36 7    Vol.36, No.

7
2016 7 Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice July, 2016

doi: 10.12011/1000-6788(2016)07-1633-10 : F830.9 : A

 ” 
“  
  , ,

  Æ 
 &      !"# $%
( , 510640)

'( )*Æ+,-./012*3  4  4 
“ ” “ ” ,

&5678 9:;<=>?@A*BCD% &EFG*H

, . 1998 1 2014 4

IJDKL MKL8NO?;PQR KLS TUVWX/Y !Z[D EFG

,

*BCD  \]=^  4 _`aT KLbcdefghiD

. : ,

Xjbfkl mn]=^  4 _jbo p qr *stuv

( 1 ) ; ,

wZ[D xEFGy6z o{D 

( 5 ) . ,

 * ) IJD8N |}~

, .
; ; ; ;

Analysis of nonlinear structure of financial policy goals based on

trilemma

ZHANG Qun, ZHANG Weiguo, LI Jiaming

(School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China)

Abstract This paper proposes a bondage-based structural model that is derived from the trilemma
constraint among the monetary, foreign exchange and securities markets. It introduces a foreign exchange
intervention index to explore a new market landscape and regulatory strategies. Based on the differential
evolution algorithm and its application to the data from January 1998 to April 2014, it presents the
estimated nonlinear systems among the three policy goals of monetary independence, foreign exchange
intervention and capital account openness. The analysis results show the existence of equilibrium and
the local structural stability of systems by the system dynamics approach. Capital account openness
and monetary independence are in proximity to moderate levels after a short-term evolution (about 1
year). It could lock-in into different proportions in the long-term evolution (about 5 years) for its sensitive
dependence on initial conditions. In addition, China has the policy preference in the predominance of
exchange rate stability while the capital openness could be the leading indicator to affect their proportions.
Keywords trilemma; monetary policy; foreign exchange reserves; nonlinear dynamics; macro prudence

1 
   , Æ  .
 ,     . ,    “ 
”,  “”.  ,    ,  

   Æ    
: 2015-04-07
   
       
: (1989–), , , , , : ; (1963–), , , , ,

 
, : , E-mail: wgzhang@scut.edu.cn; (1991–), , , , ,

    Æ 

: .
: ( ) (11&ZD156);
Foundation item: Major Tender of National Social Science Foundation of China (11&ZD156); Supported by the Guangzhou

!"#$        

Financial Service Innovation and Risk Management Research Base
: , , . “ ” [J]. , 2016, 36(7):

%!"#$
1633–1642.
: Zhang Q, Zhang W G, Li J M. Analysis of nonlinear structure of financial policy goals based on trilemma[J].
Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2016, 36(7): 1633–1642.
1634   36

  .  ,     ! , "#

!   . [1]

   ",   !" ## “ ”, 

!$ %$ !". #$$, % 2014 %%&%
  , '% & ()  '&' . &(!
!"Æ#!, ! $!*)"#(+ %$ "*%.  , 2015  8 #
11  , “+& &&'” )*-,+, -'% $ 2015  6
# ,'' (%)(,  ) +& ("!, %$& *. , 
.+,  /'-()01)% "*-23.
#$.)*./0, *  +4 /1* 0./+1,0
-2*.+, 510! *-2,. - #+./6, 207/8+8 
4, 301 12", .  , 023!/-9 [2]

Æ../3 /  ,  #$4 334 23.   0, 5

. "6  * 0*034 “311%7”  /4, :4845 ; “62
593<” “746783/#”  “9#”   . - “9#” , *  =8
[3−4]

,0 :;. 35. 9 >?  ",021 65 5

6, 7 = :96Æ   0  , $<0 : 
8; . Krugman ;  “=7$” 869 " 29)  210
[4]

-:; 8.
7::;8 " %< , Aizenman  @1# “#” >; 170 =
[5−6]

