38 11     Vol.38, No.

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2018  11  Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice Nov., 2018

doi: 10.12011/1000-6788(2018)11-2831-21 : C93 : A

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On the system dynamic model of innovation upgrading and

combination analysis of feedback and strategy simulation —
Taking innovation and upgrading activities of HELI company
for example
ZHOU Xiaogang1, JIA Renan2 , LI Liqing3 , CHEN Pu1 , HU Hui1
(1. School of Economics and Management, East China Jiao Tong University, Nanchang 330013, China; 2. Institute of Systems
Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; 3. School of Economics and Management,
Jiangxi Science & Technology Normal University, Nanchang 330031, China)

Abstract China is comprehensively promoting the strategy of development through innovation. The
innovation system is a dynamic and complex system. It is essential to make an in-depth simulation study
on how the innovation strategy acts on the system structure and the effect. The six flow rate basic tree
models and equivalent flow graph model are established by setting off association parameter of structural
behavior test method through the analysis of technological innovation activities of Jiangxi Heli Co., Ltd.
A new introduction algorithm of relevant matrix is based on graph theory, which thirty-three feedback
loops of complex systems are obtained. Then, combined with the actual setting of simulation control
parameters change interval, the correlation between feedback structure and strategy simulation is further
analyzed. The results show that the quantitative implementation of three future development strategies

        

-. : 2017-08-14
: (1973–), , , , , , : , E-mail:  
/  
sunnyzhxg@163.com.
:   
(71563011, 71863007, 71473110, 71261018); (15YJC790012)
Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (71563011, 71863007, 71473110, 71261018); Youth Program

0123      

 
:   
for Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (15YJC790012)

 
, , , . SD —— 
4123 [J]. , 2018, 38(11): 2831–2851.
: Zhou X G, Jia R A, Li L Q, et al. On the system dynamic model of innovation upgrading and combination
analysis of feedback and strategy simulation — Taking innovation and upgrading activities of HELI company for example[J].
Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2018, 38(11): 2831–2851.
2832   38

can effectively promote the upgrading of enterprise, which are “to improve the investment and financial
innovation, enhance innovation talents support and deepen cooperation”. It provides decision basis for
science and technology innovation development of the enterprise. System dynamics model building, the
new algorithm of feedback loop, combination analysis of strategy simulation and feedback structure is
proved to be validated and implemented.

Keywords innovation strategy; system dynamics; structural behavior test; combination of feedback
structure and simulation

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 11 , :   SD    2835

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R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣
L1(t) ˄ϛ‫˅ܗ‬
R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t) ˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅

ग़৆ᳳⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣 ߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ ӕϮ߽⍺ⷨথ

ᑈҎഛⷨথ
A11(t) ˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅ ડ಴ᄤA12(t) ᕅડ಴ᄤA13(t)
๲ࡴ㒣䌍C1

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<Time> tab11(t)
<⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄ <ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣 <ӕϮ߽⍺乱
䞣L2(t) ˄Ҏ˅> L3(t) ˄៤ᵰऩԡ˅> L5(t) ˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬

" 4 T1 (t) S,-(T"

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=, A11 (t) UYC. *-#; L2(t) &L6; C1 &G.M; A11 (t)  
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O A (t) ( / ) = tab (time) E
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2836   38

R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t) R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣L1(t)
200 2,000

150 1,500

100 1,000

50 500

0 0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)

" UKLMOPC D OXQY

"R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t)" : L1
"R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣L1(t)" : L1

5 R&D R1 (t) L1 (t)

* T1(t) 71, 19%+78 R2(t), R3 (t), R4 (t), R5 (t), R6(t) ]I1<, 78&L T2(t)
 " T3(t)3@Æ T4(t))WÆ T5(t)*( T6(t) "&;1 <, K< 6 <
7 < 8  R&D . * T1 (t) &L T2 (t)  " T3 (t) 3@ T4 (t) )W T5 (t)
*( T6(t) *5"&;1 .
R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣 ⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄䞣
L1(t) ˄ϛ‫˅ܗ‬ L2(t) ˄Ҏ˅
⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪
R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣 R1(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅ 䞣 R2(t)˄Ҏ/ᑈ˅

ग़৆ᳳⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣 ߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ ӕϮ߽⍺ⷨথ

ᑈҎഛⷨথ
A11(t) ˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅ ડ಴ᄤ A12(t) ᕅડ಴ᄤ A13(t) ग़৆ᳳ⾥ᡔҎਬব ⾥ᡔҎᠡ ⷨথᡩܹᔎᑺ ӕϮ߽⍺ᬊܹ Ҏਬ䱣ᴎᡄࡼ
๲ࡴ㒣䌍 C1
࣪䞣 A21(t) ˄Ҏ/ᑈ˅ ᓩ䖯⥛ C2 ᕅડ಴ᄤA22(t) ᕅડ಴ᄤA23(t) ಴ᄤA24(t)
<TIME STEP>
<Time> tab11(t)
<⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄ <ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣 <ӕϮ߽⍺乱 <⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄ <R&Dⷨথᡩܹ <ӕϮ߽⍺乱
<Time> tab21(t) 䞣 L2(t)˄Ҏ˅> 䞣 L1(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬ L5(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬

" UKOP A>BP P#S,-(T

䞣 L2(t)˄Ҏ˅> L3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ˅> L5(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬

6 R&D T1 (t) X T2 (t)

ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣
ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱
L3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ˅ L4(t)˄ϛ‫˅ܗ‬
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣 R3(t) ˄៤ᵰऩԡ/ᑈ˅ ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱ব࣪䞣R4(t) ˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅

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ᕅડ಴ᄤA31(t) ѻᄺⷨড়԰ᣛ᭄C3
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߯ᮄ៤ᵰѻ
Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍 tab31 䫔ଂব࣪䞣 Ϯ࣪㋏᭄ K 4 ㋏᭄ A42(t)
B31(t) ( ϛ‫ܗ‬/Ҏ) A41(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅

<⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄ <⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄ <R&Dⷨথᡩܹ <ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣

<Time> tab41(t)

" >96I?@ I RÆSP P#S,-(T

䞣 L2(t)˄Ҏ˅> 䞣 L2(t)˄Ҏ˅> 䞣 L1(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬ L3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ˅>

7 T3 (t) X N T4 (t)

ӕϮ߽⍺乱
L5(t)˄ϛ‫˅ܗ‬
ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣R5(t) ˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅

ग़৆ᳳ߽⍺ব࣪ ⾥ᡔ៤ᵰ߽ R&Dⷨথᕅ ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ ᮄѻક䫔ଂᕅ 䫔ଂ߽⍺⊶ࡼ

