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Introduction among men is 71.3 per 100,000 and for women it is 52.3 per
100,000. Although the incidence rate has been declining in men
In the United States, lung cancer is the second most common
since the mid-1980s, incidence rates did not start declining for
diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death.
women until the mid-2000s because of historical sex-specific
Although tobacco smoking is the major risk factor accounting for
differences of smoking uptake and cessation. The decline in
80% to 90% of all lung cancer diagnoses, there are numerous
incidence has gained momentum in the past decade with rates
other risk factors that have been identified as casually associated
decreasing from 2011 to 2015 by nearly 3% per year in men and
with lung cancer etiology. However, there are few causally linked
1.5% per year in women. Geographically, lung cancer incidence is
risk factors for lung cancer diagnosed among never smokers,
higher in the Midwest, East, and South with the highest rates
which, if considered a unique reportable category, is the 11th
observed in the South for both men and women (Fig. 2A and B).
www.aacrjournals.org 1563
Cancer Progress and Priorities
1564 Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 28(10) October 2019 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Cancer Progress and Priorities: Lung Cancer
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Figure 2.
Age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates in the United States. A, Age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates for males in the United States, 2011–2015, using data
from U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group. B, Age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates for females in the United States, 2011–2015, using data from U.S. Cancer
Statistics Working Group. Among both males and females, lung cancer incidence is higher in the Midwest and East and the highest rates are observed in the
South, while the lowest rates are generally found in Western states. Data source: U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group. U.S. Cancer Statistics Data Visualizations
Tool, based on November 2017 submission data (1999–2015): U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and
National Cancer Institute (www.cdc.gov/cancer/dataviz), June 2018.
introduced, combusted tobacco smoke dispersed deeper into the Although the binary division of lung cancer into NSCLC and
respiratory tree due to deeper inhalation resulting in adenocarci- SCLC is still widely applied and relevant, advances in genomic
nomas with a more peripheral distribution (11). The introduction profiling has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby lung cancers are
of so-called "light" filtered cigarettes and changing tobacco also characterized and classified by tumor biomarkers and genetic
blends, which decreased nicotine but increased nitrates and alterations, such as gene expression, mutations, amplifications,
N-nitrosamines, had the paradoxical effect of increasing, rather and rearrangements (Table 1), that are critical to tumor growth
than decreasing, lung cancer risk due to promotion of deeper and and survival and can be exploited with specific targeted agents or
more frequent inhalation of combusted tobacco smoke (10, 11). immune-checkpoint blockades (12–14).
1566 Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 28(10) October 2019 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Cancer Progress and Priorities: Lung Cancer
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Figure 4.
Age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in the United States. A, Age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates for males in the United States, 2011–2015, using data
from U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group. B, Age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates for females in the United States, 2011–2015, using data from U.S. Cancer
Statistics Working Group. Among both males and females, lung cancer morality is higher in the Midwest, East, and South and lowest in most Mountain states and
California. Data source: U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group. U.S. Cancer Statistics Data Visualizations Tool, based on November 2017 submission data (1999–
2015): U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Cancer Institute (www.cdc.gov/cancer/dataviz),
June 2018.
authors acknowledge that ". . .these data may yet underestimate the found that the proportion of patients with lung cancer who
true relative risk of smoking-related lung cancer in women, given later reported themselves as never smokers increased over time, but
uptake and lower intensity of smoking in women." the observed increase was independent of sex.
Regarding sex-specific lung cancer among never smokers, there
is compelling historic evidence (16–18) that suggests a higher Race and ethnicity
risk, incidence, and mortality among never-smoking females Racial and ethnic differences in lung cancer incidence, mortal-
versus never-smoking males. Conversely, a multi-institutional ity, and survival outcomes are well-documented and are largely
registry-based study (19) of over 12,000 patients with lung cancer attributed to inequalities in wealth (i.e., socioeconomic status)
25%
20%
15% Figure 5.
