Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Safety Research

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jsr

A novel traffic conflict risk measure considering the effect of vehicle

weight
Ying Wang a, Huizhao Tu a,⇑, N.N. Sze b, Hao Li a, Xin Ruan c
a
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai 201804, China
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
c
Department of Bridge Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai 200092, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Introduction: Vehicle weight is deterministic to the impact force in collision, and thus the injury risk of
Received 7 March 2021 vehicle occupants. In China, involvement of heavy vehicles in overall and fatal crashes are prevalent, even
Received in revised form 10 May 2021 though heavy vehicles only constitute a small proportion of overall registered motor vehicles. However,
Accepted 16 September 2021
vehicle weight is rarely considered in the existing traffic conflict risk prediction and assessment models
Available online 28 September 2021
because of the unavailability of required data. Method: Novel risk indicators for the diagnosis of traffic
conflict risk map, considering the effect of vehicle weight, are proposed, with the advantage of compre-
Keywords:
hensive traffic flow characteristics and vehicle weight data using Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) technique.
Weigh-in-motion (WIM) technique
Risk indicator
Weight-incorporated risk level (WRL) and weight integrated risk level (WIRL) are established to quantify
Time-to-collision (TTC) the traffic conflict risk, at an instant and over a specified time period, respectively, by extending the con-
Potential collision energy (PCE) ventional traffic conflict risk measures including time-to-collision (TTC) and modified potential collision
Risk map energy (PCE). Then, a microscopic traffic simulation model is adopted to estimate the traffic conflict risk
map along a highway segment that has partial lane closure. The traffic conflict risk performances,
between the risk indicators with and without considering the vehicle weight, are compared. Results:
The traffic conflict risks estimated using conventional risk indicators without considering the vehicle
weight are generally lower than that based on WRL and WIRL. The difference is more profound when
the proportion of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream increases. Conclusions: The finding is indicative to
remedial engineering measures including variable message sign, speed limit, and ramp metering that
can mitigate the real-time crash risks on highways, especially in adverse environmental and weather con-
ditions, with due consideration of vehicle composition and crash worthiness of vehicles.
Ó 2021 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Despite crashes being the most relevant measure for traffic con-
flict, it takes a considerable period of time to accumulate enough
cases for statistical inference considering the rare and random nat-
ure of a crash. To assess the effectiveness of engineering and traffic
control measures in enhancing the safety performance, it is neces-
sary to establish the appropriate traffic safety risk indicators that
can infer the potential conflict risk, particularly considering the
real-time traffic characteristics (e.g., traffic density, vehicle mix,
and vehicular speed; Li et al., 2017; Tarko, 2020).
Vehicle weight is deterministic to the energy dissipation in
vehicle collision, and therefore the crash outcome in terms of vehi-
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: 1710520@tongji.edu.cn (Y. Wang), huizhaotu@tongji.edu.cn
(H. Tu), tony.nn.sze@polyu.edu.hk (N.N. Sze), haolitj@tongji.edu.cn (H. Li), ruan-
xin@tongji.edu.cn (X. Ruan).
cle and property damages, and injury severity of vehicle occupants
(Isaksson-Hellman & Werneke, 2017; José, Mercedes, & Xavier,
2021). Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate vehicle weight when
estimating the conflict risk. Conventional risk indicators (e.g.,
time-to-collision (TTC)), however, do not consider vehicle weight
limited to the availability of required data (Sayed, Zaki, & Autey,
2013; Schwarz, 2014). Deficiencies of risk indicators that do not
consider vehicle weight are considerable when the proportion of
heavy vehicles in the traffic stream increases (Blower, Green, &
Matteson, 2010; Mooren, Raphael, Ann, Jake & Rena, 2014). Propor-
tion of heavy vehicle in the traffic stream is positively associated
with overall crash frequency and crash severity. It could be attrib-
uted to characteristics including road environment, vehicle dimen-
sions, and maneuver (Iranitalab, Khattak, & Bahouth, 2020; Chen,
Sze, Chen, Labi, & Zeng, 2021). For example, crash involvement of
heavy vehicles is 1.2 to 1.5 times higher than that of light vehicles
(Moonesinghe et al., 2003). Despite that heavy vehicles only