䞣A51(t) (ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ) ⍺䕀࣪㋏᭄ K 51 ( ϛ ડ಴ᄤA52(t) ᕅડ಴ᄤA53(t) ડ಴ᄤA54(t) ㋏᭄A55(t)
‫ܗ‬/៤ᵰऩԡ)

<Time> <ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣 <R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣 <ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ <ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱

tab51(t) L3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ˅> L1(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬ L6(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/Ҏ˅> L4(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬

ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛L6(t)
˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/Ҏ˅
ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ব࣪䞣 R6(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/Ҏ·ᑈ˅

⾥ᡔҎਬ䋵 R&Dᡩܹᔎᑺ ߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ

⤂㋏᭄K61 ᕅડ಴ᄤA61(t) ડ಴ᄤA62(t)
tab61(t) tab62(t)

<⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄䞣 <R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣 <ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣

L3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ˅>

" 1JÆTP D7ENF P#S,-(T

L2(t)˄Ҏ˅> L1(t)˄ϛ‫>˅ܗ‬

8 T5 (t) X T6 (t)
 11 , :   SD    2837

1978 T (t) 0 T (t) :$*

2) 2 6

4&L6*5 T (t) :$* 2

a. ;7-&L6 L (t) .9, L (t)| = 152 (&).

2 2 t=2010

b. &L-# R (t) *: R (t) = A (t) + L (t) × C × A (t) × A (t) × ST EP (1, 2016) × A (t),
2 2 21 2 2 22 23 24

=, ST EP (1, 2016) :"[9>; C &$(, &$( C = 0.04, 2016 

2 2

ACC3Y 4% &$!$, C :$/?06; d]- A (t) UYC&L-# 2 21

; A (t) . *_!ST=(; A (t) )WST=(; A (t) &L-^e_6. dR-

22 23 24

A (t), A (t), A (t), A (t) :$*K E.

21 22 23 24

5 "6*5 T (t) :$* 3

a.  "6 L (t) .9, L (t)| 3= 12  "K7. 3 t=2010

b.  "-# R (t) * 3

R3 (t) = L2 (t) × K31 × A31 (t) × C3 .

=, L2(t) &L6; K31 &G.", HB6H1,,  K31 = 0.348; /.$
 6 C3 HZ` ^ .5e;A>+ /.$H!6 2 H  *JÆ
(296 SP) B[Y", ' C3 = 1, C3 :$/?06. dR- A31 (t) &G.MST=(,
A31 (t) :$*K E.
63@Æ*5 T4(t) :$*
a. 3@Æ;7 L4 (t) .9, L4 (t)|t=2010 = 9573.87 (SP).
b. 3@Æ-# R4 (t) *:
R4 (t) = A41 (t) + L3 (t) × K4 × ST EP (1, 2016) × A42 (t).
=, K4  "# 6, LHUY3@6H,  K4 = 7.5 (SP/"K7); dR-
A42 (t) 3!\/9 6, LHUY6Ha,  A42 (t)=RANDOM UNIFORM(−1, 3, 2).
dR- A41(t) UY3@Æ-#, A41 (t) :$*K E.
T)W T5(t) :$*
a. )W;7 L5 (t) .9, L5 (t)|t=2010 = 842.85 (SP).
b. )W-# R5 (t) *
R5 (t) = A51 (t) + L3 (t) × K51 × ST EP (1, 2016) × A52 (t) × A53 (t) × A54 (t) × A55 (t).
=, K51 ")W# 6, LHB6H,  K51 = 0.41 (SP/"K7); dR- A51 (t)
UY)W-#; A52 (t)  R&D .ST=(, A53 (t) 3@ÆST=(, A54(t) *(
ST=(; A55(t) )W\/9 6. dR- A51 (t), A52 (t), A53 (t), A54 (t), A55 (t) :$*K E.
U*( T6(t) :$*
a. *(;7 L6 (t) .9, L6 (t)|t=2010 = 6.63 (SP/&).
b. *(-# R6 (t) *: R6 (t) = K61 × L2 (t) × A61 (t) × A62 (t), =, K61 &L5
*(f1 6, LHB6H1,,  K61 = 0.014; dR- A61 (t) . *_!5*
(ST=(, A62 (t)  "5*(ST=(. A61(t), A62 (t) :$*K E.
3) 19$5"*.86*5$&;5<@
45 R&D . * T1(t)&L T2(t) *5$ T1(t)T2 (t) "*.86, $5$&;5<
@, 7D=:$&" CD 5F., %+'&;5<@. N&bg=6, +.
55 R&D . * T1(t)&L T2(t) " T3(t) *5$ T1(t)T2 (t)T3 (t) "*
.86, $5$&;5<@, 7D=:$&" CD 5F., %+'&;5<@. N&bg=
6, +.
65 R&D . * T1(t)&L T2(t) " T3(t)3@Æ T4(t) *5$"*.
86, $5$&;5<@.
2838   38

"*.86
5&*5 T1(t)T2 (t)T3(t)T4 (t) $ T1(t)T2(t) *=: 7)W;(*5 T5(t) ;
7 L5(t), " L5(t) = L5(2025) = 7454 (SP). "*.86C T1(t)T2(t)T3(t)T4(t) 93( :$?
E, 9$5:$.
&;5<@
a.  H  B78 [ T1 (t) T2 (t) T3 (t) T4 (t)  $ " * & ; >C B, CD : " 5
R4 (t) # 2016 C$Y%\ZMa-#.
b. ".86C T4 (t) :$. B:$^Æ (K< 9) :$6H (KL 5).
ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱ব࣪䞣R4(t) ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱ব࣪䞣R4(t)
40,000 40,000

20,000 29,750

0 19,500

-20,000 9,250

-40,000 -1,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)

" INRÆSPOEC OXQY " Z[QHINRÆSPOEC OXQY

" ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱ব࣪䞣R4(t)" : L4 "ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱ব࣪䞣R4(t)" : L4

\A,-D'.EOX&R
9 R4 (t) 10 R4 (t)

E5 R4 (t)
Time(year) 2000 2016 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025
UZ) 1872.22 3027.6 5881.03 1851.29 −8414.39 20464.7 −8567.96
R4 (t) (

c. :$&" CD :"5F.. ^Æ6H:$&": = 2021–2025 WB]-

#, 2021 2024 +, 2023  2025 3@Æh, CD3@Æ-# R (t) 4

Y%\ZM 5F..
H&;5<@71^?, 07"&;:$*, 2SF.*=. 1,F.*
=#&:$* A (t) = RANDOM UNIFORM(−1, 3, 2), =GT1_^e_6 (−1), *N&
42

 2013 UY3@Æh", B 2013 3@Æ[*=#&J

*4+&KF, &$C, !=\X. =*" (−1) & 0. 'E, N& RANDOM UNI-
FORM (−1, 3, 2)  3 D;, `.]g!D;, ^R RANDOM UNIFORM(−1, 3, 2) G+ RANDOM
UNIFORM(0, 2, 1).
G+:$* A (t) = RANDOM UNIFORM(0, 2, 1) C, =_"&; *-, :$&"K< 10.
42

