Presentation and regression analysis of population, economic, and environmental

data
Shantha Kumar Parameswaran (23206616)
UCD School of Biosystems and Food Engineering, UCD Belfield

Introduction
The concentration of individuals of a species in a given geographic area is generally known as population
density. This population density can be utilized to measure demographic information and analyze how it
relates to infrastructure, ecosystems, and human well-being. It is a crucial demographic metric that
enables us to determine how inhabited or underpopulated a given region or area is. By dividing a region's
total population by its land area, population density can be determined. Moreover, population density is a
crucial consideration in many areas, including urban planning, resource management, and comprehending
the distribution of people in a region. It can vary dramatically from one location to another. In comparison
to places with lower population densities, high-population-density locations typically experience more
traffic congestion, a greater need for services, and other economic and social dynamics.
Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a crucial economic indicator that establishes the monetary worth of
each good and service produced within the boundaries of a nation over a particular period. It is used to
assess an economy's size and general performance, and it is often monitored annually or quarterly.
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), GDP can be defined as the total dollar worth of all
goods and services produced in a nation each year. It can be calculated by (summing the value of every
final product and service and deducting the cost of transitional products), or by adding all revenue from
investments, salaries, and profits. There are three main ways to calculate GDP: production (the goods and
services created in the economy), expenditure (the money spent by firms, families, and the government),
and income (the money made by enterprises, the money earned by households, and the money collected
by the government). (Craig McLaren, 2022). Theoretically, these ought to add up to the same quantity. To
measure the economy, however, a vast array of data sources is generally needed, and the data that are
acquired usually accumulate with time as everything becomes accessible. Therefore, this indicates that
there are minor differences between the three measurements.
The use of electricity or energy in a system while utilizing a source is known as energy consumption and
it generally varies according to the infrastructure and location. Additionally, it refers to the consumption
of primary energy before its conversion into other end-use fuels, that is equivalent to domestic production
plus imports and stock adjustments, minus exports, and fuel used by ships and planes for overseas
freightage. Conversely, the total energy used by all households and industrial sectors is referred to as
global energy consumption. Differences in income levels, views regarding the adoption of efficiency
measures, the various types of fuels used, and the climate zones people live in are typical causes of
disparities between nations. The biggest primary energy usage is found in the Asia and Pacific area. With
a population of more than a billion and an economy that is still expanding quickly, China is at present the
world's greatest main energy consumer. Therefore, a nation's growth, international competitiveness,
economic security, and prosperity will all be significantly impacted by the choice of technology, policy,
and economic levers utilized to reform and extend its energy usage. The units of measurement for
consumption are Watts, Giga Joules per year, and kilograms of oil equivalent per year (kg/a)
a) Source of your data.

The data for this study was taken from WorldData.info which provides a complete detailed list of countries all over the world along with the
key indicators. This data is reliable and dependable as the sources come from publicly accessible trusted databases. The sources of this data
include: https://www.worlddata.info/
Other data sources that were used for the study include institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Our World in Data

https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
https://databank.worldbank.org/embed/CountryProfile/id/b450fd57/tbar/y/dd/y
https://www.adb.org/mobile/basic-statistics-2021/
https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2021/final-consumption
https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61545852

Table 1: List of countries along with their GDP per capita, energy use per capita, and population density in persons per square kilometer

No. Continent Country Status Population Population GDP ($) GDP per Energy Electric Land Surface
Density (sq. capita ($) Consumption Power Area (sq. km)
km) (bbl of oil Consumption
equivalent (kWh per
per capita) capita)