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2021.09.008
0022-4375/Ó 2021 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al.
constitute a small proportion of overall licensed vehicles, they are
overrepresented in crashes. In Australia, Europe, and the United
States, 2.4% to 4.5% of overall registered motor vehicles are heavy
trucks. However, they are involved in 4.0% to 7.4% of overall
crashes and 9.4% to 16.0% of fatal crashes (Federal Motor Carrier
Safety Administration, 2018; Schindler, Jnsch, Johannsen, &
Bálint, 2021; Department of Infrastructure and Regional
Development of Australia, 2016). In China, overloading of heavy
vehicles is a leading crash explanatory factors to heavy vehicle-
related crashes (World Bank Working Paper, 2008).
Taking advantage of the development and applications of differ-
ent information technologies (e.g., multiple data collection using
various traffic sensors, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-
infrastructure (V2I) communications, and variable speed limits
and message signs) in traffic control and management, it is possi-
ble to improve the operational efficiency and safety performance of
the roadway network in a cost-effective manner (Mai, Turochy, &
David, 2013; Xia, Zhang, & Liu, 2016; Ward, Agamennoni,
Worrall, Bender, & Nebot, 2015; Katrakazas, Theofilatos, Islam,
Papadimitriou, & Antoniou, 2021). For example, weigh-in-motion
(WIM), a non-disruptive vehicle sensing technique that can detect
and record the characteristics of a moving vehicle, has emerged.
WIM can measure the attributes (including vehicular speed, gross
vehicle weight, and number of axles of passing vehicles) using a
dynamic tire pressure sensor installed underneath the pavement
surface (Nowak & Przemyslaw, 2013; Enright, Leahy, Obrien, &
Keenahan, 2012). State-of-the-practice WIM system can achieve
a low measurement error of ±3% only (Karim, Nik, Ahmad, &
Hideo, 2014; Saifizul, Yamanaka, & Karim 2011). This should shed
light on the real-time conflict risk prediction and evaluation using
comprehensive and precise traffic characteristics data (Lin, Wang,
& Adel, 2015; Vlahogianni, Park, & van Lint, 2015).
In this study, based on comprehensive traffic flow and charac-
teristics data using the WIM technique, a set of novel risk indica-
tors (in which the vehicle weight is considered) is proposed for
the prediction of the traffic conflict risk map. For example, two
indicators, (a) weight-incorporated risk level (WRL) and (b) weight
integrated risk level (WIRL), are proposed. WRL and WIRL are cap-
able of representing the disaggregated conflict risk of an instant
and aggregated conflict risk over a specified period and a sketch
of roadway segment. In addition, a microscopic traffic simulation
model is applied to simulate the speed and trajectory of every vehi-
cle passing through the WIM sensors in a specific period. Therefore,
the conflict risk map over a sketch of highway segment can be
modeled (Rayaprolu, Sherif, Yan, & Brian, 2013; Mao, Liu, Luo, &
Yu, 2013). Results of conflict risk prediction between the models
with and without considering the vehicle weight, in different sce-
narios with respect to traffic volume and traffic composition (i.e.,
proportion of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream), are compared.
Table 1
WIM applications in different jurisdictions.
Jurisdiction Before 1980 1980–1999
Australia
Low Speed Electronic Mass Unit introduced
(1976)

High Speed Electronic Mass Unit introduced
(1978)
China
European
Feasibility studies in France and United
Union Kingdom (1970 s)
United
WIM first applied (1950 s)
States
B-WIM introduced (1970 s)
Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13
The remaining parts of this paper are structured as follows. Sec-
tion 2 reviews the existing literature on WIM technique and safety
risk analysis. Section 3 describes the details of data collection using
WIM technology and formulations of proposed risk indicators and
conflict risk prediction. Data and estimation results of the distribu-
tions of traffic conflict risk are given in Section 4 and Section 5,
respectively. Finally, Section 6 summarizes the findings of this
study and proposes the future research direction.
2. Literature review
2.1. WIM technique
WIM technology is widely applied for the operation and main-
tenance of transport infrastructures including motorways, bridges,
and tunnels. WIM is capable of measuring the vehicular speed and
vehicle weight in a non-disruptive way using a dynamic tire pres-
sure sensor installed underneath the pavement surface (Nowak &
Przemyslaw, 2013; Enright, Leahy, Obrien, & Keenahan, 2012).
WIM was first introduced in 1950s. It has been widely imple-
mented around the world since 1970s. Table 1 summarizes the
development and applications of WIM in different jurisdictions.
Measurement accuracy of WIM is associated with the factors
including roughness of pavement surface, road environment, vehi-
cle suspension, and vehicular speed. In addition, accuracy may also
depend on installation, calibration, operation, and maintenance of
WIM system (Al-Qadi, Wang, Ouyang, Grimmelsman, & Purdy,
2016; Mai et al., 2013; Hernandez, Tok, & Ritchie, 2016). One of
the major purposes of WIM is to deter against the overloading of
goods vehicles, especially for vulnerable road infrastructures
including bridges and tunnels. To enhance the measurement accu-
racy of the weight of goods vehicles, an adaptive algorithm is pro-
posed to allow for the variation of the threshold value of weight
measurement (Han Ko, Gu, & Jeong, 2012; Yu, Cai, & Deng, 2016;
Rys, Judycki, & Jaskula, 2016).
2.2. Traffic conflict risk assessment
Traditionally, historical police crash data have been used to
examine the effects of road environmental and traffic factors on
highway safety (Chen et al., 2021). However, crashes are rare and
random. It is necessary to take considerable time to accumulate
adequate crash data for analysis. With the development of emerg-
ing traffic sensor and trajectory recognition techniques, traffic
safety analysis based on traffic conflict and other safety surrogate
measures is prevalent.
In conventional traffic conflict risk assessment models, surro-
gate measures and indicators (including TTC, deceleration rate to
avoid crash (DRAC), and post-encroachment time (PET)) are con-
2000 and after

CULWAY introduced in Western Australia (1985)

Multi-lane CULWAY introduced (early 1990 s)

WIM technology introduced in Shanxi Province
Thousands of WIM systems imple-
(1980 s) mented (since 2001)

First trial test conducted (1993–1995)

Trial tests in 19 countries (1998)

WIM of Axles and Vehicles for Europe (WAVE) pro-
ject conducted (1996–1999)

WIM recognized as focus technology
by AASHTO (2004)

