Professional Documents
Culture Documents
&
'( #$% !"
5 23 4 /01 . 2030 )* + , -
8$9% 2* .+ .* .+ 67
<1:
e-mail: ahha555@gmail.com:
9
– 479 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
– 480 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 481 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
– 482 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 483 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
%
¸ c R §#% H/;3 (GI 2030 W .( }`./ .g CD ;#Q.I o ¬ ,AT J;Q
^a%A ! y..O d..[( ..~9 #..8 d..# ,Z../o
a%A i A ( [ J(Zq T ;/ \3 w.$( /`."e;I bA> Vj ]I % J(T
. ( ""I
8O P/L W T3 M; < ,2030 Q.. .." ( .. ..( d..379
,..EF ..%( .. H/..;3 J..E3 2030 L ^13^ ,2016a
B.. ;I J..8 \..3 ..>
.( }`/ ,JE }`/ "f :D (GI < .$ ,R §.#% "8 H/; 2030 >7
`/ ¦ "e "88L JAG# K "AT#Q 8 2017 !"% 8 2017 {A 8
\. S
.T3 UI VN 7 \3 , T # !"# < "8 H/; o J[ 2017 (/w
^Z"eI T ]I £"NI < !ZQ o .A$3 c. :> n ,· ZN ,d36
:'
$ C'D (..G# CD ..Z#[% ,..";~ 2030 .. W3..3
.8 .8o ¶. ,8 j3 MN < ^( JGI P/o A$
:·# < _#I
" p. [(3 \3 a%A | > 3 7 \3
.""AG . H/.;3 (GI JAG#3 3 − 1 .8"8 .T" ,2030 Q. ." (
.( ""I
8O P/L MN < EF %( .. H/..;3 (..GI ª =..3 ..T" ,!"..#
!"..I < WU..UX# (..YE ..Z[ \..3 2030 .. W. $
j.3 ®.TE [ Bej$ d# ,J"N(
? .3 M.N < , H/;3 JE3 ( W33
i#Q.3 ; "pU%D
x ( [I @/ − 2 . H/;3 V> B ;I d# J8 |; Bej$
J.AG#3 c. WU.UX# .T3 [ < α=0.05 8 1436 dF_A w"#
w$(3 8 @F3 :G
M.N < EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI ,2014 3% \Q% 8 2012 \(³ 3%
iw..I 2030 .. ..( ""I
..8O P../L \3 < ,(G# [( CD H/; }`/ [%
?e"q u;6 Jnv# .TF H/.; }`./ r (. .# .3 .f ,ZAE[
. H/.;3 J.E S
T U# 3 − 3 ..";# J..AG# ..Z#>7 ,|I7j..3 ,V..#
.( ""I
.8O P./L }`./ M.N < ""AG .>7 B. ;I J8 [ @q < ,";~
– 484 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
J.AG#3 J.#> a."% ¥"A ! 'L ! ?2030 Q " (
i.#_ P./L¤ Q."p( .E3 c. (G# :'
$ #$D
...""# Gj...EL "Q...# J""I
...8O :CD 8 }`/ B/
^¥!T# H/.;3 JE3 (GI JAG#3 ( o K − 1
7. B. .8 JM([D :G )1$F P./L M.N < .EF .%( .""AG