8% ?>, 8 3:   1990 @ 2010  “#” >;- 89 “9#” ;Æ?<,

:Æ=A.. B%AC<  >D 1994 @ 2000 
[7]
  
)3<, : 3 “9#”  =B, @AC- ;<!=   "
*<?. ..+=;5 ", ;EAD> > : ;< B 9 "6Æ0-,
[8]

@ 6Æ  "E&!4 . Dominguez  :  [9]

F' >F!+ ;< =F'CF!+D?/G. , , H E@ 2014 

<.F! ;< (3.843 IG=9) *>?HI0=@/, J H   !
@H5" *& “#” >;H =B . , K+& FJ.8, H * 
[10]

@ $,  +, :9GA +&  2,'-A>H. IKE, 

B!?&%9@JL, H 170 L" *A M . B [11]

8 4C:5 .H  %< , Chang  @ K'D /# (DSGE) > :

[12]

$K!&. &A E3L. Fernald  7@ '#.M [13]

MB/# (FAVAR) 3:  %.F5B<  @ CN!(,

,H  ?GCH*  N:4".
0.9, “9#” = DH 8  &*- ;COP DQ, 
“# ” > ; =     ; C  " I*. , , *! ? >  R .? 9 D Q H 
=B,  "@R.4MB8> @ CN,0.+, @N!?>= DH
#  GM />>   Æ. , ..  &4 A9
 JD ;<*->DDQ.  ,  K 0, OE.. “9#” ;  
&- “EE” *-/#, B “EE” +=FG4$L8  &FS . >-A
4%B0, 1# *G ;< >, BBM>8P% 1998 @ 2014 HH
;5FT I4Æ4 , 8 )B -84%> / />D Æ8*- N
J. >G0, "?MO:  8  E&!OP5GKU, 8&Q+.OP
4*- ; 8 Æ HOP*-)*, PIH!./@ :$
&J../; .. ! ;<, "5 Q @ V(Q# W
"23.
 7 , R:  “”  1635

2 &': ())*+,-*+, “.-” /.

OP “9#”  /# , J4+XK :96Æ 
  '%  >H, @L4+RD8 Y 29) 
!B !M/ 03<+L, /- “EE” FS . SNT
?L “EE”  , US M. “EE” *-I . W" K, B
.@7 )T ICH2,  , @8 OP0UI 
CBCHV +& /1N,..   , R  
“EE” *-.
P.,0FG4$, OK    &RD4 ;Q=-
“EE”  *- , F S  8  4 = 8   &    &       & 
“R2”  . S 1 .K, +. J? - “EE”, 2:    5R29
240;  . L , R:V Z@8/?GKU+J?
 .
䇱ࡨᐲ൪
˄䍴ᵜᔰ᭮ᓖ˅
ؑᓖ

䍗ᐱ
Ⲵ㖞

Ⲵ䈳
≷⦷

㢲ᙗ

䍗ᐱᐲ൪
˄䍗ᐱ᭯ㆆ ཆ≷ᐲ൪

0 102345123 64 75
Ⲵ⤜・ᙗ˅ 䍴ᵜⲴ⍱ࣘᙗ ˄≷⦷Ⲵっᇊᙗ˅

1 “ ”
 *-/#, K D1L; 1:
C = f (x1 , x2 , x3 , t) (1)

, C =;, x1 K6Æ, x2 K :9, x3 K  , t = &, f = 

4L;. Aizenman  Sengupta .. “9#”  >DM.4 (1)  C = 2t =MÆ Sf
[6]

=4L; O, 3: “9#” .;Æ M. O “EE” *-.

