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Safety Science 153 (2022) 105806

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/safety

Pedestrian-vehicle interaction severity level assessment at uncontrolled


intersections using machine learning algorithms
Lalam Govinda , M.R. Sai Kiran Raju, K.V.R. Ravi Shankar *
Transportation Division, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Warangal, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: As a consequence of the rapid growth of vehicular traffic, there is an increase in interactions between vehicles
Threshold values and pedestrians. The severity of these interactions varies with pedestrian, vehicle and roadway geometric
Risk indicator characteristics. In the absence of real crash data, Surrogate Safety Measures (SSMs) are used to analyse the
Surrogate safety measures
pedestrian-vehicle (P-V) interactions. The present study is intended to propose threshold risk indicator (RI)
Pedestrian-vehicle interaction
Post encroachment time
values for severe P-V interactions using both pedestrian and vehicle characteristics. A multilinear regression
Support vector machines (MLR) P-V interaction model was developed using SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software.
Videography method was used to collect traffic data from two 4-legged uncontrolled intersections. Pedestrian
and vehicular data were extracted from the video using DataFromSky viewer software and risk indicator was
calculated using post encroachment time and approaching vehicular speed. The interactions between pedestrians
and vehicles were classified as normal conflicts and severe conflicts based on visual observations during the data
extraction process. Python interface with support vector machines (SVM) algorithm was used to get threshold RI
values for various pedestrian (gender and speed) and vehicle (type) characteristics.
From SVM results, it was observed that the threshold RI value for severe interactions decreases as the
pedestrian crossing speed increases for the same vehicle and pedestrian characteristics. MLR results showed that
pedestrian gender, age and speed, vehicle type and speed, interaction location and crossing position have a
significant effect on RI. The results can be used to evaluate pedestrian-vehicle interaction severity level at an
uncontrolled intersection.

1. Introduction risks and there is a possibility of pedestrian interactions with different


vehicle types. Pedestrian risk-taking behaviour can be improved with
Road traffic injury has been the eighth leading cause of deaths for all proper pedestrian safety measures and a better understanding of the
age groups across the world with 1.35 million deaths occurring each pedestrian-vehicle (P-V) interactions.
year due to road accidents (W. H. Organization, 2018). There is one
serious road accident occurring every minute while one death occurs 1.1. Post encroachment time (PET) and risk indicator (RI)
every four minutes due to a road accident in India. The GDP of any
country is highly influenced by road accidents and India loses 3% of its An accident is a rare and random event, so it is not possible to predict
GDP due to road accidents. Despite some fluctuations, the number of the severity of an accident. An indirect method i.e. surrogate safety
road accidents and the number of persons injured were in a declining measures based on the conflict technique was used to analyse the
trend from 2010 onwards (MORTH-2018, 2019). severity levels. PET is one of the surrogate safety measures, mostly used
Even though technology related to road safety has improved, to analyse the pedestrian-vehicle (P-V) interactions. It is defined as the
pedestrian safety at pedestrian crossings is still a major problem. This time difference between the first road user who leaves the conflict area
problem is more severe in countries like India because of the aggressive and the second road user who arrives at the conflict area (Allen and Shin,
behaviour of either driver or pedestrian and mixed traffic conditions 1967). It can be calculated based on two criteria, whether pedestrian
(Lobjois et al., 2013). Due to low priority and high waiting times, while crosses the conflict zone first or vehicle crosses the conflict zone first.
crossing the road, pedestrians are trying to cross the road with a lot of Because PET alone is insufficient to estimate or measure the injury

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: lalamgovinda2246@student.nitw.ac.in (L. Govinda), ravikvr@nitw.ac.in (K.V.R. Ravi Shankar).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105806
Received 9 March 2021; Received in revised form 22 April 2022; Accepted 26 April 2022
Available online 2 May 2022
0925-7535/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L. Govinda et al. Safety Science 153 (2022) 105806