H./1439 +1438 ^2030 ( ""I
8O
:'
$ I . HZ;.3 JE S
T3 UI !TI − 2
n.v#¤ |E 2010 e"s |( :/ P.../L M...N < ...EF ...%( ...""AG
o Z. < o "(e HZ; JE3 %o < de" ^2030 ( ""I
8O
."TK < HZ;. :M.e$ V. CD {¡. {` ,Z"t :'
$ ED
^ ¥3j. ";# @[o \3 d"# Y; J . g .¢$ < .8 }`./ ."±o I − 1
^286 ..""I 2030 .. .. @.."e# §Q..I .."F_
2017 !E. .Z(I :J ..%( ..""AG .. H/..;3 (..G# Z;"3..3
." i#Q. .GAI( J._ \3 ¤ ¢ ^ EF
d"# Y; \3 :j; J[(X "TK < H/; c WpT [ `vI nI < !ZQI > − 2
eQ. @j.I ,".8 J.Z[ @.A> \3 N {`X#3 \G3 \3 < ""AG H/;3
GjEL !# !"# x(~ }#g |/o HZ; ^ H/;3 < ( P/o WI < Q ,(>
^12^ ¥!T# x(~ ""# U − a%A ! % c − 8 }`/ I − 3
Js W3 ¢ "p([D
a%A Z( . H/.;3 (GI ;#I d# C L J8 \3
." ( . .( U. Jy
""# ^2030 Q " ( MN < ""AG
J.E3 < .Z"eI Z;"I S
T 2030 Q :'
$ )1$
V.3 Q; EF %( ""AG H/;3 ";
""AG H/;3 :7" )1$F
^Z[I ( }`/ P/o M"" Mw"e M"%L¤ H/;3 d/ 8 }`/ <
– 485 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
o ."pw[ Jn."vI .%9 .[ i.3 o VN :2030 JJ, JJ- &
JJ'( #$JJ%
^|" "88o `"e;# °"T > E(3 Q"p P/o #8 \ :A
:/71 '
$ KL : @.$ < ./(GI !#. ,.( H3(. 7. \3
!"..I < WU..UX#
< .8 V..# @.F ."T_# J.A \.3 .3w% \#I ,"Qh r"G
.;" .8 :L #.8 a"% , < ].I .TK CD Z < {¡I d# H3 J[(l
u# "/ Mo Bk ,V# `/ \3 "pj ,2030 .( d379 w$( ""I
8O P/L
J.36 < . uI x(~ H/; U < H2016b
.o
m B.k .$ ,.
m 54 !/ ¯ ,Q :'
$ /
JD < W3 \3 H/; W
W= {`. ,d_Q def HZ; 8 BAI
m
\
£AU" ,=3 38 !/ ¯ !"# HZ;. |.E 1999 . A ° J"A |(
1 .6 ,U.UX#3
m 92 .8 :». #8 o :(/.q \. JE" J33 Vt c # {`
^8 ;" (o VI £N c. P(.# |. ·. VN K UT ;3 V>
`./ "%7.f i.3 ( |" :T E[
68 35 2 9 16 6 ($y
u;6
24 3 − 7 11 3 §FEo
92 38 2 16 27 9 ª
8L |[ BE$ d# ,2030 p :'
$ Z)D
..o ,EA#..8O J..A ..g M..; < a..%A EA#.8 !"U.I !.I ,.8 '(. "T_#
..8 @..F3 T Q.. J..8 µ.. CD ª..[( :·#$ , g Qh \3 E3
^2017 (/w 8 2017 ""_ {(¬# J.E3 c. B#k " o EA#8 D − 1
;W." X#8 :L xf \3 T_# − 2 CD ª[(. ].y ,(G#. ."; "Q."p( HZ;
– 486 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
ZT"AG# ]y , xQIO X#8 xU \3 { y \.3 W.g Q.h c ZN( 7 \3 :b o