=/SÆ x1, x2 , x3 Æ., I*INTU>4 % [14], A9W!46<7
Æ4 : ⎧ 3 3  3
⎪  
⎪ dx1 =
⎪ a x + b1,i,j xi xj + c1
⎪
⎪ dt
1,i i
⎪
⎪ i=1 i=1 j=i
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎨ dx 3 3  3
2
= a2,i xi + b2,i,j xi xj + c2 (2)
⎪
⎪ dt
⎪
⎪ i=1 i=1 j=i
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ 3 3  3
⎪
⎪ dx3
⎩ = a3,i xi + b3,i,j xi xj + c3
dt i=1 i=1 j=i

3 ()8798,:8.9;<=>?
3.1 @:;<
.. # >; -A41 >XK  “EE” *-4  x1 , x2 , x3 >.
A=B>C DA=?E@F
[5]
“ ” , (2)
3.1.1 (ERS) (F EI)
!=1G W!!)O, 6Æ 1G!!@"HI. 
6Æ.X " 6Æ "6ÆT[ %V'3L0-.
1636   36

 “9#”  /#, x >=:1

0.01
ERS = .
0.01 + σΔ log(e)
, e K", σ K Δ log(e) M. ERS 5"=A [0, 1] , ERS "/A 3
Δ log(e)
6Æ/P.
, , =Æ 0YTMUW0,  ! F@X ;< 6Æ
, 1# #>; (F EI) != x >. W"TPQ1=:
[15]
1
ηΔR
F EI = .
Δe + ηΔR
, ΔR K ;<.", Δe K.", η = σσ K. ;<.Z Δe

.  , # F EI "= 1 , %#$, TMÆ. #"A. 1 +L. 1 , %#

ΔR

:A. #"= 0 , %#$A, % R.

3.1.2 AB CD G HC (M I)
:9.X "#J0-, \PYE!A 0-. x2 >=:
corr(ii , ij ) − (−1)
MI = 1 − .
1 − (−1)
 , ii K B, ij K. B, corr(ii , ij ) K ii ij  ;. M I 5"=A
 "/A 3 :9/P.
IJ
[0, 1] , M I
3.1.3 F GH (KO)
 .X "=P0 3YZ P0' 8%H! 10-. Chinn
 Ito ; B Chinn-Ito >  . Aizenman  Sengupta[6] -A7 Chinn-Ito >+
[16]

=< ! >, \V V & V 7 MII GDP 7". S x3 FB9

>, W"TPQ1=:
KO =
7 MI .
GDP
, KO 5"=A [0, 1] , KO "/A 3 /P.
3.2 F K LMDFNOP
=Q ]5JT;5^QFT  “EE” *-, .OZ [6] .:_;
5, :5 1998  1 #9 2014  3 #;5_;5, >W">I# 1 .K. ;5
W.[7`W;5V.
[ \aU\[R (F EI)
K 1 0 L3 1 Q RSTU
b[VW (M I) \cWX (KO)
]  X[ Y Y dS Z ea [ ]] f ^ g \[ (IB0007) _Z
\a`a ][^^^g\[ LIBOR Y 3 \ GDP
Rh_ TXRh TXRh iXRh
4 <
M NOPQ VWXY Z R
4.1 @ [ \]
:S T
b_>TPQ1,  F EI  M I ;5U5#". .B0]57 MI GDP
_;5, SBBc"4%U5 KO #".  >>X59 195 P;5.  + >,
F EI  1998  1 #9 2014  4 #!&! `", >X 2006  6 #2007  11 #2008  1
#2008  6 2010  10 # 2011  4 #. >-A41a, J+& =9B%
 ;<U4M;" ^!2.
`S`"C, BBB$M4% [5−6,17] + 59 F EI ERS W"", jS 2. ,
ERS " _ [0.8, 1] ,     U ]0V>U" T [ 6 Æ . 7: K, F EI
U+=, = 2005 )CAWMÆ"0b,, 7 ERS +0"  
6Æ. , J8X ;<=#X , >Æ. .. , =d.C(
 7 , R:  “”  1637