risk of a potential collision, a novel surrogate safety indicator i.e. risk different vehicle types based on the cumulative frequency distribution.
indicator was used involving approaching vehicle speeds and post There is no chance of interaction between pedestrian and vehicle when
encroachment time (Scholl et al., 2019). Risk indicator (RI) is defined as PET value is greater than 5.5 s and highly dangerous conflict is possible
the ratio of approaching vehicle speed over post encroachment time. when the PET value is less than or equal to 2.0 sec. The threshold PET
value for highly dangerous conflict was 2.5 s, 3.06 s, 3.83 s, 2.37 s, and
Approaching Vehicle Speed
Risk Indicator = (1) 2.25 s for car, two-wheeler, LCV (light commercial vehicle), HCV (heavy
Post Encroachment Time
commercial vehicle), and auto respectively.
Most of the previous studies have focused on the analysis and
2. Background
modelling of P-V interactions but very few studies have proposed
threshold values of SSMs to classify the P-V interactions severity levels.
Conducting traffic conflict studies could be an effective alternative
Some studies classified interactions based on vehicular speeds (Scholl
for safety analysis because of the high correlation between the historical
et al., 2019) while other studies classified interactions using pedestrian
crash data and the observed traffic conflicts (Qi and Yuan, 2012). A large
gender, speed and vehicle type (Marisamynathan and Vedagiri, 2020).
number of studies on pedestrian safety and risk behaviour identified
These studies did not include both pedestrian and vehicular speeds at a
factors which influence pedestrian safety. Previous studies identified
time to classify P-V interaction severity levels. The present study was
various pedestrian, vehicle, road, and environmental factors that influ­
intended to develop the threshold values of SSMs using both pedestrian
ence pedestrian safety and risk-taking behaviour while crossing the
(gender and speed) and vehicle (type and speed) characteristics. Also, it
road. Pedestrian age has the most significant effect while gender has a
intended to develop a multilinear P-V interaction model.
small effect on pedestrian walking speeds (Gates et al., 2006; Rav­
ishankar and Nair, 2018). Female and older pedestrians take lower risk
compared to other pedestrians (Harrell, 1991; Jain et al., 2014; Ols­ 3. Data collection and extraction
zewski et al., 2015). Around 80% of fatal accidents occur in the case of
elderly pedestrians, drunk pedestrians, and pedestrians in hours of The present study was conducted at two 4-legged uncontrolled in­
darkness (Jensen, 1999). Pedestrians involved in past traffic accidents tersections in Warangal and Nagpur cities in India. These two locations
take lower risk and the risk is low for the pedestrian near to the curb were selected because of the rapid growth in population and traffic over
rather than the one close to the central refuse island (Hamed, 2001). The the past two decades. Mixed land use characteristics were observed at
risk associated with the presence of median would be more compared to both study locations. The video-based data collection system was more
that without median (Jimenez-Mejias et al., 2016; Olszewski et al., appropriate to analyse P-V interactions and dilemma zone. Two high-
2015) and the risk behaviour for right-turning vehicles was relatively resolution cameras were fixed at an elevation in such a way that both
high compared to other vehicles (Chen et al., 2017). The risk of injury pedestrian movement and vehicle movement could be captured. 4 h
was significantly lower in case of a pedestrian crossing at zebra crossings (morning and evening time during peak periods) traffic data was
than one crossing at other places (Keall, 1995). Number of lanes, the collected from each study location in February 2019. Video recording
proportion of young male pedestrians and land use patterns had a sig­ mainly focused on the movement of vehicles and pedestrian road
nificant effect on the severity of P-V interactions (Sandt and Zegeer, crossing behaviour. The geometric details of selected study locations
2006). Width of opposing direction, opposing through vehicle volume, measured from the field and the location view are shown in Fig. 1 below.