< 10 :$&"X>: 3@Æ-# R (t) \ZM, CD&"F.. T (t) 0 T (t) :$ 4 1 3

&"_ CDF., = A (t) *C, T (t) 0 T (t) %+&;5<@.42 1 4

T5 R&D . * T (t)&L T (t) " T (t)3@Æ T (t))W T (t) *5

1 2 3 4 5

$ T (t)T (t)T (t)T (t)T (t) "*.86, $5$&;5<@, 7D=:$&" CD 5

1 2 3 4 5

F., %+'&;5<@. N&bg=6, +.

U5 R&D . * T (t)&L T (t) " T (t)3@Æ T (t))W T (t)*
1 2 3 4 5

( T (t) *5$ T (t)T (t)T (t)T (t)T (t)T (t) "*.86, $5$&;5<@, 7D
6 1 2 3 4 5 6

=:$&" CD 5F., %+'&;5<@. N&bg=6, +.

1.4.3 H>FPLRSTUHUR
#:$cEB, R T1(t)T2 (t)· · ·T6(t) 5Ri:$, ; ;<1 , K< 11.  
 ;<1 >->H0/8;(;<1 .
&5"*.86&;5<@714.(;<1 71]A-, ^%9 j
*F /`D, @< %;<1 9; 9a;. 05  F
 11 , :   SD    2839

ba, `$F35  0/8&;$52*.5, +$50/83/.

߯ᮄ៤ᵰ
ᕅડA62(t) <Time>
tab62(t) tab11(t)
⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄䞣L2(t)
ग़৆ᳳⷨথᡩ ⷨথᡩܹᔎᑺ
ܹব࣪䞣A11(t) ᕅડ಴ᄤA22(t) Ҏਬ䱣ᴎᡄࡼ
಴ᄤA22(t)
R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t)
<TIME STEP> ग़৆ᳳ⾥ᡔҎ
ᑈҎഛⷨথ ਬব࣪䞣A21(t)
R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣L1(t) ⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪䞣R2(t)
๲ࡴ㒣䌍C1
߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ
ડ಴ᄤA12(t) <TIME STEP> ӕϮ߽⍺ⷨথ <Time> ⾥ᡔҎᠡ
ᕅડ಴ᄤA13(t) ᓩ䖯⥛C2
tab21(t)
ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱L4(t)
Ҏഛ⾥ⷨ㒣䌍B31(t) ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛L6(t)
ᮄѻક䫔ଂ乱ব࣪䞣R4(t) ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ব࣪䞣R6(t) ӕϮ߽⍺ᬊܹ
tab61(t) ᕅડ಴ᄤA23(t)
ग़৆ᳳᮄѻક
Ꮦഎ⊶ࡼ䇗 R&Dᡩܹᔎᑺ
ᭈ㋏᭄A42(t) ߯ᮄ៤ᵰѻ䫔ଂব࣪䞣A41(t)
⾥ᡔҎਬ䋵
ᕅડ಴ᄤA61(t) ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛
⤂㋏᭄K61
Ϯ࣪㋏᭄K 4 R&Dⷨথᕅ ᕅડ಴ᄤA53(t)
tab41(t) 䫔ଂ߽⍺⊶ࡼ
ડ಴ᄤA52(t) ㋏᭄A55(t)
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣L3(t) <Time>
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣R3(t)tab ग़৆ᳳ߽⍺
31 ব࣪䞣A51(t) ӕϮ߽⍺乱L5(t)
Ҏഛ⾥ⷨ៤ᵰ
Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍 tab (t) ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣R5(t)
๲ࡴ䞣K31 ᕅડ಴ᄤA31(t)
51
⾥ᡔ៤ᵰ߽
ѻᄺⷨড়԰ᣛ᭄C3 ⍺䕀࣪㋏᭄K51

ᮄѻક䫔ଂᕅડ

" 6I071J28HK3VWJ"
಴ᄤA54(t)

11

2 6VW]VX 0-1 X^_YYZZ

2.1 H>FPL    RSHIQH> [`"$ T1 (t) T2 (t) · · · Tn (t) 0-1
:;(3*5 T1(t)T2 (t)· · ·Tn(t) "&;<, :;7 LI (t) ;( RJ (t) "a;7, ,
Xij = 0; :;7 LI (t) ;( RJ (t) "a;7, , Xij = 1. Xij ;7 LI (t) B;( RJ (t) a;7
.8 (Xij _=a;7.8), ;B. ⎡
8=': ⎤
X11 X12 ··· X1n
⎢ X21 X22 ··· X2n ⎥
⎢ ⎥
Bn×n = ⎢ .. .. .. .. ⎥ .
⎣ . . . . ⎦
Xn1 Xn2 · · · Xnn
=.8='5;75. .8='^ 1 5,  L1(t) a;7190 n H;( R1(t)R2 (t)· · · Rn(t)
.8, ^ 2 5,  L2(t) a;7195 n H;( R1 (t)R2 (t)· · · Rn (t) .8, · · ·, ^ n 5,  Ln(t)
a;7195 n H;( R1 (t)R2 (t)· · ·Rn (t) .8 p , .8='4;(4, n 419J5$
R1 (t) 0 Rn (t) X?a;7%.8. =, :#*5^ Tj (t) , 2#a;7 Li (t)  Rj (t) "-
p ?, , Xij = p × 1.
2.2 HIQH> 0-1 [`\[]\%
H: X = 1, ,2# L (t) → R (t) =" , @ R (t) → L (t) =" *, %&53/=? i 5
ij i j j j

;7 L (t) 0/843/4, 3/UI0/8.