Field operation guideline published
by FHWA (2012)
2
Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al.
sidered. Take TTC, one of the most commonly applied indicators for
the prediction and assessment of traffic conflict risk, as an exam-
ple. For the risk of rear-end collision, TTC refers to the time in
which a following vehicle would collide with a leading vehicle in
terms of trajectories and speeds, if there was no change in the
maneuvers of any of the two vehicles (Sayed, Zaki, & Autey,
2013; Li, Tu, Fan, Dong, & Wang, 2018; Xing et al., 2019a; Li Wu,
Lee, Yang, & Shi, 2020). Formulation of TTC is given as follows.
xi1 ðt Þ  xi ðt Þ  li
TTC i ¼ 8v i ðt Þ > v i1 ðtÞ ð1Þ
v i ðtÞ  v i1 ðtÞ
where v denotes the speed, x refers to the displacement, and l rep-
resents the vehicle length, respectively.
TTC threshold (TTC*) defines the stratification point between
the safe and unsafe states. For example, when the value of TTC is
lower than that of TTC*, a potential traffic crash would occur.
Increases in (a) the frequency of TTC being lower than TTC* (likeli-
hood) and (b) deviation of TTC from TTC* (consequence) both
imply a higher conflict risk. In preceding studies, values of TTC*
may range from one to five seconds (Botzer, Musicant, & Perry,
2017; Papazikou, Mohammed, Pete, & David, 2019; Kusano, Chen,
Jade, & Hampton, 2015; Li, Rakotonirainy & Yan, 2019; Tu et al.,
2019). In particular, TTC* of 3 seconds is commonly adopted (Qu,
Yang, Liu, Jin, & Weng, 2014). In this study, two values of TTC*
(i.e., two seconds and four seconds) are considered.
With the use of emerging vehicle sensing technologies, it is pos-
sible to estimate the TTC of every pair of two following vehicles,
and therefore, determine the prevalence of potential traffic conflict
(Ward et al., 2015). To estimate the degree of seriousness of poten-
tial traffic conflict, two modified TTC measures, (a) time exposed
TTC (TET) and (b) time integrated TTC (TIT), are proposed
(Rahman & Mohamed, 2018; Li et al., 2017; Li, Wang, Wang, Liu,
& Xiang, 2016). However, the aforementioned risk indicators
(e.g., TET and TIT) do not consider vehicle mass in the estimation
(Ni, 2013). Vehicle mass is deterministic to the energy dissipation
in vehicle collision, and therefore the potential collision outcomes
(i.e., damages and fatality and severe injury of vehicle occupants;
Pahukula, Hernandez, & Unnikrishnan, 2015; Saifizul, Yamanaka,
& Karim, 2011; Björnstig, Björnstig, & Eriksson, 2008). To this
end, weight-based traffic safety risk assessment is proposed (Jo,
Oh, & Kim, 2019). For instance, potential collision energy (PCE),
which can account for the effect of momentum when estimating
the likelihood and severity of potential traffic conflicts, is adopted
(Dijkstra & Drolenga, 2008). From the perspective of traffic man-
agement and control application, it is crucial to visualize the con-
flict risk map along a highway sketch over a specific period. To
determine the likelihood and severity of potential rear-end con-
flicts, PCE can be estimated using the formulation as follows
(Dijkstra & Drolenga, 2008):
1

PCEi ðtÞ ¼ mi  v i 2 ðt Þ  mi1  v 2i1 ðt Þ ð2Þ
2 and location s (when the value of TTC is lower than TTC*) and
where mi and vi denote the mass and speed of a following vehicle,
and mi1 and vi-1 are that of a leading vehicle respectively, in a
car following process.
Nevertheless, such traffic safety risk indicators and assessment
models are indicative to the design and development of advanced
vehicle control technologies, including advanced driver assistance
system (ADAS) and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs),
that can mitigate the collision risk real-time (Katrakazas, Quddus,
& Chen, 2018; Formosa, Quddus, Ison, Abdel-Aty, & Yuan, 2020;
Formosa et al., 2021).
3
Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13
3. Methods
3.1. Weight-based traffic conflict risk indicators
Despite that PCE is a commonly adopted weight-related traffic
conflict risk metrics, there are some deficiencies. In Eq. (2), if
mi  v i 2 ðt Þ < mi1  v 2i1 ðt Þ, then PCE will be negative. For example,
PCE will become negative when the mass of a following vehicle
is much less than that of a leading vehicle. This is not practice since
the energy dissipation in a collision is always positive. Addition-
ally, characteristics of both leading and following vehicles in the
two-vehicle conflict scenarios should be considered. To get rid of
this, the modified PCE is estimated using the formulation given
as follows.
(
1
2
ai  ai1  mi  v i 2 ðtÞwheremi v i 2 ðtÞ  mi1 v 2i1 ðtÞ  0
PCEi ðt Þ ¼ ai ai1 ½mi v i 2 ðtÞmi1 v 2i1 ðtÞ
2
wheremi v i 2 ðtÞ  mi1 v 2i1 ðtÞ > 0
ð3Þ
where ai and ai-1 denote the attribute function of leading and fol-
lowing vehicles, respectively. For instance, vehicle dimensions,
maneuverability, and acceleration and deceleration performances
are considered. As an illustrative case, ai and ai-1 are set at 1
arbitrarily.
In the conventional studies, TTC is commonly adopted to esti-
mate the risk of potential traffic conflict. However, TTC considers
the length, relative displacement, and relative speed only of two
following vehicles. To this end, two weight-based risk indicators,
WRL and WIRL, are proposed. Fig. 1 depicts the concepts of WRL
and WIRL.
As shown in Fig. 1, on the TTC-time plane, two TTC-based risk
indicators, TET and TIT, are established. For instance, TET refers
to the time duration at which the value of TTC is lower than that
of TTC*, and TIT denotes the area bounded by the TTC curve and
TTC* (i.e., integral of (TTC* - TTC) with respect to t, given that the
value of TTC is lower than that of TTC*). Risk of potential traffic
conflict increases when the values of TET and/or TIT increase. How-
ever, TIT takes into account the deviation of TTC from TTC*, while
TET does not (Minderhoud & Bovy, 2001). TIT can be estimated
using the formulation given as follows:
RLsi ðt Þ ¼ TTC   TTC i ðtÞwhereTTC i ðtÞTTC  <0
P ð4Þ
TIT s ðtÞ ¼ Ni¼1 RLsi ðt Þ
where RLsi ðt Þ denotes the severity of potential risk of vehicle i at
time t and location s, and TIT s ðt Þ denotes the overall TIT of all vehi-
cles (N) at time t and location s. As shown in Fig. 1(a), on the TTC-
PCE plane, WRL can be estimated by multiplying RL and PCE, using
the formulation given as follows.
WRLsi ðt Þ ¼ RLsi ðtÞ  PCEsi ðt Þ
P P
 ð5Þ
WRLs ðt Þ ¼ Ni¼1 WRLsi ðt Þ ¼ Ni¼1 RLsi ðt Þ  PCEsi ðt Þ
where WRLsi ðtÞ denotes weight-based risk level of vehicle i at time t
WRLs ðt Þ denotes the overall weight-based risk level of all vehicles
(N) at time t and location s.
As shown in Fig. 1(b), at the three-dimensional space, WIRL can
be estimated by multiplying the integral of RL (with respect to t)
and PCE, using the formulation given as follows.
RT
WIRLsi ¼0
RLsi  PCEsi  sSC
P P RT ð6Þ
WIRLs ¼ Ni¼1 WIRLsi ¼ Ni¼1 0 RLsi  PCEsi  sSC
where sSC = 1 when TTC-TTC* < 0 and sSC = 0 when TTC-TTC* > 0
respectively.
Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Fig. 1. Conceptual model of WRL and WIRL.

