Case Studies on Transport Policy 10 (2022) 278–286

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Case Studies on Transport Policy

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cstp

Traffic accident prediction model for rural highways in Pernambuco

Márcia R.O.B.C. Macedo a, b, Maria L.A. Maia a, Emília R. Kohlman Rabbani b, Oswaldo C.
C. Lima Neto a, Maurício Andrade a
a
Post-Graduate Program in Civil Engineering, UFPE, Pernambuco, Brazil
b
Post-Graduate Program in Civil Engineering, UPE, Pernambuco, Brazil

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Due to the need to update the current guidelines for highway design to focus on safety, this study sought to build
Traffic accidents an accident prediction model using a Geographic Information System (GIS) for single-lane rural highways, with a
Prediction models minimum of statistically significant variables, adequate to the Brazilian reality, and improve accident prediction
Transportation safety
for places with similar characteristics. This analysis was conducted on 215 km of single-lane road segments of
Rural highways
highway BR-232 in the State of Pernambuco. The development of a database made it possible to associate ac­
cident records for the period 2007 to 2016 from Federal Highway Police (PRF) data with the geometric pa­
rameters of the highway, obtained through geometric reconstruction of the vector data available at the National
Department of Transportation Infrastructure (DNIT) and the semi-automatic extraction of highways from satellite
imagery. The homogeneous segments were analyzed and classified by the Spatial method (Kernel-KDE density).
A Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model was estimated to model the frequency and severity of accidents.
The results indicate that increase in the slope and the radius impact the increase in the frequency of accidents and
the reduction of the severity of accidents in curves.

1. Introduction
According to the Statistical Yearbook of Highway Safety (2018), 52%
of federal highway traffic accidents occurred on single-lane rural high­
ways. Between the years 2010 and 2017, the number of deaths in Brazil
was reduced by an average of 25%. Despite this reduction, the Northeast
Region still concentrates the greatest number of federal highway deaths.
Of the total of 6,243 deaths registered on federal highways in 2017, 33%
(2,060) occurred in the Northeast Region, compared to 8% (499) in the
North, 12% (749) in the Central-West, 23% (1,435) in the South, and
24% (1,498) in the Southeast (DNIT, 2010).
Various factors, such as an increase in the number of vehicles, flaws
in roadway geometric design, driver attitude and age, type of vehicle,
etc. are responsible for the increase in the number and severity of traffic
accidents. Therefore, to mitigate the damage caused by accidents, it is
important to predict the number of accidents before they occur, helping
to prioritize control measures that can be adopted (Oliveira, 2016).
In this scenario, Accident Prediction Models (APMs) are important
tools capable of modeling the relevant factors of traffic accidents. They
are statistical models that relate the frequency of traffic accidents with
geometric and operational attributes of the road and help in recognizing
the true agents that cause accidents.
Although most highway accidents occur along straight stretches of
road, it is in the curves where accidents having the greatest severity
occur (Radimsky et al., 2016). Curves, particularly those that are hori­
zontal, concentrate 54% of fatal accidents on rural highways in Brazil
(DPRF, 2016).
Studies on the relationship between horizontal curve characteristics
and accident rates have been carried out in several countries. The
functions that describe the relationship between the radius of the hori­
zontal curves and the accident rate have been developed in countries
such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the United
States (Kiran et al., 2017). Other characteristics of horizontal curves that
have been studied include deflection angle, curve length, presence of
transition curves, super-elevation in curves, and distance from adjacent
curves.
Due to the severity of accidents in curves, a variety of horizontal
curve countermeasures have been the focus of many studies. Some of
these studies have analyzed the relationship between the horizontal
curve characteristics and the safety performance of the curve, including
design attributes (Strathman et al., 2001), such as signage and markings
(Lyles and Taylor, 2006; Charlton, 2007), as well as strategies to
improve curve safety (Mcgee and Hanscom, 2006; Elvik, 2013).
Existing rural highway models do not take into consideration the
impact of spatial relationships on the safety of horizontal curves and the
absence of a factor that characterizes the location may indicate that the
effect is not fully known or has simply not been quantified so far (Kiran
et al., 2017). Ignoring this factor has been the main cause of bias in the