1 Asia South Korea Developed 51,628,000 514.5 1.67E+12 32,254.62 18.37 10,290.09 100,339
2 Asia Japan Developed 125,125,000 331.0 5.01E+12 33,815.32 10.908 7,222 377,970
3 Asia India Developing 1,425,776,000 433.7 3.39E+12 2,374.21 1.26 862.26 3,287,259
4 Asia China Developing 1,425,671,000 149.1 1.80E+13 12,599.80 3.586 4,822 9,562,910
5 Asia Indonesia Developing 275,501,000 144.0 1.32E+12 4,788.00 2.185 931.91 1,913,580
6 Asia Philippines Developing 115,559,000 385.2 4.04E+11 3,498.51 1.666 786.84 300,000
7 Oceania Australia Developed 25,979,000 3.356 1.68E+12 64,491.43 16.496 9,138 7,741,220
8 Oceania New Developed 5,124,000 19.14 2.47E+11 48,249.26 13.149 8,034.55 267,710
Zealand
 9 Oceania Papua New Developing 10,143,000 21.91 3.06E+10 3,020.27 1.375 364.96 462,840
Guinea
10 Africa South Africa Developing 59,894,000 49.13 4.06E+11 6,776.48 3.794 3,377.40 1,219,090
11 Africa Nigeria Developing 218,541,000 236.6 4.77E+11 2,184.42 0.807 112.62 923,770
12 Africa Egypt Developing 110,990,000 110.8 4.77E+11 4,295.41 2.664 1,343.17 1,001,450
13 Africa Algeria Developing 44,903,000 18.85 1.92E+11 4,273.92 3.662 1,484.21 2,381,740
14 Europe United Developed 66,971,000 274.9 3.07E+12 45,850.43 8.601 4,325.55 243,610
Kingdom
15 Europe Germany Developed 84,080,000 235.1 4.07E+12 48,432.46 10.186 5,950.89 357,580
16 Europe France Developed 67,936,000 123.7 2.78E+12 40,963.84 9.072 6,958.04 549,087
17 Europe Spain Developed 47,615,000 94.11 1.40E+12 29,350.17 10.18 4,899.02 505,935
18 Europe Ukraine Developing 38,000,000 62.96 1.61E+11 4,223.76 2.383 3,277.21 603,550
19 Europe Poland Developing 37,562,000 120.1 6.88E+11 18,321.28 6.78 3,972.22 312,680
20 North Canada Developed 38,930,000 3.899 2.14E+12 54,966.49 24.652 13,863.25 9,984,670
America
21 North The United Developed 333,288,000 33.9 2.55E+13 76,398.59 22.498 11,695.27 9,831,510
America States of
America
22 North Mexico Developing 127,504,000 64.91 1.41E+12 11,091.31 5.521 2,096.72 1,964,375
America
23 South Brazil Developing 215,313,000 25.28 1.92E+12 8,917.67 5.327 2,512.60 8,515,770
America
24 South Argentina Developing 46,235,000 16.63 6.33E+11 13686.01 5.368 2,629.27 2,780,400
America
25 South Chile Developing 19,604,000 25.91 3.01E+11 15355.51 6.734 3,841.21 756,700
America

Note: Unit for Energy Consumption is considered as bbl of oil equivalent per capita and kWh per capita.
b) From the raw data that I have gathered, a table of the countries along with their
GDP per capita, energy use per capita, and population density in persons per square kilometer
have been created.

Table 2: Analysis of Data

No. Continent Country GDP per Energy Electric Population

capita ($) Consumption Power Density
(bbl of oil Consumption (sq. km)
equivalent per (kWh per
capita) capita)
1 Asia South Korea 32,254.62 18.37 10,290.09 514.5
2 Asia Japan 33,815.32 10.908 7,222 331.0
3 Asia India 2,374.21 1.26 862.26 433.7
4 Asia China 12,599.80 3.586 4,822 149.1
5 Asia Indonesia 4,788.00 2.185 931.91 144.0
6 Asia Philippines 3,498.51 1.666 786.84 385.2
7 Oceania Australia 64,491.43 16.496 9,138 3.356
8 Oceania New Zealand 48,249.26 13.149 8,034.55 19.14
9 Oceania Papua New 3,020.27 1.375 364.96 21.91
Guinea
10 Africa South Africa 6,776.48 3.794 3,377.40 49.13
11 Africa Nigeria 2,184.42 0.807 112.62 236.6
12 Africa Egypt 4,295.41 2.664 1,343.17 110.8
13 Africa Algeria 4,273.92 3.662 1,484.21 18.85
14 Europe United 45,850.43 8.601 4,325.55 274.9
Kingdom
15 Europe Germany 48,432.46 10.186 5,950.89 235.1
16 Europe France 40,963.84 9.072 6,958.04 123.7
17 Europe Spain 29,350.17 10.18 4,899.02 94.11
18 Europe Ukraine 4,223.76 2.383 3,277.21 62.96
19 Europe Poland 18,321.28 6.78 3,972.22 120.1
20 North America Canada 54,966.49 24.652 13,863.25 3.899
21 North America The United 76,398.59 22.498 11,695.27 33.9
States of
America
22 North America Mexico 11,091.31 5.521 2,096.72 64.91
23 South America Brazil 8,917.67 5.327 2,512.60 25.28
24 South America Argentina 13686.01 5.368 2,629.27 16.63
25 South America Chile 15355.51 6.734 3,841.21 25.91
c) In part a) did your data source allow you to include figures for all three measures for all the
major countries of all continents of the world? If not what type of countries was it not possible
to include, and why do you suppose this might be the case?