left turn vehicle volume, and pedestrian volume were the significant Warangal intersection has a two-lane divided road with 3.5 m lane width
factors that affect pedestrian safety (Qi and Yuan, 2012). along the major road and minor roads. Nagpur intersection has a two-
In the absence of real crash data, surrogate safety measures (SSMs) lane divided road along major road and a two-lane undivided road
were used to analyse P-V interactions using videography data. Most along the minor road with 3.5 m lane width. The width of the median at
commonly used SSMs to analyse P-V interactions are Time To Collision both intersections was observed to be 1.0 m.
(TTC), Post Encroachment Time (PET), Time Difference To Collision DataFromSky viewer software was used to extract pedestrian and
(TDTC), and Gap time (GT) etc. Most of the previous studies analysed P- vehicle parameters from the video. It can be used to extract parameters
V interactions using SSMs but very few studies have proposed threshold like speed, acceleration/deceleration and trajectories of both vehicles
values of SSMs for different P-V interaction severity levels. The fre­ and pedestrians, PET, traffic volume counts, vehicle type, and travel
quency of conflicts within the crosswalk (PET < 3 s) was much more distance etc. High accuracy of data was obtained with this software and
than those of outside crosswalk indicating less risk of crossing within the the data extraction process was also quite easy. A screenshot of Data­
crosswalk (Chen et al., 2017). T-intersections were more dangerous than FromSky viewer software is shown in Fig. 2.
Cross intersections due to high conflict rate and there was a possibility of The pedestrian age is classified based on the visual observation
conflict between pedestrian and vehicle when TTC < 1.5 s and PET < during the data extraction process. The pedestrian age is classified as
3.0 s (Lord, 1996). (Almodfer et al., 2016) developed a novel indicator child pedestrians (<=15 years), young pedestrians (16–30 years),
(Lane based Post Encroachment Time (LPET)) to evaluate pedestrian- middle age pedestrians (31–60) years and old pedestrians (>60 years)
vehicle conflict analysis. It was observed that pedestrian-vehicle lane- (Patra et al., 2017). The interactions were classified as normal or severe
based conflicts were not evenly distributed and far lanes contributed to based on the visual observation during the data extraction process and
serious conflicts than nearer lanes. The number of severe conflicts de­ the definitions of severe and normal interactions for visual classification
creases as the waiting time of pedestrian increases and the severity of wareere given below. 2954P-V interactions were extracted from the
conflicts was not affected by the lane position and the stages of the video and the compositions of pedestrians and vehicles are shown in
crossing. Fig. 3 below. 47% of total P-V interactions were observed in the case of
(Scholl et al., 2019) proposed a novel surrogate safety measure i.e. two-wheelers (2W) and the percentage of interactions with
risk index or risk indicator (RI) using post encroachment time and three-wheelers (3W) and cars were 26% and 22% respectively. LCVs and
approaching vehicle speed and the proposed threshold ln(RI) values for HCVs were not considered in the analysis due to a limited number of P-V
high, moderate, and low-risk interactions were 3.97, 2.94, and 2.26 interactions (3% of LCVs and 2% HCVs). 56% of extracted samples were
respectively. (Fu et al., 2016) classified PET < 1.5 s as dangerous con­ related to middle age pedestrians and only 1% of extracted samples were
flicts and found that these conflicts were higher at night time compared related to child pedestrian interactions.
to day. Pedestrian safety is lower at night compared to day. (Mar­ Severe conflict: Both or one of the two road users must stop or
isamynathan and Vedagiri, 2020) developed threshold PET values for change their speeds to avoid the accident. The possibility of an accident
highly dangerous conflicts, dangerous conflicts, and no conflicts for is high in this situation.
Normal conflict: Both pedestrian and vehicle move at their normal