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2021.12.009
Received 28 April 2020; Received in revised form 19 October 2021; Accepted 1 December 2021
Available online 20 December 2021
2213-624X/© 2021 World Conference on Transport Research Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M.R.O.B.C. Macedo et al.
estimation of APM parameters (AbdulhafedH, 2017). A possible solution
to this problem would be to incorporate spatial variables into these
models. This represents an opportunity to explore spatial considerations
as a consistent and widely accepted analysis strategy for individual
curve characteristics.
Most studies on curves involve traditional methods, in which the
variable under study is quantitative and has a normal multivariate dis­
tribution. However, accidents occur randomly over time. Therefore, the
Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) model is more suitable, because
it makes it possible to evaluate the potential interactions between var­
iables, and is capable of modeling databases with longitudinal, spatial,
or multilevel structures.
1.1. Development of APM in Brazil
About 70% of Brazilian highways were built in the 1960s and their
projects are on paper or digitized as PDF files (CNM, 2018). In this way,
road networks are designed without consideration of the dynamics of
accidents and their relationship with the geometric characteristics of the
roads (Abdulhafedh, 2017). Roads could be better designed and planned
with the use of geoprocessing and remote sensing techniques, based on
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and interpretation of satellite
images. The automatic or semi-automatic extraction of roads from sat­
ellite images may be the most convenient way to overcome the problem
of the lack of project documentation for road safety in Brazil (Macedo
et al., 2020).
Another limitation in the development of APMs is in the segmenta­
tion of stretches with similar geometric characteristics (homogeneous
stretches). This homogeneous division is necessary to establish the
spatial relationships between the accident and the place where it
occurred. In Brazil, the characterization between tangent and curve, for
example, is made based on visual inspection, which may cause errors in
the identification of straight and curved sections. In this case, the
attribution of an accident to a particular stretch of highway may be
incorrect. In order to avoid this, it is necessary to identify parameters
that correctly characterize the route.
In Brazil, the study of accident modeling is still incipient (Andriola,
2018). Some Brazilian cities have already made efforts to develop APM.
Among them are the cities of Fortaleza (Cunto et al., 2012), Brasília
(Claude, 2012) and Belo Horizonte (Costa and Barbosa, 2011). These
efforts have resulted in the proposal of specific models suited to the local
characteristics of these cities. This scarcity can be explained by the
difficulty inherent in the process of developing specific accident pre­
diction models. It is necessary to have a database with information on
the geometric and operational characteristics of roads over the years,
data on traffic volume, and a complete record of the accident history,
which are often not available in Brazil (OECD, 2016). Because of this,
transferring predictive models to regions other than the one where the
method was developed can be a less costly and more viable alternative
than the development of specific models for each location (Couto et al.,
2016). However, in the case of Brazil, the studies carried out by Silva
(2011) and Cunto et al. (2015) indicate that the transferability of Bra­
zilian road element models needs further investigation.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a model to assist in
the decision-making process on two-lane rural roads, allowing the ef­
fects of geometry on the occurrence of traffic accidents to be investi­
gated. This study uses a GIS to develop a database capable of associating
accident records with the geometric parameters of the highway, ob­
tained through a semi-automatic extraction process of roads from sat­
ellite images and/or vector bases and homogeneous segmentation of the
sections based on spatial characteristics.
To estimate the proposed model, data from accidents registered on
rural segments of two-lane highways in Pernambuco from 2006 to 2016
were used. According to Polders et al. (2015) and De Pauw et al. (2014),
speed has an effect on both the probability and severity of an accident.
However, for this study, the speed at the time of the accident will not be
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Case Studies on Transport Policy 10 (2022) 278–286
considered, because it is not available in the accident databases, making
it only possible to consider the design speed. The variables used were the
amount of traffic (VDMA), radius of the horizontal curve, grade, age
range, and day of the week (Macedo et al., 2021). A GEE model was
estimated to model the frequency and severity of accidents. The pre­
diction model developed can be used to assess the safety effects of the
geometric elements of highways and improve their geometric designs,
making it possible to select interventions in the road system to mitigate
the expected potential risks.
2. GIS-based accident prediction
The study methodology was developed using three principal steps:
(i) construction of a database from data collection and semi-automatic
extraction of highways from vector bases and/or satellite images, (ii)
homogeneous segmentation of highways, and (iii) accident frequency
modeling.
2.1. Database construction
The database stores information on the road network, the environ­
ment, and road safety factors, including traffic accidents and traffic
volume, which have been linked in order to combine the variables and