Hence, TIT*, WRL* and WIRL* of the subject vehicle i can be given where amax
i denotes the anticipated maximum acceleration, b is the

by the following Eq. (7), Eq. (8) and Eq. (9), scale factor, li ðt Þ denotes the anticipated distance headway between
 RT the following and leading vehicles, acom denotes the anticipated
RLsi ¼ ½TTC   TTC i ðt Þ  sSC whereTTC i ðtÞTTC  <0 i
0
 P 
ð7Þ deceleration, l0 is the minimum safe parking distance, l1 is the min-
TIT s ¼ Ni¼1 RLsi imum safe (speed-related) distance, and T i1 denotes the safe time
headway, respectively.
 
WRLsi ¼ RLsi  PCEsi ðtÞ Nevertheless, transitions of kinematic states depend on the fac-
 P  ð8Þ
WRLs ¼ Ni¼1 WRLsi tors including vehicle type, time and distance headway, and rela-
tive speed between leading and following vehicles. The iterative
 RT  process of the transitions of kinematic states is governed by the
WIRLsi ¼ RLsi  PCEsi  sSC
 P
0

ð9Þ formulation given as follows:
WIRLs ¼ Ni¼1 WIRLs
v i ðt þ DtÞ ¼ v i ðtÞ þ Dv i ðtÞ
ð11Þ
xi ð t þ D t Þ xð t Þ þ v i ð t Þ Dt
3.2. Microscopic traffic simulation and conflict risk map
where Dt refers to the transition time between states.
At a specific location where the comprehensive traffic count
(and characteristics) data are available (e.g., toll booths and
entry/exit of highway), the weight-based risk indicators proposed 4. Data
in preceding Section 2.3–2.4 can be used to evaluate the conflict
risk, both at an instant and over a specific time. For the purpose This study proposes the novel risk indicators, taking the vehicle
of traffic management and control, it is crucial to model the prop- weight into account, based on comprehensive WIM data collected
agation (by time and space) of potential traffic conflict risk over a at a specific location.
sketch of highway segment, regardless of the availability of actual
traffic count data. To this end, a microscopic traffic simulation 4.1. Empirical WIM data
model is adopted to determine the potential traffic conflict risk
map over a sketch of highway segment based on precise WIM data Comprehensive traffic characteristics data (i.e., traffic volume,
at a specific location. Therefore, the conflict risk map can be vehicle type, vehicle length, vehicular speed, and vehicle weight)
visualized. are collected from Siqiao Highway in Nanjing City of China for
In the proposed microscopic traffic simulation model, the out- 21 days in January 2013. Siqiao Highway is a double carriageway
flow boundary condition is assumed to be free-flow (i.e., the first six-lane motorway. It was opened in 2012. Siqiao Highway is a part
vehicle can maneuver freely along the whole sketch of simulated of the strategic national highway network. The speed limit is
road segment). On the other hand, empirical traffic characteristics 100 km/h.
(e.g., hourly average traffic flow and traffic composition, number of Table 2 summarizes the WIM data used in this study. Informa-
axles, vehicle weight, vehicular speed, and lane position) are uti- tion on the vehicle type, weight, and speed of 78,701 vehicles
lized as inputs to develop the model. For the details of proposed (traveling in one direction) were recorded. As shown in Table 2, a
microscopic traffic simulation, with respect to the transitions of sample of 73,714 vehicles was adopted because of the measure-
kinematic states and dynamic traffic flow, readers may refer to ment error and missing data. In general, the traffic volume is not
the intelligent driver model (IDM) (Treiber, Hennecke, & Helbing, high (average daily traffic of 3,510 vehicles per day per direction).
2000). For instance, acceleration of vehicle i at time t can be esti- Two-axle vehicles (e.g., private cars, buses, and small-to-medium
mated by the formulation given as follows: goods vehicles) constitute the majority of the sample (i.e., 77.8%).
 h ib h i2  Average weight of the two-axle vehicles is 4.4 tons. In contrast,
li ðt Þ
ai ðtÞ ¼ amax
i 1  vvi ððttÞÞ  x ðtÞx ð t Þl extremely heavy goods vehicles constitute a small proportion only
i1 i i
ð10Þ
i
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi (i.e., 4.2% for five-axle and 9.3% for six-axle vehicles, respectively).
v i ðt Þ v i ðtÞ½p v iffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ðt Þv i1 ðt Þ
li ðt Þ ¼ l0 þ l1 v  ðtÞ þ T i1 v i ðtÞ þ 2 amax acom