J73..3 !"..> 3 ..6 £..N ,J..AF Q.. !.I a"% ,/ g :L JA \3 T_# − 3
^JAF Cronbach Alpha ½..AE ($ ..eo @..33 X#..8
,.[
m .3 .s J(." °."T3 . [9 ._ J.AF J733 !"> B% (I a"%
(.T# ^.[
m .3 n ,3 n ,g ,3 @$ :» J.AF @33 "> Bv ,0.98-0.99 W
.# ,@.$ ._ J.A c. .T [ ^:L TF wI " "> d/ ,0.99
£.N .$ "AQE o CD Je !"QTI c a%A \.3 ."pZ; U. 8 :o BEI − 4
^4 6 @p. Bv".f > , g Qh c 3 :A 105
1.80 \3 @>o – 1 2.60 \3 @>o – 1.80 3.40 \3 @>o – 2.60 4.20 \3 @>o – 3.40 5 − 4.20 i
– 487 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
^ `/ JAG#3 _E ;" (o #8 Hp#E 5 [ £N :#$% −
H #$D b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<5: M1$0
0
)
g
#I( n'
R
[ 3 1 0.52 4.77 ^Q " ( ";~ b /( D 4
[ 3 2 0.63 4.77 ^!# i "I" "UXj JZ ";I c /"$I 10
[ 3 3 0.59 4.75 ^"ej
®AEO TI9 £3Q# !"> c /"$I 3
[ 3 4 0.54 4.73 ^"AT#Q ;/( {Q !# J[ (3 9
[ 3 5 0.72 4.69 ."G8 HZ;3 c /"$I 2
[ 3 6 0.81 4.68 ^d3789 \ ¦A3 c /I 1
[ 3 7 0.70 4.64 ^W# i "#[O JZ ";I c /"$I 11
– 488 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 489 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
c. . H/.;3 < ";~ b "3789 !"T < !"# 8"8 T" < 3 V3 e# `/ ,
{.A .8 J".fI V3 !Q; ,"I
o :w"# "UXj c 28 23 I J$o yD ;
m
< e..N I..[ W..# 2017 !"..% 2017 !"# "88L v c Q " (
,.." "..8 H/..; < !"/..e }`../ W..I m
. wI ,73.#3 m
_"_.f m
.Z 7.89 !.Z d/
". ./(GI H/.; ].I [(3 : z #f o P. | Q.$D ,"37.89 !"# !"T G
^E6 }` # ,:M;A "$Q J/²O ";I ,e#X JZ
26 ,6 ,22 ,21 J.A o 5 6 (ZY $ m
: |.# M.; < .E m
" (e "
,:n..L V.. L ..I( < ·..# c.. JM..[ ^1416 ,!"#
.T3 .[ 4.34 –4.19 W. B% (I JG8# .
J.Z[# V3 "#; }`/ !Q;I $
\.3 ].y @.T O ,3 [ 3 W B% (I "j..I o ..8 ($`..I ..$ H/..; (..GI < ..F
P.b < ;.#3 JM.[ d.# J.AG# }`/ "±o w..#O J"$..8 J..% d..# 2004 \(..³
"37.89 !".T w.wI .F L d"I
8O
% ,(e "#[O " ¡Q
_# ,;~
@j. "_.f :(3. :."% W ";~ b ,P7#.O @.ATI
ª;# (TI ,GQ ,\(R
\.3 (.# ZA"I(I a%A Àe ,«A3 n «A3 (.. o \..3 ../A# ,3T#..8O xU.. ..8¿
d.# J.AG# "AQ.; ."±» ,.;" (.YE Z[ (..T < 7..G Q..$D d..vA; d..# J"$Q..