assist in homogeneous segmentation.
2.1.1. Data collection
The traffic accident data and information were collected for this
study through electronic spreadsheets obtained from the traffic accident
reports of the Federal Highway Police Department (DPRF), covering the
period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2016, for highway BR-
232, between km 141 and km 356. Road sections from the National
Transportation Plan (PNV) were obtained from DNIT (2016). These
sections of road have not undergone any constructive changes during
the period analyzed. Traffic volumes (AADT) were obtained from the
National Traffic Control Plan (PNCT), available at DNIT (2016) for the
years 2014, 2015, and 2016. For the previous years (2007 to 2013), the
AADT values were taken from the National Land Transportation Agency
(ANTT) Annual Report (ANTT, 2015).
2.1.2. Highway network digital processing
To acquire information on the stretches of the highway that did not
have a geometric design, the methodology developed by Macedo et al.
(2020) was used, which consists of the extraction of geometric charac­
teristics of roads from satellite images based on pattern classifiers. The
main steps of this approach are (1) detecting the road and (2) filtering
elements of interest and obtaining the road network. In this process, an
attempt was made to outline the principal road guideline (Fig. 1).
For the DNIT highways base, a semi-automated process developed by
Macedo et al. (2020) was chosen, involving the combination of: (1)
vertex reduction techniques using ArcMap’s ArcTool Box; (2) develop­
ment of an algorithm to identify curves in AutoCad Civil 3D; (3) visu­
alization of results using satellite images as a reference; and (4) creation
of an alignment in AutoCad Civil 3D.
2.2. Homogeneous segmentation
The roads and all associated information were divided into homo­
geneous segments in three different ways: two by the methodology
proposed by Highway Safety Manual - HSM (AASHTO, 2014) and
another based on kernel density (Table 1).
2.3. Statistical modeling
The proposed model is classified as a GEE model, which can be
interpreted as an extension of the Generalized Linear Models for panel
data and incorporates a variety of variables in addition to just traffic
M.R.O.B.C. Macedo et al.
Fig. 1. Methodology Applied to the Extraction of Geometric Road Features Based on the Optimum Path Forest Classifier.
Table 1
Homogeneous Segmentation Methods.
Segmentation Method
1 Based on HSM, segments are between intersections with a minimum
length of 160 m
2 Variation of the HSM method, with 50 m before and 50 m after
curves, avoiding short segments and minimizing the problem of
incorrect location of crashes
3 Division of segments based on Kernel density and all variables used
in the stepwise procedure are explanatory within each segment with
their original values
volumes. The initial function was proposed by Liang and Zeger (1986):
μi = β0 *(β1 X1i + β2 X2i + … + βn Xn ) + ε (1)
where:
μi = predicted annual rate of accidents; β0 , β1 , …, βn = regression
parameters; X1i , X2i , …, Xqi = the variables of interest
ε = specification error.
The choice of method is mainly due to the possibility of combining
quantitative and categorical variables, not only as dummy variables
(binary − 0 or 1), but as multinomial variables (having more than two
ordinal categorical variables). The dependent variable is of the count
type (number of accidents that occur in a given segment) and the linking
function is a negative binomial.
To adjust a generalized linear model, the vector (β) of parameter
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Case Studies on Transport Policy 10 (2022) 278–286
estimates was determined. These coefficients were estimated from the
observed data. In the analysis of variance, a Chi-square distribution with
5% significance was used. The variables that presented a contribution of
variance less than 1.96 were not included in the model.
In this study, the first step was to verify whether the estimated co­
efficients were significant, that is, whether there was a statistically sig­
nificant association between the explanatory variables and the response
variable. Wald’s chi-square statistical test was used to assess the
adherence of the accident distribution between the actual and predicted
data. The χ2calc value was obtained from experimental data, taking into
account both observed and expected values.
As this is an alternative hypothesis, in which the observed accident
frequencies are different from the predicted frequencies, there was a
need to verify the association between groups by comparing the calcu­
lated χ2 data with the tabulated χ2 data. The tabulated χ2 depends on
the number of degrees of freedom and the level of significance adopted.
The hypothesis that the model fits the data is rejected if the p-value
associated with the test statistic is less than the level of significance α.
Thus, for level of significance α, a decision is made by comparing the two
χ2 values:
If χ2 calculated ≥ χ2 tabulated → the model is rejected
If χ2 calculated ≤ χ2 tabulated → the model is accepted
The higher the χ2 value, the more significant the relationship be­
tween the dependent variable and the independent variable. The
quality-of-fit indications are based on the Wald Hypothesis Test values
in the different models. The Wald test is used to test the null hypothesis
that the estimated βj parameter is equal to zero.
Two statistical elements were considered for the analysis of the
quality of fit of each generated model: (1) the Quasi-likelihood
M.R.O.B.C. Macedo et al.
Information Criterion (QIC) and (2) the accumulated residuals test
(CURE Plot). According to this criterion, the best model is the one with
the lowest QIC value. It is desirable for the accumulated graph of the