Yes, the data source, WorldData.info, Asian Development Bank, and Our World in Data (Global
Change Data Lab) did allow me to include figures from all three measures for all the major countries
of the world. However, that was not the case for World Bank Data where the data on energy
consumption was not available as of the year 2021. This could be due to a number of reasons namely
the datasets that exist are not available across the public domain as they may have been privately
licensed or protected by paywalls.
Moreover, in particular, low- and middle-income developing countries frequently lack the means and
capacity to produce, disseminate, and use data and statistics. This could be due to the fact that these
countries have limited availability or restricted access to reliable data sources, as they tend to rely on
funding from international organizations and other significant donors.

d) Using a spreadsheet, or other appropriate software, create a graph of the energy consumption
per capita as a function of GDP per capita. Add a best-fit line for the values and report the R2
value for the analysis.

Graph 1(a): Energy consumption (kWh per capita) vs GDP per capita
The coefficient of R2 value of 0.7775 which is equivalent to 78% indicates that the difference in energy
consumption (kWh per capita) of each country is interdependent with the GDP per capita which is good.
 Graph 1(b): Energy consumption (bbl of oil equivalent per capita) vs GDP per capita
Similarly, the coefficient of R2 value of 0.8018 which is equivalent to 80% indicates that the difference in
energy consumption (bbl of oil per capita) of each country is interdependent with the GDP per capita
which is good.

e) Carry out a graph analysis of energy consumption per capita as a function of population
density. Add a best-fit line for the values and report the R2 value for the analysis.
 Graph 2(a): Energy consumption (kWh per capita) vs Population density (km2)

The regression analysis (R2) value for energy consumption per capita vs population density is around 0.101. This
means that there is only 10 percent probability that energy consumption prediction will be correct

Graph 2(b): Energy consumption (bbl of oil equivalent per capita) vs Population density (km2)

The regression analysis (R2) value for energy consumption per capita vs population density is around 0.13. This
means that there is only 13 percent probability that energy consumption prediction will be correct

f) Using the results from d) and e) discuss how well GDP per capita and population density
predict energy consumption. Briefly explain what other independent variables might improve
the model.

The results from the graph clearly indicate that the GDP per capita has a direct relationship with the
amount of energy consumption by each country. It can be observed that higher economic growth
countries require increased energy use due to demand in the household, industrial, and transport
sectors. For instance, the OECD member countries namely Canada and the USA indicate a higher
fuel-electricity usage with respect to GDP per capita as their energy consumption per person is twice
as high as that in Europe and more than 800 times higher than that in developing nations. (BBC
Bitesize, 2020). The reason for that is mainly due to the presence of manufacturing industries that
consume a lot of energy, higher demand for cooling and heating of households, and more affordable
electricity prices.
 Secondly, this is not the case for population density in relation to energy consumption. It can be seen
that an increase in population would only lead to a decrease in the consumption of energy. This is due
to the fact that the majority of the countries that have large populations are developing or
underdeveloped and as a result, they may not have the financial capacity to develop new power
infrastructure to meet the rising energy demand with respect to the population.

Some of the interdependent factors that might improve the models include:

Subsidies and incentives: Certain developing countries are provided subsidies and incentives for
energy generation; however, this is only for energy that cannot be replenished namely coal or oil due
to its availability and cost-effective despite there being serious implications in terms of GHG
emissions

Climate: The use of energy is higher depending on the weather. For instance, cold countries such as
Canada tend to use high electricity consumption, especially during the winter for heating their
households, etc.