^ ET3 ,Z#TA8 ^\= {
w.w# .GAI( J.A }`./ U.% o $
^ `/ JAG#3 _E ;" (o #8 Hp#E 6 [ £N :^I −
H ^W + b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<6: M1$0
0
)
g
#I( n'
R
[ 3 1 0.79 4.57 ^""AG J (F "A x(~ @p8 |;I 14
[ 3 2 0.82 4.54 ^ < |Eo #X # \3 "8o |;I 13
[ 3 3 0.83 4.50 ^" "_ G " < "I" > |~AI 2
– 490 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
H ^W + b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<6: M1$0
0
)
g
#I( n'
R
[ 3 4 0.90 4.50 ^/"k(I "8o T"AGI < ;# >G U3 }( D 11
[ 3 5 0.79 4.49 ^";T# " JO < < { G# }( D 7
[ 3 6 0.83 4.48 ^3#Q ";# P/o ¦A3 !"/e3 |;I 15
[ 3 7 0.86 4.48 ^ < ";T# " JQ8¡ }( D 9
[ 3 8 0.99 4.47 ^T; ª 9 TI9 F9 # JZ3 !"T }( D 27
[ 3 9 0.84 4.46 ^"_U > x(~ "8o |;I 17
[ 3 10 0.92 4.46 ^ < T"AGI :# >G !"/e3 |;I 12
[ 3 11 0.86 4.43 ^d d3789 (
c Y_ !"> !"/e3 |;I 6
[ 3 12 0.90 4.42 ^";T# < 8 yE J"UXj }( D 10
[ 3 13 0.90 4.40 ^"#[O (e " ¡Q !"/e3 |;I 3
[ 3 14 0.85 4.39 ^ d d;~
c Y_ !"> !"/e3 |;I 5
[ 3 15 0.92 4.37 ^" JO < ( d;Z @ JT"AGI !"/e3 |;I 26
[ 3 16 1.03 4.37 ^";T# " 2030 W33 }( D 1
[ 3 17 0.94 4.36 Á^^^dp ,dp`v ,d"A ,{;# }f §#j \3L !"/e3 |;I 25
[ 3 18 0.88 4.32 ^3T J3s "_U ( JQ8¡3 }( D 16
[ 3 19 0.95 4.27 ^dG# @ !"/e3 |;I 4
[ 3 20 1.03 4.27 ^p7 ";U U#>O !"/e |;I 23
[ 3 21 1.09 4.23 ^}f §#j < { G# }( D 8
[ 3 22 0.97 4.20 ^ Z3TI d# " "#[O J3s }( D 22
3 23 1.04 4.18 ^HZ; `"e;I < :©L I !"/e |;I 19
3 24 1.14 4.11 ^ ( 37Q "88L !"/e |;I 18
3 25 1.15 4.01 ^HZ; p73 "N GjEo |;I 20
3 26 1.10 3.97 ^HZ; "# |"
"8o W >7 }( D 21
3 27 1.19 3.95 Á ^^^^"
,""A ," ,""AG ,"; < %"Q !"/e3 |;I 24
[ 3 0.95 4.34
r8#
H/.;3 i.#g r ,"A JAG# #I d# JAG#3 c T [ o 6 6 £N
.>G U.3 ,." "_ G "A a"% ,[
m 3 [ Z < JM[ ,_ `/
L V. L .I( < JM[ ,/"k(I T"AGI JA o £# $ ^4.34
Q r8# ¯
– 491 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
H/; i#g < Z;"# i; (GI J/² I r.8# !".> B.% (I ,.[ ." .T3 [
.8 B.f o .$ \= { (T "8 !.I .E6 }`./ V."t ,^4.57–4.50 W b Q
\.3 .I B.> Jy < ,2004 \(.³ "j.I o ( ""I
8O P/L < Z" "$# /( D
!".% 8 J[ $ ";~ b wwI JAG#3 :(3. :."% W. a.F .F Wb f
^2017 ^U#>O V;I ";I "_f
d# JA |#;I 3 V"t o a%A i( c. BU% d# JA o 6 (ZY $