Percent survival
0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
leading to differences in risk factor exposures and barriers to disease (27% vs. 30%), but not for distant disease (5% vs. 5%).
high-quality prevention, early detection, and treatment (4). Anal- Black patients with lung cancer are more frequently diagnosed
yses from the American Cancer Society (4) revealed that lung with distant disease compared with White patients (61% vs. 57%)
cancer incidence for non-Hispanic Black men (85.4 per 100,000) and less frequently diagnosed with localized disease (13% vs.
is higher than non-Hispanic White men (74.3 per 100,000) and 17%).
Hispanic men (39.2 per 100,000). However, the incidence for
non-Hispanic Black women (49.2 per 100,000) and Hispanic Socioeconomic status
women (24.6 per 100,000) is lower than non-Hispanic White Socioeconomic status (SES) is a broad term for the social
women (57.4 per 100,000). Similar trends were noted for lung standing or "class" of an individual or group of people and is
cancer mortality. Black patients with lung cancer (16%) have often measured based on highest attained education, income, and
overall lower 5-year relative survival rate than Whites (19%), occupation. SES is associated with health and disease through
which is consistent for localized (52% vs. 56%) and regional multiple interacting pathways in terms of resources, physical and
100
90
Percent of lung cancer cases at diagnosis
80
Figure 6.
Percent of lung cancer cases at
70
diagnosis and 5-year relative
survival by stage. The percentage
5-year survival = 4.7%
60 of lung cancer cases diagnosed in
the United States by stage and their
50 respective 5-year survival rates
using data from SEER 18 (https://
seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/
40
lungb.html). "Localized" is confined
to the primary site, "regional" has
30 spread to the regional lymph nodes,
5-year survival = 29.7% and "distant" is a cancer that has
20
metastasized. "Unknown," which
5-year survival = 56.3%
accounts for 4% of diagnoses and
has an 8.2% 5-year survival, is not
10 shown.
16% 22% 57%
0
Localized Regional Distant
Stage at diagnosis
1568 Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 28(10) October 2019 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Cancer Progress and Priorities: Lung Cancer
Squamous cell
carcinoma
25%
A 25
Adenocarcinoma
Age-adjusted incidence per 100,000
20
15
10
Squamous cell
carcinoma
Small cell carcinoma Figure 8.
5
Age-adjusted incidence rates (per
100,000) for lung and bronchus
cancer by year of diagnosis and
20
15 Squamous cell
carcinoma
10
Exposure to secondhand smoke Tobacco Smoke (52) concluded there is no safe level of exposure
Secondhand smoke, or side-stream smoke, is an indirect car- to secondhand tobacco smoke and stated, "The evidence is sufficient
cinogenic exposure resulting from the burning of tobacco pro- to infer a causal relationship between secondhand smoke exposure and
ducts. From 1988 to 2014, secondhand smoke exposure among lung cancer among lifetime nonsmokers. This conclusion extends to all
never smokers in the United States significantly declined from secondhand smoke exposure, regardless of location." A meta-analysis
87.5% to 25.2%, attributed to tobacco control efforts and smoke- published in 2018 of 12 studies found that secondhand smoke
free laws and policies in workplaces and public places (50). exposure compared with never smokers without such exposure
However, there has been no change in secondhand smoke expo- was associated with a 25% increased risk of lung cancer (53). A
sure between 2011 to 2012 and between 2013 to 2014 with an separate meta-analysis that assessed the association between
estimated 1 in 4 never smokers, or about 58 million people, secondhand smoke and lung cancer in Japanese nonsmokers
exposed to secondhand smoke from 2013 to 2014 (50). Carcino- found a 28% increased risk (54).