> >? ;< GM-8 , 15 F EI U , , ;5=A:5 3

>;?k>59 4 $ÆY&, S 3 .K.
1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

2013ᑈ1᳜
2013ᑈ7᳜
2014ᑈ1᳜
2014ᑈ7᳜
2010ᑈ7᳜
2011ᑈ1᳜
2011ᑈ7᳜
2012ᑈ1᳜
2012ᑈ7᳜
2008ᑈ1᳜
2008ᑈ7᳜
2009ᑈ1᳜
2009ᑈ7᳜
2010ᑈ1᳜
2002ᑈ7᳜

2006ᑈ1᳜
2006ᑈ7᳜
2007ᑈ1᳜
2007ᑈ7᳜
1998ᑈ7᳜
1999ᑈ1᳜
1999ᑈ7月

2001ᑈ7᳜
2002ᑈ1᳜

2003ᑈ1᳜
1998ᑈ1᳜

2000ᑈ1᳜
2000ᑈ7᳜
2001ᑈ1᳜

2003ᑈ7᳜
2004ᑈ1᳜
2004ᑈ7᳜
2005ᑈ1᳜
2005ᑈ7᳜
0 ^ _` ^ _ a bÆ
FEI ERS

3VW 2 1998 1 2014 3 F EI ERS

S 3 k> 4 Æ , >X=:  1998  1 #9 2005  5 # "MÆ 8%#
, 2005  6 #9 2008  8 #:A^U, 2008  9 #9 2010  4 # "MÆ 8%
#,  2010  5 #9 2014  4 #L^U. k>  F "AZl
:=M, \: 2005  7 # 21 ,  KH V =9_`)=R. 2008  7
# 10 , ac` +&d%Æ4C, [9\. 2010  6 #, *P]?/Y=AaA@ea9
/ 20 ^Y, H *P/a@.! =/Y.
阶段 1 阶段 2 阶段 3 阶段 4
1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
2004年1月
2003年1月
2003年7月

2010年7月
2001年7月
2002年1月
2002年7月

2009年1月
2009年7月
2010年1月
1998年1月

2000年7月
2001年1月

2008年1月
2008年7月
1999年7月
2000年1月

2004年7月

2007年7月

2011年1月

2013年7月
2014年1月
2014年7月
2012年7月
2013年1月
1998年7月
1999年1月

2005年1月
2005年7月
2006年1月
2006年7月
2007年1月

2011年7月
2012年1月

cC[YZ[SdeD0 \] ^ _` ^ _10QL3VWbÆ
FEI MI KO

3 1998 1 2014 3
4.2 X
=V0/  > @7U &Æ , S 4 K V$^  F EI
M I . KO PS, 8_3:  >&m/ =4 . MI
1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

FEI
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0 4 1998 ^ _` ^ _ a 1 2014 3 F EI MI _ f KO 3`a 0

1638   36

=859B"+=R *-+=Db4 *-, @LEU>4 1 (2) fVb ; ;

c4 477;, )BTPc$de] W!`d0-M>8P% 8% [18]

U4. P% L;LEel K=:

N

min [xk (t) − (xk (t − 1) + ẋk (t))]2 , k = 1, 2, 3
t=2
s.t. ak,i ≤ 2, bk,i,j ≤ 2, i = 1, 2, 3, j = 1, 2, 3.
, x (t) = t S; k .0f", k = 1, 2, 3; ẋ (t) = t − 1 S ; k ..M"f
k k
", k = 1, 2, 3; a  b =4 (2)  ;; N =PI.
k,i k,i,j

U4 , .e .FT, K':5 80% ;5!=8fP, aU 20% !="P.