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Fig. 1. 4-legged uncontrolled intersection at (a) Warangal (b) Nagpur.

Fig. 2. Pedestrian and vehicle path tracking in DataFromSky viewer software.

Fig. 3. (a) Vehicle composition (b) Pedestrian composition with respect to age.

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L. Govinda et al. Safety Science 153 (2022) 105806

speeds. The possibility of an accident is very low in this situation.

3.1. Statistical analysis

Point biserial correlation, logistic regression, and Kruskal Wallis H


tests (t-test or ANOVA) were used to know the statistical correlation
between the categorical and continuous variables. In the present study, a
one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) at 95% significance level was
carried out in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 20)
software to mathematically analyse whether there is a significant dif­
ference in pedestrian crossing speeds with respect to age and gender and
vehicular speeds with respect to the type of vehicle. Also, it was to
analyse whether there was a significant difference in risk indicators with
respect to pedestrian age, gender, vehicle type and location of P-V
interactions.
From ANOVA analysis, there was a significant difference between
the crossing speed of pedestrians with respect to pedestrian gender (p =
0.023) and age (p = 0.009). The crossing speeds of male and young
pedestrians were higher than that of female and other age group pe­
destrians respectively. Also, significant differences were observed in Fig. 5. Approaching vehicular speeds with respect to vehicle type.
approaching speeds of different vehicles with respect to vehicle type.
The approaching speeds of two-wheelers were observed to be higher location of P-V interaction respectively.
compared to other vehicle types. Easy manoeuvre at higher speeds due
to size benefit was the reason for higher approaching speeds for two- 4. Classification of P-V interaction severity levels
wheelers. Higher risk-taking behaviour in case of young male pedes­
trians was the reason for higher pedestrian crossing speeds (Govinda The support vector machines (SVM) method was used to develop the
et al., 2020). Various crossing speeds of pedestrians with respect to age threshold RI values for different combinations of pedestrian and vehicle
and gender are represented by box plots in Fig. 4 while Fig. 5 represents parameters based on pedestrian speeds. It is a machine learning algo­
the approaching vehicular speeds with respect to vehicle type. rithm, mostly used for regression and classification purposes. Randomly
ANOVA results indicate that significant differences in risk indicators it selects 70% data as training data for algorithm and the remaining 30%
of pedestrian gender (p = 0.017) and age (p = 0.001). The average risk as testing data for validation purpose. In this method, a plot between
indicator of young pedestrians was observed to be higher than that of pedestrian speeds on y-axis and risk indicator on the x-axis was plotted
middle age, child and old age pedestrians respectively. Significant dif­ on a coordinated system and the threshold value for severe conflicts was
ferences were observed in risk indicators between different vehicle types taken corresponding to different pedestrian speeds.
(p = 0.000) and location of P-V interaction (p = 0.000).The average RI Figs. 8-10 show classified P-V interaction plots using SVM classifi­
was observed to be higher in the case of two-wheelers compared to other cation technique in python interface. A linear classification was done
vehicle types. Also, average RI was observed to be higher when a using the linear kernel function in SVC (support vector classification).
pedestrian crosses the near side of the road and vehicles enter the The severity of a particular P-V interaction was classified based on the
intersection. Fig. 6 and Fig. 7 show the average RI values of P-V in­ pedestrian gender, speed and vehicle type. The value of RI directly
teractions with respect to pedestrian gender, age, vehicle type and

Fig. 4. Pedestrian crossing speeds with respect to (a) pedestrian gender (b) pedestrian age.

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Fig. 6. Average RI of P-V interaction with respect to (a) pedestrian age (b) pedestrian gender.

Fig. 7. Average RI of P-V interaction with respect to (a) vehicle type (b) location of P-V interactions.

Fig. 8. Classification of P-V interactions for (a) male-2W (b) female-2W.

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Fig. 9. Classification of P-V interactions for (a) male- 3W (b) female- 3W.

Fig. 10. Classification of P-V interactions for (a) male-car (b) female- car.

correlated with the severity of P-V interactions as it is inverse of PET.


The severity of P-V interaction is higher at higher values of RI. For a
male pedestrian crossing the road with 0.8 m/s speed and having an
interaction with a two-wheeler there is a possibility of severe interaction 5. Pedestrian-Vehicle (P-V) interaction model
when RI is more than 8.4. The severity of P-V interaction decreases with
increase in pedestrian crossing speed for the same pedestrian gender and SPSS software package was used to develop a multilinear regression
vehicle type. The P-V interaction severity level for male pedestrians (MLR) model between the dependent and independent variables. Among
would be higher compared to female pedestrians for the same vehicle 2954P-V interactions, randomly 75% data was used for model devel­
type and pedestrian crossing speed. The severity of interaction will be opment and the remaining 25% data used to validate the model. The
higher in the case of two-wheelers for the same pedestrian gender and independent variables which correlated with the dependent variable
crossing speed. The threshold values of RI derived from SVM technique (RI) were included in the regression analysis. List of variables used for
for various pedestrian and vehicle characteristics are shown in Table 1. regression analysis is shown in Table 3.
The performance of classified data was described using the confusion The output obtained from the regression analysis after considering 6
matrix and the accuracy of the classified data was estimated using true parameters (Pedestrian age, gender, speed, vehicle type, P-V interaction
positives, true negatives, false positives, and false negatives from the location and crossing side) yielded a model from SPSS 20.0 as depicted
matrix and the mathematical form of accuracy definition is shown in in Table 4. The change in the standard deviation of the output variable
equation (2). Confusion matrix and the accuracy of each classification is due to change in input variable is represented by coefficient B in Table 4
shown in Table 2 below. In all the cases, the test results predict with an and increase or decrease in the output value due to change in the input
accuracy of more than 80 percentage. variable is indicated by the positive or negative sign of coefficient B. The