gens that have been measured in secondhand smoke include
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, nitrosamines, and aromatic Electronic cigarettes
amines. Studies have shown that nicotine and its metabolite Electronic nicotine delivery systems, also referred to as elec-
cotinine as well as DNA adducts from tobacco carcinogens are tronic cigarettes and e-cigarettes, allow for the delivery of nicotine
present in the urine of never smokers who are exposed to sec- to the lung epithelium via an electronic device. Although a patent
ondhand smoke (51). A 2006 report from the U.S. Surgeon for this type of device was first issued in 1965, mass production of
General on The Health Consequences of Involuntary Exposure to e-cigarettes did not occur until 2003 and became widely available
1570 Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 28(10) October 2019 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Cancer Progress and Priorities: Lung Cancer
Table 1. Frequency of somatic mutations and alterations in NSCLC increased oxidative stress, which seems to mediate the adverse
Frequency effects of e-cigarettes. Oxidative stress develops in e-cigarette–
Gene Alteration type in NSCLC exposed human bronchial and lung epithelial cells that can result
EGFR Mutation 10%–35% in adverse intermediate events, including inflammation, cytotox-
KRAS Mutation 15%–25%
FGFR1 Amplification 20%
icity, and increased endothelial cell permeability (68, 69). A
PTEN Mutation 4%–8% model has been proposed for the role of oxidative stress in
DDR2 Mutation 4% mediating adverse effects of e-cigarettes leading to cancer, cardio-
ALK Rearrangement 3%–7% pulmonary pathogenesis, and neurodegenerative disorders (65).
HER2 Mutation 2%–4% Furthermore, studies have demonstrated that e-cigarettes generate
MET Amplification 2%–4%
acute deleterious effects on lung function (70, 71). Cumulatively,
BRAF Mutation 1%–3%
PIK3CA Mutation 1%–3%
data suggest that vapor produced from e-cigarettes contains
AKT1 Mutation 1% potentially harmful compounds and may lead to adverse effects
MEK1 Mutation 1% on human health. Although data suggest that e-cigarettes may be a
NRAS Mutation 1% less harmful alternative to conventional cigarettes, at present,
RET Rearrangement 1% there are no data regarding the long-term cancer risk associated
ROS1 Rearrangement 1%
with low-level exposure to the detected carcinogens (72).
4,500 120
Per capita cigarette consumption
Male lung cancer death rate
Female lung cancer death rate
4,000
3,500
0 0
0
10
20
30
0
50
60
70
80
85
90
95
20 1
2
9
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
20
20
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
20
20
19
20
19
19
20
20
19
20
19
20
Year
ammonia, carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, phenols, nitrosa- graphic differences in radon concentration and on the method of
mines, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (80). In addition, calculation (87). In the United States, radon exposure is estimated
regular smoking of marijuana alone is associated with adverse to be the second leading cause of lung cancer and responsible for
effects on the respiratory system similar to that of cigarette over 21,000 or 13% of lung cancer–related deaths each
smoking (81, 82). However, despite the evidence of adverse year (87, 88). Published meta-analyses have reported that indoor
biological effects, to date there is no conclusive evidence that radon exposure is associated with a 14% to 29% increased risk of
suggests cannabis smoking is associated with an increased inci- lung cancer (89–91).
dence of lung cancer. A pooled analysis from the International
Lung Cancer Consortium of 2,159 lung cancer cases and 2,985 Occupational exposures
controls found little evidence for an increased risk of lung cancer Occupational exposure to carcinogens is estimated to account
among habitual or long-term cannabis smokers (83). However, it for 5% to 10% of lung cancers (41, 88, 92), of which asbestos
should be noted that studies to date have been limited by sample exposure is historically the most common. Asbestos is a com-
size, self-report, and confounding (e.g., many marijuana users mercial term for a group of naturally occurring mineral silicate
also report tobacco use). Marijuana use is prevalent among youth fibers, including amphiboles (crocidolite, amosite, tremolite,
in the United States, as data from the National Survey on Drug Use anthophyllite, and actinolite) and chrysotile (the sole serpentine
and Health reported that prevalence of past-year use was between fiber). Asbestos is found on all continents, has been used com-
12% and 16% for adolescents ages 12 to 17 years between 2002 mercially since the 19th century, and is still used in some countries
and 2014 (84). In addition, over the last decade, fewer adolescents today in numerous applications, including insulation, textile,
perceive "moderate" or "regular" use of marijuana as a health cement, and roofing (93). Although the mechanisms involved
risk (85, 86). As the association between smoked cannabis and in asbestos-associated diseases are complex and the molecular
lung cancer is still undefined and marijuana use is prevalent, more pathways involved are not fully established, direct and indirect
research will be required in the future to characterize the associ- cellular and molecular effects likely contribute to lung cancer
ation between smoked cannabis and risk of lung cancer and for etiology, including oxidative stress, chronic inflammation,
other diseases. genetic and epigenetic alterations, and cellular toxicity and
fibrosis (94). A meta-analysis of 14 case–control studies con-
Radon ducted in Europe and Canada that included 17,705 lung cancer
Because tobacco smoking is a potent and prevalent risk factor, cases and 21,813 controls found ever-exposure to asbestos was
secondary causes of lung cancer are often diminished in perceived associated with a 24% increased risk in men and 12% increased
importance. However, there are numerous other exposures that risk in women (95). There are substantial synergistic effects (96)
are causally linked to lung cancer risk. Radon is an invisible, between asbestos exposure and tobacco smoking on lung
odorless, tasteless radioactive gas that is found in soil and pro- cancer risk and morality (95, 97, 98).