i
Average weight of the five-axle vehicles is 28.5 tons and that of six-
i i
axle vehicles is 39.4 tons, respectively. Last but not least, average
4
Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Table 2
Summary of WIM data.

Vehicle Sample Average Standard deviation of Average vehicle Standard deviation of vehicle Average speed Standard deviation of
type size weight (ton) weight (ton) length (m) length (m) (km/h) speed (km/h)
2-axle 57,325 4.4 5.5 3.5 1.2 83.5 16.0
3-axle 3,764 17.3 5.5 7.0 1.6 62.2 20.0
4-axle 2,684 23.7 8.3 9.8 3.7 47.2 13.5
5-axle 3,111 28.5 10.1 12.7 2.5 46.5 14.0
6-axle 6,830 39.4 13.8 13.7 1.7 44.2 14.5
Overall 73,714 10.0 13.2 5.2 3.8 75.9 21.6

speeds of two-axle (83.5 km/h) and three-axle (62.2 km/h) vehicles prevalent when the proportion of heavy vehicles in the traffic
are higher than that of other vehicle types. stream increases.

4.2. Traffic conflict risk based on empirical data
Table 3 summarizes the estimation results of aggregated traffic
conflict risk, based on empirical WIM data at a specific location
(where WIM sensors are installed) in the study period. For exam-
ple, number of conflicts and average WRL are estimated. In addi-
tion, both overall and disaggregated estimates by vehicle type
are presented.
As shown in Table 3, the overall sample size is 73,714. There are
3,995 conflicts when TTC* is set at two seconds and 9,465 conflicts
when TTC* is set at four seconds, respectively. As expected, two-
axle vehicles (77.8% of all vehicles) constitute the majority of traffic
conflicts (i.e., 90.1% when TTC* is set at two second and 88.7%
when TTC* is set at four seconds, respectively). In contrast, traffic
conflicts of vehicles of three-axle or more are less prevalent. In
contrast, it is not the case when vehicle weight is considered in
traffic conflict risk estimation. WRLs of three-axle and six-axle
vehicles are the highest, regardless of TTC*. Furthermore, WRLs
of two-axle vehicles is lower than that of overall.
Fig. 2 illustrates the distributions of hourly average traffic vol-
ume and average speed by vehicle type. As shown in Fig. 2(a),
hourly average traffic volumes of two-axle and three-axle vehicles
are all higher than that of four-axle or more vehicles, regardless of
time of day. Also, hourly average speed of two-axle and three-axle
vehicles are higher than that of four-axle or more vehicles. Number
of conflicts (based on TTC) and WRL by vehicle type and time of
day at a specific location where WIM system is installed are
estimated.
Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 illustrate the results of overall number of con-
flicts and WRL (in the study period) when TTC* is set at 2 seconds
and 4 seconds, respectively. As shown in Fig. 3, when TTC* is set at
two seconds, numbers of TTC-based conflicts of two-axle and
three-axle vehicles are higher than that of four-axle or more vehi-
cles. However, there is no observable difference in WRL between
different vehicle types. As also shown in Fig. 4, similar phe-
nomenon can be observed when TTC* is set at four seconds. This
justifies that WRL is more adhered to the empirical evidence that
can infer the traffic conflict risk, as compared to conventional
TTC-based indicators. It is expected that such a finding is more
5. Results
In the preceding section, temporal distributions of traffic con-
flict risk (with and without considering the vehicle weight) at a
specific location that have WIM sensors are estimated. To model
the traffic conflict risk map over a highway segment, a microscopic
traffic simulation model, based on cellular automaton (CA)
approach, is adopted (Ruan, Zhou, Tu, Jin, & Shi, 2017). In particu-
lar, a bottleneck set out by partial lane closure (which is prevalent
because of recurrent [i.e., highway maintenance work] and non-
recurrent [i.e., traffic incident] events) is simulated.
5.1. Simulation design
Fig. 5 illustrates the simulated road segment, based on IDM
approach (Fujitac et al., 2013; Kesting and Martin, 2008). For
instance, acceleration rates of two-axle and three-axle or more
vehicles are set at 4.0 m/s2 and 3.5 m/s2, respectively. In addition,
deceleration rates of two-axle and three-axle or more vehicles
are set at 2.0 m/s2 and 1.5 m/s2, respectively. Furthermore, reaction
times of two-axle and three-axle or more vehicles are set at 1.2
seconds and 1.8 seconds, respectively.
As shown in Fig. 5, a three-lane carriageway of 4,000-meter long
is simulated. In addition, an arbitrary bottleneck is established by
imposing a lane closure at the right hand lane (right hand driving
rule is adopted in China Mainland) at the mileage of 2,500 m. The
WIM system is installed at the beginning of the simulated segment.
Moreover, the first 500-meters and last 500-metre are not consid-
ered in the simulation model to eliminate the boundary effect.
5.2. Simulation input
WIM data collected on one particular day (i.e., 20 January 2013)
are used as the inputs for the simulation model. As the actual traf-
fic volume of Siqiao Highway was low in general, as shown in
Table 4, three different scenarios, with varying traffic volumes of
different vehicle types, are simulated. Fig. 6 and Fig. 7 illustrate
the temporal distributions of traffic volume and traffic density by
vehicle type in different scenarios. For instance, the stratification

Table 3
Estimation results overall traffic conflict risk.