1B 1 19H.8=';7 L (t) 5$^ 1 5 X X · · ·X , 3/=;7 L (t) 
i

1 11 12 1n 1

UI0/8. 4: X = 1, ,2# L (t) → R (t) =" , @ R (t) → L (t); #;7 L (t) 5$^ j
1j 1 j j j j

5, : X = 1, ,2# L (t) → R (t) =" , @ R (t) → L (t), &, =;7 L (t)  2 V0/8:
j1 j 1 1 1 1

L (t) → R (t) → L (t) → R (t) → L (t). 5: X = 1, ,2# L (t) → R (t) =" , @ R (t) → L (t);
1 j j 1 1 1j 1 j j j

#;7 L (t) 5$^ j 5, : (k = 1 )X = 1, ,2# L (t) → R (t), @ R (t) → L (t) =" ; #;7
j jk j k k k

L (t) 5$^ k 5, : X = 1, ,2# L (t) → R (t), @ R (t) → L (t), &, =;7 L (t)  3 V0/
k k1 k 1 1 1 1

8: L (t) → R (t) → L (t) → R (t) → L (t) → R (t) → L (t). 6'W, H.8=';7 L (t) 5$^
1 j j k k 1 1 1
2840   38

5 X 3/=;7 L1(t) ?V0/8;0/8(`$.

B
1 11 , X12 , · · · , X1n ,

1 2 H.8=';7 L2(t) 5$^ 2 5 X21 X22 · · ·X2n , 3/=;7 L2(t) 0/8(

` $.

B H.8=';7 5$^ 5   
···
1 n Ln (t) n Xn1 Xn2 · · · Xnn , 3/=;7 Ln(t) 0/8(
`$
1B
.
N H0/8(`$+!/ UI0/8
1G*2+HaR,3S^b@\[]_\c`d
n+1 n .
2.3
;(3*5 T1(t)T2 (t)· · · T6 (t) 1 ;70;( 0-1 .8=';7
1)
H?;(3*5 T1(t)T2 (t)· · ·T6(t) "&; (K< 8), :;7 LI (t) ;( RJ (t) "a
;7, , Xij = 1, B, Xij = 0, Xij a;7.8. ', ;B.8=':
⎡ ⎤
0 1 1 0 1 1
⎢1 1 1 0 0 1⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢1 1⎥
⎢ 0 0 1 1 ⎥
B6×6 =⎢ ⎥.
⎢0 0 0 0 1 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣1 1 0 0 0 0⎦
0 0 0 0 1 0
=, .8='^ 1 5,  L1(t) ;7195 6 H;( R1(t)R2 (t)· · · R6 (t) a;7.8, · · ·, ^ 6
5,  L6(t) ;7195 6 H;( R1(t)R2 (t)· · ·R6 (t) a;7.8, #*5^ T3(t) , 2#a;7
L2 (t)  R3 (t) "- 2 ?, , X23 = 2 × 1.
2) ;70;( 0-1 .8='0/83/
4H.8=';7 L1(t) 5$^ 1 5 X11 X12 · · · X16, 3/=;7 L1(t) UI0/8. a. =
X12 = 1, ,2# L1 (t) → R2 (t), @ R2 (t) → L2 (t); #;7 L2 (t) 5$^ 2 5, X21 = 1, ,2# L2 (t) → R1 (t),
@ R1(t) → L1(t), &, =;7 L1(t)  2 V0/8: L1(t) → R2(t) → L2(t) → R1(t) → L1(t). b. #
;7 L2(t) 5$^ 2 5, a X23 = 1, ,2# L2(t) → R3(t), @ R3 (t) → L3(t). #;7 L3(t) 5$^ 3 5,
X31 = 1, ,2# L3 (t) → R1 (t), @ R1 (t) → L1 (t), &, =;7 L1 (t)  3 V0/8: L1 (t) → R2 (t) →
L2 (t) → R3 (t) → L3 (t) → R1 (t) → L1 (t). c. #;7 L3 (t) 5$^ 3 5, a X35 = 1, ,2# L3 (t) → R5 (t),
@ R5 (t) → L5(t), #;7 L5(t) 5$^ 5 5, X51 = 1, ,2# L5(t) → R1(t), @ R1(t) → L1(t), &, =
;7 L1(t)  4 V0/8: L1(t) → R2(t) → L2(t) → R3(t) → L3(t) → R5 (t) → L5(t) → R1(t) → L1(t). 6
'W, H.8=';7 L1(t) 5$^ 1 5 X11 X12 · · ·X16, 93/=;7 L1(t)  25 ?0/8.
5, 19H.8=';7 L2(t) 0 L6(t) 5$?5a;7.8 Xij $, 3/ =;7
L2 (t) 0 L6 (t) ?;7UI0/8.
3) ;70;( 0-1 .8=' 0/83/43/&"
5;7 L1(t) 0 L6(t) ?;70/8(`$+!/, %(  33 ?0/8KL 6.
2.4 ef;=]^\[]_\c Vensim _aHI\[]_\S>g`d
!%"540/8/4 $5@U, 3/+&"6B: `7 [12]
;(
3*5 T1(t)T2 (t)· · · T6(t) 54:
 
 1 (R1 , L2 ) (R1 , A12 , L3 ) 0 (R1 , A13 , L5 ) 0 
 
 
 (R2 , A22 , L1 ) 1 0 0 (R2 , A23 , L5 ) 0 
 
 (R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 ) (R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )+(R3 , L2 ) 1 0 0 0 
|A|6×6 =  

 0 0 R4 , L3 1 0 0 
 
 (R5 , A52 , L1 ) 0 (R5 , L3 ) (R5 , A54 , L4 ) 1 (R5 , A53 , L6 ) 
 
 (R5 , A62 , L1 ) (R6 , L2 ) (R6 , A63 , L3 ) 0 0 1 
 11 , :   SD    2841

Q YSST
E6 6I071J28HK395bc`,@
kal
bbk 1 Oc L2 − L2
mbk 3 OcXVYXO L1 − L2 − L1 ; L1 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L1
P  P W O X MZ
\
dbk 8 OcXVYOP L1 − L5 − L2 − L1 ; L1 − L2 − L3 − L1 ; L1 − L6 − L5 − L1 ; L2 − L3 −
PW XOXMZ\ L5 −L2 ; L2 −L6 −L5 −L2 ; L1 −B31 (t)−A31 (t)−L3 −L5 −L1 ; L1 −
P TOV L2 −B31 (t)−A31 (t)−L3 −L1 ; L2 −B31 (t)−A31 (t)−L3 −L5 −L2
bbk 13 OcXVYXO L1 − L2 − L3 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − L5 − L2 − L3 − L1 ; L1 − L6 − L5 −
P PW XOXMZ\ L2 − L1 ; L1 − L2 − L6 − L5 − L1 ; L2 − L3 − L4 − L5 − L2 ; L2 −
P TOV L3 − L6 − L5 − L2 ; L1 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L5 − L2 − L1 ; L1 −
L2 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 −
L4 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − L5 − L2 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L1 ; L1 −
B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L6 − L5 − L1 ; L2 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 −
L4 − L5 − L2 ; L2 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L6 − L5 − L2
cbk 8 OcXVYXO L1 − L2 − L3 − L4 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − L2 − L3 − L6 − L5 − L1 ; L1 −
P PW X OXMZ L6 − L5 − L2 − L3 − L1 ; L1 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L4 − L5 −
\ XP TOV L2 − L1 ; L1 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L6 − L5 − L2 − L1 ; L1 − L2 −
B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L4 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − L2 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) −
L3 − L6 − L5 − L1 ; L1 − L6 − L5 − L2 − B31 (t) − A31 (t) − L3 − L1