< .Z[D ,.[ .3/ .I _ `/ BK J ./ .Z" .$o .3/ !"/.e3 B;I 3 [
,.( P/o "T_# _3
:G H/; i#g " ¡Q W °Q Pb aF F (
7.. \..3 }`.."e;I CD !"..# : §Q..I ..3 ../ ,d..G# @.. @..F3 £..N @j.. .."#[O
^2020 d;~ _# H3E( < A3 ." < :©L $j.3 w.wI ,. ( 37Q
!"/e }`/ V"t ^";~ %"Q ,|"
,!"#
^ `/ JAG#3 _E ;" (o #8 T# Hp#; 7 6 £N :N
$ _`1 &
'( −
HN
$ &
' + b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<7: 5]
M1$0
0
)
g
#I( n'
R
[ 3 1 0.66 4.68 ^ne# ";I c pT u# J""I
8 "AGI 4
[ 3 2 0.77 4.63 ^8 @ 8 @ !# J""I
8 "AGI 2
[ 3 3 0.74 4.61 ^J7j @% MUT#8O Pj#$O c !pT !# J""I
8 "AGI 10
[ 3 4 0.76 4.61 ^¾` !# c pT u# J""I
8 "AGI 5
[ 3 5 0.858 4.58 ^# O a_A @ x( " @ c pT J""I
8O "AGI 8
[ 3 6 0.77 4.57 ^!"# ";T# H3 c pT !# ""I
8 "AGI 9
[ 3 7 0.76 4.55 ^J = c pT !# J""I
8 "AGI 6
[ 3 8 0.93 4.51 ^rj; !# eQe GAI( x(G J""I
8O "AGI 1
[ 3 9 0.82 4.51 ^{X @ c !pT !# ""I
8 "AGI 7
[ 3 10 0.87 4.35 ^£
|"
!# r (I d# x(G J""I
8O "AGI 3
[ 3 0.79 4.56
r8#
– 492 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
^ `/ JAG#3 _E ;" #8 8 6 £N : B% −
H B% + b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<8: M1$0
0
)
g
#I( n'
R
[ 3 1 0.78 4.63 ^8 @ !# r (I " rjEo !"UI 1
[ 3 2 0.73 4.57 ^"A !I HZ; < " GjEo !"UI 18
[ 3 3 0.83 4.55 ^STEM |[I c pT J =3 "AGI !"UI 12
[ 3 4 0.82 4.53 ^8 ;# @ JQ8¡ HZ; r (I " GjEo !"UI 2
– 493 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
H B% + b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<8: M1$0
0
)
g
#I( n'
R
[ 3 5 0.78 4.53 ^3#Q ";# P/o !I HZ; < " GjEo !"UI 15
[ 3 6 0.86 4.51 ^STS V# ";T# |[I c pT J =3 "AGI !"UI 13
[ 3 7 0.81 4.5 ^"E" Jw J7%( c TI " GjEo !"UI 3
[ 3 8 0.83 4.5 ^!# i " !"T d;I "p(D " GjEo "AGI !"UI 9
[ 3 9 0.83 4.5 ^ < ";~ "g "83 JT Q3 !"UI 11
[ 3 10 0.79 4.5 ^"E
9 !# V>3 JU; !# r (I " GjEo "AGI !"UI 22
[ 3 11 0.78 4.49 ^!# i ¾` !# wI " GjEo "AGI !"UI 8
[ 3 12 0.84 4.48 ^" # JZ3 d;I GjEo !"UI 21
[ 3 13 0.88 4.47 ^STSE |[I c pT J =3 "AGI !"UI 14
[ 3 14 0.84 4.47 ^";Z L I HZ; < " GjEo !"UI 17
[ 3 15 0.82 4.43 ^{U#>O d d;I HZ; < GjEo !"UI 19
[ 3 16 0.97 4.42 ^!# < ( " GjEo "AGI !"UI 7
[ 3 17 0.94 4.39 ^!# < "#[ GjEo "AGI !"UI 10