residuals to oscillate near zero or between the two additional curves
formed by acceptable limits (±2ρ*) for the accumulated residuals.
To analyze the validation of the model, the Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) was used. RMSE is commonly used to express the accuracy of
numerical results with the advantage that RMSE presents error values in
the same dimensions as the analyzed variable.
3. Results and discussion
This section presents the results of the accident prediction model
calibration appropriate to the reality of rural single-lane highways in the
State of Pernambuco.
3.1. Case study
The scope of the study was a 215-km rural stretch of Highway BR-
232, in northeastern Brazil. The stretch is located between km 141
and km 356 and passes through the municipalities of São Caetano,
Pesqueira, Arcoverde, Cruzeiro do Nordeste, and Custódia (Fig. 2).
3.2. Accident database and highway network digital processing
To standardize the accident reports, an analysis was performed to
identify lack of data or inconsistencies in the information recorded in the
reports. Tables that did not present all the necessary information, such
as location, type, and date of the accident, were excluded from the
sample (Fig. 3).
A database was developed with ArcInfo software that obtained
detailed information from the study section. This was achieved using
geoprocessing tools to extract relevant attributes from the road align­
ment, spatial characteristics of the surroundings, and traffic flow, which
were then combined with the accident database. The accident data
included in the database contained all accidents registered during a
period of 10 years from January 2007 to December 2016.
The principal problem encountered initially was the segmentation of
the base curves received by DNIT. In the program used, AutoCad Civil
3D, a curve was classified as having multiple start and end points,
creating the appearance of several curves of variable length, which did
not reflect the reality of the location. The AutoCad Civil 3D MapClean
function was used to reduce the excessive number of vertices and the
IDCurva algorithm to identify the curve (Macedo et al., 2020). From this
reconstruction of the alignment and identification of the curves, a table
was created containing all of the curve information (radius, angle,
transition, deflection, curve degree, coordinates, length) and these were
exported to an Excel table.
Fig. 2. Study area.
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Case Studies on Transport Policy 10 (2022) 278–286
3.3. Homogeneous segmentation and calibration of the proposed model
3.3.1. Homogeneous segmentation
Segmentation 1 had a total of 200 stretches and segmentation 2,
using a variation of the HSM homogeneous segmentation, totaled 115
stretches (Fig. 4). For homogeneous segmentation using spatial criteria,
a Risk Index was created for the category variables considered. Ac­
cording to the characteristics presented in the literature and their
respective ranges, values were established ranging from 1 to 3, with 1
being low risk, 2 being medium risk, and 3 being high risk for accidents
(Table 2). The Kernel estimation technique was applied, based on the
index, to identify areas with the same spatial characteristics, as shown in
Fig. 4.
3.3.2. Digital highway network processing
The elaboration of the model began with the definition of the inde­
pendent variable to be considered for the estimation the average acci­
dent frequency on the segments (straight lines and curves) of the sample,
considering that the error distribution of the dependent variable is the
negative binomial. The exchangeable correlation matrix was adopted.
Two variations of the proposed GEE model were adjusted, with three
possibilities for homogeneous segmentation (1, 2, 3) for each model.
Table 3 shows the summary of estimated models table. When adding the
lane width and shoulder width variables, satisfactory results were not
obtained in either model, and the parameter associated with the vari­
ables was not statistically significant for α = 5%. The results of the
estimated parameters for variations 1 and 2 of the GEE model are shown
in Table 4 and Table 5. Differences in the sign of the coefficients may
indicate, depending on the segmentation, an opposite influence of the
variable on the expected number of accidents estimated by the model.
The selection of the work correlation matrix represents the intra-
individual dependence. A better structure should be sought using the
smallest Quasi Likelihood Under Independence Model Criterion (QIC) as
a criterion. The QIC values found by fitting models 1 and 2 with other
correlation matrices are shown in Table 6 and Table 7:
It can be seen that, according to the QIC parameter, the inter­
changeable correlation structure was the one that best fit the models
generated to the longitudinal data. With this correlation structure, it can
be said that the correlations between any two observations within a
group are constant. Adjusted segmentation 3 offered the best result for
all models, however, most parameters were not statistically significant
(p > 0.05).
The CURE Plot graphs of the models that were elaborated are shown
in Fig. 5. For both models 1 and 2, it is possible to observe that the
accumulated residuals curve oscillates around 0 and does not cross the
upper or lower limits, therefore, they are both considered acceptable.
The best accident prediction model is model 2, because it had the lowest
QIC value (600.30).
The results obtained from the validation show that the best model for
accident prediction is model 2, as the variation of the root mean square
error of the fit of the model (ΔRMSE) is closer to zero, with a value of
− 0.082 (Table 8).
M.R.O.B.C. Macedo et al. Case Studies on Transport Policy 10 (2022) 278–286