Vehicle Type Sample size (%) TTC* of 2 seconds TTC* of 4 seconds

Number of conflicts (%) Average WRL (MJsec) Number of conflicts (%) Average WRL (MJsec)
2-axle 57,325 77.8 3,599 90.1 536.9 8,395 88.7 1,126.0
3-axle 3,764 5.1 114 2.9 1,782.6 326 3.4 3,584.4
4-axle 2,684 3.6 67 1.7 1,240.3 158 1.7 2,529.5
5-axle 3,111 4.2 66 1.7 1,229.4 198 2.1 2,678.5
6-axle 6,830 9.3 149 3.7 1,901.3 388 4.1 3,500.3
Overall 73,714 100.0 3,995 100.0 646.6 9,465 100.0 1,363.9

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Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Fig. 2. Traffic characteristics by time of the day and vehicle type.

Fig. 3. Distribution of traffic conflict risk by vehicle type and time of the day (TTC* of 2 seconds).

Fig. 4. Distribution of traffic conflict risk by vehicle type and time of the day (TTC* of 4 seconds).

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Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Fig. 5. Illustration of the road segment for the proposed traffic simulation.

Table 4 conflicts can be induced. Therefore, simulation of traffic conflict

Particulars of the microscopic traffic simulation model. risk map can be facilitated.
Scenario Volume of two-axle & three-axle Volume of four-axle or more
vehicles vehicles
5.3. Conflict risk map
1 Increase by 100% Increase by 100%
2 Increase by 100% Increase by 300%
3 Increase by 100% Increase by 500% Conflict risk map, based on WRL and WIRL, along the simulated
highway segment in the study period (i.e., 23 January 2013) can be
determined using the microscopic traffic simulation model. A bot-
point of Level of Service (LOS) A and LOS B is set at 18 vehicle per tleneck using the partial lane closure is set out to induce the poten-
kilometer per lane, and that of LOS B and LOS C is set at 29 vehicle tial traffic conflict. In addition, different scenarios of traffic flow
per kilometer per lane. To this end, it is expected that more traffic and traffic composition, in term of proportion of heavy vehicles
in the traffic stream, are simulated. Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 illustrate the

Fig. 6. Distributions of input traffic volume by vehicle type and time of the day.