duced naturally during the radioactive decay of thorium and The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) eval-
uranium. All humans are exposed to radon gas and there are uates carcinogenicity for a wide range of human exposures. Agents
substantial geographic variations globally and throughout the classified as "carcinogenic to humans" (Group 1; ref. 99) that have
United States. Worldwide, 3% to 14% of lung cancers are attrib- sufficient evidence of causing lung cancer in humans include
uted to radon exposure and the variance is attributed to geo- numerous occupational-related exposures, including arsenic,
1572 Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 28(10) October 2019 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Cancer Progress and Priorities: Lung Cancer
beryllium, cadmium, chromium, and diesel exhaust, and specific reported a 57% increased risk (106). However, such findings
occupations, including aluminum production, coal gasification, should be interpreted with caution because reverse causality
coke production, underground hematite mining, iron and steel cannot be ruled out as pulmonary infections can be a result of a
founding, painting, and rubber production (reviewed in ref. 100). weakened immune system due to lung cancer (104). Further-
more, the timing of a pneumonia diagnosis can coincide with
History of noninfectious-related respiratory diseases or confound the diagnosis of lung cancer, and pneumonia may
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which be a complication of lung cancer such as postobstructive
includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis, is an irreversible pneumonia (114).
chronic inflammatory condition that leads to fixed narrowing of Chlamydia pneumonia (C. pneumoniae) is the most commonly
small airways and alveolar wall destruction. The long-standing occurring intracellular bacterial pathogen and is responsible for
inflammatory reaction in the bronchi is accompanied by a con- sinusitis, pharyngitis, and pneumonia (115). Its transmission
tinual cycle of injury and repair and therefore could play a key role occurs via respiratory secretions and may increase risk of lung
in lung carcinogenesis. In the United States, over 15 million cancer through mediators of inflammation similar to those
people reported ever receiving a diagnosis of COPD in 2015 and speculated for pneumonia (116) as described above. A meta-
is the third leading cause of death after heart disease and can- analysis (117) of 12 studies, including 2,595 lung cancer cases
cer (101). Tobacco smoking is the major risk factor for and 2,585 controls, reported that C. pneumoniae infection was
COPD (102), so it is expected to find a positive association associated with a 1.5-fold increased risk of lung cancer.
lung cancer was the second common individual cancer type whereas EGFR and HER2 mutations and the ALK-ELM4 fusion are
(11.6%), and lung cancer risk was elevated 2-fold. more common among LCANS (144). Revealing and understand-
ing differences at the molecular level among LCANS may identify
Other lifestyle factors the etiologic processes involved in tumorigenesis and reveal
There is also compelling evidence that other factors may be important therapeutic strategies for targeting key oncogenic
associated with an increased risk of lung cancer for both smokers events. As such, the National Cancer Institute has launched
and never smokers, including poor diet and low body mass "Sherlock Lung: A Molecular Epidemiologic Study of Lung Cancer in
index (128–136). Never Smokers" (145), with the goal of tracing lung cancer etiology
in never smokers by analyzing molecular data in conjunction with
Inherited genetics histologic features to develop an integrated molecular, histologic,
In 2004, the Genetic Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Consortium and radiologic classification of LCANS.
revealed the first evidence for a major susceptibility locus influ-
encing lung cancer risk to a region on 6q23–25 (137). With the
arrival of genome-wide association (GWA) studies about 17 years Prevention
ago, it is now possible to interrogate the human genome more Most lung cancers are preventable and could be mitigated by
comprehensively for associations between inherited single- reducing smoking initiation among adolescents and increasing
nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and human disease. GWA smoking cessation among adults. Fortunately, smoking rates have
1574 Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 28(10) October 2019 Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Cancer Progress and Priorities: Lung Cancer
Current smokers
1,000
60-64
800
Death rate per 100,000
400 50-54
200 40-49
30-39
Never smokers
Figure 10.