Fig. 3. Homogeneous segmentation 1 and 2.

Fig. 4. Homogenous segments with spatial criteria.

Table 2 Table 3
Table of estimated values for calculating the risk index. Summary of Estimated Models Table.
Variables Categories Estimated values Model Variable Distribution Correlation
Considered Structure
AADT ≤5500 vdp 1
Dong et al. (2015) >5500 vdp 2 1 AADT (categorical variables) Negative Exchangeable
Curve radius (m) ≤600 3 Length (coverable) Binomial
Cruz et al. (2017) 600–1500 2 Radius (coverable)
>1500 1 Grade (coverable)
Grade (%) Negative 3 Lane width (only for type 1 and
Anastasopoulos et al. (2012) Positive or zero 1 type 2 segmentation)
Segment length (m) ≤200 1 Shoulder width (only for type 1
Erdogan et al. (2008) 200–1000 2 and type 2 segmentation)
≥1000 3 Weekday (categorical variables)
Day of the week Weekday 1 Age group (categorical
Souza e Silva (2017) Weekend 2 variables)
Age range (years) 18–30 3 2 AADT (categorical variables) Negative Exchangeable
Mendonça, Silva e Castro (2017) 30–50 1 Length (coverable) Binomial
>50 2 Radius (coverable)
Grade (coverable)
Lane width (only for type 1 and
For Segmentation 1, the selected variables have larger standard er­ type 2 segmentation)
Shoulder width (only for type 1
rors than those selected for other segmentation approaches. This is
and type 2 segmentation)
probably because, on highways, homogeneous segments change only at
intersections, therefore, this segmentation approach can produce an
excessive number of segments with zero accidents and cannot be
modeled properly. μi = e(β0 +β1 AADT +β2 R+β3 Grade+β4 L+ε)
(2)
For Segmentation 2, the results were significant. However, they tend
to underestimate the number of accidents for low AADT values and where:
overestimate accidents for higher AADT values.
Initially, the segmentation giving the worst results, in terms of the μi = annual expected accident frequency
number of variables that can be included in the model, was that of β0 = intercept
segmentation 3, in which all variables are explanatory for each segment. β1 , β2 , β3 e β4 = parameters
Therefore, categories of variables were created, based on fixed value R = curve radius (m)
ranges, defined by trial and error, to improve the statistical power of the L = segment length (m)
model. Grade = grade (negative, positive, or zero)
The final GEE model was defined to consider the AADT, curve radius, ε = error term
segment length, and grade variables, as shown in equation (2):

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Table 4 The model effects of all independent variables are shown in Table 9.
Estimated parameters and ρ values of variation 1 of the GEE Model for different The variable categories have no absolute value and define the value of
segmentations. the parameter estimate (βn in column 3). The exponent of the estimated
Segmentation Segmentation Segmentation Segmentation parameter (eβn in column 5) can be interpreted as a form of relative risk
1 2 3 3 (adjusted) value for any declared variable category. In Table 7, it can be seen that
Intercept − 3.820 6.240 6.392 5.030 curves with a radius less than or equal to 600 m have an accident risk 3.2
(<0.0001) (0.0003) (<0.0001) (<0.0001) times higher than curves with radius greater than 2,200 m (relatively
1.6127 1.9789 1.3723 1.4557 straight). Also, downhill road sections have a probability of collision 1.6
AADT − 0.96 (0.230) 0.028(0.0233) 1.4003 0.520 (0.230)
times greater than uphill or level road sections. Downhill stretches with
0.1577 0.04422 (<0.0001) 0.1341
0.1198 tangents greater than 1000 m, followed by curves, have an accident risk
L − 0.475 0.326 (0.200) 0.702 0.736 (0.977) 2.2 times greater than level stretches.
(0.227) 0.9718 (<0.0001) 0.0133 Equation (2) was solved for all variable categories in the model. The
0.0455 0.0278 average value of the accident rate with victims in curved sections per
Radius − 0.011 0.280 (0.941) 0.211 0.008 (0.402)
(0.0054) 1.2216 (0.0003) 0.0105
kilometer was low: 0.048.