g) Given the global nature of the world economy what are some of the possible flaws in using
energy consumption figures broken down by country to make statements about the relative
energy consumption per capita of different countries?
In an age of globalization, the majority of the non-OECD nations namely China, India, and Indonesia
produce the majority of the world's energy, but it’s the developed nations (which account for fewer
than 20% of the global population) consume the output supply. Up until that point, the majority of the
energy-for-development discussion had been on how to use local resources, particularly oil, to
support sustainable growth. The classic pathway was selling these raw materials to industrialized
OECD nations to generate income that could then be utilized to support more domestic investments,
which would ultimately reduce poverty and foster prosperity. For instance, countries like the USA
have established numerous manufacturing and production facilities in China for business opportunity
purposes and the ability to acquire a cost-effective labor force. This technology transfer may have
helped spur the growth of the Chinese economy on a global level despite not being able to fully
utilize the energy for their own consumption but to be exported to the USA instead.
Conversely, in developing countries, where tourism plays a large role, waste generation rates per
person are among the highest. Due to a lack of waste management systems and the scarcity of land
that can be used as landfills (or dumps), these countries are particularly vulnerable to waste disposal
issues. In order to mitigate this problem, the wastes that have been created are generally exported to
developed countries for energy generation. For example, Norway is currently leading the way in
waste-to-energy imports where they purchase rubbish from different countries in an effort to generate
energy by burning the wastes in an incinerator. As a result, they are able to achieve energy recovery
rates of 35 % and 40% from imported wastes.
Developing countries with a population of more than 100 million tend to experience issues related to
energy consumption due to the challenges surrounding policy implementation and the cost of
infrastructure to facilitate the energy conversion process. Therefore, it can be said that the calculation
of energy consumption per capita according to different countries is flawed due to the disparity in
terms of energy production and consumption.

Conclusion
It can be assumed that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are interrelated with energy usage due to the
burning of coal and oil to generate energy to power homes and industrial sectors. Moreover, major
cities utilize 80% of the world's energy and generate over 60 percent of greenhouse gas emissions,
according to UN-Habitat. This staggering figure alone helps us understand the significance of
emission control in an effort to tackle the ongoing climate crisis. On top of that, improvements should
be made to the existing waste-to-energy generation facilities and work on developing reliable and
environmentally friendly technologies that can help mitigate GHG emissions.
Although humans have always had an impact on the globe as a whole, their usage and consumption of
the earth's finite natural resources have increased dramatically during the past few centuries as a
result of the enormous growth in the human population. Researchers have created a means to track
and measure humanity's ecological footprint, or the entire quantity of Earth's natural resources needed
per capita to support a particular lifestyle, in order to comprehend and lessen the negative effects of
this impact.
This critical foundation is provided by the IPAT model, which looks at how population (P), affluence
(A), technology (T), and impact (I) affect the environment.

I=PxAxT

The I = PAT formula is a helpful tool for analysing the relationships between the variables that
influence environmental change, but critics have identified two significant flaws in this method. First,
depending on the environmental impact in question, the contributing elements to any given impact
can vary greatly (for instance, several factors can contribute to ozone layer depletion and biodiversity
loss). Second, while the equation implies that P, A, and T function independently, there is a good
chance that they can interact.
Furthermore, the rebound effect, also known as the take-back effect or RE in conservation and energy
economics, is the decrease in anticipated gains from new technologies that improve resource use
efficiency due to systemic adjustments. These reactions typically have a tendency to counteract the
positive effects of new technology or other actions. Although most of the research on the rebound
effect focuses on how technological advancements affect energy consumption, the theory may be
used to explain how any natural resource or other input, like labor, is used. When maintaining
consumption as constant, the rebound effect is typically stated as a ratio of the lost benefit to the
predicted environmental benefit.
As per the analysis from the graph, it can be understood that GDP per capita certainly plays a pivotal
role in predicting energy usage. Although there is a strong need for building energy infrastructures to
meet the growing electricity demand, priority should be given to the percentage of CO2 being emitted
into the atmosphere. In order to quantify the emission of GHG (CO2) associated with energy
consumption, the Kaya equation will be the best tool for that.
Some of the key parameters of this equation include P, population of country, GDP/P, population per
capita, E/GDP, energy intensity per unit of GDP, CO2/E, carbon emissions (less sequestration) per
unit of energy consumed

Table 3: The comparison of GDP/P and emission of CO2

From the table above, it can be deduced that individual countries across different continents can
leverage this analysis to help position themselves against other countries in terms of economic
performance along with the emissions being generated. In order to reduce carbon emissions
transitioning to renewable energy would be the best viable option. For instance, India has pledged
to reduce its country's greenhouse gas emissions to 45% of 2005 levels by 2030 and to net zero
by 2070. To achieve these goals, India has proposed a number of plans namely introducing target
emissions in the industrial, automotive, and energy sectors as well as programs that significantly
expand forest cover and encourage non-fossil energy production.
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