENBW
7 Coal
Boxberg Q 840 Lignite 2023/07/08 2023/10/31 Leag
Product Close PrevWkAvg PrevMoAvg
EEX DE BASE M1 114,060 119,318 113,681
EEX FR BASE M1 117,220 125,002 120,941
EEX IT BASE M1 141,500 143,536 133,351

Futures Europe (Quarter)

Product Close PrevWkAvg PrevMoAvg

EEX DE BASE Q1 134,080 136,168 128,349
EEX FR BASE Q1 150,450 151,164 146,165
EEX IT BASE Q1 157,030 155,384 148,286

Futures Europe (Year)

Product Close PrevWkAvg PrevMoAvg

EEX DE BASE Y1 129,500 131,232 127,636
EEX FR BASE Y1 139,240 137,970 134,346
EEX IT BASE Y1 149,420 147,960 143,752

Gas Market
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

Spot Europe GAS – Prices fall on milder outlook but risks remain

(Montel) European gas contracts declined on Tuesday on the back of milder weather
forecasts but geopolitical risks still remained.
 Gas Market
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

Spot Europe GAS – Prices fall on milder outlook but risks remain

(Montel) European gas contracts declined on Tuesday on the back of milder weather
forecasts but geopolitical risks still remained.

The November contract on the benchmark Dutch TTF hub was last seen down EUR
0.99 at EUR 47.48/MWh on Ice Endex, after reaching an eight­month high of EUR
56.10/MWh this week, while the UK's NBP equivalent fell 2.72p to 118.45p/th.

“We’re seeing some forecasts for warmer temperatures, so gas is coming down,” a
trader said.

Next week, temperatures in Germany, the EU’s biggest gas consumer, should stand at
1.6C above the norm, after a cold spell this week when they hit 0.8C below, data from
Montel's Energy Quantified showed.

“Additionally, we’ve seen quite the big increase [in prices] this week, so part of this is
also a correction,” the trader added.
Product Close PrevWkAvg PrevMoAvg
EEX THE D1 45,433 48,575 37,375 Contracts have soared recently on the back of bullish sentiment amid fears of possible
EEX PEG DA 41,523 47,850 36,194 sabotage of the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia, the war
EEX ZEE DA 102,500 ­ 98,500 between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas and a looming LNG strike in
EEX TTF DA 45,249 48,582 36,991 Australia.

Gas Month Europe “All of these risks are still there but I do believe prices overreacted,” the trader added.

Product Close PrevWkAvg PrevMoAvg Another market participant said many traders had been short before the price rise, so
EEX THE M1 49,096 49,171 45,014 that limits had been triggered, exaggerating the move.
EEX ZTP M1 48,284 49,111 43,894
“Nightmare market”
EEX AUTVTP M1 49,159 49,470 45,369
“Now the market is probably clear of the shorts and the temperatures turned warmer
EEX PSV M1 47,545 48,350 44,335
again, it’s a nightmare,” he said, adding it was hard to predict the direction from here.
ICE NBD M1 122,030 124,256 109,755

While the rising temperatures should indicate a price fall, the overall environment might
prevent prices from falling further, he said.
Gas Storage Europe
In terms of current supply, flows from major supplier Norway to the rest of Europe were
last seen at 320.4mcm/day, about 8mcm lower day on day, Gassco data showed.

LNG Storage Europe

Other Markets
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

OIL ICE BRENT ($/bbl) OIL BRENT FORWARD CURVE ($/bbl)

 Other Markets
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

OIL ICE BRENT ($/bbl) OIL BRENT FORWARD CURVE ($/bbl)

COAL ICE API2 (€/t) EUA EEX CARBON (€/t)

WIND / SOLAR PROD. 7­DAY­PROGNOSIS TEMP. / PRECIPITATION 7­DAY­PROGNOSIS

EXCHANGE RATE EUR / USD LNG HENRY HUB FORWARD CURVE ($/MMbtu)

Glossary
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

Term Description

AGSI European Gas Storage Inventory

API2 Coal index for northwest­Europe (ARA, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerpen)
 Glossary
Mittwoch, 18. Oktober 2023

Term Description

AGSI European Gas Storage Inventory

API2 Coal index for northwest­Europe (ARA, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerpen)
bbl Barrel (1 bbl, 158,9873 Litres)
Brent Rohöl from the North Sea
C Degrees Celsius
DA Day Ahead
EEX European Energy Exchange (DE)
EGSI European Gas Spot Index
EPEX European Power Exchange, Spot Market
EUA European Allowances, CO2 emission rights
GIE Gas Infrastructure Europe (Association)
GW Gigawatt
Henry Hub Market area Gas­Futures (US)
ICE Intercontinental Exchange (UK)
LNG Liquified Natural Gas
MMBTU/MBTU (Million)British Thermal Units(3412 BTUs = 1 kWh)
MWh Megawatthour
NBP National Balancing Point (UK)
THE Trading Hub Europe (DE)
Phelix Physical Electricity Index from EEX
Power Base­Load Delivery of power for 24 hours
Power Off­Peak Delivery of power between Mo­Fr 20 o'clock and 8 and on the weekend
Power Peak­Load Delivery of power between 8 o'clock and 20
t Ton
TTF Market area Title Transfer Facility (NED)
USD US Dollar

Disclaimer

The current prices reflect MONTEL's market observation on the basis of the stock exchange platforms. Montel has compiled the information to the best of its knowledge and belief. The information does not
constitute a recommendation to the recipient nor does it constitute comprehensive individual advice.

EEX Group assumes no liability for correctness, errors, inaccuracies, timeliness, delays, omissions, suitability for a particular purpose, freedom from viruses etc., or for error­free transmission with regard to
the information and market data provided. The recipient can therefore not derive any claims against EEX Group from this information and market data. The recipient does not acquire any rights or licenses to
the content. It is made available to the recipient exclusively for its own use. Any use beyond this, in particular commercial distribution of the content, is only permitted with the prior written consent of EEX
Group. This paragraph shall not apply insofar as anything to the contrary results from a prior individual written agreement between the recipient and EEX Group.