P%b4);= 10000 ), /b ;= 200. 2  k = 1, 2, 3 >X  x , x , x FT*A, \ 1 2 3
F EI M I KO 8Æ4  ;". e  4 /$gFT*A, ScT59 4 ∗ 4 ∗ 4 = 64
/T . 3  8.FT*AWM". , 8fP 4WM"AL"  .FT
Æ4 F;58f0-, "P 4WM"AL"  f0-.
K 2 gbcd3ef7g
cg d a a a
k,1 b k,2b b k,3 b b b
k,1,1c k,1,2 k,1,3 k,2,2 k,2,3 k,3,3 k

1 −0.6159 0 0 −0.6469 0 0 0 0 0 0.3395

2 −0.2224 0.5968 0 0 −1.5909 0 0 0 0 0.0966
k=1
3 0 0.5964 0 −0.2407 −1.5842 0 0 0 0 0.0468
4 −0.1641 0.5326 0 −0.1854 −1.4226 0 0 0 0 0.1024

1 0 −1.1391 0 0 0 0 0.2283 0 0 0.5221

2 −1.4197 −1.6763 0 0 1.9505 0 0 0 0 1.0312
k=2
3 0 −1.0739 0 0 0 −0.4890 0 0.4532 0 0.5472
4 −1.5501 −1.5326 0 0.4149 1.5739 0 0 0 0 1.0182

1 0 0 0.0870 0 0 −1.0287 0 0 0 0.1170

2 0.0413 0 0.1385 0 0 −1.1579 0 0 0 0.1008
k=3
3 0.0765 0 0 0 0 −1.2779 0 0 0.2109 0.1172
4 0.0778 0 0.0030 0 0 −1.2840 0 0 0.2103 0.1165

d 1
K 3 bcd3ef h
d 2 g d 3 d 4
g h
cg hh\ nih\ hh\ nih\ hh\ nih\ hh\ nih\
g ei_ ei_ ei_ ei_ ei_ ei_ ei_ ei_
k=1 0.0700 0.1029 0.0657 0.1001 0.0657 0.1024 0.0655 0.1009
k=2 0.2026 0.2356 0.1978 0.2378 0.2013 0.2455 0.1974 0.2385
k=3 0.1599 0.1096 0.1599 0.1093 0.1596 0.1118 0.1596 0.1118

=YTj#8f>HW!:]f0-, 7:09*A , gk:5"P 4WM"

L*A, (6e8fP 4⎧WM"AL, $i59 3 WM"$L4 .
⎪ ẋ = −0.2224x1 + 0.5968x2 − 1.5909x1x2 + 0.0966
⎨ 1
 1:
⎪
⎩
ẋ2 = −1.4197x1 − 1.6763x2 + 1.9505x1x2 + 1.0312 (3)
ẋ3 = 0.0413x1 + 0.1385x3 − 1.1579x1x3 + 0.1008
⎧
⎪ ẋ = −0.2224x1 + 0.5968x2 − 1.5909x1x2 + 0.0966
⎨ 1
 2:
⎪
⎩
ẋ2 = −1.4197x1 − 1.6763x2 + 1.9505x1x2 + 1.0312 (4)
ẋ3
= 0.0870x1 + 1.0287x1x3 + 0.1170
⎧
⎪ x˙ = −0.2224x1 + 0.5968x2 − 1.5909x1x2 + 0.0966
⎨ 1
 3:
⎪
⎩
x˙2 = −1.5501x1 − 1.5326x2 + 0.4149x21 + 1.5739x1x2 + 1.0182 (5)
x˙3 = 0.0413x1 + 0.1385x3 − 1.1579x1 x3 + 0.1008
 7 , R:  “”  1639

4.3 cC ijCk l
X j k
0  81a, x1, x2 , x3 Æ.o%d U: ."4, Q%-E
&46<7. 7: 8 ;p "AL , . x1  x3 , 47 Æ.
747A. S 5 *-S8 X  1 *- x1 , x2, x3 -3fEE . W" K,
F EI I_, o!dG M I 5, @!:4&6<7G. e, .C
F EI "Q@ lKU M I KO ". I_, F EI M I KO .c- W
!4 Æ .
FEI
FEI .增加额1
+ -
0.0966
-1.5909 *MI