0.0189 0.0122 For better data visualization, a color code was applied: green rep­
Lane 0.1423 (0.00 1.8788 resenting an expected value of accidents with victims below the sample
width 10) (0.0172) average (less than 1.0), yellow representing scenarios with risk between
0.1245 0.0123
the average and double the average (between 1 and 2), orange repre­
Shoulder 1.049 1.164
width (0.0749) (0.0500) senting scenarios in which the risk is two to three times the average
0.1522 1.1156 value (2 and 3), and red representing an extreme risk condition in which
Day of the 0 0 0 0 the predicted collision value was more than three times the sample
Week − 0.249 0.383 0.710(0.524) 0.670 (0.678) average. Table 10 shows changes in the predicted level of accident risk
Age 0.314 0.172 0.967 (0.730) 0.227 (0.200)
in curves based on the predicted value.
Group − 0.120 0.024 0.172 (0.908) − 0.340
0 0 0 (0.814) Calibration was performed by dividing the actual total value and the
0 calculated estimated value. The value obtained was 2.35 for Segmen­
Grade − 0.060 0.0342 − 0.3320 0.320 (0.527) tation 1 and 1.75 for Segmentation 3.
(0.0015) (<0.0001) (0.0001) 0.0322
0.1756 0.2716 0.1595
QIC 19427.12 3247.23 2474.16 971.43 4. Conclusion
Number of observations in the database = 428
Brazil ranks fifth among countries in deaths from traffic accidents,
according to the United Nations. To reduce this number, effective road
Table 5
safety management actions are needed, which depend on many factors
Estimated parameters and ρ values of variation 2 of the GEE Model for different associated with accidents and the places where they occur. For this, the
segmentations. geometric road base is absolutely indispensable. However, most Bra­
zilian municipalities do not have accurate maps. This reality is even
Segmentation Segmentation Segmentation Segmentation
1 2 3 3 (adjusted) worse in the Brazilian Northeast and in rural areas, due to the difficulty
of access and the high cost of mapping using traditional methods or the
Intercept − 15.2239 8.1931 − 15.2277 − 17.2512
(<0.0001) (0.0003) (<0.0001) (<0.0001)
use of high-resolution satellite images. The lack of accurate data often
1.7233 1.5799 1.9456 1.032 prevents the use of consolidated international methodologies to analyze
AADT 1.3072 0.7289 9 1.4003 1.3997 safety and propose improvements that can contribute significantly to the
(<0.0001) (0.0233) (<0.0001) (<0.0001) effective reduction of traffic accidents and the reduction of mapping
0.9978 1.241 1.092 0.0255
costs.
L − 0.232 0.328 (0.118) 0.211 1.472
(0.328) 0.3421 (0.0003) (<0.0001) The structuring of the database with GIS was done to better under­
0.0022 0.4467 0.0023 stand the influence of the geometric characteristics of the road (hori­
Radius 508.331 − 931.75 0.2111 284.2822 zontal curve) on traffic safety on rural single-lane highways using an
(0.0054) (0.0273) (0.0003) (0.0037) accident prediction methodology.
0.0342 0.0122 0.0342 0.0112
Lane 0.1423 (0.00 1.8788
When comparing the results of homogeneous segmentation between
width 10) (0.0172) the Kernel map approaches and the HSM statistical methods, the results
0.0342 0.9711 are consistent. This was expected, as both methods work with the
Shoulder 3.1423 (0.00 − 3.0280 average severity for each accident. The Kernel estimator was less com­
width 10) (0.0500)
plex, with fewer steps to perform to obtain results, however, it had a
0.0034 0.0017
Grade 0.0076 0.0342 − 0.3320 0.0041 greater sensitivity to input data, with precise spatial location being an
(0.0015) (<0.0001) (<0.0001) (0.0008) essential condition for good results. The structuring of the database, the
0.0678 0.0774 0.0227 0.0129 automation of the process, and its visual response facilitated the inter­
QIC 4226.10 2321.33 5310.22 600.30 pretation of the results.
Number of observations in the database = 428
Fixed-length segmentation (Segmentation 1) can be the most flexible
in practical applications because the length of the segment can be