True Positives + True Negatives


Accuracy = (2)
True Positives + False Positives + True Negatives + False Negatives

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Table 1
Threshold values of risk indicator for severe interactions based on pedestrian and vehicle attributes.
Category of P-V interaction Pedestrian crossing speeds (m/s)

0.6–0.8 0.8–1.0 1.0–1.2 1.2–1.4 1.4–1.6 1.6–1.8

Thresholds for risk indicator (RI) M-2W 8.8–8.4 8.4–8.0 8.0–7.7 7.7–7.4 7.4–7.1 7.1–6.8
M-3W 7.5–7.0 7.0–6.7 6.7–6.4 6.4–6.0 6.0–5.6 5.6–5.1
M-Car 5.8–5.5 5.5–5.2 5.2–4.8 4.8–4.4 4.4–3.9 3.9–3.4
F-2W 7.9–7.4 7.4–7.0 7.0–6.6 6.6–6.2 6.2–5.8 5.8–5.4
F-3W 7.3–7.0 7.0–6.7 6.7–6.5 6.5–6.2 6.2–6.0 6.0–5.7
F-Car 6.0–5.7 5.7–5.4 5.4–5.1 5.1–4.8 4.8–4.5 4.5–4.3

Note: M: male, F: female, 2W: two-wheeler, 3W: three-wheeler.

Table 2
Confusion matrices for testing data based on SVM.

variables with p < 0.05 were included in the model. Pedestrian age (p- development of any model. Validation shows the realistic representation
value 0.007), gender (p-value 0.002), speed (p-value 0.012), vehicle of the actual system. For the present study, 25% of data was used for
type (p-value 0.003), lane position of P-V interaction (p-value 0.001), validation of the proposed MLR model. A graph was plotted between
interaction location (p-value 0.007), and crossing type (p-value 0.001) observed RI values on the x-axis and predicted/expected RI values y-axis
have significant effect with the risk indicator. The mode developed after and shown in Fig. 11. The closeness of the data points to the 45-degree
considering 6 independent variables is shown in equation (3). line indicates the validation of the model. A good level of confidence (R2
= 0.637) was observed between the observed and expected RI values.
RI = 12.99 − 0.722 × Gen − 0.850 × Age − 1.062 × PS − 0.352
× VT − 0.361 × IL − 1.277 × CP (3) 6. Conclusions
All the six independent variables (gender, age, PS, VT, IL, and CP)
Most of the previous studies (Almodfer et al., 2016; Chen et al., 2017;
show a negative correlation with the risk indicator. The severity of P-V
Fu et al., 2016; Lord, 1996; Scholl et al., 2019) analysed P-V interactions
interactions decreases with a decrease in RI value. The value of RI de­
using SSMs but very few studies (Marisamynathan and Vedagiri, 2020;
creases with increase in pedestrian age and gender. Also, it decreases
Shah and Vedagiri, 2017) have proposed threshold values for P-V
when the interaction occurs between male pedestrian and two-wheeler.
interaction severity levels using either pedestrian or vehicle character­
The severity levels of P-V interactions are higher when an interaction
istics. In the present study, the severity level of P-V interactions was
occurs at near side of pedestrians and entry point to vehicles (Near_­
classified based on visual observation during data extraction from video
Entry) compared to the far side of pedestrians and exit to vehicles
and proposed threshold values for severe P-V interactions using both
(Far_Exit). Higher approaching vehicular speeds at the entry point
pedestrian and vehicle characteristics. Videography data was collected
compared to the exit point is the reason for higher levels of severity.
from two 4-legged uncontrolled intersections and the required pedes­
Severity levels are lower when the pedestrians cross the road at cross­
trian and vehicle data was extracted from video using DataFromSky
walk compared to crossing outside crosswalk. Also, it was observed that
software.
the severity levels are higher when the conflicting vehicle is 2W
Python interface with SVM coding was used to estimate the threshold
compared to other vehicle types.
values of RI for different combinations of pedestrian gender, speed and
Calibration and validation are two important aspects for the
vehicle type. The severity level of P-V interaction inversely correlated