[ 3 18 0.87 4.36 ^""# "Z"
d E HZ; r (I " GjEo !"UI 4
[ 3 19 0.89 4.35 ^©L J>7 !I HZ; < " GjEo !"UI 16
[ 3 20 0.95 4.33 ^"G# V# JQ8¡ 8 r (I " GjEo !"UI 6
[ 3 21 1.03 4.26 ^"G# L I HZ; < " GjEo !"UI 5
3 22 1.00 4.17 ^(Z6 #3U :M(T JZ3 d;I GjEo !"UI 20
[ 3 0.86 4.45
r8#
Z3X#8 j#E \3 K "; 3 J>3 \3 I c. .T r.8#3 o 8 .6 \.3 £#
./g < 2030 . "$I @q < ` ,;83 < CD nj.I ."> d./ ,4.45 ¯. ._ `/ JAG#3
d.vA; ,@. !# r c (/w3 U#> F ..;" (..o .."# M..[ ..> ^.." ..T3 ..[
Gj..EL (.G# ;J.A3 S(..~ !".# : c. ,.. .."T"AG# ..8 U.. Jy Gj..E»
.3
Z ,|[# `/ V3 #I ,H/; GAI( .."EF C L ..AI( < .."A ..GAI( Gj..EL
^Pb `/ "T_# ;";
"±o u `/ ,·# c 4.57 4.63 ¯ r8#
2020 _# H3E( \N : :A3 I w.I O d.# . GjEL " E6 @"eI
– 494 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 495 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
^ `/ JAG#3 _E ;" #8 Hp#E 9 6 £N :5 g'D −
H5 g'D + b7 )RD R 0
$ 8
#I(1 m*F n' H<9: M1$0
R 0
) g
#I( n'
[ 3 1 0.84 4.61 ^^%#e3 ¢ ,"N3 ,|"T3 HZ; < 8L ®Eo V;I 2
[ 3 2 0.87 4.60 ^p73 ;#3 !TI "8o x(~ X#8 1
[ 3 3 0.70 4.59 ^[( `v# J" HIE \3 :e#8O 15
[ 3 4 0.80 4.58 ^dT"T @A !T# "8o "AGI 10
[ 3 5 0.73 4.5 ^HZ; < "U"XjI JA# "AGI 5
[ 3 6 0.83 4.5 ^d ML Y%73 °"> c # !T# "8o "AGI 9
[ 3 7 0.86 4.5 ^ej JA#7 ;;T3 !TI "8o "AGI 3
[ 3 8 0.85 4.49 ^" " °"T !TI "8o "AGI 14
[ 3 9 0.79 4.49 ^!T# J o JA xf \3 T_# < " "8o "AGI 18
[ 3 10 0.87 4.48 ^8» "3 ; MjED 4
[ 3 11 0.80 4.48 ^" J/²O °"T !TI "8o "AGI 13
[ 3 12 0.83 4.44 ^8 i#Q3 c HZ; < ;;T3 JA# "AGI 6
[ 3 13 0.89 4.44 ^!# < ¾` !T# "8o "AGI 12
[ 3 14 0.92 4.42 ^HZ; < TIMSS @F3 " JT Q 8o F#8 8
[ 3 15 0.95 4.39 ^" "E
9 !T# "8o d;AI 16
[ 3 16 1.00 4.36 ^!# < (>L !TI "8o "AGI 11
[ 3 17 1.05 4.33 ^ i#Q3 c %( # < w$(3 ;;T3 JA# "AGI 7
[ 3 18 1.00 4.28 ^A8_ JA#O "AGI 17
[ 3 0.87 4.48
r8#
U.T .k `"e;# "³ o OD ," H/;3 T BE$ WUUX# M³ o 9 6 WA
}`./ X#.8 c. W. :.> Z;3 A8L ¯. a."% ,. @j. ._ `/ c " [
`.. ,!Å.. !..T# J..Z3 ..N ,"..8L J..A V.."t o ..$ ^4.48
.. Q.. r..8#
".8o H/.; (.GI P/ !"# : BN ." .T3 .[ c. BU% _ ` T#
._# H3.E( < JZ#Q %$ !T# !"# ! (. ^4.61 – 4.28 W. JG.8# !"> B% (I
^2017 ,!"# : 2020 d;~ #I JAG#3 \3 _ `/ |;I 3 µ $ \3
;J..AG# \..3 .