Table 6
QIC values to fit model 1 with other correlation structures.
Segmentation 1 Segmentation 2 Segmentation 3 Segmentation 3 (adjusted)

Exchangeable 19427.12 3247.23 2474.16 971.43

Independent 22319.77 3441.29 2929.17 797.99
AR(1) 24212.67 3835.33 3003.22 1098.22
Non-Structured 24832.02 3913.88 3567.19 2756.34

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Table 7
QIC values to fit model 2 with other correlation structures.
Segmentation 1 Segmentation 2 Segmentation 3 Segmentation 3 (adjusted)

Exchangeable 4226.10 2321.33 5310.22 600.30

Independent 4231.70 4428.22 5397.27 1736.97
AR(1) 6969.90 8885.72 6211.12 1798.72
Non-Structured 9444.12 9144.90 6474.16 2224.18

Fig. 5. CURE Plot for model 1 (left) and model 2 (right).

Table 8 Table 10
Validation parameters of the models. Changes in the expected accident risk level on curves.
Models Validation Fit ΔRMSE Curve Radius (m) Grade (%) Segment Length (m) AADT (vpd)

Average RMSE RMSE ≤5500 >5500

1 0.807 0.973 1.101 − 0.082 ≤600 Negative <200 2.69 3.25

2 0.843 1.156 1.168 − 0.112 200–1000 1.53 1.85
>1000 2.71 3.28
≤600 Positive <200 1.09 1.33
200–1000 0.62 0.75
Table 9 >1000 1.10 1.34
Estimated parameters and effects of the log-linear negative GEE-binomial pre­ 600–1500 Negative <200 1.29 1.56
dictive model. 200–1000 0.73 0.89
>1000 1.30 1.57
Variable Categories (βn)* Estimated (eβn) Statistical Positive <200 0.52 0.64
error ** significance 200–1000 0.30 0.36
parameter (Wald Test) >1000 0.53 0.64
Intercept − 3.820 6.240 6.392 5.030 p ≤ 0.001 >1500 Negative <200 0.61 0.74
AADT ≤5500 − 0.605 0.134 0.546 200–1000 0.35 0.42
>5500 0.000 - 1.000 >1000 0.62 0.75
Radius ≤600 1.163 0.314 3.200 p ≤ 0.001 Positive <200 0.25 0.30
(m) 600–1500 0.539 0.203 1.716 p ≤ 0.01 200–1000 0.14 0.17
>1500 - >1000 0.25 0.31
0.000 - 1.000
Grade (%) Negative 0.470 0.428 1.600 p ≤ 0.05
Positive or 0.000 - 1.000 - This model can be used to provide information for future revisions of
zero the curve parameter selection guidelines, based on the principal road
Segment 0.423 0.501 1.527 p ≤ 0.001
≤200
design parameters and available in the Brazilian database. The modeling
length 200–1000 0.930 0.167 1.213 p ≤ 0.05
≥1000 results can be used for curve selection, based on the reduction of the
0.788 0.144 2.200 p ≤ 0.01 accident risk in curves.
The study produced clear indicators of the design parameters for
* Estimated Parameter.
* Exponent of estimated parameter.
highways that influence the safety performance of rural highways. The
exponents of the parameter estimates were statistically significant at p
≤ 0.1 and the majority were significant at p ≤ 0.05. Although the ac­
determined by the availability and quality of the data. However, the best
cident rate on curves per kilometer was low, the model highlights the
results were obtained using Segmentation 3 (adjusted), based on Kernel
severity of accidents on those stretches. It was concluded that radii be­
density for fixed ranges of variable values. This proves the fact that very
tween 600 and 1500 m should be preferred in all scenarios for new road
short segments can cause non-perfect identification of accident locations
designs to reduce the frequency of accidents in curves because of the
and a large number of segments with zero accidents, which compromises
lower risk levels. The results also show long stretches of negative grade
the use of traditional statistical models.
followed by curves with radii smaller than 600 m is the scenario that
Statistical modeling resulted in a statistically significant accident
offers the greatest accident risk. If highways with curves of radius less
prediction model for curves, based on several key road design variables.
than 600 m were converted into highways with radii greater than 600 m,
The model highlights the need for wider curves on undivided rural roads
accidents with victims would decrease by about 18%. Roads with radii
and quantifies the reduction in collision risk that can be expected for
smaller than 600 m and with negative grade would have a reduction of
incremental increases in the radii of the curves.