- 1.9505 *FEI
MI -1.1579 *FEI .
MI .增加额2
- +
KO
1.0312
KO增加额3
.
+

0 mn 375o0
0.1008

5 1
+8BB -84%>D 4 -8(. fk, 8 4 81?
ÆIj=A% ?!6Æ. 4  8 % ?W"", K ÆIj%
?.  ". , )B Wolf P% >XTP8 ;k gf>;X *-6Æ
[19]

. .  1 % ? P ,  M I " −0.1174 _ÆIj [0, 1] E , S (8?9?6Æ.

11
.% ? P , J.  "gL. 0, e  1  3 ;k gf>;EL. 0, 3 
12
E6Æe P 6Æ, \ P LRjhN?Æ Z .N P . / N% ?Æ
12 12 12
%=8 3 W!E*-6Æ. Ig/,  2 % ? P  E6Æ. -,  3  22
3 % ?g ÆIj, : ;k gf>;EL. 0, _3FT59 (, E6Æ.

iqd Zrj
K 4 0l 1 pqmnr mn3bÆ
Ylmmn ohhk[R
 1 hp l qr [0, 1] i
P11 (0.7448, −0.1174, 0.1817)
−0.3116; −0.8762; −1.0965
3

−0.4076, −1.0984, −0.8756

P12 (0.3876, 0.5226, 0.3763)

 2 hplqr [0, 1] i −0.3131; −0.8762; −1.0965

P21 (0.7448, −0.1174, 0.1723) 3

−0.3117, −1.0984, −0.8756

P22 (0.3876, 0.5226, 0.3753)
hplqr [0, 1] i
P31 (3.3801, −0.1370, 0.0636) 3

 3 hplqr [0, 1] i −0.3117; −0.8671; −1.0947

P32 (0.8737, −0.1232, 0.1567) 3

hplqr [0, 1] i
P33 (0.3877, −0.5200, 0.3763) 3

(4, S 3  4 ÆY& N$ &>"!=8.i$", - 2014  4 #!= 

5 i$ &8%f, 5 3)K   1 *-8 >Æ., S 6 @S 10 K 1
 N$ &ÆIjÆ%=.   2   3 *-*AIg59.
K5 1 5 mn 7 s1 tu v wx s g bÆ
0o p q 2 3 o
sm 1 jijf: sm 2 jijf: sm 3 jijf: sm 4 jijf: sm 5 jijf:
[ 19981 2005  6  2008  9  2010  5  2014  4 
F EI nk 1540 lk 0 nk 700 lk 0 nk 890 lk 0 nk 1200 lk 1 nk 630 lk 0
MI nk 530 lk 1 nk 580 lk 0 nk 410 lk 1 nk 810 lk 0 nk 460 lk 0
KO nk 180 lk 1 nk 210 lk 0 nk 200 lk 1 nk 220 lk 1 nk 180 lk 0
S 6 @S 10 ÆS.K, -,8>8 Æ i$" , :ALb4 12 )Cg 6
Æ.N% ? P ", 12 4 % ?TP*Ao. \ = F EI ".. 0.3876, M I "
.. 0.5226, KO ".. 0.3753. , , ALb4 60 )C, 8 > $s$% ? P , W! i 12
$"> r/. L , 7: 5  KO F EI b4);a, KO 7 M I +c89 0 +
1640   36