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Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al.
Fig. 7. Distributions of traffic density by time of the day.
conflict risk map, in term of conventional TTC and proposed
weight-based indicators, with respect to different risk-critical
thresholds (e.g., TTC* of two seconds and four seconds), respec-
tively. In particular, the space interval is set at 200 meters. And
time interval is set at 15 minutes. As shown in Fig. 8, when TTC*
is set at two seconds, the conflict risk map between the simulation
models with (Fig. 8(b), 8(d), and 8(f)) and without (Fig. 8(a), 8(c),
and 8(e)) considering vehicle weight are similar, regardless of the
traffic flow level and traffic composition. As shown in Fig. 8(a)–
(f), during the period from 15.00 to 15.59, the potential traffic con-
flict risk downstream of the bottleneck (e.g., mileage of 2,500
meters) are generally higher. When vehicle weight is considered
(as shown in Fig. 8(b), 8(d), and 8(f)), the risks are more profound,
especially when the proportions of heavy vehicles increase (i.e.,
Scenario 2 and Scenario 3). Similar phenomenon can be observed
when the TTC* is set at four second (as shown in Fig. 9(a)-(f)). Such
findings justify the suitability of the use of proposed weight-based
risk indicators.
Table 5 summarizes the estimates of conflict risk in term of
number of conflicts and WIRL for: (a) overall of entire highway seg-
ment, (b) upstream of the bottleneck, and (c) downstream of the
bottleneck, in different scenarios of traffic flow condition and of
different thresholds.
As shown in Table 5(a), for the entire simulated highway seg-
ment, when TTC* is set at two seconds, contributions of heavy
vehicles (i.e., three-axle or more vehicle) to number of conflicts
are 11.6% in Scenario 1, 13.8% in Scenario 2, and 15.5% in Scenario
3, respectively. On the other hand, contributions of heavy vehicles
to WIRL are 12.9% in Scenario 1, 15.0% in Scenario 2, and 17.5% in
Scenario 3 respectively. As expected, contributions of heavy vehi-
cles to WIRL are higher than that to number of conflicts in general.
Similar phenomenon can be observed when TTC* is set at four
seconds.
As above mentioned, potential traffic conflict risks are prevalent
downstream of the bottleneck during the period from 15.00 to
15.59. As shown in Table 5(b), at the highway segment upstream
of the bottleneck during the period from 15.00 to 15.59, again, con-
tributions of heavy vehicles to WIRL (13.3% in Scenario 1, 16.5% in
Scenario 2, and 16.0% in Scenario 3, respectively) are higher than
that to number of conflicts (11.3% in Scenario 1, 15.1% in Scenario
2, and 13.6% in Scenario 3, respectively), regardless of the traffic
flow conditions, when TTC* is set at two seconds. Such differences
are more profound when TTC* is set at four seconds (7.5% vs 4.2% in
Scenario 1, 10.0% vs 6.4% in Scenario 2, and 10.2% vs 6.8% in Sce-
nario 3, respectively), as also shown in Table 5(b). For the simu-
lated highway segment downstream of the bottleneck, as shown
8
Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13
in Table 5(c), in Scenario 1, contributions of heavy vehicles to num-
ber of conflict (10.7% when TTC* is set at two seconds, and 5.2%
when TTC* is set at four seconds) are similar to that of WIRL
(9.7% when TTC* is set at two seconds, and 6.5% when TTC* is set
at four seconds). However, when proportions of heavy vehicles
increase, contributions of heavy vehicles to WIRL are remarkably
higher than that to number of conflicts. For example, as also shown
in Table 5(c), in Scenario 2, contributions of heavy vehicles to WIRL
(14.1% when TTC* is two seconds and 10.2% when TTC* is four sec-
onds) are higher than that to number of conflicts (13.4% when TTC*
is two seconds and 7.9% when TTC* is four seconds). Furthermore,
in Scenario 3, contributions of heavy vehicles to WIRL (16.9% when
TTC* is two seconds and 12.2% when TTC* is four seconds) are
higher than that to number of conflicts (14.7% when TTC* is two
seconds and 7.9% when TTC* is four seconds).
5.4. Potential applications
Practical contribution of the proposed weight-based safety risk
indicators is twofold: (1) macroscopic scale traffic management
and control, and (2) microscopic scale vehicular control. For the
former, adaptive traffic control measures that consider real-time
traffic flow and vehicle composition can effectively mitigate the
risk of more severe crashes, especially involving heavy vehicles.
As indicated in the microscopic traffic simulation model, risk of
more severe conflict elevates more rapidly when the proportion
of heavy vehicles increases, particularly at the locations that are
upstream of a bottleneck. It is indicative to the design and opera-
tion of adaptive traffic surveillance and control system including
variable message sign, variable speed limit, and ramp metering,
which are responsive to the real-time traffic flow at the highway
portals. Furthermore, automated enforcement system, based on
image recognition and vehicle sensing techniques, targeted to
overloading, speeding, and reckless lane changing of heavy vehi-
cles, can be implemented.
For the latter, driver assistance systems that can mitigate the
real-time collision risk by modifying the vehicular speed, accelera-
tion and deceleration rates, car-following distance, and lane chang-
ing maneuvers can be introduced. In particular, vehicle weight and
crashworthiness should be considered in the algorithm architec-
ture of ADAS and CAVs. For example, the safe car following dis-
tance should be set in accordance with the prevailing speed
limit, and the weights of both subject and following vehicles.
To sum up, estimation results of the risk of potential traffic con-
flict when vehicle weight is considered are adhered to that of
empirical evidence, both based on actual data at a specific location
(with WIM sensors installed) and the space–time risk map based
on microscopic traffic simulation model, as compared to that using
a conventional risk indicator (i.e., TTC). Generally, risk of potential
traffic conflict could have been underestimated, especially when
the proportion of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream increase
and downstream of a bottleneck.
6. Conclusion
TTC has been well recognized as an efficient risk indicator. It is
useful for real-time conflict risk prediction and assessment. How-
ever, vehicle weight, which is deterministic to energy dissipation
in vehicle collision and crash outcome, is rarely considered in the
conventional studies on traffic conflict risk because it is limited
to the availability of required data. In this study, two novel risk
indicators (WRL and WIRL) that consider the vehicle weight are
proposed. The risk of potential traffic conflicts over a specified time
period is determined based on the comprehensive traffic character-
istic data collected using the WIM technique. In addition, the
Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Fig. 8. Traffic conflict risk map (TTC* of 2 seconds).

potential traffic conflicts risk map along a highway segment is (with respect to number of axles), vehicle weight, and vehicular
determined using a microscopic traffic simulation model based speed available, variations in the traffic flow level and traffic com-
on CA approach. Because of precise information on vehicle type position are considered in the temporal distributions of traffic

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Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Fig. 9. Traffic conflict risk map (TTC* of 4 seconds).

conflict risks based on TTC and the set of weight-based indicators, compared to the conventional risk indicator. More importantly,
respectively. Results indicate that the weight-based risk indicators WRL and WIRL are more sensitive to the changes in the traffic flow
(WRL and WIRL) are adhered to in the empirical evidence for the level and proportion of heavy vehicles (which are the major con-
assessment and visualization of the traffic conflict risk map, as tributors to severe crashes at the motorways) in the traffic stream,

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Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al. Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13

Table 5
Estimation results of traffic conflict risk.

(a) Overall
Scenario TTC*of 2 seconds TTC*of 4 seconds
Number of conflicts WIRL/ (MJs2 Þ Number of conflicts WIRL/ (MJs2 Þ
Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle %
1 4,920 573 11.6 31,568.0 4,081.7 12.9 12,317 573 5.1 4234.6 52,461.3 8.1
2 9,384 1,298 13.8 58,477.0 8,750.4 15.0 24,513 1491 6.1 9256.2 101808.8 9.1
3 13,547 2099 15.5 84,586.1 14,826.3 17.5 35,034 2408 6.9 15708.0 145880.1 10.8