=(R1 , L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 ) + (R1 , A12 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )

+ (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A52 , L1 ) + (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A62 , L1 )
+ (R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , L2 ) + (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )
+ (R1 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A52 , L1 ) + (R1 , A12 , L3 )((R3 , L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )
+ (R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 ) + (R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , L3 )(R3 , L2 )
+ (R1 , A12 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 ) + (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )
+ (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A63 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )
+ (R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A63 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 ) + (R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A63 , L3 )(R3 , L2 )
+ (R1 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A62 , L1 ) + (R1 , A12 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A52 , L1 )
+ (R1 , A12 , L3 )(R3 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A52 , L1 ) + (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )
+ (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , L3 )(R3 , L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 ) + (R1 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )
+ (R3 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A54 , L4 )(R4 , L3 ) + (R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )(R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A54 , L4 )(R4 , L3 )
+ (R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A54 , L4 )(R4 , L3 )+(R3 , L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )(R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A54 , L4 )(R4 , L3 )
+ (R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )(R1 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A54 , L4 )(R4 , L3 )
+ (R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )(R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A54 , L4 )(R4 , L3 )
+ (R1, A13 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A63 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )
+ (R1 , A13 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A63 , L3 )(R3 , L2 )(R2 , A22 , L1 )
+ (R1 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A63 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L1 )
+ (R1 , A12 , L3 )(R3 , (B31 , A31 ), L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A62 , L1 )
+ (R1 , A12 , L3 )(R3 , L2 )(R2 , A23 , L5 )(R5 , A53 , L6 )(R6 , A62 , L1 ).

N&"54/4FV0/8`/\Qd)9, ^ 32 ?0/83/&"&L6

L2 FV0/8C, n% 33 ?0/8, ;7 - ;( [0-1] ='/4&"GUF.. 'E, !5 Ven-
2842   38

ple51 cE, 5;<?;7i:3/0/8, 5\H;7&F$5c.<3/1,7D, %GU

E!/&". V$F3U;70;( 0-1 .8=' 0/83/4"540/83/4
 F . ;.
3 dhaebicfWd :Yjghk
')%=78    SD 1 , &$B, %+/9(06$5R
$(@. B1,H(5   !ST.
 
E 7 T ∼T
ecfQ
X E 1 6

S[od
OXeEif &
 1: eVYep dFeTZ C (UZ/) [0.15, 0.3][0.3, 0.6]
 2: e cYg OYdV C (hi)
1

[0.04, 0.08][0.08, 0.1]

 3: f[O H O HZQ C (H H \ ZQ[)
2

[1, 2][2, 3]

jg hik`d
3

3.1 [
fg!1,.5 1,FH  (q1 ) \Lq8-#5 06q]#?E-#gr!
*4. BU1 9;, 506$5fg!1,, <@1 506#$D#K-#fg!. " C
-#06, L 8-, ,fg! S :  
 ΔL(t)/L(t) 
S(t) =  .
ΔC(t)/C(t) 
1 5L 7  3 H/?06$5/?06fg!1,, N&bg=6, "s06/?--#5
I1-fg!&".
1) ; 7 L1 (t) (SP) 5 C1 (SP/&) /?0 6 - # fg !1,. N& &G .  M C1 
TI (t) *5;7 R&D .M * L1 (t) (SP) ;( R1 (t) /?06, K< 6 ^*5 TI (t). "
L 7 &L$( C2 (j17)/.$ 6 C3 19&=>, f C2 = 0.08, C3 = 2, 3/
L1 (t) 5 C1 -#fg! S1 (t).
NL 7, C1 ∈ [0.15, 0.6], Z C1 = 0.15, :$1 , ;7 L1(t) :$^Æ, Æ L11(t), L11(t) :"?
KL 8 ^ 3 5; Z C1 = 0.6, ,% L1(t) :$^Æ, Æ L12(t), L12(t) :"?KL 8 ^
2 5. ΔL1 (t) = L12 (t) − L11 (t) = : " ? KL 8 ^ 4 5.  Hfg ! 3 /7, fg ! S1 (t) =
(ΔL1 (t)/L11 (t))/(ΔC1 /0.15), N'3/%;7 L1 (t) 5 C1 /?06-#fg! S1 (t) :"?, K
L 8 ^ 5 5.
fQ_
E 8 L (t)
1 UKLMOPCl if & EHjkm El
C X O 1 O S (t)
XNST 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1

C1 = 0.6 L12 (t) 1173.28 1377.83 1615.15 1876.34 2169.56 2483.2 2810.1 3169.95 3586.48
C1 = 0.15 L11 (t) 1061.31 1148.2 1243.34 1344.42 1453.51 1567.7 1685.2 1810.95 1950.86
ΔL1 (t) 111.97 229.63 371.81 531.92 716.05 915.5 1124.9 1359 1635.62
S1 (t) 0.035 0.067 0.100 0.132 0.164 0.195 0.223 0.250 0.279

L 8 X>: ;7 L1(t) 5 C1 /?06-#fg!I 0.035 (2017 ), ; 0.279 (2025 ), :"
?Gfg! 0.161, @-DWBfg!.
2) ;7 L2 (t) (SP) 5 C2 (&$j17) /?06-#fg!1,. N&&$j1
7 C2 /\/? T2(t) *5&L6 L2(t) (&) ;( R2 (t) /?06, K< 6 e*5 T2(t). 
"L 7 &G.M C1 (SP/&)/.$ 6 C3 19&=>, f C1 = 0.3, C3 = 2,
3/ L2(t) 5 C2 -#fg! S2(t).
NL 7, C2 ∈ [0.04, 0.1], Z C2 = 0.04, :$1 , % L2(t) :$^Æ, Æ L21(t), L21(t) :"?
KL 9 ^ 3 5; Z C2 = 0.1, :$1 , ;7 L2(t) :$^Æ, Æ L22(t), L22(t) :"?
KL 9 ^ 2 5. ΔL2(t) = L22(t) − L21(t) :"?KL 9 ^ 4 5, Hfg!3/7, fg!
 11 , :   SD    2843