1 , F EI ":$ &T 0.3876 hN. (4,  5 .fÆS =: 8>"

b4 15 )C..% ?, :$ & (Lb4 62 )) C,   #  GA  
:9 %m.
1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

t t
0 500 1000 1500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

0 mn u ^ _yw3gb0
6
1.0
1 1998 1 0 mn u ^ _yw3gb0
7
1.0
1 2005 6

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

t t
0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

0 mn u ^ _yw3gb0
8 1 2008 9
1.0
0 mn u ^ _yw3gb0
9 1 2010 5

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

t
0 100 200 300 400 500 600

0 mn u ^ _yw3gb0
10 1 2014 4
09*Aa, FT594 / 8  &l# l = 4
 “EE”  , X Æ 8>Æ. . -8  3: 8>"AL 1
 (b4 12 )) EC$6Æ, L 5  (b4 60 )) C$j( 6Æ. H!..6Æ"(
XH!f, : .W!i"kp3f*A QÆ 3 $! f
. L , 8>"X   Æ0U]. E6Æ% ? P  P >" 3 12 22
:9  "N..*%, #>:$ &T6Æ" 
3 V>U". “6Æ” G/8T[. (4,  5 .f F EI Æ. 7 lN$
?+c/s$6Æ", _3 %! %m #./. L , 7: 5 8b4); :
 0:c/89  + qn?<, 30 J: .m.M. R28
 , gk*G-  != >&!7>t>.
5 “ .-” /.zs{,tu7|
..09   Æ/1>d, 9J. #>.+ tH,  “EE” FG
*-4$; r=lu(+6Æ., Jm 4+.
1) 565GKU, YT*- 2-nn.
>D*A* 38  E&!H! (L 1 )$! (L 5 ) *-4 ,
--5 ?G !Yl# l KU. I ?GoB
 7 , R:  “”  1641

, \  BB+& 7 sICH8# + ,  ]5BM Mn"

B , o@  ) , 8 1 A@/V' 6Æ.
 , 6Æ.. Y Hp5 R0-, BB “EE”  A9oE!'@
Y4M./ (+. H!5q9ptV' GM ,p5
ut, $!0@q@JD!?GKU W!29!BG. , SU
8(+B(+ (+ , @ Jo q(+?L, v]qM(+r1C.
 lM S  5U.,  M JS 
U2!B. W"*-NJ0, c?d%Y#2,0a%YEr, 5r ps 
(+"'- “A 0q” RrQ;  d% = $  #ZA$Ers
:9 R&; vYw<#$RÆ., t8Er'-&8I, GrNTYT1
t &r&Æ ix.
2) D6Æ', U0uJR,0!X.
>D*A* 38 ÆW!i"kp3f$! f, 8>  NJ
  Æ/1()X: 8 H!Æ=5U, ::$ &CZs
$E% ? ..  /1. , :4"Ig, .I) aAEr&
vw?G', 5 r=@YU0"&0"4!B A ". U
#$4 7D H .+,0E! , H! (L 1 ) $! (L 5 ) $*uU[20]

0" %<i$!7.
 , 6Æ..% H!6Æ $!6Æ , @s)*gU0
"I 41t6,0. W" K, H!B8%21 6e $!B, v&tY
BBB-I -I 3va(+, -A w!XtH. 8 @%6uw !c
v? K , +& *1-@8!V 4M"V 4., @wx
>t/1GI 48#Q  '. S E , 5  W  vw  
/1uw $?, uvx-I  W>!,  >dY  4M.
3) ;<wGÆM -, /x%.
  7  ,  1 ./. 35  5 .f F EI 
Æ. , %!%m #./. 1,, "$!#syZ ;P#, @
;<)x $Q6Æ$!%. $s, $  @+o< 7
sI+& FoÆ . 35- “EE”  , =Q H :;;5A"
 :9, F5+=@J JH )* x,./. Rey ;  “5 [21]

9#” () 3: \ 7 !  , x W<Æ@J, w :9

.
 , 6Æ..+ ]  n"R2 , < GA 
;<=X#. 4+, c    , zx9 !( V
,  8+ & A yP v  0W W T B, ; y+ &  C  Æ  B B, uX
8/8+& F. L4+, WKJ., u?yU@ 7 l +& z+&
F !, 8 qy ÆHV yj)*. , BB%<&% ;<@/8%
< fP , 8 uX8/ @3s ;< 8%1.
[22]

 , @xtH{9, GA ;<=X# Hu 6Æ 8, 

V 1B>M3421W6e:9 Z. Æi"
kp3f 3, /BG= "+=z"41. J5 "D.+ “EE” /, D
b/;ÆQ " /#vU, F5$=1J.:;, {5/P@{a "
 “|z”.
z }~
[1] Xu C. The fundamental institutions of China’s reforms and development[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,
1642   36

2011, 49(4): 1076–1151.