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M.R.O.B.C. Macedo et al.
27%.
One of the advantages of this model was to take the temporal trend
into consideration. In general, the analysis period depends on the
availability of traffic data and accident data, but in the literature,
numerous studies have shown that periods longer than five years can
introduce bias into the mathematical model for spatial variables, linked
to the location in the network and/or the trend of natural time. The GEE
procedure incorporates the time trend; therefore, it is suitable for
modeling data over long periods.
The carrying out of this study made it possible to verify that the rural
roads of the State of Pernambuco are still 3.3 times more prone to fatal
accidents than urban roads. Approximately 58% of fatal road accidents
occur in horizontal curves, according to visual inspection when filling
out the accident reports, meaning that the actual number may be higher.
The analysis presented represents an important step towards the
revision of curve design guidelines. An approach to the design of curves
based on the management of accident results may involve the definition
of an increase in the radii values and in the transition sections to
improve accident safety in curves.
In conclusion, according to international experience, there are many
more variables that can be used to calibrate sophisticated models, which
have their own advantages and disadvantages. A crash prediction model
with more variables can help to better understand how these factors
describe and influence road safety. However, including too many vari­
ables in a model can make it unstable and prone to poor performance
when applied to a new sample. This study achieved its goal by creating a
simpler model that helps improve road safety management.
It can be considered as a starting point for carrying out similar ac­
tions and more detailed studies for other categories of roads and other
variables. New models that include AADT and speed as offset variables
should be considered. Future studies intend to expand the area of
analysis and apply the methodology to other regions with characteristics
similar to those of the Brazilian Northeast and even to other developing
countries, not to test the transferability of the model, but in order to
adjust the model and variables of interest to be applicable at the regional
level and subsequently at the national level.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
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Márcia Rejane Oliveira Barros Carvalho Macedo Majored in Cartografic Engineering at
the Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (2004) and Civil Engineering , obtained a
Master’s degree in Geodetic Sciences and Geoinformation Technologies at the Uni­
versidade Federal de Pernambuco (2007) and Doctorate in Civil Engineering at the Uni­
versidade Federal de Pernambuco (2020). She was an Assistent professor in the
Department of Civil Engineering at the Federal University of Vale do São Francisco (2011-
2013) and currently as an Adjunct Professor II of the Civil Engineering Department at the
University of Pernambuco (UPE). Has acted, at UPE, as Coordinator of the Civil Engi­
neering Graduate (2016-2019), Vice Leader the research group Safe and Sustainable
Development of UPE registered at CNPq, Mobility Coordinator at ARI/POLI and also a
reviewer for the Journal of Electronic Imaging and Revista de Engenharia e Pesquisa
Aplicada.. She has experience in GIS and remote sensing and the Civil Engineering area,
with emphasis in transportation and safety and Geometric Road Design.
Maria Leonor Alves Maia Majored in Architecture at Universidade Federal de Pernam­
buco (1985), obtained a Master’s degree in Urban Development Planning at University
College London (1991) and PhD in Urban Development Planning also at University College
London (1996), UK. Concluded in 2009 a post-doctoral internship in Urban Development
Planning at Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, UK, focusing on urban
sustainable mobility. Full professor at Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, currently
holds a productivity scholarship from CNPq. Maria is member of RESET Network for
studies in Engineering and Socioeconomics in Transportation, a research and consultancy
group composed by scholars from many institutions, and a member of RedPGV Ibero-
american Network of Studies in Trip Generation, formed by 26 universities from 9
different countries. Experienced in the area of Urban Planning, focusing on Transportation
and Land Use, acting mainly on the following themes: urban planning, accessibility,
transportation, urban mobility and urban management. Since 2012 holds the Director of
International Relations position at Universidade Federal de Pernambuco.
Emilia Rahnemay Kohlman Rabbani Emilia Rahnemay Kohlman Rabbani has finished
her Pos-doctorate work in Civil Engineering at the University of Minho (2011-2012),
Doctorate in Civil Engineering at the University of Pittsburgh (2000), Master’s in Civil and
Environmental Engineering at the University of Pittsburgh (1998), Bachelor’s Degree in
Civil Engineering from the Federal University of Paraíba (1996), and her Bachelor’s De­
gree in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of Pittsburgh (1995). She
has worked as a Traffic Engineer at Midwest Research Institute in Kansas City, MO on a
team of researchers in the area of transportation safety (2000-2002). She was an Assistent
professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the Federal University of Sergipe
(2003-2005) and was hired as an Adjunct Professor of the Civil Engineering Department at
the University of Pernambuco (UPE) in 2006, where she obtained her Tenuer in 2009 and
was promoted to Associate Professor in 2011. Has acted, at UPE, as Head of the Graduate
Division at the Polytechnic School of Pernambuco (2009-2010), Coordinator of the Civil
Engineering Master’s Program (2010-2011) and Leader of the Ergonomics and Occupa­
tional Safety and Health research group (2008-2011). She has also acted as Visiting
Scholar at Technion - Israel Institute of Technology (2011-2012) and at the Construction
Department of Colorado State University (since 2013), USA. Presently she acts as the
representative of the Associate professors at the Academic Administration Council at POLI,
as the Cultural Section Manager of POLI, coordinates the research group Safe and Sus­
tainable Development of UPE registered at CNPq and teaches at the undergraduate level
and at the Master’s level in Civil Engineering at the same university. She has experience in
the Civil Engineering area, with emphasis in transportation and safety, and occupational
health and safety applied to sustainable construction.
Maurício Oliveira de Andrade Civil Engineer (UFPE-1978), Master in Civil Engineering -
Transport (UFPE-2006) and Doctor in Civil Engineering - Transport (UFPE-2012). Pro­
fessor at the Polytechnic School of Pernambuco (UPE-2007 to 2009) in the subjects of
Roads 1, 2 and Rigid Pavements; Assistant Professor at UFPE - CAA (2010 to Feb / 2013) in
the subjects of Roads 1, 2, Topography 1 and 2 and Transport Topics (Planning) and
Adjunct Professor at the Center for Technology and Geosciences (CTG) at UFPE (March /
M.R.O.B.C. Macedo et al.
2013 the current one), teaching the subjects of Infrastructure Management, Roads and
Transport 1 and 2, Transport Topics (Geography of Transport Systems), Economic Engi­
neering, Urban Transport in Civil Engineering and Transport and Regional Development,
Urban Infrastructure Management, Transport Economics and Economic Methods in the
Post-Graduation in Civil Engineering. He has 30 years of experience in the engineering
consultancy area (1979 to 2009), with an emphasis on Transport Engineering, working
mainly in urban planning, road systems and transport and without detailing road and
urban road projects. Superintendent of Infrastructure at UFPE from October 2012 to
October 2015.
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Case Studies on Transport Policy 10 (2022) 278–286
Oswaldo Cavalcanti da Costa Lima Neto Graduation at Civil Engineering from Uni­
versidade Federal de Pernambuco (1972), master’s at Civil Engineering from Pontifícia
Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (1975) and doctorate at Engenharia Civil
Transportes from RWTHA Aachen University (1982), acting on the following subjects:
mobilidade urbana, gestão de transporte público, planejamento de transporte urbano,
transporte público and planejamento de transporte público.