m . J..A B;..I ..$ < |. ;I !#. ,.""AG . H/;3 !TI "8
– 496 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
.A"b 3. :D (e ¡I "TK .."AGI ..Z;3 ,H/..; }`../ !..TI "..8o (..G#
.> M(.[9 }`./ @.F3 o .f ,""# " ,8» "3 ; MjED ,"U"Xj# JA#O
m : |#TA~
. |.TD @.A> {EF !"# < T 8 B..% (I .." ..T3 ..[ B.."Y% ..Z"t
^1429 "AGI G#3 o Ã%7 $ ^4.50–4.48 W G8#3
$J7 J) _1JR $0 a :p Mi* +0j "AGI G#3 ,%( # < w$(3 ;;T3 JA#
2J3 R 0
) α=0.05 ($ ^* ,." T3 [ c 7U% ,A8_ JA#O
J J J J b7 U. Jy J«¡. ."$I @q < |Eo a%A i(
J, J- &
J'( #$J% !" ."q# JO3 : V ( d"I
8O Pb
??P1 NO cr ^G 2030 ¡.I WQ.K ,"88L !"# J[(l WQK c
J ..A# X#..8¨ ¡Q.. c.. .. [Æ :.D !".# :. \. |.E¶ ,!"# < (e
J.[ D − x (e JOO _# ;T#Q J;" ..%( < ..ZT"AG# M..A ,W..AG# \`../ ..8
^10 6 £N $ §FEo −($y u;6 nv#3 − ,J.[(X .² < !ZQ."8 ].y .$ yD ,EF
HNO cr QR1 b7 )RD R 0
) _1? (() $$I <:
s e H<10: M1$0
($ ^* ] 8
#I( m*F n' NO
α=0.05 () ^* $7 ej () T _1R )01 u*
– 497 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
c.. ..T ..[ < P7#.. ..[ o ..$ . x (. .[ . 10 6 \3 £#
,T Q. .7F ."(e JE (G# JAG#3 (G# JAG#3 c ;" T3 [ < @j
\3 WUUX# i " ;> [ a%A }Àe < . x (. J.[ W.% < ,u;.6 n.v# iwI
,.7F JE < (G# JAG#3 \#
Ç ,E9 P./L¤ d/ HZ; JE3 µ (GI JAG#3
V#.. :«..A3 ..f Jy HZ;.. < ..3/ ..E[ £U. ¥!.T# ".8o u.# J""I
8
@.F3 :.[ !"/.e3 E[ c /"$I ,:©L $ CD @j "#; }`/ a%A w ^E9
/"$I ,"I" JZ ,"UXj JZ ";I ."> JM.[ . J.E }`. GAI( JAG#
JA#O |"
!# ªG# ¾` !# c < J# d# (G# ¦A3 J[% V3 Q;3
d.# !.T# !#. "8o \3 /n "U"Xj# .Z" BU.E d# ," H/;3 (GI ª =3
Z;".I ."± . T# 3/ (GI d%E I Q;3 ,2004 ,( "
#3 ª = T"
X#.8 !.I ^.""AG H/;3 < $o [ !"..# B.. o d..# 2030 .. J..Z[I V..3 ..o
JOO ._# ANOVA {.%L \.A# @"K .3 ./ ,Z" nA$
m AE[
m ,fU
m "8 H/;
^11 6 £N $ e"q nv#3 x (e ^;" (o V"t |" eI
H?P cr QR1 b7 )RD R 0
) _1? (() $$I . aA e H<11: M1$0
aA #X T'D T'D
VW T'D
. 8+ $7* U
B
#I(
#I(
#I(
#I(
#I(
n'
n'
n'
n'
n'
($ #
0.43 0.96 0.60 4.52 0.73 4.23 0.33 4.73 0.59 4.56 0.77 4.30 P/L
0.16 1.6 0.66 4.46 0.45 4.46 0.55 4.41 0.84 4.33 1.16 3.74 i#_
0.44 0.94 0.69 4.58 0.57 4.60 0.31 4.80 0.79 4.47 0.77 4.30 u# J""I
8
0.32 1.1 0.71 4.48 0.45 4.68 0.38 4.67 0.81 4.41 0.93 4.05 GjEL
0.46 0.91 0.70 4.44 0.16 4.56 0.32 4.71 0.80 4.48 1.06 4.15 !T#
0.35 1.1 0.62 4.49 0.47 4.51 0.32 4.66 0.74 4.45 0.83 4.11 r8#
– 498 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
T Q J8 Hp#E | Bf o 3 V3 T#3 JM[ . x (. .[ 11 6 (ZY¨ a"%
w."#
w.$(3 8 /( o H/; }`/ B ;I d# J.AG#3 c. .;" (o T3 [ < @j
.8 1436 ,J".N( !"I < dF_A ,#.X Zvj. d.# .e"q n.v# iwI (G#
^2014 3% \Q% 8 2012 \(³ 3% w ^3 @$ i#Q3 c r8# < ]y
,
:v Mi* +0j \.3 .;" (.o V."t .$ CD ."#; }`/ a%A
, - &
'( #$% wx !" / ." :.s .# {`. W/¡ WUUX#
?2030 )* + .."$L !Z#..8¿ V..> \..3 ,..""# .."