(b) Upstream of the bottleneck (i.e., 1000 m2000 m) during 15.00–

15.59
Scenario TTC* of 2 seconds TTC* of 4 seconds
Number of conflicts WIRL/ (MJs Þ
2 Number of conflicts WIRL/(MJs2 Þ
Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle %
1 291 33 11.3 1,940.9 258.0 13.3 856 36 4.2 3,536.5 263.8 7.5
2 535 81 15.1 3,400.3 561.2 16.5 1,459 94 6.4 5,908.5 590.7 10.0
3 808 110 13.6 5,023.6 804.1 16.0 2,168 147 6.8 8,847.3 906.2 10.2
(c) Downstream of the bottleneck (i.e., 2000 m3000 m) during 15.00–
15.59
Scenario TTC* of 2 seconds TTC* of 4 seconds
Number of conflicts WIRL/ (MJs2 Þ Number of conflicts WIRL/ (MJs2 Þ
Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle % Overall >3-axle %
1 450 48 10.7 3,016.0 293.1 9.7 932 48 5.2 4,481.8 293.1 6.5
2 733 98 13.4 4,713.6 665.7 14.1 1,535 121 7.9 7,213.3 733.3 10.2
3 1,074 158 14.7 7,170.8 1,214.6 16.9 2,151 169 7.9 10,304.3 1,258.7 12.2

as compared to TTC (which vehicle weight is not considered). Find- Acknowledgements

ings are indicative to the design and development of emerging
vehicle control technology (including ADAS and CAVs) that can
modify the vehicle maneuvers and traffic control measures includ-
ing variable speed limit, dynamic message sign, and ramp meter-
ing; these are responsive to real-time traffic conditions and,
therefore, the operation and safety performances of expressways,
especially when freight logistic is playing an increasingly impor-
tant role in the multi-modal transportation system, which can be
improved in the long term.
Nevertheless, not only the traffic characteristics (i.e., traffic
density, headway, and vehicular speed), but also the road envi-
ronments and driver attributes can contribute to the conflict
risk. In this study, estimation of space–time distribution of traffic
conflict risk is limited to microscopic traffic simulation. It is cru-
cial to validate the assessment model based on revealed traffic
conflict data in a future study. Additionally, it is worth investi-
gating the intervention effect by the driving performance on
potential traffic conflict risk, when precise information on crash
data and vehicle trajectory are available. Furthermore, this study
is limited to the available traffic characteristic data at one speci-
fic location (that has WIM sensors) only. Sensitivity and speci-
ficity of the results of microscopic traffic simulation could have
been assessed when extensive traffic sensing data based on mul-
tiple data collections (e.g., video, wifi and Bluetooth) at different
locations along a long stretch of highway were available. Fur-
thermore, it is worth investigating the effect of real-time
weather conditions on the traffic conflict risk in the extended
study (Xing et al., 2019b).
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of
China (Grant Number: 2019YFE0108300), the Key Research Project
from Shanxi Transportation Holdings Group (Grant Number: 20-
JKKJ-1), and the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (Grant
Number: 25203717). The contents of this paper reflect the views
of the authors who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy
of the data presented herein.
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Y. Wang, H. Tu, N.N. Sze et al.
Ying Wang received the B.S. degree in transportation
engineering from Civil Aviation University of China,
Tianjin, China, in 2010 and the M.Eng. degree in trans-
portation engineering from Tongji University, Shanghai,
China, in 2014. She is currently working toward the Ph.
D. degree in transportation engineering from Tongji
University, Shanghai, China. Her research interests
include traffic flow theory, traffic safety risk assessment
and prediction.
Huizhao Tu received the B.S. degree in civil engineering
and M.Eng. degree in transportation engineering from
Tongji University, Shanghai, China, in 2000 and 2003. He
received the Ph.D. degree in transport and planning
from Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Nether-
lands, in 2008. Dr. Tu is a Professor with the School of
Transportation Engineering, Tongji University. His
research interests include travel behavior, traffic safety
and emergency traffic management. He is also the
reviewers of IEEE Conference on Intelligent Trans-
portation System, Transportation Research Record,
World Conference on Transport Research, International
Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability, etc.
Nang-ngai Sze obtained the B.S. degree in civil engi-
neering and the Ph.D. degree in transportation engi-
neering both from the University of Hong Kong. Dr. Sze
is an Assistant Professor with Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic
University. He specializes in accident analysis, injury
prevention, and applications of statistical methods. He
serves as the associate editor of Accident Analysis and
Prevention. He is also the editorial board members of
Safety Science, International Journal of Sustainable
Transportation, Journal of Safety Research and Analytic
Methods in Accident Research, etc.
13
Journal of Safety Research 80 (2022) 1–13
Hao Li received the B.Sc. degree in civil engineering
from Tongji University, Shanghai, China, and the M.Sc.
and Ph.D. degrees in transportation and planning from
Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
Dr. Li is a Professor with the School of Transportation
Engineering, Tongji University. Her main research
interests include transport network modeling, network
design, travel behavior under uncertainty, and network
reliability. She is also the reviewers of Journal of
Advanced Transportation, IEEE Conference on Intelli-
gent Transportation System, Transportation Research
Record, etc.
Xin Ruan received the the B.S. degree in civil engi-
neering, the M.Eng. and Ph.D. degrees in bridge and
tunnel engineering both from Tongji University,
Shanghai, China. His research interests include risk
assessment of bridge engineering, bridge load and
durability of bridge structure. Dr. Ruan is a Professor
with the School of Civil Engineering, Tongji University.
He serves as the chairman of International Association
for Bridge and Structural Engineering (Commission 6).
He is also the member of The American Society of Civil
Engineers, International Association for Bridge Mainte-
nance and Safety, The International Association for Life-
Cycle Civil Engineering etc.