S2 (t) = (ΔL2 (t)/L21 (t))/(ΔC2 /0.04), N'3/%;7 L (t) 5 C /?06-#fg! S (t) :"?
2 2 2

, KL 9 ^ 5 5.
fQ_
E 9 L (t)
XNST 2017
2 A>BP&Cl ifX&OEHjkmOEl
2018
C2
2019 2020 2021 2022
S2 (t)
2023 2024 2025
C2 = 0.1 L22 (t) 239 298 342 402 439 462 525 640 574
C2 = 0.04 L21 (t) 240 272 296 325 346 362 391 434 426
ΔL2 (t) −1 27 46 76 93 100 134 205 149
S2 (t) 0.003 0.065 0.103 0.157 0.179 0.183 0.229 0.316 0.233

L 9 X>: ;7 L2(t) 5 C2 /?06-#fg!I 0.003 (2017 ), ; 0.233 (2025 ), :"
?Gfg! 0.163, @-DWBfg!.
3) ;7 L3 (t) ( ") 5 C3 (/.$ 6) /?06-#fg!1,. N&/.$
6 C3 /\/? T3(t) *5;7 " L3(t) (&/) ;( R3(t) /?06, K< 7 ^*5
T3 (t). "L 7 &G.M C1 (SP/&) &$( C2 19&=>, f C1 = 0.3,
C2 = 0.08, 3/ L3 (t) 5 C3 -#fg! S3 (t).
NL 7, C3 ∈ [1, 3], Z C3 = 1, ,% L3(t) :$^Æ, Æ L31(t), L31(t) :"?KL 10 ^ 3
5; Z C3 = 3, :$1 , ;7 L3(t) :$^Æ, Æ L32(t), L32(t) :"?KL 10 ^ 2 5. ΔL3(t) =
L32 (t)−L31 (t) :"?KL 10 ^ 4 5, Hfg!3/7, fg! S3 (t) = (ΔL3 (t)/L31 (t))/(ΔC3 /1),
N'3/%;7 L3(t) 5 C3 /?06-#fg! S3(t) :"?, KL 10 ^ 5 5.
E 10 L (t) 3 >96I?@Cl if & EHjkm El
C X O O S (t)
3 3

fQ_ XNST 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
C3 = 3 L32 (t) 1243 1649 1858 2062 2709 2933 3430 3894 5286
C3 = 1 L31 (t) 422 558 627 695 911 986 1151 1306 1770
ΔL3 (t) 821 1091 1231 1367 1798 1947 2278 2588 3516
S3 (t) 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

L 10 X>: ;7 L3(t) 5 C3 /?06-#fg!I 0.97 (2017 ), ; 0.99 (2025 ), :"
?Gfg! 0.984, @-WBfg!.
L 8∼10 9#, %+"> C1 , C2  C3 H06#/?D#K5 $5/?, 5$H.
Q;7-8\L%D;-#, 'X>-5 '(J-kJ  *
4. Hfg!1,,  " L3(t) 5/.$ 6 C3 /?06-#fg!;, $F3X
>/.$ "  gg.
3.2 mn:oBnpq lo : S m &A\[]!"pr`d
C1 ( / ) ` 1
1) &G.M06 C1 /?]V%V0/8 25 ?
&G.M C1 (SP/&)  T1(t) ;( R1(t) /?06, `0/83/, + R1(t)
]0V0/8 25 ?, N' C1 /\/?0/8 25 ?, =]V0/8 3 ?, V0/8 5 ?, K
V0/8 9 ?, V0/8 8 ?. < 12  25 ?0/8$><. < 13 ^< “. * L1(t)”
“&L6 L2 (t)” ]V0/8, e< “. * L1 (t)” “&L6 L2 (t)” “
" L3(t)”“*( L6(t)”“)WÆ L5(t)” VV0/8. >A% 23 ?0/8.
'X>( 1  C1 (SP/&) # /?D(0/8&;-#.
2) ( 1 0/:$1,
:$*l:
*l 1: hC*&G.M6 C1  0.15 SP-.
*l 2: R&G.M6 C1 N 0.15 SP% 0.3 SP/&.
*l 3: &G.M C1 6N 0.15 SP% 0.6 SP/&.
2844   38

ᑈҎഛⷨথ
๲ࡴ㒣䌍C1

+ R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣L1(t)
R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣L1(t). +
+
R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t) .
R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t) +
ӕϮ߽⍺ⷨথᕅ ⷨথᡩܹᔎᑺ
ડ಴ᄤA13(t). ᕅડ಴ᄤA22(t).
+ 2䰊 +
ⷨথᡩܹᔎᑺ ℷড + +
ᕅડ಴ᄤA22(t) 作⦃
ӕϮ߽⍺乱L5(t) 5䰊 ⾥ᡔҎਬ
ℷড ᭄䞣L2(t)
作⦃ ⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪䞣R2(t)
ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣R5(t)
+
⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄
䞣L2(t).
⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪䞣R1(t). +
ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ᕅ + +
ડ಴ᄤA53(t) ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣L3(t)
+
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣R3(t)

........................................................................................................ ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛L6(t) ߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ +

ℸ໘ⳕ⬹C1 䇗᥻R1(t) ড作⦃23ᴵ ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ব࣪䞣R6(t).+ ડ಴ᄤA62(t)

" NBsUKqtLMX& if n95b

12 C1 25

万元
万元
万元
万元

Աъ࡙⏖仍ਈॆ䟿 R5(t) ˄з‫ ݳ‬/ᒤ˅ ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t) ˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅

4,000 20

3,000 ᯩṸ 2
3 15 23 23
1 1
ᯩṸ 3 23
ᯩṸ 2 2 3 1
ᯩṸ 3 3 12
2,000 10 32 12 ᯩṸ 1
3 312 1
ᯩṸ 1 3 123
3 3 2 123
1,000 1 123 123
2
2 2 5 123
1 2 1 1 123
32 1 1 123
123 123 132 1 123
0 123 123 123 123 0
123
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)
" Աъ࡙⏖仍ਈॆ䟿 R5(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1 1
" ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1
" Աъ࡙⏖仍ਈॆ䟿 R5(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : c1=0.3万元 2 2 2 2
" ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅" : c1=0.3万元 2 2 2

" ou6IHOprqmXqtBsAULMeEOX,@
" Աъ࡙⏖仍ਈॆ䟿 R5(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : c1=0.6万元 3 3 3 3
" ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅" : c1=0.6万元 3 3 3