[2] Hubrich K, Tetlow R J. Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises[J]. Journal of
Monetary Economics, 2015, 70: 100–115.
[3] Mundell R A. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates[J]. Canadian
Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1963, 29(4): 475–485.
[4] Krugman P. The eternal triangle: Explaining international financial perplexity[EB/OL]. [2015-10-16]. http://web.
mit.edu/krugman/www, 1998.
[5] Aizenman J, Chinn M D, Ito H. Assessing the emerging global financial architecture: Measuring the trilemma’s
configurations over time[R]. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.
[6] Aizenman J, Sengupta R. Financial trilemma in China and a comparative analysis with India[J]. Pacific Economic

wZ x| b[a[lzy yz{}
Review, 2013, 18(2): 123–146.
[7] , . [J]. , 2002(5): 30–35.
Xie P, Zhang X P. Three times of conflict between monetary policy and exchange rate policy[J]. International

z { }\{l\a`a{| z{
Economic Review, 2002(5): 30–35.
[8] , . [J]. , 2009(8): 27–36.
Li W, Zhang Z C. An analytical framework of China foreign exchange reserves: Based on financial stability and
appropriate scale[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2009(8): 27–36.
[9] Dominguez K M E, Hashimoto Y, Ito T. International reserves and the global financial crisis[J]. Journal of
International Economics, 2012, 88(2): 388–406.
[10] Wu T. De facto index of monetary policy domestic activism and inefficient trilemma configurations in Oecd
countries[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2015, 20(2): 97–113.
[11] Rose A K. Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies[J]. Journal of International Money
and Finance, 2014, 49: 5–27.
[12] Chang C, Liu Z, Spiegel M M. Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy[J]. Journal of Monetary
Economics, 2015, 74: 1–15.
[13] Fernald J G, Spiegel M M, Swanson E T. Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR
model[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 49: 83–103.

|| ~{| |}| \~}a[}} 

[14] Sprott J C. Some simple chaotic flows[J]. Physical Review E, 1994, 50(2): R647–R650.
[15] , .“ ”, [J]. , 2013(11): 60–73.
Chen C L, Yang Z H. Research on taylor rule, capital account and exchange rate fluctuations[J]. Journal of
Financial Research, 2013(11): 60–73.
[16] Chinn M D, Ito H. What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions[J].
Journal of Development Economics, 2006, 81(1): 163–192.
[17] Aizenman J, Chinn M D, Ito H. The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns
of the trilemma configuration[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29(4): 615–641.
[18] Mohamed A W, Sabry H Z. Constrained optimization based on modified differential evolution algorithm[J].
Information Sciences, 2012, 194: 171–208.
[19] Wolf A, Swift J B, Swinney H L, et al. Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series[J]. Physica D:

Æx~ }}~z{ }~RR~l  

Nonlinear Phenomena, 1985, 16(3): 285–317.
[20] . [J]. , 2013, 33(5): 1135–1140.
Tang X B. Determine China’s business cycle state number and the dimension[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory
& Practice, 2013, 33(5): 1135–1140.
[21] Rey H. Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence[R]. Cambridge,

~ ~ ~ R \a`a\Æ  

MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015.
[22] , , , . [J]. , 2012, 32(10): 2119–2128.
Mao Z J, Cao J, Zhu Q, et al. Foreign exchange reserve combined forecasting method[J]. Systems Engineering
— Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(10): 2119–2128.