S
..T3 U..I M..; !..I ¡Q.. c.. .. [Æ «A !Z$#% ,H/; "3 < " "F_A
£.N 1 @j. ,.""AG . H/;3 JE !Z7~ ,Us |[ c :G H/;
^|IE3 S
T U# y; CD .ND ,H/.; }`.b 3b (G# J["#% c
. H/.;3 (.G# J.AG# }`/ |#;I 3 $
– 499 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
:..A3 (.>D − 3
(..GI :.A3 !..8 .K Z..../o \... !"...# : 7...D − 2
d;~. ._#
H3E( \N ""AG H/;3 ."T_# 2020 d;~. _# H3E( < ""I
8O
." J.Z6 $j. !"# : Z" P=I c. V. ( d"I
.8O P.b .$o yD ;2030
^UUX# \.I !.T# !".# "8o H/; (GI
(GI :A >7 Jy J«¡ K − 4 ".8 H/.; "; < [ yE (G# :A3
..K V..3 ,..ZT"TK J.."³ ..""AG .. H/.;3 :.A3 ,.G c. .# !".# _E _#
^:A `"e;I @%( ML °"> J«¡3 !"I (GI w$(3 MjED < BF !"# f
,( W33 W J>7 K % − 5 ^STEM J"N( 8;b ";T#
^""AG H/;3 JE3 < .." ..""AG .. H/..;3 ..[% − 3
W3.3 W. .3M H3 " `"e;I − 6 J"..fI ]..y B_..N o ..$ (..G# CD ,..
– 500 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
:
*e , ^""AG H/;3 JE3 ,(
H/.;3 (G# %
T P/L :#$% − 1 .. H/..;3 :..A J..#;3 .."AGI − 7
,2030 . M.N < EF %( ""AG ^2030 :G ""AG
P./o "U. .G;3 #.8 ,i :" P/o ....E9 i#Q....3 !....TI ....[(3 − 8
^..f @..$ < .. H/..;3 "..8 PeU.. ..[( !..T# ..G .. ..TT_# J..[(X
^%
T H/;3 P/o £N 12 6 ^( H3 :#
– 501 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
– 502 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 503 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
P..b ..$o ,!"..# :.. 2020 .._# H3.E( BJJJJ%1 _JJJJ1 &
JJJJ'( − 3
".88L J.Z !"T wwI c H3E u3s J""I
..8 c.. S
..T U..# w..$ :*JJ
$
."TF ."#[O Gj.EL c. w"$
. 7G rj..; !#.. eQ.. c.. ..pT u..# x(..~
HZ;.. A%U.. .."Z"
.."G# "..N( ._$ .G c. $¡I /A# ,C L [
^]y £N 14 6 ^Z" $j AQE : d"I
.8O P.b V3 # 3 / ,!# "
}.% {`. !.T# !"# "8o (GI V (
– 504 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 505 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
– 506 –
./1439+2018 '( ,2030 !"# $% ,3 ,30 ,
– 507 –
^^^EF %( ""AG H/;3 (GI JAG# S
T3 UI :{L WQ% \ \Q% \
***
– 508 –