13

< 12 < 13 X>, Z&G.M6 C 19N 0.15 SP19% 0.3 SP/& 0.6 SP/& 1

('. *MÆ3@I*7N 3.7% 19% 4.2%  5.2%), &G.M6 C %+%& 1

. *-# R (t), $@%+ 3 ?]V0/8 5 ?V0/8 9 ?KV0/8 8 ?V0/8%

1

&&L-# R (t) "-# R (t))WÆ-# R (t) *(-# R (t),

2 3 5 6

h ).
3.3 rvB::asG> S`m &A\[]!"pr`d C2 2
1)&$(06 C2 /?FV%V0/8 27 ?
&$(06 C2 (%)  T2(t) ;( R2 (t) /?06, `0/83/, + R2(t) F
0V0/8 27 ?, N' C2 /\/?0/8 27 ?. < 15 ^< “&L6 L2(t)” F
V0/8, e< “&L6 L2(t)” “ " L3(t)” “. * L1(t)” “*(
L6 (t)” “)WÆ L5 (t)” VV0/8. C2 /\/?FV0/8 1 ?, ]V0/8 1 ?, V0
/8 6 ?, KV0/8 11 ?, V0/8 8 ?, < 15 >A% 25 ?0/8. 'X>( 2 &
$( C2 # /?D(0/8&;-#.
 11 , :   SD    2845

( 2 0/:$1,
2)
:$*l:
*l 1: &$! C2 BC 4% -.
*l 2: &$! C2 N 4%  8%, Z!$ LED )( i ''m)( i
.&.
*l 3: &$! C2 N 4%  10%, ;$ LED )( i ''m)( i ''
mfb: i *1hee".&.
⾥ᡔҎᠡ
ᓩ䖯⥛C2

+ ⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄䞣L2(t)
+
⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪䞣R2(t) +
Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍B31(t)
ӕϮ߽⍺ᬊܹ
+ ᕅડ಴ᄤA23(t) +
⾥ᡔҎਬ᭄䞣L2(t) .
+ Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍
⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪䞣R2(t) . ᕅડ಴ᄤA31(t)
1䰊ℷড ӕϮ߽⍺乱L5(t)
+ 5䰊ℷড
作⦃ +
ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣R5(t) 作⦃ ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ
៤ᵰ䞣L3(t)
+ ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣R3(t)
............................................................... ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ +
................................................. . ᕅડ಴ᄤA53(t)
+ ߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ
ડ಴ᄤA12(t)
ℸ໘ⳕ⬹C2 䇗᥻ +
R (t) ড作⦃25ᴵ ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛L6(t) R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R (t)
2 1
ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ব࣪䞣R6(t)
+
R&Dᡩܹᔎᑺ R&Dⷨথᡩܹ䞣L1(t)
ᕅડ಴ᄤA61(t)+

" A>Bc2wFX& if n95b

14 C2 27
R&D⹄ਁᣅ‫ޕ‬䟿L1(t) ˄з‫˅ݳ‬ 、ᢰӪઈᮠ䟿L2(t) ˄Ӫ˅
32
2,000 3 1 800
ᯩṸ 3 12
123 3
231
1,500 12 600 ᯩṸ 2 3
2
132 3 2
123 2
123 ᯩṸ 3 3
123 3 2 1 1
1,000 123 123 ᯩṸ 1 400 3
2
2 1
1 1
123 123 123 23 1
3 1
123 ᯩṸ 2 12 ᯩṸ 1
500 200 123 123 123
123 123 123
123

0 0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)
"R&D ⹄ਁᣅ‫ޕ‬䟿 L1(t)˄з‫ "˅ݳ‬: current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 " 、ᢰӪઈᮠ䟿 L2(t)˄Ӫ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
"R&D ⹄ਁᣅ‫ޕ‬䟿 L1(t)˄з‫ "˅ݳ‬: c2=8% 2 2 2 2 2 2 " 、ᢰӪઈᮠ䟿 L2(t)˄Ӫ˅" : c2=8% 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
"R&D ⹄ਁᣅ‫ޕ‬䟿 L1(t)˄з‫ "˅ݳ‬: c2=10% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 " 、ᢰӪઈᮠ䟿 L2(t)˄Ӫ˅" : c2=10% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿R4(t) ˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅ ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿R6(t) ˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅

20,000 20 3
3
ᯩṸ 3 ᯩṸ 1 ᯩṸ 2 2
2
2 3
14,750 15 2
1 3
3 3 1 1
ᯩṸ 2 1 2
ᯩṸ 3 3 2 1
9,500 12 10 2
1
1
12 3 3 32 1
132
123 2 231 1
13 123
4,250 213 213 123 123 ᯩṸ 1
123 5 123
123
123 123 123
123 123
123
-1,000 0
123
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)
" ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1 1 " ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1
" ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t˄
) з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : c2=8% 2 2 2 2 2 " ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅" : c2=8%

" o21J6IHBctxsqXouAU?@NJEtuOX,@
2 2 2 2 2
" ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : c2=10% 3 3 3 3 3 " ࣣࣘ⭏ӗ⦷ਈॆ䟿 R6(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/Ӫ·ᒤ˅" : c2=10% 3 3 3 3 3

15

< 14 < 15 W>, &$(06 C (%) %+%& R (t), $@%+ 1 ?FV0/8 1 ?] 2 2

V0/8 6 ?V0/8 11 ?KV0/8 8 ?V0/8%& R&D .M-# R (t)& 1

L-# R (t) "-# R (t))WÆ-# R (t) *(-# R (t); 

2 3 5 6

"# 6 C %+ 3 ?KV0/8 3 ?V0/8%&3@Æ-# R (t) (6&bg, 

4 4

d[), n"#3@Æ, %+&?H"#

2846   38

 ).
3.4 rvLunrvw S`m &A\[]!"pr`d C3 3
1)/?]V%V0/8 25 ?
/.$ 606 C3  T3(t) ;( R3 (t) /?06, `0/83/, + R3 (t) ]0
V0/8 25 ?, N' C3 /\/?0/8 25 ?, K< 17. < 17 ^< “ " L3(t)”
 “. * L1(t)” ]V0/8. e< “&L6 L2(t)”“*( L6(t)”“. *
L1 (t)” “ " L3 (t)” “)WÆ L5 (t)” VV0/8. < 16 X> C3 /\/?]V
0/8 1 ?, V0/8 5 ?, KV0/8 11 ?, V0/8 8 ?, )%. * L1(t)&L6
L2 (t)  " L3 (t) )WÆ L5 (t) *( L6 (t) .Q;7-. >A% 23 ?0/
8. 'X>( 3 /.$ 6 C3 # /?D(0/8&;-#.
ѻᄺⷨড়԰ᣛ᭄C3

ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ
+ + 䞣L3(t) .
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰ䞣L3(t) +
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣R3(t) .
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣R3(t) +
Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍 ߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ
+ ᕅડ಴ᄤA31(t). ડ಴ᄤA12(t).
+ 2䰊 Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍 +
߯ᮄ៤ᵰᕅ ℷড ᕅડ಴ᄤA31(t) Ҏഛⷨথ㒣
作⦃ 䌍B31(t). +
ડ಴ᄤA12(t) + 5䰊
+ R&Dⷨথᡩ
Ҏഛⷨথ㒣䌍B31(t) ℷড ܹ䞣L1(t) .
⾥ᡔҎਬ 作⦃ R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t).
+ + ᭄䞣L2(t)
R&Dⷨথᡩ ⾥ᡔҎਬব࣪䞣R2(t) +
ܹ䞣L1(t)
R&Dⷨথ㒣䌍ব࣪䞣R1(t). R&Dᡩܹᔎᑺ
+
ᕅડ಴ᄤA61(t)
ӕϮ߽⍺ᬊܹ
ᕅડ಴ᄤA23(t) +
+ ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛L6(t)
........................................................................................................ ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ব࣪䞣R6(t)
ℸ໘ⳕ⬹C3 䇗᥻R3(t) ড作⦃23ᴵ ӕϮ߽⍺乱L5(t) +

ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣R5(t) ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛
+ ᕅડ಴ᄤA53(t)

" 16 N xUA-y&X& if n95b C3 25

ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣 R3(t) ˄៤ᵰऩԡ/ᑈ˅ ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t) ˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅
800 3
40,000
ᮍḜ 3 3
ᯩṸ 2
600 29,750 3
2 3 ᯩṸ 3
ᮍḜ 2 2 3
400 ᮍḜ 1 19,500 3
2
3 3 3 2
3 3 1 2 2 1
200 3 3 3 1
2
2 3 2 3
3
2
3 2 3 3
2 3 2 2 1 9,250
1 1 3 2 3
1 ᯩṸ 1
2 2 2 2 1 2 2
2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
2
1 1 1 2
1
0 1 1 3
2
1 3
2
1 3
2
1
-1,000
3
2
1
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)
"ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣 R3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ/ᑈ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1
"ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1 1
"ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣 R3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ/ᑈ˅" : c3=2 2 2 2 2 "ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : c3=2 2 2 2 2 2
"ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ៤ᵰব࣪䞣 R3(t)˄៤ᵰऩԡ/ᑈ˅" : c3=3 3 3 3 3 3 "ᯠӗ૱䬰୞仍ਈॆ䟿 R4(t)˄з‫ݳ‬/ᒤ˅" : c3=3 3 3 3 3 3 3

ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣 R5(t) ˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅ ӕϮ߽⍺乱 L5(t) ˄ϛ‫˅ܗ‬

4,000 20,000 ᮍḜ 2
3
3,000
ᮍḜ 3 15,000 3
ᮍḜ 2
2
ᮍḜ 3 3
2,000 3
3 3 3 10,000 2
3 2
ᮍḜ 1 2 2
3
2
3 2 1
1
1,000 1 5,000 2 1
3 3 2 2 3 1
3 3 2 1
2 2 2 1
1
1
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
2
1 1 ᮍḜ 1
3
2
1 1 3 1 1 3
2
1 3
2
1 3
2
1 3
2
1 3
2
1
2
0 3
2
1
3
2
1
3
2
1 3
2
1 1 0 3
2
1

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Time (Year) Time (Year)

"ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣 R5(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅" : current 1 1 1 1 1 1 "ӕϮ߽⍺乱 L5(t)˄ϛ‫ "˅ܗ‬: current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

"ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣 R5(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅" : c3=2 "ӕϮ߽⍺乱 L5(t)˄ϛ‫ "˅ܗ‬: c3=2

" vENxUA-XouAU?@6I?yFOX,@
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
"ӕϮ߽⍺乱ব࣪䞣 R5(t)˄ϛ‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅" : c3=3 3 3 3 3 3 3 "ӕϮ߽⍺乱 L5(t)˄ϛ‫ "˅ܗ‬: c3=3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

17

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[1] wk Fe   
. [J]. m , 2013(11): 1–9.
Hu Y. Increasing the motivation for pursuing innovation[J]. Chinese Soft Science, 2013(11): 1–9.
[2]
sm mxm OPOXOP VYy znop l
Malerba F. Sectoral systems of innovation and production[J]. Research Policy, 2002, 31: 247–264.
qnOXnornctsXpuQo ip
 
[3] , . ——
[J]. , 2012(9): 22–31.
Cao Y, Su F J. An empirical study on the impact of high tech industry technological innovation investment on
innovation performance — Comparative analysis of panel data of five industries in the whole industry and its
subordinate[J]. Scientific Research Management, 2012(9): 22–31.
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Li C L, Liu Z Y. An empirical study on the effect of the coupling interaction between industry and research on
innovation performance[J]. Scientific Research Management, 2013(3): 23–30.
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. : rt OXTu
[J]. , 2011,(4): 1–7.
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y vy
[7] , , . OEM ODM OEM ——
[J]. , 2008(6): 148–156.
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[10] y{~ ow  qsu|y{ OP su

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75–84.
Ma Y H, Wang Z Z, Zhou W. Study on the archetype and policy analysis of technology innovation diffusion

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E 13 E A (t) = f (PRD(t)) N& 31

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A31 (t) 0.05 0.227 3 3.51 2.11

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tab51 405.1 225 19.98 169.9 149.7

5 A52 (t)  R&D .ST=(, A52 (t)=IFTHEN ELSE(L1(t) > DELAY 1I(L1(t), 1, 0), 1.01, 0.99).
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518.93 SP. , LH /L _6 Æ378 *4, f1,-. *-
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 A62(t) L_6 18.
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RD(t) 0 0.8 1 1.24 1.32 1.54 1.6 2 3 3.5 4

A61 (t) 0.2 0.7 0.93 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.1 1.22 1.27 1.34

5 A62 (t) = tab62(t) ( " L3(t)/  " L3(t = 2010)).

"ST=( A62(t)  “ " 3CA7 TIN(t)” L_6,  " L3(t =
2010) = 12, , 786L_6 19.
N&
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TIN(t) 0 2 5 8 10 11 20 40 60
A62 (t) 0 1.002 1.34 1.229 1.5 1.472 1.82 1.76 1.71