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L. Govinda et al. Safety Science 153 (2022) 105806

Table 3 were observed due to the flexibility of pedestrians to change their speeds
Dependent and independent variables for the MLR model. with respect to vehicle speed and position. The influence of speed and
S. Variable Description Category/Units/Code vehicle size on pedestrian perception for risk-taking behaviour is the
No reason for higher severity levels in case of two-wheelers. The perfor­
1 Risk indicator The ratio of approaching Dependent variable mance of classified data was described using confusion matrix and ac­
(RI) vehicular speed to the post curacy was found to be more than 80% in all cases (from Table 2).
encroachment time SPSS 20 software was used to carry out multilinear regression anal­
2 Pedestrian Based on visual appearance Male-1, Female-2 ysis at 95% confidence interval and the variables with t-value more than
gender (Gen) classified as Male and Female
3 Pedestrian age Based on visual appearance Child-1, Young age-2,
t-critical (1.895) were included in the model. From the MLR model, it
(Age) classified as Child (<10 years) Middle age-3, Old was concluded that the risk indicator mostly depends on pedestrian age,
Young (10–25 years), Middle age-4 gender, crossing speed, crossing type, vehicle type, lane position, and
(20–60 years) and Old (>60 interaction location. The proposed model can be used to estimate the
years)
value of RI for different pedestrian and vehicle characteristics. The
4 Pedestrian Crossing speeds of pedestrians Ped speed(m/s)
speed (PS) severity of P-V interaction is classified by comparing the model results
5 Vehicle type Classified based on visual Two-wheeler-1, with the table value (threshold RI values proposed in Table 1). The
(VT) appearance as Two-wheelers Three-wheeler-2, Car- proposed model was validated on a 45-degree line and it showed a good
(2w), Three wheelers (3w), Car, 3, LCV-4, HCV-5 level of confidence (R2 = 0.637) between the observed and the expected
Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV)
or Bus
RI values.
6 Interaction Whether the pedestrian-vehicle Near_Entry-1, The present study was limited to estimating the threshold RI values
location (IL) interaction occurs at entry or exit Near_Exit-2, for two-wheelers, three-wheelers and cars due to fewer number of LCVs
of the intersection Far_Entry-3, Far_Exit- and HCVs. The inclusion of threshold values for these two vehicle types
4
would give better information towards P-V interaction analysis. The
7 Crossing Whether the pedestrian-vehicle Within-1, Away-2
position(CP) interaction occurs within the present study classified the threshold values based on pedestrian gender,
crosswalk or away from the speed and vehicle type. In future, it can be extended to define the
crosswalk threshold values of SSMs based on the pedestrian age as well.

CRediT authorship contribution statement


Table 4
The output from SPSS 20.0 showing MLR model results. Lalam Govinda: Writing – original draft, Validation, Methodology,
Coefficientsa
Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation, Software. M.R. Sai Kiran
Raju: . K.V.R. Ravi Shankar: .
Model B Std. Error t Sig.

1 (Constant) 12.991 1.243 10.449 0.000 Declaration of Competing Interest


Ped_Gender -0.722 0.302 − 2.389 0.017
Ped_Age -0.850 0.212 − 3.999 0.000
Ped_Speed − 1.062 0.461 − 2.303 0.021
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
Veh_Type -0.352 0.144 − 2.449 0.014 interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
Interaction_Location -0.361 0.140 − 2.589 0.010 the work reported in this paper.
Crossing_Position − 1.277 0.330 − 3.865 0.000
a
Dependent Variable: Risk_Indicator. Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the research assistance


provided by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of
India. The authors would like to thank the DataFromSky team for timely
help in extracting video data and related academic agreement with the
institute.

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