Lung cancer mortality by smoking status. Lung cancer mortality (per 100,000) among current smokers, former smokers, and never smokers based on published
figures that were adapted from Halpern and colleagues (ref. 147; J Natl Cancer Inst 1993;85:457–464). Former smokers are presented by age-at-quit.
cessation interventions for individuals who enter a lung cancer substantial beneficial mortality reductions associated with
screening program. Novel smoking cessation strategies tailored LDCT screening.
to the lung cancer screening setting will likely amplify the
survivorship gains expected from screening alone (153).
Despite the conclusive benefits shown by the NLST and the Future Directions
recommendations and implementation of lung cancer screening Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been
in the United States, European nations have not yet issued made across the cancer control continuum in terms of etiology,
similar recommendations because of the absence of proven prevention, early detection, diagnosis, treatment, survivorship,
benefit in randomized clinical trials conducted in Europe (154). and end of life; however, lung cancer is still a major public
However, in 2018 the initial results of the Nederlands-Leuvens health burden globally and in the United States. Etiologically,
Longkanker Screenings ONderzo ek (NELSON) trial (155) were concerted efforts are needed to identify causal risk factors for
presented at the 19th World Conference on Lung Cancer of the lung cancer among never smokers and to identify never smo-
International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer and kers at the greatest risk for lung cancer who perhaps can benefit
indicated significant reductions in lung cancer mortality. from a lung cancer screening program. In addition, the impact
Moreover, two additional randomized trials conducted in of marijuana and e-cigarettes on lung cancer risk needs to be
Italy (156) and Germany (157) were published in 2019 clarified. From a prevention standpoint, additional research is
providing additional confirmation of lung cancer screening needed to identify potential agents that can reduce lung cancer
efficacy. The Multicentric Italian Lung Detection (MILD) tri- risk especially among former smokers. Precision-based risk and
al (156), in which 4,099 participants ages 49 to 75 years with screening should be explored to identify individuals who
a smoking history of 20 pack-years were prospectively would benefit most from entering a lung cancer screening
randomized to undergo LDCT screening for a median period program. Advancements in screening technology and biomar-
of 6 years (n ¼ 2,376) or to a control arm with no screening kers in the screening setting could reduce false positives and
intervention (n ¼ 1,723). Landmark analysis that considered overdiagnosis and improve nodule management. Further
only individuals alive with no lung cancer diagnosis after research is needed on the feasibility and efficacy of providing
5 years from randomization revealed a 58% reduction in lung smoking cessation treatment in the lung cancer screening
cancer mortality and a 32% reduction in all-cause mortality setting. Biomarkers that are highly predictive of negative
after the fifth year of screening. The German Lung cancer responses to targeted therapies and immunotherapy are a
Screening Intervention (LUSI), a randomized trial (157) of significant unmet clinical need because there are subgroups of
4,052 long-term smokers ages 50 to 69 years comparing five patients who may not respond to these specific treatments.
annual rounds of LDCT screening (n ¼ 2,029) versus a control This is particularly salient in the subsets of patients that may
arm without screening (n ¼ 2,023), found a 26% reduction in experience treatment-induced rapid disease progression, which
lung cancer mortality over an average observation time of can be rapid and lethal. Finally, more research is needed to
8.8 years after randomization. The cumulative evidence based personalize treatment plans that minimize adverse survivor-
on the results of the NLST, the MILD trial, the LUSI trial, and ship issues and lead to improved quality of life for lung cancer
anticipated publication of the NELSON trial has demonstrated survivors.
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