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Slide CH 2 - Decision Making
Slide CH 2 - Decision Making
FOR ENGINEERS
Instructor: Lai Van Tai
CONTENT
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Decision making
Chapter 3: Accounting and Finance
Chapter 4: Marketing management
Chapter 5: Organizational structure and HR Management
Chapter 6: Operation management
Chapter 7: Quality Management
Chapter 8: Project management
Chapter 2: DECISION MAKING
1. Primary concept
2. Decision types
3. Decision process
4. Decision under uncertainty circumstances
5. Decision under risk condition
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative methods
for decision making
1. INTRODUCTION
- Concept definition
- Assumptions for behavioral reasonably
-Should have clear objectives
-All alternatives should be clearly determined
-Weight of criteria should be clearly state and fixed /
showing favorable levels of decision makers
-Enough time and cost for collect data and info for
decision making
-The final decision always being the best choice to
achieve objectives
2. DECISION TYPES
Finding alternatives
o Maximax
o Maximin
o Equal likely
o Hurwiez
o Minimax
4. DECISION UNDER UNCERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES
STATUS – Benefits
Alternativ
es S1 S2 S3 S4 Max
STATUS – Benefits
Alternativ
es S1 S2 S3 S4 Min
Do nothing !
4. DECISION UNDER UNCERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES
o Equal likely
STATUS – Benefits
Alternativ
es S1 S2 S3 S4 Mean
o Minimax è OL matrix
STATUS – Benefits
Alternat
ives S1 S2 S3 S4
A1 100 300 -50 800
STATUS – Benefits
Alternativ
es S1 S2 S3 S4 Mean
o Maximax
o Maximin
o Equally likely
o Hurwiez
o Minimax
5. DECISION UNDER RISK CONDITIONS
o Using Decision tables
n EMV approach
STATUS
Alternativ
es S1 S2 S3 S4 EMV
STATUS – OL
Alternat
ives S1 S2 S3 S4 EMV
A1 1100 100 550 200 385
o Quantitative methods
o Linear programming
o Multi-Criteria Decision Making
o Decision making from Utility theory
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative
methods for decision making
Modeling
Data collect
Analyzing/ solving/results
Test of solutions
Analyzing results
Analyzing/ solving/results
Test of solutions
Analyzing results
Modeling
Data characteristics
Data sources
Data collect
Problems in data collection
Analyzing/ solving/results process
Test of solutions
Analyzing results
Modeling
solving/ equation system solutions
Trial and error method
Data collect
List out and comparing between Alt.
Analyzing/ solving/results Using mathematical method
(algorithm method)
Test of solutions
Analyzing results
No
Releasing
yes
the Is it
constraints optimum?
No
Set up: correct
Problem
yes
yes
statement: Linear Existing Does it
-Target
relationship? Feasible limit the
- Decision var
function
constrain searching Findings Final
-constraints area? area? results
- Target
function
incorrect
Replace by non-
linear models to
solve
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative
methods for decision making
Target: Profit
Profit [USD/ton] 18 21
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative
methods for decision making
Target: Profit
Supposed that: X is the amount of Rice produced
Y is the amount of Mill produced
20X+
Y
Objective function Z = 18X + 21Y
5Y =
Constraint function
6X
+4
250
Land 2X + 3Y £ 50
Y=
Water 6X + 4Y £ 90
90
HR 20X + 5Y £ 250
X, Y ≥ 0 A
18
B
X+
21 2X
Y +3
=0 Y
=5
0
C
D X
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative
methods for decision making
Target: Cost
Inputs/ material /components Types of Product
• Component A 5 10 90
• Component B 4 3 48
Cost [USD/ton] 2 3
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative
methods for decision making
Using the weighted average value for comparison and make decision
6. Mathematical models and Quantitative
methods for decision making
0,30
0,15
0,05